Dman

I'd think given the state of things right now trading Ryan or others would be a really bad PR move given the things Tom has said to this point. Give the guy credit as he said he wasn't going to be afraid to make tough decisions and he did just that with Falvey. While I still think ownership is the larger problem I am not sure Falvey has done enough to keep his job. I like Falvey, but what star players have we drafted under his watch? The team hasn't gotten much of anything out of their international signings. They made some decent trades acquiring Sonny Gray, Pablo and Ryan, but they made just as many blunders. His biggest moves kind of ended up to be his biggest failures with Donaldson and Correa. They did fairly well on moves around the edges, finding bargain guys that had a good year or two, but that doesn't get you where you need to go. After finally winning a playoff game and then needing to reduce payroll right away did him no favors the last few years and with what little TV revenue they had cut down that hurt too. While not completely his fault top prospects who didn't transition well were many from Kirilloff, to Lewis injuries and ineffective play doomed this teams ability to remain competitive with effective younger, cheaper players With that track record in mind it seems like moving on is needed and a fresh perspective required. Maybe it's all just a bunch of bad luck, but results matter and they just weren't there IMO. In the end I think Tom Pohlad made the right decision. The fans need some level of hope and to be less focused on the failures of the past with a fresh start at the top. I doubt much will change, but at least there is some sense of hope for the moment.

Definitely bad timing but I think it was time for Derek to go. There is just no energy or optimism about this club right now. I don't know that the new guy(s) will be any better, but at least this erases a lot of narrative's about the Falvey era. The new guys are going to get the benefit of the doubt on their decisions while there is too much baggage to slough off with Falvey. While there has been plenty of disappointment with this club Falvey did modernize a lot of things in the Minors and Major's., They hired good people that got poached by other teams. I feel like pitching development has been more of a strength than it ever was in the past. He was terrific at saying nothing to the press using lots of words with no substance. Still if the Twins are headed toward another rebuild and it looks like they are, as a front office you usually only get one of those. He had his so it is time for some new blood to lead the next wave.

I think those are good points. The only quibble I would have is Festa. I don't know how the Twins feel about him, but it seemed to be a pretty epic struggle to get him through 5 innings and then with the shoulder issue I'd think a move to the pen could be in the works from the start as he has the velocity to be a late inning arm. Still your point stands. They need rotation depth and Matthews, Bradley, Abel are still on the starter track. I don't think they want to start the season with any of those arms in the pen. Prielipp, Morris, Raya, Klein are all fairly new to AAA and or haven't performed all that well there. Pretty sure they start the season in AAA until they force their way up. So adding one more right handed reliever via free agency with your group of five makes 6 arms. Adding Festa would make 7 and that still leaves Adams in the mix. As mentioned above they might find some camp invite that steps up but would have to find 40 man room for that and they would have to be significantly better than Adams otherwise why not just stick with Adams, I agree with you that there is a strong chance he makes the opening day roster as things stand right now.

Yeah I think you are right. The Twins seem to be looking for more power arms. Guys that can throw 96 or better out of the pen. Ohl can't do that. Adams is close. The guy they received in trade should be able to throw hard as well. The Twins most effective relievers were guys that threw hard. Duran, Jax, Varland. They have arms beyond Ohl and Adams that can do that. Still I think Ohl's changeup is enough to make things work. With more refinement he could become something and it appears others teams agreed since Colorado was first in line and still made a trade. Ohl's end of the year performance really intrigued me and I thought they might want to give him more time to see how things played out, but given the glut of young arms they have I guess they felt they had as good or better options behind him and they needed 40 man room.

I was surprised they put Ohl on the waiver wire as I had Adams as the first guy off on the pitching side. Ohl really pitched well out of the pen at the end last year. His change was a plus pitch. I kind of thought he would at least be in the mix this year but am guessing with the fastball not being particularly fast and the fact the Twins have a lot of young arms that throw harder they felt they had better options. He could be a really good pickup for Colorado if they figure out how to replace his fastball with something else. If he can make contact I can see Julien doing really well at Coors field. He seemed to be turning things around but he wasn't a fit for this roster anymore and with no options left they needed to move him off the 40 man. We'll see how it goes, but this could be a good trade for both teams. Nice to have that extra 40 man spot as they can focus on one more arm for the pen. Things are shaping up a bit more.

The only thing I can think of is that the Twins didn't hold out much hope they would win the battle for Caratini and everything else after him isn't that great. Thus the Jackson move. Now they have to figure out what to do next or carry three catchers which makes no sense.

After the Pereda news I was wondering the same thing. Either they are trying to get something back in return for Jackson or pry something loose for Jeffers. They can't keep all three. We'll see what happens.

As others have said not a huge deal as Pereda has gone through this before. I think mainly because of his defense. Still he hit fairly with the Twins and it was nice to have a bat from the left side. He had an option left and seemed like a really nice third catcher option. This move does confuse me though. Why risk losing Pereda when they almost certainly have to run Jackson through waivers? Do they feel Jackson has trade value? Are they lying about Jeffers and looking to trade him? They had to trade for Jackson so they must know for sure he won't pass through waivers. Still not sure I understand the move as they can't keep three catchers. I agree with @jorgenswestthat Cardenas is a viable option if needed. He had OK numbers at AAA. It looked like he might be working on tapping into more power which has been his main weakness. He likely is a better defender than Pereda so maybe they felt they didn't need Pereda that much anyway. Hard to say. I just thought they would let go of Jackson first

The other thing not mentioned in this article is that Larnach is about the only player in that role that if traded they can recover 4.5M. If the Twins are keeping payroll low then that becomes important as well. I think Larnach is solid against right handed pitching and could improve on those numbers, but as others have said how many of essentially the same type of player or slightly better can the Twins keep on the 26 man? It isn't that he's a bad bat. It's that his age, lack of defensive value, cost and redundancy make him look like the odd man out.

Yeah I agree. It's a long shot, but they might be able to compete with this roster. I think selling all the way would have killed any interest in the team for this coming year. If they are bad at the deadline they can complete the tear down then and at least say they tried. Sometimes some hope is better than no hope. This should be an interesting season. With all the flaws and holes they still could tank pretty badly. Getting off to a solid start is going to be more important than ever this year.

As others have stated for 2M what's not to like. Will be interesting to see what 40 man moves get made to make this work.

It is Culpepper for me as well. Given what he did last year he seems like a solid player all around with a chance to be a great hitter. Could be plus defense and offense as a super important position. It is impressive to be 18 and at High A with a solid batting line. That being said there is a fair bit of chase in his game and he needs more defensive refinement, but as things stand today he certainly has a claim to number 2. We'll know more after this year as he'll either improve or stall out there with his current approach. Emma has good power and great patience but his in zone swing and miss makes me very nervous. He has been hurt a lot and we haven't seen many full seasons from him. He also doesn't seem to have a super high ceiling as defender in center. He is more established than the other two as a hitter, but he could have a really hard time moving to MLB with his current approach. Instead of Prielipp who is older I would have Hill as a potential number 2. He had elite K rates and made it to high A as 19 year old. He also is a lefty which is valuable and his stuff looks like it could be elite. Hard to say this early, but with being so dominant so young he could be number 2 if you squint.

His bat was really good at High A last year and he showed power, but he was old for that level. Given his inability to throw out runners catcher doesn't seem likely, but if the bat does catch fire 1st base or DH could work, Still he has never made top 30 Twins list and is quite a longshot IMO.

Yeah can't "plan" on him looking good enough for MLB this year, but given the moves made it sure seems like they are creating ways to give him chances if he looks ready. They can move Kreidler or Gray up and down while giving Culpepper chances at the MLB level if injuries or ineffective play occur. A lot of things have to go right for Culpepper to make it, but given how things turned out for Keaschal it certainly could happen for Culpepper.

Thanks!!! I missed that. Still had him in my spreadsheet. So many players move in the offseason. They really don't have much for short or third then in the high minors.

This move appears to be a way to be able to fill in at short or third if an injury occurs. They don't have much beyond Culpepper at AAA unless they want to go with Will Holland and I don't think he plays short all that well. Since Gray has an option left it allows them to move him up and down. It likely is also protection for removing Brujan since he has no options left he won't be easy to move up and down. They are short on 40 man space so will need to make another move. I'd guess that would be removing Brujan or some type of trade. They should have just kept Fitzgerald on the 40 man. They should only need a stopgap until Culpepper is ready.

It feels like that Javiaer signing cured them from going all in on just one guy so to speak. There have been some notable top tier signings that have worked out quite well for other teams, but it seems like we see just as many or more of the medium to low end guys work out as well. It doesn't seem to cost much to go after arms and I don't know the success rate for arms, but it seems like for 100K or less you could grab a bunch of those guys and see how they work out. Colorado went after some of the higher end arms in this class as did a few others. I wouldn't mind the Twins allocating more money there, but then maybe they just haven't identified them soon enough to get them to sign with them. Last year 4 of their signings were in the top 50 for MLB.com. All in the 1.5 to 1M type of players. That seems to be the range where the Brewers like to target their guys and they have had decent success. One thing I can't argue with you about is their relative lack of success on the international signings for quite some time. Maybe Bohorquez can break that streak and become something or Oliveros? I like DeAndrade but there's quite a ways to go there. Maybe Beltre and his big forearms can find more in zone contact? Olivar is a good hitter, but is he good enough and he has no good defensive home. So to your point whatever they are doing hasn't been working well. Hopefully the 2025 and 2026 classes can right the ship as it sure hurts to waste that pool of talent every year. They have thrown enough darts that they should hit some something soon, right?

Thats what I have as well. Top 12 players where we see salary numbers is about 5.8M add in Ozuna and that puts it at 6.3M with 8 more players to sign. I'd say they are spending it all. Can't imagine there would be much left after they sign the rest.

I don't see Angel Ozuna on the list. The Twins were rumored to be the team signing him. That would be likely another $500,000 to the total if true. I like that they signed more arms. Position players haven't worked out that well recently and it seems like they might have better luck at least turning some of these arms in bullpen guys., At any rate nice to see a more balanced class in that regard. Merlot seems to have nice potential. I will be watching his stat lines this year. So hard to know how these young men will develop and we know 90% of them won't make it. Still fun to dream on their tools and hope to find a star player in there somewhere. It will be a long 6 year wait though.

I can't think of an offseason where I have questioned this many moves. Not saying what I think matters, but usually the moves while often underwhelming do feel logical. I do think getting Caratini is a really good move and protects them if they decide to trade Jeffers now or in the future. It also helps them next year while they wait for their young catchers to develop. They can't afford to keep 3 catchers on the 26 man so something has to give there. Pereda they can move up and down because he has options so it seems unlikely they chance him getting through waivers and still in the end they need to move on from one of those guys. Kind of the same deal with a left handed hitting outfielder. They have too many. Someone needs to go. On top of all that they need some relievers with MLB experience. At minimum one and likely two. I don't know what the budget is, but it seems like 110M is the upper limit of where they want to be. I'm sure they could over that a little, but likely not much. That seems to mean that one of Larnach or Jeffers needs to go to make room for some relievers. There's a lot of time left for these moves to make some sense. I presume the Twins thought they would be outbid for Caratini thus the Jackson move. They could just dump Jackson as the cost was a player they didn't even draft from the independent league who was going to be a tough to fit on the team anyway. I like the signing now let's see what else they do to fix the roster.

Just given the lean build and long arms I thought Hill was going to be a long term project. Was very surprised at how he did his first pro season. I don't think I have ever seen a high school arm perform like that for the Twins in their first year. Outstanding K rate and if the changeup is a weapon already that bodes well for his future. It's nice to see the Twins going after these young arms. They have Hill, Soto and Barr as 20 year old arms. If Hill and Soto can make it to AA at just 20 years old that would be huge. Bohorquez (aka the Bazooka) is only 21 and at High A and Carpenter while not as Dominant is an interesting Lefty and only 21. They need to stay healthy and add innings, but they could line up to be difference makers by 2027. Add in the 2025 drafted arms taken in the top 5 rounds with Quick, Ellwanger, Rietz, and Barr along with typical late round arms the Twins always grab and it looks like there could be another large wave of arms ready to tap into by 2027 or 2028. Still, Hill with the good fastball changeup feels like the arm with the most potential as things stand today.

That's kind of my thinking as well. I mean they have to find a way to get at least one veteran reliever if not two right? Maybe they will be willing to spend more than we think? Still it seems like trading Jeffers solves a lot of issues (money and player wise). Not that losing Jackson would be the end of the world, but it would be odd asset management. They also could hold onto to Jeffers and see how this team looks at the deadline and if bad which is most likely, trade him then. Still given the reliance on the young roster and now that they have Caratini it sure seems like they could trade Jeffers whenever they want. I'll be surprised if he makes it out of spring training with the team.

Could be wrong but it feels like a Jeffers trade is next up. He is a good offensive catcher and it seems like teams have been enquiring about him. They just said they were making Jeffers the primary catcher so seems odd to get Caratini after all the things they've said and done. Certainly they could still hang onto Jeffers, but if they want any real value from him they need to trade him sooner rather than later. We'll find out soon enough.

I'm a little surprised Mendez isn't on there or does he not count since on the 40 man? Given he seems to have no positive defensive value 1st base seems like a good spot for him. Strictly 1st base guys seems in short supply given those names, but lot's of players get moved to the position as needed IMO. While The Twins have a few high end bats at AAA they could use more top level high end hitters in the system from AA on down IMO. I presume that will be the focus of this years draft.

I think those are all good points though I think they can get about as much at the deadline as they can right now. If Ryan can stay healthy and with arms that is no sure thing. IMO their decision to hold onto these guys plays into Ticket sales. While given the current construction of this team there seems little hope they do well this year. At least there is hope and or reason to come and see games. Lose Ryan, Pablo and Maybe Buxton and I don't know if you can keep enough interest in this team as a bottom feeder. Also ownership has a huge perception problem and giving up before the season starts is just gonna hammer the narrative of cheap owners who don't care about the fans into stone. They have to at least give the perception they are trying to go for it this year. Granted the lackluster acquisitions are already hurting that perception. If it were me I would try and trade Ryan before the start of the season. His value will never be higher with two full years of control and at a low cost coming off an All Star caliber year. You don't have to risk poor performance or injury waiting for the deadline. It hurts this years team, but if they get the right pieces back it could move them forward in future years. I'd keep Pablo. He is coming off a season of being inured and it would be selling low. I'd risk keeping him to the deadline. Same for Buxton. I'd wait until the deadline. That may be purely sentimental on my part as I just can't see this team not having their one true star player. If he'll stay I'd keep him as long as he is willing to stay. There's a lot of offseason left, but things still do look a bit grim to me. This is a very hope based team that is lacking statistical proof that it will be a winner. So many things have to go right it feels like it would take a miracle, but baseball is weird so who knows.