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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I'm still a believer. Not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. He does seems to have some of the same issues Varland had. So I get that a pen move makes sense, His biggest issues are getting into long counts and then gets homer prone. Still he is just a put away pitch from being a mid rotation arm. They just need to find him another weapon or improved pitch and he could be really good IMO. I'd give it more time.
  2. Dman
    I might be the only one but I'd have Lackey at number 1. He looks like the better runner. The stronger arm. At least as much power as Jenkins and will play arguably the most important position on the field. I think if just based on projection the ceiling is a bit higher on Lackey IMO. Still there are a lot of things in Jenkins favor. He is the same age as lackey and already at AAA and doing well there. Even at such a young age he has a balanced batting line at the highest level in the minors. Jenkin's looks like the stronger bat moving forward and being young for the level and having the kind of success he is having bodes well for star potential. There's a lot to like. The order is just preference at this point as they are so close. The nice thing is we have two or three top 50 players in the system right now. I agree with the rankings for the most part except for Soto. I was so excited when they picked him. Now I have concerns his arm\shoulder will never hold up. I think until healthy again I'd drop him further down the list. Everything else looks good to me with Tait in danger of dropping with the poor plate discipline. Right now he is young for the level and barely holding his own. Hopefully he can make more improvements. It's a really nice system but won't be top 10 for long as guys will be graduating if not in 2026 for sure in 2027.
  3. Dman
    The only source I saw was Jim Callis via Bleacher report on X. He doesn't have all the Twins players, but ones on TD look like the same ones he tweeted.
  4. Dman
    I have been back and forth on trading Ryan. I guess mainly because there was a point there where this team looked like the misfit toys might actually be something. It just fee;ls like there isn't enough depth for this team to make it IMO. If they did trade Ryan they would need mainly arms back. Not sure what systems can accommodate that. Most I have looked at don't have much that I would be interested in. Maybe Atlanta as they have Cameniti in the top 100 and a couple of other arms that seem interesting. I just think it might be hard for the Twins to trade him at the deadline since their needs are specifically arms. Maybe some three team trade could get it done? On top of that Tom Pohlad seems pretty intent to compete sooner rather than later and might want to run it back in 2027. Will just have to see how badly teams want to pony up for Ryan and see if it's enough to force the Twins hand. It will have to be good arms in return though.
  5. Dman
    I agree with this. If we wind back the clock the Twins had added a lot of arms to the 40 man in 2025. Klein, Morris, Prielipp, Rojas, Abel along with the added 2024 arms of Matthews, Adams, Raya and Festa. That was a lot of new arms on the 40 man and they needed to find out who fit where and get them playing time to see if they were starters or pen arms. They had to know they needed at least the first half of the season to find out who was gonna work where and who wasn't. While I still think they should have tried to sign at least one dominant arm in the off season they seemed to feel Topa, Rogers Orze would be enough. Eventually grabbing Banda at the end. Still I get they likely wanted to be able to try those newly added arms to the 40 man out as you can't keep everyone on there unless they perform. I still think they should build to 2028. They have decent pieces in the pipeline now. Keep getting younger with controllable guys and maybe they can have a longer window for once.
  6. Dman
    I only include him as core as he has several years of control left, but you are correct at 27 next year not young. So if you don't want to include him I am fine with that definition.
  7. Dman
    He might not be. We just don't know yet. I don't love his profile but he has been very successful at AAA and he is better defensively than some players we have. Given Keaschal is playing outfield now along with likely Rodriguez and Jenkins he likely is the 4th outfielder if not traded. Still he is young and controllable and part of the future core until he isn't. That goes for every player I named. They have to succeed once they get to MLB and that is very hard to do. If they do they form the core if not then next man up.
  8. Dman
    Why trade for short term assets especially since we don't know how much baseball there will be in 2027? There's too many holes to fill and they will need prospects to hopefully fill them. They have several core pieces ready to come up in Roden, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and hopefully Houston next year. Along with Gonzalez and Mendez as bat first guys I'd be more inclined to trade for prospects than trade them away. Unless it is the defensively flawed Gonzalez and Mendez. I especially hate trade number 2. Why trade three potential top 100 prospects for a guy who currently has a .695 OPS? Kreidler is currently hitting better than that and we have Culpepper on the way to play short. I think these are the types of moves that leaves a team bad for along time. If you trade for Garcia who is having a good year what are you doing with Lewis? Since Lewis came back from AAA he's been close to an .800 OPS bat so how much are you really gaining here? Trading Gonzalez doesn't bother me too much, but I just don't see the overall value for the team. If you really want to push the chips in on this year I can get behind trade #1, but giving up a possible ace arm, and 5 tool player along with Lewis seems steep to me. Still at least this trade is for arms which is the weakness of this team. If I had to choose one deal that would begrudgingly be it.
  9. Dman
    I agree with you. I think it will be hard as leverage can change depending on the outcome. My two cents on this. First it seems doubtful the owners will get everything they want in the new CBA and with what players said at the all star break (i.e. Baseball, the sport has never been in a better place with current rules in place) it seems changing things will be hard to do. Still one has to calculate what the future looks like both ways if doing deals before that agreement is complete. Unless an entire season is cancelled I don't see the players moving off their position and the PR hit both ways could really hurt the game and everyone's pocket book. Even if changes are made there is going to be some type of grace period for teams to get ready for a cap. Since the Twins are so far away from what the cap would be I don't think negotiating a contract with Bradley should matter too much for either side especially if they only go 5 years. Still it would be nice to know what the rules will be and as others have mentioned on this board some teams are hedging their bets by signing guys to 8 year deals while they can. So teams or player agents are preparing for those changes to happen even if they don't come to fruition. It's going to be an interesting offseason in a bad way IMO.
  10. Dman
    Yeah I think IIRC that in the new CBA free agents signed by another team the max is 5 years and original team is 6 years. So if passed and that is a big if max contract years would be 6. So if teams\players want to go longer than that now might be the last time they can do that. Personally I think the perfect mid point for the Twins and Bradley would be a 5 year deal. He gets his life changing money and doesn't have to worry about losing out on a big payday if his arm gets injured or he regresses. He would only be 29 when that contract is up and if he has performed well would set himself up for an even bigger payday after that. That seems like a decent compromise for both sides if you ask me. Maybe Bradley would want to go longer hard to say, but even if they went 8 years and price was right I'd still think the Twins would\should be interested. The Twins know him best so we'll see if they do anything or not.
  11. Dman
    The Twins have rarely extended starting pitchers. The injury risk as arms creep over the 30 years old mark makes it a tough gamble for small market teams. Even Lopez whom they did extend proves their point getting TJ at exactly age 30. Still even with a 5 year deal Bradley would only be 29 so if they are ever going to get ahead of the game and do it he would be the rare arm that would makes sense for them. The Twins or his agent might want to wait and see how the new CBA works out first, if their is mutual interest I think this is a case where it makes sense for the Twins to take a leap of faith that his arm stays healthy. I don't have a lot of hope it will get done, but it's hard to find good arms. You can see at this deadline pretty much every teams is looking for arms. We'll see what the Twins decide. Maybe Tom has a more open pocket book and appetite for risk.
  12. Dman
    I always thought the Twins should have tried to extend him as he was hitting his arb years. I understand why they didn't though. Jeffers hadn't been that great with the bat and 2023 was really the only exceptional year he had with an .859 OPS. Every other year he was .750 or under for OPS. So good for a catcher but not great. This year he got off to a hot start, but we've seen him get hot before and cool down. Catcher is such a tough position as they get dinged up by foul balls etc. I feel like he has always wanted to get to free agency so maybe the Twins never really had a chance to extend him even if they wanted to. He bet on himself and it looks like it is going to pay off. Still kind of hoping the Twins can get something for him at the deadline, but we'll see.
  13. Dman
    Baseball is crazy hard to predict. IIRC there were a lot of experts that thought Ryan might end up a bullpen arm despite the good minor league numbers. I think he threw his fastball 70 or 80% of the time and there was no precedent for a starter to succeed relying on one pitch so heavily. It's interesting to me now that some experts thought Strotman had better starter traits and was the more likely arm to be a starter and if not then a solid bet to be a MLB reliever. Strotman never even made it to the majors. So the Rays likely thought they were giving the Twins two good to great bullpen arms with a chance to be a 5th starter. Seems reasonable in a trade for a big bat, but predicting what players might become isn't that easy and Ryan turned into an All Star starter. If the Rays knew what he would become they never would have traded him. Ryan does deserve a lot of credit for developing his breaking balls and being less predictable. He was fairly homer prone there for a while. He put in the work and now he will want to get paid. It is a trade that turned out really well for the Twins, but I don't think anyone saw just how good it would be at the time.
  14. Dman
    I think you first need to determine is this team a playoff team, because that sets the trade calculus. If they fall behind and what they did previously looks unsustainable why not trade what assets you have for future value? At the very least getting something for Jeffers and Bell who won't be on the team next year would make sense. They could hang onto Ryan if they think this team will be more complete next year. If they are a wild card team or within a game or two then sure I can see keeping Bell around because he is the kind of deadline bat you pick up when you are going for it. Same for Larnach as it's hard to find an .800 OPS bat even if only against righties. Jeffers is a very odd case scenario even if going for it as it seems they will need to keep three catchers on the roster or give up on the value in years and dollars they got with the Jackson trade. Someone has to go and while Jeffers is a big bat it seems like they should try and get some future value from him before he leaves. If they can get a solid deal it makes sense to trade him regardless IMO. Ryan will never have a higher trade value than at this deadline. If you want a haul this would be the time to do it. If you want go for it then you need to keep him. I will say with Rodriguez, Roden and Jenkins ready for the outfield and Culpepper and Houston on the way I'm not sure how much the Twins need more infield or outfield prospect depth. And I'm not sure what teams would want to give up multiple good arms or have the requisite arms to make a Ryan trade worth it. Trading him certainly would restock the farm with young talent, but losing him is a big hole for this teams chances this year and next. So yeah I can see hanging onto most of these guys or trading all of them. It just depends on how you see the present and the future of this team.
  15. Dman
    Those are some rough numbers on Bryan. Never had and ERA under 5.00 and K rate isn't great either. Also isn't real tall at 6'1". I guess this is one of those small school like the frame and see things we can fix projects? Sleeper really is a sleeper. 6'7" that's a big guy. Nice numbers, but I assume from another smaller school. Very interesting addition there. Seems like an arm that would have been worthy of a draft pick.
  16. Dman
    Jamie, Really appreciate the write ups and draft coverage in general. We are spoiled with your coverage. Thanks for all you do!! I like what the Twins did with their first 6 picks. Once you are out of the top 100 it's pretty hard to find hitters that can make it. Arms taken later will have a better chance, but still long shots as well. Twins managed to get one of the top 3 players in a weaker class and managed a possible future 1st rounder in Wachsmann. That's about all you can ask for in a draft like this. I like Renfrow and LaPour as well. Happy they went arms early and often. Do you happen to know anything about the undrafted free agents the Twins signed? Was wondering who they got outside the draft.
  17. Dman
    I like this draft for the Twins. I feel like they played the odds the way I would. They got one of the top 3 players in this draft and possibly the top player depending on how things work out. The Tinney pick is the one pick I didn't completely understand, but I see the upside. They managed a nice solid college arm in Renfrow and then an arm that might have been a top 20 pick or better in a later draft with their 3rd round pick. So they got a top bat and top arm in this class so hard to argue the first three rounds. I do like LaPour a lot, but do question the elbow. I'm sure the Twins did their due diligence there, but I'm sure that's why other teams shied away. Still it seems like a good gamble in the fourth round. I like Burns and his huge fastball and I like that they went arms that can already throw mid to high 90's heat. This system needs a lot more high octane arms. So I love that they went with arms closer to the top of the draft rather than bottom to gain some upside. I get that some of those arms are there to save money for Wachsmann, but you want to take big swings early on the rare talent that is there and I applaud the Twins for doing that. If they manage to get an MLB bat and starter arm out of this draft anything else will be gravy.
  18. Dman
    The 2027 uncertainty really throws a wrinkle into this. If there is no comp pick then keeping him to the end carries more risk IMO. Still having Ryan for two potential playoff runs is valuable as well. When you think about Twins teams of the past and how we felt we just needed an Ace type arm to compete in the playoffs it just seems hard to trade Ryan. We all know what it takes to pry that type of arm away from another team. It's a good chunk of your farm to do it. It's a risk to keep him for sure especially since 2027 is gonna be all messed up, but you hate to lose your best arm. If they did keep him this team looks like it could be special in 2027. You would have Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp and Ober or Matthews, Abel and Rojas as depth or battling for the last spot. I don't know how well Quick will do at AA, but if does OK there he could also be an option in 2027 and if Gallagher improves he might be a long shot option as well. So quite a bit of starter depth. For bats Culpepper already looks close. Roden is up. Rodriguez is out of options so has to play. Jenkins feels likely to be called up in 2027 for sure. We'll see where Houston ends up at the end of the year but he could be an option in 2027 as well. Keeping Ryan to the end gives this team a real shot in 2027. Or you could trade him at the deadline and get a haul. Role with the arms mentioned above without Ryan and hopefully add at least two new top 100 prospects (hopefully arms) to a pretty deep system and hope Abel, Matthews, Rojas or Quick are up to the task of being top of the rotation arms. It all hinges on what MLB can get done negotiating a new agreement for 2027 and beyond. If things just stay the same I'd trade Ryan. The Twins won't have the revenue stream to afford to pass on the haul they could get trading him. If there is a change though that allows the Twins to spend more money keeping him wouldn't be bad as they they would have money to spend to shore things up once he leaves. It's tough to say what's best as there's plenty of risk both ways. First things first let's see where this team sits at the end of July.
  19. Dman
    Yeah 2028 seems most likely. The Twins will want to make sure he is ready before adding him to the 40 man. Those 40 man spots are so valuable you need to be certain he is ready if you are going to add him early. From what I understand he has a good swing that covers the zone. I think Houston was described that way as well and they both had questions about the level of power they would have at the MLB level. I think the odds are pretty good he follows a similar path to Culpepper and Houston. Catcher is a position that is really hard on your body so the one caveat would be injury. So many weird foul tips and being dinged up can make it harder to perform at that position than any other. If he can stay healthy I'd say 2028 is a good bet.
  20. Dman
    Been thinking about these same scenarios myself. This team needs to perform out of the break against a good hitting Cubs team and a really tough Cleveland team. If they manage to stay around .500 after that they play the A's and KC to try and make up some ground. After the deadline they face a gauntlet in August. With Seattle, Brewers, Phillies, Atlanta and finishing the month against the White Sox. There are some easier teams mixed in, but it's gonna be hard to stay around .500. I don't know how good or bad Detroit is gonna be, but they are on a hot streak right now so they could be tough down the stretch if they don't sell at the deadline. Like Nick said each piece they would trade seems integral to trying to stay in the race, but each piece either blocks a player the team needs to develop and if not traded gets this team no future value. One side of my brain thinks they've got guys coming back and the pen might be bit stronger than it's been all year. Ober is back and the offense has helped carry the team this far. They just might be able to do it. The other side of my brain says even if they eek out a playoff spot this doesn't really look like a playoff team especially the pen. It feels like a few too many holes to truly make a run in the playoffs. Trade assets if the price is right on at least Jeffers, Larnach and Bell. Bring up the young guys and let's get ready for 2027 when we can hopefully strengthen this team especially defensively to be a true contender. I don't know which way I want to go. Tom P. seems to want to have a winning season regardless so odds are they keep this team together and go on a run unless of course they go on a losing streak to the deadline and are just too far out of it for that to make sense. We'll see where things are at in two weeks, but I can't make up my mind with them this close.
  21. Dman
    Yeah, I bet against Jeffers and was wrong and they gave him a below average grade with the bat. I am hopeful Tinney can figure it out. It took Larnach a looong time to adjust to breaking stuff. It's not easy. Tinney's power potential is exciting though. If he can hit some and keep that K rate below 30% that's a bat I can live with. It's just that we've seen this type of profile fail so much it's hard to get too excited until he passes the AA test. They'll have refined breakers and off speed at that level so if it is still a weakness it will show up there.
  22. Dman
    It's looking pretty brutal for Tait IMO. I get that he is young, but if he can't control the zone he is going nowhere. Free swingers always look good early, but once they are found out why even throw them strikes? They will swing away at anything remotely close. He's got time to figure it out, but things don't look good right now. I have some hope for Tinney mainly because he does walk a good amount. Still it's a long road when you can't hit any breaking stuff. The power is very real. he could start out hot at the lower levels, but I'd bet he stalls by AA. I don't know if anyone has watched Jimenez, but that's a big boy. Not sure the athleticism will be there but we'll see. Hopefully Lackey stays healthy and moves quickly as he looks like about the only thing they've got that seems legit for the position. Tinney might get there since he has a big arm and power bat, but the rest really look like long shots to me. Things can change with development, but Tait and Jimenez look like it's gonna take time if they even get there. Daiw isn't really a catcher. Olivar isn't a MLB catcher. Cardenas might be a backup catcher, but nothing to get too excited about. So Lackey was needed in a bad way.
  23. Dman
    To add onto Jenkins likely not in center that moves him down for me since he would not be an up the middle player. I have Lackey number 1 with likely elite defense and at least good offense with potential for great offense at a very important up the middle position especially defensively. I could go either way with Culpepper and Jenkins. For me it depends on if you see Culpepper as a shortstop or 3rd baseman. If short then I would have him slightly ahead of Jenkins. For me to have Jenkins at number one I'd want to see more home run power. I could be selling Jenkins short and Lackey hasn't done anything in pro ball yet. Still these lists are potential based and there is more value in up the middle positions. So for right now Lackey would be number one for me. Though I think you could put them in any order as they are so close.
  24. Dman
    I am with you. I didn't see that pick coming. Here were my initial thoughts. "I was surprised by the Tinney Pick mainly because it was back to back catchers, but looking more into his profile he is just the latest exit velocity darling the Twins like to draft in the second round these days. It started in 2024 with Amick and they did it again with a high school pick in 2025 with Quentin Young granted he had more athleticism. It's another plus plus power bat who likely K's a lot and has a lot of trouble with breaking pitches. Obviously the Twins think he can improve that or they wouldn't have taken him at 43. While some question his framing he had OK caught stealing numbers according to Overslot: "Behind the dish, Tinney suffers some of the same woes as tall, big-body backstops before him. He struggles to get low in the crouch. Framing and stealing the low strike has been a challenge. He does have plus to double-plus arm strength and has been very strong throwing out would-be base-stealers. Teams have been aggressive trying to run against him and he's consistently posted some of the more impressive caught-stealing rates in the country." Tinney was rated around pick 60 by consensus. I think BA had him at 45 and Over-slot had him at 82. So I can see that if they liked him they figured he wouldn't last to their next pick. Still I'd think there could be some slot savings their but we'll see. One has to wonder if the Twins were looking at catchers down the board in case Lackey wasn't there at number 3. Tinney fits a lot of things the Twins like in a hitters profile as he can take walks and his exit velo's are top of the scale. He's a bit of a Jeffers with a better arm if you ask me so not too surprised they fell in love with him and took with their second round pick. The bat still has to play though or they get nothing from this pick if he can't cover the zone and hit breaking stuff. Catchers don't have to hit much to have value and his profile in many places compared him to Hunter Goodman. We'll see how it turns out. There were some nice arms in that area and I also liked the Center fielder Ty Head to balance things out, but if he is another Jeffers I like this pick just fine." It's usually not a good sign when they have no feel to hit breaking balls. I'd guess he's not gonna be a fast mover, but the The Twins know more than we do. Let's hope they are right.
  25. Dman
    I don't see the Twins adding Ross in season with Culpepper this close he seems like the better add as he is a for sure starter. If the Twins fall out of the race maybe they would add him as They'll have to make a decision on Ross for Rule V. Given his numbers and flexibility he could be gone if they don't add him. I don't think CJ is sure thing either unless they fall out of it. He too would to be added to the 40 man and battling for that spot(s) with Hidalgo and Pasqualotto. CJ has been better than most at AAA, but not overly dominant IMO. The outfield looks pretty full right now. Barring a trade it seems unlikely we see Rodríguez all that soon. He's going to have to a rehab stint and if the Twins are still fighting for a spot unlikely to mess with what they have. He needed to beat Roden there to get his shot right away IMO.
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