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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah I agree pretty much 100%. I guess if it was a monster return for Duran or Jax I could see moving one of them but it would need to be for a position of need like catcher and AAA close to starting arm or something. If they just sell the players that essentially are already gone I don't think this team is too far away. Next year if they get Correa going along with Buxton that will help. I have to believe Wallner can be better and Larnach seems close to being something. Keaschall might be something. Would be nice to find out if McCusker can be the big right handed bat they need. Next year Culpepper and Jenkins could be options to help the team at some point. Rodriguez and Gonzalez might be ready as well. Jullien should probably get a second look. If Raya keeps things going he might be an option next year on the pitching side and he might be a better arm than Festa, Matthews or SWR. So again I agree with you. If they just keep things together. I think they have the potential to be a very good team next year. Tearing it down too far would be a mistake IMO. Getting some of these younger guys playing time might be just what they need to have a faster start next year.
  2. Dman
    You might be right, but it seems that there is a lot more evidence that poor starters can become good relievers. Than poor starters that become good starters especially at age 29. I would just say the odds are better for him in the pen given his body of work as a starter. He also just might not be good enough for this level, but I would put him in the pen and find out.
  3. Dman
    Yeah I agree. They won't do anything until after the deadline though. I do think he could be a decent reliever maybe even elite in time. I just don't think starting is his thing. At least a thing he can excel at.
  4. Dman
    I am a prospect sicko but I haven't watched any DSL video yet. However, I have been keeping an eye on Castellanos and his box scores. It looks like pretty elite stuff. I hope they bring him over next year as he seems ready. I am loving that Jenkins is looking so good at AA. He's been injured so much he really needs the at bats just to get a feel for all the stuff these guys throw. He is young for the level but that doesn't seem to be impacting him. McCusker with another home run and Eeles with another hit. Some things never change. Nice win for St. Paul.
  5. Dman
    I think this whole process is a decision tree and depends on what your "goals" are. Is your goal just to make the playoffs? Is it to make your team competitive enough to go far into the postseason? Will the trades you make selling at the deadline make enough of a difference for the future of the team or not move the needle? I think you have to figure that out to understand how this FO wants to operate. Given what they have done in the past and what many posters on here remind me going back to the 87 Twins just get into the playoffs and anything can happen once you are in. While that's a fine theory with some proof behind it there is a lot of evidence that shows you need to have a really solid team and a little luck to do well in the playoffs. The Twins made it to the playoffs quite a bit in the 2000's, but had the longest playoff losing record in the sport and I think sports history. Just getting there hasn't been enough for quite a while. Sure there is always the hope that everything clicks for your team and nothing does for the other team. You can say they were a pitch away, a hit away an inning away from changing things, but you have to have a deep lineup, playoff caliber starters and these days at least three elite pen arms. to do some damage. It takes a solid all around team to win in the playoffs. Given how they operate it seems to me that Tampa, Oakland and Cleveland appear to be looking at more than just making the playoffs. They are trying to construct their teams to win in the playoffs. They also are trying to do it on a shoe string budget. To do it I think you have to create a large core group\wave of players that would come up together around the same time. They aren't all going to work out and you might have redundant players and holes to fill. With small budgets you have to trade for what you need when you decide you need it. To make it all work you have to take big risks on prospect talent and then big trades to fill holes. And that is where things get tough for me as the Twins don't seem to be particularly adept at trading. They have some wins like Joe Ryan, but honestly a fair number of losers. It kind of feels like this FO is once bitten twice shy after going big with the Lopez and Mahle deals. I just don't think they are saavy enough to pull deals like that off. Also I do think this FO is just fine making the playoffs and that is success for them and for a lot of us. With that goal in mind I don't see them selling at the deadline.
  6. Dman
    Yeah the Athletic mentions the same thing. The Twins FO only seems interested in a young MLB controllable bat and that sure seems to point to Rushing to me. It is one area they lack depth and he is controllable for quite a while. Honestly I think Clase from the Guardians has a better chance of being traded as they don't always seem to demand as much in trade. Pittsburgh has some interesting relievers as well. Minnesota seems so hard to deal with as you generally have to really overpay. It does feel a year too early to be trading Jax or Duran, but if they fix a weakness on the team I would do it. Even if they lost Duran they could move guys over and fill with even say Festa. Once Pablo and Ober are back two guys will need to go down. Likely Matthews and Festa and they have been pitching Festa with an opener so he knows how to come in cold to some degree. It would be another high octane arm for the pen short term. They could still be good for the wild card even with that trade and if it did bring back Rushing that would help now and into the future as well. They can do it, but it does depend on the return.
  7. Dman
    Because he only has half a year left on his contract and the way he has pitched the last few years he is going to cost more money that the Twins would likely spend for a reliever. So they won't extend him. If he were to fetch a decent prospect it could help build the team for the future. If that prospect works out they would have 6 years of control of that prospect for giving up half a year of Coulumbe. Or they use the prospect acquired to get something else they need down the line. Or if they don't trade him they get nothing. except a maybe they make the wild card, maybe they don't chance and that's it. The question is do you push the chips in on this team or cash out and try again another day\year. The FO will have to decide.
  8. Dman
    The numbers are good on Brock and pretty much have been for a while. I think he has that kind of caliber of arm, but as mentioned by others his age and injury history, especially generally not lasting a full season, would have to give teams pause as a playoff solution. Also where are the Twins going to find essentially a closer type arm for around 1M dollars. His value to the team is far greater than what he could return in trade unless someone really ponies up.
  9. Dman
    Yeah I think that Philly deal sounds about right. All three are top 100 prospects, but all three have question marks. Crawford is a center fielder that might not have much power. Tait is an 18 year old catcher that is far from elite defensively and Abel is a starter who has control problems and failed to stick in the Phillies rotation. Still that is a heck of haul and sounds about right for Duran. I'd think Crawford would be the key to a deal. He's a plus runner has been hitting at a high level at a young age with a good OBP. He would be great Buxton insurance and could play the Bader role in left for sure and possibly right as he has a plus arm just not a canon. Tait would give the Twins their first top 100 catcher since Mauer although at 18 he has a long way to go. Abel gives you an arm for an arm. Granted not equal value but a possible future starter. That would be mighty hard to turn down IMO.
  10. Dman
    I am torn as usual. Duran is a bit of a unicorn pitcher as stated in the article he has velocity and he has movement. He has that big body with a rare\special arm. He is not easily replaceable IMO. Still if the Twins don't plan on keeping him long term or really past one more season I'd be listening. The Twins just don't like to allocate much money to the pen. Duran is set for a big raise this coming year and then the year after an even bigger one. A reliever only controls one inning of the game. Granted if it is the closer in a one run game a very important one inning. If you are going to trade a player in an area you have some excess not much, but arguably some. I'd say trading even an elite reliever depending on the haul makes sense. Here is the difficult part for me. hypothetically if the Twins just kept Duran despite his price tag until the end they would get two and half years of an elite arm and likely a top 30 draft pick as compensation when he leaves. So the asking price is pretty astronomical here. I'd want to be compensated for that future draft pick plus the essentially three years of control for Duran as the team that acquires him would use him in the playoffs for three years. I'd be looking for multiple top 100 picks and maybe some lotto's thrown in. I would need three solid players prospects to get a deal like that done and who is going to pay that? I guess that is my question. Granted who ever gets him, gets one of the elite arms in baseball for three years. The prospects may or may not pan out. That is the hard part. Still it would be a steep price at this stage for me to trade Duran, but yeah if someone did pony up I'd be very tempted to do that deal. Especially if you don't plan on hanging onto him to the end.
  11. Dman
    Yeah I keep reading. Going back to scouting reports and they all say great defense and good hit tool. Just power not likely there. I doubted Miller's defense when they drafted him and I doubted their ability to get Culpepper to not chase. We'll know more once we see him play. I'm guessing I'll feel better once I see him. He was ranked pretty much right at 15 most of the draft cycle falling some the last week. I looked back at the board and the only other player I could think of that I might have liked better was Cunningham, but what were we gonna do with likely yet another 2nd baseman? I don't think they would have taken Irish with the character concerns. Houston can legit play up the middle most of the next 8 to 10 picks couldn't and there was no center fielder in that range either. The Twins scouts have watched him a ton and what little was written seemed to suggest they love the player and were very happy with the pick. I doubted them last time and they were right, but still if the hit tool is light it does take some of the shine off of this pick. If he works out like the Twins think he can then can you even imagine having two legit shortstops on the team with good hit tools? That might blow my mind.
  12. Dman
    I did go back and look at the numbers and he has been better longer than I had remembered. Since about June 11th he has pretty much pitched 5 or 6 innings with a solid K rate and WHIP. The one stinker messing those numbers up was June 17th. Consistency has been the problem, but he might be working his way there. Still I would want to see another 3 to 4 games at these current levels to be sure he is ready and man I hope he is. If you have watched him his stuff has great movement IMO and he is only 22. He might have better stuff than Festa, Matthews and SWR so if he can harness it he could be a special arm.
  13. Dman
    It feels like the twilight zone with this club. It looked like they might be out of it to start the month and now it looks like they might be back in it. Still this feels like a .500 club with little hope of unseating the true contenders. They don't really have money to buy as they are already talking about trading guys that might be getting arb raises next year. We can't sell because we are in the hunt for the wild card. so no chance to add prospects to get better or have more tradable assets for next season. We are doomed to mediocrity. Silver lining is that we are generally in the race so can always remain interested in the team I guess.
  14. Dman
    For a minute there in the 5th round I thought they were going to take Dickerson. I liked the Barr pick better, but they had a chance to grab him in the 4th or 5th round. Still they got some interesting bats after that, but I did think they were going to take him there in the 5th since he had fallen. Would have been a cool story but I like what they did better.
  15. Dman
    Barr was such a well known name heading into the second day and yet he lasted to the 5th round. Are there more questions there than we think, or teams just felt the guys they grabbed were better value. Have to believe the Brewers might be mad that the Twins grabbed him before they did. I was surprised they took a High school kid in the 6th round. I assume they won't need much extra money to sign him because I don't see a lot of senior signs to take less money. Nice bat and frame. It would seem he could add more power. Will have to wait and see. Any news on Ryan Daniels? The Twins took him with their 11th rounder and that usually is a spot where they take a chance on someone who might not sign that they think belonged in the top 200 players or so. Reading an article it sounded like he was contacted by 29 of the 30 teams, but hadn't made up his mind if he would come back or go pro. Thanks for the info on Merit Jones. I have to say I was confused by that pick given it looked like his stuff backed up on him. I am sure they have a plan for him. Not sure if I just didn't get as much info on players before, but picks 14 through 20 just didn't seem as full of potential as other years. Not that it matters that much as they rarely get very far, but it looked like they went more for a lot of guys with poor fastballs\poor results and good secondaries. While I get that the Twins have been good at adding velocity I am not as convinced they have been able to get flat fastballs to change shape and it looks like that is what is needed for several of these guys. I am looking at Tanner Hall as an example from the 2023 draft. He had an elite changeup but is still getting hit hard at High A. Jeremy Lee would be another one. I get that not everyone works out, but when you get one you get a Festa, Matthews type arm. This draft it seemed a bit less promising to me for some reason. Overall this was a very balanced draft. through the top 11 picks they grabbed 6 position players and 5 pitchers. After the top 300 players it generally doesn't matter much, but they got some arms to work with. Personally I would have gotten more arms at picks 6 and 7 but I do like the profiles of the hitters they did take. Most all have good contact rates. Hoping all these guys make it. Go Twins.
  16. Dman
    This is my greatest fear with Houston. Even in his profile it said he hit the ball on the ground at a 50% clip and just like DeBarge in his draft year he hit more home runs, but wasn't expected to keep that up in pro ball. Still most analysts had him firmly in the top 15 to 20 picks and the Twins scouts seemed sure he is the "right" guy. They were right about Culpepper when most of us felt unsure about that pick. Won't really know until midway through the year next year, but I hope Houston looks more like Culpepper than DeBArge in the end.
  17. Dman
    Yeah it would have been cool to see him up there if he was ready. I like his pitches better than Adams and he is still only 22 years old. If he can repeat what he did his last start and show some consistency that would be huge for this organization.
  18. Dman
    While I think it's great those guys are doing well those are all small sample sizes. Ferrer just started hitting the last two weeks. His OPS in the month of June was .565. That's not his slugging that was his OPS for all of June. July is different story it is a 1.059 OPS which is impressive but is this just a hot streak or who he is for real? His OPS for the year is still .646. I don't see him moving up anytime soon. Same with Raya. He has been horrible most of the year and even with getting on track his ERA is 5.97. Granted his FIP and xFIP are a full run lower so he has been a bit unlucky, but that's not the only thing holding him back his WHIP is 1.64. Can't walk and give up that many hits at the MLB level. Again maybe if he keeps this up he could be an option late in the year, but he needs to prove it longer than a few starts. DeBarge can steal bases, but he has plenty to work on at the High A level as his OPS for the year is only .759. That doesn't scream promotion to me. His batting average is only .249. He hits the ball on the ground way too much and doesn't have much power. He should work on that in A ball before joining the big boys. I wouldn't rush him just because he can steal bases. He has been hitting worse as the season wears on with .678 OPS in June and a .600 OPS in July. I don't see a promotion in his near future unless he turns things around soon. All three are good players and yeah they all will likely get promoted eventually. I just don't see a few good games meaning all that much compared to their larger body of production this year.
  19. Dman
    As always we pretty much think alike. I would add I think I see Keaschal lite in Agbayani. I think the Twins see him with a plus hit tool and at least average power. With the weaker arm I see second base and left field just like Keaschal. He has a long way to go to get to that type of level, but that is the way I see that pick. McCombs as Summerhill-lite was an awesome description of what he can be. It's a nice solid profile. Good pick there IMO. I agree with you on the smaller schools not translating tools well. It hasn't worked out all that often looking at you Ben Ross granted he was DII or III I believe. Still Sprock looks like an Eeles type prospect swapping out speed for a super strong arm that would play well at 3rd. It's an interesting pick. We'll see how that hit tool translates at the pro level. I like the Mitrovich pick, because I like great changeups. However, having one does not guarantee success looking at you Tanner Hall. I say put him in the lab and see what you can do to get that fastball to play. Yeah Robinson gives me mixed feeling as well. Twitchy athletic type that usually doesn't work out. Still at pick 10 seems like about what you can expect at pick 299.
  20. Dman
    I agree, but just to be a tad bit more positive I would say Fang is interesting because he has secondaries and Jones is interesting simply because they have drafted him twice and he isn't even in BA's or FSS's top 600 players. Not that they see everyone, but it seems odd and compelling at the same time. You look back though and most of their drafts stall out around pick 13 and picks 19 and 20 they usually waste on guys who likely won't sign. Once you are outside the top 350 or so the pickings are slim, but yes in years past it seemed you could at least get excited about the potential of a few of these guys. They are lotto tickets inn that 14 to 18 range usually with one plus pitch and a chance to develop more, but the odds are super long. So long story long I guess I am not too surprised that there wasn't much there after pick 13. While I am surprised the Twins didn't take a catcher most of those with any promise what so ever were taken early and honestly I preferred the picks they made on Ellwanger, Reitz and Barr to grabbing a catcher and that is likely where they would have needed to get one if they even wanted one. Surprise number two was the High school pick of Agbayani at pick 6. Not sure how much extra they need to pay him? Maybe he is fine with half a mil? Interesting spot for them to go high school though. While they did a good job of grabbing arms earlier this year I still wouldn't have minded picks 6 and 7 on arms as well. A pretty balanced draft with 6 of the first eleven picks on bats and 5 on arms. Pretty Twinsy draft. I am hoping for a high success rate for this class.
  21. Dman
    Yeah has to be the frame and something they feel they can fix in the delivery. The numbers just aren't there.
  22. Dman
    Alright then let the signing's begin and let's see who we really got.
  23. Dman
    I assume this is the same Merit Jones they tried to to sign in 2024 and should sign in 2025? Not sure what the attraction is here as the WHiP has always been way too high and his K rate was worse this year than last. Must see something they can fix?
  24. Dman
    Yeah FSS says the following "Fang is the rare Ivy Leaguer making a push to get drafted awfully high in 2025. He a physically matured 6-foot-3-inch righty with a quick arm. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. The stuff might not overwhelm, but the execution can." This is the Twins typical arm that can throw strikes and work on upping the fastball to make the secondaries better. Doesn't always work, but when it does good things happen. I agree probably a pen arm. Fastball can likely play in shorter stints and he has quality secondaries to work with. Risky profile but we are in the 13th round now.
  25. Dman
    Last two picks look like they need fastball help. Hopefully the Twins can fix that and get those K rates up.
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