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Everything posted by Trov

  1. There is a big difference if a throw is not needed, versus a knowing a throw cannot be made. For example, few run on Buck unless they know he cannot make the throw because he is known for a strong arm. However, if you know the guy has an arm issue and cannot make throws, you will run more on them. If you ask the infield group to come further out for relays that affects many other things as well.
  2. You contradict yourself by saying Archer should be in a long relief roll, but then say he should replace the innings of guys that are not long relief roll right now. Do you want Archer to just be in long relief roll, or do you want him in single inning roll like Cotton and Pagan generally get? Sometimes Cotton goes 2 but Pagan is almost always 1 inning.
  3. Are you saying of the names listed they are off limits too? I have a feeling depending on the team, and the player we are trying to bring in, some of the young guys you list on the roster right now may be required to go. One should also be concerned in 2 to 3 years as well on what the team will look like if you trade away all the guys looking to make debuts in 2 to 3 years. Yes, we can worry about that time when it comes, but a good FO thinks about the now, and the future. If you sell all your future for the now, even if it pays off with a flag flying, the FO normally gets the boot when they reap what they sew in the years to follow when you do not have a good team to field.
  4. No team has gone deep in the playoffs for 20 years without an ace and strong number two? Really, no team? First, do you mean an established ace, or someone who pitched like an ace in the playoffs? The reason I ask that is of course if a team has someone pitch like an ace in the playoffs they will go deep, because you are looking at the results, but I am sure you can find plenty of teams that went deep in last 20 years without an established ace on their roster. Does having one help, sure does, but is it a requirement nope not at all. Also having one does not mean you will win either, just increases chances. Please tell me the ace from 2002 Angels. Please tell me the ace from the 2003 Marllins. Please tell me the ace on the 2007 Rockies, they lost in WS. How about last year's Braves? I know there is plenty more, those are just a few. I am sure if you look at the actual runs you will find good performances in the playoffs, but I am asking going into the playoffs. I would argue we have an ace and strong number 2 as well. Gray is pitching like an ace and Ryan a strong number 2. Also, we had guys in past pitching like ace and strong number 2 but did nothing.
  5. I want to make clear, I was not advocating for doing nothing, but was pointing out that people say we should do something for the reason we cannot beat the Yankees. I fully support making small pen moves. In terms of Montas and Casitllo, we would need to sign to extensions to have them in our system beyond next year. About 80 to 90 percent of long term extensions of SP rarely work out well for the team. Not just the FA signings, but I could put on a huge list of guys that were traded for that did not work out well in long term. Again, I agree our pen needs improving overall, but I see no point in blowing up our farm system for high end SP or even high end pen arms, but doing smaller moves for pen guys I would fully support. I was mainly pointing out though that people say we need to make moves because we will not win in the playoffs as is, but I point out we will not be the favorite even if we do, so if the reason for the move is because as built we will not win, why make a move if we still will not win? Yes, a move will increase our chances some, and I am not saying not making any moves, but is there any move that you will feel like we no will win, or just say we are better?
  6. You can adjust the roster and still looking to improve the team. We always think of the team as either competing or rebuilding. You say you cannot trade away established guys if you are "buying" and cannot being in established guys if you are "selling" but there is a third option of moving extra pieces of depth to fill holes, even if they are on the major league roster. Cleveland a couple of times traded away their top starters during the year to fill holes they had and still planed and still did compete overall. They did not go into full sell mode. Trading away Garver was not a sell move it was trade from depth move to fill a SS hole. Then when Yankees came knocking and there was still SS out there to try and sign, they freeded up Donaldson's contract to go after a SS. The FO makes moves and do not get married to moves made. They are willing to pivot quickly depending on the situation and the offers. You need to look at all the moves made, not each one made in a vacuum.
  7. For the people that are not happy with the return, we need to remember what the other options where. We do not know what other teams had offers last year, if any. We do not know what we could have got during this offseason, if we had looked. I can say had we waited for this trade deadline we would be lucky to someone to take his contract based on what he is doing right now. Maybe neither Martin or SWR work out, but we have no clue if anyone would have, and so far the Jays are looking like they have a bad 7 year contract on their hands.
  8. SWR is only 21 at AA, which 3.6 years younger than the average age at AA. Just because he was drafted out of high school does not mean he is not young, it means he is fat into he years of development, but that is why high school guys do not need to be on 40 man until after year 5 where college guys after year 3, because the age is factored into it. College guys have more years to grow and develop than a high school kid does. You can say he is far into his years in pro ball, but to say he is not young for the league just goes against facts. He normally pitches against guys older than him, that is just a fact.
  9. I think we all agree the team is not the best, but has a good chance to make playoffs even as is. Maybe they falter and either Cleveland or Chicago go on a run, but as built we have been in competition for playoff spot. Now, many say, well who cares we will not win the playoffs as built and need 'x' to win. Okay, lets assume that is true, the logic says we cannot win with current team, mainly because Yankees will beat us. So that brings up the question, if we make some trades, would we be in a position to beat the Yankees? What would it cost to do that? So to me the logic suggests we do not make any major trades, a pen pitcher or two may be worth it for low level prospects, but big splash trades will still put us behind the Yankees on paper. So why blow up our farm system to increase our chances a tiny bit? I mean even if we go out and get Montas and Castillo, best two available starting pitchers in trade market, to increase our chances a couple of percentage points? I am not saying we should try to improve the team, but if the reason we feel we need to make a move is because the Yankees are better, is there any deals out there that after we say, now we are better than Yankees? I doubt it. So if you make the deal to try and get better than them, but you cannot, why make the deal? I would much rather make smaller pen moves then big splashes.
  10. You list the rank in the AL, but for example we have no CF that is ranked, so how many players are even ranked on the list and where do we compare to them?
  11. Maybe "hate" him was a little strong, but hate on him, would be a better way of putting it. Arraez has always had the, "yeah but" kind of approach, where someone like Kepler has got the "but if" kind of treatment. It may not be just to Arraez that many would say yeah he hits well, but x,y,z, I am sure others get that treatment, but I have felt since he first came up he polarized fans in their thoughts on him. Does he have his flaws, he sure does, but most players have flaws.
  12. I fully agree, the game is supposed to be entertaining, which normally requires action. Sure when a pitcher is on the verge of history striking out a ton of guys and just dominate, it can be exciting, but I would much rather see guys hitting the ball in play, running bases and plays at the plate, than a few solo shots.
  13. Jeff Passons had an article about Luis Arraez today. It talks about how Rod Carew and Ichiro, two of all time greatest hitters, think Arraez is best left handed hitter today. It goes on to talk about how Arraez has been doubted his whole career because everyone talked about what he was not, but never looked at what he was, being an elite hitter. We here at TD have been very divided on Arraez since he first came up in 2019. Most either loved or hated him. I have been on the love side of things. Those that hated him would talk about his lack of defense, lack of power, lack of speed, and would try to claim his BABIP was not sustainable. Those that loved him would point out that the man can hit, and although it is mostly for singles, they still count. For the lack of defense, that is true his is subpar on defense without a true home, but he could always DH if you needed. Lack of power, is accurate he has not been a HR hitter, but power is generally down, and he is working on the power, read the article, and he has had a few HR lately with a few deep drives. Will he ever be a 30 HR guy, no but he still keeps the OF honest. Lack of speed, yes he is not a speed guy, but his not a full station to station guy either. The BABIP has basically remained the same the whole time of his career. Slight dip last year, but over his career still .350 plus. He rarely strikes out, and is walking slightly more. He is hitting over .300 on pitches outside the zone, that is just crazy. Some thought he was lucky with weak contact when he came up, but I argue he was just hitting the ball where the defense was not. He is so fun watch hit. Not only does he talk to himself, do dances when he fouls balls off, he hits solid line drives so often. He is just getting into his prime and the sky is the limit for him. There is a place in baseball for him and I am glad he is on our team. Lets stop wishing he is more than what he is, and be happy he is what he is. We could send out guys that get out at much higher rates, but may hit a HR once in awhile. He swings the bat like it is a magic wand. He is a master at what he does, and instead of attacking for what he lacks, just enjoy the show he makes. Similar to Joe Mauer, people want more from him, and not willing to take what they have, an elite hitter and on base guy. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34156388/ichiro-rod-carew-favorite-player-how-luis-arraez-making-batting-average-cool-again
  14. I have not watched the man pitch. I have never been a fan of FIP as any kind of measure for relief pitchers overall. This is because it will jump so much based on so little innings pitched. He may keep the ball the in the park and have decent K to BB numbers, but he clearly is giving up a ton of hits. His WHIP is nearly 2, which is crazy for a relief guy. He is giving up career high line drives percentage. Sure they are staying in the field and he has a good bb to K ratio, but giving up line drives at 39% clip is not good. The k's are at a much higher rate than his career has shown too, is that sustainable? He has a career high hard hit percentage at 40%, career low of fly ball percentage at 8.1 percent, but below career average of ground ball percentage, at 41%. So he is giving up hard hit line drives for hits. Is that bad luck and bad defense? Maybe some bad luck, but the key to getting a hit is line drives and hitting it hard generally. I would argue he is not getting to unlucky, but guys are teeing off early in counts. Sure if they go deep he gets the K, but he is giving up hits in bunches, and they are not soft ground balls that find holes. This is a hard pass for me.
  15. I would agree the contract would most likely look like what the article writes, but I also would not extend him now. Pick up his option, if he maintains into next year then look to extend 2 to 3 years if he wants. Sonny Gray has struck me as a guy that is not seeking the top contract but where he plays is important. I think he brings more to the team than just a pitch though, as he has been around and seems to have helped some of the younger guys. I still would not want to dole out a rotation spot and big money for a guy that at any point could fall off the cliff. Now, I doubt he will because he has never been a high velo guy but has been a true pitcher so I expect he will age well, but you still never know.
  16. If you want to compare a guy to someone who pitched in the 40's why not bring up the fact that Cy Young used to pitch almost every other day and would throw 9 innings a game. Pitchers are not like they were before. They throw harder, put more stress on body than they did before. Just look at the average fastball numbers over the years. Archer fastball is average now, but in the 40's I bet he would have had one of the fastest pitches in baseball. I remember when I first really started watching baseball in the mid-90's and a 94 to 95 fastball was considered elite, now it is average. Now unless you throw 99 plus your fastball is not considered top velo. I do not understand when people try to compare pitchers now to decades ago.
  17. I think it depends on how you measure overall health. For example, if a player has a 2 week stint on IL, is that a huge deal? If that 2 weeks help prevent a 2 month stint? We do not know how many longer term injuries are being prevented with the rest and shorter IL stints. No matter the path some will have longer injuries, but unless they scrap the resting method, we will not know which is the better path, and never will know if we went with the reverse if that was the better option.
  18. I enjoyed reading the debate, overall well put together so far. I think part of the issue is the two different eras and the different parks. One points out Puckett had huge home road splits, but Joe played in era where HR's were up overall. If you want to look at just on field numbers, Joe may have the edge, but if you want say look at the impact on the team, Puckett in a landslide. He was the Twins, and he had the personality to lead. Joe is not a leader, and never wanted to be the leader. The team looked at him to be the guy because of his skill and pay, but he never wanted to be that guy. Joe was a great player and should go to HOF like Puckett. But Puckett understood as the number 3 guy his job was to drive in runs, not just get on base. Joe was the type of guy that he would take a strike right down the middle with a runner on 3rd and 1 out and eventually take a walk, only to have the next guy hit into double play not scoring a run. Puckett would do what he could to get ball in play to drive in the run. They had nearly as many at-bats with RISP, but Puckett drove in over 150 runs more. That is because he wanted the run to score, Joe just did not want to make an out. The old saying, Puckett played to win the game, Joe played to no lose it. I remember one time Joe had tying run on second base, 2 outs. Joe tried to bunt for a hit because the 3rd baseman was way back. It did not work. I was not upset about trying to bunt for hits, I had a problem that he was trying to bunt for a hit when a single to OF would most likely tie the game. Had Joe got his hit, he would raise his OBP with RISP, but not drive in the run, but he passed the buck to the next guy to drive in the run. Puck would have tried to get the hit to drive in the run no matter where the 3rd baseman was playing. I loved Joe, and defended him many times, but if we are in Game 7 and I had pick between Joe or Puckett be in my lineup, understanding they played different positions, I pick Puckett every time, but he would tell the team jump on my back I got you, Joe would say, "who is going to step up for me?" Joe is the type of guy you want on your team when you have guys like Puckett around him. I am not bashing on Joe, but just pointing out I think Puck was the better player to have on your team, but if you want to look at pure numbers, and the fact Joe did it as a catcher, which is crazy numbers, then yeah he did better.
  19. Not sure if there is a link, it was during the game on Sunday he put on headset for half an inning. It may be somewhere. A quick search did not help me. I personally was expecting him to say that he would love the ball more and pitch more, but he said no he was happy with how Rocco was pulling him because he is getting back to full health after missing 2 full years basically with injuries. He kind of hinted that he was worried he would pitch too much and lead to more issues.
  20. I said game one. I agree what he is giving us he would be a decent game 2 or 3 type where you know you are only getting 5 good innings and rest pen game. Game 1 we are hoping they can go a good 6 or more.
  21. I would challenge your last claim that NO team would trade MLB pitching that would take on Correa. If you recall a few years ago Cleveland traded away their top starting pitcher for offense. They were so deep in pitching they knew they could give up one of them at the top of their value for a win now player. I would agree it is rare and unlikely, but pretty sure Yankees could afford to give up one of their guys, you only need 4 in the playoffs and they run 5 deep right now. Not saying we should trade with them, but pointing some teams would be willing to part with MLB ready starters.
  22. Not going through all the comments, but read he will be making over double for LSU over Twins. Read Twins asked what they could do, and matching or breaking the LSU number did not come up. My guess Wes always liked college ball, which is very different than MLB overall, and did not want to pass on the money.
  23. Is he really an improvement? Maybe for Seattle, but based on his current season he would not play a game over just about anyone we put out there at DH or 1B. He is slashing .216/.349/.690 with 4 HR in 212 PA. He is walking at a high rate and not striking out.
  24. I know he does not become FA until after next year, but Angles will be looking at extension or possible trade this deadline or off-season. I am wondering what his contract looks like. He is in such a rare situation because no one is like him. He both pitches and hits, and does both at or near elite level. If he was just the top hitter he could demand some big bucks, although limited by his defense, which may just be because not wanting to risk injury in the field, so he might be better on defense, he still could demand 9 figures alone. If he was just a starting pitcher, he could demand 9 figures most likely hitting FA as a 28 year old, being 29 the first year of his contract he still could get a 5 to 6 year contract as a pitcher. However, the fact that if he regresses as one roll, he could be transitioned out of that roll to just do the other. If he still maintains his level of play though he is by far the most valuable player in my opinion. I think in terms of yearly value he should break the record by far. He may not break the record for total because I doubt a team will give the length needed to make that happen, but I could see something 6 years at 265 or 7 at 300 to 310. That would be the highest per year, more than Scherzer is, but would not be highest total. I am not a fan of long term deals for pitchers, but he is more than a pitcher and even if he loses something pitching wise if he maintains hitting levels he will still be worth nearly that by end of contract.
  25. I know too little about all of these guys to make an informed comment. I have read that Jace Jung is the bat first field later college bat we have been known to target some times. I am opposed to that, as we have too many in our system right now. I am always fans of college SS later in first round as they generally are good athletes and can play most positions even if they cannot stick SS long term. No matter the pick I will do what I always do, wait and see. You should always take best available and never worry about need, because other than a few select college pitchers just about no one makes debut for about 2 to 5 years depending on age at draft.
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