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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    Why should we not expect drafting and player development success as it is one of the main paths to a competitive team. The Twins have had 20 years of failure in the draft including many high picks and international signees. Of the players on this list (not including Jenkins or Rodriguez) only Berrios has not been a disappointment.
  2. Eris
    Because the “real” issues were / have not been addressed. We have too many players whose best position is DH. Looking at the current roster who has earned a roster spot for next season. Lee, Keaschall, Culpepper, and Clemens.
  3. Eris
    There was never an expectation that Brooks Lee would stick at SS. One of the flaws in the Twins player development is not identifying the best MLB position for some of their prospects and making sure they get lots of minor league experience at that position. Players who have played most of their minor league at SS for the Twins include Lee, Martin and Lewis. I don’t think this is a good strategy.
  4. Eris
    An additional issue with roster construction is that in several positions there was a huge fall off in capability of the starter and the injury replacement. This is mostly seen at CF but applies for many positions. Also, before Culpepper there was not acceptable defense at SS and there is still inadequate/inconsistent production at 1B and poor defense in LF and RF. Even with a healthy Buxton CF defense was below league average.
  5. Eris
    The Twins currently roster is along way from being a playoff competitive team—especially on defense. On the current roster only Keaschall and Larnach (who many expect not to be on team next year) have hit well enough to justify carrying them on the team despite their poor defense. There should be an expectation that everyone else is average or better defensively. Currently, Lee, Culpepper, Jenkins and maybe Clemens likely meet that. Buxton is now a below average CF and needs a new position. Everyone else the Twins need to consider moving on from.
  6. Eris
    Highest MLB ranking Sano (2 or 3) Kirilloff (top 20) Lewis (top 30) Buxton (#1 for 2 or 3 years). My point being that the Twins had a number of good/great prospects but injuries and inability to hit MLB pitching stands between being a prospect and being an elite player.
  7. Eris
    Realistically, the Twins have only Ryan Jeffers (and Culpepper maybe) who are above average both offensively and defensively. They have one of the worst defensives in all of MLB. This is not a championship team. What it takes to be a championship team. They need 3 or 4 players who can contribute better than 4 WAR a season. On the current roster only a healthy Buxton could play at that level. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. While much has been made on TD about last year’s trade deadline, they did not address the fundamental weaknesses of the team which were/are about 5 or 6 players whose best position was DH.
  8. Eris
    Larnach, even with the bad August, is somewhere between the 67th to 75th ranked player by offensive contribution (WRC+ or OWAR). There are 390 roster spots for hitters (13 x30). Someone who can hit well above average will have a roster spot somewhere—in Larnach’s as a DH. Maybe Larnach is hurt. He has had a history of groin muscle injuries.
  9. Eris
    Bill James Pythagorean Expectation is that a team will have one win for every 10 runs. The Twins have scored 615 runs and have 64 wins which is 9.6 runs per win. Keaschall has accumulated -13 DRS over 46 games in the OF. ( data is from FanGraphs). Replacing Keaschall with Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is the best outfielder in baseball currently, would have saved 18 runs over these games which will give about 1.89 wins (18/9.6). So instead of being 4 games out of the wildcard the Twins would be 2 games behind. Realistically, Jenkins or Rodriguez would not contribute at the level of Pete Crow-Armstrong and the actual win expectation difference is less than 2 games. There are other reasons why Jenkins and Rodriguez should be called up, but the expectation they are the difference between the Twins making the playoffs or not should not be one of them.
  10. Eris
    I really appreciate these updates and the effort put into this. One item that would be helpful is if the previous rankings reflected the highest ranking of the prospect. For example, in Spring 2025, Rodriguez was the TD #2 prospect and being currently ranked 6th represents a fairly significant drop. Similarly, after acquired in the 2025 trade deadline Tait was the TD 4th ranked prospect ( this is from memory I couldn’t find the actual ranking).
  11. Eris
    The challenge with one dimensional hitters is that there are people (and now perhaps computers) who work long hours trying to figure out how to get hitters out. Once they find a weakness it is up to hitter to compensate. Daniel Murphy likely had an oversized impact on the Twins hitting philosophy. What is overlooked is that like Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy’s success was short-lived. I look on in disbelief every time Buxton or Lewis take an outside pitch and ground it to the third baseman.
  12. Eris
    “The Twins called up their top prospect on August 7“ Nitpicking an otherwise fine article. Culpepper was the TD third ranked prospect behind Jenkins and Lackey. Does Culpepper have the defensive tools to remain at SS and be above average defensively.
  13. Eris
    If I am remembering correctly from the scouting reports Lewis was never thought likely to stick at SS. From that perspective the Twins did Lewis and themselves a huge disservice by playing him at SS in the minors as compared with better identifying his best position and giving him experience at that position in the minors. (A similar situation occurred with both Lee and Martin).
  14. Eris
    CS comparisons in A ball. Tait was 32/98 with Philadelphia. Diaw was 3/26.
  15. Eris
    I do find that my mlb.com dollars don’t go as far as they did several years ago because of Apple TV night, Peacock night, Netflix night, maybe Amazon Prime night in the future. I am seriously debating if I should just get a good internet radio and listen to the games.
  16. Eris
    Nice article. Thank you for sharing.
  17. Eris
    Longevity and consistency matter. Hrbek had 10 straight years where his WAR was never below 2.5.
  18. Eris
    The biggest Twins issue is not money but drafting and developing players. Hence the Twins have ended up with a roster full of DH types who lack speed and athleticism and can’t play defense. Injuries are part of the game. The Twins have three players whose careers were cut short by concussions (Mauer, Morneau and Koskie). I think the Carlos Correa resigning was very questionable in part because two other clubs (Mets and Giants) rescinded their contracts to Correa after evaluating is leg/ankle.
  19. Eris
    The Twins biggest threat is themselves. Since August 1, on games they have won their BA with RISP is 0.375. On games they have lost their BA with RISP was 0.154.
  20. Eris
    This is one of the challenges associated with international signees. Rodriquez has been in the Twins system since July of 2019. The best option is to call him up to give him an opportunity. The Twins have given more 40 plate appearances each to 3 outfielders with negative WAR. (Outman, Roden and Wallner).
  21. Eris
    I would add to this that Jenkins doesn’t need to be added to the 40 man roster until next December. Adding him this year reduces flexibility for the off-season. The Twins have 5 pitchers on the 60 day IL.
  22. Eris
    The Twins hitters looked really helpless against Dobnak. Not sure if this says more about Dobnak or more about the Twins.
  23. Eris
    Defensively the team ranks near the bottom (28th using FanGraphs). There is really not much can be done in this regard with the current roster. Only the catchers and Kreidler are above average defensively.
  24. Eris
    It is also about execution. Gómez’s pitch caught way too much of the plate. The run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is 0.887 and with the bases loaded and one out it is close to 1.5.
  25. Eris
    Quoted from the article. “The Minnesota Twins offense has been among baseball's best all season and currently leads the American League in runs scored.” Interesting in that both statements are true. I think this shows up because the Twins offense is more feast or famine and the averages hide these offensive inconsistencies. The Twins are 12-14 in 1 run games. The Twins are not losing games because of a high number of blown saves
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