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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    One of the few players the Twins have who are above average defensively and Clemens can achieve this at multiple positions.
  2. Eris
    One item that I find encouraging is that after rearranging the defensive chairs, the Twins might have a close to average defense instead of close to the leagues worst. As the team is currently positioned, only Larnach in LF, Gray at SS and possibly Lee at 3B are clearly below average defenders. Kreidler needs to be at SS and Gray needs to go. From the opening day roster, only Larnach, Buxton and Martin and the catchers are playing their expected positions. I don’t remember a Twins team with such a significant rearrangement in positioning.
  3. Eris
    There is a difference between not willing (lack of effort or poor attitude) and not able (puts in effort but the results are just not enough).
  4. Eris
    While I agree that the Varland trade looked bad at the time and looks worse now and also seemed unnecessary as he is not a free agent until 2031. Are the 2026 Twins W/L record worse because of the trade. The Twins staff has 55 holds (5th most, tied with Atlanta and the LA Dodgers). They have 24 saves (12th tied with the Athletics, Toronto has 28 which is 4th). Blown saves the Twins have 11 (14th in MLB, tied with Toronto). Cleveland has 8 BS (4th in MLB). To me these numbers don't jump out as bad and it seems unlikely that the Twins would be in first place in the Central with Varland. All data is from Fangraphs. In terms of the glut of left-handed hitting outfielders that we have been reading about for years on TD, that also needs qualifying. What the Twins do not have is left-handed hitting outfielders who have demonstrated that they can hit MLB pitching and play good defense and are durable. I am not sure if Alan Roden is a solution. He has also been hurt at a time when he most likely would have had an opportunity with the Twins.
  5. Eris
    1 for 12 with RISP and 14 K. Not going to win many games with those stats.
  6. Eris
    Bell leads the team in RBIs despite having a 94 wRC+ and worth 0 WAR for the season.
  7. Eris
    The selloff last year did not address a major issue with lineup construction in that the Twins have multiple players whose best position is DH. There is perhaps some organizational progress in that expectations around defense are changing—maybe. For example, Lee was moved off SS, Bell has <20 games at 1B, Keaschall started 1 game not at 2B. Nonetheless, the Twins have only a few position players who have been league average or better on defense(Jeffers, Clemens at1B, Martin in LF/RF and maybe Buxton and Kreidler). That is a lot of opportunity for improvement.
  8. Eris
    As having a catcher who excels both offensively and defensively is such a rare attribute, I have a hard time seeing Tampa pass on Lackey. Edited to add. Tampa doesn’t have any top ranked SS in their system (MLB top 100). Daniel Pierce is their top SS prospect (5th ranked Tampa prospect) with a projected arrival of 2029. He was the 14th overall pick in last years draft. This may skew the decision towards drafting a SS.
  9. Eris
    No. This is wishful thinking. Buxton is at best an average defensive CF (3 OAA) which ranks 12th in MLB so far this season. If there is any doubt the evaluators/voters will look at his 0 for 28 (24 AB as he had 4 BB) with 2 outs and RISP resulting in 0 RBIs. Although Buxton maybe the best player on the Twins team, these are just not MVP caliber stats.
  10. Eris
    I don’t understand the fascination with Willi Castro. He was a well below average defender at every position except 3B and LF. In his career his DRS was 2B (-14) and SS (-24). I think Nick Punto should be the comparison.
  11. Eris
    “He also stole two bases. That’s dominance.” There is probably a typo here unless you mean stole 2 bases on one pitch or perhaps during one at bat. FanGraphs has Houston with 7 SB since June 1, and 20 for the season. He has stolen 2 bases during a game 3 times this season. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marek-houston/sa3034152/game-log?position=NP
  12. Eris
    That was a horrible at bat for Buxton. How much better would Buxton be if he only swung at pitches close to the strike zone.
  13. Eris
    In theory it makes sense. In 2025, 93 RP had 60 or more appearances. Only 2 had 80+ appearances. I think this somewhat defines the effectiveness and durability range for most relief pitchers. The challenge will be that the bottom third of the pitching staff is normally not very good. Also with using a RP for 1 inning, everyone is available tomorrow. It makes a managers job easier. For example, “I went with my closer and he didn’t get the job done.” Edited to add. There is really a math problem created by the starting pitching usage. If the average start is 5 innings the 8 relievers need to average 80 innings/year. (The average start in 2025 was 5.24 innings which is 76 innings for each of 8 relief spots—but only 9 players had 75 or more relief appearances in 2025). At an average start of 6 innings, relievers need to cover an average of 60 innings/year. But pointed above only about 3 relief pitchers per team throw that many innings. Before the rule change several years ago regarding the minimum amount of days an optioned player needed to be kept in the minors, this issue was dealt with by shuffling pitchers with options between the majors and minor leagues. (My calculations don’t take into consideration extra innings or when the home team does not bat in the 9th inning).
  14. Eris
    I’m liking the Austin Martin experience in RF. Defense and accuracy of throws matter. (Although since May 1, Martin has a 0.220 BA so that is not going to work either).
  15. Eris
    Hmm! If your comment is just about Outman okay I will concede your point immediately as Outman was maybe barely an average defensive CF who could not hit. Teams generally need backup defensive players at CF, SS, and C. The Twins have had many players who were on the roster as a defensive 4th outfielder. Shaun Anderson, Michael Taylor, Harrison Bader. Fans were spoiled because Bader and Taylor had career years with the Twins. I think the issue is one of economics. A MLB CF who can hit and field at or above league average is worth at least $10 million (e.g., Bader signed for 2 years at 20.5 million). Therefore most fourth outfielders capable of playing CF are defensive specialists who don’t command a high salary (I.e., they can’t hit). (exceptions occur, Manuel Margot was an offensive specialist who could not hit or play defensive with his stint with the Twins). Jake Cave was also below average defensively. Having someone like Clemens or Kreidler who can play other positions as well as a serviceable CF is a good solution. (Jury is still out on how well Kreidler and Clemens can fill in at CF). Early in his career Max Kepler was a slightly above average CF. Cody Bellinger was league average at 1B and above average in CF during his time with the Dodgers. Are there any teams that have two above average CF capable players in their everyday lineup. Last year’s Twins with Buxton and Bader were close. (Bader’s production has fallen off a cliff this year).
  16. Eris
    The Twins have failed to develop/harness the expected value of the Berrios trade. Therefore, the trade was a lost opportunity. That Berrios is hurt was a risk for Toronto and should not factor into the evaluation of the trade.
  17. Eris
    A good number of the trade speculation articles are also about writers hunting for clicks.
  18. Eris
    Lewis is in/close to the bottom third as a defensive 3B. He has had 4 years to figure out how to play 3B with no noticeable improvement. Time to move him to 1B. I like the Kreidler/Gray/Lee experience on the left side of the infield.
  19. Eris
    If Jenkins learns from this experience that one should not run full speed into a wall in a non critical game then he will have gained knowledge that took Buxton an additional 10 years to acquire.
  20. Eris
    Yes this appears to be the case and Martin has made some good plays (including throws) in RF recently, However, he does have a below average arm for RF
  21. Eris
    On Royce Lewis. Sometime injuries are just the result of bad luck. If I recall correctly, Lewis' first ACL injury happened while slipping on ice--an incident that seemed so minor that Lewis did not realize that he tore his ACL and it was discovered after experiencing general knee soreness during spring training. Very few MLB players have had 2 ACL restorations on the same knee and this is also his plant leg. It is quite likely that Lewis will never be the player he could have been without the injuries (and we will never really know). On Hunter Greene. He also had Tommy John surgery in 2018. Although that does not change the assessment that he has had the most career WAR to date. Additionally, Hunter Greene could have been a position player (SS/3B) as well.
  22. Eris
    Nice write up. Thank you.
  23. Eris
    I think the Twins are a better team with Kreidler at SS and Lee at 3B. Defensively this seems to be an upgrade at both positions.
  24. Eris
    I have always struggled with this aspect of sabermetrics. As for fWAR and bWAR calculations a HR with the bases empty is the same fWAR or bWAR contribution as a player hitting a 3 run HR.
  25. Eris
    Thanks for the interesting article. I would add one other item. Currently (meaning today) AI searches are heavily subsidized. Small organizations that need to make money to pay employees will generally have a hard time competing against much larger corporations willing to incur a loss for multiple years. At some point in the future these AI entities will need to make money to justify their investments. Then the free AI ride will end but by that time the smaller entities will be damaged or put out of business.
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