twinstalker

Um, the Twins were supposed to win about 75 games, and they've lost their best hitter and best pitcher in the second half.

Because you think he's good?

Rosario: 2026 K rate 31% ------> 40% in MLB. He's not a real prospect. We've been through this before with Severino. These guys are organization guys.

If you weren't going to keep him down all year, the Twins were absolutely stupid to not trade Larnach to the Astros when they came back with interest after blowing up the Abreu trade. Pride is a terrible thing.

100 PA is nothing, but it's pretty obvious even from the basic B-R stat line that he's changed something to his benefit that may or may not be temporary and due to no A+ book on him. Unfortunately, the Bayesian prior for rh college 1B is incredibly poor. It will take a lot of consistent non-chasing, high zone contact through next season. He'll need to move up quickly to stay in the proper age vs level zone for any real kind of prospect. Keep an eye on the K rate. If K/PA stays around 17%-18% while producing good power and moving up, he could be a prospect.

Finally, someone who knows Twins history!

LOL. This is just a bow to the third player taken in the draft and NOTHING else. Twins had a 2018 second rd pick (under very different development) make it and haven't had a single other catcher from the system do anything in ten years. It would seem our job here to identify the BS in the same way political statements need to be vetted. Not celebrate something that has weak legs.

He strikes out too much for his power profile and age vs level, but there are some indicators that he's improving. Huge longshot still. We'll see next year.

A requirement for being on this list should be that you haven't gone down in competition to get on it.

I've been suspect about the offense, and getting off to a decent start there means very little. But my prediction on him was/is I just don't know. There are too many conflicting predictors. As I've stated, this is a wait and see. But it was enough to put him ahead of everybody except Jenkins...and perhaps Lackey. The impressive thing is his defense. Much better than I imagined. Not great, but it looks like he's got all the skills to improve to great. Footwork, arm, et al give some hope there. Since I've never thought Houston was anything hitting-wise, this is essential perhaps.

This is a lie. If they think Jenkins is good enough, then they will (or they better) treat him at the #1 or #2 position player on the team. Where and when do you play Jenkins? Every day, and you fit everyone around him except perhaps for Buxton. And if they find he's not ready, send his ass back down. Nope, this is a service time issue. Or it had better be.

% of pitches swung at isn't a good stat. You need to split it into in-zone and out of zone to start to get any useful info. Most likely the low pct pitches swung at (overall) is probably related to passivity.

I was going to quote the misleading parts of this article, but there were too many instances. For one, exactly how many games do you think he spent at SS, and did it seem like he was there because because the team wanted him there? No, he's played 2 innings in three years. He's played 12 games total in CF. He's a corner guy in low A, which is going to ultimately restrict him to 1B/DH, assuming he's any good at 1B, because it's the guys playing SS and CF that play the OF, 3B, SS, 2B, and more often than not 1B in the bigs. So just by looking at his fielding positions, the chances of him ever even making it are remote. Almost every hitter in a major league lineup was a SS or a CF or a C. He's none of the above. Some lh power guys have to play 1B due to inability to play the other infield as a lh thrower. He's right handed. Every hitter's stats are uneven, the post says, but that's not really true. The real hitters hit immediately and follow through as they take steps upward. Some evaluators at ranking services are loath to include any stats from a repeated level, as Fragoza has been doing this season. He's an older 19 at low A this year, and that's pretty good, so I wouldn't dismiss this year, but I'd be a little dubious. Unacknowledged? BA put him 12th on their hot sheet, a subjective ranking of the recent week for players who might have a chance. In there they say he "hasn't received much attention from evaluators" due to below average contact and chase rates. His chase rate is 20th percentile at low A, and his barrel rate is 32nd percentile. As Bill Rutherford says, "your stats are very respectable, you've done some solid work here, but it's not quite Ivy League now, is it?" Look, he has a chance if he can figure out how to not chase the breaking ball outside, the four seamer high, the sinker low, whatever it is. How often do minor leaguers figure this out? RARELY. Enjoy the stats for now, but realize that there's a major reason Aaron Sabato, Yunior Severino, and Kala'i Rosario don't have a chance in Hades of having an MLB career. They, too, couldn't figure out how to keep Minor League pitchers from constantly striking them out. Slash lines avg/obp/slg don't matter in the least if you can't hit (or lay off) all the pitches thrown to you in the minors. Major league pitchers will have you for breakfast. Right now the one and only thing Fragoza has going for him is his age. Young people can sometimes adjust. But when going forward he loses a full year to age, like Gabriel Gonzalez did at high A, e.g., that's pretty much an indication we shouldn't be expecting anything, especially without an MLB position.

LOL. I couldn't be less worried about a player haunting the Twins.

He makes some mistakes in the field, but there's a noticeable confidence and assuredness to his play there. It will come down to whether he can hit. He better, because I don't believe the shortstop coming behind him will.

He's 1B/COF/DH if he made it to the majors. The fact we know that much already is a good indication he'll be a DH who can hopefully play 1B. Also, there are concerns about his contact and chase rates. I think this is a cross-your-fingers type, and if there is any improvement in his current issue, it probably needs to happen before the end of 2027, at least in my experience. His age vs level is good, so there's some hope.

If the Twins don't promote him at all until sometime into next season (at least two weeks), it will provide them with the biggest prize of all...an extra year. Given that they would want to trade Jenkins with two years of control left, it's the difference between having him for five meaningful years instead of four. That's 25% more Jenkins.

I'm not sure what the right thing to do is, but I'd find it more thrilling to throw him the QO. Trading Joe Ryan, like they should if they can, would save them $$$ as would trading Caratini. And then it's a one year commitment with the possibility of trading him at the deadline.

I'd suggest one of the reasons a pitcher is at a certain arm slot prior to getting to the Twins was that it was the most comfortable (non-stressful) slot. That goes for anything else that is adjustable. So, imo, it seems there might be increased injury risk with a lot of these adjustments, not that it was necessarily injury-optimized prior. Just a concern I'd have if I were asked to make an adjustment.

Jackson likely has a shot at being the backup catcher next year if the Twins were to get Jeffers back on the QO and trade Caratini. Otherwise, I'd guess he's gone for good. Somebody likely will take a chance on him as a backup the rest of this season, and pretty much all teams would like him as a 3rd catcher, so whoever offers him a major league contract with "backup" as the intention is likely the winner.

LOL x 1000

So you say the Twins are ignoring Ross but also that Ross has a 26.3% K rate. It's pretty obvious the Twins are doing exactly the opposite of ignoring him. What do you think is a more predictive of success or failure at the MLB level: 1. An .842 OPS by a 25 yr old at one of the easiest parks in the minor leagues to hit in in a year where all the upper minors are hitting more? or 2. A 26.3% K rate by a 25 yr old non-power profile in AAA? (Spoiler: Ross should have a K rate of closer to 15% to even entertain the possibility of a call-up) Do you really believe the Twins might be ignoring Ross, or is this click-bait?

Four strikeouts in a game at low A is not something a first rounder does, much less a college guy, third pick in the draft. If this isn't concerning to someone, that someone doesn't understand what makes a good prospect and how absolutely rare this is. Low A for college first rounders is simply a place for the organization to keep an eye on the guy, make sure he's not a lemon, before moving up. Lackey has 15 Ks in 52 PA (29%), and at this level a college first rounder should have a K rate of around 10%

Well, it means no org was willing to have him on its 40 man roster, but otherwise why not?

Good thing there's no variation in pitching production.