Trov

My post was not about being an attack on Waller, just pointing out his current situation as he is struggling. My post also is premised on the AAA pushing the MLB players, just as you pointed out. They are not going to call any of them up most likely unless they are pushing the issue, or injuries. My question was what would need to happen to get them up, and of course they would need to push the hand of the MLB club. I also was not advocating for demoting Wallner, I was pointing out, he would be an option for that without losing, but Larnach would be going away most likely if you wanted to send him down. Wallner can be optioned without passing waivers.

I agree if someone comes up for Outman he would not have to assume his roll, but outside of Roden it is not likely they would call someone up to be a bench guy, again outside of injury. Meaning that as you pointed out Wallner would have to step back to be the bench guy more. I would agree, if Clemons gets booted, Bell could play 1B more and have someone like Gonzales DH more, or slot Wallner/Larnach there more. That is another route than what I talked about.

We all know injuries will happen and that normally opens spots for AAA guys to come up. But outside of injuries, what will need to happen to get one of the 5 hitters in AAA that hopefully will try to force their way onto the roster? The five guys I am talking about are Jenkins, E-Rod, Gonzales, Roden, and Culpepper. Both Jenkins and Culpepper are not on the 40 man. Culpepper is the only infielder of the group too. So we already have a log jam even in AAA for playing time in the OF as only 3 of the 4 can play out there and the 4th normally DH's and they rotate around. Culpepper is mostly playing SS and some 3rd. In regards to Culpepper, I think his path is easier, without injury to someone, because only Lee is blocking is playing time. Yes, we have Grey in there for SS, but he is not going to be the one stopping Culpepper if he is crushing in AAA, it will be Lee. Lewis could be the one that loses playing to Culpepper as well, but his history of possibly being a star will give him longer rope. Lee has been hot recently at the plate, but his defense is subpar at SS, and unless you are an elite hitter, which his career is not that, then you are double hurting yourself by having him at SS. If Lee does not become and elite hitter, or at minimum pick up his defense, his time as starter will be cut short if Culpepper, an assumed better defender than Lee, crushes in AAA. The OF guys it is a much harder path. Specifically because 3 hit left handed, and Gonzales the righty is considered a poor defender. Additionally, at the MLB level, they are pretty set in what they are doing. Buck in CF, and if he is not there he will play one of the corner OF spot. Wallner is getting all the starts and seems to be the number 2 OF, despite his early struggles at plate. Larnach and Martin are platooning in LF and it is working very well so far. Outman is the 5th guy out there, but he only replaces Buck when they want to rest him, or late inning running or defense. In terms of possible DH at bats those have been mostly Bell who has shared 1st with Cartini and Clemons. So how does one of the guys down in AAA get a shot without injuries? Some might say send Outman down as he does nothing on offense. Except for other than Roden, the team is not wasting service time on a late inning replacement guy. They could do it with Roden, and maybe that is his path. Larnach and Martin both crushing and out of options it will take a bit to drop them, as they would need to be offered up on waivers. Also, Martin is right handed so unlikely they would want to take him away for anyone other than Gonzales. The most clear path would be sending down Wallner, he has 1 option year left, and he is not doing well at the plate. I know it is great to have his power threat in the line up, but he is an OPS of .629 right now. If that continues for too long and there are guys in AAA that are possibly better defenders and more consistent hitters, that is the clearest path right now. This is because other than Roden, any call up of the other guys will be to play every day. If Larnach drops off a ton, then he would be next to look at DFA, but being how much he is getting paid it will need to be a huge drop off in my opinion or a clear super hitting AAA guy to make that move happen. Most likely injuries will force the moves first, but if not, I could see Culpepper forcing Lee out of starting spot, but he will either need to show above average defense with average offense or above average offense with average defense to really force the hand right now. Lee is on thin ice though. As for the OF, Roden could take Outman roll, and start to push Wallner for playing time sooner than the other 3 guys. If any of the other 3 are pushing for time at big league it will be for Wallner's spot as a starter, or Larnach most likely.

I agree in part with spending again, when you dumped the CC money. However, as a mid-market team, spending just to spend is not always the best. That is how some FA in the past started getting these bloated deals that ended up being terrible because they were the best FA out there and the teams had money to spend. If it is a single season okay that is fine, as they will not carry the profits from one year as a possible deficit the next, but signing a free agent to a multiyear deal, just to do it, does not make sense either. Spending the money the right way is good, but spending because you have it does not make sense some times. Not defending the lack of looking to bring in some pen arms this year, they should have.

I think there are a few reasons for the change from last couple years. One, the runs being scored early for the Twins make it easier to allow a starter to stay out there and work through some hard innings, something I am a fan of as well. Two, our best pitchers are our starters and we have a weak pen, on paper at least, and you cannot lean on them night after night. The last 2 years, our pen was considered a strong pen, with 3 or 4 guys that you could count on 1 inning each of good pitching. That made it easier to go tot he pen early because you could patch it together easier. Now, not so much. There is also a difference in Shelton and Rocco. Rocco looked at the analytics and always made decisions based on them, and rarely looked at the game situation, in my opinion. He would say well pitcher may be only at 80 pitches, but he pitched 5 innings no runs and went through rotation full 2 times already, and it is a close game, so I need to pull the starter because the hitters will have an increased likelihood of getting a hit. I also want the pen guy to start an inning because the decreases the chance of runs being scored too. So add it all up, pull the starter now. Rocco would managed like a math guy, saying this move gives me 2% more chance of winning game based on history, so lets make it. Shelton seems a little more old school, even going out to talk to a starter who had runners on with 2 outs and left him in to get out of the inning. Rocco would have never. Time will tell if Shelton continues his ways and if he wins or if it starts blowing up in his face.

I some what agree, as his first appearance was bad, and first start was not good either. However, I would disagree with saying his second start did not line up with metrics. First, you cannot compare metrics over a single start, as the advanced metrics is used over many outings to get a more true picture of what the pitcher is doing. If you do that in a single game they will never fully line up, unless like you said it is a game like his last start where he was dominate. Sure, in his start against Detroit, he was one hit away in the first few innings of giving up big numbers possibly, but he got strike outs and got out of those innings without giving up runs. That is the point of the metrics, because in a single game maybe luck of a good catch or wind knocking a ball down will help but the expectation is across several games that evens out. Clearly if he starts each inning with 2 on nobody out, eventually he will start giving up big innings, but he did work out in that game, and overall the game was a good game for him.

I fully agree, people were upset with our three top pen arms being dealt, all of which would have been back this year, and a couple next year. The issue with that is a pen arm has much less value than a starter, just based on innings pitched. So far this year, maybe just maybe 1 game would have been different with those three guys in our pen, but then you need to remember we would have had different starters so may just maybe we lose a couple more as well.

We all know most of the fans were upset with the full sell off last year, keeping only a couple of valued controllable players. Rumors that Buck would have been part of it had he wanted to as well. Really, it was a sell off of rental arms with only a year or two of control left. The highlight trades were dumping CC contract for a discount of what they had to pay, no real return. Duran for Abel and Tait. Jax for Bradley. Varland and France for Roden and Rojas. Not going to list all the minor trades of guys that had no years of control and were not in plans beyond last year anyways, like Stewart, Coulombe, Bader, and others that if you get any value from return it will be a plus. Many were upset at Duran, Jax, and Varland, and Varland seemed to upset most due to years of control. So what will it take to say it worked for the Twins? First, we have no clue if the pitchers sent out would pitch the same with the Twins as they are for their current teams. We also have no clue if we would have retained beyond their FA years. What we do know is that the guys in return will have longer control. It will be years before we see any return from Tait, and will not know until long time from now. However, Abel, Bradley, Rojas, and Roden are all at or near MLB level. Rojas was injured, but had a decent first start back. All three pitchers all could pitch for the MLB team this year and next year, barring trades and injuries. So what will it take to be considered good? Right now Bradly first three starts is Cy Young level. Abel had rough start to season, piggy back on Ober first appearance and first start, but last two has been good to great. Even if we do not consider what others are doing, Jax is struggling, Duran has been great(not that we would have needed him yet to make a difference), and Varland has been great too, just giving up 1 unearned run. Of course if the guys in return fall on their face it will be terrible, but so far the results are good. I think getting average starting from them will be considered a win, and if any of them can flirt with all-star or cy young votes it will be a huge success.

There is a flaw in this whole study. First, you are more likely to have a left handed hitting corner OF than any other position. One is because some right handed people will learn to hit left handed, but rarely does a left handed person learn to hit just right handed. Also, the only defensive positions for left handed throwers are 1st base and OF. Left handed hitting people from other positions are always going to be the right handed guy hitting left. That being said, the issue with most fans is not that we have so many left handed hitting outfielders, it is that we have too many that are redundant and out of options, that go along with 2 of our top hitting prospects fitting the same roll in AAA. We have Wallner, who is clearly the top of the pecking order for team as he is not getting platooned, mainly because we do not have a platoon option for both him and Larnach. Then we have Larnach as the next option, this is shown by getting all starts against righties. Now this may be due to production, which is high right now, or could be due to fact we are paying what we are. Then it is hard to say who falls next on the pecking order because we have Outman, who fills a different roll than Larnach. He made team over Roden, who I would say most likely ranks ahead of Outman, but below Larnach. Clemons is on the list only because he has played a little OF, but mainly on team to play 1st against right handed guys. Jenkins and E-Rod fall below, not because of talent but because they do not need to be called up yet. E-Rod is on the 40 man and using options so he could get called up over Roden, Outman, or Larnach at any time, but he has yet to push the team to make that move. The issue I have is we have too many guy either near end of options, or blocking possible better guys because of what they are getting paid or lack of options. I do expect that if there is an injury to Wallner or Larnach, Roden gets the call and the starts over Outman, and he keeps doing his same roll of fill in, legit 4th/5th OF guy. E-Rod would be next in line.

The hitting approach should not change, unless the pitcher change their plan of attack. A few years ago the Twins did the swing early, and then pitchers adjusted and threw junk up on pitch 1. So if the pitchers start doing that you need to take those. If the team is getting better at not chasing, and not swinging at pitchers pitches, that is a good thing. There is nothing wrong with taking a pitch in the zone if it is not a pitch you will do much with. The only exception is with 2 strikes if you can waste the pitch, that is good. Else, you should sit on a pitch and location generally and if that is not the one, take it.

My hypothetical point was there are times, a guy that will get a single at higher rates has more value than a power guy. Yes, there are times you will want the power guy over the single hitter, but my point was having all of one type, regardless of type, is not a good way to build a line up. I was not saying one is always better than the other. I also agree that there are times you would rather have a better arm in case you need to cut down a run, never said Martin was better than Wallner, just comparing the type of hitters they are. In terms of trying to add power in the minors, no fault there of Twins either. If you can add power but still have good results then great, but clearly it did not help him. Martin will never be a super star, but having a guy that can get on base a ton is always going to be good for a team.

Do we need to bring up a right handed bat to beat lefties? I mean we have done pretty well recently against some top lefties in the league. I would be fine with Fedko over Clemons, if that is a route they like, but Martin is holding the right handed OF spot down right now, and Larnach has been fine when he plays against right handed pitchers. I would not take Fedko for Outman because Outman can play CF. If Outman is done, Rodan should get his spot.

Nice to see some not top guys off to a hot start. Ross I am not sold on a "prospect" but if he can continue to hit he could be a utility guy for a couple of years, but he is too old to be a true prospect at this point. He is about to be 25. That does not mean he cannot help the MLB club in the near future, just means he will not be getting any deals beyond his arb years. Jones he may be one of those later round pitchers that jump up the list now that he hast time to develop. Pena still has plenty of time to develop at 20.

As long as he keeps his speed he will continue to have value in baseball with an OBP like that. There are times a single is just as valuable as a HR. There are times just putting bat to ball can be as valuable as a HR. There is still value in a guy that can get on base at high clip, put ball in play at high clip, and run bases well. Yes, there are times you will not want him up compares to Wallner or Bell, but there are times you will want him over many others. If you are getting on base you are not getting out. Which means your team is still hitting. There is true value in that. Yes, it may take 3 hits to a score a run than just 1, but you can also score it with a walk, a stolen base, advance and score on 2 sac flies. Both have 1 hit, both have 1 run. There is also great value in his ability, and willingness to walk. Similar in lack of power but on base ability, Arraez never would really work walks. He would battle and put ball in play, but Martin is willing to walk. I feel a walk for a pitch just feels worse, than a bloop soft cheap single. Both have a similar result, but walking gets in the pitchers head more I feel. Also, Martin can steal bases, he is not great at it, hopefully that improves, but just getting on base and not getting out will always be good. Give me 9 guys that reach base at over .400 percent clip, and my guess you will have a decent offense. Even if you never hit too many HR or extra base hits, you still are not getting out, and the pitchers are throwing a ton of pitches.

In no way should how Bradly does affect how the old FO did in trades last year. Falvey is gone and we should not care if he made good or bad trades at this point. We can hope that trades work out for the future but why should we care that old FO did it? That being said, I have no issue ever trading a pen for a starter. Even more so when he is younger and same years of control. If a guy is doing fine as a starter you keep him there, but if not then you can try pen. But if they are failing out of the pen you do not say well lets make them a starter. The fact that Jax is having poor start and Bradley is having great start does make it look like a great trade, however, I still feel it was a fine trade overall even if Bradley moves back to his Tampa numbers and Jax to his Twins numbers. They provide nearly equal value in my opinion as Bradley pitches more innings.

He will last as long as the FO decides they want to keep him on the roster. He is the 5th OF as pointed out, and really just to fill in for day off for Buck or defense late in game in left. If there is an injury to any of the other 4, it is likely he will still fill that roll. Until the FO feels they could make better use of that roster spot he will be here.

Generally I would say the team is taking the risk on contracts that buy out the arb years and some of a FA year. The reason for teams to want to do it is to know they have a guy locked up and cost controlled, you can plan for it. However, you cannot do it too often because it will lock you into that player, or pay them not to play for you. The player has some risk to doing the contract, but like the Griffin contract extended how can a 19 year old turn down that? Will it cost him possibly 50 mil, maybe. Maybe even more. But if he tears his knee up tomorrow and never is able to play again, he still gets 140 mil. I do not know how often teams reach out for deal like this, and how often players turn them down. The other risk teams make is doing these type of deals is if you now have a position locked down, that may affect trades, drafts, and free agent signings in future. For example, if you sign a catcher to one of these, or a SS, you may be willing to trade a guy that is behind them at those positions, only to find they were the better player. If I ran a team I would only offer deals to very few select guys. Large market teams could do this more, but it makes sense for small market teams. Like the Pirates did with Griffin. He is hyped up, and they have 6 years of control before the deal, now they have 9. You also do not need to worry about service time or anything like that. In 5 years when he is 24, still getting into his prime you do not have to worry about a long term deal. In 8 years when he is in his prime they will, but his value will most likely be at his peak too. They will be unlikely to sign him, so they trade him at peak value. Could he be a bust sure that may happen, and then it will hurt them for years. But odds are they were going to run him out there anyways, it just would have been a lot cheaper.

For years RBI was look at as an important stat, but then there was strong push back on the stat because it was called an opportunity stat, and was not fair to judge players based on thing out of their control, like hitting with runners on. However, I still think we should take some value from the stat. Some people say "clutch" is not a thing you can measure, but I disagree. I feel the best hitters at minimum will hit the same no matter the amount of guys on base, and some may even do better. I think they are a small amount, and they should be considered clutch, and their RBI's should mean something. I am going to compare 2 HOF players, both played for Twins and have very similar batting numbers overall. Player A stats in RBI situations percent of RBI per PA. RISP= .359 runner on 3rd less than 2 outs = .657 Runner on 3rd 2 outs = .414 bases loaded = .932 Runners 2nd and 3rd .651 Player B stats in RBI situations percent of RBI per PA RISP=.392 runner on 3rd less than 2 outs = .722 Runner on 3rd 2 outs = .473 bases loaded = .874 Runners 2nd and 3rd .584 Player B over his career only hit a small amount of HR per PA more. Both also hit 3rd the majority of their career. To me there is a clear difference. Player B was the more clutch player as in the overall RISP and runner on third situations player be came up with more RBI per PA in those chances. The difference is more than the few HR that came up in those situations. Both did great overall, and player A even did better overall in bases loaded and the difference in bases loaded is Player A hit more doubles and took more walks. The biggest advantage for player A was the 2nd and 3rd, where they hit more HR in that situation. If you had to choose player A or player B to come up with a runner on 3rd and needing 1 run, who would you take? Player B clearly has the advantage. That is over a full career of chances for both players. I am sure you can guess who is player A and player B but I just wanted to do full numbers compared by percentage. Being the HR numbers are so similar career wise this negated the extra RBI a HR gives for knocking yourself in. I had started to compare a different non-Twins HOF player that hit too many HR compared to Player or B and that accounted for too much of the difference it would seem. HR and RBI have a direct connection of course, so comparing a guy that hit a ton more HR over career is got a good way to compare if one was more "clutch"

I will be honest, I have not done the research or anything, but I think for hitting prospects, the biggest area I look at is their K rate, and K to BB ratio to help determine their ability to hit at higher levels. Yes, there are other areas, but without watching, if you want to just get a good overview I feel that is a big area to look at. Why is that? Specifically, it helps show at the lower level if they are chasing pitches, and if they are able to find good pitches to hit. For example, if you have a low K rate, then you at minimum are making contact. This does not mean it is always good contact, but no much swing and miss in at bats. Maybe they attack pitchers early though. If the K to BB ratio is good, then that generally means they do not chase much, and can stay off pitches they do not like. If both are combined that can be a good combo. Of course like any stat they need to be taken in combo with others, but I feel it tells more of a story than just something like HR. Is there an area you think tells a better story at first glance? I would never judge a guy just on one stat, but some I feel tell more about them than others.

SSS hot start, good for him, hope he keeps it up. I was one that was saying DFA/non-tender all off-season. Maybe he can carve out the platoon hitter role here and build up some trade value. He is too redundant in our line up to want to stick long term with, and being he will be 30 next year we can expect future drop off, not that it was great before.

I think sending him down to AAA for Culpepper soon and give him the chance to make the adjustments down there. It is hard to make adjustments like they want at the MLB level when you are facing the best breaking balls in the game. You need to work up to it. So send him down, tell him our plan is to work on staying away from pitches out of the zone and punishing the breaking balls in the zone as best we can. His defense is not good enough to also carry a bad bat too.

Do you not want your best hitters to be hitting with guys on base? So if you put your best hitter number 1, does that increase or decrease someone will be on base and in scoring position for them, as opposed to batting 3rd or 4th? I get if your best hitter hits lead off, he will get more at bats than anyone else. However, if those at bats are in less impactful situations, bases empty, versus people on base, does it help the team win? You have the 8 and 9 guys hitting down there because they are your worst hitters, which means your best hitter will have less at bats with runners on base for him. This seems counter to what you want. So you say well they will more likely get that at bat in the 9th inning. So we plan a line up for the expectation that once in awhile we will have a 1 run game in the 9th to have my best hitter come up. But if my best hitter was maybe hitting 3rd, with 2 good on base guys in front of him, the hit he got early in the game may have created more runs, not requiring him to come up down a run in the 9th, but actually with a lead. I guess I am more old school that I like having runners on base for my big bats and not just hope to get a solo HR to start an inning, or a walk and let the guys behind hopefully drive them in.

I never understood the signing either. You add in Bell as a 1st base, you have plenty of options at DH, so you spend big on a catcher/1st base guy that is not an above average hitter. He actually is career below average hitter, close to average. You had a backup catcher already and had options at first. The signing made no sense.

This has been the least excited I have been for a Twins season in a long time. The roster construction is not good, and Shelton does not strike confidence, as he has failed with a bad roster in Pittsburg, and now we have a similar poor roster. When you go around the diamond we have below average players all over, but they have been considered our best. I would agree I would like to see Martin on a more regular roll, not just against lefties, as early on he has been the only bright spot hitting. I know it is SSS and a couple of hot games will flip things. Bell has been okay as well. I hope that they can start to look like a reasonable team but I feel like this is going to be a fight for the bottom and trading Jeffers and Ryan at the deadline with a call up of the top prospects later in the year to give something to watch.

I want to ask why does Caratini and Clemons just deserve to be put into line up? I ask because it seems like they will get as many at bats as can be had. Caratini is a career OPS+ of 90. Clemons is Career OPS+ of 80. Even in his "breakout" year where Twins finally gave the guy a shot, as the broadcast loves to talk about, it was OPS+ 91. How can below league average hitters just be given all the at-bats we can give them? I mean if that is the plan this year I feel like I should stop watching now. I was upset that both Clemons and Larnach were on the team, as I feel both are easy replaced with guys that have higher upside. At least with Larnach his bat has been league average over his career, but if that is worth putting league average in field but below average defender we have to be able to find better in our dozen out field guys we got. Caratini may be okay on offense, but really he needs to get a DH every time he is not catching? I sure hope we see some shake up in roster in the coming weeks as the minor league guys show something. When you need to make room for two career below average hitters, with hardly having double digit HR power over their careers you are scraping the bottom of the barrel.