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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Trade Rumors seems to feel the deal is solid for the Twins. Still Tait is no sure thing to stay behind the plate and Abel needs development for his stuff to translate. Let's hope the Twins Dev teams are up to the task.
  2. Dman
    To me this shows just how badly they got screwed. At the deadline the seller should have the leverage and especially since he had 2 and half year left. The Twins couldn't even get throw in's in this deal? This whole deal makes them look weak IMO. If Abel really is good (mid rotation) a lot of us will have to eat our words, but he needs to work out because the odds of a high school\young catcher with good numbers at A ball working out is like 10% or something. It is super high risk. Again maybe Twins scouts see him translating well to higher levels, but I feel like we have been on that hope train before and these young guys at these lower levels never quite make it. When you have the prize of the deadline it seems odd for them to take on this level of risk to me. I just can't help, but question this trade. Saying all that I haven't watched Abel pitch nor Tait play. Hopefully they impress right away otherwise it feels like the Twins got worse today and not better. They don't need more 5th starter type arms or catchers who just aren't quite good enough.
  3. Dman
    I can't believe Seattle couldn't beat this. He would have really helped their pen and if the Twins could have worked a deal around Ford they would have a catcher close to ready. I am not a fan. They tried for painter and couldn't even pry away their third ranked prospect in Crawford who at least has star potential. How does Dombrowski do it? We need that guy on our side.
  4. Dman
    I don't know much about Tait. It looks like a promising bat and possibly could be decent behind the dish. I hope the Twins scouts got that one right because it seems like lot's of teenage catchers fall big time as they move up levels. The Twins will have a catcher in the top 100 for the first time since Joe Mauer I believe. If Abel pans out an arm for an arm sounds good, but Duran is an elite arm so I don't know. I hope Abel gets his control issues under control and it works out well for us. He's close so there's that. If these players work out as projected it's a steal for the Twins. Let's hope they work out. Have to say at the start I am disappointed in the return, but I haven't really watched these guys so maybe they are better than I think they are. I think Dombrowski got the best of them personally. Guy always wins deals. Nice get for them.
  5. Dman
    I think you could get something for Wallner for sure. He is the only who seems capable of OPSing .800. Larnach might get something as a platoon bat. The rest might get you a bag of balls or something. They all have little to no value that I can see. If you believe Clemens and his near .800 OPS are for real they could maybe get something for him, but likely not much. All the other guys are below replacement player level so no real value. Kiersey and Vasquez might have some defensive value. It is the deadline and strange things happen. We'll see.
  6. Dman
    If they are trading a lot of players they will get back plenty of relief arm prospects in those deals. They will also have the offseason to add arms and they could also move Prielipp, Raya, Ohl or others to the pen next year if they want to. It might not be a super strong pen next year depending on how many arms they trade, but I assume they will have higher upside position players and possibly more arms in these deals to reshape the team. We'll see how things look on Thursday night. I can't see them moving Varland as that would be a very steep price for another team to pay.
  7. Dman
    Yeah I think Abel, Crawford gets it done. Crawford has All Star upside if he ends up hitting in the air more Abel has maybe mid rotation upside but likely 5th starter and or at Least really good bullpen arm. That is a solid overpay. I could see that deal happening.
  8. Dman
    I understand the ask for Painter. They have some highly rated players, but to me they have plenty of warts too. I don't see Miller as a great fit with Culpepper and Houston on the way. Culpepper might have the better bat and better defensive skillset as well. I like Crawford but there are questions as to whether he will hit for Home run power. Granted he hits the ball harder than Martin, but would he somewhat face the same same fate? He also hits the ball on the ground at a very high rate. Those things might be fixable he is only 21 at AAA, but he is not without risk as he moves to MLB. Tait is an 18 year old catcher with a good hit tool and a ton of power. Not great defensively yet. So ton's of risk in that kind of profile even though he is a top 100 prospect. Still another super high risk prospect. Escobar looks like a real nice bat and solid player but he is yet another second baseman. The Twins have too many of those already, So yeah I can see why they asked for a more sure thing in Painter. Its one of the few things Philly can offer that might make a difference.
  9. Dman
    I guess I am curious why people suddenly now think Paddack was worth a 14 to 18 range prospect? There were thoughts the Twins wouldn't even be able to give him away. Lot's of articles with surprised writers that he went first let alone netted a decent prospect in return. It seems likely that the Tigers see something they like in Paddack and there was some desperation involved because they didn't like their other options for starters, otherwise why go after Paddack so early when they likely could have gotten someone better at the deadline for less? it just doesn't make sense to me that they would deal with a division rival early and not overpay in prospect capital and money. That's my take. I think the Twins just took the best deal and got them to pay for Dobnak as well. Detroit knew the price and was fine with that. Overpays happen at the deadline all the time. If it wasn't an overpay tell me why the Twins had to move him early?
  10. Dman
    There's so much we don't know that we could run a ton of scenarios to get the narrative where we want it. How do we know the Yankee's weren't low balling the Twins with a prospect outside their top 30? It's not like Paddack was even close to the best arm out there. Just a cheap one with some potential upside. Same with the Rays if there's a bargain to be had they are in. Maybe they didn't like reaching into their top 20 for Paddack, Maybe the Tigers were just desperate for a deal because they didn't have much for starting pitching as yet another starter went down and were willing to move the needle to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Even if meant taking on Dobnak's salary? Bottom line we just don't know what the other deals were and you can spin this any way you want too.
  11. Dman
    Yeah they would almost need Matthews unless they just play Lee there the next year or so. Hard to find a decent shortstop in FA without spending a fair bit of money. I think they only get him if they pay down future years in the contract though. If Correa kind of wants to go back would the Twins try and stop him? I am guessing they could get a deal done if Houston is willing to play ball. It would make the Twins a younger team again with more young players on the way. Not sure how I feel about it, but it sure seems like a possibility as Houston could use a veteran bat and a guy they know excels in the playoffs.
  12. Dman
    Yeah I don't know. It seems like a trap either way. The Twins could trade Correa to the Astros and pay down his salary this year to help them not go over. Maybe pay 10M of his salary next year and 5 the year after if Houston will send back a decent prospect in return. That one move would make room for all the arb raises and give the team money to spend again to round out the roster. Paying another team to take a good player and then essentially paying them to keep that good player is gonna be a really tough look if Correa gets hot in Houston. Still the fit for whatever reason just hasn't been the best in Minnesota. It's not like both sides aren't trying. but maybe home is where the heart is and maybe Correa can get his game and life back on track in Houston? I don't know what the best answer is, but it has been tough sledding with Correa the last three years.
  13. Dman
    That was a great first inning by Ohl. You can see the potential with the three K's. After that it was some pretty hard contact the rest of the way with balls hit hard and traveling deep. They seemed to easily square up his stuff. He needs more deception because they didn't fall for many of his out of zone pitches after the first inning. He had a lot of them at 2 strikes but could not finish them off. He has that beautiful change, but there is work to be done. If he can't hack it as a starter there is nice reliever potential there. The Red Sox look like a good team. A few pieces away from being a great team. Looks like there will likely be a power shift in the east if they can find enough pitching.
  14. Dman
    I don't think the video is matching up with the content.
  15. Dman
    I tend to agree. How many games has Jax coughed up (seven or so)? He also is too predictable IMO. Throwing it into the ground in front of the plate. Maybe it is old school, but power reliever's just seem to be valued more and despite the OP's excellent analysis I think he is valued more than Jax. Maybe I am wrong, but I thought Duran's velocity dip had more to do with just controlling his pitches better. I thought I saw him dial one up to 102 fairly recently. I do agree he gives up incredibly solid contact on his pitches at times but the fact he doesn't give up home runs means he isn't going to lose the game on one swing. Both relievers have had issues throwing strikes at times and that has hurt them. Their FIP and xFIP are close. All their stats match up pretty nice with Jax having an edge on swinging strikes. You can make a case for either one. I just like Duran better in the closer role so I would keep him.
  16. Dman
    I still think Stewart is the one they trade and maybe Jax as well. Stewart looked great last night. He looked dominant, but he is our oldest arm and it is just hard to say how long he holds up. He could be fine the next three years or might not be. I still think he could net a strong return probably not all that far off from Jax or Duran. I can't think of a time when the Twins have been positioned this well to demand more than they likely deserve in trade for his services. I'd pull the trigger there with an overpay. Jax is getting older too. I really like the stuff and think with better sequencing, high, low, inside, outside he can be even better. Still if they can get a large overpay I would do it. I would hang onto Duran. He should be a top arm in any market. I think they get about the same for him next year as this year. He is young. He puts on a good show when he comes in and he is just fun to watch. I would hold off and see how things shake out after these trades and they can decide if they want to trade him next year or not. I can't think of package I would be willing to trade for Ryan. It would need to be super star for super star. Can't see it happening.
  17. Dman
    Yeah they have some Rule V guys that can get early work if the Twins plan on adding them like Prielipp, MaCleod, Klein, and Culpepper. If Raya can put things together they could run him out there as well.
  18. Dman
    I had kind of lost site of Ohl, He has always needed to get his K rate up to get his chance and last year he still hadn't done that. I knew he was doing pretty well this year, but had no idea just how well. I have always really liked his aggressive approach to pitching. He has worked really hard to get his chance and I am happy to see he is getting one. It will be interesting to see if the new arsenal will work at the MLB level. I am excited to see what he can do. I hope he can be a future arm we can bank on. We will know more after tonight. Good luck Pierson Ohl!
  19. Dman
    He has a long way to go and his ceiling is limited, but I have warmed up to him as a prospect. I do like that he looks like a really strong defensive catcher. It is so key to staying a catcher through all the levels. Eye at the plate is good and that generally leads to fewer issues with the bat when moving up levels. As far as rankings go I do feel that teenage catchers get ranked too high, too early and many seem to just fall off completely. So I would agree with Seth that I would have him rated a little lower for now. We really won't know much until AA when the pitching gets tougher. Paddack's ERA and inconsistent starts left me wondering what the return might be. Since this player is still in the FCL you could still argue he is more of a lotto ticket than prospect. but personally I like the return. He brings depth to a system that needs more catching depth and his overall skillset looks strong at a young age. I feel like the Twins came out OK on this deal and most prospect evaluators seem to agree the Twins came out pretty well in this deal.
  20. Dman
    I tend to agree. It would take more than just Ford, but I think if he was the headliner in the deal Minnesota could work it out. He meets a lot of what I think the FO has requested for a deal to get done. He is a top 100 prospect rated 49 right now. He has been young at every level and hit well with good plate discipline at every level. The Twins haven't had a top 100 catcher in the system since Joe Mauer so that would be a nice get and he is a system need. You would be trading something of value and getting something of value back. I think Seattle is one of the few teams that might be able to pry Duran from the Twins. If they threw in Sloan I could see them adding Coulombe or Bader or Castro. Whoever they like best to get the deal over the line. That would meet Minnesota's 2 top 100 prospects request and net them their future catcher and a young arm for the future. Seattle gets two elite arms for the playoff run. I don't know if Seattle would do it, but I think that would interest the Twins. If they use Ford to get Suarez I'd say the deal is off and I think Seattle should focus on getting Suarez. Big bats in the playoffs are difference makers in tight games. I think there are other ways for them to deal with the pen, but man their pen would be pretty unstoppable with Duran in it. I t would be really difficult for other teams to bust through their top three arms ala the KC Royals. Also they would have Duran for the next two years and Suarez likely gone after this year.
  21. Dman
    Excellent article Matthew! I really enjoyed it! I feel like Sim doesn't get a lot of love. More the forgotten arm, but he is a pretty steady reliable force and I think he will get even better in time. I love the old school approach.
  22. Dman
    I might regret saying this, but if the return was right for a catcher or legit centerfielder I'd trade one of jax or Duran, I think the team can withstand losing one of those top end arms if it brings back something they really need. I'd like to think that between, Castro, Bader and Coulombe they get get back some near ready relief arms from other clubs to help make up for the lose of an arm there. Still it has been nice to have a strong pen and messing with that makes me uneasy, but if you are going to trade a reliever that covers just one inning that seems like a good play. I am torn a bit on that one. I wouldn't just trade to trade as they have years of control left. If you get a good overpay with things we need included I think I'd do that.
  23. Dman
    I do feel a distinction needs to be made about deadline deals. When teams are trading for rentals the buyer's aren't planning on "winning" those deals long term. The worst the sellers can do is get nothing in the end, but they can get good players out of those deals and they have leverage because they have something the buyer needs. The buyer's motivation at the deadline is that assets that don't help the team in the current moment are expendable to make the team more playoff ready. So when you look back at deadline deals unless that team won a world series because of their deadline acquisition's (Atlanta. etc.) they are going to lose those deals long term every time and they are fine with that. The goal is to prep the team for a world series run so they don't care if they "lose" these deals if it helps them strengthen the team. Granted it doesn't always go according to plan as only one team will be the winner, but I think the motivation is important to remember when "grading" these deals.
  24. Dman
    I would think it would be hard to get a 50 AV player for a rental or even multiple rentals. It's possible that Suarez might net something like that from the right team as he has a top to 10 OPS bat in all of MLB. Cruz brought a larger return than most anticipated for the same reason. We've seen big bats carry teams in the playoffs before so I can see the alure of the overpay for something like that for Seattle or Milwaukee. I think depending on need some rentals could command a 45FV player in a sort bidding war but it seems most transaction are for 40 or 40+ FV players sometimes multiple players with someone fairly close and flyer on someone further away. I would love to know if someone has done research in this area. Not all available players are equal in value so might be just too subjective to measure.
  25. Dman
    Wondering if the Twins could package Stewart and Castro in a bid to get the catcher Janek from Houston? With all their injuries they might be fairly desperate to land Castro and.Houston doesn't want to cross the luxury tax threshold. Both players would come cheap enough to keep them under the threshold. They also are looking for lefty bats so maybe they prefer Larnach to Stewart hard to say, but if the Twins could get a legit catcher in the system that would be nice.
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