Could Top Prospect Roch Cholowsky Fall to the Minnesota Twins?

We all know who is going to be selected first overall in the 2026 MLB Draft in July by the Chicago White Sox. What if we don't, though?

This weekend, in one of the more stunning upsets in the history of postseason collegiate baseball, No. 1 national seed UCLA was eliminated by fourth-seeded St. Mary’s. A few months ago, the Bruins looked like a shoo-in for Omaha. In truth, they had been sputtering for weeks, peaking too early, scraping through the B1G Ten conference tournament, and losing key personnel (such as Friday night starter Logan Reddemann) to injury.

Roch Cholowsky has been the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft since the 2025 event took place, marking the possibility that an amateur prospect goes wire-to-wire in the consensus top spot in industry rankings for the first time since Adley Rutschman in 2019. This morning, however, Over Slot published their updated top-500 draft rankings, with a new name at the top of the pile: Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. With all this in mind, let’s walk through a quick update on each of the top three players in the class.

Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Cholowsky had a strong season, even if the end was muted. Despite going 2-12 in regional play, the top player in the class hit .320/.452/.636 on the season, with 21 home runs. Cholowsky walked and struck out a matching 12% of the time. Add his offensive performance together, and you have a 146 wRC+, which down from 2025 (164 wRC+), but impressive when you consider he's probably the best defensive shortstop in the class.

Cholowsky has a path to four plus tools (speed being the exception). There are some concerns around his swing and load being elongated and impacting his rotation against higher velocity in pro pitching, but he’s not encountered a litmus test for that concern in amateur baseball. 

Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS
It’s a testament to the quality of Emerson’s profile that he’s been relatively insulated from prospect fatigue. He’s been famous (in youth baseball terms) for several years, playing for four different iterations of the US National team (and playing every infield position with them).

Emerson is probably a better player at the same age than Cholowsky was, with the best hit tool in the draft class. Questions around his future profile center more on how much power he will develop. He’s seen as a lock to stick at shortstop as a professional, with evaluators placing him in the same caliber of prep prospects as Max Clark and Walker Jenkins from the 2023 cycle. Notably, the Rays (picking ahead of the Twins) have leaned heavily into left-handed-hitting prep bats in recent classes.

Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
Lackey has had the most impressive season of any college player. While he doesn’t have the same historical prospect pedigree as Cholowsky, he’s had an incredible 2026, punctuated by two 450-foot home runs during regional play this weekend.

Lackey has hit .407/.529/.790 on the season with 20 home runs (175 wRC+), walking 18% of the time and striking out 13.3%. He’s stolen 15 bases at a 94% success rate and earns Patrick Bailey comps for his defensive work. There are undoubtedly front offices who see him as the best prospect in the class. Such has been his rise in 2026.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen the arc of the top pick narrative slowly shift. Initially, the White Sox were doing ‘due diligence’ on other candidates at number one. On May 7, MLB Pipeline draft expert Jim Callis opined that ‘the vibe right now is 55-60 percent that the White Sox take Roch Cholowsky’. Today, on June 1, for the first time, he’s not the number one prospect on every major industry draft board.

The next few weeks of postseason collegiate play will dictate the extent to which this narrative continues to be spun. Will Lackey continue to swing a hot bat? Do you think Roch Cholowsky’s grip on the number one spot in industry draft rankings is under threat? Let us know how you think it will play out in the comments.

Check out our 2026 mock draft board, updated regularly, and with detailed player write-ups!