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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. The difference between a great Silva game and this game for Ober is that the soft contact Silva would allow would be ground balls. Ober had a variety of pop flies and cans of corn to the outfield.
  2. Twins are now tied for third place in the rough and tumble AL Central. By the way, the Central isn't the worst division in MLB, the AL West has a considerably lower winning percentage.
  3. When Jeffers hit his homer, he looked like a jumbo Harmon. The same glance at the ball with a couple of walking steps towards first base.
  4. Exciting to do the double steal, but it would have been really bad for Buck to be out and Jeffers not get a chance to blast one upstairs.
  5. He'll be a pretty good backup if/when Jeffers is traded or one of the catchers is injured.
  6. Most everyone that has paid attention to the Minnesota Twins in the 2020s sees a team that is weak defensively. I agree with that assessment and really don't have all the answers to make the Twins a good defensive team. I do want to quantify just how bad they are in the field and compare it with the rest of MLB. Using information that is free online, I have reviewed several metrics. My principal sources are The Fielding Bible and Fangraphs, with Fangraphs incorporating data from Statcast. Here are some team rankings; the Twins are 28th in Defensive Runs Saved with -8 in their first 41 games this year. They rank 15th in Fielding Run Value and 21st in Outs Above Average (-3). While these metrics don't line up perfectly, players rated very good to elite usually are pretty much the same and there is agreement on who the very best defensive teams are (Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers). So it is with individuals. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Bobby Witt Jr. and Luis Arraez stand out no matter which metric is used. Among the Twins, the three players who have positive ratings across the board are Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. Byron Buxton is rated as neutral except for a +2 Outs Above Average. It is also clear who the Twins worst defenders at their positions are--Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner are in the lowest quartile for their positions. The Fielding Bible breaks out Defensive Runs Saved by position and the Twins -8 Defensive Runs Saved is basically covered by shortstop and right field, shortstop is -5 and right field is -7. An aside, Dan Hayes is reporting that Lee's DRS has stabilized. I believe it has actually gone down from -5 to -4. While the Twins rate quite a ways down in The Fielding Bible's DRS list, they are only a couple of runs from moving up four or five spots. The #23 Rockies are five runs better and four other teams are within two runs of the Twins -8 mark. Eight runs in 41 games is about a run surrendered a week (actually five games). The Twins don't have a lot of good defenders beside the three or four listed as above average. Both catchers, Lewis and Keaschall are below average, but close to neutral. It would seem that removing one of the guys who is weighing the team ranking down. Having a guy with +2 DRS in right field over the first 41 games would flip the Twins to positive territory. Overall, it wouldn't take much to put the Twins in the middle of defenses in the major leagues. It would be nice if the Twins had a potential Gold Glover at each position, but that isn't the case for any team. Removing bad fielders should be a priority, especially if there is a good fielder to replace them. (Clemens over Bell?) I don't think the Twins are hopeless on defense or that they don't care, but they've been willing to sacrifice defense for offense at many positions. Edit to add: One day later, the Twins defensive stats improved in The Fielding Bible to -5 composite Defensive Runs Saved good for 24th place in MLB.
  7. What kind of numbers can we project from Culpepper's performance at St. Paul? To me, if he's only hitting .250 with about an .800 OPS, he would likely be well below average against big league pitching. Projecting his defense might be a bit more reason for optimism. I think this piece is saying that the building blocks are there for a good major league player, but he's still developing. That's great, but I don't think he truly help the 2026 Twins at the level he is performing. The bigger picture is that the Twins have run out three guys routinely in the infield and each has disappointed in some aspect. Lewis has not hit and not improved defensively, Keaschall has regressed and isn't getting extra base hits and is still below average defensively and Lee has hit well, but has shown he lacks the tools be an average defensive shortstop. Since KC would not be a real improvement this year, this would seem to be "prove it" time for the three major league regulars, with Lewis having the shortest runway and Keaschall the longest.
  8. The weakest hitter should hit ninth and arguably that has been Lewis for most of the time he's been on the active roster this year. My problem is that Buxton is hitting first when his skill set would be better used in the 2 or 3 spot in the lineup. It does seem that Buck is most comfortable hitting first, but that is going to mean fewer guys on base when he hits. .
  9. The Wild need to play three great games to get to the Western Finals. The Avs are really good and it will take a complete team effort to win each game. In my rating system, the Wild needed to beat two of the top six teams to get to the Western Finals, probably the toughest path of all the teams.
  10. I believe you are referring to Gomez, not Garcia. Gomez is 26 and was with the Rays, Garcia is 39 and was acquired from the Mets.
  11. You never know where your bullpen ace will come from. Recently, the Twins have had success converting starters (Jhoan Duran, Griffen Jax, Louis Varland) but sometimes closers come off the discard pile like Lism Hendriks. Gus Varland has been DFAd numerous times and he’s closing games for the Nationals. If the Twins try to have a youngish guy like Gomez be a closer or a guy relied on in high leverage, good for them. There’s a small chance it will work and maybe the club has a good arm for multiple years. Signing guys in their mid to upper 30s to one yesr deals, the upside is hard to see
  12. Bell has a pretty long history of hitting wherever he plays. He's hit a large snag for sure, but in his ten-year history he's only been below average once, and that was the quirky COVID season. He's been part of a deadline trade several times and I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved then
  13. I don't think it is worth it to have the last guy on the bench be a specialist. Essentially, that is Outman at this point. He's a pinch runner and defensive replacement, much as Keirsey Jr. was last year. Having someone who could be a semi-successful pinch hitter or platoon option in the outfield makes much more sense.
  14. Caratini hasn't started a game at first base with a right hander starting for the opposition IIRC. Victor is in a bad slump right now and Bell has been fighting it as well. Right now, Clemens is a better bet than either of those two (and Wallner) against right handed pitching. I doubt that will continue, but that is where we are right now. What I know for sure is that there will be more ups and downs for almost all of the players. The best hitter on the team is a great example of that. Buxton has gone through stretches where he looks close to helpless at the plate, but right now he's mashing a lot of pitches.
  15. The way I have it figured, Ober on Tuesday, SWR on Wednesday and Zebby on Thursday. They could throw in a bullpen game on Thursday and delay or even skip Prielipp's turn. It sounds like the club wants to protect Prielipp and given his injury history, that makes sense. Even with the heavy work load on Friday, Matthews should be good to go by Thursday (five days rest) and as I mentioned upthread, he has pitched considerably better his last few times out, with a return of good velocity..
  16. I believe the Saints won five of six from Las Vegas, which was in first place in the PCL. This is interesting because their two top prospects are on the Injured List and the team is playing its best baseball. It appears that Arcia must have gotten injured last night. Too bad because he’s been hitting very well recently.
  17. Clemens’ offensive numbers are substandard, but he’s a plus on the bases and according to The Fielding Bible, Kody is the #1 defender at first base in Defensive Runs Saved. (+4). Yeah, his bat isn’t what you want at first, but he’s has value and is the best option on the roster against right handed pitching.
  18. I think the move will be to recall Zebby, if they can get him in the rotation on regular rest. He’s pitched much better of late and went 8 innings in Vegas on Friday.
  19. What active Minnesota Twin has the highest lifetime average? Hint: he has less than a thousand big league plate appearances.
  20. Answering my own query and to me it is quite a shocker--Funderburk was optioned to St. Paul with Rojas called up. It is left hander for left hander and Fundy is one of few who have options in the BP, but IMHO he has been the best bullpen arm on the team (damning with faint praise).
  21. The most improbable win of the year last night. Counting on the Twins bullpen to keep the pesky Guards from scoring when they only needed one run seemed like an impossible ask. A lot of fine defensive plays when it mattered were vital. I wonder what the move will be to make room for Rojas. It seems certain that he'll be called on to pitch multiple innings today.
  22. What is Lee's ceiling as a hitter? If he can be an immune to platoon splits 110 OPS+ hitter, he's a big leaguer and probably a starter. We saw that player last year for one month and we've seen him for about another month this year. He's 25 and seems to be taking more good at-bats as the season wears on. Defensively, the tools are mediocre. Not a great arm and poor range. He is pretty sure handed and the one thing I've seen is a really quick release. Also, Lee is pretty accurate with his throwing when not trying to make a Superman play. Since Lee has hit better, he seems to have settled down in the field, playing much more fundamentally sound. Second vs. third--it has been my assumption that third base is more of a reactive position. Speed/range is not as important as first step reaction and quickness. I think Lee's lack of range and foot speed would show up more at second base, so I think eventually he is seen as primarily a third baseman. If Lee has the arm to perform marginally at shortstop, he has enough arm for third base, although a stronger arm would be preferred.
  23. It's a tie game in the eighth, but given the history between the two teams and the Twins' bullpen, it feels like the Twins are down by five runs.
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