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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah I am not convinced there isn't a problem yet. Velocity has been down, pulls himself from the game due to soreness. I am happy the imaging came back clean, but things still look dicey to me.
  2. Dman
    It makes some sense in theory and trying something new isn't necessarily a bad thing, but I'm not sure if it makes that much of a difference or not. You look at the Twins system this year and there were a ton of arms that started the season late Rojas, Quick, Mitrovcich and supposedly Horn, Reitz and Soto although they might as well join the 60 day IL arms in Barr, Fang, Kaminska, Carpenter. Not to mention guys with stretches on the IL already in Garcia, Moring, Bohorquez. It seems like arms are just naturally struggling with the max effort required to pitch these days whether it be 60 pitches or 90 to 100. I get that fewer pitches per outing should be easier to recover from, but how much does that matter. Once the arm is "warmed up" is it less prone to injury than just starting the warming up process? I mean guys who throw just one or two innings out of the pen get hurt all the time as well. I don't know what the answer is and since it is the minors am willing to see how they do compared to other teams, but to my knowledge there isn't a lot of proof that shaving of 20 to 30 pitches per outing will change much.
  3. Dman
    I think you could make a case for Rojas in the top 4. I think the walk rate is high, but so is Ellwanger's. He's at a much tougher level and is very young for the level. He could be in there, but this seemed more focused on the first year pro's. They won't move Quick or Peschl to the majors because they would need to be added to the 40 man and their options clock would start and if they can't handle that level you would be wasting 40 man spots waiting for them to be ready. I mean there's a chance Quick could make it, but honestly there is no reason to hurry these guys as they face a significant challenge at AA and then AAA before the ultimate challenge at the MLB level. Just no reason to force a sink or swim approach with young arms. They both could be moved to AA and there are pitchers from last years draft that skipped A and High A and started in AA. They could promote faster if they want to, but given the Twins are not a likely playoff team they can afford to be patient. I think if you get to AA your first year that's a very good pace. If you perform well at AA like Gallagher you can move to AAA pretty fast and then get called up if you look good there.
  4. Dman
    I think the pen is the best place for him. He gives up too many homeruns somewhat like Varland did when he came up. Not saying he can't start at AAA but I think his ultimate role is pen in short relief. If good enough he could be a stopper bullpen arm used in the toughest situations.
  5. Dman
    I was really impressed with what Moring did to start the season. He looked better in that first game than Ellwanger IMO, but things evened out from there. Do we know why Moring was out those two weeks? Shoulder, elbow, knee? The movement he was getting seemed to stifle hitters though as time went on they made more contact. Looks promising but time will tell. I had my eye on Peschl after last year. I like his stuff and thought they might keep him as a starter. Was surprised by the pen move, but he has dared batters to hit his stuff and it hasn't happened much yet. Nice to see some of the lower picks establishing themselves.
  6. Dman
    I tend to agree with most of this. I have my concerns about Jenkins ability to stay healthy. While the wall might be a freak thing the hamstrings and ankles seem to be fairly chronic. I hope Diaw can stay at catcher. I don't see much home run power there or exceptional speed to make up for a lack of power and he gets injured a fair bit as well. I still believe in his bat, but his defense needs work. Olivar is underrated because he likely is a 1st base DH bat IMO. I know they play him in the outfield there, but who are they kidding? He's a guy that needs to be more stationary to not be a liability in the field. Olivar just seems like an .800 OPS bat no matter what level he is at. His bat has always been his carrying tool. If there were room I'd like to see them move him up to AAA. He and Sabato are similar players although Olivar is two years younger with a better K rate. I'd like to see who wins that first base spot between him and Mendez. Need them both at AAA to see how close to ready they might be. I know very little about Briceno other than his nice stat line. I am guessing they will let him cook a little longer at high A but that is very encouraging for a 22 year old. Ferrier has been dynamite to start the year. If had played better last year he would already be at AA I think they should move him there sooner rather than later given the results so far.
  7. Dman
    I think the Wallner comparison is Apt. Though he might have even worse in zone contact. As @jmlease1put it so kindly they are doing everything they can to help him improve. Hopefully he finds a better way to handle those breaking balls without striking out.
  8. Dman
    FYI Houstons and Pena's OPS don't match the other numbers listed. I don't think either player has been at the .900 OPS level since the first few weeks of the season. So I assume their OPS's are closer to .800 or .850 not .900.
  9. Dman
    Ferrer looks legit with the bat to me. I kind of kept waiting for him to go cold as he was miserable at the plate last year., but he has consistently been one of the top bats for the Kernal's. It's a pretty balanced line for Ferrer which leads me to believe he can keep his solid production going. Walking 15%, K's 22% his BABIP is a bit high at .350, but he has a .300 batting average to go along with a healthy slugging percentage. I don't know much about his defense in the outfield, but if he can hit for average and power I think they'll find a place. Might be tick early to move him up, but with Mercede's needing to move up maybe they can make that switch sooner than later. After giving up on Ross I am back on the Ross train. At AA he had more walks than K's an insane .737 slugging and a 235 WRC+ I don't think I have seen a WRC+ at 200 before. Granted his BABIP was at .450 so he wasn't going to keep that insane production up, but if he kept the slugging close to .700 he was still going to be in good shape when the hits didn't fall. He hasn't been as good at AAA but I don't think he has been playing as much and facing some of those tough breakers in AAA can take time to adjust. We'll see where it goes, but the future looks bight right now. I really like what McCombs has done so far this year. I think he has great contact skills, but with a 1.6% walk rate and near 28% K rate it feels like there is trouble ahead. Lot's of straight up contact hitters without a balanced approach tend get stuck at some point. We'll see how it goes, but he is off to a nice start.
  10. Dman
    Heck of a performance by Morris. If these young arms can prove they belong at the MLB level the Twins could have the pitching they need under control for quite some time.
  11. Dman
    Thanks for putting this together!! I always like to get an early look at what might down the pipeline. Appreciate the writeups. Hoping some of those young arms look good this first year in the States.
  12. Dman
    I was surprised they called Klein up given his penchant for giving up home runs, but a great debut for him with a scoring line of 0 0 0 0 0 0. What does it take to believe you will make the majors after going undrafted? I think the odds are less than 1% to make it if you go undrafted. Has to be an amazing day for that young man to pitch for the team you grew up cheering for and in the stadium you watched your favorite Twins players play. He looks a lot like Varland. Can the Twins catch lightening in a bottle like that again?
  13. Dman
    I might be the only one, but I think Paredes has a future in the Twins bullpen. He is good enough that they keep walking him out there as a mini starter and he gets blown up sometimes. If they would just keep in the pen I think his numbers could be elite. Like I said he gets blown up on occasion, personally that happens more from over use, but more often than not he gets the job done. I hope he proves it in AAA and gets his chance. I think he has earned it. Crazy to see the Muscles score 24 runs. This was a team early in the season I was afraid might get no hit multiple times. Looks like the hitters are finding their stride. Lot's of nice young bats under 20 down on the Fort. I hope some of them turn into top 10 prospects.
  14. Dman
    There is little reason for Jeffers to take an extension unless a perceived massive overpay. He likely gets only one shot at a big payday and I think the market will treat him very well.
  15. Dman
    Let's see what Quick can do for a month at high A and see if he moves to AA right quick. Once there he would be just a step away from helping the MLB club.
  16. Dman
    I don't know if you have watched Olivar catch but he is not much of a catcher. Teams ran at will on him and he was no where close to throwing them out. He is not overly agile back there either. I just don't see him as a catcher at the MLB level
  17. Dman
    I tend to agree on Wallner. I think he knows he isn't performing well and is pressing. I think he is thinking to much instead of just reacting. I do think they will give him a couple more weeks to figure it out, but a reset at AAA to get the Mojo back sure seems like a good idea to me. He is hurting the team too much right now.
  18. Dman
    Agreed. He is still young. It is just so frustrating to see a pitcher with his stuff be so ineffective and nothing has changed the last two years that I can see. You'd think they work on stuff to help him find the edges of the zone, but he can't and down the middle the ball goes and the damage is done. He's got time this year to figure it out but with other arms that might need 40 man spots like Oliveros, Culpepper and Langenburg he doesn't have a ton of time. He needs to figure it out soon.
  19. Dman
    With the warmer weather Tait is crushing the ball. At 19 his OPS is better than Diaw and Houston who are three years older than he is. Have to admit I was worried about the lack of contact and K's early in the year, but he is stinging the ball now with more than half of his hits going for extra bases. If he can keep this up he might get promoted to AA before Diaw, Pena keeps swinging a hot bat. He has been a .400 hitter from the start of the season. Very consistent so far. With more walks than strikeouts. Another few weeks of this and they'll need to move him up. Mercedes continues to crush baseballs and just needs to stay consistent and he should move up as well. He has looked much better at the plate this year. Still just 21 so not real young for this level but not old either. I had to go back to Baseball America to figure out where the Twins got Dominguez from. He has been tearing the cover off the ball since the Twins moved him up to A ball when they moved Genth up. They got him from Mexico for 10,000 according to BA and he has hit the ground running with the best OPS on the team in a very small 5 game sample size. This guy might be something. For those of us who like little guys like Eeles here is your new hitter to dream on. The Twins have some very interesting young hitters at a ball. Young, Beltre, and Dominguez are all 19. Pena is 20 and Mercedes is 21. Nice to see those young bats grow and hopefully move up soon.
  20. Dman
    I agree the Twins will wait. I am not concerned about E-Rod's defense, but the K rate still looks like trouble to me. They will want to give Wallner more time to figure things out as he can be a streaky hitter. Martin and Larnach have been doing fine in their roles. I just don't see the Twins making a change like this unless there is an injury to someone. i don't think they will feel pressed to make a change until giving the main players a couple of months to get more data to make those decisions. April and its cold unpredictable weather is not a good month to make big decisions in IMO.
  21. Dman
    Yeah he had a .500 OPS last year with a fairly normalized BABIP around .300. Absolutely brutal full year numbers. It just shows how much the K's were killing him. At least he has a .745 OPS this year helped by 4 HR's and two doubles, but a 50% K rate ouch. There is work to do there as MLB pitching is much, much tougher than what he is facing right now. He's not exactly young either as he'll be 23 in May. Maybe LeBron could do better than that, maybe not. My concern on Lebron is his ability to hit anything that isn't a fastball and that is all he will be thrown if he can't hit that stuff.
  22. Dman
    A lot of boards won't get updated until the beginning of May. He is going to drop as it doesn't appear the swing and miss has improved. Still keep in mind Honeycutt had similar problems in 2024 and still was pick number 20. Lebron is tooled up and will look like a more decent risk later on. He looks to be back half of the first round unless teams just don't think the swing and miss is fixable. If that is the case he might fall into the second round kind of like Amick.
  23. Dman
    I like Flora and he seems at least for the moment to be top 4 or 5 on most boards. I don't know that I see a Skenes like path there, but he has top of the rotation stuff. You can never have too many potential top of the rotation arms in the system, but I just don't see Flora as the Twins pick at three. I think the Twins will go with a bat at three. You look at the farm system and current team and this team is in need of impact bats more than arms. Given that Cholowski, Emerson and Lackey appear to be top 3 I'd say the pick will be one of those players. Cholowski still appears to be the favorite to go number 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago cut a deal with Lackey. My reasoning would be that they just took a good defensive shortstop in Carlson last year and Catchers with Lackeys skills seem be a once a decade type of player. It is incredibly hard to find a catcher with potential elite defense and offense especially one who could play a solid third base or left field if needed. If they could get a player like that and save money I think they do that. It looks like Chicago will be in the running for another high pick next year and given how many shortstops there are at the top of boards it will be easier for them to take another crack next year. The odds of finding a catcher like Lackey might take another ten years. The Twins should be happy with any of the top three bats and if they can save a little money they could still get an ace level high school arm later in the draft. If they skip on the bat early going with Flora they will be hard pressed to find an elite bat in the second round. That is why so many teams go hitter first in the first round IMO. The Twins have found valuable arms later in the draft but I can't think of anyone outside the second round that has made it on the Twins with the bat. I like Flora and he might be worthy of the third overall pick, but I just don't see him jumping in over the top three bats.
  24. Dman
    Yeah he was looking great to start the season. Those hard throwers just seem to end up needing TJ. We'll see how things work out. Hopefully rest does the trick. He's got the stuff to be successful. Just needs to get healthy.
  25. Dman
    Nice to see Oliveros on his way back. Feels like the entire system is short on start on starting arms except maybe A ball. Hoping more arms come off that seven IL.
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