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The idea to trade Sonny Gray in 2023 does not come from the same thought process as the calls to trade Carlos Correa in 2022. At least not entirely. The Twins have reached a point of extenuating circumstances where they should at least be fielding calls on the All-Star right-hander, and it took a few steps to find themselves at this point.
For starters, the Twins are not a playoff-caliber baseball team. The possibility of them accidentally finding themselves in the postseason is there, but what is that really worth? Typically the thought is that you just have to make it into the playoffs and anything can happen, but having watched this team thus far, it’s hard to argue that they’re capable of putting together a stretch of winning baseball for any period of time, let alone when it matters most against the highest level of competition.
Not only would one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball history be facing the game’s best pitchers in October, but teams have the ability to bring in any left-handed pitcher on the roster and completely shut them down, as evidenced by the Twins' .218/.289/.365 slash line against southpaws. They’ve shown that for how good their pitching staff is with Sonny Gray and company, the offense is bad enough to cancel it out on a regular basis.
The Twins season-high win streak is four games, a testament to the team’s ability to go on any kind of run to this point in the season. They’ve been unable to separate themselves from the worst division in baseball. The postseason is unpredictable, but what are the odds that this team can go on any sustained run across multiple series against the best teams in baseball?
If this were the only argument, it would be worth keeping Sonny Gray, but Sonny has dropped some interesting quotes the last few days that should have the Twins really considering their next move.
The plan all season has been very straightforward with Sonny Gray. A free agent after 2023, the Twins have the ability to extend him the qualifying offer of around $20 million. Recent free agent history is ripe with examples of similar pitchers getting strong enough multi-year deals to decline this offer, leaving their previous team with a high compensation draft pick. If Sonny were to sign elsewhere with the qualifying offer attached for at least $50 million, the Twins essentially get another first round pick in the 2024 draft. If he signs for less, they’d get a competitive balance pick at the end of the second round, a much easier value to beat in a trade return from a pitching-desperate contender at the deadline.
For this reason, it can be argued that the value may skew towards a trade return rather than offering him the qualifying offer and having him potentially sign a one-year deal at best. If Gray won’t be pursuing the Chris Bassitt-type three-year, $60m deal next winter, the Twins should be weighing that value against what they could potentially get in trade.
It’s not always best practice to make these types of decisions based solely on what is considered on paper value, but the Twins have put themselves in a position where they should consider it. In a vacuum, a contending team shouldn’t be parting with their All-Star starting pitcher in the middle of a playoff race. That being said, even with Sonny Gray, the Twins are a below .500 team whose playoff aspirations likely hinge more on their opponent's poor play in the second half than their own success. As they’ve crossed over the halfway point, their mediocre play is no longer a slump.
They could make the playoffs even without Gray should the rest of the Central continue at their current pace. Should they make it to October, they still have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for a playoff series. It’s still a formidable rotation and admittedly would be an even better one with Gray. As we’ve seen though, if this is the brand of offense the Twins employ, the pitcher on any given day doesn’t matter unless we believe they’re riding shutouts all the way to a world series title.
The Twins don’t need to go full-on fire sale. They’ve established enough pitching depth to continue to compete in the pillow fight that is the AL Central race without Sonny Gray if an offer blows them away. While the 2023 season is still up in the air, they should still have an eye on 2024 and beyond given what we’ve already learned about this team. In what should be a pitching-thin market, they could have an opportunity to get a difference-making return on a 33-year-old All-Star who may not be in the league next year, let alone with the Twins. Should they seize the opportunity?
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