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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I can't find anything online and searches are just bringing up recent results. All I have to go on is memory, but I feel like I remember an interview where Jeffers pretty much wanted to bet on himself and get to free agency. I don't remember what year, but if I had to guess it was likely the year after he had that .800 OPS. Not that I get every scrap of Twins news but usually you see or hear something about the Twins wanting to extend a player and I don't remember any news like that about Jeffers. Ryan is a pretty smart guy I'd think he realizes the rare talent he is and wanted to bet on himself and get to the market. I would also add that as this article points out when a player extends they are likely taking less money long term for the safety of getting guaranteed life changing money. Jeffers isn't young and hitting the market before 30 is a shrewd move that should help him gain a longer term deal at higher dollars. The Twins aren't known for over pays in any aspect of player contracts. They would have never over paid for Jeffers. I can't say for certain it was never discussed, but I don't think Jeffers is the kind of person to fall for the lessor payday an extension brings versus getting to market ASAP. For him it seemed like once he hit his arb years or close to it there was no way to extend him IMO. I'd say that's why so many of these deals seem to come as players move from the minors to Majors. If not done soon it rarely happens.
  2. Dman
    I don't know. It sure looks like Wallner is ready to come back to the MLB team. Might not be room, but I don't think they can keep him down there much longer. Maybe dealing Wallner or Larnach at the deadline to make things work? Not sure but he looks like he is back to his regular homer happy self right now. Ever since the surge got Kendle, Houston and Winokur up this has been a different team offensively. All three of those guys are on fire with the bats and it appears to be contagious as Amick and others are piling on as well. 8 home runs for the team in one game. Two off of each pitcher they put out there is just crazy. It's been a tough year for AA this year but maybe they will have a better second half. I had turned away from the Kernel's game late as it looked like they would be hard luck losers again. Had to look twice to make sure I had the score right when I checked back. Six runs in the 9th doesn't happen often. Kudos to them for not giving up. Mercedes has been getting to his power recently. Would love to see him make a strong finish and be ready for AA next year. Nice day for the bats in all the systems today. Hope they keep it going.
  3. Dman
    If your the Twins to move him you'd want at least the equivalent of a comp pick. He might not bring back a top 100 prospect but someone maybe just outside it. An example from the Yankee's would maybe be someone like Ben Hess. He was their first round pick in 2024 at pick 26. So right around the comp round. Maybe Hess and a lower level Lotto or two gets it done? I don't know that I love what Hess brings as a pitcher but he is at AA and doing OK there. If not Hess I think that's the type of value you'd be looking for. I get the angst about keeping Jeffers but this team won 5 or 6 series without him. It's not like moving him would be the end of a potential playoff run for this team. Cleveland, Tampa and Milwaukee do this all the time and they have better farm systems and MLB teams than the Twins. It's time for the Twins to join that club and trade a player who will be an overpay from some other team.
  4. Dman
    That's a nice writeup! I don't have much to add except to echo that Jeffers does not have a particularly strong arm and it's generally something you have or don't have. A catcher having a strong arm can really help control the run game which is so important especially at the end of the games when getting your guy(s) to second can be the difference between winning and losing. Tinney has that kind of arm and he can be taught to frame, block etc. I think he has a chance to be a better catcher than Jeffers defensively. We'll have to wait and see about the bat, but you bring up some great points as to why he could\should be just as successful if not more so than Jeffers. Right now it's all conjecture and hype, but given he signed for under slot I am liking this pick more and more.
  5. Dman
    While I'd like the owners to win the salary cap war I don't think it's going to happen. Reason number 1 would be that baseball is in the best shape its been financially in its history and reason number two given this years results despite the salary disparity there appears to be team parity for the most part. As a fan of a team that receives revenue sharing under the current system free agency sucks as I know nothing all that good is coming my teams way and Not being able to retain star level talent sucks for my team as well. However, should the owners manage to win that war and the Twins traded Jeffers there would be nothing stopping them from bidding 25M per year on him if they want. Still I'd think if they get that cap rise the Twins should use that money on elite arms more than bats as they have a lot of athletic hitters ready to come up and see what they can do. I believe 4 of them are top 50 prospects. So that money could be spent a variety of ways than just on retaining Jeffers. It also seems unlikely that new CBA would go into effect right away it would likely be a series of years to get there as teams were not built for that model and contracts are contracts. At any rate the Twins can keep Jeffers and go for it, but with so many teams clustered in the same range and with the Twins starting pitching so depleted the odds are low that they make the playoffs and even lower that they do anything in playoffs. We've seen the Rays, Brewers, and Guardian's make the smart play and trade players that have increased (overpay) value at the deadline and those teams continue to be successful year after year despite their meager payrolls. I'd think if the Twins were smart they would do the same.
  6. Dman
    I can't remember a no hitter at AA. Usually seems more common at A and high A. I always thought Vallimont had good stuff he just walked too many guys and gave up too much solid contact. That was a great 5 innings. Bowan did his part to keep the no hitter going and can someone on TD tell me more about what Ruddy Gomez throws because he retired every batter by strikeout in his two innings. I haven't watched him but his stats make him look like a dominant bullpen arm. At any rate congrats to the pitcher's who executed the rare no hitter. Man Houston is up to a .900 OPS now at AA where it is supposed to be harder to get hits. He's also getting extra base hits which was sort of the last prove it thing he needed to do with the bat. It's still a very small sample size, but it looks like he wants to break into MLB next year. Kendle with just one hit tonight to bring his average down to .511 and slugging to 1.233. I don't know if anyone has watched this guy, but he's built like a tank and plays the game hard. If he keeps hitting like this he's going to make it. We'll see what happens once this streak ends. I'd kind of stopped watching Chourio and saw that he now has an .830 OPS. His last two months he's been at a .900 OPS. Time to move him up. Looks like he might have figured some things out. Hill still getting those K's and only walked two. Hopefully more improvement will come over time. Wallner with another home run. He's still got it. I wonder if the Twins will find room for him again.
  7. Dman
    I think that is very interesting analysis. Doing it the Twins way you don't get locked into an overpay situation if the performance isn't there. Still if you bet right and the player exceeds expectations then the extension is a genius play and the team that didn't extend gets burned in the end. I haven't really looked at it like that before. In the example above the Twins come out just fine if he accepts the QO if he doesn't though they lose that last year. It's a gamble both ways. I thought they should have extended him three years back, but catchers are tough to evaluate. His defense has never been great and the bat has fluctuated with one .800 OPS year until this year. The Twins played it safe so now have a decision to make. Trade him in for more years of another player or try the QO route and get him for one more year or get some draft pick compensation.
  8. Dman
    Good points. Hard to argue with that. I too feel like if the Twins do finally complete the tear down trades that 2028 looks pretty promising for them to truly compete for a long time. So that does make your scenario more appealing than mine where I am trying to balance things more. I guess I still believe that even if they make those big trades at the deadline this team can still compete to a degree. To your point though if we are playing for 2028 both Caminiti and Hartman should be ready or close to it by then so highest talent wins out. Still hoping to beef up the arms though as they break down at fairly high rates and are hard to find.
  9. Dman
    Well your deal makes more sense than mine as it includes two top 100 players which seems like the starting point for Ryan. I'm just not as in love with Hartman for this team. With his weaker arm he kind of reminds of a faster Luke Keaschal, but from the left side. So another lefty outfielder, granted he runs faster than anyone we have in the system. Rodriguez and Jenkins are currently rated higher than Hartman in the top 100 as well and Hartman isn't really known for his power though he has an average grade whereas Rodriguez and Jenkins are plus there. I get what you are saying as Hartman is a top 100 talent with a potential higher ceiling than some of the arms I named. So in that regard he is the better choice, but I'd still want more arms given the state of the Twins system right now. Still I could see that deal working for both sides. Caminiti and Hartman are both at A+ so far enough away that the trade would be attractive for Atlanta. Throw in some lower level players hopefully arms and that's a likely deal that could be made. However, the Twins would need to get back another close to ready AAA arm in this deal or another one then as it hurts them as they don't have much to replace Ryan with. If it's taking both Caminiti and Hartman I don't see Atlanta giving them Murphy as well unless the Twins would be giving them something else along with Ryan. Hard to know what each side would be willing to do, but I think Atlanta has the players to make a deal for Ryan work.
  10. Dman
    I have my concerns about Caminiti but he is the only Atlanta pitcher in the top 100 and a lefty to boot. I don't see Atlanta giving up Hartman as they need a center fielder thus the Buxton trade talk. If they were it would be nice to have someone with 70 grade wheels in the system. I'd build that deal out with Caminiti, one of Murphy or JR Ritchie and Sinnard. Murphy is close to ready at AAA with decent numbers likely 4th, 5th starter long term. If Ritchie instead then he is pitching at the MLB level but Ryan could replace him as an upgrade. Caminiti is your long term upside arm to pair with Hill and Wachsmann coming up. Sinnard could be a dominant bullpen arm or if arm holds up a decent starter. I think something like that could work. If you don't like Sinnard replace him with someone you do like and maybe some lotto's. The Twins wouldn't be getting two top 100 prospects, but I think they could get the arms they would need to make a deal with Atlanta.
  11. Dman
    If you are trading Ryan, you are looking for pitching, pitching and more pitching. You can include a position player, but need an upper levels arm to replace Ryan's in the near future then likely a lower level arm with upside further away and then some likely high ceiling reliever type arms to fill things out. The system weakness is quality arm depth not position players. I wouldn't trade Ryan for position players I'd just keep him and take the QO. The Yankee's need Lombard as short is a huge weakness for them right now. I'd argue Lombard might be more important to them than Ryan. I like Elmer but he's not enough to make up for losing Ryan. The rest of the system is pretty ho hum IMO. As mentioned above Seattle doesn't need pitching in fact they are trading from their rotation to add meaningful bats. I get that Ryan might be an upgrade, but they aren't trading Kade or a good hitter from their system when those are players they will be ready to plug in next year. Those are two good outfielder's in the Dodgers deal and righthanded is a bonus for this team, but the Twins need pitching. Where is the pitching in this deal? I don't see the Twins lining up with the Dodgers on a Ryan deal unless a third team is involved. San Diego is a bust move for the Twins. We don't need a catcher and I think Salas is over-rated as it is. The young pitcher is a nice get but not enough for Ryan. Systems you should look at if you want to make a Ryan trade would be Atlanta and Tampa. They have the arms to get a deal done. I doubt Tampa would do a Ryan deal as it would make them look bad trading for a player they let go. It feels like Atlanta or bust for a Ryan deal to me unless some three team deals materialize. The Twins need high end pitching so giving up your best high end pitcher should get a return that replaces it and adds to it. It's really crazy hard to develop an All Star pitcher. You need to get the right return back. I don't see any of the deals above matching up well.
  12. Dman
    I guess if the return was right I could see trading him. As others have pointed out he isn't that expensive to keep around. There is a spot for him at first base at least for the moment and I don't think trading him at his lowest trade value makes sense when there is time for him to improve. Still he chases quite a bit and really struggles once the pitcher gets ahead in the count. This might just be who he is. I just still see a guy who can stick out his bat and fairly effortlessly hit a home run. He can still steal a base or two. I'd say he is a long shot to be traded as teams in the hunt are looking for sure things and I don't think that is Lewis. I just don't think the deadline is the right time to trade him. They can give him some more time and decide what to do in the offseason IMO.
  13. Dman
    Any decision can be second guessed no matter what direction you go. a Few years back the Tigers sold everything they could sell at the deadline and still went on to claim a playoff spot. Selling doesn't have to mean you are giving up. Standing pat can be better than trading the farm for one long shot chance at the playoffs and World series. It's all a matter of what your current and future goals are for your team. In July the pen hasn't been the problem for this team as much as poor starting pitching and poor hitting in some games. I don't think a shut down reliever would have done any better than the collection the Twins threw out there to hold Cleveland to no runs through extra innings. The current pen did though. Not saying they don't need more shut down arms, just that there are lot's of ways to look at things. The Twins could easily sell and buy at this deadline. If they like the chemistry of this team they could stand pat. Still, for as much as this team has exceeded expectations especially on the hitting side they are still below .500. Personally I'd sell Ryan and Jeffers and Larnach and Bell, As @chpettit19 mentioned 2027 is going to be a nightmare for baseball if the owners are serious about changing things. Fan engagement is likely to be down if the season doesn't start on time. If Tom is worried about fans for 2027 he shouldn't be. It's likely to be a down year no matter what. Trading at this deadline should set this team up nicely for 2028 and beyond. They currently have 7 prospects in FanGraphs top 100. They have young arms breaking into the majors right now and young bats waiting for their chance. If selling added more depth to that they could create a team that might actually have a chance at a world series run for multiple years if they get the right pieces back. That's the chance or risk I would like to see taken versus just barely over .500 same old same old. We'll see what they do, but no matter what they do they will be second guessed.
  14. Dman
    I think Fangraphs is ahead of the game on Houston and Quick. I still think Houston is light on power as mentioned in his draft year, but Fangraphs is right that he plays really good defense and generally seems to be a .300 hitter. He's tapped into some HR power and I suspect we'll see more as he gets older, but with a good eye at the plate and solid hit tool I think he belongs in the top 100. It might be a little early to have Quick in the top 100 given his control problems, but there's no denying the K rate. He needs to refine his control and command and it looks like that is going to take longer than I thought it might, but he has some really good stuff and I can see that he borderline belongs there. I kind of get Rodriguez not being on the list. He has been so injury prone it is just hard to place him. I have a hard time figuring him out. Still with age and production he seems top 100 worthy. I'd just have him more toward the bottom than the top. He has some warts with K's in zone and that can be problematic at the MLB level. Still he swings hard and has been productive all the way up. Will have to wait and see what he looks like at the MLB level now. That's a nice list for the Twins and bodes well for the future.
  15. Dman
    They desperately needed a split and they got it. Finally got through the starter they couldn't touch to Cleveland's pen who eventually coughed up the lead. They win the next two series and they are back to .500. Job isn't done yet, but this win keeps them close.
  16. Dman
    Well someone is wrong. Usually MLB doesn't put anything out until things are official. And being he is a senior sign, I am betting on the 75K number. I bet that is where they got that number though.
  17. Dman
    YeahI see that. I think they got that wrong. Not sure where they got that info from. Like you I was surprised a senior sign would get slot. I think that is a mistake.
  18. Dman
    Lay didn't get full bonus he got $75,000. Check out number's here I am pretty certain Twins will once again be under their allotted pool to spend. Still like this draft though.
  19. Dman
    I think Law can get a little prickly at times, but I do love that he is willing to go against consensus on players. And for as much as I tend to disagree with him on players his evaluations are generally really good. I have a fair bit of respect for what he says. That being said he's been wrong his fair share as well. I was just surprised at how high he had Rodriguez ranked since he is so picky about players. It's a good thing for us that he has him ranked that high, but Emma has a pretty hefty K rate to overcome at the MLB level. We'll have to wait and see how that pans out.
  20. Dman
    I made assumptions on LaPour since Callis had him signing for slot. Figured just not updated yet. Not sure what the deal is on Bouchard maybe he will be overslot? There's some discrepancies in the numbers from the Callis Tweets to what MLB has for final dollars. So that is where our numbers don't match. I think MLB is rounding up and that is going to make a difference as it is going to be close. I am betting they didn't go over. I only had them over slot by $110,000 in bottom half as so far only two players signed for over 150K there.
  21. Dman
    Tracker has been updated. I show Twins saved $178,000 in the top 10 picks and that gets whittled down to $68,400 after over slot in the 11-20 rounds. Still one pick unsigned not sure if they would over slot or not or if Twins needed extra money for free agents, but at least for now it looks like there is some left.
  22. Dman
    I am surprised that Law has Emma at 31 since he generally is so picky about hitting flaws and ER has some anomalies with the passive approach and swing and miss in zone. The production has always been there but the Majors really expose any flaws a hitter has. I like Rodriguez a lot but wouldn't have him at 31, but that is just my opinion. The injuries also cloud the ups and downs of a full season as it wears players down. I love that he has 4 Twins in essentially the top 50. Maybe we can finally have a another star player or two?
  23. Dman
    I'm still a believer. Not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. He does seems to have some of the same issues Varland had. So I get that a pen move makes sense, His biggest issues are getting into long counts and then gets homer prone. Still he is just a put away pitch from being a mid rotation arm. They just need to find him another weapon or improved pitch and he could be really good IMO. I'd give it more time.
  24. Dman
    I might be the only one but I'd have Lackey at number 1. He looks like the better runner. The stronger arm. At least as much power as Jenkins and will play arguably the most important position on the field. I think if just based on projection the ceiling is a bit higher on Lackey IMO. Still there are a lot of things in Jenkins favor. He is the same age as lackey and already at AAA and doing well there. Even at such a young age he has a balanced batting line at the highest level in the minors. Jenkin's looks like the stronger bat moving forward and being young for the level and having the kind of success he is having bodes well for star potential. There's a lot to like. The order is just preference at this point as they are so close. The nice thing is we have two or three top 50 players in the system right now. I agree with the rankings for the most part except for Soto. I was so excited when they picked him. Now I have concerns his arm\shoulder will never hold up. I think until healthy again I'd drop him further down the list. Everything else looks good to me with Tait in danger of dropping with the poor plate discipline. Right now he is young for the level and barely holding his own. Hopefully he can make more improvements. It's a really nice system but won't be top 10 for long as guys will be graduating if not in 2026 for sure in 2027.
  25. Dman
    The only source I saw was Jim Callis via Bleacher report on X. He doesn't have all the Twins players, but ones on TD look like the same ones he tweeted.
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