Firing Rocco Baldelli is Moving Deck Chairs on Twins Titanic, and the Pohlads Sank the Lifeboats

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Twins announced on Monday that manager Rocco Baldelli won’t be back for the 2026 season, despite being under contract next season. While a large portion of the fanbase has been clamoring for this for a while, the move doesn’t address the larger issues with the organization—ownership and the front office—that are getting in the way of winning.

Pohlads Remain Put, See Themselves as The Solution
“We feel we’re the right people to lead this organization,” Joe Pohlad told The Athletic after pulling the Twins off the market late in this seasson. He didn't appear to know or care that no one else agreed.

Before the 2025 season, not only did the Pohlad family express confidence in Derek Falvey, but they promoted him to oversee both the on-field and off-field aspects of the team. Now, they're widely expected to cut payroll—perhaps significantly—heading into 2026, because they can’t connect the dots between having a consistently below-average payroll and a below-average win-loss record.

In any given season, teams who invest heavily in the roster are significantly more likely to make the playoffs. The Twins, famously, have not been investing heavily. This is all but certain to get worse, before it gets better. After all, as Joe Pohlad told the Star Tribune: “The goal is not to compete. The goal is to win a World Series. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t come with some pain in the short term. Building a true winner comes with some challenge. Right?”

I can’t think of any other interpretation of short-term pain than continuing to tear the team down to the studs this offseason.

“I’m trying to get my head out of all the negativity,” Pohlad said. “But I am overwhelmingly confident about Twins baseball. I’m confident because we have got all the right [pieces] … And we have the resources that we’re ready to invest when needed.”

The most charitable assessment of these quotes is that, now that the organization is freed from their crippling debt, they can spend again. Do you believe that, though? And even if you do, is the current front office capable of spending the money in the right places?

The Front Office Has Missed More Than They've Hit — In All Areas
A mid-market team needs to win on the margins to remain successful: draft picks that hit, winning trades, uncovering undervalued assets, and hiring the right coaching and development staff to help young players put it all together. This front office has not consistently won in any of these areas, which has led to poor results. Rocco Baldelli might have been in a position to do more to mitigate some of these misses, but he was not ultimately to blame for any of them; they fall under the purview of his (ex-)bosses.

Top Draft Picks
Falvey has clearly whiffed on a number of first-round picks, and it’s too early to tell on a few more. Keoni Cavaco, Aaron Sabato, and Noah Miller all failed to launch. Brooks Lee has not yet lived up to his perceived potential, and even Chase Petty (whom the Twins flipped for Sonny Gray) has struggled mightily since reaching Triple-A.

Player Development
Falvey was hired to develop a consistent pitching pipeline, the sort that had helped the Cleveland Guardians churn out ace after ace. His strategy? Through the draft, they targeted tall pitchers from small schools with middling velocity in the middle and late rounds. These were pitchers whom other teams overlooked, and the Twins were confident they could add velocity and create frontline starters of their own, while spending their high picks on polished hitters.

For a minute, it seemed to work. Guys like Bailey Ober (12th round), Louis Varland (15th round), Zebby Matthews (8th round), David Festa (13th round), and Andrew Morris (4th round) have all been a part of this pitching pipeline. Of this group, however, only Ober has found consistent success, and even that is in question, based on his performance this season. On the hitting side, top prospects like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, and Trevor Larnach have all struggled to reach even their 50th-percentile outcomes.

Trades
Speaking of winning trades, Falvey has executed the following failed trades:

• Sending Cade Povich and Yennier Canó for Jorge López
• Trading Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar for Tyler Mahle
• Selling Trevor Megill for cash
• Selling Danny Coulombe for cash
• Swapping LaMonte Wade for Shawn Anderson

In all of these examples, Falvey gave away significant surplus value, and that makes it tough to be competitive. Does this rest on the shoulders of the professional scouts—you know, the ones who were just fired? Maybe there is a problem with assessing talent from other teams. To be clear, Falvey did trade the husk of Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan and Petty for Gray, so it’s not all bad. He has also had plenty of neutral-ish trades.

Signings
Falvey has executed the three largest free-agent signings in team history, in Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa (twice!). Neither accomplished what Falvey hoped they would, though, and he proved incapable of building a complete roster around them. There have been copious other signings that were questionable at the time, and downright laughable in hindsight. From Matt Shoemaker to Joey Gallo, he invested limited resources in players nearly every season, and those players failed to deliver on the (rightfully) modest expectations that came with them.

An Inability to Adapt In Real-Time
Overall, the front office has shown limited ability to adapt to a changing landscape. When taking over from Terry Ryan, Falvey and company quickly corrected the analytics deficit in the organization, accurately assessing that even with a mid-market payroll, a team can invest heavily in understanding undervalued skills and the players who possess them. However, nine years later, they have once again fallen behind the league. In a recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron Gleeman discussed the fact that the rest of the league has caught up as the Twins have failed to continue to expand their analytics staff. Teams like the Yankees and the Dodgers are massively outspending the Twins in this area of the business, at this point, but doing it with payrolls that allow them to buy all the players they need to suit their models, too.

This inability also shows up in the types of lineups the Twins have assembled: plodding, station-to-station runners with questionable defensive chops. You know, sluggers who pop 30 homers year in and year out—except, the hitters haven’t done that, either. Aside from Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner, no member of the 2025 Twins hit even 20 bombs. Despite this, it took the deadline fire sale to encourage a different style of play.

So, we have owners who don’t spend appropriately for their market size or with any understanding of a window of contention; who are out of touch with their customers’ expectations; and who are loyal to a front office that has gotten mixed results at best. We have a front office that hasn’t demonstrated a unique ability to hit on draft picks; that doesn’t develop top prospects especially well; doesn’t make one-sided trades consistently; and doesn’t find substantial value in the scratch-and-dent section of the free agent market. With those problems, does it really matter who the manager is?

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[Brandon27]

I think 2026 going be due or die time for Falvey and front office if they have another losing season they will be gone 

[In My La Z boy]

Great rundown of the problems, but don't overlook this. Rocco was the largest problem once the game began. I agree 100% with your vast list of culprits, and that **** rolls downhill, and Rocco is at the bottom of the hill, but his in game intuitive management skills were lacking to be kind. He had a way of usually NOT pushing the right buttons. Step 1. Now we'll see what happens next.

[Reptevia]

The fact that all these prospects were good in the minors but it ends under Rocco ‘s (and his hand-picked staff) says it does matter who the manager is. They have not taken one position player prospect and turned him into MLB quality. Did the FO miss on EVERY pick?  Fire the entire FO. 

[Eris]

One other concern I would add is the unpreparedness of many players to play fundamentally sound baseball when called up to the big leagues. The vaunted Twins way seems to have disappeared when Tom Kelly retired. There are many examples one of which is Austin Martin who when first called up seemed totally incapable of playing a serviceable OF. One of the reasons is the Twins had him playing SS in the minors, a position no one expected him to play in the MLB. 

[AlGoreRythm]

23 minutes ago, Brandon27 said:

I think 2026 going be due or die time for Falvey and front office if they have another losing season they will be gone 

After literally just promoting Falvey to head the business side last year? I doubt it.

Pohlad's stick with bad losing decisions for about 3-5 years after it's apparent they made a mistake lol

[AlGoreRythm]

6 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

The fact that all these prospects were good in the minors but it ends under Rocco ‘s (and his hand-picked staff) says it does matter who the manager is. They have not taken one position player prospect and turned him into MLB quality. Did the FO miss on EVERY pick?  Fire the entire FO. 

If it were a fact, that may prove your point, but not all the prospects were that great in the minors. Certainly not obvious sure things. 

There's also the idea that unless they play at least reasonably well in the minors, they'll never get a call up. 

[Jeff K]

The owners won't fire themselves and apparently Falvey either.  Falvey built this Frankenstein and should be gone.  that does not change the fact that Rocco is a terrible manager.

[Glorybound]

The Pohlads claim they have now lost a half billion dollars on the twins. Hard to believe right and they still own the team. It’s really hard to trust people that lie to you.

[Twinkie in Deutschland]

In my opinion, the Twins will hit rock bottom come next season and then the Pohlads will sell the team but not before firing the entire front office and even the new manager, whom I feel sorry for already. The Cleveland Browns version of the Twins are here for the upcoming 2026 and 27 seasons. Unless the Pohlads sell the team. 

[bunsen82]

So we were a .500 team middle of the road team before the trade sell off. I’m not sure what the Frankenstein team is. We need to rebuild the bullpen, find an above average 1st baseman. I assume Larnach is gone. We will need to see better production from Roden/Gonzalez/Rodriguez in left. 
 

I agree ownership is 66% of the issue, I do think the other third is the hitting philosophy and in game decision making. 

[MikeNC]

The Twins organization has changed fundamentally from what it historically was: Great at producing top hitters, league batting champs.  Now we see batters flailing away and guys who started great going down and not coming back up,  Conversely, they would scrape to find even 2 quality starting pitchers.  Now, SOMEBODY in that organization is developing and improving pitchers, again and again.  Please keep the pitching pipeline.  Get some coaches WHO HAVE ACTUALLY HIT MLB PITCHING to coach the young guys how to succeed.  All the stats in the world CANNOT tell you how to hit a curve ball.

[bean5302]

Falvey is the biggest problem with this organization. It was almost the sole duty of the Pohlad's to recognize some people don't have the skill set to be successful no matter how nice you think they are or how hard they work or what process they put in place. Falvey has failed miserably as a GM president of baseball operations.

[rv78]

The 3 headed monster is to blame. You can't look past any of the 3 without finding mistake after mistake that has led us to where we are today.

1.The Pohlads know they have a mid-market team. Don't tell me they haven't expressed to Falvey that he has a limited amount of money to spend every year. However the decision to right-size the payroll after the 2023 season instead of going all in doesn't fit the narrative that "they are ready to invest when needed". They did the opposite. 

2. Falvey and to some extent Levine failed to deliver from day 1. They said they were going to build a perrenial contender and that has been a complete failure. What was a power house team in 2019 has been turned into a whimper. They/Falvey have done that. From poor drafting, whether it is due to bad talent evaluation or bad coaching, their player development has failed. Add in the countless floor type players he has traded for that will never improve the roster to the same type of Free Agents that were left in the dumpster after other teams gobbled up the better ones is not a winning strategy. It is the opposite.

3. Rocco did a lot of things that just didn't make any sense. His incessant changing of lineups on an almost daily basis only provided inconsistancy in the lineup. His rest schedule for players that should be everyday players was set in stone regardless of who they were playing and where. Sorry, fans come to home games to see the stars on the team play, not their backups. How many games did he throw away on get-away days? A Lot. It was his responsibility to get players to hustle and play fundamentally sound baseball and he failed at both. Who's idea was it that the Twins should be more aggressive and steal more bases? Not his. It was Tinglers. When you only manage from a piece of paper that prevents you from thinking of other ways to win, you are a not a good manager. You are the opposite.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

The fact that all these prospects were good in the minors but it ends under Rocco ‘s (and his hand-picked staff)

Baldelli didn't choose his coaching staff, that's yet another mark against the front office.

[Nashvilletwin]

The original plan put in place after the 2019 juiced ball Bomba season not only didn’t work, but also was so clearly misaligned with how a franchise like the Twins needed to be run in the current version of Major League Baseball.  The Twins struggled to compete in this environment while also (yes, it’s true, sorry) losing hundreds of millions on a cash/operating profit basis over many years.

So a big pivot was necessary.  The included post above about 4 of the top five spending teams making the playoffs (with the Mets just missing out) explains where we are headed; namely the adoption of a salary cap/floor model following an extensive lockout in 2017. The small to mid size owners will go to the absolute mat to see that through.  Why? Because it both gives them a better chance to compete AND increases the value of their franchises.

So the strategy had to change in preparation for this new environment. What are the core planks of that strategy?  Reduced personnel costs until the floor is adopted, emphasis on a deep prospect list and player development. And, btw, the new strategy is much more consistent with what has won us two World Series in the past. 

The first main step in this pivot was the trade deadline.  The second is replacing Rocco. Ideally, the third will be replacing Falvey. Additional steps will likely (and sadly) include trading one or more of our remaining higher priced players for even more young talent.  Also, expect significant coaching and process changes to get better results out of prospect to successful major leaguer transitions.

2026 will likely be rough.  2027 may not see much baseball. But in 2028 the goal is to emerge in the new cap/floor model with a cadre of young, cheap capable major leaguers ready to be augmented by the addition of a couple of more expensive FA veterans (to meet the floor and fill the biggest holes).

And when that strategy unfolds, the Pohlads will sell. 

 

[Trov]

One comment on the payroll stat, is that is a little loaded stat.  The lowest 5 payrolls normally are low because the team has decided to do a full tear down rebuild and going with youth, who will always have a low payroll.  The bottom 15, which the bottom 5 are in, so lets got with 6 through 15 has 4 in the playoffs, for 40% of that 10.  They are in the come up type group or the hanging around group, or mid-markets that are at top of allowed payroll by owners, and they are competing, and a few games here or there made the difference. 

The top payrolls are expected to be competing, but it still takes more than their high payroll guys too.  How often in history have you seen a single big name signing make all the difference for a team? Almost never.  Do they have a big impact sometimes, but they still need a team around them.  

I am not saying going out and having top paid guys will not help a ton, but the state Gleeman shows is a bit loaded, because high paying teams will not spend on trash, and rebuilding teams will have a natural low payroll.  Things shift very quickly for some. 

[TopGunn#22]

Eric, 

Your list of failed trades, successful trades, failed signings, successful signings, really highlighted what an abysmal track record Falvey has.  I would add the spring training release of Jeff Hoffman to the list.  I'm beginning to see why the Pohlad family is losing so much money in their other business ventures as well as their baseball team...they can't seem to recognize sub standard performance and act to correct it.  

They have an over inflated opinion of their own business acumen and as a result, are slow to react to sub-par hires because...they could never make a mistake by hiring the wrong people.  

I think I will agree with the assessment that 2026 is going to be a very bad year for the Twins, leading to a massive financial loss for the Pohlad family.  They will finally see the light and determine a sale of the ballclub is imperative to salvaging the family empire.

It would appear there is far more pain ahead for Twins fans before we can see our desire of new ownership taking place.  The entire FO needs to be replaced.  But there is no chance of this happening until the Pohlad family sells the team.  

[Jkeady12]

This headline is so dead on.

[tony&rodney]

It doesn't seem right to attack people on a personal basis for their lack of talent or knowledge. I'm uncomfortable blasting the Pohlads, Falvey, and especially Baldelli in a personal manner. That is probably true for most people.

However, despite not having all of the data points and information needed to make a complete analysis, the surface evidence is pretty clear. The Pohlads inherited billions of dollars and numerous businesses with nearly unlimited resources. They picked their parents well. Why they want to fail at business is their choice, but an odd life to pursue. I hope they are happy.

Falvey is far out over his skis and pretty pleased to have employment where he can tinker with his ideas, make huge money, and seemingly have zero accountability for the outcomes of his work. He found his match in the Pohlads. 

Eventually this will all end. Until then, I cannot get too upset at the inevitable. I'm a baseball fan and enjoy the game at all levels. While it is true I follow the Twins much too closely, I still retain my ability to sift through the debacle to focus on the positive parts that are left when the incompetence has been sifted.

[TopGunn#22]

Nashvilletwin,

Here are two big name signings that worked out for the teams that made them:

The Dodgers signing Shohei Ohtani. Dodgers won the World Series last year.  The Yankees signing Reggie Jackson in 1977 after Jackson played one season with the Orioles.  Reggie was a key component of the Yankees winning back to back World Series over the Dodgers in 1977 & 1978.  

You could say the Twins signing Jack Morris in 1991 was a big name signing, but that would be a bit of a stretch.  Black Jack was starting to fade as the Ace of the Detroit Tigers.  The Pohlad's signing Morris was more of a bringing in of a hometown boy to get that warm fuzzy feeling for ticket sales.  Andy McPhail ended up catching lightening in a bottle.  

Our frustration as Twins fans was manifested in the winter after winning in 1991 when the Pohlad's wouldn't pay Morris what he deserved after a good season and spectacular game #7.  So the Blue Jays signed Morris and won the World Series in 1992.  

The Blue Jays followed that up by signing another St. Paul native in the off season prior to 1993...Paul Molitor.  Molitor finished 2nd in MVP voting and was World Series MVP in leading the Blue Jays to a back to back World Series Championship accomplishment.

Yes, often times signing big name FA fails spectacularly.  But there are plenty of times it has succeeded spectacularly.  

[David Maro]

In his letter to the fans Falvey said we didn't deliver,so why is he not gone as well. Knowing this organization they will probably put Tingler in Rocco's place. Maybe buy a robot from Tesla to be the manager so you can program it how you want. That way you save money on paying a human manager and have the same control in the dugout.

[The Great Hambino]

Rocco may not have been the biggest problem - he wasn't.  Their issues have been brewing ever since they reduced payroll immediately after paying for Correa and Lopez (creating a lopsided roster that functionally decreased the effectiveness of their payroll), which culminated in The Purge after a season-and-a-half of wishing upon internal improvement while treading water produced predictably mediocre results.

But that doesn't mean he wasn't a problem.  If we expected them to fix problems only in order of importance, then they'd be sitting on their hands doing nothing until the team somehow gets sold/another long-lost grandson emerges that's actually capable of running a sports franchise (kinda like Andy Garcia in The Godfather III).  No one should expect this to solve all their problems, but it was still a problem that needed solving.

 

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The Twins struggled to compete in this environment while also (yes, it’s true, sorry) losing hundreds of millions on a cash/operating profit basis over many years.

I don't believe this for a minute. Where is the money going? They have run payrolls every season far below what the league gives them in revenue sharing. They would have to be the most mismanaged team in professional sports to run up that much debt out of operating budgets. I think it is far more likely that the Twins are taking out loans from Northmarq (their other business) to move money from one set of books to the other.

Quote

Northmarq is a full-service capital markets resource for commercial real estate investors, offering seamless collaboration with top experts in debt, equity, investment sales, loan servicing, and fund management. The company combines industry-leading capabilities with a flexible structure, enabling its national team of experienced professionals to create innovative solutions for clients. Northmarq’s solid foundation and entrepreneurial approach have built a loan servicing portfolio of more than $76 billion and a two-year transaction volume of $52 billion.

 

[mikelink45]

Who can predict the Pohlads - if they lost money like they claim it is a result of their tone-deafness.  They don't know the fans, probably don't want too, but it is the fans who buy tickets, sell ads on TV and Radio, who come to sites like this because we care.  But if I were teaching a class in public relations for a business that relies on enthusiasm and faith in the product the Twins would be the classic - what ever you do, don't follow their model. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think this is an excellent article.  Firing Baldelli was necessary because someone had to go, but the problems start quite a ways upstream in the system.  A GREAT manager might gain a couple of games difference in the final outcome and a TERRIBLE one might lose a couple, but managers in general get way to much credit and way to much blame.  If two teams are equal, the manager might make the difference, but this team has a very long ways to go to even approach equal.  We need baseball players, and not unrealistic expectations on the next guy to don the managers hat.  

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

The fact that all these prospects were good in the minors but it ends under Rocco ‘s (and his hand-picked staff) says it does matter who the manager is. They have not taken one position player prospect and turned him into MLB quality. Did the FO miss on EVERY pick?  Fire the entire FO. 

Agree with your conclusion but not your premise. A lot of the prospects came up and were good or pretty great right away-Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Keaschell, Sano, etc. But then either the pitchers adjusted and they didn't adjust back or the league figured out holes in their swings and confidence cratered. Julien finished 7th in ROY voting and is now worthless. Miranda- expected to be a middle of the order bat, also worthless. Lewis was incredible for his first two injured riddled seasons (2022-2023). Keaschell is the only one who hasn't slowed down yet, which is encouraging. Martin looks to be figuring it out after a slow start.  

Theoretically it should be easier to hit in the minors than the majors, and a lot of guys are great players in AAA but never figure it out at the MLB level. The fact that the Twins have had a lot of guys who had some success at the MLB level but couldn't sustain it suggests some other issue with coaching or development. 

[old nurse]

LaMonte Wade was redundant as an outfielder and not better than Rosario in hitting or fielding. He was not given a chance to unseat Sano at 1b, nor was there a reason at that time to do so. He had 2 okay years, but nothing really to build around  

The Mahle trade as a bad trade. No health issues as the time of the trade, could have been middle of rotation starter. Spencer Steer had one great full season then mediocrity. Would have fit perfectly into the 2025 Twins. It was neither a good nor bad trade, it is hard to say if it has really worked for either side. If you are good enough to see injuries happening within a month or so you can quit blogging and make more of a fortune as a fortune teller

MeGill, it took Milwaukee a year to get him to better pitching. Give them credit for development. 

Basically you have one bad Lopez trade.   Desperation  for winning causes teams to do desperate things. Trading for a journeyman having a career year is one of those things. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't believe this for a minute. Where is the money going? They have run payrolls every season far below what the league gives them in revenue sharing. They would have to be the most mismanaged team in professional sports to run up that much debt out of operating budgets. I think it is far more likely that the Twins are taking out loans from Northmarq (their other business) to move money from one set of books to the other.

 

I know.  I know.  You never do believe it.  But it’s true.  Sorry. But I still think you’re a great person and Twins fan. 

[Sjoski]

Here's the BAD TRADE that was left off your list.  Possibly the worst of them all.

●●●

On July 27, 2018, the Minnesota Twins traded Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros for two minor league prospects: Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino.