Right Now Is (Unfortunately) the Right Time to Trade Trevor Larnach

[Major League Ready]

My take is that there is a good chance he is an average MLB player or better.  Trading away players with 4 or more years of control for a rental, especially given this team's mediocre profile is a good way to remain mediocre.  Apparently, last year's debacle has not made this clear.  Before anyone says they should have traded for other players, part of the point is these veterans are not the guarantee many make them out to be.  Perhaps more importantly, it would not have made a difference if Mahle and Lopez had performed to expectations.  Investing significant assets in rentals is simply desperate unless the team is a true contender. 

A trade something like LA Vikes Fan lays out is a different story.  If they can trade for young talent that fits our roster better, great.  

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

My take is that there is a good chance he is an average MLB player or better.  Trading away players with 4 or more years of control for a rental, especially given this team's mediocre profile is a good way to remain mediocre.  Apparently, last year's debacle has not made this clear.  Before anyone says they should have traded for other players, part of the point is these veterans are not the guarantee many make them out to be.  Perhaps more importantly, it would not have made a difference if Mahle and Lopez had performed to expectations.  Investing significant assets in rentals is simply desperate unless the team is a true contender. 

Neither Mahle or Lopez were rentals. 

[MABB1959]

I like Larnach and would not miss Gallo or Kepler.  Larnach has a much better chance of improving.  I don't think they would get much of anything from either Gallo or Kepler though. 

Our playoff chances are slim unless they can take care of the remaining ALC teams in August/September so why not give them their auditions for the remaining 2 months as they need consistent time here to really determine anything.  Last year was devastating being in 1st place and ending up 14 games out in about a month's time 

I also don't think they give our "future" players enough time in the MLB to make any long term determinations.  Both Larnach and Wallner need to stay.  It has to be hard on the confidence to know you are one strikeout away from going back. Seems to me we send our potential good to great players to other teams and watch them blossom with another team while we try to figure out the next bunch.  I bet Larnach's career would better off being traded.  Rosario, Hicks, Berrios and many others have went on to competitive teams and done well.  So if he does get traded I would be happy for him.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Neither Mahle or Lopez were rentals. 

Your right.  I should have said short-term assets instead of rentals which of course is more accurate in Mahle's case.  It also does not change the overall premise that this is not a team worthy of investing significant assets for a playoff run, especially assets that would likely be on the ML team next year.  

I would add that neither one of them added ANY value beyond what a rental would have.

[jorgenswest]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What about for Hader? San Diego would want more too (Winder or Varland or Balazovic).

I am not a buyer this year and only interested in parallel moves that will improve 2024. Hader is a free agent. I also am not sure I want to pay for his decline in his next contract.

The deal is a fair deal. If I thought the Twins could contend I would endorse it. Every team can use Hader though. Someone will offer prospects with better upside. 

[insagt1]

no one is talking about Solano. He has been terrible over the past several weeks. Should he be in the discussion?

Injuries continue to plague the Twins, so Larnach is still good insurance if they can keep him in the organization. there is no guarantee that Buxton will ever play CF again, for example.

Management likes Kepler so I doubt they move him. And if he contributes like he has since the ASG, hanging on to him will have made sense. Gallo however is expendable. I won't miss him if he goes.

I would always be VERY cautious about putting any trade together that offers one or more position players for a pitcher. Its high risk. I don't see any relievers on the market that could offer more value than position players down the stretch. Case in point...Cano. He was a first half all-star, but he is not an allstar anymore. He has reverted back to what he has always been. Pitchers are mostly fragile in that they can swing in both directions quickly...good to bad or bad to good.

Do Twins have enough pitching? What team does? The Seattle series exposed a lot of holes. fortunately the AL Central is made up of holes!

[Doctor Gast]

The time to trade Larnach  was before now when his trade value was worth something. Larnach is at his low point, you never sell at a low point. Larnach can still turn it around so I'd stick w/ him until he does. We've had a glut of cOF big bats especially LH, they draft & horde these guys. still FO went out took a chance & signed Gallo & put us in a bigger bind.

They take these guys & try to squeeze out a few more HRs with the by-product of greatly increasing SOs. Prioritizing on this & neglecting their defense & base running.

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

He can't hit breaking pitches.  Not sure how much you can coach that up.

That didn't stop them from giving Gallo $11M and a season's worth of playing time.

[chpettit19]

I've been a big Larnach fan since he was drafted. I liked the pick, and thought he had a real chance at being a heart of the order hitter for the Twins. I'm not such a believer anymore. He simply can't hit offspeed pitches, and expecting that switch to flip is every bit as risky as trading him now for a reasonable package.

I have no idea how the rest of the league views him. I don't know what kind of trade he could be a part of. I love the idea of trading him for Hader (but not adding a AAA/MLB pitcher with him, holy smokes is that an overpay for a rental reliever) if the Twins are going to change their ways and pay a reliever. I love the idea of a Hader/Duran paring at the end of the bullpen. Even if they can't extend Hader I'd probably trade Larnach for Hader just for this playoff push as a Hader/Duran combo turns every playoff game into a 7 inning game for the other offense, and I'll take my chances with that to win a series or 2, which I think has it's own value for this organization.

Gallo going in some way, shape, or form would be my first move (liked taking that risk, started hot, unplayable now), and I'd also be listening on Kepler and Wallner to see what move makes the most sense to improve the organization overall. But they have to do something with this mass of interchangeable, not good enough (yet maybe?) lefty cOF players. I expect Wallner to go back to AAA today for Polanco, and that's as clear of a sign as any that they need to move on from a guy or 2 in this jumbled mess.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

no one is talking about Solano. He has been terrible over the past several weeks. Should he be in the discussion?

Injuries continue to plague the Twins, so Larnach is still good insurance if they can keep him in the organization. there is no guarantee that Buxton will ever play CF again, for example.

Management likes Kepler so I doubt they move him. And if he contributes like he has since the ASG, hanging on to him will have made sense. Gallo however is expendable. I won't miss him if he goes.

 

Solano has a 116 wRC+ for July and 131 since June 1st.  I have no problem with them trading him to reshape the roster but he has not been terrible.

Have to agree on Larnach but I would still trade him if the return is right.

I don't think they are in love with Kepler.  The problem is neither is any other team so he has not been traded.  I am really hope this recent run of good play facilitates a trade.

Gallo will not (better not) be here after the deadline even if it's a DFA.

[Robert Gauthier]

Keplers redeeming quality is always been his defense.  Now that his bat is heating up, it’s silly to get rid of him for next to nothing. Gallo is a failed experiment. Decent outfielder, but we can’t afford to have both Gallo and Buxton in the same lineup because one of the two of them as a guaranteed out every time they come up to bat. They used to be true of Kepler, but he seems to have Straightened out the holes in his swing. He this front office hangs onto borderline veterans way too long. 

[specialiststeve]

Much rather move Max and Gallo and keep Larnach... 

[Whitey333]

IMO I Think the Twins have mishandled him and others.  It's quite obvious they don't like, want, or think he is a viable major league talent.  He's shown flashes of brilliance.  But seems like as soon as he goes into an 0 for 10 slump they shun him even though at one point early in the season he was second on the team with 30 some RBI. His reward?  Send him to st. Paul.  He has trouble hitting a breaking ball.  Has anyone watched Byron Buxton flailing away at breaking balls the past few years?  He can't hit it either.  I agree with the contributer about why the hitting instructors can't seem to help him.  Isn't that what they get paid for?  It's more than just Larnach messing up here.  He deserves to be on a major league team somewhere.  I'm hoping that the Twins either make him an everyday player or trade him to an organization that can use him.  After all we have Joey Gallo don't we lol?

[nicksaviking]

I'm not giving up on Larnach, but now is the time to trade him. His value is still tied up in his draft equity, and at this late point in development, I think pedigree is an unwise metric. Normally I'd give a young guy a longer leash, but the Twins have plenty of unheralded players like Chris Williams, Anthony Prato, Jair Camargo, DeShawn Keirsey and Yunior Severino who are all hitting as well or better, mostly better, than Larnach ever did in the upper minors. When there are open spots on the 26-man, I think at this point the team should be seeing what the other guys can do.

[TopGunn#22]

Like Doc Gast said, the time to trade Larnach was when his value was higher.  He's gone from a BBTV's high of 30.4 to his present value of 3.7.  Hader is valued at 2.9 and is a 29 year old FA at season's end.  If the Padres would accept a Larnach for Hader deal I'd do it in a heartbeat.  Trevor will never hit breaking balls.  I give the 26 year old OF up for the best RP in baseball in my opinion, even if he's just a rental.  But I'd do everything I could within reason to bring Hader back.

Gallo should be DFA'd or find a team that we can get an A ball player for him.  Kepler, at this point isn't going anywhere.  2024 is a different story.  With Walker Jenkins and E-Rod a ways off, I see Royce Lewis in LF or CF next season as a distinct possibility.  Polanco is like Larnach in that his value has fallen from about 36.0 (it was as high as 45) to 8.5 on BBTV's.  The HUGE difference is that Polanco has shown he can hit.  AND he's a SH.  Always valuable in a lineup.  But with Julien, Brooks Lee and Lewis where exactly does Polanco fit?  With the departures of Gray, Maeda and Mahle from the pitching staff and our lopsided position player situation I think you could see a massive overhaul of the Twins roster next season.  It's why I think they need to buy AND sell at the deadline.  

[farmerguychris]

Why would we trade a guy who can be part of our future when we have the 'current' guys failing? Trade or cut Kepler and Gallo and let Larnach and Wallner play the corners with hopefully a right handed guy acquired for the current 2.

Larnach (mostly due to injury) hasn't shown us a full year of what he can do.  Gallo and Kepler have.

 

[Steve Lein]

I would trade Larnach for a rental in a heartbeat.

The facts are, Larnach has had many opportunities, and never been able to run with it. Sure, you can blame a couple of injuries, but that doesn't change the fact that Matt Wallner has now surpassed him. He's redundant no matter what you think of his remaining potential to break out.

Would love to get Hader for him. But I don't think Larnach alone gets that done either.

The other idea I've kicked around is wondering if the Angels need a LHH. Swap Larnach for Jo Adell (but is injured at the moment).

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

According to Roster Resource: Trevor has 1 option remaining after this season.

? He was added to the 40-man in 2021 and has been optioned in each of the past three years. 

[Nick Nelson]

55 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Why would we trade a guy who can be part of our future when we have the 'current' guys failing? Trade or cut Kepler and Gallo and let Larnach and Wallner play the corners with hopefully a right handed guy acquired for the current 2.

Larnach (mostly due to injury) hasn't shown us a full year of what he can do.  Gallo and Kepler have.

 

Because the guys with futures have trade value and the veterans on expiring contracts have much less. (None, in Gallo's case.) This front office likes to make hay of an opportunity, which Falvey's quote hints at them viewing this as. 

[Nick Nelson]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Truth. Seriously. Rooker isn't good. If that's what Larnach is, they should trade him. 

Oh yeah? If Larnach has a 125 OPS+ next year you won't be moved, huh.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

I'm not opposed to Larnach being traded, but I'd much rather dump Gallo and trade Kepler. Everyone knows Larnach struggles with off speed stuff, but there aren't many young(er) players that don't. He's been up and down many times, and I don't think he's really had enough time up here to develop. Maybe he never gets it...maybe he does. I'd take him over Gallo in a heartbeat. I'd give Larnach and Wallner shots at the two corners and move on from Kepler. 

I'm not convinced that Kepler's recent play will continue.  I concur with trading high on Kepler if there is an opportunity to do so.  Larnach's age and years of team control over Kepler weigh heavily why I prefer moving Kepler.  Especially if the return is similar.  Dumping Gallo and keeping Wallner on the big-league roster is a no brainer.  At least I hope it is!

 

 

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

Check back in 9 years to see if the Mets won the trade

I was thinking David Robert’s would be a great addition to our relievers.  We would have an elite relief pitching with Duran,Jax, Robertson, Brock and Thielbar ….  

[mnfireman]

LH hitting corner OF type SSS, each players last 7 games, stat lines of the day:

Wallner - .320/.393/.720 (1.113 OPS) 3 HR, 10 K's

Larnach - .318/.375/.636 (1.011 OPS) 1 HR, 10 K's

Kepler - .280/.308/.360 (.668 OPS) 0 HR, 4 K's

Gallo - .053/.100/.105 (.205 OPS) 0 HR, 13 K's

Buxton - .103/.188/.310 (.498 OPS) 2 HR, 14 K's - included because he was re-instated and Larnach send down.

2 guys absolutely stink, 1 is close to league average and 2 are hot, guess who keeps getting run out there every day and who sits the bench or toils in the minors. This loyalty and long-leash for the veterans will probably come back to hurt this team.

[mnfireman]

16 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Oh yeah? If Larnach has a 125 OPS+ next year you won't be moved, huh.

Rooker's slash line since May 1, .203/.283./.363 (.646 OPS), roughly 85 OPS+, with 7 HR and 86 K's, would fit right in on this Twins team.

[jishfish]

For the right player I would have absolutely no problem including Larnach in a deal. I think if he is included though, I would like to see it in a deal that clears up some of the roster issues the Twins have (i.e. Too many LHH Corner OFs).

I know a lot of people assume Max will be gone next year, but they've had multiple opportunities to move off of him in the past and haven't, so if I was betting on it right now, I think they'll execute his option for next year. I would really like to see Wallner get some legit run as well, which leaves Larnach as the odd-man out. 

I have no idea if they have any interest in him, but I think the Cardinals would be my preferred trade partner, trying to get back either O'Neill or Carlson, both of whom can play CF and hit LH pitching. I know it would take Larnach + something, but I think either of those deals put the Twins roster in a much better position, and could be a good "Change of Scenery" trade on both sides.

[Nick Nelson]

27 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Rooker's slash line since May 1, .203/.283./.363 (.646 OPS), roughly 85 OPS+, with 7 HR and 86 K's, would fit right in on this Twins team.

Why are we parsing it out like this? Did the season start on May 1st? We're all aware he had a hot start and cooled off but the numbers still count and he's been a good offensive player overall. (Also don't steal my lines lol.)

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

? He was added to the 40-man in 2021 and has been optioned in each of the past three years. 

There are only 2 seasons between 2021 and now. I don't see where they burned an option in 2021, he has very few games in AAA that season.

[tony&rodney]

33 minutes ago, jishfish said:

I have no idea if they have any interest in him, but I think the Cardinals would be my preferred trade partner, trying to get back either O'Neill or Carlson, both of whom can play CF and hit LH pitching.

These two are worth a phone call. The main issue is that the Cardinals are only really interested in pitching and preferably pitchers with a number of years of control. Do they see Varland, Festa, or SWR as a fair return? I might agree with trading two of those pitchers for one of the St. Louis outfielders but have no idea what their GM wants in return.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no idea how the rest of the league views him. I don't know what kind of trade he could be a part of. I love the idea of trading him for Hader (but not adding a AAA/MLB pitcher with him, holy smokes is that an overpay for a rental reliever

What about Larnach and either Sands or Winder for Hader?

[Nick Nelson]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are only 2 seasons between 2021 and now. I don't see where they burned an option in 2021, he has very few games in AAA that season.

Larnach's options, per MLB.com:

• Aug 16, 2021
• March 30, 2022
• May 5, 2023 (also June 14 and July 26)

They optioned him in 2021 before they shut him down with the hand injury. What am I missing here?