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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Pretty Surprised that Rozek was "that" good. I knew he had been pitching well but I guess I hadn't calculated just how well. He is old for the league but I love underdogs and he is fun to cheer for. Still Festa just wow. For a 13th round selection he has been dynamic. Amazing how they have been able re-shape him getting his velocity and deception up. He looks very promising. I know there are still questions about if he really has that third pitch nailed down but golly gee wiz it fun watching him have such surprising success his first full season of pro ball. Varland has been the most consistent upper level starter this year. It hasn't always been pretty but he always gets the job done and his K rate is good as well. I still think his stuff plays up in the pen but he has been solid as a starter and the Twins need starters. A little bit better horizontal run on that slider and I think he can make it. Hope they move him AAA soon as he just a bit old for AA. Happy to see Sands back in the mix. The MLB team is going to need him so I hope he is ready. A nice top 5 but several key prospects are missing from this list. Hopefully they July is their month to shine.
  2. I really like the arm and he could be a dominant at the MLB level. On the Positive side he has TJ out of the way so could be a fast mover through the system and he has a floor of elite reliever. On the negative side since he needed TJ already will he be durable enough to remain a starter? If you are taking him at 8 you are expecting an ace level arm. He doesn't have a proven changeup yet and guys don't always develop good ones. So if ends up just a reliever I don't think that is what you want at 8. Not that they are identical comps but Tyler Jay was a dominant relief arm that the Twins took early that they hoped could be a starter and that did not turn out well. It is hard to convince yourself that pitchers drafted high are going to make it and work out but with all the question marks on Prielip I just can't see the Twins taking him at number 8. I think he falls to the back half of the first round to be honest.
  3. I was thinking\hoping that maybe they could get a rental reliever for Cave and or Cave and lessor prospect. Maybe the same for Beckham? For a team looking for some depth they both make sense and to me seems more likely to fill a role than a lotto ticket prospect or B or C prospect. Still it depends on what the team you trade with wants or needs so they might not be good fits for teams that have what we want. At any rate if both players continue to produce they should have at least some value at the deadline IMO.
  4. Have to say the last few years I was really concerned about Wallner being a bust. He didn't take many walks and was the K king of the system. He has really come around this year. Still a fairly high K rate but if he can even that out with walks and keep that OBP up then I think that is fine. If this is who he is the Twins could have an absolutely monster bat waiting in the wings. Really nice to Wander Javier with a very good month at the plate. He has had some really important hits with men on base and he is showing his power more as well. Still a fair bit to work on but there still is chance he can get to the Majors. He just needs to stay consistent and find a way to not strike out quite so much.
  5. Yeah I think Cave could be a good trade chip. He doesn't have to take up a 40 man spot right away for the team getting him and he can be a solid 4th outfielder with a good amount of MLB experience already. For the right team he could have a lot of value.
  6. He has looked better since coming back this last time from the big leagues. He started out the season essentially unhittable and then went into a major funk. It's all a learning process but I sure hope he is another we can lean in the near future as we need to build arms out for the rotation and maybe more importantly right now the pen.
  7. Last year the Twins finally took a pitcher in the 1st round but as the OP stated I think there are too many bats at the top for them to go pitcher at 8. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if pitchers dropped out of the top 10 completely and picked up steam from 15 to the supplemental round. I like both Lesko and Porter and could see them worthy of the number 8 spot. Lesko was talked about going top 10 until TJ but given the success rate with that surgery his having TJ out of the way might be a good thing for whoever picks him because he should be a fast mover after that. Porter has that Chris Sale type body and the velocity to go with it so I like him as well. Thing is the Twins don't like to bet on arms early in the draft and they have been able to find pitchers later in the draft so I highly doubt they go pitcher at 8. Given the lack of high end arms in the system though I wouldn't mind them going pitcher with their top 3 picks and then spreading things out from there but I don't think they will do that.
  8. Really nice to see Sands pitching well again. If he keeps it up he could help out in the MLB rotation or pen if needed. I hope he has figured something out and becomes a viable MLB option. Have to say Cave is starting to impress me. He is hitting for more power, taking walks has the long on base streak going. wondering if he is trade worthy as I still don't see room on the roster for him but if he keeps this up he will make a 40 man somewhere. Holy Moley Jullien was on fire last night. I really like the guys with a good eye at the plate as they seem to always eventually produce well with the bat. Martin finally seems to be getting his groove back as well. Sure could use a big second half from him to turn his prospect status around. Festa is still pitching well. It looked like he lost his control that last inning and he finally gave up some runs but it doesn't look like he will be at High for long if he keeps this up. Much better pitching and hitting throughout the system. Much more fun in the box scores today.
  9. For a top 10, round 1 pick, taking a guy with an average to possibly slightly below average hit tool is not ideal so I could see Green falling to 8. If you want a window into a guy that only needs his bat to come around to be a 5 tool player look at Keoni Cavaco as a cautionary tale. Green is incredibly talented, essentially Buxton 2.0 with suspect contact skills. He is very young and things could change but without the bat his 4 other plus skills won't completely make up for it. I don't know enough about the swing and miss to know how concerning the issues really are but if Green is still there at 8 they have a tough decision to make. If Greens hit tool does come around he is likely a perennial all star player. He was considered as a 1, 1 pick at times early in the season until Johnson and Jones became darlings with you guessed it better bat to ball skills. Still if he is there at 8 I would probably take on that risk as that star potential is likely too tempting to pass up. We will see if he falls that far as most mocks have him in the top 5. Still like I said and this mock anticipates I wouldn't be surprised to see the player with the lowest rated hit tool fall to the guys with plus hit tools. It makes sense because the guys with the best hit tools have the best chance of making it. The other skills are nice and all but if you can't hit you can't move up and if you can't move up you can't make it to MLB. Maybe someone can refresh my memory on what the grade Buxton's hit tool was. I am not sure it was plus and he turned out just fine, but maybe he was a better hitter out of high school than I remember. At any rate if Green falls I would bet the Twins take him over Neto.
  10. Yeah Law see's him as someone who likely is plus defensively with a plus hit tool and arm. I still think he can grow into plus power but that might be a but too high of an expectation. I really think he could be a solid four tool guy in time. Ultimately he will not be plus runner but still likely above average. His ceiling is very close to a five tool player IMO. His Floor is Nick Gorden with better defense at short which is a little scary. I think he has a better eye at the plate and can be more patient than Gordon and I think he will have more power as well but who knows. Wood bats can change things. Still his skillset and ability to be a fast mover intrigue me and having a plus bat that can stick at short would be huge for the system so I think Neto at 8 is a solid pick. I like everyone in the top 7 a bit more but Neto is my pick for 8 if those are all taken.
  11. Right now Ushela is the primary 3rd baseman so he can't play there. Polanco is back and he and Arraez will cover 2nd base. Arraez and Kirilloff are covering 1st base. Where exactly are they going to play him? Sure they can mix and match some but he looks like the odd man out right now and a good bat for the DH spot. Probably split it more with Garlick and Buxton to some degree. When facing righties they probably go with one of Kirilloff and Arraez for 1st base and DH. It just points out all the more that they don't really need a bat only player right now. Especially a righty bat only player. If Cruz was going to replace someone it would probably be Garlick but again why? Garlick costs far less and as of today his production so far this season is better than Cruz. Cruz is great in the club house but from what I understand the Twins already have the best club house ever and great leadership from Buxton and Correa. They don't really need Cruz for that either. Again I like Nelson Cruz. I think very, very highly of him. It is nothing personal at all but I don't think he raises the bar on the team we have right now. For a bat only player he needs that OPS in the high 800 to low 900 area to move the needle for me. He isn't there. Unless that changes I would just pass.
  12. He didn't help the Twins win 1 playoff game in 2019 or 2020 and he didn't help the Rays in the playoffs much either. So yeah I will take a rookie with really good bat to ball skills in that spot. He can't do much worse than that. Heck I would even take Garlick in that spot especially against lefties. I like Cruz but the way this team is constructed he doesn't fit well IMO.
  13. Honestly I think Nelson Cruz's success in Minnesota had more to do with a down (many teams rebuilding) central division than anything else. Once he was moved to Tampa and faced stiffer competition he wasn't the same player. It appears to be the same in Washington. He also went silent in the playoffs as well. I like Nelson as a player and even more as a great human being but IMO I think we are better off sticking with what we have.
  14. Everybody likes Correa. Falvey, Levine and Jim Pohlad like Correa but if a ten year deal is what it is going to take this FO isn't going to take on that kind of risk even for Correa. I am not sure if they can work out some sort of compromise for seven years but that would have to be as far as I could ever see the Twins going. I really hope Correa likes it here but like Buxton he is going to have to come to some sort of compromise if he wants to stay in Minnesota. I mean if he just has to be the highest paid shortstop in Baseball then sign him for 7 years at 35M per year with team options for years 8, 9 and 10 at 45 Mil per year. Give Correa opt outs after years 3, 5 and 7. Get creative if that is what it takes. At the end of the day if he wants to stay there is going to have to be give and take from both sides.
  15. Man when the best pitcher at the MiLB level was a reliever you know it was a bad day for the system. The pitching for the Twins affiliates has been getting worse as the season moves on. Here's hoping adjustments are made and things get better from here on out. For a while there I thought the Muscles were going to be no hit but they did manage to get going eventually. Not sure why it is so hard to hit in that league but it sure makes Emmanual Rodriguez look like a special talent. Nice to see CES off to a good start with another Home run. Hoping the Monday (Tuesday) blues have worn off and the teams do better today.
  16. If Collier or Parada are there I would take them but I don't think they will be there. I like Berry I really do and I think he will be a Major league talent. His being a switch hitter is a big plus for a power hitter and he should be a fast mover. The thing is the Twins have a lot of guys to play 1st base including Kirilloff who is likely plus defensively there. Also spending a top 8 pick on a 1st Base, DH guy seems like a bad move given in most drafts you can find that type of player in the lower end of the first round, Unless they think that bat is absolutely elite I would skip. I just don't care for Jace Jung or the profile. We have a ton of second base type players with good plate discipline and some pop in the bat. His limitations defensively do not appeal to me at number 8 and in the end I don't see the bat as "that" special. I think Cross is an OK pick but haven't we seen this profile play out poorly for us more often than not. Rooker and Sabato had issues with breaking balls and neither player appears to have fixed that issue. We have a pretty full outfield right now with Wallner coming up making it even more full. While there isn't a ton of depth behind Wallner and the team is very thin on Centerfield depth I still don't love the Cross pick but would be OK with it. To be honest I think Emmanual Rodriguez might be the better play than Cross in the end anyway. I am torn on Daniel Susac. Is the bat really going to work out? He is big for a catcher as well. I just don't know enough about him but I think he could be a good pick on an under slot deal at eight. He doesn't have the Buzz some of the other players have but good offensive catchers are hard to find and he looks like he would be worth the risk if the Twins wanted to go that route. I still like Neto the best though. He can stay at short and he has Arraez type bat to ball skills. He can steal bases and the best all around player the Twins could take at number 8 IMO. Finding good up the middle talent is really hard and when the opportunity is there I think you have to take it. Quality Shortstop and Centerfielders are always gone at the top of the draft. Given how this team looks we won't be picking this high for a while. If none of the other top 7 players fall then Neto would be my pick. He could be a fast mover at a position of almost perpetual scarcity in the Twins system. I think if he is there the Twins will pick him.
  17. For me the narrative was when he first came up almost disbelief that a guy not even in the top 30 could be that good at the MLB level. I think most all fans loved and appreciated what Arraez brought to the team when he first came up. And remember this was pre Polanco when Arraez was the primary second baseman. Then he had that knee injury and with Polanco entrenched at 2nd base things\opinions started to change. He seemed to start the season OK but the knee(s) would flair up and it did seem to affect him at the plate as well. He just wasn't quite as effective a hitter. Also while he could play third it wasn't an ideal spot for him and his defense was average to slightly below at best. His numbers at the plate didn't look that great compared to other 3rd basemen either. They tried him in left but that wasn't a great fit either. He was starting to look like an injury prone OK bat with no great defensive home. Posters like me started to think about the benefits of finding a player that can OPS as much or more than Arraez and play above average defense as well and he seemed on a somewhat downward trend (OPS 2019 .838, 2020 .766, 2021 .733). Then he shows up this year in great shape. The Twins start him off in favorable Righty lefty matchups and suddenly we have the new and improved Arraez who also seems to be able to finally hit for power as well. The Narrative has changed and so have peoples opinions about how good he really is and how he can help this team. I just don't think you can hate or really be a hater on Arraez as I think most everyone respects his plate discipline and the finger wag. I think you can be a doubter though about how he has played the last two years and his all around skill set. He seems to be working out defensively at 1st and if he is needed I think he would be OK at 2nd as well. Arraez put in a lot of work this offseason that is paying off so he can stick it to his doubters this year as he once again looks like one of, if not the best bat (for batting average) in all of baseball. I hope he keeps it going.
  18. I agree. I think the Twins are dealing with enough youth at the MLB level as it is and unless there are more season ending injuries who do you replace on the 26 man for him? There is no room right now without letting someone else go. Unless a lot of bad things happen I just don't see Steer as an option for this year. He does have to be added for next season and if he continues to be as good as he has been he will get his chances next year.
  19. Kind of thought the Twins might lose as I thought Winder might not have his mojo back. Glad to be wrong as he looked good out there and went 6 innings which was nice. Also nice to see Jovani Moran take two innings. He likes to go 3 and 2 a lot but seems to get the job done. Nice bounce back but Cleveland has Beiber for the last game so hopefully the Twins can find a way to win tomorrow.
  20. For the most part I can agree with your OP but I think you chose the wrong words, way wrong words when you talk about people loving or hating Arraez. I can't think of a single poster that hated Arraez as a hitter and pointing out his flaws as even you do in the piece doesn't make people haters but realists. Realistically he isn't a great defensive player. He isn't a fast player and that doesn't mean people "hate" him it just means they they see him objectively. I guess I don't see anything wrong with that. Yes there were and maybe still are those that believe his lack of defense is problematic. Heck I even proposed trading him as he hadn't had an OPS over 770 in two years and his knee's seemed to be causing him issues pretty much every season. That doesn't mean I hated him but sure I can admit I didn't completely appreciate the difference maker he could be with just the bat. He is huge part of this teams success and I am glad the Twins have put him in better positions to succeed. With Cruz's help he seems to be adding power now as well which only makes him more valuable. I just don't think your love hate theme is an accurate portrayal at all.
  21. That is some interesting analysis. The K rate is there. The walk rate is there but the hits just keep on coming making that WHIP a real problem. Gotta say I don't love guys that give up tons of hits like he is but with that K and walk rate it is tempting to see what it would cost to pry him from the A's. Still is this the kind of risk you want to take fighting for a playoff spot? If he continues to be "unlucky" is that how you want to use a 40 spot and trade capital? Not sure I am sold on the timing but I will say that it is certainly something to think about.
  22. I think Gray is one of those pitchers that is going to be around for a while but I wouldn't ever plan on him being healthy for a full season. He really knows how to pitch and like Grienke will find ways to get guys out well into his 30's. That being said I don't know that I would be in a hurry to extend him. Certainly I would wait and see how this whole season pans out and if he remains consistent and fairly healthy then approach him with an extension. Given his age I would think there is a good chance he would take it. I know we have young guys coming up but you can never have too much good pitching and if for some reason you do it is the gold standard for trades so it can help in other ways as well.
  23. Can't really replace a personality like Wes so that is a loss. Having an upbeat personality with lot's of positive energy really can help the confidence of those around you. That coupled with the knowledge he has of the body and he is going to be very, very tough to replace. I agree that his ability to communicate complex things in an easy manner made players more comfortable learning, growing and seeing results. He also like Rocco was really good at team building, being approachable and looking out for the health of the players. That being said there are lot's of great pitching coaches throughout the Majors and the Twins seem to be a team that can find coaches other teams overlook. Their coaches seem to get poached all the time. I hate to see Wes go but I also think the Twins will find a good replacement.
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