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Everything posted by Eris

  1. There aspects of Pagan that are quite good. He has 55 SO in 38 IP (13K/9). This is slightly better than Duran’s 61 SO in 48 IP (11.4K/9). I am not sure all the reasons this doesn’t translate into results. Too many BB and too many balls that are crushed when he is ahead in the count are some of his issues. Poor command and too predictable pitching selection also contribute. It will be interesting to see if Pagan improves with Leon behind the plate. data is from Fangraphs.
  2. A W is W, but I found it undesirable that we needed to use our “A” bullpen to secure a series win against one of the worst teams in the league and then we surrender a very winnable game by marching out the “B” bullpen squad against Toronto.
  3. While the front offices’ failure to address the bullpen this past off season deserves some criticism, in my view the real problem is the number of pitchers on the injured reserve list. It is hard to plan for this many pitchers being out. Have the Twins been unlucky or is their pitching philosophy/approach of adding velocity a key factor in causing these injuries?
  4. After his first few years, Thor has been an enigma. He has ace-like pitches but never paired that with ace like results. Since 2019, his ERA has been around 4 or worse. Part/maybe all of this is attributed to injuries as he has missed 2 full seasons with arm injuries. looking at comparisons on the Twins, it seems that he has produced somewhat similar results as Ober and Winder.
  5. Inspired by your post I looked up Mike Cuellar’s stats. In 1969, the year he won 23 games and the Cy Young, his K/9 was 5.64. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-cuellar/1002853/stats?position=P On our current squad only Delvin Smeltzer and Joe Smith have a K/9 that is less. All data is from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=8,d One item that would add value to the chart is the number of pitches thrown per game. As an example, Joe Ryan averages 86 pitches per game and 5.35 innings pitched per game. Joe Ryan is likely being removed because he is reaching his pitch count limits rather than because he is ineffective. Three true outcomes has brought us here. The effect is a burned out bullpen—as many posters have indicated above. Unless the game changes, a long term solution is expand rosters to add about 4 relief pitchers. The challenge with that is your 17th best pitcher isn’t as good as the 11th best pitcher.
  6. One of the challenges here is that most of the time, the Twins SP rarely pitch more than 5 innings. With one inning relief appearances and a 13 man pitching staff (8 RP), that means RP on average would be on 81 games per season pace. Very few RP can be effective over a long period throwing at this pace. This doesn’t happen because of injuries and rotating relief staff with AAA. Also, some RP will throw occasionally more than 1 inning. The new collective bargaining arrangement limits the number of times optioned per year to 5, which limits the shuffling of RP seen in past years. The current roster construction of 13 pitchers (5 SP and 8 RP) has not adjusted to 5 inning starts and therefore bullpen management will always be a challenge and there will always be a tendency to overuse RP. To have sustainable bullpen usage, which is probably around 50 -60 appearance per year, SP will need to average 6+ innings. This is likely not going to happen as the trend is towards fewer innings pitched per GS. As the bullpen usage is unsustainable given 5 innings per start, creative solutions are going to be needed. This is not just a Twins issue, there is a roster deficiency of RP considering how modern baseball is played.
  7. Are we perhaps giving Wes Johnson credit for the increased success of Twins pitchers, without questioning what role his coaching philosophy has had on the number of Twins pitchers on the DL—current number is 9 (not including minor leaguers on the 40 man roster).
  8. Since The beginning of June, the Twins pitching staff is 28th in MLB in WAR with 0 WAR. The SP are slightly positive and the RP have slightly negative WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=1000&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-06-01&enddate=2022-06-26 For the hitters. Celestino, Kepler, Urshela, Sanchez, and Kirilloff have 0 to negative WAR (for the month of June) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2022&month=1000&season1=2022&ind=0&team=8&rost=1&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=2022-06-01&enddate=2022-06-26 I am not sure about free fall, but the pitching staff as currently constructed, is not playoff caliber. Kepler, Urshela, Sanchez, and Kirilloff have to do better
  9. On Matt Wallner. It is hard for me to get excited about someone who has similar to slightly worse K% in the minors than Brent Rooker. Wallner is striking out about 34% of the time this year. For comparison, Kirilloff fanned about 20% of the time in the minors. I hope Matt Wallner does well, but for now am skeptical.
  10. Arizona plays in a division with 3 teams that have a better record than the Twins (LAD, SD, and SF). It is possible they are a better team than their record indicates. Teams generally don’t win many games giving up 7 runs or scoring less than two runs as the Twins did in the 1st and 3rd games of the series
  11. He would not be the first player to not make it in New York. The scrutiny in NY is intense especially for those not living up to expectations. For other examples see Sonny Gray. I was down on the trade but Sanchez as surpassed my expectations.
  12. We don’t know the vaccination status of the players who currently are on the IL with Covid. Worst case is the players on the IL with Covid are vaccinated and therefore we could be down 8 players against Toronto, plus any others who would get Covid in the interim. Edited to change 7 to 8 as I had forgotten about Ryan.
  13. The Twins have 12 players on the IL. 9 are pitchers, 6 plays are on the 60 day IL. It does create some interesting 40 man roster management issues as each additional player added means one more player that can not be protected. Therefore the Twins will likely add AAAA type pitchers. In addition, there are a number of prospects with significant innings limitations. It would be useful to construct a 40 man roster for next year. as a means of comparison, here are some select IL for a few teams. LAD 9 Houston 4 Toronto 2 Data is from https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/current-player/toronto-blue-jays/
  14. MLB is opening an investigation. I think it is one of these issues that regardless of Donaldson’s original intent, that this has gone on for several years is unacceptable. I look for Donaldson to be suspended. He also did not help himself with his half hearted apology after the game. The first link is an excellent article on this issue. https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/05/22/yankees-josh-donaldson-calling-tim-anderson-jackie-robinson-problematic/amp/ https://wtop.com/mlb/2022/05/leading-off-mlb-investigates-anderson-donaldson-incident-2/
  15. Details are linked below for anyone wanting more info. https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-the-real-reason-mets-failed-to-trade-for-padres-eric-hosmer-before-start-of-2022-season/amp/
  16. The criteria I believe they use is rookie eligibility. Celestino had 62 PA last year so he qualifies by that criteria. Time on the active roster is also considered (which I don’t know how to determine other than to indicate he wasn’t up that long). Rookie Eligibility Definition A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons): • 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. • 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List). A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists.
  17. I don’t understand all of the stats but I read what I understand. Isn’t the eye test the reason Derek Jeter won 5 gold gloves while accumulating -DRS in 4 of those seasons. How do you refute this without statistics. Or that Kent Hrbeck or Doug M deserved gold gloves. https://www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2021/11/20/derek-jeter-carlos-correas-golden-glove-comments-it-doesnt-warrant-a-response I was certainly surprised that Royce Lewis did as well as he did. For several years we have been reading scouting reports (from Keith Law and others) that indicated that Lewis had a hole in his swing and was likely not an MLB shortstop. My reading of this article is that Lewis received too many good pitches to hit, (perhaps because of the above mentioned hole in his swing) and I look forward to Lewis making the adjustments to either hitting or laying off breaking balls just off the zone.
  18. Jomboy media break down on Angel Hernandez. Posting because the 2nd strike call on Kepler was well of the plate.
  19. 1) Where do you follow the Twins from? Saddle Brook, NJ. I was born in New Ulm, MN and last lived in MN in 1995. 2) What's your jobby job? Physical scientist working in the chemical industry, mostly on personal care and preservatives 3) How 'bout hobbies? Photography, hiking, raising butterflies. I released 100 monarchs last year 4) How long have you followed the Twins? Since 1970 5) How many games do you attend a season? 1 or 2. 6) Who is your favorite all-time Twin? It used to be Kirby until.... I will give 4: Rod Carew, Tony Olivia, Jim Kaat, and Joe Mauer 7) Who is your current favorite Twin? Buxton 9) What is the most memorable thing you've seen in person at a Twins game? Jason Kubel hitting a 2 out grand slam against Mariano Rivera at Yankee stadium to give the Twins a 6-3 victory in May 2010. It was also bat day. Yankee Stadium was just rocking until the grand slam. 10) What is your favorite all-time Twins moment? What I watch most often, especially if I am in need of a pick me up is Kirby's catch and home run in game 6. The most emotional moment is Joe Mauer's final game
  20. Talking about lighting a fire under the team. Amazing what happens when every player who has played worse than Royce Lewis realizes that they may be sent down or cut. Do players actually think in these terms
  21. The one stat that is most important is the W-L of the team when Byron Buxton is playing. There have been some variations of this stat on the other Buxton threads. https://calltothepen.com/2021/09/25/importance-byron-buxton-minnesota-twins/amp/
  22. If you were to subtract of the 5 games Buxton mixed following his knee injury the figure would be 23/30, which equates to 124 games for the season.
  23. There was a nice write up in the WSJ comparing him to Rod Carew and Tony Olivia. He has a K% < 10. Think of him as a Luiz Arraez but with speed and a good arm. He was at Oregon State with Larnach when they won the college World Series.
  24. When he was with the Twins, Ervin Santana was said to have a partial tear in his UCL. I went looking for an article and found some described it as a sprained UCL. Not sure of the difference, but Ervin Santana pitch effectively for many years on that elbow with out needing surgery. My point is that a partial tear does not necessarily mean TJ. Also I have linked another article from 2018 that indicates that 25% of the MLB pitchers have TJS at some point in their career. I think most FO see TJ as a risk that has to be mitigated with appropriate depth. https://www.lonestarball.com/platform/amp/2009/3/29/814424/bp-on-hurt-angels-pitchers https://www.billjamesonline.com/tommy_john_surgery_in_major_league_baseball/
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