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Everything posted by Dman

  1. I think they might try for Correa but whatever numbers they throw up there another team will exceed them. This team doesn't do long term deals so I think the odds of one of the big name shortstops coming here is pretty unlikely. Personally I think they will try and follow the Cleveland Blue Print. Try to go young and hope a decent number of those young players hit. I think Plan A is most likely. Lewis and Lee are their top two prospects for goodness sake and they both can play short. Maybe not at an elite level but they can play it. I have to believe they will give them every opportunity to work out there. They also have Martin who could play there in a pinch. Jullien and Wallner are bats on the rise and Rodriquez could be a fast mover as well. That doesn't even include Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino as young bats still trying to make names for themselves. Not everybody is going to make it but if 50% do that will put the team in a good spot. Correa liked it in Minnesota so there is always a chance I just don't like the odds. Also for as good as Correa is he didn't help this team make the playoffs. I just don't think I like the idea of a player that isn't "that" great a difference maker taking up 20 to 25% of the salary space on this team. Cleveland doesn't have a single player except Ramerez making much of anything and they took the division and have space to add if they want to. That is a position I would prefer to be in. I think Farmer is a decent compromise at this point. We need our young pitching to turn out some better than average arms or it won't really matter what the Twins do at shortstop. For proof just look at last year.
  2. With Urshela pretty exclusively a third baseman I always felt like moving him made sense. Getting someone who can legit play short is an ideal swap IMO. They also get a younger pitching prospect from the Angels to replace the older Legumina and gain a 40 man spot. There is a lot of value in this trade for the Twins. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the offseason shakes out but I think this is a decent start. Hopefully more of the younger pitching prospects the Twins have on the 40 man show they can be difference makers next year.
  3. The first three were no brainers to me. Jullien is everything you want in a bat and Canterino when healthy is very to tough to hit and gets K's in bunches. Headrick is big Lefty with starter potential who could also be a pen arm if needed. The team is short on Lefties so I can see why Headrick was appealing. I really liked what Sisk did last year. The stat sheet looked good and there wasn't much difference in performance between AA and AAA. He didn't give up a ton of HR's I guess I don't understand why they wouldn't make room for him? I would prefer him over any rule V guy they decide to grab. Lawyerson had a really good year stat wise as well he had a serious dominant stretch but his fastball isn't that fast so he would have to be a finesse starter and or reliever. So I can see the hesitation. Things could fall apart for him at AAA but he looks like someone with a chance as a reliever IMO. If you look on MLB.com though Legumina is rated at 26 and Sisk and Lawyerson are not in the top 30. Legumina has a legit 4 pitch mix and the potential devastating slider the Twins love so I guess it makes sense they added him. Still his stats from last year are ugly. I hope this isn't another Strotman type pitcher taking up space. I know position players generally don't get taken that often in rule V because teams just can't afford to carry those players all year and Severino isn't fast, doesn't have amazing power numbers and isn't a defensive wizard. The bat is his carrying tool but is that enough for another team to keep him on the 27 man? I would be hard pressed to say yes. I think you can wave goodbye to Evan Sisk as that is a risk I can see any bottom team taking. Possible that Lawyerson and or Funderburk get taken but I have to believe there are better arms out there to choose from but who knows. The power Chris Williams showed last year could get him picked by a bottom team but he had a pretty large drop off from AA to AAA. I might be alone on this but I really like Anthony Prato as a utility player and I think he could stick on a MLB roster and be valuable but that might be a reach. In summary I am OK with the 4 guys they chose. I like Sisk better than Legumina but I will trust they see more potential in the righty. As always it will be interesting to see what teams do in Rule V and I hope none of our guys get picked.
  4. I like that they generally go high with outfield prospects in international Free Agency then they don't need to focus on that position as much in the Draft. Still the Twins could use more centerfield help in the system but speed seems to be an after thought tool for them. If those are the three guys they get it looks pretty balanced this year with outfield catcher and short. Last years high picks did well and I hope the guys they get this year do just as well or better.
  5. IMO if it looks like he can handle AAA then just keep him in AAA. If he stops hitting then sure send him back down. It is a small sample size but he doesn't look lost at that level and as others have said if the Twins want him to be a legit prospect they need to move him fast because he is already 24. Happy to see him hit the ground running and maybe he turns out to be better than most of us gave him credit for.
  6. Although SWR's numbers look slightly better Varland was the right choice as he pitched all year pretty much without interruption. His consistency along with a slightly better K rate makes him stand out more to me. SWR is right there with him though which is a good thing. It sure would be nice if those two could be front line starters along with Ryan. Congrats to Louie who has worked his butt off and taken the title again.
  7. I had my doubts when it came to Wallner, lots of doubts but I think this years amazing season has put them to rest. The power was always there but the massive swing and miss was troubling early on. Kepler has to be looking over his shoulder as Wallner's bat could be a difference maker in right field. Anyway Congrats to Wallner on a great season and for putting doubter's like me in their place. I really do like Juliens game better than Wallner and he has been amazing since he started pro ball. Essentially not much change in the number no matter the level. I like a guy who can make a pitcher work and he still has power to hit the ball out of the park. He also is savvy on the bases being able to steal bases. Julien is a very complete offensive player now if he could elevate his defense that would really help. Williams was on fire this year but I guess I still don't know if this is a one year wonder thing or not. I think the Twins might have something in Cardenes. I think the bat is for real. The FSL is a tough league for a hitters OPS and he has held his own in that tough environment all year. I would not be surprised to see him move two levels next year if his bat continues to play. I thought he was a more defensive first catcher out of college so I assume he is still solid behind the plate but I can't say for sure. Their are good number of solid bats in the system now if they can find more pitching talent that would really help.
  8. He just gives up too much contact right now and guys are barreling his pitches for home runs. I mean 99 hits in 95 innings is gonna hurt you and his HR rate is a killer as well. Something isn't working. Maybe @bean5302 can take a deeper dive into the numbers but right now there is something about that is too predictable for the hitters he is facing. Fix that and he looks like he could be dominant. Keep things the same and he will never make it. Given his build and the results so far I think a reliever role fits him best but I guess we will see what happens next year. At least he is young for the level. There is time to fix stuff.
  9. I know the OP focused on just three but IMO it was even worse than that. I would go on to argue Strotman and Henriquez and to some degree Sands were all equally disappointing at the minor league level as well. The top of the 2020 draft with Sabato and Soularie continued to disappoint as well. I am giving Cavaco one more year but he too looks out of his depth at the plate. So yeah plenty of of disappointing players on the farm this year and could argue the OP has the top three as those players all ranked higher in the system but the the disappointment goes beyond those 3. I know I keep harping on it but the Twins need that pitching pipeline up and working without it they cannot compete. They seem to be good at getting the most from guys drafted late but they all seem to be 5th starter types. They need to find some front of the rotation types as well to make this work. There were plenty of positives in the system as well. Far more positive player outcomes than negative in the system Varland and Festa to name just a few. With three of the 4 affiliates making the playoffs the system has good players the question is do they have elite players or MLB difference makers there? I hope so.
  10. Happy to see there is still fight left in the teams at A and High A. Muscles with a massive comeback I thought it was over with the score 5 to 3 with the bullpens in place. I give Cavaco a lot of crap but that was a huge hit to get the win. Also nice to see the 2022 draft picks stepping up and helping with the win. They just need to keep this up and find a way to win the series. Lee seems to be looking better every game he gets. They are going to need his bat to keep things going. Another player that gets no love, Javier with a big HR. The guy can still play just needs to find a way to be more consistent with the bat. Seems like that Wichita lineup is running on all cylinders now even after losing Wallner and Williams. Martin has looked better after returning from injury. Prato is still a tough out. Severino has been hitting the ball well and Jullien always seems to find a way to get on base. Throw in some solid pitching and I think this team has a chance in the playoffs. Gotta believe at least one of the three teams in the playoffs can go all the way.
  11. For as frustrating as this year has been it has been a lot more fun than last year. Being completely out of it after the first month of the season made last year really hard to be excited about Twins baseball at all. At least with the fast start and being in it until late in the season games had meaning. So while the results were the same I enjoyed this years team much more than last years. We need much better pitching to compete in the division and the playoffs though. So I hope the arms we have stay\get healthy and that young arms develop otherwise this team is going no where next year either.
  12. Was hoping for at least one playoff win but it was not to be. Happy that Wichita clinched and it is nice to see the bottom three affiliates in the playoffs. The Saints being the only major minor league team not to make it this year. A fun year to watch the Twins prospects in the minors. Hopefully one of these teams can win a playoff series.
  13. I hate to say it but I was kind of waiting for Headrick to fall later in the season. I also thought the move up might hurt him and it has tainted his ERA and WHIP but the K rate remains very good which bodes well. Maybe someone else can correct me but I am not aware of him having a plus pitch. Maybe the slider or change is there now but I don't really know. He was dominant at High A but he wasn't really young for the level either. He is a lefty with a good K rate though so a much needed arm in the Twins system. I would say he an outside chance to start but I see him ending up a reliever myself. We will soon see how the Twins feel as they have a lot of Rule V 40 man decisions to make this coming year.,
  14. Yeah I should have included injury concerns in there. They are not old as you stated.
  15. I agree with most of this. I expected the Twins to get their young players experience. I expected the farm to produce a few more young options for next year as well. I didn't have grand hopes of them being much over or under 500 this year. I will say when they signed Correa and traded for Paddack coupled with the hot start that my perception did change for a brief moment. Still this team and especially the bullpen was flawed from the start and given all the injuries I can see why they fell backwards. The bullpen gave away way too many winnable games. Even with their bad second half the Twins could still be in the hunt if the pen didn't give up so many games early in the season so often. Clutch hitting with the bases loaded was another issue for this team. They had horrible at bats in those situations just mind boggling. Sorry but I don't have a good vibe for next year either with older pitchers like Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and Paddack they seem likely to break down as the season wears on and the pithing pipeline hasn't produced anything solid yet other than Ryan who they traded for. This is a flawed team until they can get pitching figured out. Unlike some I still like this FO and I don't see Rocco as a problem as managers generally just manage by the numbers these days so I don't think change there changes much of anything. My only message to the FO is draft pitching, pitching and more pitching. Take arms early and late. Trade for good young pitching. Until this team can match the top teams rotations it will be seasons like this one over and over again.
  16. I know you are not asking me but they desperately needed arms so I can see why they did that. Not sure every pick had to be a pitcher as I am not certain how you would find room in the system for all those arms but the Guardians took the same approach that year with 19 out of 21 picks being pitchers and one could argue they know what they are doing. I think there are times when doing something like that could be prudent. In fact I would argue the Twins should do something similar next year. The system is loaded with decent bats but the pitching pipeline looks depleted. IMO they should look to go heavy on the pitching side to rebalance the system. Again not sure all 21 picks need to be pitchers but 15 to 16 out of 21 wouldn't be a bad idea.
  17. I really like your list I could let that stand pretty easily and I like that you took chances on Williams and Isola. Personally I think you have Miller to high but that is just me. I love the writeups. Thanks for the list!
  18. Agree that Jullien deserves it more but they are probably keeping AA's best hitter for the playoffs at AA since the Saints are not in the running for the playoffs. Jullien will start at AAA next year and will be a phone call away from the MLB team so a few missed AAA chances won't change anything. As for Lee same thing. The Kernals need bats for the playoffs and Lee will be set to start AA next year and if he performs well they might want to make room on the 40 man for him but odds are they don't do that until 2024 but we'll see. If he truly is special he has a shot to make it next year but no reason to rush him anywhere right now IMO.
  19. Not sure what to think about Lawyerson. He looks like a max effort pitcher to me so IMO not really starter material and I wonder how his stuff would translate but to this point his results speak volumes. Still will the Twins find room on the 40 man for him? Hard to say at this point if you ask me.
  20. I don't know for sure but I have to believe part of the reason he has been fast tracked is that he is already 23 and he has handled each level he has been at to this point well, granted in a very SSS. I think if you want a player at that age to have much of any prospect status moving him faster than slower is the way to go. I thought it was an interesting pick when the Twins made it. A true lottery ticket that saved draft money. In college while older he was an On base machine with good slugging to go with it. If it translates it will be interesting to see where he fits. So far AAA has been hard on him but with only 10 at bats hard to say where he is truly at. It is a steep learning curve for him but I like the way the Twins are using him and it looks like he has a good enough of an approach to make it IMO. Next year we will know much more but I hope the Twins hit the lotto on this one.
  21. It is interesting that at the beginning of the season that most of us thought this was about a 500 team or maybe slightly worse and I was fine with that as they were likely going to need to bring up the young guys. The calculus changed some with the Correa signing and the hot start but true to form the pitching started hurting the team and lost opportunity after lost opportunity finally caught up to them. Honestly it is a minor miracle that the Twins were even in it to the end given their level of play. Granted the Twins made some moves at the deadline to get a better starter and closer but in true Twins fashion they both hurt the team more than helped. There is Atlanta who makes moves that shouldn't even work and then the Twins who appeared to make decent moves and got less than nothing out of it. Baseball is crazy. At any rate this just isn't a very good team. They might have great team chemistry but they fail in clutch situations and don't have enough difference makers to make a difference. Not sure that I feel much better looking at next year either because if the pitching doesn't improve by leaps and bounds this is the same old Twins team we have been watching for years. Don't have elite pitching and can't hit when it really matters. They really need to focus on drafting pitching higher in the draft and also find their later reclamation projects. Until this team can pitch better they might as well just keep losing for high draft picks because being mediocre or slightly worse just really sucks.
  22. I think you are pretty spot on. I keep looking at who might have top of the rotation potential and have to squint just to see Varland and SWR. We are pretty much looking all the way back to Prielipp now and he hasn't even pitched this year yet. Maybe Festa but given his build he looks more like a future pen arm than starter although he did hold up this year. Povich was the only other guy that looked like a possibility and he got traded for a bag of magical beans that gives up leads in the 9th more than he creates saves. The OP is right I went into the year defending the FO for a pitching pipeline that had Balazovich, Sands, Henriquez, Winder, Duran, Enlow on the horizon, Varland, SWR, with some young guys coming up in Povich, Hajjar and Petty with outside chances in SGL, Headrick, Mooney and Festa. Almost all of it has cratered or been traded away. It almost feels like they are back to square one. To say there is ton of pressure on the pitching pipeline feels like an understatement. They will never compete in the division and ultimately the playoffs if they can't do better than this. I like Falvine but if they don't get some wins on the pitching side I don't see how they end up any better than the Ryan regime and that is not saying much.
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