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Everything posted by Dman

  1. The main reason is he is a 50 runner. He is only going to get bigger and likely slower. Almost all the young SS that start out as 50 runners seem to end up moving off the position to second or third. Sounds like he has has good actions and the arm looks good enough but the odds are against him sticking there IMO. I could see him filling in at short but IMO he will grow out of the position. Never say never but again I think the odds are against him. I also think that is why he was rated in the 100 range as a 3rd or 4th round pick. If evaluators thought he would be a top tier shortstop he would have been ranked close to first round or top 40 picks where the Twins took him. Like I said he is a risky bet to stay there.
  2. I like that he is a switch hitter and that he has good defensive instincts. I just don't think he will be able to stick at Short. I was OK with the pick mainly because he is switch hitter and they are kind of hard to find these days and I do think he will hit and I think he will hit for power. Personally I see him in a utility role but will have to wait and see as it takes a while to see how the high school players are going to develop. I certainly hope he reaches his highest potential but I see 2nd or 3rd base in his future and I think the bat will play at either spot in the end. It felt like the pick was a reach but also a fairly safe pick for a guy who should work out just fine somewhere in the infield.
  3. I think the evaluators are correct. Even I don't know what to expect anymore. He needs to show everyone where he is at before he can be properly ranked. I still am a big believer. I have my concerns about his swing but he has had so little development time or time to adjust it all feels premature to judge. I think it is fine they let him drop and like Nick said they can wipe the egg off their faces after he proves them all wrong.
  4. Yeah that was a pretty crazy turn of events. At the time Ynoa was having control problems and was a long ways away so I wasn't that burned about the trade. Even when they eventually decided to trade Garcia to the Yankee's it looked like it could be a win for the Twins as they were getting a closer to ready pitcher instead of one further away. Granted not as much upside for Littell but we needed pitching ASAP so again it didn't seem like all was lost. Not sure why the Twins gave up on Littell so fast. He was injured in 2020 which seemed to impact his stuff and he became pretty homer prone but he had had a pretty good 2019. At any rate they lost out big time on that trade in the end IMO. As a side note remember they were going to trade Burdi to Atlanta but they didn't like the medicals. If they would have taken him instead of Ynoa this trade looks a lot different. Most teams that are close generally do try to trade their further away high upside assets for assets that are ready or closer to ready but lot's of times those asset's don't pan out. Kind of surprising with Gil and Ynoa that both turned out actually better than expected at least to this point. So have some of the relievers the Twins have moved on from. Their pen management kind of boggles my mind. I have no idea what their strategy there is other than grabbing guys at the bottom of the barrel and trying to make them stick.
  5. I said 5 to 6 but it could end up less than 5. I feel like Balazovich can make it. His arm has been solid to this point. Ryan already had a taste and looked pretty good. I am a big believer in Winder and he seems to have a solid build as well. He had a tough second half but with SWR having success at AA at 21 he also seems like a good bet to make it barring injury. I have Canterino having the stuff to make but wondering about injury. Strotman is the last guy I have for making it. That delivery is so smooth it is a thing of beauty to me. He needs to find a way to miss more bats but if he does he looks like a good one to me. I just don't know about Sands. He has definitely has the stuff to be a reliever but I am questioning his ability to start and stay healthy. I don't trust Durans arm to hold up maybe not even as a pen arm. Vallimont looks like he will have a tough time succeeding because he has a hard time throwing strikes. I like Louie but still see him more as a reliever. He can feel free to prove me wrong this year. I don't trust Raya's arm. Enlow still has a good chance but with him being so far away it is hard to know how he will come back from surgery. Hajjar, Povich, Petty, McCloud I just haven't seen enough of them to say yet. It sure feels like a good group. This is the hardest throwing group of guys this system has ever put together and I have to believe some of these guys end up being good. Hard to say who will make it out of the 15 or so guys with potential.
  6. I was pretty excited about this pick when the Twins made it. I know high school pitcher picks come with ton's of risk but it sure beats picking another slow footed bat first player. There was a nice scouting report write up that I am guessing others have read taking a pretty objective view of Petty. If the arm holds up I think the Twins have the upside of a front to mid rotation starter and floor of elite reliever which isn't bad for where they picked either. I am hoping the Twins get lucky with a high school pitcher pick for once.
  7. I think it depends on if you see him as a catcher or DH in the future. The Twins are pretty risk averse and Mitch hasn't been overly consistent (streaky) at the plate other than 2019. I think they take the wait and see approach. If he continues to perform I think they might be willing to do an extension. If not I think they try and work out a trade.
  8. I am not a huge Bundy fan and quite frankly expect the move to fail but who knows he could bounce back as well. I do expect Dobnak to do better next year. He came up his rookie year and performed well. I think the tinkering with the slider might have bit him last year. Then having finger issues didn't help. I also wonder if adjusting to the no more sticky stuff hurt him more than most. I see him working hard to right the ship this year and I still think he has the stuff to be a back end starter. If he can't do it this year with all the pitching coming up he likely is done as a Twin. I didn't like the Cotton move as I felt we had younger guys that might be as good or better for the pen, but the Fangraphs article has me seeing I am likely very wrong about him. Movement is key for pitchers and horizontal movement really messes with a batters swing path. Spin also makes it harder on batters. It looks like Cotton has both and just getting healthy. Not sure if Wes can help him with the control problems but if they can get him to cut down on the walks Cotton could be a very good pickup. Here's hoping they all bounce back but if even just one does it would be very helpful.
  9. Before Rogers finger injury and slight decline in performance I would have probably said they should extend for sure. Right now I am not so sure. If he is still an elite lefty arm, well those are unicorns in MLB to some degree so pretty hard to impossible to replace. If he has lost his Mojo then the money for a 10M or more per year extension would be wasted. I honestly have no idea which one he is so I would not extend at this time. Find out which guy he is and if the finger injury will impact him in any way and go from there that is my take.
  10. Nice article. I was a fan of the trade at the time but there are so many angles to look at this trade and so much conjecture that it makes things harder to judge. This is simply my opinion or lens that I see this deal through. At the time they traded Pressley we didn’t need him because the team was out of it. They did have another year of control left but at that time the team didn’t look like it would easily rebound the following year. In hindsight they did and certainly could have used a reliever like Pressley that year but they did manage to win 100 games without him as well so not sure what “extra” value he could have really brought that year. Especially since the Homer happy Twins offense did not show up for the post season. The other questions are would the Twins have extended Pressley and would they have gotten as much out of him as Houston? The Astros gave Pressley a two year extension for 17.5M with a vesting option for 10M would the Twins have done the same thing? They typically don’t invest much in the relief core, however they did a similar deal for Addison Reed. Would they have done the same for Pressley? Or would Pressley have waited for free agency because he did have this to say after signing with the Astros. " he said. "This is just a good fit for me and my family, being from Texas and my fiancé from Houston and a lot of my friends and family are in Houston. This was a big reason I wanted to be a part of the Astros." Hard to say how that all would have worked out if they didn’t trade him and if they would have just let him walk then having hindsight I prefer that they traded him. If they could have worked something out then that is a tougher decision for me. Pressley’s stuff improved dramatically after being traded. Would the Twins have found the same magic and helped Pressley improve? Hard to say but given what happened it seems they likely were not going to get the same level of performance out of him. Part 2 of the trade brought us Celestino and I have to wonder would the Twins have protected Baddoo if Celestino hadn’t needed to be added to the 40 man ahead of him? So by gaining a player did we lose a player that might be even better? Again hard to say. They might not have felt a need to protect Baddoo no matter what but it does make me wonder. Alcala certainly has the ability to be close to as effective as Pressley in time and for a more reasonable salary but to this point he has been too inconsistent to say for sure. If both players work out then I would say the trade was worth it but it is going to be hard to catch up to Pressley’s performance to this point and he isn’t done yet.
  11. I wouldn’t mind the Twins extending Arraez and gaining a predictable salary schedule. However, lets be honest here. Arraez’s health\knee’s are the elephant in the room here. Polanco already has him beat defensively and I would say Gordon is the better defender as well. Even Spencer Steer who is coming up is going to be better defensively at 2nd and third. I think even Miranda isn’t really a step down from Arraez but likely close to the same with an even better arm. And finally there is Martin who could be an Arraez clone who also you guessed it has better speed and possibly better power. So looking at all that who looks like the odd man out here? I don’t think the Twins need to be in a hurry to trade Arraez especially this year until some of the younger players at MiLB prove themselves closer to ready but with OPS being king I don’t see him being around at the end of his contract or controllable years. I think if you look at the players above they all look like players likely to have higher OPS’s than Arraez and play better defensively with maybe the exception being Gordon’s bat hard to say there, but Gordon is faster with a better arm. I think it is going to be harder and harder to build a case for Arraez in the future. Trading him looks inevitable barring lot's of injuries and ineffectiveness of several other players.
  12. I am not sure the return will be significantly different for 4 years of Arraez versus 3. Three years is still a long time to control a player. The more pressing matter is what team needs a player like Arraez and what are they willing to give up. The bottom 10 teams don't need him because they are already trying to turn over assets to rebuild their teams. The top 10 teams don't need him because they already have someone better at the position. It is risky to trade in the division so count out another 5 teams. I think there are only two or three teams that might have a real need for him. The other day we saw an article with Seattle trading for him but what would they really be willing to give up? They need starting pitching as bad as the Twins so are not going to give any of that up. They likely won't even give up their top pitching prospects who are close to ready because they need them. I think it is going to be hard to find a way to line up with prospective buyers at least in the offseason unless they are willing to take prospects that are further away. It seems to me the best chance to get value for Arraez would be at the deadline when injuries have hurt teams and they are looking for bats for the playoff run. That seems like the better opportunity. Still I think the Twins will be hard pressed to get close to ready pitching for Arraez. They probably could get value going for younger highly valued pitching assets which carries much higher risk but also high upside. They might be able to get a close to ready bat for Arraez but it likely depends on the team they are trading with. IMO even if the Twins found a taker for Arraez I don't think they would trade for a starting pitcher on another team with a couple of years of control left. Why do I think that? Well they just traded one at the deadline in Berrios so I don't see them wanting to trade in the opposite direction losing years of control and adding salary with less years of control. At least not at this time. They have so many unknown's on the 40 man they need to unravel some of that to move forward IMO. They have, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands, Drew Strotman, Josh Winder, Jovani Moran and Chris Vallimont as young pitchers that have yet to pitch at the MLB level. They have Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak, Jharel Cotton and Griffin Jax as players they need to decide to keep or move on from. They have Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Gilberto Celestino, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker who have limited to no MLB playing time and no idea if they can play at that level. That is 18 players on the 40 man that are unknowns at this point. They need to figure out more knowns on both the pitching and position player side. So I don't see them absolutely needing or wanting even more pitching prospects they need to add to the 40 man. I don't think they will be ready to make trades until they better know what they currently have.
  13. I haven't seen anything about the FO wanting to trade Arraez other than their broad statement at the trade deadline that they would listen to offers on just about anyone on the roster. Names like Buxton, Kepler, Pineda etc were definitely out there but I don't remember much talk about Arraez. IMO, the Arraez trade talk picked up after the Berrios trade with the Twins getting Martin. Ever since then there have been several sites reading the tea leaves about the Twins trading Arraez. Even those of us on this site see it as a likely future outcome if Martin continues to do what he does.
  14. I don't disagree. I think the Twins need to and will keep him this year for sure. Too many unknowns in the possible replacements for Arraez. We all expected Kirilloff to take off at the MLB level right and that didn't happen. So I think some patience is required here. If Miranda, Martin and Lewis get a chance to succeed at the MLB level do then I think Arraez is the most likely player to be moved. If not then we still need Arraez in the insurance role he provides. The thing you have to keep in mind though is we cannot keep them all. At some point someone has to go. Whether that is Nick Gordon, Donaldson, Arraez or Kepler or someone else. If we don't want to lose good prospects we need to make room. to make room someone has to be traded or released. We have great depth at the 2nd base position. Martin and Arraez might have matching skillsets with Martin having better speed and likely better defense. They are both Contact hitters with a good eye at the plate. The Twins won't keep both of them and Arraez will get more expensive soon. Doing the math he looks like the guy to eventually trade to me.
  15. I don't disagree with Buster but the Twins I think were number 11 for offense last year with a shortstop who couldn't hit a softball so I think the offense is just fine. I disagree with his placement of Buxton but being he has been injured so much I can understand where he is coming from. Pitching will make or break this team again. There are just too many question marks when it comes to pitching to determine this teams fate. If some of the younger arms can pitch well I think we have the offense to compete in our division. If not then it will be another longer year. The issue right now is that there are a lot of young arms on the 40 man. The Twins cannot continue to carry that much dead weight so they will need to find out if some of these guys can make it or not or risk losing more player to rule V etc.
  16. I agree all three could be fits with the Twins. I like McHugh the best but all three look like reasonable options to me.
  17. I think the OP’s analysis is spot on. We are thin at pretty much all up the middle positions in the system as guys didn’t work out and they have not prioritized those positions in drafting or trades. Hopefully that will soon change. While I agree with the 5 players most likely to be traded I don’t see any of them being traded until possibly the trade deadline. Depending on where the Twins are in the standings, they might be able to dump Donaldson at the deadline. It depends on a few things like Donaldson staying healthy and keeping that OPS at the 800 level but it can possibly be done. If he isn’t healthy then Miranda is the best replacement for his bat as he has power and good contact skills. Trading Miranda who could be a legit 3rd baseman with power under control for 6 years seems like a bad idea IMO. Arraez seems like the most logical player to be traded out of the list but I would hesitate to pull that trigger too early. We haven’t seen Martin at AAA yet and Martin could use some time to try and gain more power. If I am the Twins I am waiting to see that I have a guy ready before trading away a 300 hitter with good eye at the plate. I know Polanco is there already but Arraez can be moved all over and we know his bat plays. The Twins outfield is unsettled as well. We don’t know exactly what we have in Kirilloff and Larnach and neither player has the defensive skills that Kepler has. Again it seems early to trade Kepler to me. I am not a fan of his pull happy approach but he has been league average with the bat while playing superior defense. I would wait to make sure Celestino, Larnach and Kirilloff look more ready before trading Max. I still think the Twins are going to use the same approach they always do grab some FA pitchers with upside and go from there. They have a ton of young pitching on the 40 man they can’t let those guys be dead weight they need to use them or lose them. Thus I don’t see them trading for starting pitching at least not to open the season. In fact I don’t see them trading anyone until the deadline.
  18. He has been happy in the West coast\Texas area and I think he will stay in that kind of climate. I don't see him being interested in Minnesota unless it was a huge overpay or they were basically the only team pursuing him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him with San Diego or the Angles. Both teams could use stabilizing arms and both are on the west coast. Texas might be interested as well hard to say. At any rate I see him hanging out in a warmer weather state likely on the West coast where he has been most of his career now. Even if the Twins did manage to get him I don't think I love the signing. Pitching a guy at the down end of his career versus giving a younger player experience I would choose the younger pitcher. I just don't see the ultra competitive Grienke coming to Minnesota let alone making much of a difference for the Twins.
  19. Well that's a little over half of their allotted amount leaving them with about 2.6 million left if I calculate correctly. Still lot's of room to gain more lotto tickets with that amount left. Looks like a decent class but I say that every year. At 16 it is just way too early to know if these guys will be able develop into an MLB player. The odds of making it are 5% or under I believe so it's not easy.
  20. I don't love this topic because who knows for sure where to give credit to and in what exact amounts. I will say Falvey and Levine benefited by having the talent from the 2012 draft in Buxton, Berrios, Duffey and Rogers. The international signings of Kepler, Polanco and Sano helped as well. While giving credit to adding that talent can you imagine what this team might have become if the FO hadn't gotten basically little to nothing out of the 2013, 2014, and 2015 drafts? And while they picked well in the 2016 draft their system didn't develop those players because Falvine took over in 2017 so not sure how much credit the old FO can get there? At any rate the current FO did have some key additions and once they got the player development going things really seemed to change for the better IMO. So much so that other teams started poaching our coaches. I guess for me I am going to go 50/50 on old and new. A lot of pieces were in place but the new organizational philosophy really changed things for the better as well. I don't think one does as well without the other so 50/50 is the best I can come up with. If the question is would the old FO have done better than Falvine my answer would be a straight up no way. They had years to try and do that and never did. Even in TR's best years he never had a team win 100 games in a season. The analytics and other tools brought to bare with the new FO are helping this team to better compete. Still have to get better pitching though and hopefully that is coming soon.
  21. Justin Dunn as the headliner doesn't get it done for me. He looks most likely to be a reliever, his K rate is below average and he has control problems. We have this guy in our system taking up a 40 man spot right now and his name is Chris Vallimont. Stoudt is 24 and while he has a really good changeup and OK fastball he is someone who would need to be protected right away and we already have a half dozen or more guys that project as good or better than him so he would likely be lost anyway. Campbell is a complete unknown who also would need to be protected. This trade just doesn't make sense for the Twins at all. If they are not going to give us a legit MLB starter then at a minimum and I mean minimum they would need to start a package built around Connor Phillips. He is 20 and was taken in the 2020 draft. He has a legit fastball and decent K numbers. He has solid potential and wouldn't need to be added for another three years. If the Twins can't get someone to give up a decent starter then they should try to go younger and keep the pipeline producing for the future by going with high upside.
  22. While I don’t like the proposal I think it makes sense. The owners are not going to start high on any of those numbers knowing the players association has to counter propose. They need to give them a win or wins and given how low they started they should be able to reach hero level status pretty easily. Not sure they meet directly in the middle but there will be movement and the end result won’t be close to these numbers. Those numbers on the surface to a novice like me seem like a slap in the face to be honest. What they have proposed to this point doesn’t help younger players much at all that I can see. I really don’t like service time manipulation because the players are working their way up in good faith and to break that just seems evil to me. It just really burns me. They need to do more there IMO. At any rate this is just round one and I don’t see spring training in the cards this year. I just hope they don’t come close to wiping out the season getting the numbers both sides know they need to get to.
  23. I echo Mike that this is an excellent monster of a summary. This article has pretty much everything you need as a Twins prospect watcher. Really appreciated the Tags with the players organized like that. I sometimes like to go back and see where a player was or what we collectively were thinking about a player before they break out. Seth really appreciate all the work you put into this. Until I found this site I was never really interested in looking into prospects or how teams get put together. Your work and this site have now made it a passion of mine. Thanks for giving me the other side of baseball. I have enjoyed it!
  24. Seth is getting good at those interviews. Really liked the brothers together. Too bad the Twins don't have Gus as well. He is a well spoken, cool customer. Really liked the love\support he has for Louie and vice versa. Gotta believe if they can stay healthy they both have a real good shot to make it. Nice to see two great Minnesota nice athletes doing well.
  25. That was nicely written. Thank you! His all around skills look good. Would have been nice to see 60 speed there for center but he is only 16 so a little to room to run better there. It is an exciting skillset and he is not done growing physically so could look even better down the road. Happy to see the team focusing more on centerfield options as the system looks short there and at Shortstop. Happy he will be a Twin.
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