Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

twinstalker

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,563

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I didn't look at Diaw, but Houston does strike out too much. You have to adjust what's acceptable by a player's power profile, and Houston's power profile is weak-ish. He should have a K rate of around 15%, and it's 21% at AA. Lee and Culpepper, same age at AA, were both somewhat more powerful and struck out considerably less at 16% and 18%, respectively (Culpepper's was also at 15-16% until a weird end of year swoon at AA; it appeared he tired significantly). This may seem like little difference, but for non-power infielders, it's huge. That 5% difference is exaggerated by MLB pitchers. Meanwhile, Wichita slash lines are going to mask how good or not good a hitter is, so you get little in the way of information from that.
  2. twinstalker
    Many players who will never be good start well. In all my criticism of Rodriguez, I've always mentioned that as a possibility. I even think it's remotely possible he'll start well in 2027, given he's only had three weeks or so. I'm pretty confident where he'll end up, and I would strongly recommend the Twins trade him.
  3. twinstalker
    Roden played first base in 2025 spring training after hitting many meatballs and Toronto thinking they may need to make room for him. I don't think they liked what they saw, plus Roden slowed down. That's not to say it's not worth a shot.
  4. twinstalker
    Why would you ever extend a young pitcher? I mean there might be cases where you guarantee salary to get a team option on the first free agent year. Culpepper showed a little, may not be good. Probably a player but not a star. Taj is being considered here with no mention of his arbitration/free agency status? He's in his first year of three arbitration years. Usually at this point with pitchers, only misguided extensions will be considered by their agents. Jenkins is represented by Boras. There will not be an extension unless the Twins overpay by a lot. That said, it might not be a bad idea. He'll be better than any other player on the team. Prielipp is an injured pitcher. As Pablo says, you get only about 5-6 from TJS until it's going to be needed again. Keaschall is a nice players without a proper defensive spot to take advantage of the type of hitter he is. Yeah, extend him. Lewis was never an obvious extension candidate, not that it mattered with Boras. He certainly wasn't the type you'd overpay, like Jenkins may well be. EmRod isn't worth anything. I'd guess he won't be hanging in the majors by the time his free agency years kick in. Even the Twins are smart enough to have traded him if some team valued him as somebody who they would extend. Miranda and Wallner weren't candidates. What's your criterion, that Twins Daily overrated them? I would engage Boras on Jenkins, let him set his price, and match it or move on. 99% that means moving on. Keaschall is probably cheaper and worth extending.
  5. twinstalker
    Yeah, couldn't listen but looked him up. It doesn't really add up to much unless he improves considerably (relative to level). He's got the appearance of passivity (many have this), and he strikes out too much for his age* and power profile. There is really nothing to look at here from an MLB perspective, but I can see how anyone who doesn't look horrible in this system might therefore look appealing. Overall, if there are particulars to his situation that could make a difference, his debut could provide a good launching point. *the effect of age here is lessened by it being in his first year in pro ball and for whatever reason in 2026 not playing in college and summer league.
  6. twinstalker
    Nothing to see here. K rate too high for most of these guys to ever be anything. Almanzar obviously just took advantage of the FCL pitchers' inability to throw strikes. That not a prospect. The one with some potential was traded for...well, nothing, ultimately, as expected.
  7. twinstalker
    It's important to note that TTO "prospects" pretty much never turn into TTO MLB players. And that's why I've been adamant that EmRod will not be a good major league player (to be nice). Foremost, walks mean nothing in the minors except helping to win minor league guess. Second, high strikeout rates pretty much make a "prospect" a non-prospect. The former is not predictive, except in the negative, while the latter is very predictive. For the most part, TTO MLB guys were much, much better in the minors than EmRod. They walked at a normal rate (they weren't passive), they struck out at a reasonable rate for their power profile (not 26-35%), and, frankly, they hit the ball out of the park more. Actually, they hit for better average, too.
  8. twinstalker
    I wouldn't include Ross. He hasn't "made" it.
  9. twinstalker
    So they weren't strong numbers, because context is everything, and the context implied he wasn't draftable. Yeah, he's old, which sometimes can be excused by being in your first year in MiLB and being promoted, but once again it comes down to K rate. It's the one true indicator. While there is some nuance to the proper analysis here, Brown is striking out at a 25% rate at age 24 ( a really old 24). Massaging that however you want, it's doubtful he's a major league prospect. If he crushes next year AAA with suddenly a 17% K rate, which is incredibly unlikely, then we take another look.
  10. twinstalker
    The Twins were offered Franklin Arias and Peyton Tolle for Ryan in a year that was over and before the next season in which they had no realistic chance to compete in. What do you think?
  11. twinstalker
    The Twins have a crowded rotation, and Zebby Matthews hasn’t done enough to secure a spot in it. A move to the bullpen could be the best solution for everyone involved. The above is all true. The best solution otherwise might be leaving him in the rotation. He has the pitches to be a starter. Early this season I deemed talk of him moving to the bullpen as laughable, compared to giving him this season. I think now it's an argument.
  12. twinstalker
    Good story. Unfortunately, there's a good chance two people took their seats and were killed. I hope not, but it's likely.
  13. twinstalker
    Why are we talking about Marek Houston?
  14. twinstalker
    How would this possibly matter? The least important job in the whole organization might be manager. However, if he continues to attempt sacrifice bunts, I'll call for his dismissal. Actually perpetrating acts which are easily identified as lowering the probability of a win is worthy of being fired.
  15. twinstalker
    What Happens After the Twins Draft a Player? Buyer's remorse.
  16. twinstalker
    They sure could use him next year, which, besides it being only a one-year commitment, is reason in itself to offer it. Assuming Lackey is good, which is not a given, they need a bridge. While I doubt Jeffers accepts the QO, sometimes players do it to rid themselves of the downside of it the following year. But who knows what the CBA brings.
  17. twinstalker
    The minor league ball is ridiculous this year.
  18. twinstalker
    And that other minor thing: Performance. Right now he hasn't shown he can hit and his strikeout rate is high (and his walk rate doesn't matter in the least). Post-draft performance isn't always representative for plenty of reasons. I'm giving him a mulligan on this season, but he'll be playing against lesser competition than he should to start next year, then when promoted he'll be playing in one or two of the easiest minor league parks to hit in. If he's not destroying next year, it does not bode well.
  19. twinstalker
    This is a sad list. While several of the names below him should be higher, there is a cliff after #6 and before Rodriguez.. And actually, Zebby Matthews and Luke Keaschall should EASILY be top 8 before the cliff, well before any of the rest of the guys and along with the current top six. (I'm talking about how good of prospects they really were, not just mistakes on the prospect lists). I wrote a long response here on the issues of the ranking services but will spare you. Some of them are just starting to get better, namely Baseball America among the well-known, but they still make systematic mistakes. Emmanuel Rodriguez has been among their biggest.
  20. twinstalker
    Or any one of them ever being dominant over any sustained period.
  21. twinstalker
    Um, the Twins were supposed to win about 75 games, and they've lost their best hitter and best pitcher in the second half.
  22. twinstalker
    Because you think he's good?
  23. twinstalker
    Rosario: 2026 K rate 31% ------> 40% in MLB. He's not a real prospect. We've been through this before with Severino. These guys are organization guys.
  24. twinstalker
    If you weren't going to keep him down all year, the Twins were absolutely stupid to not trade Larnach to the Astros when they came back with interest after blowing up the Abreu trade. Pride is a terrible thing.
  25. twinstalker
    100 PA is nothing, but it's pretty obvious even from the basic B-R stat line that he's changed something to his benefit that may or may not be temporary and due to no A+ book on him. Unfortunately, the Bayesian prior for rh college 1B is incredibly poor. It will take a lot of consistent non-chasing, high zone contact through next season. He'll need to move up quickly to stay in the proper age vs level zone for any real kind of prospect. Keep an eye on the K rate. If K/PA stays around 17%-18% while producing good power and moving up, he could be a prospect.
×
×
  • Create New...