The Twins Should be Shopping Sonny Gray

[specialiststeve]

100% they need to trade him before the deadline. 

As far as not getting something of value back.. it is an ABSOLUTE sellers market for starting pitching! 

I would guess they would get something in the neighborhood of 2 quality minor leaguers for him at minimum. 

Let us not be delusional and think this team has a shot in the playoffs even IF we win the division... 

Look at the big picture front office... 

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be all for this if it were just a video game we were playing. But I can't imagine the value you would get back would help this season or next more than what Gray would help with the team in August/September/Playoffs as well as how he contributes (coaches really) in the clubhouse.

You want to completely lose your clubhouse and all the good work you have done on the pitching side, be my guest. I'll prefer to try to win with the pitching rotation we have assembled here.

Totally fair, and I wouldn't say I "want" to trade him. IF he seems serious about retiring, I'd just put feelers out and see if a team wants to do something crazy and offer a difference making return. I feel like either the offense comes around or it doesn't and if they do they win this division with or without Gray and still have 3 solid playoff caliber starters. If the offense doesn't come around it's probably still a coin flip, but if Gray seems open to playing next year then I'd still keep him and QO him because that's a lot of value in itself. Basically I just see a small path to trading him if he's serious about retiring.

[terrydactyls]

I don't think there are any factors to consider.  The point of this thread is that Gray should be available for trade to anyone - IF THE OFFER JUSTIFIES IT!   Making someone available at the trade deadline is good business.  Buyers tend to overpay if they feel they can add the one piece missing that might help them win a World Series.  If no offer comes in that meets the Twins' acceptance level, then Gray remains a Twin for the rest of the year, gets a QO, turns it down and the Twins get an extra draft pick.

[jmlease1]

By this argument, KC should have traded James Shields in 2014. He was a pending free agent, had a lot of value as a starting pitcher rental, and KC wasn't even leading their division at the trade deadline. Instead they hung on to him, made a run to the wild card, and ended up winning the World Series. 

I simply don't subscribe to the theory that in baseball if you don't have an obvious top 5 team you should throw away the season and go for assets. Baseball playoffs are weird, and in a short series anything can happen. Phillies finished 3rd in their division and made it all the way to the World Series last season; I doubt their fans would have traded that run for some value at the trade deadline.

With Sonny Gray, the Twins have one of the best rotations in baseball. A great rotation is very dangerous in the playoffs, and the Twins also have an elite arm in the back of the 'pen in Duran. they've won season series against teams like NY and Houston that are a) competing for the playoffs, and b) have been in our heads.

Trading Sonny Gray to avoid the risk of potentially "losing" him for nothing if he retires (which seems like a slim chance, considering the kind of money he's going to be offered) would be franchise malpractice. Dumping a season when the twins are competing for the division is an insult to the fans.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, lukeduke1980 said:

This is finally the pitching staff able to break the streak.  That's a big deal.  20 years since a playoff win(?)  Hang onto 1st and win a playoff game at all (reasonable) costs - keep Gray and add a bat.

FWIW they got a combined 10 IP and 1 ER from Maeda and Berrios in 2020 and still got swept out of the playoffs. Teams usually have 3 playoff starters, which the Twins would still have even without Gray imo.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Teams usually have 3 playoff starters, which the Twins would still have even without Gray imo.

For round 1.

[ValleySpringsFan]

Great article, agree 100 percent. If the Angels are listening to offers for Ohtani, the Twins should be doing the same for Sonny Gray. Not that the Angels are great role models for franchise building. But the Twins aren't going to the World Series and Sonny Gray is not coming back.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

It would have to be a heck of an offer, well above the QO pick slot.

Maybe the Reds for CES and Steer?  LOL! We could throw in Mahle, too....

Don't forget about Chase Petty. If we're giving them both Gray and Mahle, I want Steer, CES and Petty in return.

[Vanimal46]

If we do shop Gray at the deadline, and I think it’s an excellent idea to do so, he will have multiple suitors willing to trade for him. He’d be the 2nd most coveted arm to trade for, behind the great Ohtani. I would guess some teams won’t even pursue Ohtani and spend their time acquiring Gray or Giolito instead. 

[Coach Wheels]

Trading Gray for immediate help in the form of a RH bat that is currently on a 25 man roster works for me, especially if he has told management that Minn is not where he wants to be for the next 3 years. 

This team can pitch, Pagan looks better out of the pen lately, I am leery on Maeda every 5th day, but, for a legit bat, Gray could be moved.

This team needs so much help in the middle of the order, i agree, they are going no where in the playoffs. Buxton, Kepler, and Gallo don't inspire me at all. 

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I’m with Chief, not worried about Gray’s comments. I’m listening on trade offers for Gray, but only accepting an absolutely silly overpay. He’s worth a ton to the Twins and I want to watch good baseball, not continuous rebuilds.

the QO is a win-win for the Twins

I'd expect the Twins to have more info regarding Gray's comments and a better feel for what he's actually thinking. That's kind of an advantage for them to plan around if that's the case. 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

Trading Gray for immediate help in the form of a RH bat that is currently on a 25 man roster works for me, especially if he has told management that Minn is not where he wants to be for the next 3 years. 

This team can pitch, Pagan looks better out of the pen lately, I am leery on Maeda every 5th day, but, for a legit bat, Gray could be moved.

This team needs so much help in the middle of the order, i agree, they are going no where in the playoffs. Buxton, Kepler, and Gallo don't inspire me at all. 

Nobody trading FOR Gray is taking a middle of the order bat OUT of their lineup. 

[Cody Pirkl]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

For round 1.

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nobody trading FOR Gray is taking a middle of the order bat OUT of their lineup. 

Which is why trading Gray is giving up on the season. the teams interested in acquiring him are going for it this season and sending back prospects. There might be some great ones in a package, even potentially one that steps in next season...but the odds of a deal doing anything to improve the MLB team this year are perishingly small.

[Dman]

I just don't see the Twins getting the value they would need to give up the potential for a likely comp pick.  I also am not sure Gray is the pitcher a lot of playoff teams would target for the cost in prospects it would likely require.  

Still anything is possible at the deadline.  It would take a top 100 prospect and then some to get deal done though and if paying that the acquiring team would want to know the likelihood of signing him long term.

Also as stated by many the Twins FO office would be wise to try to win the division as this team has underperformed and they need something positive to come out of this season.  Things are adding up that they have been an underwhelming FO to this point so they need something to hang their hat on even if it is winning the weakest division in baseball.  I think Gray helps them do that and if they can't sign him in the offseason then the comp pick helps down the road as well.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

FWIW they got a combined 10 IP and 1 ER from Maeda and Berrios in 2020 and still got swept out of the playoffs. Teams usually have 3 playoff starters, which the Twins would still have even without Gray imo.

1 minute ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

Every team that played in a series that went 4 games, or more, used 4 starters in that series last year except for the Yankees in the ALDS. The Yankees did add a 4th starter in the ALCS. Teams have 4 playoff starters. The Nats actually used 5 starters that year. Joe Ross and Annibal Sanchez both started games in the World Series. If the Twins strength is their rotation depth it doesn't make a lot of sense to not worry about the 4th spot. That'd be their best chance to win games since their top 3 aren't really blowing anyone else's top 3 out of the water. Their top 1 won't match up with anyone else's #1.

[jmlease1]

24 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

That might work in the playoffs, but you still also have to get there, and dropping Sonny Gray and replacing him with Varland/SWR/Headrick/Kuechel will almost certainly cost the Twins some games along the way as well.

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

For round 1.

Gray starts and wins Game 7 of the World Series.  Book it.

 

 

(I've said elsewhere I would not entertain offers for Gray.)

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Gray starts and wins Game 7 of the World Series.  Book it.

 

 

(I've said elsewhere I would not entertain offers for Gray.)

10 shutout innings.

 

Ha! Like that could ever happen lolol

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Every team that played in a series that went 4 games, or more, used 4 starters in that series last year except for the Yankees in the ALDS. The Yankees did add a 4th starter in the ALCS. Teams have 4 playoff starters. The Nats actually used 5 starters that year. Joe Ross and Annibal Sanchez both started games in the World Series. If the Twins strength is their rotation depth it doesn't make a lot of sense to not worry about the 4th spot. That'd be their best chance to win games since their top 3 aren't really blowing anyone else's top 3 out of the water. Their top 1 won't match up with anyone else's #1.

Agreed, if they do trade off Gray, there’s no shot in the post season. The pitching is built for the season, not the post season.

[TwinkieFan4life]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

If a team wants to offer a top 25 global prospect for Gray, the Twins should listen. Who knows if San Diego, Arizona, Baltimore, or another team is thinking about winning this year and willing to lose their top prospect(s) to acquire Gray?

No team will be thinking about any comments Gray has made recently. They just will want a pitcher now. Gray will be a free agent unless a team puts forth a number (years and dollars) that easily meet his goals. The Twins should not be in that conversation unless they are going to spend like the Padres, so no.

I expect Gray to finish the year as a Twins and receive a QO, which he turns down. The Twins get a solid draft pick and Gray gets a good contract.

 

Exactly!!  As the article says, shop him.  This doesn't mean trade him.  If you get someone offering a true impact prospect absolutely do it.  If not, don't.

[Cody Pirkl]

18 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

That might work in the playoffs, but you still also have to get there, and dropping Sonny Gray and replacing him with Varland/SWR/Headrick/Kuechel will almost certainly cost the Twins some games along the way as well.

It's a drop off but here's my thoughts regarding the regular season: If the offense turns it around, they run away with this division with or without Sonny Gray. They have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball remaining.

If the offense doesn't turn it around, I think they're depending more on teams like Cleveland losing than they are on themselves winning, because as we've seen, the offense can be so bad with regularity that prime Randy Johnson could be taking the mound everyday and they're probably still going to hover around .500.

I say go ahead and keep him, my only point is if he's legitimately considering retirement which would wipe out any QO value, just put out some feelers and see if a team is willing to do something silly. I think they have enough rotation depth that their playoff hopes don't sink or swim with Sonny Gray.

[Vanimal46]

25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

That might work in the playoffs, but you still also have to get there, and dropping Sonny Gray and replacing him with Varland/SWR/Headrick/Kuechel will almost certainly cost the Twins some games along the way as well.

In Sonny Gray starts this year, the Twins have a record of 8-10. He will make at most 14 more starts the rest of the season. How many is some games replacing him with an arm from AAA? 2-3 games? 

[nicksaviking]

I don't think the Twins get the windfall of prospects back for Gray that we'd like. With his age, non-electric stuff and half year of control, I think the return would underwhelm pretty much all of us.

Plus, is the front office really that confident in their jobs that they think they can sell off the best players, miss the playoffs again and survive? I think sticking with Gallo and Kepler shows they're a bit desperate; underperforming vets are a GM's favorite scapegoats to try to (falsely) shift blame. Risking the season on rookies is always going to fall on the laps of the front office.

I think if they were willing to risk the season for the sake of a better future, they'd have started doing so months ago with what should have been much, much easier decisions.

[TwinsDr2021]

28 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, if they do trade off Gray, there’s no shot in the post season. The pitching is built for the season, not the post season.

Seems a bit extreme doesn't it, without him no shot? They are still running out Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Maeda for 4 games, or maybe with Ryan gone Paddock comes back good or Varland or even Festa comes on strong.

I am not trading him for trash but if they can get a couple highly rated prospects that are young and don't required a 40 man I am doing it, or maybe something similar to the Cruz trade where you are taking others tough 40 man decisions and they see something like they did with Ryan. There is no chance if I am part of the FO that I am paying Gray 3/60, that pretty much goes against why they were hired in the first place.

At the end of the day I am actively looking to trade Ryan or Maeda, can't let both walk for nothing, that isn't a good plan for a mid market team. 

[Guest]

Not so fast.  Sonny is 7 for 46 in his career with 12 sacrifices.  Let him DH, he'd fit right in.

[KBJ1]

Trading Gray would have so many negatives. Losing him in FA and getting a compensatory pick would likely be worth as much as any player they were to get in trade.

Make the playoffs, fire the batting coach, get players healthy and start Gray in game one and see what happens.

[laloesch]

45 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Seems a bit extreme doesn't it, without him no shot? They are still running out Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Maeda for 4 games, or maybe with Ryan gone Paddock comes back good or Varland or even Festa comes on strong.

I am not trading him for trash but if they can get a couple highly rated prospects that are young and don't required a 40 man I am doing it, or maybe something similar to the Cruz trade where you are taking others tough 40 man decisions and they see something like they did with Ryan. There is no chance if I am part of the FO that I am paying Gray 3/60, that pretty much goes against why they were hired in the first place.

At the end of the day I am actively looking to trade Ryan or Maeda, can't let both walk for nothing, that isn't a good plan for a mid market team. 

Yeah.  I think you keep your options open.  If the right combination of prospects is offered you at least consider it.  I doubt Gray is back next season anyways and with the holes this team has on offense if they do make the playoffs it's likely a quick exit AGAIN.  Gray is not a make or break player for the Twins.  Don't get me wrong, he's been good for the team, but not having him does not equate "no shot."  That conclusion expressed by a previous poster is kinda extreme in my opinion.  If it was Johan Santana or some other ace pitcher then I would agree, but Gray is DEFINITELY not Johan or even a frontline starter and would certainly not be one on a bigger market team.

[TopGunn#22]

He should absolutely be shopped!!  As I've said numerous times here, the Twins should be buyers AND sellers.  This is a chance to re-work a roster that hasn't had a legit LH starter since the Johan Santana/Francisco Liriano era and can't hit LH pitching themselves.  If the offer for Gray is a good one (and you can get some premium offers at the deadline for SP's) then take it.  Plus, Sonny Gray is practically having a career year.  At some point (maybe it's already happening) he will regress back to a pitcher with a 3.20 to 3.60 ERA.  His current WHIP of 1.27 is not bad, but it's certainly not stellar.  

The Twins could turn around with the prospects they acquired in a Gray trade and make a deal for Blake Snell (who is also an UFA next year) or for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez if they would be willing to pay $18 million in 2024, 1nd $15.4 million in 2025 and 2026.  I'd actually prefer having Ed. Rod at those prices for 3 years than Gray at $20 million per year for the next 3 seasons.  Ed Rod is 3 years younger and LH to boot!  Maeda may not be long for our rotation and he certainly won't be a part of it next year.  Any deals made (both buying and selling) MUST have an eye on 2024 

As soon as Polanco is healthy I'd look to move him.  Julien may not be a good defender but the bat is undeniable.  Lewis and Lee could play some 2B as well for future seasons.  I'd be interested what some teams would give up for Larnach to strengthen our bullpen or SP.  If "anything' could be gotten for Kepler or Gallo I'd look into it.  Rental bats like Bellinger or Pham shouldn't cost too much in prospect capital.  

Heck, the Reds are legit as are the Orioles.  What would they be willing to give up to add Gray to their staff?  You'll never know unless you're willing to talk.  

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

The Twins only shot at the post season is by winning the division.

In that event, they are gifted a best of 3 all played at Target Field.

I'm under no illusions; they are flawed. But the return of Lewis and Polanco will make a significant difference to the lineup.

When that playoff format was instituted, it was an eyebrow raiser for me.

But don't look a gift horse in the mouth, and keep Sonny Gray .

Where does polanco play, and what happens to Julien in your scenario? Because it's very unlikely polanco his better than Julien has. 

I'd listen to offers. If you can get a guy in AA that is a 45+or better, I likely make the trade. This is driven by my belief that they have three starters as good as him, for the playoffs, and that this FO refuses to take a chance on fixing the hitting issues, meaning I think they have little to no chance in the playoffs.

All that said, if they keep him, it's not an awful decision......