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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    This topic has come up a lot in recent threads. For position players, Lee, Culpepper, Clemens, Keaschall and Buxton have earned a roster spot for next season. Rodriguez and Jenkins have shown enough potential that they should be on the roster as well. That is it. Everyone else/position is replaceable or needs upgrading.
  2. Eris
    There are a fair number of MLB pitchers who never return to their pre TOS levels. Examples are Matt Harvey, Phil Hughes, Stephan Strasberg, Chris Archer. I think at this point, Festa will be fortunate if he has an MLB career as a relief pitcher.
  3. Eris
    I am struggling with this. For Bell’s 92 RBI effort while mostly at DH he has a 105 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR. For Buxton’s 46 RBI season while playing slightly below average CF he has a wRC+ of 128 and 2.6 fWAR. I think one of the reasons why is that there have been quite a number of occasions when Bell goes up with RISP just looking to dink the ball somewhere (like yesterday’s 2 out RBI). Buxton goes up looking to rip the cover off the ball with every swing. This shows up in the stat line as Buxton being the more valuable hitter but it is RBIs that win games. 92 RBI is 16th in MLB. I just find it difficult to comprehend how being a near 100 RBI player is just slightly better than replacement level.
  4. Eris
    The Twins have had a decade of draft and development futility since Buxton was drafted in 2012. However it looks like there is a high probability that the last 4 first round picks (Lee, Culpepper, Houston, Vahn Lackey) are all going to be contributors. is this luck or have the Twins improved their scouting over the last half decade. The international scouting department also needs improvement.
  5. Eris
    I am not sure this is correct. MLB rules <=130 at bats, <=45 days on active roster, IL doesn’t count (unlike service time calculations). Culpepper 120 PA (from FanGraphs), BR indicates 109 AB, called up Aug 7, IL on Sept 16. This is 41 days https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility
  6. Eris
    I’m not sure that money is as big of a concern as many articles on TD seem to suggest. Between Bell and Caratini they had 14 million in salary.
  7. Eris
    This was Sano’s listed weight. The actual weight was thought to be closer to 275 lbs.
  8. Eris
    My memory of Sano’s specifics are fading, but in the end his challenge became he could not lay off sliders and breaking pitches that were low and away (similar to Lewis) and as such became an easy strike out. Rodriguez should avoid this fate because he has elite pitch recognition. His problem is quite different in that his in zone contact is much less than expected for an elite hitter.
  9. Eris
    I would add to this that it is also really hard to upgrade from average to excellent and the Twins have a lot of average players. Take Trevor Larnach and his 2.2 fWAR. His replacement (Rodriguez or Jenkins) would need to have about 3.5 fWAR to make a meaningful difference. There will be about 15 outfielders with more 3.5 fWAR for this season. If either Rodriguez or Jenkins achieves that they will likely be a top contender for RoY. It does happen but it is very unrealistic to expect a prospect to come up and deliver that level of production.
  10. Eris
    I think the Twins have their direction it is now a matter of how well they can perform. Counting WAR. Can Lee, Culpepper, Keaschall and Clemens maintain current levels of production. If Yes then 10 - 12 WAR. Does Buxton comeback healthy. If yes, 2.5 to 4 WAR. Therefore between LF, 1B part time CF and C they will need about 8 - 10 WAR. Rodriguez looks legit. I could see him playing at RoY levels (3 WAR). As things currently stand I would anticipate Ceratini and Lewis producing 1.5 to 2 WAR each. That gives 17 to 21 WAR. That math is a little fuzzy. People may notice I have not included a DH as I am expecting Keaschall and Buxton to occupy the DH. Which leaves room for Jenkins. In summary, if Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins are all chasing RoY and put up 3 WAR each and if Buxton is healthy and gets to 3 WAR the Twins will be very competitive. The question is it realistic to expect that as outcome. Probably not, Twins fans are seldom that lucky and the previous core from 2023 flamed out faster than a falling meteorite. To be realistically competitive the Twins will need to add about 5 WAR by upgrading 2 positions. As things currently stand 1B and C are the most in need of upgrades. Maybe we really need to resign Jeffers. As pointed out on a different thread there are plenty of free agent 2B.
  11. Eris
    Because Larnach was / is the 3rd or 4th best hitter on the Twins and is approximately in the 75th percentile as an MLB hitter. Players who are above average hitters have value. The problem with Larnach is he should be a full time DH and the Twins also have 5 or 6 players whose best position is DH.
  12. Eris
    It should be quite a few players having played their last games with the Twins. Considering who has earned a spot on the roster for next year. 3B Lee, SS Culpepper, 2B /utility Clemens, OF Buxton, Keaschall, Rodriguez (and possibly Jenkins). That’s it. Six or seven players have earned a roster spot for 13 positions. Everyone else is very replaceable, or leaving via free agency, or hoping they live up to their prospect potential.
  13. Eris
    I don’t really have an issue with the article as the author makes clear in the first paragraph that he is summarizing and discussing that “ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks the Twins’ current core near baseball’s basement.” I also think the assessment of the Twins lacking elite talent is correct. Where I would question the methodology is that elite talent is defined as >5 WAR. I am not sure this is a meaningful metric as the number of 5 fWAR players is quite limited. There were 17 MLB players with >5 fWAR in 2025 and there are about 10 this year. Really a SSS to base conclusions. The other consideration is that even some of the highest ranked MLB prospects struggle to have even an average career. I would look at this a little differently. Very good teams achieve about 25 fWAR from position players and about 20 fWAR from pitching. What do the Twins need to do to get this level. Lacking elite talent a team will need at least 6 or more position players producing at 3 fWAR or better. The Twins will not have a single position player with 3 fWAR for this season.
  14. Eris
    At this point Culpepper with 42 days of service time (Aug 7 to September 16) and 120 plate appearances would retain his rookie eligibility for next year. IL time is excluded. Is this correct? Is there any value for the Twins or Culpepper to retain his rookie status for next season.
  15. Eris
    The challenge is that there have been a lot of first round picks that have flamed out. Gordon, Stewart, Jay, Lewis, Kirilloff, Cavaco. There were others like Wallner and Julian who looked like they were headed for greatness but couldn’t sustain early success. The dearth of current elite talent reflects this.
  16. Eris
    Ober spent time on the IL last season with left hip impingement. I wonder if he is hurt.
  17. Eris
    I think it is far too early to declare that the Twins have an excess of catching. Being a MLB catcher is one of the toughest positions.
  18. Eris
    Buxton has played a full season once in his career and has been above 100 games played 3X. Therefore there is no need to worry about not having playing time for a 4th outfielder. One item the article does not break down is that Keaschall has played a half season in the outfield. Has he improved as the season has progressed. He has made some very good catches in the outfield (so there is hope). He has also had some bad misreads.
  19. Eris
    Ty France has 3.1 fWAR. Mickey Gasper has 1.0 fWAR over 53 games which roughly gets to 3 WAR had he been able to maintain this level of production over the course of a full season. I guess this speaks to the core of the problem when 2 cast offs are outperforming the core contributors. The Twins have an interesting roster construction problem. A roster full of players with 2.0 fWAR contributions is not really a playoff competitive team yet it is very difficult to improve on 2.0 fWAR production and Twins need several players who are going to get 3.0 - 4.0 fWAR production before they go for an average to a very good team. There are currently about 115 MLB hitters with 2.0 fWAR or better (about 1/3 of the hitters). There are about 75 pitchers (1/5 th of the total number of pitchers) who are currently at or above 2.0 fWAR.
  20. Eris
    Hmmm. Looking for comps. There is Austin Hedges who threw out 3 runners in 41 attempts. A 10% CS doesn’t really work for me. Maybe it used to be 5% and this represents a 100% improvement and that’s MacPhail was glowing about. Maybe Diaw can play CF.
  21. Eris
    Lewis isn’t going to be a decent hitter until he stops swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone.
  22. Eris
    Renaissance is misapplied here for the Twins international signees. Jackson Chourio (2024 MLB #2 prospect has put up 10 WAR since being called up) and Jesus Made is the current MLB #1 prospect). In addition, Luis Peña is ranked #21 in MLB for the Brewers. That is a Renaissance.
  23. Eris
    Why should we not expect drafting and player development success as it is one of the main paths to a competitive team. The Twins have had 20 years of failure in the draft including many high picks and international signees. Of the players on this list (not including Jenkins or Rodriguez) only Berrios has not been a disappointment.
  24. Eris
    Because the “real” issues were / have not been addressed. We have too many players whose best position is DH. Looking at the current roster who has earned a roster spot for next season. Lee, Keaschall, Culpepper, and Clemens.
  25. Eris
    There was never an expectation that Brooks Lee would stick at SS. One of the flaws in the Twins player development is not identifying the best MLB position for some of their prospects and making sure they get lots of minor league experience at that position. Players who have played most of their minor league at SS for the Twins include Lee, Martin and Lewis. I don’t think this is a good strategy.
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