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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. Holy crap "BP...the industry standard on prospects" is about the silliest line I've ever read. They are closer to if not precisely the industry joke. Not kidding. I mean, many believe Kanye West was the best choice for President, so your statement is probably true in that sense. But BP is not nearly the industry standard and in fact has a difficult time retaining anybody worthy of evaluating prospects. The evaluators there are charged with one mission in ranking prospects: make a splash.
  2. I'll take him but only if the Twin Cities media doesn't do any stories on his issues back in 2006 or whenever. So tired of reading the same stories you could just link to from their last team.
  3. I like the Freeland experiment, pretty much done with the Weaver family, and Odorizzi does little for me but obviously would be better than what they have now. I'm not giving up anybody, really, for any of these guys. I'd probably give them Wander Javier-type value.
  4. If I were ranking #1, I think I'd go with Miranda. That could certainly be wrong, but it's really difficult to speculate anymore that Lewis was anything but a poor pick, and Austin Martin appears to have plenty of issues. I think Miranda gives you a Kirby Puckett-like hitter (in terms of swing rate and contact) with similar power. I think that's being underrated by just about everybody. But I'm not 100% confident in this assessment relative to his competitors. One thing I'm relatively confident about is that Celestino will be better than Noah Miller.
  5. Well, I'd have a difficult time ranking a guy almost guaranteed to miss most of the season with TJS as your top pitching prospect. The Twins will have wasted a whole year with Canterino and Duran by not convincing those guys to go that direction. So, let's see. Canterino was at high A in 2021. He'll likely have TJS early this season and miss this year and most (probably all) of 2023. He spends 2024 at AA trying to get his control and command back. In 2025 he starts at AAA and we see whether he's MLB ready at that time. If he's still a starter. This all could have been sped up by a year.
  6. These lists (this and prospect lists) are the wrong direction. We know who the top guy is, or we know he's top 1, 2, or 3; it's not a big deal. Lead with that guy. Gleeman got it right on his Twins top 40.
  7. Boy, I find it really difficult to swallow Rosario being a better hitting prospect than Celestino. It seems there's a pretty wide gap in the other direction. Look at Celestino's walk and K rates in the high minors compared to Rosario's in the complex league. Plus, Celestino is a quality defender. It's not close, if you ask me. And Celestino has seen breaking balls. Why are ages not included in these things? Otherwise, thanks!
  8. I say spend the rest on more hitting prospects and better batting instructors. Or better scouts.
  9. 40% of the time at the level he's at now is just about worth the $15 million.
  10. David Ortiz was easily the Twins best hitter, and I screamed and screamed at the time, but no one heard me. He was just going into his prime age. It was an absolute no-brainer to keep him. Shame on the Twins community for not recognizing this, and, as for Ryan, he'd already shown severe incompetence, but this was the final straw for me. My take was that Jacque Jones was the guy to get rid of. He had trade value, and he did not have the predictives that portended a good future. Pew, Terry Ryan, pew!
  11. How about this? Sign him for 1 year if the money you give him doesn't affect any other decisions. Duran and Canterino are going to lose 2022 to TJS, though apparently the Twins are intent on including 2023 as well. The Twins need a pitcher to eat innings
  12. I don't think any of these guys are the next Ober. Ober had supreme command for a minor leaguer, and it's translated to very good command in his first MLB stint. It's also why he has a chance to be very, very good going forward, because "very good" command is going to return to "great." That's just not going to happen with others.
  13. You never judge a trade on its results, but you can always ask how it worked out. Maeda pitched a quality 9 weeks, not a whole season in 2020 (well, whatever). This trade is still tbd as to which team got the best out of it. Graterol had his TJS already, so that's no small thing, and it will help him become much more valuable than Maeda, I believe. Maeda's been good for 9 weeks plus a few this year. Graterol should catch up to that and surpass it.
  14. The Twins are horribly thin. I doubt any of those players is the #1. It likely will be someone even the Twins org doesn't expect. Perhaps Emmanuel Rodriguez. It's clear the new Twins regime has some pitching development prowess. I'm not seeing it with hitting. They got Miranda to stop chasing, so that's good, but I don't see them doing a great scouting job or development job on their hitters from rookie leagues to MLB, even adjusted for tough hitting parks in A ball.
  15. If you think Duran is not going to need TJS (Canterino, too), you're fooling yourself just like the Twins are. How many years are they going to waste "rehabbing?" These guys have it now, they can be pitching in the instructionals next fall. Put it off until you see he can't pitch next year, and you lose 2023 as well.
  16. Thanks. I do want to point out that the convention for a slash line is avg/obp/slg, not ops in that last slot. I thought Morales was slugging .822. Besides that, OPS is a meaningless number. Adding two fractions that have different units means nothing.
  17. Pick one: Chase Petty or Josh Winder. Not one reasonable, objective person would pick Petty. Maybe in a couple years if everything goes great for Petty after he plays his first year of full-season ball, sure. Right now he throws hard.
  18. Ober has 4/5 stuff and could be 1/2 in a rotation. Kyle Hendricks and Greg Maddux outpitched their "stuff," and it was due to great command and changing speeds effectively. Ober has these traits, along with another these two guys prominently have: composure. I can't think of another Twins prospect over the years who fits this description. Maybe Radke. I think Ober is Radke good if the arm holds up. A big if, of course. Barnes is nothing...he may eat some innings. Jax is sort of interesting, though. I haven't really formed an opinion on him. I certainly didn't think much of him until recently. Reviewing his stats, it does appear he learns well and adjusts to his competition. I suppose it's possible he could spend years in the 4/5 spot and turn into what Pineda has turned into, though from very different origins.
  19. LOL at Miller being 15 and Strotman being 14. Strotman has never shown much, but Miller hasn't shown the slightest, and he was generally ranked pretty low for where the Twins took him. I wouldn't even put Chase Petty this high, not that he has any better resume.
  20. Listing a high school pitcher is pretty funny. I can virtually guarantee they will not go that direction two years in a row.
  21. Maybe, but he was not projected for much power when he was considered the 2nd best prospect in the draft.
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