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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    A lot of boards won't get updated until the beginning of May. He is going to drop as it doesn't appear the swing and miss has improved. Still keep in mind Honeycutt had similar problems in 2024 and still was pick number 20. Lebron is tooled up and will look like a more decent risk later on. He looks to be back half of the first round unless teams just don't think the swing and miss is fixable. If that is the case he might fall into the second round kind of like Amick.
  2. Dman
    I like Flora and he seems at least for the moment to be top 4 or 5 on most boards. I don't know that I see a Skenes like path there, but he has top of the rotation stuff. You can never have too many potential top of the rotation arms in the system, but I just don't see Flora as the Twins pick at three. I think the Twins will go with a bat at three. You look at the farm system and current team and this team is in need of impact bats more than arms. Given that Cholowski, Emerson and Lackey appear to be top 3 I'd say the pick will be one of those players. Cholowski still appears to be the favorite to go number 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago cut a deal with Lackey. My reasoning would be that they just took a good defensive shortstop in Carlson last year and Catchers with Lackeys skills seem be a once a decade type of player. It is incredibly hard to find a catcher with potential elite defense and offense especially one who could play a solid third base or left field if needed. If they could get a player like that and save money I think they do that. It looks like Chicago will be in the running for another high pick next year and given how many shortstops there are at the top of boards it will be easier for them to take another crack next year. The odds of finding a catcher like Lackey might take another ten years. The Twins should be happy with any of the top three bats and if they can save a little money they could still get an ace level high school arm later in the draft. If they skip on the bat early going with Flora they will be hard pressed to find an elite bat in the second round. That is why so many teams go hitter first in the first round IMO. The Twins have found valuable arms later in the draft but I can't think of anyone outside the second round that has made it on the Twins with the bat. I like Flora and he might be worthy of the third overall pick, but I just don't see him jumping in over the top three bats.
  3. Dman
    Yeah he was looking great to start the season. Those hard throwers just seem to end up needing TJ. We'll see how things work out. Hopefully rest does the trick. He's got the stuff to be successful. Just needs to get healthy.
  4. Dman
    Nice to see Oliveros on his way back. Feels like the entire system is short on start on starting arms except maybe A ball. Hoping more arms come off that seven IL.
  5. Dman
    I watched him play in left a few games ago and he looked really shaky back there. Granted one ball was hit to the wall and as a player you try not to hit the wall and get injured, but he he almost missed a routine pop fly as well. I don't see a great future for him in the outfield. Maybe they want to give him more reps out there to get better?? Still I don't think he will be a plus or even neutral defender out there given what I have seen so far. I think first\DH is his long term home. I guess it can't hurt to keep trying him there, but I would give him more reps at first.
  6. Dman
    Yeah I mean when you go 2 for 5 (.400) with a home run and a double and you lower your batting average to .468 you are in elite company.
  7. Dman
    Ellwanger with that bendy curve I think, is what was baffling hitters. He also did a nice job getting them to hit balls into the dirt. The stuff looks good. I mean not many pitchers have a .79 WHIP with more walks than hits given up. He has only given up 3 hits in 11.2 innings. That is incredibly stingy. I haven't seen a bat as hot as Ross in a long time. I mean he is hitting everything hard. On top of it just a 12% K rate and a nice 14% walk rate. He has it all working right now. If he has figured something out he is a legit shortstop candidate along with Culpepper and company, Still a small sample, but he is looking great to start the season. I am hoping the 19 year old Beltre to continues to find contact. It would be nice for the Twins to finally have a young International signing ready to move up quickly.
  8. Dman
    Nice to see Buxton get his groove back. The warmer weather agrees with him. Am I crazy or does it look like we might have three top of the rotation starters in Ryan, Bradley and Abel? If they can continue to pitch this well I don't see why we wouldn't match up well with pretty much any team in the league. Not sure if they can stay this hot with the bats, but if you get Buxton and Keaschall going along with Jeffers, Bell and Martin with some other guys mixed in this lineup looks like it might be OK. Only thing that feels a ways off is the pen. I mean they have been fine so far but they still do appear to be the weak link. It's a long season and a lot has to go right, but they are starting to make me believe.
  9. Dman
    Point well taken, but I think the angst is more about the fact that pretty much every lefty you mentioned doesn't hit left handed pitching that well and right handers generally do a better job of that. Not sure that's the case for the other teams players. You could argue that since lefties generally will see more right handed pitching it makes sense to carry more of them I guess, but we see that most teams do value roster balance in their lineups so I don't think people clamoring for that are off base. While I appreciate you adding Clemens to the list as someone who has played outfield I don't see him as a legit outfielder. It should be noted that Mendez is still playing in the outfield and he is on the 40 man so he should count as well IMO. Personally I think the Twins have too many outfielders on their 40 man, but that's just me.
  10. Dman
    I never in my wildest dreams imagined this offense was capable of what they have done the last week. This defies all expectations. Baseball has crazy streaks so I guess enjoy the ride. Getting this team to score runs the last few years seemed like pulling teeth. These blowouts are just so much fun as everyone seems to be doing well and the wins are piling up. Keep it going guys. You have us watching.
  11. Dman
    Yeah I agree. Fedko would need to "prove" he can crush AAA to be added. That would take at minimum one month of solid production and likely two. 40 man spots are valuable and they already have Roden, Gonzalez and Rodriguez taking up 40 man spots. Most of us felt they kept too many outfielders on the 40 man as is with Larnach being mentioned as movable in the offseason and Outman considered a potential DFA. I'd think the Twins will be prudent and make sure they feel good to great about Fedko before adding him. There is a lot to like about Fedko. He has plenty of power and the walk rate is good with solid K rates at about 20% through his career. There are a fair number of parallels between Fedko and Roden in my opinion. With Roden winning the K rate race at right around 10% instead of 20%. Fedko bats righty though which would help keep things balanced. It could be argued he is no worse than Outman, but I would still take a wait and see approach at this point as he is unlikely to be better than Rodriguez, Gonzalez and ultimately Jenkins so he needs to prove some things first even to be considered for that 4th outfielder spot.
  12. Dman
    I love a batter with a keen eye who can make a pitcher work and get on base. It is fun to watch when he is at the plate. As others have noted not making outs and finding your way to first base is an important skill. Still this game is primarily measured by OPS for good reason. We'll see how things shake out the rest of this year, but he is off to a very good start and if he can be a better than average player anywhere then I'm good with whatever his approach is.
  13. Dman
    Three home runs and a triple in one game for Fedko. What a game. Hopefully he is back on the HR track. If he finds some consistency maybe he could replace Outman? Langenberg continues to impress. He is looking like a legit arm. He has only given up one walk so far this year. 17 K's in just under 12 innings, Just needs to stay consistent to move up.
  14. Dman
    Man the Twins really needed to start hot with the fanbase on the sour side. Now if Atlanta can do us a favor and help us get into a tie for first place in the division that would be even better. Then at least we can say the Twins were in first place at some point this season. It has been a ton of fun watching this team the last week, but it seems like the baseball gods are giving this team a lift. I'm not complaining, but I'm still not a believer just yet. The way Morris came out in his first inning I could see him being a good bullpen arm. We'll see how he does as teams get more info on him, but he has to happy with his debut. Hoping for just as many wins next week.
  15. Dman
    Some players just aren't at their best in cold weather and it looks like St Paul has a lot of them, lol. As mentioned by others I am surprised by the mediocre play of the starters which was supposed to be a strength and most hitters haven't faired well either. I do think the cold plays into it, but for a team that on paper looked like a juggernaut this has been a disappointing start to the season. Nice to see Witchita getting some hits. They don't have a ton of great arms for starters and to have the bats cold as well could make that team tough to watch.
  16. Dman
  17. Dman
    I have been amazed at how well the umpires are calling games these days. Most of the calls I have seen missed have been by the sliver of the baseball. Just no way the human eye can get those calls right all the time IMO. Even some that are just half an inch off can be tough to see with the human eye. It feels like ABS is training the umps to be better. Catchers have the best view for strike and ball calls and even they are wrong at times about calls. I do feel like ABS has widened the zone especially the bottom of the zone. As if changeups and sliders aren't hard enough to battle now low fastballs get called as strikes as well. Still it seems most players have enjoyed that the zone is the zone. I haven't heard many complaints from the players. I think getting just two challenges helps make it so you can't challenge every close call. I like the system as it stands now and the challenges add a new dimension of the game as a check on umpires and the ability to make a wrong call right. It seems to be a rule change players and fans both are on board with and one that I think make the game better.
  18. Dman
    In a world where the only ripple effect would be swapping Correa for Lee then I would say Yes the Twins would be better off. In the reality of the Twins limiting payroll I think it's tougher to say. Correa was a notoriously slow starter in April with the bat. His skills were declining at short. The Twins are in position to get younger so I think they made the right decision trading a very good player away for more roster and financial flexibility. We'll never know now as things are what they are. In a world where the Twins can spend like the Dodgers I would be more upset about it.
  19. Dman
    Great debut by Quick. I assume they build him up at A ball before moving him up. Every hitter was late on his fastball as best I could tell. He is going to need better competition. Fort Meyers has really strong starting pitching. Ellwanger, Moring and Smith all have ERA's of zero right now with good K rates and low WHIP's. Could be several arms in line to move up sometime in May. Dameury Pena is off to a hot start. Last year I was beginning to wonder about his bat. Looks like maybe he has found a way to make better contact? Will have to wait and see. Normally guys get a high OPS using Slugging to get there. Pena has .600 OBP and only .400 slugging. Hard to keep a .500 batting average going with zero K's, but just nice to see him off to a good start. With the high K rate I was already thinking Young was going to be in A ball for while. Then of coarse he goes three for four. I just want to see him make contact and keep those K;s down. He has plenty of power already. Once he masters contact he could be a beast. So here's hoping he keeps those hits coming. Gonna have to keep my eye on Hidalgo again,. I kind of gave up on him after last years results. He has a tendency to give up runs so if he can reign that in his pitches have good movement so he has a chance to make it. Hill really looked rough last night. A solid first inning and then it felt like he couldn't reach back and throw strikes anymore. Was lucky to get as far as he got. Same for Bohorquez. He always seems to run out of gas by the third or fourth inning. Still early in the season so we'll see. Was just hoping for more from both those arms. Kendle is really looking good. The guy is built like tank, runs well and been a really tough out at the plate. Not exactly young at 24, but he looks a bit like a Fedko type player. Lots of good performances last night,
  20. Dman
    Just when I said he couldn't hit he is hitting like crazy tonight. I guess he wanted to shut me up.
  21. Dman
    He looks too slow to the ball in some of those at bats IMO. Man does he have some serious power though. The ball comes off his bat like a rocket. Given what I am seeing it is going to take quite a while to get that bat going. He's looked pretty good at short as well. The arm is strong as advertised. Still I just don't see that hand eye coordination in the batters box that gets him to MLB. He has time to improve, but it looks like a long road to me.
  22. Dman
    I think I'd be pretty disappointed if Quick and Ellwanger weren't at High A sometime in June. I'd probably include Moring and Reitz in there as well. I'm just looking at Gallagher from last year and the Cubs started him at High A. He skipped low A completely and made it to AA in his first pro season and he was a 6th round draft pick. I'm not saying the Twins need to be super aggressive with Quick or Ellwanger, but if they have decent control I don't think the competition at Low A is better than High for their development. I do agree the facilities at Fort Meyers are likely the best in the Twins system and I would keep them there through at least the cold month of April but would expect by mid May to June they get moved up. With Barr, Fang and Kaminska on the 60 day IL hopefully they would be ready to step in around June when those guys move on. So yeah for the college guys that are pitching well I'd move them up as fast as it makes sense. Gallagher made it AA his first full pro season. That is the bar I would be looking for from our top picks. Not saying they have to be pushed to AA, but that if things go well that is where they should be by the end of the year IMO.
  23. Dman
    Ellwanger and Moring have yet to give up a run to start the season and their stats are pretty similar. Moring with the better K rate and Ellwanger with the better ground ball rate. Ellwanger can sling it no doubt about that at 96\97 and looks like a fast mover as long as he keeps the walks under control. I have come away very impressed with Moring. He doesn't throw that hard, at least not yet, but he gets good movement on his pitches and works all over the zone. It is just a few games in and dominating A ball doesn't mean much for these college starters, but he looks like an arm that could be a difference maker. Nice to see Beltre making more contact to start the year. Very small sample, but if he takes off that would really help as the Twins don't have much for high end outfielders in the lower levels.
  24. Dman
    I'm happy with any of Lackey, Emerson or Flora. Lackey would be my first pick as having an arm that could control the running game as well as hit would be a really valuable asset that is incredibly hard to find. He is also athletic enough to play other positions as well. Emerson with nice contact skills and a big body might take a little more time, but looks like a unique talent as well. Feels like the Twins have a fair number of arms in the pipeline but if Flora is a top of the rotation arm sure wouldn't hurt to take the best pitcher in this draft at three. Feels like there should be an elite prospect at three no matter what.
  25. Dman
    Dominant game from Gallagher giving up only one hit. A little lucky as there were some deep fly balls and one really hard hit ball right at someone. Still his bendy stuff and ability to go high and low in the zone make him tough to hit when he is hitting his spots. Langenberg with 6 K's in a little over two innings. He came out really strong, but the stuff wasn't as crisp the more pitches he threw. Might need more time to build up but he looks like a classic relief arm to me. We'll see how things go. Nice to see him getting those K's though. Nice to see Gabby showing some power and helping the Saints grab a much needed win. Hoping more of those AAA bats warm up.
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