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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    There's likely no win for the Twins in any scenario except the one where he's back before the trade deadline, and they get something good for him. which is somewhat questionable given the injury and their lack of ability to recognize and bargain for prospect talent. Foremost, the only possibility of Jeffers continuing on with the Twins is through the qualifying offer which overpays him for one year so that he doesn't have to be saddled with costing his new team a first round pick (which decreases his $$$). You can't do that yesterday, only in mid-November. Is that the best thing to do for $23 million, sign Ryan Jeffers, knowing he won't be part of the team after 2027? You hope to get a compensation pick by extending him the offer and having him choose another team, but there's a real danger he takes it, and you've just spent $23 million that won't help you when you might realistically be looking to compete. So, trade him by Aug 4. You'll (hopefully) get better than what a compensation pick would net you on average, and you don't carry the risk of using $23M on an aging catcher who won't be here after 2027. Of course it all changes if the injury scares all teams away, and it might. The swing does not come back immediately.
  2. twinstalker
    Not only do you need to trade Ryan, you need to do it asap. Injury risk is high, and if you can get a good package now, it's time. I'm not sure what people wanting to hold onto Ryan expect will happen with him, but the answer is that he'll be playing with some other team two years from now no matter what.
  3. twinstalker
    Actually, the only thing that's changed since the Twins traded for him is he's playing in the easiest ballparks to hit in. And if nothing's changed, are you saying that the Phillies gave up a top top prospect for Bader? No, he's very flawed. First, he's not a good athlete, and that's been a frequent acquisition of the Twins, and it's hurt them terribly. He's a bad fielder, period. And finally, he can't really hit the ball in the air. Mendez is a decent pick-up for Bader, but I wouldn't count chickens based on anything he's doing in St. Paul. I wouldn't rule out his being a decent MLB player, but he's a bit of a longshot.
  4. twinstalker
    So, I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Twins had an open spot for Lawrence. Did I miss something? Didn't we open a spot by DFAing SWR and close it by adding Paredes? If we had a spot open, what in the world did we dog SWR for? Aside from him currently sucking, of course.
  5. twinstalker
    The Rays are the smartest, the White Sox have gotten smart in the last few year. Neither team will therefore take Lackey. I'd say the Rays could take a pitcher, except taking a pitcher is the wrong thing to do here. The Twins will be stuck with a choice of Lackey (no thanks), Lombard, and the (hopefully) best pitcher.
  6. twinstalker
    SMH with St. Paul stats. The good ones mean nothing for hitters. The only stat to look at is K rate, and even that's going to appear better than it really is. Wichita, too.
  7. twinstalker
    Not a fan of taking Lackey. I'd rather take the best pitcher or maybe even Jacob Lombard, who is supposed to be better than his brother (a top ten overall prospect) was at the same stage. Georgia Tech catchers have been overrated for years. Also, I know it's a super small sample, but if you're worthy of the #3 pick in the draft, you probably don't go 3 for 25 in the Cape Cod League. You can disregard it, but really most college players' real value comes out in the CCBL. Lackey struck out 6 of 26 PA. For comparison, Cholowsky played there a full year younger and struck out 7 times in 65 PA. Georgia Tech is a hitters' paradise. Numbers are inflated big time, and it's only really behind Tennesse for big-time schools (a major reason I didn't like Billy Amick). You can't ignore this by hoping it's untrue or thinking this doesn't apply to a hitter you like or want. I would pass on Vahn Lackey and take Lombard or a top pitcher if both Cholowsky and Emerson are gone. And by the way, TB is flush in catching prospects, namely Nathan Flewelling, who is very likely better than Lackey. They're flush in shortstop prospects, too, though play them elsewhere, who cares. The biggest thing the Twins can hope for is that the Rays take the best pitcher and leave Roch or Grady for the Twins.
  8. twinstalker
    I would expect to see a trade here with this. It. Will. Not. Be. Much.
  9. twinstalker
    This. Dealing with caps is a great way to catch up if you're good at it. I have zero reason to believe the Twins would be good at it, given they way they draft. It's all game theory.
  10. twinstalker
    I would hope no one who saw the Twins just get beat up by the lowly Whiteys would think there is any reason to keep Ryan instead of getting real value for him. Do I trust the Twins to get real value for him? No, not really, but they lose him in the end anyway.
  11. twinstalker
    I found MT's article very interesting, as we're not sure problems are solved. I mean, Keaschall's looked plenty horrible at times in May.
  12. twinstalker
    My comment was going to be "Oh, good, more Marco Raya." How does someone get to be a prospect, apparently? 1. Have an embarrassed and biased organization say one thing good about him to try to save face after their horrible draft. 2. Close your eyes and keep them that way.
  13. twinstalker
    He was called up for a body vs lhp, not because he was ready. I think the alternative was James Outman. This has nothing to do with getting called up to see how you'll do. Thus far he's doing pretty badly in AAA. I could hit HRs in St. Paul while squaring to bunt.
  14. twinstalker
    You think they're frustrated with his ability to stay healthy, wait until they see his ability to hit.
  15. twinstalker
    Holy crap. Lewis has figured it out! Finally. And to think the key to hitting well was simply to face AAA pitching. If he can bring that to MLB, he'll be unstoppable.
  16. twinstalker
    There is something very positively different about this team, and I'm afraid to go there as to why, at least until we see how the summer goes. But the ABs are better, the starting pitching is better, and the defense is seemingly getting better after being the worst last year and early this year. A lot of this might have to do with the manager change, I don't know. Certainly, the tolerance for bad defense seems less so than the Rocco years that spiraled into the Anti-Twins Way.
  17. twinstalker
    I think Buxton aggravated his injury, and who knows when he's back in CF. They certainly wouldn't have given him an off day here. He just got back, and he's only DHing. I'm afraid Keaschall is hurt, and it may be something bad? Friday he's 2-4 with a HBP, then he sits Saturday and Sunday? Yeah, I do believe he needs to sit and watch for a while, but if you're going to do it, it's probably not after a game like Friday. I may have missed a really bad defensive play that factors into this, I don't know Otherwise, I''m wondering if he didn't hurt his forearm on that HBP?
  18. twinstalker
    What I see happening is the Twins trying to optimize things for this year. Lewis and Wallner are down, Keaschall has reduced ABs, Lee is moved. The fan in me thinks that makes sense, except the bullpen is cr@p, the rotation will be very thin, the catchers can't hit, and the one thing the Twins can do about that is to hold on to Ryan, which would be the dumb thing to do. Even knowing that they'd get killed by another playoff team, the race for the playoffs makes the season fun and seemingly more meaningful. The cynic in me knows this team has no chance. They're trying to fool the fans for as long as possible until they fall apart due to inevitable injuries, slowdown, and regression for some of the surprises. They can only hit in CF and, for now, in the corner outfield. The utility guys (Kreidler, Gray, and Arcia) are not anything but what they are, and they will settle in to a .225 average as a group with modest power and little on-base. Lee needs to play every day, Keaschall needs to play every day, in Lee's case to see if there's anything there. The Twins need to trade Ryan and Jeffers, Ryan because his trade value drops substantially if you don't deal him by the deadline. Also, he'll almost inevitably get hurt, and we just saw how that can happen with both him and even Jeffers. I saw yesterday the Twins, empirically, have a 15% chance to make the playoffs. That doesn't account for what's bound to happen to this team that will not or cannot be fixed, like losing Prielipp from the rotation (due to innings limitations) or just normal injuries. So if it's truly a 5-10% chance, that's definitely not enough to change the overriding strategy.
  19. twinstalker
    Gawd, I hope not. There are two guys who are a clear cut above. I pray the Twins take advantage if one of Cholowsky or Emerson drops.
  20. twinstalker
    I don't think I'd get much argument that Lewis' three home runs this far mean nothing. I'd much rather see this after he continued to struggle for a bit. To go down and immediately hit HRs probably means he has the look of a AAAA player and simply can't hit MLB pitching. I'd rather see that he can't hit AAA either, because then we'd know he's all messed up rather than just not good enough for MLB. Oof.
  21. twinstalker
    Oh, yeah, Polanco. I'm not sure there was ever anything we traded Polanco for besides Gonzalez. This is what the trade was all about. You'd have hoped to get more (a good Topa?), but Gabby is what the trade was for. Unfortunately, he has to hit a ton to make up for his defense and be close to as good as Polanco. Twins saved 10.5 million by getting rid of PL, so in theory, they don't need a ton from Gonzalez, just a good bat vs lhp who isn't bad in the COF, a short-side platoon guy.
  22. twinstalker
    I don't think Puckett's third year has anything to do with this. And this is not going to happen. He's back in AAA in a couple of days because, well, AAA is something he hasn't conquered yet. St. Paul is super misleading for hitters, and his stats kinda suck there as is. He is a bit of a wild card, though. I'd like to see him in August.
  23. twinstalker
    Well, can't trade him, really. Note sure they even should if they could get a lot. However, Braves do have prospects. Cam Caminiti JR Ritchie Eric Hartman Tate Southisene
  24. twinstalker
    I was drinking an expensive beer, and now part of it has been snorted onto my laptop. I'll give you this: very slightly interesting in SSS collection.
  25. twinstalker
    He's 26 with a 25% K rate without a power profile putting up slash lines in two of the top hitters parks in all of minor league baseball. I don't know the underlying metrics, but my guess is they're not loud in a good way. So this seems very similar to Keirsey's situation, where most of this board wanted him to get a chance, and the Twins reportedly scoffed at the idea that he had any real value when asked if they were afraid of losing him in Rule V. So, yeah, put Fedko on the 40 and call him up, but the next step then is to DFA him, probably, to open a spot. Fedko is probably a guy who could make a bit of a living in St. Paul, go home in the offseason to mom and dad, and show up in ST. At least for a couple of year, if he wanted to.
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