Trov

I think he is a big risk. After 2024 he would have been a strong target as he had back to back big offense years in minors. However, last year he struggled not just at MLB level but back when he was in AAA. What caused that? Was it injury, or was he finally scouted well and pitchers know his holes? Will he fix that or just become another power hitter that once pitchers know how to pitch him and he falls apart? Clearly Baltimore was not sold on him long term with the fact they paid huge for some to be ahead of him. Maybe he could DH for them but my guess they may have concerns of him long term. I would not give up much for him at this point.

He is fine enough to fill in for a year. Really his ability to hit right handed helps as that is his stronger side and we were loaded with left hand hitting guys. He does not move a needle but he has always been above average hitter, very streaky guy that when on hot a streak can carry an offense for a week or two.

No worries, looks like no team believes he is worth an MLB spot this year as he was not taken.

Why do we look at a couple of weeks out outlining performance and say hey this is who this guy is going forward? I have nothing against Clemons, but he is 29, had a career year that was mostly built from a few hot weeks. He was still below average for a full season, but we are acting like he should just be planned to get 500 at bats plus next year, either at 1st or somewhere else. I am not saying his defense could not be helpful, but can we just say that at 29 his couple of hot weeks in the season were just that, SSS hot streaks and accept he is who he is, an okay defender that is not a good hitter but can get hot?

Please stop pushing Paul Goldsmidt. The writers on here seem to love him despite the fact he is clearly cooked. He had a huge hot start to year last year then was terrible for a month, and then below average for a couple of months to close out well below average again. He would have been negative WAR player if not for his crazy hot months to start season.

I would agree both of them should not just be held onto because you can, if either show they are passed over then DFA them.

I expect Buck will get traded, and really for the long term view he should get traded this year. He is coming off his best season, mainly from health. He is willing to waive his no trade clause. Pounce now. You will never have a better time to trade him value wise. I will miss him, but even with him what are we doing this year? Nothing most likely. I always said his value will drop off a cliff due to the nature of his value being speed. He has developed more of a hitter, but the speed and the defense will go sooner than later. Maybe he has 1 more good to great year, but sell before he hits that cliff. His contract is not bad, but I would not be surprised if next year he is back to missing half the year, and then going forward he is barely above replacement, moving to RF. If you can get a couple of top prospects now, go for it.

To me the worst trade of them all was including Varland, although long term it could work out. The rest were guys that were unlikely to return next year, or at minimum give little value the rest of the year to a bad team. Duran would have been back for sure, but at what price? Also, how valuable is a closer on a bad team? Think about it, if you hardly have leads late to save, how much value do they have? Sure, if we make a huge turn around this season he will be missed, but that is not likely, and even if we do, closers across a season are way overvalued. Varland had years of control that is where he was surprising and felt was worst of the trades. CC was not earning his contract, and rumors were he may have been bad for the young guys in the club house development, cannot speak to that, but if true getting rid of him is a plus.

A cap helps provide parity and balance. A floor helps make spending on vets and middle of the road players, it may hurt some of the stars a little. If there is a cap and floor it will require a reworking of the whole pre-free agent timelines as well. The players do not want a cap because they do not want to cap what they can make, and they do not trust the owners on opening the books on what revenue looks like. Plus, the players have long argued the non-baseball revenue that is generated by owners for owning real estate around the stadiums that has value due to the teams being there. Regardless, the players should see that a cap and floor systems is not only better for the game, but better for the average player and vets. The biggest issue the players have had over the last decade or so is the 30 something vets not getting jobs or getting the contracts they were getting late 90's early 2000's. This is because the way free agency works in baseball now, the owners/GM's learned it makes more sense to not call up a guy until he is 24 or 25, unless a mega start in making, and use them up cheap in peak years, then let walk where their output is not much better if better then a new 24 or 25 year old. How would a cap/floor system help the game, and the average vet player? First, lets say it is a cap similar to NBA, the soft cap with tax implications. That would be something I would suggest for MLB. It would give players staying with home grown teams incentive to stay as teams could go over the cap to keep their own players home. The stars will still get paid, but there will be less hoarding of star players on the few top paying teams, unless they home grew them, or traded for them prior. This would mean less likely mid-level or small market teams always losing top guys to bigger markets. With the floor it would also stop teams from doing the full mass rebuild route and brining in league min guys that are not ready MLB just because they are cheap. Normally when a team goes that route they are not calling up true future prospects either to waste service time, but they are rolling out mid-level guys. More vets would be retained to fill out rosters. Assuming an overhaul off the pre free agent rules there would be less service time manipulation too. The downfall to the players are less long term deals of like 10 years or more. The reason is one most likely CBA would block it but even if not, teams will not want to risk getting stuck in cap problems with an aging player that is not producing. Right now, the big market teams know they will be paying a player for bad production, but they are okay with the cost of that. Mid and small markets cannot afford that. Do I think it will happen, no. That is because the players will not back down, and the owners will eventually say, well we are losing all this money having to pay employees(not the players) during a shut down, and just the cost of upkeep for the ball parks and taking in no money. So they will cave eventually. The players will complain about how the teams could be paying the players more but choosing not too, and the owners will complain they do not bring in enough money, while the big markets continue to out bid every small to mid market team for players and continue to march into playoffs.

If he wants a minor league deal I would not be opposed to it, but I doubt he ever plays a major league game again.

Some have said DeBarge should be considered a down stock from draft, due to not having as much bat as was hoping. However, his OBP is reasonable .347, could it be higher sure, but being that he walked at high rate, that normally carries to each level, and if he can still steal at the rate he does, he will have value. Also, if he can defend multiple positions at above average that hold huge value too. Think of Willie Castro as a possible comp.

I was just pondering a question that if a player drafted by a front office, not limited to Twins, and they trade that player quickly, within a year or two, and the drafted player turns out to be a bust, should the front office get credit for the trade, assuming they got value in the trade, or attacked for the poor draft choice? As I said this is not about the Twins front office but we have been on both sides of this in recent years. We traded for Austin Martin, who was traded one year after being drafted, and we traded away guys like Chase Petty and Noah Millar were traded away within a couple of years of being drafted. Now, none are to be considered "busts" at this point but just was highlighting them as players who were traded early in time with team that drafted. I am sure there are many possible trades this could be looked at. The question I have though is if you draft a player in first round or two and they fail we call them a bust and blame the front office or at least organization for failing. However, if they get traded when they still have value as a prospect because shortly after drafted and you get value out of that, do we give praise for the front office making the trade? Do we say the front office did a bad job of drafting but good job of maximizing the value? I think it is an interesting question. For example, we traded away Chase Petty, and got two good years from Sonny Grey for it. Petty did well enough to get up to MLB level last year, but did terrible at MLB level. He may not be a bust and may be just fine, but his last year was terrible. His AAA numbers were not good and his couple of starts at MLB level were terrible. He is still very young and may develop into a good pitcher. However, if he ends up being a bust and starts bouncing around from one organization to next, should front office get credit for getting value out of him, or attacked for drafting him to begin with?

Normally I am a big no on position player rule 5 picks, but the 2 first basemen would be interesting. First, we need a first baseman and no one has jumped out as a clear front runner. Clemons is the guy penciled in, but he really is not a good hitter in his career and outside of a couple of hot stretches he really was not with the Twins last year either. Between the 2 I would push for Blaze, mainly due to him being younger. His K to BB ratio has gotten better, and he could still have development. Neither can run much nor are they known to field well. Blaze was known to be a huge power kid, only to have less in pro ball, but I bet as he gets older the power may return. He could be an interesting try at 1st this year, being no one is running away with it. What do we have to lose?

I see no reason to look to sign DFA outfielders. We are so deep on them to begin with. Lowe I could see as a spring training invite or a much cheaper 1 year deal as we have a major need at first.

I have said all along Larnach is DFA/non-tendered. I could see a team with need for a left handed hitter willing to trade a low level prospect or some international signing money for him, just so they know they get him, but he is a replacement level corner outfield/DH. You can find them just about anywhere. Nothing about Larnach screams a team needs to reach for him. Topa, I agree could get the non-tender as well being he has not shown anything that would require locking up a roster spot for him with an unknown price. If they can agree on a price I would not be surprised to have him stay, but if his asking is way more than Twins feel like they want to pay, and just want to avoid whole process he will be gone.

I think the biggest question for the FO is are they looking for a possible pen arm to help this year, or a stash guy to help in the future. The 21 year old would need to be hidden in pen most likely all year, or work out a trade to keep him if they like him. The others appear to most likely pen guys long term anyways, but could be more helpful during the season.

I just wanted to comment on how Gleeman phrased the quotes of Lewis talking about stats over the team. A couple of things, as was pointed out by Lewis the coaches seemed pretty in line with stats, and would not let guys work through things or grow if they were struggling at times. Not just Lewis. Additionally, he may have not said it well, but making in season adjustments can cause even more of a struggle, if it is a full overhaul of things. Hitting in baseball is built on thousands of swings of muscle memory and it is not that easy to just change it quickly. Could he have said things differently sure, but what had change from the next big thing as it relates to his swing? Did pitchers just adjust? Did the coaches try to make tweaks that worked against him. Did the possible culture of the coaching staff affect him mentally, which baseball is a huge mental game.

I fully agree with Clemons, as he has never been close to what he did for the Twins, and really outside of a couple of crazy hot streaks he was not very good. Buxton I agree simply because he never has played that much. In terms of the pitchers I always hesitate to talk about regression because so much depends on how they may adjust, or any new pitches they develop. Most pitchers ebb and flow throughout the year even not just year to year. Some have a couple of poor years then bounce back for a good stretch. However, the more I read on Ryan the Twins should look to see what they can get for him. At the same time, people have doubted him his whole career and he continues to show he is a good pitcher.

I personally think hitting coaches at the MLB have little impact on most of the players. At lower levels sure, but by the time they have got up to MLB level most players are pretty set in their swings. They may help work on little tweaks here or there, but they rarely will make the huge difference. I hope he can help, but I am not expecting huge changes in our established players.

I personally am not a fan of HS arms early off the board. They are too hard to project long term. Sure there are some success stories but there are a ton of busts with them too. Unless they are facing a ton of top talent at showcases and doing well, they normally just overpower weak comp and make them look better overall.

I would take what Paddock said with a grain of salt, he always struck me as a guy that would always talk crap against his ex. I am sure there are some things they could to on that front to help. Top FA will not come here generally because we cannot offer the money other teams will, outside of what we did with CC, but the big deal was the 3rd time a charm thing. Middle road guys are ones that may not just go with the biggest paycheck and will look for the little things. Lower level guys or guys that are trying to make team from minor league deal may actually want to come here though. Being that AAA is across the street they never have to worry about packing up and moving when they get called up, or have a second place. However, those are not really the guys we want to target.

When I saw the hiring I thought it was done because he was similar to Rocco in the analytic game, which our front office is big on. Personally, I think they could have made a slight change but I get it.

Two things, first I wish we had full ABS and not the challenge system, and I am sure it will be full in a few years they just wanted to ease in the system for fans, mostly, and some players to get used to it. Teams will have to figure out times to use the challenges because if you get it wrong early on it not super important situations you may lose it in a super important situation. Second, pitch framing is not about moving the glove quickly into the zone. Umpires have already decided ball or strike before all that, and they cannot see where the catcher is holding the glove. I mean think about it, they are standing behind the umpire, the pitch comes in so fast, do you really think the umpire can see where the glove is being positioned? No they do not. However, I will agree pitch framing is a thing, but it is more based on the lack of movement by the catcher and and any movement he does have is toward the zone. For example, if you set up inside and the ball is on the outside part of the plate, even if in the zone, the umpire thinks it must be outside the zone if on the boarder for how much the catcher needed to move to get it. However, if he he does not move at all and the ball is on the boarder inside the umpire will think it is a strike, even more so if the movement of the catcher is toward the zone. Umpiring is a very hard job, and the worst part is that it is greatly affected by bias of the umpire. They are very good at their job, but research has shown on the boarder calls they are no better than flipping a coin. That is where the need for the ABS is on the calls the human eye cannot get right on better than 50-50.

DFA him already. He is basically a platoon DH. He can hit righties but as pointed out he cannot hit lefties. Who knows what a new manager will bring, but when you offer just a slightly above average bat against right handed pitching, no defense and instant outs against lefties, you offer little value to any team. I wish he could provide more value, but we have too many guys knocking on the door at AAA to fill at worst a similar spot.

What? You think Steer is better than Wallner? Steer has been league average hitter over his short career, but below average last year, with a 94 OPS+. His defense at first is not bad. Wallner even in a down year still was above average hitter with OPS+ 110. Steer has been fine for Reds, but I would not look to trade him straight up for Wallner. I would point out Steer is only playing first because he is terrible on defense everywhere else.