Trov

When James Outman made the 26 man roster, over Rodan people were a little shocked. Rodan clearly had more upside. Outman had a good rookie year, but outside that has been below replacement level player. We have so many outfield prospects down in the minors, if you include Rodan, we have 4 or 5 in AAA, but 3 are hurt right now. Outman has been downright terrible at the plate the year. He has 4 hits in 33 AB, and an OPS+ of -2. I really did not know it could go negative. So why do I say a prospect will not replace him? It is simple, the roll he is filling will not be filled by a prospect. He is a pinch runner and defensive replacement late in games. He is not amazing at either, in my opinion, but he is better defender than the starting corner guys, and he is 4 for 4 on stolen bases. All that being said, because of his very limited roll, you will not send him down for a prospect to take his roll. If you call up any of the outfielders from AAA it will be to get them to actually start and play regular time. Outman is worse than most likely any of them as a hitter. But that is not why he is up at MLB level. Now, it is very possible that Outman gets DFA for one of the prospects if they want to move Wallner into bench roll, but Wallner does not fill the same holes that Outman does. Outman may be less valuable than Henry Rowengartner at the plate, but that is not why he is up at MLB level. He is here for the very limited roll he is filling. You do not waste prospects times on that roll. Teams can build a 26 man roster with the best 13 hitters, or they can have 1 guy that is just simply there to help with defense or running at end of games. It used to be when rosters were 25 men, you never had a guy like that, well at least when teams moved to 12 or 13 man pitching staffs in early 2000s. We did have Chip Hale in early 90's, specifically in 1996, his sole roll was to pinch hit. He had 3 games where he started, but played in 85 games, getting 98 plate appearances. I always thought it was crazy for an AL team to have a pinch hitting specialist, but that is what he was. Point is, you do not take the last guy on the bench, the guy that you use for just very limited things, and swap him for a prospect. You do not call up prospects to sit on bench and never play. If any prospect comes up, odds are it will be at expense of Wallner at this point, and Outman will continue to do what he is doing. Sitting until inning 7+ to run or play defense for someone.

Okay, so I get we are in last place, 5 games below .500, but to say this is quickly becoming a lost season is a little pessimistic. We are 2.5 games out of first place, and 1.5 out of a wild card. One hot week we will be in first place in our very weak division. The season is far from lost. Do I have much hope with the bullpen no, and our free agents have been negative impacts, injuries to our top prospects in AAA have soured hope they would come up and provide offense help. However, the season is still not lost. Check back in June maybe the story will be different.

Yeah he reminds me of his uncle for sure. The swing looks a ton like Delmon, and neither Delmon or Demitri could field. However, if the kid learns to make solid contact he will have a place in the league. He has had a hot stretch, but that K-Rate is beyond terrible, over 50% right now.

It is SSS of this season, but Yasser, sure has had a 180 from last year for him. He was terrible in low A all year. This year though he has increase his walk rate, increased his power, and just overall hitting. His K-rate is the same at about 25%, but clearly he is making better contact when he does get hits, and walking at a slightly higher clip, but he must be making just a lot more solid contact. He has speed clearly, if he can get on base that will be huge, he will not need to hit a ton of HR. He has been in the organization a long time, but still only 21 and could move up to High A soon. If he keeps up his pace he will fly up the prospect list.

As the article pointed out, Lewis is not out of options, he has 2 option years left. He very well could be sent down this year, and with how Lee is hitting right now, and Culpepper is hitting in AAA that move may come sooner than later. It is sad to see how far he has fallen from his huge 2023 year, in just 58 games when we were talking about corner stone for years and signing him to a long term deal. Now going into his arb years his value is negative. That is why you can never draft too many SS and hopefully Culpepper can come up, swing Lee over to 3rd.

It is an interesting theory that one less day of rest, but also less pitches, could produce better overall results, and more innings overall. Part of my question is that just for development, or are they looking to use this as MLB level? Over the years teams have done different things with the 162 game setting and off days. Do they keep their pitcher on normal rest and use 4 starters when there is an off day or just give them the extra day and keep with 5. If you stuck with 5 all season they would get 32 starts each with top couple getting 33. In recent years 5 to 6 innings have been average across the league on starting pitching. Top guys slightly more, bottom guys slightly less. We used to say 200 innings was a good bench mark for a solid starter. If a starter pitched in 33 games, and pitched over 200 innings, that would be 6 innings per start about. If that is top of the limits, understanding there is the few times they will go 7, 8, or very rare 9 innings. How much of a decrease will we expect per game innings wise, if we did 4 day rotation? Would it be 20%, my guess we should not suspect that else the math says it will be equal, so we need to assume they are going to say between 10 to 15% decrease in pitches/innings. That would mean somewhere between 5 to 5.5 innings. If they are closer to the five, we are at a wash, why? At the end of the season we are looking at 200 innings still, just spread over 40 games than over 32 games. Maybe they think it will increase results in those innings. The assumption then is that they will face the order only 2 times generally, and hopefully will still have decent enough stuff over the innings they are doing that, on the limited rest, and although you are getting similar innings, they will generally be more effective innings. This will be fine, if you can do this with multiple pitchers, to basically piggy back. You get the 4 to 5 innings from the starter, and the 4 innings from the piggy back guy. Then they both get their 4 days off. You then need basically 8 pitchers to do this effectively normally. Leaving then 5 other pen guys. The guys that will come in late in games as special guys. This could work, only if you stick with the plan through the whole season and you say these 8 pitchers will stay on this rotation. Then you only use the other 5 guys when the plan goes off the rails. You cannot mess with it. It will be interesting to see if they think it is workable. The big issue will be injuries though.

That whiff rate is just not sustainable. You cannot swing and miss 40% of the time at AA and expect to have any chance of making majors. Something will have to change.

We are one month into the season. Brooks Lee has been hitting better, but still not a good defender at SS, most likely needs to get moved to either 2nd or 3rd long term. Culpepper down in AAA is holding his own, but not crushing. However, if he is a better defender than Lee. With Keaschall struggling hitting, and having options I could see maybe sending him down for Culpepper and shifting Lee over to 2nd if Keaschall does not improve soon. In terms of OF, Wallner continues to struggle this year. He is negative value right now. He has struggled like this in past and bounced back, but he is not doing anything right now. Meanwhile, E-Rod is crushing in AAA. I could see Wallner getting sent down as he still has an option for E-Rod if this continues.

The article highlights what is a frustration I have had with player development for years. In particular for hitters. You draft or trade for a player because of something you like about them. Then you go ahead and tell them we want to change everything that has made you successful, because there might be a better way to go. As pointed out, Buck was coached different ways and despite cursing the minors when he got up to MLB level they kept changing his swing and he was in his head so much all the time. When he finally said enough, I am going to do me, he took off. Martin similar, we traded for him, and right away said all that stuff that made you the top 5 pick scrap that, we want you to become more aggressive at the plate, and try to be more of a HR hitter. He was the good player and said okay lets try it your way coaches, and it failed. When he was on his last chance, he said I am going to do what I know, and he is showing his way that he did all his life, maybe is working for him. Lee, he is a little different story, as I do not think the Twins did much to tinker with him, but he has needed to make some adjustments over the years. I feel like sometimes coaches feel like they need to get a player to make adjustments before we learn if it is needed. You see issues that may get exploited and then say we need to fix this issue that will be an issue in future. Only, it may not be an issue in the future, and you create bigger problems

I like the write up talking about how trades are more than a simple comparison of numbers by the players, but context in those trades are important too. Of course when Gil had his good year or so, fans were upset the deal was made, but the years he spent in the minors the Twins got some value out of the deal and the Yankees got none. If Gil bounces back and show he can be a good starter again, it does not mean the deal was bad for the Twins. We have no clue if Gil would have ended up doing the same for the Twins either. One old deal that people bring up, that really highlights the context of the trade idea is John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander trade in 1987. Detroit sent Smoltz to Atlanta for Alexander. Alexander was amazing for Detroit going 9-0 with 1.53 ERA. Smoltz went on to HOF and helped the Braves dominate the 90's in the NL. At the time Smoltz was not a top rated pitcher had been a 22nd round pick out of high school and really not dominating the minors when he was traded by Detroit. At the time many thought Atlanta blew the deal, but history says Detroit got fleeced. However, Detroit got what they wanted help to win the division, only to lose to the Twins in the playoffs. We do not know if Smoltz would have developed the same way with Detroit though than with Atlanta.

E-rod is looking like he will be the first called up from the OF down there. He is on the 40 man, and doing his thing in AAA. He has an OPS .945. He is getting on-base at high clip, hitting for power. I hope he keeps it up to try to force a move. But first OF that goes down with injury E-Rod will come up I am sure.

This happens to all players that were once considered great defender, people think they are always a great defender and do not look at the fact that they lose defense as they get older. We also see some of the great catches, HR robbed or diving or wall crashing catches, we forget the little "routine" catch of a could be single is more common chance to make the difference. He still is the best CF we have on the roster, but assuming Jenkins can defend CF better, he should take it over and move Buck to a corner spot in the future.

International signed players are always a lottery ticket. Outside of Asia, the players are 16 or 17 generally, assuming that they are not lying. Some pan out, some do not. Even the ones that are ranked super high never make it, and ones that are ranked much lower do. They are open to the highest bidder, now with cap on spending kind of, but still you never know how they will grow and develop. I could point out many international classes and point out many flops by many teams. I could point to even one of Twins biggest years was the Sano, Kepler, Polanco year. Sano was the prize of the signing, but provided the least value overall of the three. Polanco and Kepler each have career 20 war, Sano capped out at 8.

Quick could be someone if the team needed a pen guy later in year he could move up quickly enough to do that, assuming they have on innings limit and has not reached it by then.

The pen and defense was the downfall, we will hear this a lot this year. We knew going into the season our defense was going to be bad. We have subpar defenders at just about every position. Buck is still good in CF but losing a step and not elite defender anymore. Outside of him the OF are all below average. SS well below average defense there. 3B maybe average at best. 2B below average. 1B Clemons grades out above average, but rest are well below average. Cather we are fine there, but across the board we have terrible range, terrible jumps, outside of a few, terrible arms. Most guys are on team, in their spots because of offense. We will need the offense to carry. The pen is filled with below average guys, and the couple of above average guys cannot pitch every day. We will need some to step up or convert some of our AAA starters to pen guys this year if we want to really compete.

He does have 1 year left of options. He is dealing with sore ribs thanks to a 95 MPH fastball to them. That cannot be easy to hit when your core muscle is bruised.

This happens to every guy that comes up and rakes to start, outside a very few. They come up, get a heavy does of fastballs by pitchers, they crush them, so then pitchers start throwing the off speed stuff to see if the kids adjust. Eventually they do. However, so often it gets in their head. They think they will never get a good fastball to hit again and start guessing up at the plate. They swing at any off speed pitch in the zone thinking it will be the only pitch in the zone. They chase fastballs out of the zone thinking it is the only fastball they get. They get in their head. Now he needs to figure out how he is being pitched to, and adjust. The film room is where he needs to start. The book is out on him now, he needs to rewrite it.

He is the exact opposite of Culpepper profile. Culpepper was drafted because of bat, not glove and was expected to move off of SS due to lack of glove. However, last year reports were Culpepper glove was playing fine enough to stick at SS. Houston was that his glove would play at SS, but his bat was going to be the issue. Early results for Houston was not good last year, but early this year is that maybe he made adjustments this off-season and paying off, or just SSS, time will tell. If his glove is elite and he can be even average hitter he will get many years at MLB level. He would push Culpepper to different position, or team possibly. It will depend on how far off the gloves are and the bats. It will be nice to see Houston hitting better than expected and climb up the minors. You can never have too many SS in your system.

The people that like to, point to 1 thing, similar media market size. They ignore all the other differences, like competition of other sports as mentioned. They use that one fact and that is all they need because everything else does not support their argument.

I would not say that because the Padres spent as much as they did it was what lead to the huge sale. Did it help to keep the fans coming, most likely. I will agree when the owner spends big to try to win the fans see they care, which helps. However, this is not the only reason for the huge value. We will never know, but the Padres were hundreds of million in debt as well, mostly to pay the players because they did not have enough cash on had to pay them, so they had to take loans to do it. The owners made out better in the end clearly, but I doubt the Twins would have got the same price tag. I believe the "Tailgate Park" that the Padres own has a lot to do with it. It is a 1.25 billion dollar development near the stadium that has apartments going in, parking ramp, retail and office space as well. So a nice non baseball revenue flow that will make money year round. The Twins lack any kind of real estate around the field to sell with their team. If you take the 1.25 billion value of that spot, now the purchase still out paces the Twins offers, but much closer. You can say it was all the roster spending, but that real estate I am sure was a huge factor for the much larger price.

My post was not about being an attack on Waller, just pointing out his current situation as he is struggling. My post also is premised on the AAA pushing the MLB players, just as you pointed out. They are not going to call any of them up most likely unless they are pushing the issue, or injuries. My question was what would need to happen to get them up, and of course they would need to push the hand of the MLB club. I also was not advocating for demoting Wallner, I was pointing out, he would be an option for that without losing, but Larnach would be going away most likely if you wanted to send him down. Wallner can be optioned without passing waivers.

I agree if someone comes up for Outman he would not have to assume his roll, but outside of Roden it is not likely they would call someone up to be a bench guy, again outside of injury. Meaning that as you pointed out Wallner would have to step back to be the bench guy more. I would agree, if Clemons gets booted, Bell could play 1B more and have someone like Gonzales DH more, or slot Wallner/Larnach there more. That is another route than what I talked about.

We all know injuries will happen and that normally opens spots for AAA guys to come up. But outside of injuries, what will need to happen to get one of the 5 hitters in AAA that hopefully will try to force their way onto the roster? The five guys I am talking about are Jenkins, E-Rod, Gonzales, Roden, and Culpepper. Both Jenkins and Culpepper are not on the 40 man. Culpepper is the only infielder of the group too. So we already have a log jam even in AAA for playing time in the OF as only 3 of the 4 can play out there and the 4th normally DH's and they rotate around. Culpepper is mostly playing SS and some 3rd. In regards to Culpepper, I think his path is easier, without injury to someone, because only Lee is blocking is playing time. Yes, we have Grey in there for SS, but he is not going to be the one stopping Culpepper if he is crushing in AAA, it will be Lee. Lewis could be the one that loses playing to Culpepper as well, but his history of possibly being a star will give him longer rope. Lee has been hot recently at the plate, but his defense is subpar at SS, and unless you are an elite hitter, which his career is not that, then you are double hurting yourself by having him at SS. If Lee does not become and elite hitter, or at minimum pick up his defense, his time as starter will be cut short if Culpepper, an assumed better defender than Lee, crushes in AAA. The OF guys it is a much harder path. Specifically because 3 hit left handed, and Gonzales the righty is considered a poor defender. Additionally, at the MLB level, they are pretty set in what they are doing. Buck in CF, and if he is not there he will play one of the corner OF spot. Wallner is getting all the starts and seems to be the number 2 OF, despite his early struggles at plate. Larnach and Martin are platooning in LF and it is working very well so far. Outman is the 5th guy out there, but he only replaces Buck when they want to rest him, or late inning running or defense. In terms of possible DH at bats those have been mostly Bell who has shared 1st with Cartini and Clemons. So how does one of the guys down in AAA get a shot without injuries? Some might say send Outman down as he does nothing on offense. Except for other than Roden, the team is not wasting service time on a late inning replacement guy. They could do it with Roden, and maybe that is his path. Larnach and Martin both crushing and out of options it will take a bit to drop them, as they would need to be offered up on waivers. Also, Martin is right handed so unlikely they would want to take him away for anyone other than Gonzales. The most clear path would be sending down Wallner, he has 1 option year left, and he is not doing well at the plate. I know it is great to have his power threat in the line up, but he is an OPS of .629 right now. If that continues for too long and there are guys in AAA that are possibly better defenders and more consistent hitters, that is the clearest path right now. This is because other than Roden, any call up of the other guys will be to play every day. If Larnach drops off a ton, then he would be next to look at DFA, but being how much he is getting paid it will need to be a huge drop off in my opinion or a clear super hitting AAA guy to make that move happen. Most likely injuries will force the moves first, but if not, I could see Culpepper forcing Lee out of starting spot, but he will either need to show above average defense with average offense or above average offense with average defense to really force the hand right now. Lee is on thin ice though. As for the OF, Roden could take Outman roll, and start to push Wallner for playing time sooner than the other 3 guys. If any of the other 3 are pushing for time at big league it will be for Wallner's spot as a starter, or Larnach most likely.

I agree in part with spending again, when you dumped the CC money. However, as a mid-market team, spending just to spend is not always the best. That is how some FA in the past started getting these bloated deals that ended up being terrible because they were the best FA out there and the teams had money to spend. If it is a single season okay that is fine, as they will not carry the profits from one year as a possible deficit the next, but signing a free agent to a multiyear deal, just to do it, does not make sense either. Spending the money the right way is good, but spending because you have it does not make sense some times. Not defending the lack of looking to bring in some pen arms this year, they should have.

I think there are a few reasons for the change from last couple years. One, the runs being scored early for the Twins make it easier to allow a starter to stay out there and work through some hard innings, something I am a fan of as well. Two, our best pitchers are our starters and we have a weak pen, on paper at least, and you cannot lean on them night after night. The last 2 years, our pen was considered a strong pen, with 3 or 4 guys that you could count on 1 inning each of good pitching. That made it easier to go tot he pen early because you could patch it together easier. Now, not so much. There is also a difference in Shelton and Rocco. Rocco looked at the analytics and always made decisions based on them, and rarely looked at the game situation, in my opinion. He would say well pitcher may be only at 80 pitches, but he pitched 5 innings no runs and went through rotation full 2 times already, and it is a close game, so I need to pull the starter because the hitters will have an increased likelihood of getting a hit. I also want the pen guy to start an inning because the decreases the chance of runs being scored too. So add it all up, pull the starter now. Rocco would managed like a math guy, saying this move gives me 2% more chance of winning game based on history, so lets make it. Shelton seems a little more old school, even going out to talk to a starter who had runners on with 2 outs and left him in to get out of the inning. Rocco would have never. Time will tell if Shelton continues his ways and if he wins or if it starts blowing up in his face.