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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    I think the challenge is there are too many holes to fill mostly due to under development of prospects. Trading Ryan or Lopez or both for top 20 MLB prospects which seems like a reach will not make the team substantially better as there 5 + positions that need serious upgrading and most of these position players from last year are still on the team. Several of these players are best suited for DH and describing them as position players is being generous.
  2. Eris
    Does anyone know where Law ranked the Twins farm system last year.
  3. Eris
    As there were about 6 underperforming positions players mostly responsible for the 2025 season results, upgrading most of these positions without waiting for prospects was always almost impossible. In fact all of these underperforming players (except Vasquez) are still on the team. So the 2026 season becomes trying the same thing over again (minus a good bullpen foundation) and expecting a different outcome.
  4. Eris
    What was the purpose of this article as it does not seem to be to discuss a fair trade proposal. In a normal trade, a team would trade current value (Jeffers) for the probability of greater value in the future. Or trade current value from a position of excess (maybe catcher) to a team that has excess at different position of need (e.g. the Twins would benefit from acquiring a 3WAR SS). The proposed Jeffers for Wong trade as discussed accomplishes neither of these as it involves the Twins trading current value for even less future value. No front office would ever make such a trade.
  5. Eris
    The Twins did not do a total selloff last year because Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Julien and Wallner did not have a lot of value. I understand the point of the article which is that starting pitchers and Jeffers have a lot of value. Literally there would be no position players to build around except Buxton and possibly Keaschall. Everyone else is just “hope”. You think a team 5 or 6 player who can not hit and whose best position is DH is bad, try a team full of non-hitting DH types with no starting pitching. At some level they need to sell tickets. There is hope the Lewis, Wallner, Martin, Keaschall and Jeffers can approach a 3 WAR season in which case the Twins will have a decent team. Also, to have an impact on the Twins outlook, they would have needed to trade each SP for Walker Jenkins type prospect as the Twins are many position players away from having a competitive post season team.
  6. Eris
    On Culpepper. College players selected in the first round are expected to rise quickly in the minors. Those who do not (see Aaron Sabato) likely will not have a successful MLB career. On E. Rodriguez. I’m estimating that he will have a strikeout rate in the mid 30s when he gets to the big leagues. I expect the first several years in the big leagues to be brutal. Call me old school but I don’t see how this is going to work unless he can get his strike out rate down to about 25%. (Miguel Sano’s K rate was 36% with BB of 12%)
  7. Eris
    The challenge in putting together a roster is that providing value is not the most meaningful metric. The goal is to make it into the postseason. Which means a roster of position players who averaged about 2 WAR each. Signing a player who provides 0.5 WAR at near league minimum may provide real value but it is unlikely to get the team closer to a playoff berth.
  8. Eris
    It is hard to judge a pitcher when they are hurt, especially if it is a hip. If the hip is or becomes chronic then this is who Ober is as a pitcher.
  9. Eris
    Larnach is not the only player whose roster spot should be in question. Every player who underperformed last season should available for a trade. (Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Julien). It is hard to win when half of the position players are below average and don’t play good defense. On Outman, the Twins need a backup CF who is about average defensively. Can (especially) Martin or possibly Rodon improve enough to not be a liability in CF.
  10. Eris
    While this is true, the Dodgers only won game 7 because an ex-Twin didn’t get an appropriate lead off of third in a critical situation. (Referring to Isiah Kiner-Falefa as an ex-Twin is probably pushing the boundaries of what it means to be an ex-Twin, but this is TD)
  11. Eris
    There are several scenarios where it makes sense. 1). The Twins solution to needing more right handed power is to maximize Jeffers at bats from 1B or DH. To this they need another catcher to distribute the catching duties. 2). Maybe Jeffers still has concussion like symptoms from his Sept 2025 concussion. 3). Possible trade of Jeffers is in the works (I think this is unlikely as it seems this would be done by now).
  12. Eris
    Moving Ryan Jeffers to first base and getting him in 140 games a year would make a lot of sense. He likely will be above average defensively at 1B and one of the Twins best right handed power bats increases playing time. But the Twins have Julien, Bell, Clemens, maybe Keaschall and a bunch of other players to pencil in there. Ryan Jeffers experienced concussion like symptoms in early September 2025, but he did catch 2 games towards the end of the season. Maybe there are some health concerns here. (I have no information that supports this other than he missed about 3 weeks towards the end of the 2025 season).
  13. Eris
    I agree with you. The problem is that the Twins have 5 ish positions that are below average with no expectations of upgrades until prospects arrive or “hope “ that the current players (Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, whose ever at 1B) can turn it around.
  14. Eris
    If a focus is on starting pitching then pairing that with quality catchers who call a good game makes sense. Not sure if our catcher quality meets that criteria.
  15. Eris
    I realize this article is about RP, but it doesn’t make much sense to focus on value when the team has two or three position players who average or above average. This is not a competitive team based on last year’s performance. We are left hoping that the once promising position players turn it around.
  16. Eris
    From FanGraphs. WRC+ of 75. Below average both offensively and defensively. A utility play who can’t hit should at least be able to play defense. Not sure I understand this move at all.
  17. Eris
    I think this is unfair to Kody Clemens. Clemens produced 1.4 fWAR last season with average to slightly above average defense. Garlick's best season was 0.4 fWAR. As an added note, 6 Twins position players with at least 100 plate appearances had an fWAR below Garlick's best season. So maybe Kyle Garlick is the appropriate benchmark as painful as that may be to think about. Major League Leaderboards - 2025 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
  18. Eris
    Do we know when he tested positive.
  19. Eris
    I don’t understand the appeal the Twins have for seriously underperforming veterans who have been passed over by multiple teams. I would much rather watch their prospects play. At least the youth provide hope for the future.
  20. Eris
    Not sure I really understand everything that was written. I don’t need to. A MLB player who is unable to catch up to a fastball will generally have a very short and unsuccessful career.
  21. Eris
    There is also Mickey Gasper. Although much derided on TD, he made a number of nice throws from behind the plate. His throws to nab Clement and Judge at 3rd were exceptional In reality he probably grades out as a well below average catcher https://www.mlb.com/video/ernie-clement-caught-stealing-2nd-base-catcher-mickey-gasper-to-second-ba https://www.mlb.com/stories/player/681508
  22. Eris
    Emmanuel Rodriguez is an interesting prospect. His stats have a lot of similarities with 3 time AL MVP Aaron Judge. There a difference in K%. Judge averaged 25% SO in his MiLB career whereas ERodriguez has averaged 30% across his minor league career. It took Judge 6 seasons to get his MLB SO rate down to his minor league average.
  23. Eris
    I agree with this. The percentage of MLB pitchers who fail to return to previous levels of effectiveness after thoracic outlet syndrome is close to 50%.
  24. Eris
    The problem with these metrics is they don’t take into consideration defensive placement as if the batter has no control over where the ball is hit. Someone who is a dead pull hitter almost always will have an outcome worse than expected as their hitting placement is more predictable and defense positions accordingly. (Unless they are hitting home runs). For years we have read how Max Kepler was one of the most unluckiest hitters in all of baseball. But even moving to a hitter friendly park did improve outcomes for Kepler. I am sure that when Julien and Clemens learn to pepper line drives to all fields their outcomes will improve.
  25. Eris
    This is too true. While much has been written on TD about the trade deadline tear down, the reality is that most of the underperforming position players are still on the team. The best we can hope for is that this is the year that Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner and Julian get their act together. With Outman and Kreidler the “hope“ list is expanding. Hope is not a strategy.
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