Dman

Yeah I tend to agree it is going to take some time to get that K rate down if it ever appreciably does come down. I've been looking for any positive signs I can find for him. He did have a .760 OPS in May so he strung some good games together there and he currently has a .700 OPS in June which isn't horrible considering he K's at a 44% rate. I think if you look at the 19 year old Luis Fragosa who plays on the team with Young you can see what Young might become if he can drop the K rate. Fragosa has had a .900 OPS in May and in June and is a pretty big guy as well. The main difference is he is only striking out about 20% of the time. Young has a big body and looks like he could comfortably add even more strength than he already has. The hope is he translates those bat to ball skills as he can really crush a baseball. Hopefully we see improvement as the year progresses. Still as you mentioned it will probably take a couple of years to know how well the skills he has will translate.

Yeah I think your analysis is sound which is why so many teams do it when it makes sense. The other concern I have is that other teams below us in the revenue sharing bucket are willing to go over giving them a slight competitive advantage. It would be nice if could at least up the anti every now and then.

Jamie, love your draft coverage! I'd be happy with any of the those three. Hopefully they find some good pitching to go along with the hitter they pick. I don't know if you have any clout with the FO, but can someone put a bug in Tom's ear about spending to the 5% overage? That would give this team another 800,000 to play with which could help grab talent that falls down the board. I believe he said he was willing to spend when it made sense and I can't think of better of place to spend 800,000 than in search of cheap, controllable young talent.

Well the sad thing is right now almost half way through the season he has the second highest OPS on the team next to Buxton at .800 so he is pretty valuable to the Twins at the moment.

I'd say it depends on where his OPS ends up at the end of the year. While he's never had an .800 OPS before he was around .770 in 2024. We just paid Josh Bell 7M to be a less flexible defensive player with around a .740 OPS the last three years. I think Larnach can do that especially if protected from lefties. Unless Larnach drops that OPS back down to the .725 range I don't think he will be a borderline none tender. We'll have to wait and see where he lands. Right now for the trade deadline the athletic has him at number 37 out of 50 players so they feel he has value. FWIW Bell did not make their list. I think Larnach is more valuable than many assume regardless of his limitations.

What I meant by efficient was throwing about 15 pitches per innings which if throwing 100 pitches in a game would get you to 6 or seven innings and I think that is efficient. He threw 32 through two innings that's right around that mark. Efficient or not he didn't have three or four walks so much improved from some outings.

Yeah that is pretty much my basic thinking as well. The Twins, last I heard, were looking to improve their outfield defense and Rosario also has holes in his swing. He's a pretty typical power over hit bat and there might be value there in time, but he is behind several players. As mentioned above unless he goes on an absolute tear at the plate I don't see them adding him to the crowded outfield mix to protect from Rule V. I like what he's done to become better, but he is gonna need more to get there IMO.

I was wondering if they would give him a chance when I looked and he hadn't given up a run in June at AAA with a 0.50 WHIP. It's time to see what he looks like at the big league level. Congrats to Raya and I hope he is good enough to stay as he has good velocity and plus pitches. We'll see how it goes.

Some team is going to get a good deal when they trade for Larnach. I don't know that he can stay at an .800 OPS but right now if he qualified he would be around top 50 in OPS in all of MLB., If he stays at that level that's an incredibly valuable bat. He's pretty much always done well against righties and likely needs protection from lefties, but it's still a potent bat. He's not a great defender but serviceable which gives him some flexibility. If the Twins are trading him and I needed\wanted a good lefty bat he'd be on my list. I think this is pretty much who he is at this point. He has a good approach and hits the ball hard. He's on a hot streak right now and likely to come down some, but I think his bat lands in the .760 to .810 OPS area if protected from lefties. I am a bit torn and with the 2027 strike seeming likely and the outfield getting really full it sure seems like a good time to trade him. I agree that at 29 the odds of him helping this team as currently constructed seems minimal so maybe getting a piece of the future for him makes too much sense. We'll see where he sits as far as OPS around the deadline. If his OPS drops considerably so does his value and teams don't tend to trade for many position players at the deadline as they do for arms. Have to wait and see how this looks at the end of July.

I kind of thought they would let Hill go three innings or at least 50 pitches, but maybe they just wanted to stop with him having a successful outing or are being mindful of innings limit. Still it was nice to see him throwing more strikes and being more efficient. Hopefully this be a new trend that continues forward.

Happy to see Houston get promoted to AA. This is the step that will show just how ready or not ready the bat is. Lot's of bat's struggle at AA. Hoping he stays on the Culpepper path, but we'll see. Since the weather warmed up Thomason has been on a tear. A much deserved promotion for him as well. Man, Rosario has been the odd man out for so long it's nice to see him finally get to AAA. I think he'll do just fine there. Gonna be interesting to see if the Twins think he is worthy of a 40 man spot or let him ride into Rule V. Also nice to see Pena move up. He can hit but his OPS is not where you'd like to see it. Power should come in time and it is time for him to move up. A little surprised Sprock wasn't moved up as he has had a hot bat for a while now. Maybe they want him to catch more? Hard to say. Was also wondering if they would promote Fragosa a little early but I guess they are gonna give him some more time. Maybe after Kendle gets healthy and moves up then they'll move Fragosa. I thought they also might move Amick up, but probably just fine to leave him at AA with the in zone swing and miss issues. At any rate happy to see some promotions and here's hoping those players have no issues adapting to the next level.

I'm in the camp of not ready to promote Tait just yet. He has been pretty streaky as a hitter this year. I'd like to see him continue to hit this well into July. If he can't then he is not ready. No reason to rush him and he needs to work on his defense and walk rate\chase rate. I'd keep him right where he is for now. Culpepper is on the Rule V list for the end of this year so if they think he can contribute at the MLB level adding him a little early would allow for him to get some MLB experience. I'd want to see a bit more before adding him, but if he keeps this up he'll be in the conversation.

Yep the draft is hard. Only a small percentage make it and most of those are first round picks IIRC. You can go with the greater odds of success and still lose because we just don't know for sure if someone will reach their "potential" or just fail. Still you have to do your best with evaluation and strategy and hope for good results. It seems like the Angels haven't been that good beyond the first round, There have been good players in drafts after the first round, but they haven't found them or developed them well. The Brewers on the other hand.....

Teams have different philosophies. I'd say the Miami Marlins are a team that prioritizes pitching and they have had some good arms over the years, but they have also struggled to find good bats to go with it. It takes both good offense and defense to be a really good team. Balance is key when it comes to drafting unless you are a top revenue team as then you can just buy what you need no matter what happens in the draft. Pitching is very important and you are not wrong in your statement about top of the rotation pitching for the Twins. I would hope Bradley can be Joe Ryan like and was thinking Abel might be as well, but with his arm injuries that seems doubtful now. I still think Prielipp and Rojas can be mid rotation guys a step below a Ryan type arm, but after that the there isn't much behind them. I was hoping Hill and Soto two young arms would look closer to ready but they are not. Quick was the Twins 1st round supplemental pick and has looked good in short stints, but has a ways to go. Beyond those arms not much that I see for top of the rotation arms. So no question the Twins could use more high quality arms. We'll see what they do. They watch all these players a ton so they should have a good idea of what direction they want to go.

I feel like there were more questions about Lee's power and his ability to stay at short than Cholowsky. Lee was always expected to move off short but the bat was supposed to carry him. I think Cholowsky would be rated quite a bit higher than Lee ever was but I think Lee was projected as top 5 in his draft as a fast moving bat first player.

Pitcher versus hitter has been debated quite a bit on this board. Pick the right arm and it can change your team for years to come. Here are some things I'd say teams likely consider if for this example we say Flora and Emerson are rated equally. First a pitcher impacts your team once every 5 days and a position player impacts your team everyday. So just based on that you can see a position player has a leg up in the debate. Second arms (pitchers) get hurt at a higher rate than position players and the recovery for arms is longer than most injuries a position player would have. Some arm injuries are career ending or turn your starter into a bullpen arm. Position players get hurt too, but the risk there is lower than a pitcher. Third you'll notice that because of the first and second reasons top position players tend to come off the board before arms. With most position players of consequence gone by the second round. Whereas impact arms can be found all over the draft. Joe Ryan was a 7th round pick and there are plenty of other arms that have made it that are drafted lower. The odds of a position player making it outside the second round are lower than finding an arm so the draft tends to go heavy on hitters in first two rounds and heavy on arms the rest of the way. This is a long way of saying that if you don't get your bat right away you likely won't get one at all. So IMO the odds favor you taking your position players early and hoping you find that diamond in the rough arm later, Does that mean you should never take a pitcher early? Of course not. Every prospect can fail despite the most glowing scouting reports. IMO Times when it makes sense to take a pitcher high. One would be if you are a rebuilding team. Having a nearly complete pitcher draft from top to bottom would make sense. Arms fail at a higher rate and you need high quality arms to compete. Arms tend to take a bit longer to develop so getting started on building your rotation would make sense and you can buy impact bats easier (cheaper) than arms so it makes sense to start with arms. Two would be teams like the Phillies, Dodgers or Yankee's who tend to like to buy their bats and have the means to buy bats so they can go arms early while other teams are grabbing position players. Or if your team already has a great offense a pitcher draft can help as arms break down so much you always need pitching. In conclusion I think all things being equal a team would take the position player simply based on impact and less risk. Still they can always choose to take a risk on any arm if they feel good about the player and every team needs a good 5 starters. The Twins have had issues finding good bats to go along with good defense. I'd expect them to go with a position player, but they have surprised us before and Flora looks to be a solid pick. We'll see what happens in a few weeks.

You never know with Tampa as they seem to love the younger high school players. I don't know if that is because there is a greater likelihood of buying out years when they make it or if they just feel the upside is generally greater, but they do seem to focus on younger players. That being said they are a playoff team right now and getting one of the two top fast moving college bats who both play premium positions sure seems like it makes a lot of sense. I still think the Sox go Cholowsky and I don't know how the Rays feel about Lackey, but his bat and versatility sure make me think they will take him at 2, but we'll see. If by some miracle Chicago took Lackey and the Rays took Emerson or Flora or someone else. I guess that scenario would allow Cholowsky to fall, but it seems like a long shot to me. However, I said the same thing about Brooks Lee falling to the Twins and that magically happened as well. You never know what teams have lined up in the draft so things can change right at the top, but as strong as these three appear to be it feels like Emerson is the one who falls to the Twins IMO.

I hate to be that guy, but I do think they will go cold at some point here and plumet back down. We'll see what happens, but as you said I feel like we have been here before a couple of times already and there are some pretty glaring weaknesses that seem tough to overcome. I will say they have surprised me with series wins over the Cardinals and Dback while Sweeping Texas in their house. If they get swept by the Dodgers though all this is mute.

Fragoza is one big boy for a 19 year old. Although only 6'1" he looks thicker than Young who is 6'6". They both have some power. Only about 100 trips to the plate at A ball for Fragoza but he is slugging over .500 and has a .916 OPS. He's currently not walking much so an aggressive approach which can catch up to guys. Still a lot to dream on here given the success he is having at 19. Hopefully he gets a chance at High A if keeps this up through June. Sprock looks ready for a callup. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of movement next week for players in the FCL, A, A+, and AA. Second half of the season will be starting soon.

Hard to say what we have yet in Hill and Soto, but both Abel and Bradley were High School picks and they look pretty good. I guess my challenge to you would be how many hitters on the Twins have made it outside the 1st round? Jeffers, and maybe Keaschal and even they were 2nd round picks? That's all I can think of off the top of my head. Lot's of arms have. For bats in the first round you have Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Jackson, Lewis. Rooker all taken in the first round or supplemental 1st round. It's really hard to find bats outside the top two rounds, but arms can be found all over. I think Joe Ryan our current number one arm was a 7th round pick. Ober and Matthews were late round picks that is 3 out of 5 rotation spots filled by arms outside the first round. If you include Bradley who was a 5th round pick it's 4 out of 5. Most all HS picks are high risk high reward as there is so much development that has to be done. Still I think the odds are better to go bat first arm later if you want to maximize value throughout your draft.

First things first. Great write up Cody! I've come to see things pretty much the same as this article. While I agree with Doc that I see a nice top 5 or 6 the top 3 appears strong enough to hold IMO. There's a variety of reasons but I think Cholowsky and Lacky go 1 and 2. I do think the Sox will go with the consensus number 1 player from early this year. Cholowsky should be a fast mover and having a shortstop with his power seems too tough to pass up. As others have noted they have catching in their system so Lackey is not a "need". I know Tampa loves their High School players, but Lackey makes a ton of sense for them. He too should move fairly fast and catchers with his skill set just don't come around that often The Rays are contending right now so I'd think a college player makes more sense, but its the Rays and anything could happen at number 2 including Bell so that they can grab some young arms later in the draft. Still I think Lackey makes a lot of sense for them. I like Emerson and given the Twins have so much talent at AAA and just starting out at the MLB level having a guy that might take an extra year or two seems like a good plan to me. Going High School bat for number 1 and taking a High School pitcher at pick 2 seems like a good plan to keep the system full of young potential elite players. The only downside is that it can be harder to get HS players to sign for less money and I am hoping the Twins can save some money for High School arms in the later rounds. Still I think Emerson is a nice pick for the Twins if he is the last one of the three left. I just don't see the Twins taking Flora even though I get the logic. If they take a pitcher at three there is no way they can find a bat somewhat equal to Cholowsky, Emerson or Lackey at 43, but the High School arm they take at three could turn into a Flora type arm if they get the right one. So it seems more prudent to go bat first arm second IMO. If Lackey is still there at three I'd go with him as it feels like value meets need in a good way there. Still I think the pick will be Emerson and that's a great pick for the Twins.

It makes sense that teams are interested as he is a 5 tool player on a bad team. So to some extent I get it. Still it Sucks that Buxton has to deal with this every year, but I do love his response. I also love that he is all in on this team just makes us all love him more.

I am pessimistic about their chances. I think putting up this pen against good to really good teams is going to be their downfall. They have a three game set coming up with the Dodgers and Yankee's where it will be tough to find wins and they face Cleveland a bunch in July as well. I don't like their odds of being all that close at the end of July, but yeah baseball is a strange sport in that teams can go on winning and losing streaks that defy the odds. So who knows. They are going to be getting some arms back so that could help things. They have been hitting pretty well lately so that bodes well for winning games. Still this team in general has been maddening in its ups and downs. Certainly not as bad as Detroit or KC,, but this team still seems to be trying to find themselves. It is pretty early to say what shape they will be in by the end of July, but I still think the odds are against them making the playoffs. I certainly wouldn't waste assets adding guys, but they could stand pat and take their chances if they are close to a wild card spot.

Raya for the month of June. 8 innings pitched, 0.0 Era, 7 K's and a WHIP of 0.50. It sure looks like he is angling for a callup. They will probably give him to the end of the month to see if he can keep this up, but if he does keep this going I bet we see him in July.

Totally agree with Doc. Happy he was willing to return. He was a big part of that St. Paul team. If I were him I would try and focus on getting to more power while at St. Paul. That might catch the Twins or another teams eye.