The Twins Should be Shopping Sonny Gray

[farmerguychris]

They'd be fools to at least not listen to offers.  They don't need to be the sellers  here, they can sit and see what others try to sell them for him and see if it makes sense long term.  

[USAFChief]

Well hopefully if Falvine does trade Gray they get a haul like for Berrios. We need to make sure St Paul's 2025 rotation has a fifth starter sporting a 6+ ERA and a no power, no position hitter with a sub .200 BA.

 

The point: trading talent for prospects sometimes works, but gets you little or nothing far more often than it gets you something. Nobody seems to want to acknowledge that. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Well hopefully if Falvine does trade Gray they get a haul like for Berrios. We need to make sure St Paul's 2025 rotation has a fifth starter sporting a 6+ ERA and a no power, no position hitter with a sub .200 BA.

 

The point: trading talent for prospects sometimes works, but gets you little or nothing far more often than it gets you something. Nobody seems to want to acknowledge that. 

I disagree that no one acknowledges that prospects are risky. Of course, so are veterans (Mahle and Motas come to mind from last year's deadline). No team is built w/o using prospects....the more you have that are likely to be good, the more good MLB players you'll end up with. 

They could end up with something like Cincy did for Mahle or Castillo......(not that good on the 2nd one, I'd guess). They could end up with what the Twins got for Berrios (which is still more than they would have got if they didn't trade him).

[Thebigalguy]

Counterintuitive but interesting. I don’t see it happening. I think the FO believes the offense will catch fire. Buxton can’t get any worse. Correa seems to be finding his groove. The youngsters have a shot. Polanco is coming back. Believe it or not, I’m optimistic. Call me naive if you want. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Thebigalguy said:

Counterintuitive but interesting. I don’t see it happening. I think the FO believes the offense will catch fire. Buxton can’t get any worse. Correa seems to be finding his groove. The youngsters have a shot. Polanco is coming back. Believe it or not, I’m optimistic. Call me naive if you want. 

What youngsters? Who does Polanco replace?

I agree, the FO thinks this O will be better w/o doing anything.

[Minny505]

The retirement quote should have nothing to go with any decision regarding Sonny. Many good players say such things in their early-to-mid 30's, and other than John Jaso, none of them have voluntarily followed thru.

A modern parallel example is Charlie Morton. He said almost the exact same thing during his age 34 season and here he is, five years later, taking the pill every five days.

[Larry Janisewski]

4 hours ago, gman said:

I want to see the Twins as an ACTUAL good team, not the best of a lousy group. They struggled to beat Oakland for crying out loud. They got their hats handed to them by Baltimore in the last series after their vaunted team meeting. If they can get overwhelmed by not only Gray but a few other players take the deals. They can probably do as well in the division without him.

While the Oakland sweep was "ugly" at least the Twins figured out a way to win the series. Oakland swept the powerful Atlanta Braves a few weeks ago.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

He should absolutely be shopped!!  As I've said numerous times here, the Twins should be buyers AND sellers.  This is a chance to re-work a roster that hasn't had a legit LH starter since the Johan Santana/Francisco Liriano era and can't hit LH pitching themselves.  If the offer for Gray is a good one (and you can get some premium offers at the deadline for SP's) then take it.  Plus, Sonny Gray is practically having a career year.  At some point (maybe it's already happening) he will regress back to a pitcher with a 3.20 to 3.60 ERA.  His current WHIP of 1.27 is not bad, but it's certainly not stellar.  

The Twins could turn around with the prospects they acquired in a Gray trade and make a deal for Blake Snell (who is also an UFA next year) or for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez if they would be willing to pay $18 million in 2024, 1nd $15.4 million in 2025 and 2026.  I'd actually prefer having Ed. Rod at those prices for 3 years than Gray at $20 million per year for the next 3 seasons.  Ed Rod is 3 years younger and LH to boot!  Maeda may not be long for our rotation and he certainly won't be a part of it next year.  Any deals made (both buying and selling) MUST have an eye on 2024 

As soon as Polanco is healthy I'd look to move him.  Julien may not be a good defender but the bat is undeniable.  Lewis and Lee could play some 2B as well for future seasons.  I'd be interested what some teams would give up for Larnach to strengthen our bullpen or SP.  If "anything' could be gotten for Kepler or Gallo I'd look into it.  Rental bats like Bellinger or Pham shouldn't cost too much in prospect capital.  

Heck, the Reds are legit as are the Orioles.  What would they be willing to give up to add Gray to their staff?  You'll never know unless you're willing to talk.  

FYI, Rodriguez's deal is a player opt out after this year so the Twins willingness to pay likely doesn't matter because he's going to opt out unless he gets hurt before the end of the year.

[Coach Wheels]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Nobody trading FOR Gray is taking a middle of the order bat OUT of their lineup. 

Fair but this team isn't viable without a RH bat. Buxton is clearly not the answer in the middle of the lineup and our young guys are LH hitters.

I'm also fine keeping Gray and offering him an extension. Maybe we'll shut everyone out in the playoffs. 🙂

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The point: trading talent for prospects sometimes works, but gets you little or nothing far more often than it gets you something. Nobody seems to want to acknowledge that. 

Yeah, it's a risky proposition for sure, especially getting back the prospects since they are the unknown. If I were to guess, I bet most trades end up with the side getting the veteran finding out he was never going to be the difference maker they thought he'd be, while the side getting the prospects finds out that they weren't worth the hype. At least looking back at Twins trades that's how it usually seems to be. Less than half are either 'good' or 'bad' in the larger scheme of things, most are just a pointless wash.

But with Falvey already saying that the team isn't looking to make big additions, and with Pohlad the Younger saying he expects more from the current group and there's a sense of urgency, my money is on the idea that ownership has already told the front office that they're not getting another shot to flub a big trade; they've made their bed and they're going to have to win with the players they already have, or someone else will get a shot to do it.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

taking the pill every five days.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it's a risky proposition for sure, especially getting back the prospects since they are the unknown. If I were to guess, I bet most trades end up with the side getting the veteran finding out he was never going to be the difference maker they thought he'd be, while the side getting the prospects finds out that they weren't worth the hype. At least looking back at Twins trades that's how it usually seems to be. Less than half are either 'good' or 'bad' in the larger scheme of things, most are just a pointless wash.

But with Falvey already saying that the team isn't looking to make big additions, and with Pohlad the Younger saying he expects more from the current group and there's a sense of urgency, my money is on the idea that ownership has already told the front office that they're not getting another shot to flub a big trade; they've made their bed and they're going to have to win with the players they already have, or someone else will get a shot to do it.

I don't know if this is accurate or not, but I really hope that's the situation behind closed doors. I don't want this FO to get any sort of shot at a rebuild. They had the chance to build. If they couldn't do it they don't get to try again. Some trades on the margins? Fine, go get another Fulmer type pen arm, but trades that include any real prospects, coming or going, shouldn't be on the table. Unless it's just an absolute joke of an offer and someone wants to send us 3 top 100 guys for Gray, or Goldy for Larnach. But I find that to be unlikely.

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, gman said:

I want to see the Twins as an ACTUAL good team, not the best of a lousy group. They struggled to beat Oakland for crying out loud. They got their hats handed to them by Baltimore in the last series after their vaunted team meeting. If they can get overwhelmed by not only Gray but a few other players take the deals. They can probably do as well in the division without him.

Chicago won twice in Atlanta and the Rays lost yesterday to KC. Sweeps aren't guaranteed even for the best teams, especially on the road. Yes, Oakland is bad, but so are KC and Chicago White Sox. This whole idea that the superior team will win every game against the inferior team is ridiculous. If the Braves play the A's, Royals and Rockies, they probably win seven. The Twins have played KC and Oakland and won them all, that's pretty good. That they were swept in between by Baltimore diminished what they've done, but 6-3 against the three teams is about what can be expected of a team just above .500.

Assuming decent health, I expect the Twins to win between 85-90 games (easy schedule!) and win the Central. They should have a "chip and a chair" in the playoffs and that would include Sonny Gray. I really don't see trading him to add prospects when they have a great chance to make the playoffs and get a home series against the last Wild Card in the AL.

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Chicago won twice in Atlanta and the Rays lost yesterday to KC. Sweeps aren't guaranteed even for the best teams, especially on the road. Yes, Oakland is bad, but so are KC and Chicago White Sox. This whole idea that the superior team will win every game against the inferior team is ridiculous. If the Braves play the A's, Royals and Rockies, they probably win seven. The Twins have played KC and Oakland and won them all, that's pretty good. That they were swept in between by Baltimore diminished what they've done, but 6-3 against the three teams is about what can be expected of a team just above .500.

Yes we swept Oakland but each of the games looked like it was in jeopardy and the sweep might have gone the other way.  It's maddening not to put away an opponent of that caliber when you can. 

It's like watching the box scores for Dallas Keuchel in his time with St Paul so far - yes the ERA is shiny, but he's allowing runners on base (or putting them there, WHIP 1.4) and just generally not putting away these AAA hitters like you would hope for someone who may turn out to be needed.

The results in both cases are what you want, but the forecast of how it would go against the next level of competition isn't as rosy.  I think that's where the glass half full / glass half empty discussion is coming from. 

We swept Oakland, yay, three wins closer to the post-season, against teams who won't be Oakland.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Chicago won twice in Atlanta and the Rays lost yesterday to KC. Sweeps aren't guaranteed even for the best teams, especially on the road. Yes, Oakland is bad, but so are KC and Chicago White Sox. This whole idea that the superior team will win every game against the inferior team is ridiculous. If the Braves play the A's, Royals and Rockies, they probably win seven. The Twins have played KC and Oakland and won them all, that's pretty good. That they were swept in between by Baltimore diminished what they've done, but 6-3 against the three teams is about what can be expected of a team just above .500.

Assuming decent health, I expect the Twins to win between 85-90 games (easy schedule!) and win the Central. They should have a "chip and a chair" in the playoffs and that would include Sonny Gray. I really don't see trading him to add prospects when they have a great chance to make the playoffs and get a home series against the last Wild Card in the AL.

If you go way back to that series right before the KC one they played Baltimore in Baltimore and won 2 of 3. Pushing their record against Baltimore, KC, and Oakland since the last day of June to 8-4 since the "vaunted team meeting." I'm not a big believer at all in this offense, but 8-4 isn't far off from what you'd expect any team to do in that stretch.

I think they end up with 84-88 wins (basically what I expected coming into the year) still, and get into the playoffs. A chip and a chair is better than the team hitting the links in early October. I wouldn't bet on them to win the World Series, and maybe not even to win 1 series, but I'd bet on them breaking "the streak," and you have to start somewhere. Get into the playoffs and see what happens.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Well hopefully if Falvine does trade Gray they get a haul like for Berrios. We need to make sure St Paul's 2025 rotation has a fifth starter sporting a 6+ ERA and a no power, no position hitter with a sub .200 BA.

 

The point: trading talent for prospects sometimes works, but gets you little or nothing far more often than it gets you something. Nobody seems to want to acknowledge that. 

Yeah, you can rebuild like the Royals or like the Orioles. It looks like Baltimore is going to be good for a while and Kansas City might lose a hundred games a year until Bobby Witt Jr. is a free agent.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Yes we swept Oakland but each of the games looked like it was in jeopardy and the sweep might have gone the other way.  It's maddening not to put away an opponent of that caliber when you can. 

It's like watching the box scores for Dallas Keuchel in his time with St Paul so far - yes the ERA is shiny, but he's putting men on base (WHIP 1.4) and just generally not putting away these AAA hitters like you would hope for someone who may turn out to be needed.

The results are what you want, but the forecast of how it would go against the next level of competition isn't as rosy.  I think that's where the glass half full / glass half empty discussion is coming from. 

We swept Oakland, yay, three wins closer to the post-season, against teams who won't be Oakland.

The Twins were .500 overall against the 3 current wild card teams. They were .500 against 2 of the other 3 teams with the best chances at the wild card, and are about to head to Seattle to play the other. So against Baltimore, Toronto, Houston, Boston, NYY, and Seattle they're currently 16-16 with 7 to play against Seattle. That is a much better (while still insufficient) sample size than 3 games against Oakland I'd think. That looks like a chip and a chair to me. Going 0-7, 1-6, 2-5 against Seattle over the next week+? That'd definitely change the view. But going 7-0, 6-1, 5-2 would swing it the other way, too.

I agree I'd like to see them not need Duran in all 3 games against Oakland, but Oakland wins games, too. Sweeping people, no matter how it looks, in MLB is hard. I'm not putting any money on these guys winning the world series, but I think all the nitpicking of records vs this team or that team is misleading in both directions. They've been solid against the teams they're most likely to play in the WC round. I'd love to see a single series win even if it leads into an ALDS sweep. At least remind us what it feels like to win a couple games in October.

[Wizard11]

Much ado over nothing.  Sonny Gray is not getting traded, shopped, nor is he retiring at the end of the year.  My worst Twins nightmare is waking up and finding out that a collective of negative TD commenters is now running the FO.  I appreciate the commenters (many of whom are long time participants) in here who provide nuanced and unique insight about our team and the game.  From the rest the torrent of negative commentary is a buzzkill.  The team is in first place, will likely win the division and has a very good pitching staff. If you are a Twins fan let’s try to enjoy the ride. To the trolls let me say that you will have all winter to tell us you are right if the Twins flop.  Go bother Yankees fans until then.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

If you seriously think that the Twins can sell and still be a competitive team, you are delusional. Who do you want taking the ball every fifth day? Varland? Headrick? Woods-Richardson? Sands? Winder? What if one of Maeda/Ryan/Ober/Lopez gets hurt? Also, a playoff rotation needs to include four— especially since the introduction of the WC round. Maeda is going into the bullpen, as he did when he was in LA, and I doubt anyone wants to see the equivalent of Randy Dobnak in Yankee Stadium again.

After this season, the Twins have four years of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Ryan, and Ober, five years of Lewis and Buxton, and six years of Correa and Julien. That's nine all-star-caliber players who are in town through 2027. Not to mention Jenkins, Lee, Wallner, Rodriguez, and Varland are/will be on global top-100 prospects. If you think trading Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler for a top-20 prospect and three packing peanuts is going to drastically improve the future outlook of the Twins to the point where it's worth giving up on a year where the Twins are first in the division, you are similarly stupid. You can bitch and moan about the prospects they lost in the last 12 months due to trades, but you can't ignore the fact that the Twins have three co-aces in the rotation and two in the bullpen, three top-2 selections of which two are all stars, and an on-base machine signed for the foreseeable future.

The Twins have a top-3 rotation and top-3 bullpen in terms of WAR. They had the 3rd easiest schedule in baseball entering the second half, and they currently sit 2.5 games up on a bad Cleveland ball club that may be trying to shop their ace and shortstop. Postseason teams with an elite rotation and bullpen have been really dangerous in the past decade (see: every team that has made the AL/NL Championship Series).  You win in the postseason by hitting home runs and pitching well. This Twins team does those things exceptionally well. They also have hit good pitching well this year; they have just struggled to put up crooked numbers against poor pitching like they did in 2019. Don't be too surprised when the Twins start rolling against weaker competition in the second half. I would like to have an all-star take the mound every fifth day to ensure that they do so.

 

[nicksaviking]

Just a thought, but Sonny Gray may be the exact type of free agent pitcher the Twins could and would sign. They won't do long term contracts, and they'll never get the Verlander/Scherzer/Kershaw type of grey beards who do sign short deals, but Gray seems similar to the Charlie Morton/Chris Bassitt type and it seems like the Twins have been interested in those guys in the past. With a bunch of younger and more electric free agents in his class, this may be the rare situation where the Twins could offer their short 2-3 year, bigger money up front type deal during their exclusive negotiating period and the pitcher might actually listen.

Another thought is that Sonny Gray perhaps dropped that retirement nugget hoping the Twins will consider the possibility of no QO compensation. The hint about retirement could have been for the sole purpose of enticing them to trade him now.

[Dr Katz]

To make such foolish statements in the middle of the season shows Gray is not a team builder and should be traded. 

[Danchat]

They should listen to all offers on Gray, but they should see if anyone tries to blow them out of the water. If not, hold on to him... but if they anticipate Gray will not be a Twin in 2024, then I think it'd be prudent to get something for him instead of only getting the extra draft pick from the QO.

Of course, with the team in contention and the front office needing to prevent a third losing season in a row I don't anticipate they will seriously consider moving him.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

That looks like a chip and a chair to me.

Personally I'm somewhere in between the extremes on what to do at the deadline.  I don't believe our post-season chances are very good and changing that outlook would be super-expensive, so any "buy" actions should be for expiring contracts and only if it can be accomplished with assets like rule-5 eligible prospects who may not be protected this year anyway.  It might not be possible to swing any trades like that, and probably I'm fine with such outcome.

But conversely I do think our chances of reaching the post-season are good, and in that situation I do not want to enter Game 1 with a crippled roster; I think that's an insult to paying fans in attendance. 

So, no to trading away Gray at pretty much any conceivable price.  Perhaps we can interest another team in 25-year old prospect Seth Gray?

All this assumes no ridiculous offers, in either direction and about any player.  Of course I'd listen to those.

Chip and a chair doesn't quite describe my view.  Just, play the hand you're dealt.  The AL Central determines my view for 2023.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Yes we swept Oakland but each of the games looked like it was in jeopardy and the sweep might have gone the other way.  It's maddening not to put away an opponent of that caliber when you can. 

It's like watching the box scores for Dallas Keuchel in his time with St Paul so far - yes the ERA is shiny, but he's allowing runners on base (or putting them there, WHIP 1.4) and just generally not putting away these AAA hitters like you would hope for someone who may turn out to be needed.

The results in both cases are what you want, but the forecast of how it would go against the next level of competition isn't as rosy.  I think that's where the glass half full / glass half empty discussion is coming from. 

We swept Oakland, yay, three wins closer to the post-season, against teams who won't be Oakland.

I get the need for optimism with this team, but I agree, if we're going to hold up a 6-3 stretch as evidence that this team is turning it on, or performing the way we'd expect them to, I think it's fair to ask how often we expect to get two historically awful teams for 2/3 of every 9 game stretch. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Personally I'm somewhere in between the extremes on what to do at the deadline.  I don't believe our post-seasons chances are very good and changing that outlook would be super-expensive, so any "buy" actions should be for expiring contracts and only if it can be accomplished with assets like rule-5 eligible prospects who may not be protected this year anyway.  It might not be possible to swing any trades like that, and probably I'm fine with such outcome.

But conversely I do think our chances of reaching the post-season are good, and in that situation I do not want to enter Game 1 with a crippled roster; I think that's an insult to paying fans in attendance. 

So, no to trading away Gray at pretty much any conceivable price.  Perhaps we can interest another team in 25-year old prospect Seth Gray?

Chip and a chair doesn't quite describe my view.  Just, play the hand you're dealt.  The AL Central determines my view for 2023.

I too am between the 2 extremes. I don't think they get much in return for the guys they could "sell," and don't think it's worth giving up what it'd cost to truly "buy." Their playoff hopes rest on Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Polanco, and Kirilloff being healthy and productive, and the pitching maintaining some semblance of their current production. That's too big of an ask for me to think they have a great chance, but not too outlandish to think they can't steal a series or 2. This team is really frustrating that way. At least they play a bunch of terrible teams in the 2nd half so there should be some fun games mixed in.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Personally I'm somewhere in between the extremes on what to do at the deadline.  I don't believe our post-season chances are very good and changing that outlook would be super-expensive, so any "buy" actions should be for expiring contracts and only if it can be accomplished with assets like rule-5 eligible prospects who may not be protected this year anyway.  It might not be possible to swing any trades like that, and probably I'm fine with such outcome.

But conversely I do think our chances of reaching the post-season are good, and in that situation I do not want to enter Game 1 with a crippled roster; I think that's an insult to paying fans in attendance. 

So, no to trading away Gray at pretty much any conceivable price.  Perhaps we can interest another team in 25-year old prospect Seth Gray?

All this assumes no ridiculous offers, in either direction and about any player.  Of course I'd listen to those.

Chip and a chair doesn't quite describe my view.  Just, play the hand you're dealt.  The AL Central determines my view for 2023.

I'd argue that a starting OF of Gallo, Taylor, Kepler is a crippled roster....is there any WS winning team with that bad an OF in recent years?

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd argue that a starting OF of Gallo, Taylor, Kepler is a crippled roster....is there any WS winning team with that bad an OF in recent years?

I think you know what I meant by "crippled".  Crippled by overt action in July.  Perhaps "consciously depleted from current levels" would be more accurate?  Yes, the OF is not what the FO thought they were drawing up in the winter.  In any case, I don't see this as a WS winning team either, and fixing that on the fly is too expensive.  I just want to field a roster in the post-season (if we have one) that is representative of what got them there.

It's kind of like when minor leagues have a playoff between the first-half champion and the second-half champ, except the first-half team no longer even faintly resembles what got them there.  I'd like that our presence in the post-season not be described as bush league.

[Daniel Blegen]

Absurd

[chinmusic]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd listen to offers. If you can get a guy in AA that is a 45+or better, I likely make the trade. This is driven by my belief that they have three starters as good as him, for the playoffs, and that this FO refuses to take a chance on fixing the hitting issues, meaning I think they have little to no chance in the playoffs.

Did you consider playoff experience?

Lopez, Ober and Ryan have a combined total of 5 innings. (all Lopez, of course)

Gray has 21 innings, and 2 of 3 appearances were decent.

Just for fun, I checked Maeda. After all, he pitched for the Dodgers.  37 innings!

One other thing, there are no guarantees. Orioles, Braves, Rays, Dodgers. They can't all win the WS.  Might be none of them.

If the Twins look completely hopeless at the trade deadline, sure, then consider offers for Gray.

Honestly, I just want the Twins to break the post season curse. They have a better chance with Sonny Gray in their arsenal.

 

 

 

[Peter]

When will our draft picks be available? Sonny has been crap-hasn’t win since April/gives up to many runs😡 Sonny needs to get it together. Started off great and now sucks. Why not bring up Dallas K or SRR instead?