Right Now Is (Unfortunately) the Right Time to Trade Trevor Larnach

[Nick Nelson]

Timing has worked against the former first-round draft pick during his tenure in the Twins organization. Now, timing dictates that the smart move is for the team to deal him away at this deadline.

That's not an indictment of Larnach as a player. Quite the opposite, in fact. 

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

There seems to be a perception that Trevor Larnach has been a failure as a draft pick or development project. It's just not fair or accurate.

First of all, he's been pretty decent! The Twins selected Larnach in the second half of the first round, where it's very difficult to find future stars. They liked him for his high-floor bat, and he's delivered on that appeal. Larnach has slashed .283/.371/.452 in the minors. He has a 96 OPS+ and 2.0 fWAR in 180 major-league games, which – while far from great – is respectable, especially for a developing young player.

And that's the other part: the book is hardly written on Larnach for a big-leaguer. I will remind you that Brent Rooker, drafted a year earlier as a similar high-floor college hitter, had a .668 OPS in the majors through his age-27 season and was an All-Star at age 28. 

It takes time, especially for players like Rooker and Larnach who had their development massively disrupted by the lost COVID season. 

That bit of poor timing for Larnach, coming just as he was arriving in the high minors and preparing to make his case for a call-up, was the first of many in his tumultuous young career. 

After getting no official at-bats in 2020, Larnach reached the majors in 2021 and was beginning to establish himself as a fixture, before a hand injury tanked his numbers and ultimately forced him to finish on the IL. Last year he again was looking solid at the plate before another injury ended his season, this time a core muscle issue.

In spite of all that, Larnach has actually shown far more promise than Rooker had up to this point. The strikeouts are out of control but Larnach has shown the ability to take some walks and he's a capable defender. His raw power has flashed in big ways at times. 

 

Twins fans can easily lose sight of it, given the stockpile in this organization, but quality left-handed bats are in short supply elsewhere. As Twins Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey recently shared that the team's lefty bats have been "asked on a lot," adding that "there are teams that don't have any of that and they're dying to get some."

 

To plenty of other teams, rebuilding or otherwise, Larnach should have a lot of appeal – still controllable for four more seasons, with upside yet to be tapped. In the Twins organization, his path is almost hopelessly blocked. He managed to get only 10 at-bats in his latest MLB stint before being optioned to make room for Byron Buxton on Thursday. 

Even if the Twins are able to keep Matt Wallner on the roster by, say, designating Joey Gallo for assignment, that still leaves Larnach with no path to regular playing time. His lefty bat remains stacked behind at least two others in the corner outfield mix, with Nick Gordon also returning to the fold at some point. And here's the other thing: Larnach will be out of options next spring.

The clock is ticking and now seems like the right time to make a proactive move with Larnach rather than waiting to make a reactive one. Larnach deserves a real opportunity and now that he's been firmly passed in the pecking order by Wallner, it's exceedingly difficult to see him getting it here. 

The Twins should take the best offer for Larnach and give him a chance to make an impact elsewhere since it just ain't coming here.

 

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[silverslugger]

Or, now seems like the right time to DFA Gallo, trade Kepler for a bucket o' balls and give the corner outfield spots to Wallner and Larnach and let them become the next TWO Brent Rooker's for the Twins.

[Nashvilletwin]

Just now, silverslugger said:

Or, now seems like the right time to DFA Gallo, trade Kepler for a bucket o' balls and give the corner outfield spots to Wallner and Larnach and let them become the next TWO Brent Rooker's for the Twins.

Exactly.  Would we rather have Kepler for 1/3rd of a season or four more years of Larnach?  It’s not even close.

Before we jettison Larnach and/or Wallner, we need to keep in mind that Kepler, Gallo, and possibly Castro, Taylor and/or Gordon will not be here next year.  At the moment Larnach and Wallner are part of our corner outfield solution, even if neither or just one of them are an everyday starter.

It’s not time to sell Larnach. Rather, it’s the opposite: it’s time to invest in Larnach.

[Dman]

If it is a good return I am all for it, but I do think he can be slightly above average defensively in left and I think given time his bat will come around.  Don't need to give more good bats away.  If it isn't this year then next might be tough as well as Rosario and Rodriguez will be moved up and one step away as well.  I don't think he has to be traded at the deadline but if someone wants to offer us a good deal I would be all ears.

[nicksaviking]

Trading Larnach in a package sounds like a great idea to me.

Just not for a platoon right handed bat. Try to make meaningful moves, not half measures simply because you’ll face a left handed starter a couple times a week.

[LA Vikes Fan]

We have to keep 2024 and beyond in mind when we talk about Larnach. Next year's OFs are Buxton, Castro and . . . .? Gallo is likely gone. MAT can't hit and is 32 so he's not a long term solution. Castro is a nice UTL, but he is not a starter on a good team. Kepler is streaky and do we want him at $10m next year? Tough swallow. 

I'm ok with trading Larnach as part of a deadline where also get a young OF from somewhere like Dylan Carlson from the Cards or Lane Thomas from the Nats. I'm sure there are others.  OR. . . . if the thinking is to play Lewis in LF next year with Polanco at 3B AND keep Kepler. If we not going to do one of those two things,  we need to keep Wallner AND Larnach around. I say AND because we're at least one season away from knowing if either of them can cut it as a full time starter at the MLB level so I'd rather have both to increase the odds. Don't trade Larnach for a rental reliever, only trade him for something good  and only as part of a deadline that brings back a young replacement. 

[Nine of twelve]

Once again, every player who does not have a no-trade clause in his contract should always be on the market and traded if the transaction improves the organization. Every. Player.

[mikelink45]

Unfortunately for all the congestion in the OF, Buxton, Kepler, Gallo are not quality starters at this time and we all know Taylor is supposed to be a reserve.  That means Larnach and Wallner have the potential to be our starters and to produce.  I know the team will not give up on Buxton, but should give up on the DH only idea, but the others should be taken away as obstacles.  

If Larnach is not going to be given the opportunity here I would like to see him go where he can play everyday. 

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Once again, every player who does not have a no-trade clause in his contract should always be on the market and traded if the transaction improves the organization. Every. Player.

This should be true. The exceptions are those with no trade clauses which they will not drop. 

I like Larnach and believe he will do well if given plenty of time. The Yankees have been giving Volpe a ton of playing time and he has his average up over .200 now. 

San Diego might be interested in Larnach. Would Preller send Hader for Larnach, Winder, and a lower level pitcher? 

I don't see Kepler going anywhere and he still has skills. Gallo has reached the end. Even if Gallo goes, Larnach still doesn't have a path to playing time. Both Larnach and Wallner need playing time. One of them should be traded.

[stringer bell]

I am not so optimistic that Trevor Larnach will succeed as a major league player. The strikeouts are a problem and the power production thus far has been decidedly mediocre. He has shown flashes and he is still only 26, but to me that is where a guy moves out of the prospect category to something else. He certainly hasn't established himself as a major league regular.

I wouldn't rule out Trevor becoming a solid regular, but I agree that now is the time to move him if they get a suitable return.

[old nurse]

I quit reading one he brought up Brent Rooker and touting his All Star status. So from that I would gather that the Twins should trade Larnach to as horrible of team as possible because somebody has to be the team representative. 

[jorgenswest]

I am not advocating buying this year. They can try to make a parallel move and trade Larnach for a player with similar age/control that is a better roster fit. This year is not the time to trade him for a player on an expiring contract or in decline,

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

This year is not the time to trade him for a player on an expiring contract or in decline,

What about for Hader? San Diego would want more too (Winder or Varland or Balazovic).

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not ready to give up on larnach yet , yes He has  some flaws to work on with the off speed pitches ...

He not over the hill yet so the young dog should  learn new tricks , he just needs to identify the pitches better  , his defense looks better this year but the off speed pitches are his worst enemy  , larnach should go to driveline this winter  to work on his hitting  , a fresh approach with a different voice just might be the key to unlock him into a pretty good player , if he fails from driveline and with the Twins next year , then it is time to move on ....

Are you listening Trevor  , driveline is almost on your backyard  ...

[dxpavelka]

The timing issue with Larnach is the one that rears it's head when he tries to put his bat on a breaking pitch.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Exactly.  Would we rather have Kepler for 1/3rd of a season or four more years of Larnach?  It’s not even close.

Before we jettison Larnach and/or Wallner, we need to keep in mind that Kepler, Gallo, and possibly Castro, Taylor and/or Gordon will not be here next year.  At the moment Larnach and Wallner are part of our corner outfield solution, even if neither or just one of them are an everyday starter.

It’s not time to sell Larnach. Rather, it’s the opposite: it’s time to invest in Larnach.

Coach him up.  Larnach often looks lost up there without a clue in the world.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

I quit reading one he brought up Brent Rooker and touting his All Star status. So from that I would gather that the Twins should trade Larnach to as horrible of team as possible because somebody has to be the team representative. 

Truth. Seriously. Rooker isn't good. If that's what Larnach is, they should trade him. 

[JD-TWINS]

24 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What about for Hader? San Diego would want more too (Winder or Varland or Balazovic).

S.D. isn’t moving anyone off their staff - they still think they are in the Wild Card.

I see both sides of this. If somebody really wants him they’ll let us know. Trading him for rental is tough but necessary to do to compete at times. We need Pen help!! See last 2 ball games. However we make that happen, that’s what we need to do.

Next year dumping Kepler is fine - right now he’s our best defensive & offensive OF (sad) - cannot trade nor DFA!!!

Gallo is gone for sure next year - maybe in a few days?

Keeping Larnach to try next year for a 3 month experiment everyday is an acceptable plan - make a decision next July. Wallner everyday in the other corner. Gordon/Castro/some RH bat from within our system as 5th OF.

Spend $$ on pitching in ‘24!! Extend a couple young guys. 

Taylor - Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Solano all add up to $70M…….we can maybe re-sign Maeda for $11M & Solano for $4M………that leaves us $55M to help us forget/fix it if we make a mistake with Trevor Larnach at the deadline in ‘23!

[JD-TWINS]

Polanco & Larnach & an A ball SS prospect together for a reliever with some control. They go to a team that’s trying to build with real players & as soon as next year. 2 middle of the order bats at 2 different points in their careers.

Frees up needed 26 man roster spots!

A team like Colorado works with a 2-3 different relief options.

[Brandon]

Well David Robertson got traded to the Marlins so that isn’t happening now.

[MTV]

I’m very interested to see how the Twins handle the outfield scenario this week and in the coming years, the only real long-term Outfield prospect in this Organization is Emmanuel Rodriguez, who won’t debut until likely 2025. Larnach isn’t putting up consistent-enough numbers to be an every day starter and is near the bottom of the depth chart because of it. I don’t think he’ll garner a huge return but could get back a decent package.

As for the rest of the outfield, it’s puzzling. Kep has put together solid numbers recently but maybe you get something with that, I really want Gallo to break out and I see the possibility but don’t like the risk, trade him if you can. Wallner is beginning to prove to be a reliable middle-order bat, and must be kept in the majors, so a corner outfield spot is locked down. Taylor’s a 4th outfielder, and should be used as such. Buxton should start getting Reps in Center, his value has cratered so low that at this point you risk it. Castro is a nice 13th man Utility player/bench bat, but not a starter. So a left fielder and centerfielder would do. Hopefully 2 controllable players, because next year’s outfield of Wallner/Buxton/Gordon/Castro/Kirilloff doesn’t look very promising.

[Karbo]

I just keep thinking how they gave up on David Ortiz. Larnach needs a chance for more playing time facing MLB off speed stuff. Then make a decision.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

Well David Robertson got traded to the Marlins so that isn’t happening now.

Check back in 9 years to see if the Mets won the trade

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

And here's the other thing: Larnach will be out of options next spring.

According to Roster Resource: Trevor has 1 option remaining after this season.

[Doctor Wu]

I wouldn't lose any sleep if the Twins traded Larnach. But realistically, what could they get for him? Basically, I'm sitting on the fence as far as to what value he might have for the Twins, but right now it's a case of too many cooks in the kitchen for the Twins, so if we can get a decent player with some potential for him, go ahead and do it. 

[CRF]

I'm not opposed to Larnach being traded, but I'd much rather dump Gallo and trade Kepler. Everyone knows Larnach struggles with off speed stuff, but there aren't many young(er) players that don't. He's been up and down many times, and I don't think he's really had enough time up here to develop. Maybe he never gets it...maybe he does. I'd take him over Gallo in a heartbeat. I'd give Larnach and Wallner shots at the two corners and move on from Kepler. 

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Coach him up.  Larnach often looks lost up there without a clue in the world.

He can't hit breaking pitches.  Not sure how much you can coach that up.

 

[USAFChief]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I am not so optimistic that Trevor Larnach will succeed as a major league player. The strikeouts are a problem and the power production thus far has been decidedly mediocre. He has shown flashes and he is still only 26, but to me that is where a guy moves out of the prospect category to something else. He certainly hasn't established himself as a major league regular. 

Concur.

I wanted to believe, but he's not shown much. His minors power is actually quite disappointing.  SlG only .452 in the minors, .402 at AAA and sub .400 in the majors so far are huge red flags IYAM. The "lost a minor league season to covid" excuse is beyond lame. So did everyone his age, and players lose seasons to injury all the time. It was 3 years ago, it's close to a nonfactor.

If you can still get value for him, do it.

[mikelink45]

5 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

He can't hit breaking pitches.  Not sure how much you can coach that up.

 

If not, what are all our hitting coaches here for?

[twinstalker]

Rooker?  How bad is he?  He had a hot streak and pitchers again found his holes, and he's terrible.  Might he become competent?  Potentially, and I expect Larnach to have a year or two where he's competent.

When you trade someone there has to be hope for that player or nobody would want him.  They've actually waited far too long to trade Larnach, and now they're going to get a pile of sticks for him, but it's a pile that might be useful for a couple of months.