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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. I always felt like they kind of slow boated Paredes through the system. For an arm they liked to use in the toughest situations, as he generally came through, it is surprising it took him this long to get to AAA. I am sure there are legit reasons as I don't know what his health was like and what he was working on at the various levels. Still all I know is he has been a true fireman throughout his time with the Twins with K rate and fastball velocity being his main weaknesses. I really do think he has a chance to be a good pen arm and with 103 innings this year maybe there is starter potential in there as well. Happy to see him on this list. I've been up and down on Ohl. He has always been an extreme strike thrower. HIs changeup is a weapon whether he has enough to go with that I don't know, but given his results he has a good shot at a pen role.
  2. I go back and forth on the doom and gloom. Lot's of teams had trouble with getting bats going this year so I don't feel like the Twins are completely alone there. Still there are signs that Lewis, Martin and Lee are improving and could have better years next year. Not to mention they have Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Culpepper and maybe Jenkins. With some interesting non top 30 bats at AAA in Fedko, McCusker, and Eeles. So there is room for change beyond the players mentioned in the article. Pitching for now we still have the big three with SWR ascending and a bumpy Zebby behind with new additions Bradley and Abel to vie for that 5th spot. If they keep everyone over the offseason that is. Behind them are Morris who has looked pretty dominant since coming back (except for K rate). Prielipp and Rojas who are lefties. Raya, Klein and MaCleod as arms that could be better next year. So the cupboard isn't bare by any means. I get the hopelessness though. After the deadline Ryan hasn't been as sharp, Ober keeps having one really bad inning with a velocity drop. Pablo never really made it back. The young arms have been shelled at times. They have had leads only to have the pen blow them up. This hasn't been a good team since the deadline and it wasn't good team most of the year given they were sellers at the deadline. As for sticking with players too long we have seen the other side that of that as well. Rooker wasn't a great fit when we had him and he turned things around and he'd be a welcome bat on the team now. I still like Larnach and I think his bat will get better, but as stated it took too long to get just mediocre results. Too much young blood behind him now so likely gone. Still you have to give young players time to adapt. You can't give up on them too early. Bottom line this is a team in transition. They are going to have to let the younger players develop. I like that they have finally started listening to this board and have started looking for players that are more athletic that should lead to better defense and offense by having the ability to take an extra base and steal bases. They are headed in the right direction, but it might take time like all of next year time to get "better". We'll see, but I do still have several sets of rose colored glasses so I should be covered for any disappointment along the way.
  3. DSL players are always so hard to project moving forward as the stats mean very little and they are generally so young. I thought it was a good pickup to get Villoria in the Bader trade. Pair him with Santiago and the Twins could have two good young arms coming up. When they get stateside they will help supplement the drafted arms at A ball which will hopefully create a wave of arms. The notes on Santiago are very encouraging. I hope he is the next big thing for the Twins, but we will likely have to wait a while to find out just how good he can be.
  4. Control might be a problem but I like Ramos's age and line better. Nice to see Garica turning things around as you need arms from the FCL to feed A ball.
  5. Congrats to the Kernal's!! Always seems hard for the first half winner to come out on top in these second half matchups as a lot of the guys that got them there moved up a level or levels. It's tough to win a championship. Would be nice to see them get another one.
  6. Lawyerson has always had decent numbers, but when he gets hit he gets hit hard. Will be very interesting to see how his stuff plays at the highest level. I wish him the best.
  7. Houston and Quick have a chance to be fast movers. Depending on the lockout I could see them being ready by 2027. Young has amazing size for an 18 year old. Right now his swing too often looks late to me. It might take some time. Still he currently has the agility to play short so he could grow into an amazing athlete in time. Can he get the bat the ball enough? that will be the question. I still like Soto and Bohorquez for this list. Both pretty young arms that should make an impact as they move up. It might be early, but I would have JImenez in that group as well. He has been obliterating A ball and that's not easy to do. I am intrigued by Agbayani. Maybe not enough tools in the end to be a star player, but the bat might carry him. If I squint I could see Beltre added to this list. as well as Castellanos and Villoria. They are so far away though it hard to say what they will do. The Twins have a good amount of high upside players, but the thing about most high upside players is they often times have high downside as well.
  8. For all the worry about Amick;s power he has been really good at the plate all year. He was super clutch with men on base early in the year as well. If he hadn't gotten injured it looked like he might have gotten promoted with Culpepper. Despite just 4 HR's his OPS is .880 which is outstanding for that level. Personally I was more worried about Amick's in zone contact than home run power. The reason he fell out of the first round was that teams weren't sure he could make enough contact. It looks like the Twins gamble might pay off, but he has a high BABIP and hasn't seen the breakers he will get at AA. Still you have to be happy with season he has had IMO. Really excited to see Carpenter with an excellent outing against a good team. A playoff bound team. His lack of control has really hurt him this year. Hopefully he has finally put it all together so he can gain enough confidence to throw strikes more often. He is young, but am hoping for a breakout year from him next year. Agbayani seems like a gamer. Nice to see the young man hit the ground running. I have high hopes for him, but will know more after his first full pro year. Nice to see him getting on base though.
  9. Maybe it's the injuries but I feel like Amick has been under-rated this year. I think going into the year we were worried about him just making contact at the pro level and he has a .300 average with a good walk rate and not too out of line K rate. Yeah he was supposed to hit more HR's, but I have to believe they wanted to see less in zone swing and miss and I am guessing he modified his approach some to get there. His contact rate still isn't even in zone as he has a very high BABIP sustaining his numbers. Still I am bullish on him and have no concerns about him getting to power when he wants to. I would like him to work on more in zone contact, but maybe he just focuses on power now. Hard to say. At any rate its been a small sample size, but he has had a great first pro year.
  10. Hard to believe Klein isn't in the top 30. His numbers at AA were really good and he is at AAA at 23 which a pretty young age for a pitcher especially an undrafted one. Morris was more consistent at AA with a better walk rate but Klein has a better K rate with more control issues. Still he doesn't appear to be far behind Morris and he isn't even ranked. It's getting to be a tough top 30 to crack, but I still think he belongs there.
  11. I can see now why Tampa was so frustrated with Bradley. One game he looks like a mid rotation starter and the next time out he looks very hittable. I don't think his fastball works all that well except up in the zone. Lot's of hard hit balls to the gaps. His Curve looked great last night, but most everything else seemed to be a work in progress. Bummer game for Adams. He has one nice inning and then implodes in the next one. I still think he has the stuff to make it in the pen, but after last night he has me doubting myself. The bullpen has lost a lot of games since the deadline but nice to see the bats doing better recently,. Hopefully that continues. We all knew it was going to be tough to win games with not much in the pen and that has proven to be true. Still the reason they sold at the deadline was to get better next year or maybe after the likely lockout. We'll see. If they are this bad next year though it really is gonna be hard to stay interested.
  12. I know Paredes doesn't have elite stuff, but he generally gets elite results. This was an off month for him IMO as he had several tough outings. Despite all that he still made the top 5. I agree with the OP on Bragg. He has been pretty dominate all year and to move up a level and not miss a beat speaks to the dominance his stuff can have. Hopefully just a tweak away from being a difference maker. We'll see. Hoopes is interesting as well and I love guys that can throw heat like he can. I'm gonna be watching him closely as he moves up.
  13. I honestly thought Chourio spent more time at AAA, but when I looked it was only 6 games I believe and then they signed him to that long term deal. Maybe that is what it would take to get Boras onboard for a Jenkins deal? If the Twins are going to take a risk this seems like a player to do that with. The stats back him up all the way. As a young player it seems hard to turn down guaranteed money to get an early start and injury protection those eight years and still be under 30 for the next big contract. He's young enough to make that work. Still with 2026 up in the air and likely a lost season and then the likely season long lockout it might not make much difference. It's a tough call both ways if you ask me.
  14. I guess I don't see the rush to get him there and he is going to earn his way there soon enough. Right now he isn't lighting up AAA pitching and we all know the jump to MLB pitching is enormous. Once he dominates at AAA for a while we can talk about time frames. I get it though all his counting stats look balanced so he doesn't have many weaknesses as a hitter other than maybe power, but that always comes with age and experience. Any weaknesses he does have will be exploited at the MLB level for sure. Breaking stuff is generally a challenge for all hitters and those pitches only get better as you move up. He'll have his struggles just have to see how he handles them. He has been incredibly young at every level and due to injury's had limited playing time and still has been a top of his league player so far. As mentioned he is on a good track to be an elite player. Still I'd see how 2026 goes at AAA and if he kills it they will have no choice but to bring him up. If he struggles then it will just take more time.
  15. Walker Jenkins 20 and at AAA. He is still number oneKaelen Culpepper Up the middle shortstop gets extra points for me due to defense. Tait would be here based strictly on potential, but I am biased a bit on CulpepperEduardo Tait So far he looks like and up the middle player. HIs arm gives him a chance to be elite defensively especially as MLB moves to the auto K zone. Exit velo's are crazy good. Could argue for the number one ranking if you want. Still high school catcher scar me so three is high enough for me.Luke Keaschall The bat is ready. If he had more value defensively I would have him higher. He is has everything I like in a hitter and his speed is a nice asset as well.Emmanuel Rodriguez He is up the middle but injured so much it's hard to see him realizing hi s potential. I had kept him at number 2 for longer than most, but dropping him until he can stay healthy.Mick Abel It's amazing stuff but he needs something more for lefties. I still love the arm. I think experience is all he needs.Kendry Rojas Have to say it's an interesting lefty arm and he is young for AAA. Still looks relievery to me, but will see. If starter then he looks like mid rotation.Dasan Hill Hill has lost a little shine with the control problems but his potential is still high as I haven't seen a high school arm in the Twins system ever do this well from the start.Connor Prielipp The arm held up. Hoping he can find a way to get more K's and give up less hard contact.Charlee Soto Injured but potential still high.Gabriel Gonzalez If Gonzalez ran better I would have him higher. It's an amazing bat and a plus arm. He could be a starter but we'll see if he ends up a platoon bat.Marek Houston Hard to believe I have him at 12. His swing covers a lot of the zone. He just has to recognize and hit breaking and offspeed stuff. He's off to a good start.Riley Quick Haven't seen him pitch yet, but he is power pitcher and I think he improves the control being further out from TJ.Brandon Winokur He had OK year again. I do think he needs to repeat high A. The power is there. He has been making more contact. Still the K rate isn't great and there is a lot of swing and miss. Still work to do. Next year might be a big year for him.Quentin Young Haven't watched him, but teams were concerned enough about his lack of contact for to last to the Twins 2nd round pick. It plus power and arm. A super high ceiling and very low floor. For now next to Winokur as they are similar but Winokur has better tools.Marco Raya I'd have him higher but he is so up and down and I don't know what to think.Andrew Morris He's looked better after coming back. Still would like to see that K rate higher but he has the stuff to make it.Hendry Mendez Its too many ground balls but everything else checks out. I like power potential. If he had better defensive potential he's be higher.Khadim Diaw Best catching prospect we've had in years. I'd have him higher but injured too much and need to see him at AA first.CJ Culpepper Might be a relief arm, but he should be a good one.
  16. I tend to agree with Royce at least on changing your swing mid season, not the money part. I seem to remember both Aaron Hicks and Buxton getting so much swing advice it made them worse. In the end they needed to think less and react more. To change a swing it takes ton's of reps and you need to maintain timing etc. That seems best worked on in the offseason to get it all down rather than bat horribly as you try to figure it out in season. While I get what he is saying money wise. He might have larger issues than arb raises. There is competition for his spot not far away. If he doesn't perform he might not be a part of this team and might have trouble catching on somewhere else. It all gets fixed though if he just hits better and while he had some good months in June and July his August numbers have been miserable. Maybe don't change the swing mid season but it sure looks like something has to change or he loses value altogether. I think we can find someone who can do better than a .664 OPS. It still feels like he pressing to me. When he first came up the confidence was there and he let the game come to him. He was more selective at the plate. He just hasn't been the same this year. I still think he could have a beastly bat, but he needs to be a tougher out than he has been and he needs to barrel more balls. If I'm Royce I'd do whatever I can to get better.
  17. I agree they should only trade one and I would trade Pablo because if they are keeping payroll low it would be nice to have some room to add players if needed. Top of the rotation starters don't grow on tree's. There is a reason there are only 20 to 30 top tier arms in the league year to year. It's hard to be that consistent and injury free for an entire year. If you want to compete in the playoffs you need at least one and these days likely two dominant starters to have a chance. I get that maybe the bats might not quite be ready in 2026, but if they do catch fire later in the year it sure would be nice to have the starting pitching to compete so keeping at least one of Pablo or Ryan makes sense to me. If not there's always the deadline or next offseason to complete a trade for the other arm. There are so many young players coming up there doesn't even seem to be much room to get them MLB experience so trading for more seems a bit silly unless they could pry away someone with close to ready star potential from another team. This team still has strong starting pitching and they can improve the pen in the offseason and have a lot of interesting young arms they could try there. Hitting is the gamble they would have to take for a successful season next year. Still I would hedge my bets which is why I agree with you that they should only trade one of the two in the offseason.
  18. I hope Hill is alright. Probably a good time to shut him down no matter what now. He has had an amazing first pro year for a high school arm. He greatly exceeded any expectations I had for him this year. I just hope no ligament damage for his arm. Gonzalez looks to be conquering AAA. batting average at .300 and and .800 OPS. Looking pretty much like he did in his other stops this year. I am excited for next year to see it all translates to MLB. Culpepper appears to be back on track.
  19. Abel had the first four or five hitters at 2 strikes and couldn't put them away. He had them hitting it on the ground but they all found holes. Kind of Jax like in some ways. He's missing something. I don't know what it is, but it's just too easy for hitters to get contact and when balls find holes it gets ugly fast. I'm still a believer. He threw a couple of sweepers and had decent results. Still he can't seem to throw strikes with the breaking stuff when he needs to and with too many fastballs you are bound to get burned eventually. There is work to do. Hopefully they help him find better control. Bradley looked really, really good. Mid rotation good tonight. He went after guys and had good depth on his pitches. If he can keep this up he could really help this team. Hard to believe the position player looked better throwing 55mph than Abel, Kriske and Cabrera. If you're those guys that has gotta sting. I know Canbrera has been bad but I still like the arm and delivery. Hoping they can get him to a better spot. Would be nice to have another lefty.
  20. Yeah probably a little harsh going with the Miller comments as he has better power for sure. Still the result could be the same unless he figures something out. Even though he is young, the longer it takes the less likely it is to happen so that is my concern.
  21. Man Rosario with an 1,190 OPS almost 1.200 for August with 10 HR's this month. Absolute monster level numbers as he passes McCusker (22) and looks to catch and Fedko (26) for the HR lead. If you would have told me he would have an .860 OPS after he put up a .500 OPS the month of April I wouldn't have believed it. Just shows you how good he has been since April. There isn't much separating him from Fedko other than one bad month early in the year. There's going to be some tough 40 man decisions this year. Morris must have heard me complaining about his K rate, lol. I guess he showed me. That was elite stuff he had last night and the pitching line showed just how dominate he was 1 hit, no walks and 8K's in 4 innings work. I might have to chew on my put him in the pen comments. More of that and he is gonna be hanging with Matthews again.
  22. For a minute there it looked like he was going to go on a heater the end of the year like last year and then he dropped back in August. July he had an .800 OPS which seemed to indicate he might be ready to move up. August he is below a .700 OPS with very little power. His power stroke has left him this month and if you look as his body of work overall this year I don't see how they can promote him. I don't think it matters where they play him in the field. He must like being on the dirt or they wouldn't play him there. He's always had contact issues and we all knew hitting the ball consistently was likely going to be a problem for him. It looks like it is going to take time. Hopefully this isn't another Miller type situation where he just can't identify pitches well enough\make good contact in zone.
  23. Yeah Rosario is a tough one. I've had them adding him and not adding him with his monthly up and down stats. Still an 1.100 OPS so far for August is hard to ignore. He's not gonna be a plus defender most likely but he could be neutral or slightly better. He moves pretty well and has stollen a decent number of bases. Still it's only AA and he has been inconsistent month to month. With so many outfielders on the 40 man I don't see them adding him, but he is young enough to be sniped via rule V with a real upside power stroke from the right side. I still like Fedko's profile better right now as it is more balanced. Position players generally don't get taken, but it only takes one.
  24. The thing is even if they make it to the second worst team it doesn't guarantee they will pick 2nd as the lottery will likely change the order as it has every year so far I believe. Still they do seem likely to manage a top 5 pick. I do think they will go with a hitter rather than arm if they pick that high unless there is an arm dominant enough for them to feel safer picking said arm. Another shortstop wouldn't be terrible. Culpepper can play third very well. Houston may or may not have enough bat to hold onto a starting role versus utility player. They could also move someone to the outfield if needed or trade for what they need if all three worked out. Still I would really like a plus to plus, plus runner for center field. Buck can't stay there forever and it takes time to move through the levels. Hopefully a centerfielder will make sense around their pick. If not then short will do just fine. They took a lot of arms this past draft which I am excited about, but think that means they will focus on bats in the 2026 draft. Most all of their highly rated bats could be off prospect lists as early as next year. While there are some bats behind them a lot of them are higher risk\reward type players in Amick, DeBarge, Winokur, Young, Beltre, Jimenez, and Tait. Whereas after the trades and now this years draft they look more stocked on the pitching side. I know it's always BPA and the Twins like balanced drafts. I just think they will lean hitter early unless there is an arm like Quick that falls. Taking arms high has never really worked out for the Twins. If they have a top 5 pick I don't see them going arm, but will have to wait and see how the board looks closer to the draft to be sure.
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