Trov

We are one month into the season. Brooks Lee has been hitting better, but still not a good defender at SS, most likely needs to get moved to either 2nd or 3rd long term. Culpepper down in AAA is holding his own, but not crushing. However, if he is a better defender than Lee. With Keaschall struggling hitting, and having options I could see maybe sending him down for Culpepper and shifting Lee over to 2nd if Keaschall does not improve soon. In terms of OF, Wallner continues to struggle this year. He is negative value right now. He has struggled like this in past and bounced back, but he is not doing anything right now. Meanwhile, E-Rod is crushing in AAA. I could see Wallner getting sent down as he still has an option for E-Rod if this continues.

The article highlights what is a frustration I have had with player development for years. In particular for hitters. You draft or trade for a player because of something you like about them. Then you go ahead and tell them we want to change everything that has made you successful, because there might be a better way to go. As pointed out, Buck was coached different ways and despite cursing the minors when he got up to MLB level they kept changing his swing and he was in his head so much all the time. When he finally said enough, I am going to do me, he took off. Martin similar, we traded for him, and right away said all that stuff that made you the top 5 pick scrap that, we want you to become more aggressive at the plate, and try to be more of a HR hitter. He was the good player and said okay lets try it your way coaches, and it failed. When he was on his last chance, he said I am going to do what I know, and he is showing his way that he did all his life, maybe is working for him. Lee, he is a little different story, as I do not think the Twins did much to tinker with him, but he has needed to make some adjustments over the years. I feel like sometimes coaches feel like they need to get a player to make adjustments before we learn if it is needed. You see issues that may get exploited and then say we need to fix this issue that will be an issue in future. Only, it may not be an issue in the future, and you create bigger problems

I like the write up talking about how trades are more than a simple comparison of numbers by the players, but context in those trades are important too. Of course when Gil had his good year or so, fans were upset the deal was made, but the years he spent in the minors the Twins got some value out of the deal and the Yankees got none. If Gil bounces back and show he can be a good starter again, it does not mean the deal was bad for the Twins. We have no clue if Gil would have ended up doing the same for the Twins either. One old deal that people bring up, that really highlights the context of the trade idea is John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander trade in 1987. Detroit sent Smoltz to Atlanta for Alexander. Alexander was amazing for Detroit going 9-0 with 1.53 ERA. Smoltz went on to HOF and helped the Braves dominate the 90's in the NL. At the time Smoltz was not a top rated pitcher had been a 22nd round pick out of high school and really not dominating the minors when he was traded by Detroit. At the time many thought Atlanta blew the deal, but history says Detroit got fleeced. However, Detroit got what they wanted help to win the division, only to lose to the Twins in the playoffs. We do not know if Smoltz would have developed the same way with Detroit though than with Atlanta.

E-rod is looking like he will be the first called up from the OF down there. He is on the 40 man, and doing his thing in AAA. He has an OPS .945. He is getting on-base at high clip, hitting for power. I hope he keeps it up to try to force a move. But first OF that goes down with injury E-Rod will come up I am sure.

This happens to all players that were once considered great defender, people think they are always a great defender and do not look at the fact that they lose defense as they get older. We also see some of the great catches, HR robbed or diving or wall crashing catches, we forget the little "routine" catch of a could be single is more common chance to make the difference. He still is the best CF we have on the roster, but assuming Jenkins can defend CF better, he should take it over and move Buck to a corner spot in the future.

International signed players are always a lottery ticket. Outside of Asia, the players are 16 or 17 generally, assuming that they are not lying. Some pan out, some do not. Even the ones that are ranked super high never make it, and ones that are ranked much lower do. They are open to the highest bidder, now with cap on spending kind of, but still you never know how they will grow and develop. I could point out many international classes and point out many flops by many teams. I could point to even one of Twins biggest years was the Sano, Kepler, Polanco year. Sano was the prize of the signing, but provided the least value overall of the three. Polanco and Kepler each have career 20 war, Sano capped out at 8.

Quick could be someone if the team needed a pen guy later in year he could move up quickly enough to do that, assuming they have on innings limit and has not reached it by then.

The pen and defense was the downfall, we will hear this a lot this year. We knew going into the season our defense was going to be bad. We have subpar defenders at just about every position. Buck is still good in CF but losing a step and not elite defender anymore. Outside of him the OF are all below average. SS well below average defense there. 3B maybe average at best. 2B below average. 1B Clemons grades out above average, but rest are well below average. Cather we are fine there, but across the board we have terrible range, terrible jumps, outside of a few, terrible arms. Most guys are on team, in their spots because of offense. We will need the offense to carry. The pen is filled with below average guys, and the couple of above average guys cannot pitch every day. We will need some to step up or convert some of our AAA starters to pen guys this year if we want to really compete.

He does have 1 year left of options. He is dealing with sore ribs thanks to a 95 MPH fastball to them. That cannot be easy to hit when your core muscle is bruised.

This happens to every guy that comes up and rakes to start, outside a very few. They come up, get a heavy does of fastballs by pitchers, they crush them, so then pitchers start throwing the off speed stuff to see if the kids adjust. Eventually they do. However, so often it gets in their head. They think they will never get a good fastball to hit again and start guessing up at the plate. They swing at any off speed pitch in the zone thinking it will be the only pitch in the zone. They chase fastballs out of the zone thinking it is the only fastball they get. They get in their head. Now he needs to figure out how he is being pitched to, and adjust. The film room is where he needs to start. The book is out on him now, he needs to rewrite it.

He is the exact opposite of Culpepper profile. Culpepper was drafted because of bat, not glove and was expected to move off of SS due to lack of glove. However, last year reports were Culpepper glove was playing fine enough to stick at SS. Houston was that his glove would play at SS, but his bat was going to be the issue. Early results for Houston was not good last year, but early this year is that maybe he made adjustments this off-season and paying off, or just SSS, time will tell. If his glove is elite and he can be even average hitter he will get many years at MLB level. He would push Culpepper to different position, or team possibly. It will depend on how far off the gloves are and the bats. It will be nice to see Houston hitting better than expected and climb up the minors. You can never have too many SS in your system.

The people that like to, point to 1 thing, similar media market size. They ignore all the other differences, like competition of other sports as mentioned. They use that one fact and that is all they need because everything else does not support their argument.

I would not say that because the Padres spent as much as they did it was what lead to the huge sale. Did it help to keep the fans coming, most likely. I will agree when the owner spends big to try to win the fans see they care, which helps. However, this is not the only reason for the huge value. We will never know, but the Padres were hundreds of million in debt as well, mostly to pay the players because they did not have enough cash on had to pay them, so they had to take loans to do it. The owners made out better in the end clearly, but I doubt the Twins would have got the same price tag. I believe the "Tailgate Park" that the Padres own has a lot to do with it. It is a 1.25 billion dollar development near the stadium that has apartments going in, parking ramp, retail and office space as well. So a nice non baseball revenue flow that will make money year round. The Twins lack any kind of real estate around the field to sell with their team. If you take the 1.25 billion value of that spot, now the purchase still out paces the Twins offers, but much closer. You can say it was all the roster spending, but that real estate I am sure was a huge factor for the much larger price.

My post was not about being an attack on Waller, just pointing out his current situation as he is struggling. My post also is premised on the AAA pushing the MLB players, just as you pointed out. They are not going to call any of them up most likely unless they are pushing the issue, or injuries. My question was what would need to happen to get them up, and of course they would need to push the hand of the MLB club. I also was not advocating for demoting Wallner, I was pointing out, he would be an option for that without losing, but Larnach would be going away most likely if you wanted to send him down. Wallner can be optioned without passing waivers.

I agree if someone comes up for Outman he would not have to assume his roll, but outside of Roden it is not likely they would call someone up to be a bench guy, again outside of injury. Meaning that as you pointed out Wallner would have to step back to be the bench guy more. I would agree, if Clemons gets booted, Bell could play 1B more and have someone like Gonzales DH more, or slot Wallner/Larnach there more. That is another route than what I talked about.

We all know injuries will happen and that normally opens spots for AAA guys to come up. But outside of injuries, what will need to happen to get one of the 5 hitters in AAA that hopefully will try to force their way onto the roster? The five guys I am talking about are Jenkins, E-Rod, Gonzales, Roden, and Culpepper. Both Jenkins and Culpepper are not on the 40 man. Culpepper is the only infielder of the group too. So we already have a log jam even in AAA for playing time in the OF as only 3 of the 4 can play out there and the 4th normally DH's and they rotate around. Culpepper is mostly playing SS and some 3rd. In regards to Culpepper, I think his path is easier, without injury to someone, because only Lee is blocking is playing time. Yes, we have Grey in there for SS, but he is not going to be the one stopping Culpepper if he is crushing in AAA, it will be Lee. Lewis could be the one that loses playing to Culpepper as well, but his history of possibly being a star will give him longer rope. Lee has been hot recently at the plate, but his defense is subpar at SS, and unless you are an elite hitter, which his career is not that, then you are double hurting yourself by having him at SS. If Lee does not become and elite hitter, or at minimum pick up his defense, his time as starter will be cut short if Culpepper, an assumed better defender than Lee, crushes in AAA. The OF guys it is a much harder path. Specifically because 3 hit left handed, and Gonzales the righty is considered a poor defender. Additionally, at the MLB level, they are pretty set in what they are doing. Buck in CF, and if he is not there he will play one of the corner OF spot. Wallner is getting all the starts and seems to be the number 2 OF, despite his early struggles at plate. Larnach and Martin are platooning in LF and it is working very well so far. Outman is the 5th guy out there, but he only replaces Buck when they want to rest him, or late inning running or defense. In terms of possible DH at bats those have been mostly Bell who has shared 1st with Cartini and Clemons. So how does one of the guys down in AAA get a shot without injuries? Some might say send Outman down as he does nothing on offense. Except for other than Roden, the team is not wasting service time on a late inning replacement guy. They could do it with Roden, and maybe that is his path. Larnach and Martin both crushing and out of options it will take a bit to drop them, as they would need to be offered up on waivers. Also, Martin is right handed so unlikely they would want to take him away for anyone other than Gonzales. The most clear path would be sending down Wallner, he has 1 option year left, and he is not doing well at the plate. I know it is great to have his power threat in the line up, but he is an OPS of .629 right now. If that continues for too long and there are guys in AAA that are possibly better defenders and more consistent hitters, that is the clearest path right now. This is because other than Roden, any call up of the other guys will be to play every day. If Larnach drops off a ton, then he would be next to look at DFA, but being how much he is getting paid it will need to be a huge drop off in my opinion or a clear super hitting AAA guy to make that move happen. Most likely injuries will force the moves first, but if not, I could see Culpepper forcing Lee out of starting spot, but he will either need to show above average defense with average offense or above average offense with average defense to really force the hand right now. Lee is on thin ice though. As for the OF, Roden could take Outman roll, and start to push Wallner for playing time sooner than the other 3 guys. If any of the other 3 are pushing for time at big league it will be for Wallner's spot as a starter, or Larnach most likely.

I agree in part with spending again, when you dumped the CC money. However, as a mid-market team, spending just to spend is not always the best. That is how some FA in the past started getting these bloated deals that ended up being terrible because they were the best FA out there and the teams had money to spend. If it is a single season okay that is fine, as they will not carry the profits from one year as a possible deficit the next, but signing a free agent to a multiyear deal, just to do it, does not make sense either. Spending the money the right way is good, but spending because you have it does not make sense some times. Not defending the lack of looking to bring in some pen arms this year, they should have.

I think there are a few reasons for the change from last couple years. One, the runs being scored early for the Twins make it easier to allow a starter to stay out there and work through some hard innings, something I am a fan of as well. Two, our best pitchers are our starters and we have a weak pen, on paper at least, and you cannot lean on them night after night. The last 2 years, our pen was considered a strong pen, with 3 or 4 guys that you could count on 1 inning each of good pitching. That made it easier to go tot he pen early because you could patch it together easier. Now, not so much. There is also a difference in Shelton and Rocco. Rocco looked at the analytics and always made decisions based on them, and rarely looked at the game situation, in my opinion. He would say well pitcher may be only at 80 pitches, but he pitched 5 innings no runs and went through rotation full 2 times already, and it is a close game, so I need to pull the starter because the hitters will have an increased likelihood of getting a hit. I also want the pen guy to start an inning because the decreases the chance of runs being scored too. So add it all up, pull the starter now. Rocco would managed like a math guy, saying this move gives me 2% more chance of winning game based on history, so lets make it. Shelton seems a little more old school, even going out to talk to a starter who had runners on with 2 outs and left him in to get out of the inning. Rocco would have never. Time will tell if Shelton continues his ways and if he wins or if it starts blowing up in his face.

I some what agree, as his first appearance was bad, and first start was not good either. However, I would disagree with saying his second start did not line up with metrics. First, you cannot compare metrics over a single start, as the advanced metrics is used over many outings to get a more true picture of what the pitcher is doing. If you do that in a single game they will never fully line up, unless like you said it is a game like his last start where he was dominate. Sure, in his start against Detroit, he was one hit away in the first few innings of giving up big numbers possibly, but he got strike outs and got out of those innings without giving up runs. That is the point of the metrics, because in a single game maybe luck of a good catch or wind knocking a ball down will help but the expectation is across several games that evens out. Clearly if he starts each inning with 2 on nobody out, eventually he will start giving up big innings, but he did work out in that game, and overall the game was a good game for him.

I fully agree, people were upset with our three top pen arms being dealt, all of which would have been back this year, and a couple next year. The issue with that is a pen arm has much less value than a starter, just based on innings pitched. So far this year, maybe just maybe 1 game would have been different with those three guys in our pen, but then you need to remember we would have had different starters so may just maybe we lose a couple more as well.

We all know most of the fans were upset with the full sell off last year, keeping only a couple of valued controllable players. Rumors that Buck would have been part of it had he wanted to as well. Really, it was a sell off of rental arms with only a year or two of control left. The highlight trades were dumping CC contract for a discount of what they had to pay, no real return. Duran for Abel and Tait. Jax for Bradley. Varland and France for Roden and Rojas. Not going to list all the minor trades of guys that had no years of control and were not in plans beyond last year anyways, like Stewart, Coulombe, Bader, and others that if you get any value from return it will be a plus. Many were upset at Duran, Jax, and Varland, and Varland seemed to upset most due to years of control. So what will it take to say it worked for the Twins? First, we have no clue if the pitchers sent out would pitch the same with the Twins as they are for their current teams. We also have no clue if we would have retained beyond their FA years. What we do know is that the guys in return will have longer control. It will be years before we see any return from Tait, and will not know until long time from now. However, Abel, Bradley, Rojas, and Roden are all at or near MLB level. Rojas was injured, but had a decent first start back. All three pitchers all could pitch for the MLB team this year and next year, barring trades and injuries. So what will it take to be considered good? Right now Bradly first three starts is Cy Young level. Abel had rough start to season, piggy back on Ober first appearance and first start, but last two has been good to great. Even if we do not consider what others are doing, Jax is struggling, Duran has been great(not that we would have needed him yet to make a difference), and Varland has been great too, just giving up 1 unearned run. Of course if the guys in return fall on their face it will be terrible, but so far the results are good. I think getting average starting from them will be considered a win, and if any of them can flirt with all-star or cy young votes it will be a huge success.

There is a flaw in this whole study. First, you are more likely to have a left handed hitting corner OF than any other position. One is because some right handed people will learn to hit left handed, but rarely does a left handed person learn to hit just right handed. Also, the only defensive positions for left handed throwers are 1st base and OF. Left handed hitting people from other positions are always going to be the right handed guy hitting left. That being said, the issue with most fans is not that we have so many left handed hitting outfielders, it is that we have too many that are redundant and out of options, that go along with 2 of our top hitting prospects fitting the same roll in AAA. We have Wallner, who is clearly the top of the pecking order for team as he is not getting platooned, mainly because we do not have a platoon option for both him and Larnach. Then we have Larnach as the next option, this is shown by getting all starts against righties. Now this may be due to production, which is high right now, or could be due to fact we are paying what we are. Then it is hard to say who falls next on the pecking order because we have Outman, who fills a different roll than Larnach. He made team over Roden, who I would say most likely ranks ahead of Outman, but below Larnach. Clemons is on the list only because he has played a little OF, but mainly on team to play 1st against right handed guys. Jenkins and E-Rod fall below, not because of talent but because they do not need to be called up yet. E-Rod is on the 40 man and using options so he could get called up over Roden, Outman, or Larnach at any time, but he has yet to push the team to make that move. The issue I have is we have too many guy either near end of options, or blocking possible better guys because of what they are getting paid or lack of options. I do expect that if there is an injury to Wallner or Larnach, Roden gets the call and the starts over Outman, and he keeps doing his same roll of fill in, legit 4th/5th OF guy. E-Rod would be next in line.

The hitting approach should not change, unless the pitcher change their plan of attack. A few years ago the Twins did the swing early, and then pitchers adjusted and threw junk up on pitch 1. So if the pitchers start doing that you need to take those. If the team is getting better at not chasing, and not swinging at pitchers pitches, that is a good thing. There is nothing wrong with taking a pitch in the zone if it is not a pitch you will do much with. The only exception is with 2 strikes if you can waste the pitch, that is good. Else, you should sit on a pitch and location generally and if that is not the one, take it.

My hypothetical point was there are times, a guy that will get a single at higher rates has more value than a power guy. Yes, there are times you will want the power guy over the single hitter, but my point was having all of one type, regardless of type, is not a good way to build a line up. I was not saying one is always better than the other. I also agree that there are times you would rather have a better arm in case you need to cut down a run, never said Martin was better than Wallner, just comparing the type of hitters they are. In terms of trying to add power in the minors, no fault there of Twins either. If you can add power but still have good results then great, but clearly it did not help him. Martin will never be a super star, but having a guy that can get on base a ton is always going to be good for a team.

Do we need to bring up a right handed bat to beat lefties? I mean we have done pretty well recently against some top lefties in the league. I would be fine with Fedko over Clemons, if that is a route they like, but Martin is holding the right handed OF spot down right now, and Larnach has been fine when he plays against right handed pitchers. I would not take Fedko for Outman because Outman can play CF. If Outman is done, Rodan should get his spot.