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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Nailed it!!!
  2. stringer bell
    Even though he was disappointing last year, I think Caratini isn’t as terrible as most are saying. He’s hit decently in the past and his defense is okay, with the exception of slowing the running game. Perhaps the overuse when Jeffers went down wore him down and he lost his edge. The Twins need somebody to catch a majority of games who can limit the running game. I like Lackey’s game and since he is both a college guy and a Top Five draft pick, he should be ready comparatively quick. Maybe some time in ‘27.
  3. stringer bell
    Defensive Runs Saved has Arraez at -4. and Statcast has his speed at 33rd percentile and arm strength at 25th percentile and somehow with 97th percentile range, I assume using the OAA in some way to measure that. Arraez was kept away from second base by three different teams. I just have a hard time believing that he will be a plus fielder at second base going forward with his limited tools. One thing that has changed since leaving Minnesota is that Arraez seldom takes a walk. In his last three years, his BB% has been 3.6, 5.0 and 5.2. He continues to be a net negative on the bases, so the only area where he is certain to be an asset is when he's hitting. With minimal power, he would have to get on a lot. I've called Arraez a unicorn for a long time. He will hit .300, almost never strike out and get plenty of hits. I'm pretty skeptical that he will help in the field or on the bases, so in essence he is a specialist. Can the Twins afford that skill set at what I assume would be a premium price? Finally, Arraez has been surprisingly durable. I have thought he would be plagued by injuries, but he's not been disabled much. Will that continue into his 30s?
  4. stringer bell
    If Austin Martin is on the roster, I would hope that he is the platoon alternative for two guys and that he doesn’t replace either when the opposition changes handedness on the mound. Figuring about 45 lefty starts, Martin could/should replace Rodriguez and Jenkins about 12-13 times each. Martin is IMHO both faster and a better outfielder than Roden and is the slightly better alternative vs. LH pitching. If everyone is healthy, that is six OF, but given injury histories, one of the six on the IL most of the time is probable. One of the OFs probably is the DH as well and maybe one of them (Keaschall or Roden) plays some first base. I really want Jenkins and Rodriguez to get full-.time plate appearances.
  5. stringer bell
    For the record, both Morejon and David Bednar received QOs, probably lowering their cost to sign, but costing draft picks and/or international money.
  6. stringer bell
    RIP Jerry Koosman, an effective pitcher for a lot of years. Born in Appleton (MN), he won 20 for the Twins in 1979 (7.2 WAR) and had over 200 career wins with more than 2000 strikeouts, borderline HOF numbers.
  7. stringer bell
    Culpepper is the Opening Day shortstop and there is really no alternative. Lee is a major league hitter, but he doesn't have the range to be a major league shortstop. Kreidler isn't a good enough hitter. Can they find an infielder who could be a Culpepper replacement for injury or ineffectiveness? Otherwise, it is bring back Kreidler or maybe Ross. Jenkins figures to get a starting shot this spring, but if he's terrible in ST, they could send him back to St. Paul for a month or so. Rodriguez is out of options and probably would get the next shot to be a regular. Perhaps both make the team out of ST and flank Buxton, but more likely one is in left and one is in center with Buxton on the IL or the DH. There are legitimate options if either Rodriguez or Jenkins are not up to being regulars and i think that is prudent. Roden. Martin, Mendez and Gonzalez are all on the 40-man roster.
  8. stringer bell
    Randy Flores (briefly a Twin in 2010) was named General Manager of the Astros.
  9. stringer bell
    I wish them all well. Banda is the only guy I can see the Twins trying to reacquire. Congratulations to Gray for hitting two grand slams and to Sabato for making it to the big leagues.
  10. stringer bell
    He's young to be a free agent, so it would figure he is not yet on the downside of his career. I would think that he will be used as a closer with whatever team he signs with. Bringing in a new "best" relief pitcher moves everyone down one slotand really helps the entire 'pen. Color me skeptical that the Twins can get this move done.
  11. stringer bell
    Pretty much agree with this take. Rortvedt's "best" season will be three years in the rear view mirror in 2027, and those numbers are at best acceptable for a catcher. I think either he or Jackson would be a decent backup option to be in St. Paul, except for the out-of-options situation. Before the 2026 season, someone did an article on Alex Jackson which highlighted both his defense and a power surge while playing for the Orioles. I have been intrigued since, but apparently Shelton wasn't won over. I do consider both Jackson and Rortvedt about the same, but Jackson would seem to be the superior option if limiting opponents' running game is a top priority. I think Lackey might be closer to the big leagues, but wouldn't want to assume he's on the doorstep until he gets some time in Wichita or St. Paul. It is nice to dream about things going better than expected.
  12. stringer bell
    Given the injury histories of Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins and Buxton, I think there will be a place for Martin on the Twins' roster as presently constructed. I'd rather see Martin in the lineup and playing the outfield than Rosario or Gonzalez. He's had a few months of good play (August, September '25 and April '26) so I think a bit run should be given and he's only at about 800 lifetime plate appearances. The low bat speed, exit velocity and hard-hit rate are red flags and he has made more than his share of head scratching mental errors, but with an option remaining, a low salary and the lack of better RH hitting options, I think he should be rostered and probably has at least a partial last chance in 2027.
  13. stringer bell
    Martin's statcast profile has quite a bit of red in it, but also way too much subpar stuff. He doesn't hit the ball hard, has a low swing speed and exit velocity. Only Luis Arraez can get away with that and be an above-average hitter. He walks a lot, doesn't chase and has become a good defensive corner outfielder. I don't think the Twins have mishandled him and this season he had a chance to establish himself as an everyday player and he didn't seize the opportunity.
  14. stringer bell
    I had visions of Austin Martin becoming the Twins' version of Steven Kwan--good OBP, plus base running and good defense--and despite a really good April, he just wasn't up to it. He has definitely improved as a defender, but he would only be categorized as "above average". He has good, but not elite, speed and that hasn't translated to being an asset on the base paths. The OBP heavy hitting isn't quite average and he really struggled against right handed pitching. Maybe he can add to his game. As mentioned, he has improved dramatically on defense. Maybe he can improve on the bases. He was only successful on 60% of his steal attempts. Royce Lewis has a lower sprint speed, but was successful on 16 of 17 attempts, so he should be fast enough to get over the acceptable 75% success rate. Much has been made of trying to change his swing while he was in the minors. Maybe the Twins were right, they tried to get more power from his swing and if would have average power instead of being in the bottom 20% in slugging, the bar would be lower for him to contribute with the existing defense and base running. Martin has an option remaining which gives him more value to the Twins and anyone who might want to acquire him. The player who was on the team for the entire year needs to be better to secure a spot on the Twins team.
  15. stringer bell
    If Bo Naylor didn’t get tohit against the Twins, his stats would be Kreidler-like.
  16. stringer bell
    As per usual, @Riverbrian is making a good case and presenting it well. I agree that the Twins are pretty much stuck with Caratini and while I'm not obsessed with the second catcher, I would hope the GM can find the right guy to pair with him to maximize both Caratini and whoever his alternate/backup is. Caratini has twice exceeded the 72 games he caught last year and he will play 2027 as a 33-34 year old, so it would seem that a near 50-50 job sharing would be in order. Defensively, Vic is decent blocking and framing and did a good job with ABS challenges. He is a liability against the running game with a below average arm and slow pop time. As a hitter, Caratini has been slightly better against right handed pitching and was significantly better against righties in 2026, so bringing in a right handed hitting catcher would be a sound strategy. So, Caratini's alternate should be defense-first with running game stopping capability and probably hit right handed. With health, the alternate catcher should be starting more than 60 games, probably closer to 70 or 75. Can that guy be found for a one-year committment and low salary? Maybe it is Alex Jackson, who has an excellent pop time and strong arm (and low arbitration number) or maybe it's somebody else making near major league minimum. I agree that the Twins shouldn't be breaking the bank at catcher.
  17. stringer bell
    At a glance, Alex Jackson and Ben Rortvedt are pretty similar hitters. Jackson is 30, has 513 PAs and a 56 OPS+, Rortvedt is 29, has 661 PAs and a 54 OPS+. There are reasons to like their defense, but not enough to overrule their lack of hitting. IMHO, either would be fine as a #3 catcher, but not having options would mean going through DFAs and the possibility of being claimed. What is needed is a strong defensive catcher who can limit the running game who could start at least 35% of the time.
  18. stringer bell
    Many of these moves point out the importance of having options and not foolishly wasting them. While it may not have mattered, the Twins used on option on SWR in September in one of his two good seasons so that they could look at someone starting a meaningless game long after they had been eliminated. Starting the clock early on Henriquez had him out of options at a young age. I remember he was the first Twin who was born in the 2000s. A similar case for Headrick, although as a college pitcher he was older. Rodon and Martin continue to have options, which make them more valuable (and tradeable). Wallner, Kreidler and Gray are now out of options, making them considerably less valuable.
  19. stringer bell
    My main complaint about Twins' management is failure to develop talent into good players. Since they won over 100 games in 2019, they haven't developed a single position player into an every day player who is among the best at their position. They've had multiple highly regarded minor leaguers the payoff has been remarkedly small. The team debuted three of their top position players last season--Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and Emmanuel Rodriguez--and two top arms--Kendrys Rojas and Connor Preliepp--so it is fair to say that another generation of prospects is now in play. For this poll, I want to define "next All-Star". Repeat All-Stars (Buxton, Ryan, Lopez) don't count. If a player has been an All-Star for another team and makes it as a Twin, they count (Hoffman, Josh Bell). Please specify if you think the next All-Star isn't currently on the roster--will he be acquired in a trade, currently in the minors but not on the roster. If you think the player is on the roster, please name him.
  20. stringer bell
    Rortvedt doesn’t have options either and bith have sat on the bench enough to be arbitration eligible.
  21. stringer bell
    Ultimately, the players have to perform. It could be that they were improperly used, but they have to find a way to produce and help the club win. I've always felt that managers and coaches get too much credit and too much blame for the way a team performs.
  22. stringer bell
    Caratini was a solid #2 catcher for his time with the Astros, not good enough to get a #1 job, but good enough to get a nice two-year contract. This year, he struggled in that role, while he was very good when he was the primary guy (while Jeffers was on the IL). I guess it is overanalysis to attribute his success or lack of it to his amount of playing time, but it seems counterintuitive for a career #2 receiver. Given his 2026 results, it would seem to be wise to have someone to share the job or be the primary guy along with Caratini (I doubt very much they will trade or release him). I can't see Ben Rortvedt as that guy, but teams with poor-hitting catching tandems seem to do better than defensively limited ones.
  23. stringer bell
    Tristan Gray played a lot of shortstop after Lee was moved to third. That particular player was not "the guy to his left was a better shortstop". Forgot Keaschall? BTW, I think Lee's meh arm strength is lessened precisely because he gets rid of the ball in a hurry. It worked okay at short, it works even better at third. Accuracy is the other part of arm strength that gets shorted when looking at metrics. Lee is a more accurate thrower than Lewis, for example.
  24. stringer bell
    Looking at Rortvedt's statcast profile, it would appear he is a good defensive catcher, with limiting the running game as his weakest component, but still better than Caratini. Most of that information is from his season in Tampa two years ago. Not a good hitter, which is why he only has one seasons worth of at-bats at age 29.
  25. stringer bell
    If Larnach is non-tendered or traded, I think Roden slots in his role, which would be DH, fourth OF. Also, I don't think it is totally far-fetched to see him try to get playing time at first base, particularly if Lewis is traded or non-tendered and a replacement isn't added. If one of Jenkins or Rodriguez flames out, Roden would be the logical candidate to get that playing time. In the off-season speculation and analysis, I've been torn on Roden. He just doesn't have great tools--power, speed, arm--but his batting metrics are promising. Brooks Lee thrived last year with less than elite tools, but speed and athleticism wins the day, just look at the two World Series teams.
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