The Twins Should be Shopping Sonny Gray

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins are very much still in the AL Central fight, and under normal circumstances should be looking to add at the deadline. 2023 has been an odd season though, and shopping Sonny Gray given recent news makes sense.

Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

The idea to trade Sonny Gray in 2023 does not come from the same thought process as the calls to trade Carlos Correa in 2022. At least not entirely. The Twins have reached a point of extenuating circumstances where they should at least be fielding calls on the All-Star right-hander, and it took a few steps to find themselves at this point.

For starters, the Twins are not a playoff-caliber baseball team. The possibility of them accidentally finding themselves in the postseason is there, but what is that really worth? Typically the thought is that you just have to make it into the playoffs and anything can happen, but having watched this team thus far, it’s hard to argue that they’re capable of putting together a stretch of winning baseball for any period of time, let alone when it matters most against the highest level of competition.

Not only would one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball history be facing the game’s best pitchers in October, but teams have the ability to bring in any left-handed pitcher on the roster and completely shut them down, as evidenced by the Twins' .218/.289/.365 slash line against southpaws. They’ve shown that for how good their pitching staff is with Sonny Gray and company, the offense is bad enough to cancel it out on a regular basis.

The Twins season-high win streak is four games, a testament to the team’s ability to go on any kind of run to this point in the season. They’ve been unable to separate themselves from the worst division in baseball. The postseason is unpredictable, but what are the odds that this team can go on any sustained run across multiple series against the best teams in baseball?

If this were the only argument, it would be worth keeping Sonny Gray, but Sonny has dropped some interesting quotes the last few days that should have the Twins really considering their next move.

The plan all season has been very straightforward with Sonny Gray. A free agent after 2023, the Twins have the ability to extend him the qualifying offer of around $20 million. Recent free agent history is ripe with examples of similar pitchers getting strong enough multi-year deals to decline this offer, leaving their previous team with a high compensation draft pick. If Sonny were to sign elsewhere with the qualifying offer attached for at least $50 million, the Twins essentially get another first round pick in the 2024 draft. If he signs for less, they’d get a competitive balance pick at the end of the second round, a much easier value to beat in a trade return from a pitching-desperate contender at the deadline.

For this reason, it can be argued that the value may skew towards a trade return rather than offering him the qualifying offer and having him potentially sign a one-year deal at best. If Gray won’t be pursuing the Chris Bassitt-type three-year, $60m deal next winter, the Twins should be weighing that value against what they could potentially get in trade.

It’s not always best practice to make these types of decisions based solely on what is considered on paper value, but the Twins have put themselves in a position where they should consider it. In a vacuum, a contending team shouldn’t be parting with their All-Star starting pitcher in the middle of a playoff race. That being said, even with Sonny Gray, the Twins are a below .500 team whose playoff aspirations likely hinge more on their opponent's poor play in the second half than their own success. As they’ve crossed over the halfway point, their mediocre play is no longer a slump. 

They could make the playoffs even without Gray should the rest of the Central continue at their current pace. Should they make it to October, they still have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for a playoff series. It’s still a formidable rotation and admittedly would be an even better one with Gray. As we’ve seen though, if this is the brand of offense the Twins employ, the pitcher on any given day doesn’t matter unless we believe they’re riding shutouts all the way to a world series title.

The Twins don’t need to go full-on fire sale. They’ve established enough pitching depth to continue to compete in the pillow fight that is the AL Central race without Sonny Gray if an offer blows them away. While the 2023 season is still up in the air, they should still have an eye on 2024 and beyond given what we’ve already learned about this team. In what should be a pitching-thin market, they could have an opportunity to get a difference-making return on a 33-year-old All-Star who may not be in the league next year, let alone with the Twins. Should they seize the opportunity?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd be all for this if it were just a video game we were playing. But I can't imagine the value you would get back would help this season or next more than what Gray would help with the team in August/September/Playoffs as well as how he contributes (coaches really) in the clubhouse.

You want to completely lose your clubhouse and all the good work you have done on the pitching side, be my guest. I'll prefer to try to win with the pitching rotation we have assembled here.

[laloesch]

i don't have a problem with the Twins extending Gray as long as it's no more than 3 years.  However, given his recent comments it's clear to me anyways that he's not coming back.  He told the Star Tribune too that he intends to explore free agency, so it's a string of clues he's been feeding the media.  That quote that DO-Hyoung Park cited kinda stings though as it makes him (Gray) A LOT harder to trade which I think is Gray's objective.  What team is willing to give up a decent prospect for 1 year of Gray if he might not be coming back next season or sacrifice a top 40 compensatory pick for the same reason if the Twins?  

[SteveLV]

It would have to be a heck of an offer, well above the QO pick slot.

Maybe the Reds for CES and Steer?  LOL! We could throw in Mahle, too....

[HrbieFan]

Good read and I tend to agree with you.  We simply cannot risk losing Gray for nothing, we don't have the ammunition to do it.  There are going to be some desperate teams looking to bolster their staff soon.  

Not sure who would replace him as Varland hasn't looked great in St Paul. Guess Kuechel would probably be the first guy given a chance and they need to figure out if SWR is in our future plans 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, laloesch said:

i don't have a problem with the Twins extending Gray as long as it's no more than 3 years.  However, given his recent comments it's clear to me anyways that he's not coming back.  He told the Star Tribune too that he intends to explore free agency, so it's a string of clues he's been feeding the media.  That quote that DO-Hyoung Park cited kinda stings though as it makes him (Gray) A LOT harder to trade which I think is Gray's objective.  What team is willing to give up a decent prospect for 1 year of Gray if he might not becoming back next season or sacrifice a to 40 compensatory pick for the same reason.  

A team trading for him really wouldn't give much thought to 2024 and beyond. He's a free agent at the end of the year no matter what.

And

Wouldn't be able to offer a QO.

Only the Twins can offer the QO.

I don't think his comments make much difference.

Not that I'm currently in favor of trading him. Unless the Twins fall a half dozen or more games behind Cleveland by the deadline, I hope they don't trade him.

 

[Doctor Wu]

If the Twins are still in contention a month from now, I don't see them dealing Gray, even with free agency on the horizon. Sure, we have more starting pitching depth this year, but Gray is still a top of the rotation type pitcher when he is locked in, and I think we will really need him down the stretch if we want to win the division, and knock-on-wood, says it's possible, advance in the playoffs, Miracles can still happen and I think Sonny can be part of that equation. Plus, as others have said, I don't think trading him this late in the season, will give us much of value in return.

[lukeduke1980]

This is finally the pitching staff able to break the streak.  That's a big deal.  20 years since a playoff win(?)  Hang onto 1st and win a playoff game at all (reasonable) costs - keep Gray and add a bat.

[Trov]

I am not opposed to trading him for the right deal, being we have guys that could fill the 5th spot down the stretch, and you do not need 5 guys in playoffs.  Gray has been good overall, but at times he throws too many pitches and could have short starts in playoffs. 

However, I disagree that the reason should be because you expect the team to do terrible in playoffs, if we make it.  Yes, our offense has been bad overall, but when you just need to win a few games it only takes a couple of hot hitters to carry an offense. Having top pitching is what teams will want in playoffs, and giving up that simply because you expect a loss pretty much means you never will expect us to win because no team is perfect. 

[weitz41]

I live in Wisconsin and saw 1st hand what the Brewers trading Hader did to the casual baseball fans I work with and the team. A Gray trade would more than likely have a similar effect on fans and the team. Count me out on wanting the FO to do that to the Twins. For the 1st time in my memory, we have a pitcher who should turn down a QO and we are talking about trading him? Nonesense...

Comp A should be a FV 45-45+ prospect, Comp B should be a FV 35+-40 prospect. That's a pretty good prospect for a team to part with for two months of Gray. Also, a hard draft pick to part with for the Twins.

If the Twins are 5 back the last few days of July ok maybe if it's an overpay, otherwise I think you ride it out, QO and try to resign.

Overall, I think the negative outweighs the positive on a Gray trade.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

If the Twins are still in contention a month from now, I don't see them dealing Gray, even with free agency on the horizon. Sure, we have more starting pitching depth this year, but Gray is still a top of the rotation type pitcher when he is locked in, and I think we will really need him down the stretch if we want to win the division, and knock-on-wood, says it's possible, advance in the playoffs, Miracles can still happen and I think Sonny can be part of that equation. Plus, as others have said, I don't think trading him this late in the season, will give us much of value in return.

Trade DEADLINE is 13 days away, not another month. Can’t imagine we aren’t still competitive in the AL Central in 2 weeks, so we need to go for the Division title.

Another contributor mentioned that we’d be fine in the playoffs with Lopez - Ryan - Ober…….Way too many possible HR’s with Lopez & Ryan. I really like them both & understand there are no perfect players but they have both shown major weaknesses at various spots (lately in particular). Ober seems rock solid to date but after another 12-13 starts, who knows. Need to hang on to the veteran presence with Gray.

You & other contributor mention the lack of probable value we can get for Gray - agreed. If he’s a FA next year we aren’t going to get anything of real value for a 2 month rental.

His comments about his potential future actions don’t really play into our reality.

Taking calls is part of the everyday routine for the FO…….no reason not to do this but as we’ve both mentioned, a worthwhile offer probably doesn’t/won’t exist. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I agree that the Twins could be better in 2024 if Gray were traded for some really good players. However, I feel there is a 50/50 chance that the imagined trade for Gray will be a bust. Just look at the Twins' trade history with this FO. There have been some great trades (Ryan), many "meh" trades and some awful trades (Mahle) by this FO. I argue that any trade is a gamble. I'd rather stick with the horse I rode in on this year. Second, it is 2023, and the team is in first place and even Cody wrote in his article advocating trading Gray, that the Twins are better with Gray than without Gray. The Twins must stop waiting for next year, then the next and then the next. Tomorrow is past, the future will always be there and today is called "the present" for a reason...because it is a gift. Carpe diem Twins, carpe diem. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m with Chief, not worried about Gray’s comments. I’m listening on trade offers for Gray, but only accepting an absolutely silly overpay. He’s worth a ton to the Twins and I want to watch good baseball, not continuous rebuilds.

the QO is a win-win for the Twins

[tarheeltwinsfan]

50 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be all for this if it were just a video game we were playing. But I can't imagine the value you would get back would help this season or next more than what Gray would help with the team in August/September/Playoffs as well as how he contributes (coaches really) in the clubhouse.

You want to completely lose your clubhouse and all the good work you have done on the pitching side, be my guest. I'll prefer to try to win with the pitching rotation we have assembled here.

Exactly this. 

[IndianaTwin]

No.

On the basis of a reflective comment from a thoughtful dude who just reached a significant career milestone? 

Likely lose the clubhouse?

Not to mention the fanbase?

With the only team that has the potential to run away from the division?

You're right that you don't make these decisions in a vacuum. Which is why you don't get worked up about a single comment from someone, particularly when the team knows him better than the reporter does. 

No.  

[LewFordLives]

I just really disagree with this. They are in first place and have a good chance to make they playoffs. Yeah, this is an imperfect roster. However, what wins in the playoffs; pitching and defense.  The Twins have good pitching and they can catch the ball. Can they go toe to toe with the Rays and the Orioles?  The odds are against it, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

[LastOnePicked]

Sometimes, I wish we played in the AL East. By now it would be abundantly clear that we should be sellers. Instead, the AL Central gives the fanbase false hope and the FO false cover.

No, this is not a playoff-caliber team. Not even close. This team has been bleeding talent over the last few years. We have got to start getting value back for value signed. We should be sellers, but instead we'll be buyers, losing the likes of Wallner, Rodriguez or Lee in the process.

[LastOnePicked]

3 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I want to watch good baseball, not continuous rebuilds.

But the pathway to good baseball is a rebuild. I want to watch good baseball too, but this is not good baseball. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

But the pathway to good baseball is a rebuild. I want to watch good baseball too, but this is not good baseball. 

But so far it has been good enough to be in first place in the division with the easiest remaining schedule in the AL. The Twins are going to win the central division. The question here is, will the Twins have Sonny Gray to start Game One?   

[chinmusic]

The Twins only shot at the post season is by winning the division.

In that event, they are gifted a best of 3 all played at Target Field.

I'm under no illusions; they are flawed. But the return of Lewis and Polanco will make a significant difference to the lineup.

When that playoff format was instituted, it was an eyebrow raiser for me.

But don't look a gift horse in the mouth, and keep Sonny Gray .

[laloesch]

53 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

A team trading for him really wouldn't give much thought to 2024 and beyond. He's a free agent at the end of the year no matter what.

And

Wouldn't be able to offer a QO.

Only the Twins can offer the QO.

I don't think his comments make much difference.

Not that I'm currently in favor of trading him. Unless the Twins fall a half dozen or more games behind Cleveland by the deadline, I hope they don't trade him.

 

i know another team can't give him a QO (lol), i never said they could.  But as i said earlier his comments DO make it more difficult for the Twins to trade him.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

But so far it has been good enough to be in first place in the division with the easiest remaining schedule in the AL. The Twins are going to win the central division. The question here is, will the Twins have Sonny Gray to start Game One?   

I don't know that Sonny Gray would be their game 1 starter anyways, and I think that's a factor to be taken into account here. They have 4 guys that, at this point, they'd throw in a hat and pick out the order to throw them in a playoff series. Hopefully one or 2 of them start separating themselves over the next 2 months and you have a more distinct rotation for a playoff series, but right now Sonny would be anywhere from 1 to 4 in the playoff rotation, and I think the idea of selling your 4th in line is much different than selling your game 1 starter.

[Whitey333]

Yes.  This is not good baseball. Gray will not likely be back next year.  He as much said so.  Plus he appears to have a little bit of a rocky relationship with Rocco.  IMO I don't think he really likes it here.  We need to keep him and maybe give him a contract offer ge can't refuse.  But if he leaves via free agency we get only a draft pick.  I think they will entertain offers for him but ultimately not trade him.  Then when he leaves we can witch about letting him go and getting nothing in return.  Tough spot for twins to be in but they created it.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know that Sonny Gray would be their game 1 starter anyways, and I think that's a factor to be taken into account here. They have 4 guys that, at this point, they'd throw in a hat and pick out the order to throw them in a playoff series. Hopefully one or 2 of them start separating themselves over the next 2 months and you have a more distinct rotation for a playoff series, but right now Sonny would be anywhere from 1 to 4 in the playoff rotation, and I think the idea of selling your 4th in line is much different than selling your game 1 starter.

It's certainly possible the Twins wouldn't have the opportunity to set a playoff rotation (maybe they have to fight to the finish to win the division), but given a choice I believe they'd give Gray game 1. 

Second half performance could change that, but as of today I think he'd be a lock.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

i don't have a problem with the Twins extending Gray as long as it's no more than 3 years.  However, given his recent comments it's clear to me anyways that he's not coming back.  He told the Star Tribune too that he intends to explore free agency, so it's a string of clues he's been feeding the media.  That quote that DO-Hyoung Park cited kinda stings though as it makes him (Gray) A LOT harder to trade which I think is Gray's objective.  What team is willing to give up a decent prospect for 1 year of Gray if he might not be coming back next season or sacrifice a top 40 compensatory pick for the same reason if the Twins?  

I'm confused by the idea that it's clear he's not coming back, but he's also attempting to make it A LOT harder to trade him. Is the "not coming back" idea about just the Twins or baseball in general? His words in the Park article actually sound like a guy with every intention of coming back, but he'll leave it up to his kids. Kids who he says are loving having dad be a major leaguer, and just got to enjoy a pretty cool All Star break with him. I'm guessing he's absolutely playing baseball next year. So I read your words as him not coming back to MN next year, but then I'm confused on why his goal would be to make it harder to trade him if he doesn't even want to be here to start with. Aren't those ideas at least somewhat contradictory?

And teams trade decent prospects for starting pitching at the deadline all the time. Even if they're an expiring deal. What teams likely won't do is trade a decent prospect for the expiring deal, and tack on enough to cover the comp A pick the Twins likely get from Gray signing elsewhere next year. And that's why it's less likely they'd get enough value in a trade for him. Unless they allow the other team to negotiate an extension with him first. That could boost their return.

[chpettit19]

Just now, USAFChief said:

It's certainly possible the Twins wouldn't have the opportunity to set a playoff rotation (maybe they have to fight to the finish to win the division), but given a choice I believe they'd give Gray game 1. 

Second half performance could change that, but as of today I think he'd be a lock.

It's entirely possible, but I don't think it's a lock at all. I think they'd go Lopez just like they did opening day. I think Lopez is their guy, and he gets game 1 if they have any chance to set a rotation unless one of the other guys separates themselves from the other 3.

[mikelink45]

I am fine with this - but of course it depends on the otherside of the trade.  With Kuechel now on the horizon it provides more flexibility.  And maybe Varland could find his way again. I do want us to get to the playoffs, but for those convinced that Gray is the Ace - remember his NYY years (2) when he was 15 - 16 4.51 and NY was anxious to get rid of him.  We do not know how he will do in the big stage again.

So this is a wishy washy response because there are so many factors to consider. 

[tony&rodney]

If a team wants to offer a top 25 global prospect for Gray, the Twins should listen. Who knows if San Diego, Arizona, Baltimore, or another team is thinking about winning this year and willing to lose their top prospect(s) to acquire Gray?

No team will be thinking about any comments Gray has made recently. They just will want a pitcher now. Gray will be a free agent unless a team puts forth a number (years and dollars) that easily meet his goals. The Twins should not be in that conversation unless they are going to spend like the Padres, so no.

I expect Gray to finish the year as a Twins and receive a QO, which he turns down. The Twins get a solid draft pick and Gray gets a good contract.

 

[chpettit19]

I wouldn't be actively looking to move Sonny Gray. I think he absolutely gets at least one 3/60 contract offer this offseason, and that's a top 40 pick for the Twins next year. That is a very valuable asset that other teams are likely not willing to tack on top of the value they have to pay for the last 2 months of Gray. But if a team is willing to part with enough to get both 2 months+playoffs of Gray, and a comp A pick worth of value I'd listen. But I don't see Gray as significantly better than the other 3 guys that'd make up the Twins playoff rotation as of today so I'd be listening in case somebody gets desperate.

I also think that winning a single playoff game this year would be huge. As much as the players can say "we weren't here for this whole streak so it doesn't really matter" I think it does matter. I think hearing about it every season matters. And it definitely matters to most of the fan base. I think simply taking that monkey off the organizations back has great value. The question is if you need Sonny Gray to accomplish just that very meager goal. I'd argue no.

But I'd also argue that anything can happen in the playoffs. Would their odds of advancing very far be great? Not likely unless 6 or 7 guys really turn things around at the plate against teams a whole lot better than Oakland. But weird things happen in the postseason all the time, and if you can keep this pitching going you'd have a chance in any series. And this team is built to win now. Not built very well offensively, but the goal was to win now. And if this team can't do it then a new FO is the ones who get to try to win for later, not these guys. I want nothing to do with them trying to be massive sellers. Don't want them trading away top prospects for just this year, either, but they don't get to be the rebuilders. Buy on the margins with a relief arm or 2. See what right handed bats are available for middling prospects. And cross your fingers that Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Lewis, and Kirilloff are all healthy and hitting how you expected come October.

[gman]

I want to see the Twins as an ACTUAL good team, not the best of a lousy group. They struggled to beat Oakland for crying out loud. They got their hats handed to them by Baltimore in the last series after their vaunted team meeting. If they can get overwhelmed by not only Gray but a few other players take the deals. They can probably do as well in the division without him.