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dex8425

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Everything posted by dex8425

  1. Someone did a study on this once and found big market players don't have an advantage. There are a TON of borderline yankees players who aren't in the HOF but could be: Don Mattingly, Bernie Williams, Thurmon Munson, Roger Maris, Jason Giambi, Graig Nettles, Andy Petite, Roger Clemens, David Cone, and Jorge Posada, just off the top of my head. Personally I think players who played in Coors field have the biggest disadvantage.
  2. This is really not that close. Johan will definitely get in eventually. He was the best starter in MLB for a stretch of 6 years. Nathan was maybe the second best closer of his era, behind Rivera. The Wagner comp is not really that accurate because Wagner's resume is really much better than Nathan's. Nathan's resume is more similar to Jonathan Papelbon, and you could argue Papelbon is a more deserving HOF candidate than Nathan. Put Wagner's 900 innings against ANY other pitcher's 900 innings; Wagner's are better. Simple as that. He was absolutely dominant (more so than Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera) and looks on track to be elected in 2024 or 2025. The dude struck out 11.9 batters/9 and his career WHIP is below 1. His .187 opponent batting avg. against is the best in MLB history among pitchers who have 900 innings. He retired while still good, which means he didn't accumulate as many counting stats.
  3. Interesting. They are all noteworthy comparisons and all pretty similar: Lofton: 8120AB, 2428 hits, 130 HR's, .299 avg, 107 ops+, 68.4 WAR, 6x All star, 4 gold gloves and 1 season top 10 MVP votes. Value primarily came as a base stealer and solid defender, but not a great hitter. Williams: 7869AB, 2336 hits, 287HR's, .297 avg., 125 ops+, 49.6 WAR, 4x AS, 4x GG, twice top ten in MVP voting. He raked, especially in the postseason, but was not a great defender. He was the best hitter on four WS champ teams. Edmonds: 6858 AB, 1949 hits, 393 HR's, .284 avg., 132 ops+, 60.4WAR, 4x AS, 8xGG, twice top ten in MVP votes. Great complete hitter and great defender, but the shortest career of these guys. Didn't seem to have the HOF vibe during playing days. Jones: 7599AB, 1933 hits, 434 HR's, .254 avg., 111 ops+, 62.7 WAR, 5x AS, 10x GG, twice top ten in MVP votes. The greatest defensive centerfielder ever, and also has 434 career homers. Will definitely be elected in 2024 or 2025. Hunter: 8857 AB, 2452 hits, 353 HR's, .277 avg., 110 ops+, 50.7 WAR, 5x AS, 9 gold gloves, once top ten in MVP voting. Great defender the first half of his career, then a good hitter and solid defender his second half of career. Doesn't have a high enough peak for me. I'd definitely put Jones in among these five. Edmonds and Lofton are very borderline and probably will get in someday. Torii's peak wasn't high enough. Lofton was a victim of a crowded 2013 ballot and playing in the AL alongside Ken Griffey Jr.
  4. Andruw Jones needs to get in first. Jones has more WAR in fewer seasons, more homers, was a better defender and a better hitter, but fell off a cliff after he left Atlanta. Torii had a unique career where he was an elite defender in the first half of his career but not a good hitter, and then a good/great hitter and average defender the second half of his career. In my eyes, Jones is more borderline but should be in, and Torii is not close to borderline. There are several CF'ers who have better candidacies than Torii who are not in, including Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds and even Bernie Williams.
  5. Well, cheating is (by definition) breaking the rules dishonestly. That's why I'm saying the line for serving a suspension is an okay one to draw, because you were aware of the rules, and still were confirmed to break them. Ortiz and Clemens were not confirmed to have broken any MLB rules, and thus should not be penalized or kept out of the HOF as such. Because the HOF has this character clause, I suspect it will affect Jose Altuve's and even Carlos Beltran's chances of getting in. Altuve cheated pretty conclusively. The sufficiency of his punishment is another issue.
  6. I appreciate that you drew a line between serving a suspension and, well, everyone else, who has varying levels of suspicion. I don't think the writers intended the character clause to be used to keep out players with poor, questionable, or unpopular off-field choices or worldviews. That said, if you cheated on the field, that's a fair line to draw.
  7. So....Nick Gordon?? I don't see Niko Goodrum being any better than Gordon, offensively or defensively.
  8. Uh, aren't the owners basically trying to keep the status quo? Their proposal was basically the last CBA, with a few concessions to the players like earlier free agency, higher minimum pay, etc. The players' proposal would greatly reduce the Twins chances of competing. What if we only had Buxton under team control for 2017-2019? That would amount to more of a ruination of the sport than continuing with the current revenue sharing structure, IMO. Thankfully the Pohlads have generously already committed to paying Twins employees, whether or not there is a season. I'm growing increasingly more pessimistic but still pretty sure there will be close to a full season.
  9. Doug Mientkiewicz was easily my favorite player growing up.
  10. For me, his case isn't crystal clear even if you remove the PED tag. Only 55 WAR, and primarily DH. Only other primary DH in the HOF is Edgar, who has 68 WAR and also started his career late.
  11. Well you can't make that argument because Edgar Martinez is (rightly) in the HOF. You could make the argument that Edgar is a more deserving DH candidate than Ortiz though.
  12. Sheffield has the PED tag. So does Ortiz, and Sosa. To me, disliking media/journalists (Schilling) and using PED's (A-Rod, Sheffield, Ramirez, Ortiz, Bonds) should not be viewed similarly. Schilling's statements after his playing days are keeping him out, which seems patently unfair. If you're a "clean hall" type guy, this year I would vote for Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones, Todd Helton, Schilling, and perhaps Clemens, because there's no real evidence Clemens used Ped's. I'd maybe vote for Beuhrle and Hunter to keep them on the ballot another year, but neither are HOF worthy to me.
  13. Oh, should have been more clear. I was referring to when you said the last time he played was in summer of 2019, which technically isn't true because he played in the AFL and then ST the next year. No, I don't think he's ready, and he may not be a regular until 2023. But he has the dedication and tools to eventually play every day SS in the bigs. His plate discipline and approach is not exactly refined yet but neither was Buxton's until 2020.
  14. That's not true, because he won MVP in the 2019 AFL. Then he raked in spring training with the Twins in 2020, where he played shortstop almost every day. I watched him play ST games in person in spring 2020; it was memorable because he hit two dingers and looked to handle short defensively quite well. Arraez skipped AAA and did pretty well but no one is expecting or hoping Royce starts at short for the Twins this year. I think he'd be just as good as Gordon though.
  15. I think the "served a suspension for breaking MLB rules" line is a fair line to draw to keep people out. No Nelson Cruz, no Jorge Polanco, no Rafael Palmeiro, no AROD, no Manny, etc.
  16. Clemens did have the Mindy Mcready affair thing though. I'm not sure how many voters are aware of it however. I would vote for Clemens just because there's no proof he used PED's or broke any rules. And he's probably the greatest RH pitcher ever.
  17. I hate cheaters too, but how do you define cheaters? Bonds and Clemens never failed a drug test. Clemens trainer (who had reason to lie) says he used. Clemens says he didn't. Is suspicion enough to keep someone out of the HOF? Apparently not, because Pudge and Bagwell and Piazza are in already. The real reason Clemens and Bonds and Schilling and Sosa and Kevin Brown aren't in is because they aren't well-liked. I hate how the character clause is used to keep players out who weren't well liked. The character clause should be used as a push, not a bar for entry. I'm fine with keeping players who failed a drug test or were suspended by the MLB out of the HOF. So, no A-rod, Manny Ramirez, or Nelson Cruz.
  18. I think pretty much all the guys you mentioned in the first paragraph will get in via the veteran's committee. Munson, Saberhagen, and Murphy should already be in. Felix isn't on the ballot yet. The committees don't really seem to make decisions based on any objective criteria. I mean, Harold Baines...? Phil Rizzuto? Bill Mazeroski got in solely because of his HR in the world series. Jack Morris got in because of his reputation for postseason pitching.
  19. My answer comes down to whether the Twins actually intend to compete in 2022. If they don't sign or trade for at least three starters better than Bundy, then I wouldn't bother signing Simmons. Just let Gordon play there. Or Palacios. Don't really care, since we won't be winning games anyway. If the Twins signed Rodon, and traded for, say Manea, then sure, I'd bring back Simmons for 5m since the Twins are not going to overpay for Story. I think he's a good bounceback candidate, and he still gives you great defense at short. He never had elite speed or range. His great defense is predicated on that arm, and instincts, which don't go away. He's not nearly as bad with the stick as he was in 2021.
  20. As I understand it, the players proposal (that they are taking a hard line stance on) would create even more disparity by drastically reducing service time with each team. Players becoming free agents much earlier hurts teams like the Twins, Rays, A's, Pirates, etc. The owners are willing to pay players more during the ARB years, but that's not good enough for the players.
  21. All the veteran's committee and golden era committee picks are soft picks really. If Kaat is in, there's no way Johan Santana doesn't get in. Johan has more BWar despite pitching 3 eternities less than Kaat.
  22. Odo and Maeda had their best seasons with the Twins. Nobody has their best seasons with the Angels or Orioles. The Twins current FO has certainly done better with starting pitchers than the Angels or Orioles. That was my point. This FO was hired to develop pitchers, and we haven't really had enough time to figure out if they're doing that well or not. Certainly their FA signings have not worked well. I'd bet that Bundy is better with the Twins than he was with Baltimore or LAA though.
  23. I assume they're doing something. Then again, I assumed they were going to get someone to slot near or ahead of Berrios last year. Instead they signed Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. I think they're throwing in the towel on 2022. Otherwise Stroman, Gausman, Ray or Verlander would be here.
  24. Yep. Needs 15 more WAR-three seasons of 5, or 5 seasons of 3. Not impossible. He put up 3.2 WAR last year. Just hit like Nelson Cruz and he will continue to play, even as DH.
  25. You could make that argument, but the Twins are on a different tier. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda are better than any starters those two teams have developed in the recent past. Despite having a huge payroll, Ohtani was the Angels only decent starter last year and the only one who threw over 100 innings. Their recent "ace" is Andrew Heaney. The orioles have...John Means. They didn't get much out of Bundy, Gausman or Cobb. Cobb was really good with the Rays.
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