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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. I do not know the specifics of the contracts offered, but reports are they have extended various offers ranging 8 to 10 years. Boras does not have his clients sign quickly too often and will wait to talk to all teams around the winter meetings is my guess. Even if CC would be willing to accept any of the offers made already, Boras will tell him to hold off and try to get more by using other teams to try and increase. He tries to do this all time. Even when there is only 1 team really willing to pay, like with JD Martinez years ago. Boston made offer, and no other team really was willing to be close, but Boras kept saying other teams had interest, to try and get Boston to bid against themselfs.
  2. For runners on 2nd overall, Joe has the edge, in similar PA, difference of 6, Joe had 170 RBI, to Puckett 143. If you look at just runner on first, Joe was way behind, in part Puckett had many more HR. Puckett had about 50 more RBI, with 22 more HR, which being you get 2 per those types of HR, that almost makes the difference. If you look at 2 outs and runner on 2nd, Joe has edge even more over Puckett. Overall as I said, they had very similar chances to drive in runs, and Puckett had the edge, in part because he took less walks in those cases. I would have to do much more of a deep dive as to how that may have affected the inning. My main point I was making is some guys will more reliable overall to drive in runs over a career and not just up to opportunities.
  3. I am not against the move, but he will not be a high target for teams. He is coming off very bad season, where even against the righties he would be asked to hit mostly against, he hit .205/.280/.314. Not exactly a slash line you want as a platoon. That is only a little better than Jeffers career splits against RHP. I would think the Twins will look for other options for platoon first before settling.
  4. The main thing to push back on is that Cardenas was a college kid and in his first full year of pro ball this year. The catcher we got from Dodgers was international kid that have been in pro ball for many years and actually is rule 5 available. Cardenas did put similar numbers at 19 at UCLA. Also, the catcher you point to in AA, which is more of hitter league than low A, had OBP of .306, Cardenas had OBP of .421. Yes, Camargo, had a bit higher slugging overall, but that is a huge difference in OBP. Sure Camargo may have a little more power, but he is either HR or out, and he struck out 33% about with K to walk ration of 66 to 13, if you go by full minor league season it is 107 to 20. Cardenas walked 73 times only struck out 70. I will take the guy that walks more than strikes out, because the guy that strikes out 5 to 1, and 33% in minors most likely will be much worse at majors.
  5. I want to take a moment to talk about the RBI stat. Many all in analytic people point to it and say it is dumb stat as does not reflect real value. In a short stint I would say okay. You know the whole drove in x runs in x games is not a huge deal, the player got hot when runners were on. However, over the length of a career it does tell a story. That story is they know how to drive in runs. The only way you win a baseball game is scoring runs. People forget hitters get pitched different in different situations. When we look at a full season, or career of stats, we can compare strike outs, walks, HR, slugging, OPS. and all the stats people love to point to for "real" value, and leave out how often they had chances to drive in a run. Some guys hit about the same with RISP, or runners on base, where others do worse. I feel very few do better. I want to compare two all time greats, completely different style hitters for the Twins. Mauer and Puckett. Both played similar amount of games, similar bWAR of 55. for Mauer, and bWar of 51 for Puckett. Over their careers Mauer had 2107 PA with RISP. Puckett had 2146 PA with RISP, so pretty similar amount of PA over the years. If you want to break down to runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, Mauer had 479 and Puckett had 530, a little bit more for Puckett in his career but not crazy amount. In the runner on 3rd less than 2 outs, Joe had 311 RBI, Puckett had 383, which is to be expected a little bit with the extra 51 PA, but still extra 72 RBI. They hit very similar slashes. When you look at 3rd and 2 outs though, Mauer had 370 PA and Puckett had 343, but Mauer had 153 RBI and Puckett had 162, which means Puckett more often drove in the run percentage wise with 2 outs than Joe did. It does not break down how often runners were on other bases in those situations so that could affect it. Puckett did hit 5 more HR, but the big difference is Puckett took much less walks, trying to drive in the run, where Joe, would take over twice as many walks. Again, they are 2 different types of hitters, and Puckett would expand zone all the time, and Joe would take a fastball down the pipe half the time. Both had amazing careers, and with the small difference in power, Puckett hitting 64 more HR over career, than Mauer that could account for the near 150 more RBI over career, but when you look at run scoring situations, Puckett was trying to drive in the run more often with approach, where Joe was just not wanting to get out. Not saying either was better way to play, but point is, the difference in RBI when you look at full career was not just chances. They had similar amount of similar chances, Joe even more with 2 outs, but Puckett produced a higher number of RBI in those situations. In conclusion, RBI does not tell a full story, but when you look deeper, it can show if a guy is more prone to drive in runs in similar situations compared to others. So when people dismiss RBI as a meaningless stat, maybe look deeper.
  6. I fully agree with the article, and have long talked about this. Every year I see fans call for spending big on guys like Ray, or others. There are very few pitchers into their 30's that live up to their long term deals. Many fall off after the first or second year, for various reasons. Some barely even make first year. There are a few guys that pitch at high level into late 30's, and they are all HOF bound. The majority not only fall off production, but fall off the cliff. There are a few that manage to come back and learn how to pitch differently, Bartolo Colon, is one of recent that comes to mind. He was never, amazing, but was up there. He fell off in his 30's only to come back in late 30's early 40's to have 4 good seasons. Nothing amazing, but compared to what he had been doing they were very good. I have faith the FO will not get into a bad contract on a starter. They may be in on Rodon, but it may be for a 3 to 4 year deal at higher per year, where other teams will be more willing to give the 5 to 7 with opt out after like 2 to 3 years. I doubt Twins agree to anything beyond 4, they have yet to be willing to do that. I doubt they get to point where they just throw money out there to make it look like they are making moves. If you are going to go big, you do it for CC, not Rodon, I have always said, I am all for spending big on a starter over 3 years, but not willing to go 5 plus because of how quickly you get negative returns, but you keep throwing them out there to pitch because they earn too much to cut or move to pen, even if numbers show they should be.
  7. This is a make or break year for Alex I think. I wish they would have done the wrist surgery they did this last year, the year prior. I mean the bone did not grow in that year, I am assuming, so if you knew it could be an issue why not fix it all in one? I guess I am no doctor but unless he can have a healthy strong wrist, he will never be what we want.
  8. I can see why Cardenas was overlooked. He was 8th round pick. He had a great freshman season in college, but then lost 2020, and drop off in 2021 by a bit compared to 2019. In 2022 with us, he looked more like his 2019 college version. It will be interesting to see if he regresses like in college, or maybe the off year affected him a lot more than we would have liked. He also hit more HR in Low A than his whole college career, so he was not known for power coming out. His college numbers were mostly built on his ability to walk, and get hit by pitches. Unless his power continues to build, I could see him as one of those pesky long at bat walker kind of guy at the bottom of the order. If he can defend well enough, that should be fine for a good backup fringe starter, but if he can build some power, then he could be a clear starter.
  9. I did not see option 4, he gets traded before the season starts, similar to last year when we traded for a SS, only to trade him and sign CC.
  10. It will be interesting to see how high he jumps in prospect lists. He looked like he was set to fly up the list and make his way to AA before his injury. Twins have some good hitting prospects coming up, as long as they can translate to MLB and play some defense we will not have a lot of holes to fill.
  11. The game is always about adjustments, the best players make them quickly. If teams continue to pitch him off the plate, he will just have to adjust to planning for that and leaving anything away, or looking to hit those to RF. Then teams will adjust and pitch him different again, and he will need to figure that out.
  12. He will get a 1 year deal by some team that needs a bat. He may be a big star in a new place. He has always had the ability but never panned out here. I am sure a team will take a shot at him.
  13. No offense to Farmer, but if he has any major contribution to our team next year, we will not be in playoffs.
  14. I love following trade trees like this. Not bad for a guy who played 1 season for Giants and was going to sit behind Joe.
  15. I am not big on him for a long term deal. He has shown a couple of good seasons recently, but has long history of injury, and it took him a long time to pitch at a high level in MLB. He was expected to hit the ground running with Sox, and they did not even give him a QO. Very few pitchers pitch well into their mid-30's and many drop off early 30's with increased injuries. Sure, you can point to future hall of famers as guys that pitched well into their late 30's, but for every one of them there are dozens of guys like Mad bum, David Price, Chris Sale, (who pitched well when healthy but has not been healthy much). Maybe because it took him several years to figure out the MLB level he will do fine in 30's, but I am not willing to break bank on a guy that could be on IL much of it, and or lose production. I would be fine with a 3 year deal with vesting options based on innings pitched, but no 5 plus year deal.
  16. I am not an insider in the Twins organization, so I will defer to their call on Casey Legumina, but I am assuming Sisk will get taken in rule 5 as he is near MLB ready, pen guy, lefty. If he is not taken in rule 5 I will be shocked. That being said, there must be some reason the team, who passes like 5 pen guys through waivers every year, did not see a need to add him to 40 man.
  17. The way Julien is playing Polonco may be out of a job soon. Martin can play OF, and Arraez can play DH or 1B, he was up for gold glove. I am sure pitchers would not look forward to Martin lead off, Julien in the 2 or 3 with Luis the other. The pitch counts could go up a ton, or you just throw it over and hope they hit it at someone.
  18. I would not say no to any of them, if the price is right. I would not seek anyone out to be a closer paid like one, but if we can get one for a reasonable price, maybe Rodgers on a prove it deal, then why not.
  19. He is only a disappointment because he never reached the heights we all expected. He started out hot, and we expected him to grow from there. The issue was he never adjusted, did not take his career all that serious, and slowly became a disappointment. I feel we could have treated him better, the RF experiment was a waste for him. Every time we expected a breakout he would have a huge slump. He just never learned to drive the ball the other way, like Carerra was amazing at. He had the power to crush the outside pitch over the wall, but always tried to pull everything. He became the ultimate 3 out come guy, and personally, they bore me as players.
  20. If the price is right I am fine with brining him back, but it should be on a very cheap 1 year contract.
  21. I hope both are playing with the Twins in the near future and we can debate who is the better player because both are doing great. As for prospect, I think it is very close. I would give the nod to who defends better, and Lewis looked like he could stick at SS in the short sample I saw. Lee may be able to as well, there have been some bigger SS in history that did just fine.
  22. I am not anti analytics, but just as I was upset that Gardy never used it, I feel Rocco, and company, fall to it as all decisions seem to stem from it. Here is the thing, every time a coach makes a move, it will be questioned if it does not work out. If it does, it will normally be praised, and if it is not under the normal type of moves it will get praised even more. The one thing I always try to remind people of analytics looks at hundreds of thousands to millions of situations over history, and never look at the situation at the time. For example, the historical of scoring 1 run with a run with a runner on first with 0 out is 18.7% with runner on 2nd and 1 out is 25.1%. So bunting seems to be supported here to try and get more runs. However, the analytic people then point to the chance of scoring more than 1 is lowered. So by bunting a guy to 2nd may increase the chance of 1 run, but actually decreases the chance of more than 1 run. So the analytics people say bunting is a negative thing and rarely do it. Because you would be more willing to do it when 1 run will win the game. However, if you never practice it, now you are doing things you do not do. Also, there are times where making sure you get a run will make a difference. Looking at individual game situations are still important. In terms of shifts I think people give them too much credit. You still have 7 defenders, catcher and pitcher need to start where they do, but the other 7 get to move, or did, and need to defend the same overall area. Teams took data to see where a guy was more likely to hit a ball and try to defend that area. When it "stole" a hit we all were like ugh the shift, but when the hitter hit a hole where a non shift would have made the out we would point out how the shift did not work out that time. It was all relative, and moving defenders around the field was never new, it just got highlighted when 2nd basemen were playing in short right and SS on other side of base. As the saying always went, just it it where they are not defending.
  23. Position players rarely get taken in rule 5, mainly because they cannot hide them like they can a pitcher. Pitchers can get hidden in the pen and only pitch in blow outs, if they are not ready for MLB level, but hitters will only go to teams that are not trying to win. Julien would get taken if we do not add him so he will for sure. I think Sisk will get taken by a team. This is also a time to try and sneak guys through waivers as teams are adding guys to their own 40 man rosters, and passing others through. So do not be surprised if some of our other pitchers are DFA. Really, you just have to decide which pitchers you would rather have on the team.
  24. Relief pitcher, and prospect rarely go together. Unless there is a worry about injury, very few minor league relief guys make it to majors. They need to be super dominate, or left handed. That is why Sisk is the only one as a relief guy I would say is a prospect. As stated Ronny Henriquez was a stater, and most likely will try to get slated back into that roll, but if he fails to as a starter he could be a decent pen guy, but most of the best pen guys, started in the minors and failed as a starter in majors, or were moved because of worry of injury or lack of pitch mix at majors.
  25. I would not give him anything more than 2 years. Not normally a fan of any relief guy past 2 years, normally like the 1 year deals for relief guys in FA. They fall off the cliff so quickly sometimes, and very few teams want to trade for relief guys under contracts and prefer the rental guys.
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