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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I don't think I'd get much argument that Lewis' three home runs this far mean nothing. I'd much rather see this after he continued to struggle for a bit. To go down and immediately hit HRs probably means he has the look of a AAAA player and simply can't hit MLB pitching. I'd rather see that he can't hit AAA either, because then we'd know he's all messed up rather than just not good enough for MLB. Oof.
  2. twinstalker
    Oh, yeah, Polanco. I'm not sure there was ever anything we traded Polanco for besides Gonzalez. This is what the trade was all about. You'd have hoped to get more (a good Topa?), but Gabby is what the trade was for. Unfortunately, he has to hit a ton to make up for his defense and be close to as good as Polanco. Twins saved 10.5 million by getting rid of PL, so in theory, they don't need a ton from Gonzalez, just a good bat vs lhp who isn't bad in the COF, a short-side platoon guy.
  3. twinstalker
    I don't think Puckett's third year has anything to do with this. And this is not going to happen. He's back in AAA in a couple of days because, well, AAA is something he hasn't conquered yet. St. Paul is super misleading for hitters, and his stats kinda suck there as is. He is a bit of a wild card, though. I'd like to see him in August.
  4. twinstalker
    Well, can't trade him, really. Note sure they even should if they could get a lot. However, Braves do have prospects. Cam Caminiti JR Ritchie Eric Hartman Tate Southisene
  5. twinstalker
    I was drinking an expensive beer, and now part of it has been snorted onto my laptop. I'll give you this: very slightly interesting in SSS collection.
  6. twinstalker
    He's 26 with a 25% K rate without a power profile putting up slash lines in two of the top hitters parks in all of minor league baseball. I don't know the underlying metrics, but my guess is they're not loud in a good way. So this seems very similar to Keirsey's situation, where most of this board wanted him to get a chance, and the Twins reportedly scoffed at the idea that he had any real value when asked if they were afraid of losing him in Rule V. So, yeah, put Fedko on the 40 and call him up, but the next step then is to DFA him, probably, to open a spot. Fedko is probably a guy who could make a bit of a living in St. Paul, go home in the offseason to mom and dad, and show up in ST. At least for a couple of year, if he wanted to.
  7. twinstalker
    The promotion means nothing, given the choice was between two OFers who aren't ready. What he does with it does matter. Tolle tried to get him to chase, and he didn't chase. That was impressive, though it also could have been the mentality of "don't do anything stupid," meaning he was making sure the ball was going to cross the plate before swinging. I think that made him late. Maybe a short stint in MLB will propel GG to start hitting better at AAA.
  8. twinstalker
    First, I scramble to find a second definition for platonic. Hang on... Okay, it's not platonic we're talking about but platonic ideal. I learned a new phrase! It's arguable, though, that it fits with leadoff man. I suppose a case can be made. Damn, now I sort of realize I shouldn't have been skimming so many of the articles.
  9. twinstalker
    I don't know whether the numbers are available, but imagine an average of $50 per subscriber per year. I wouldn't be shocked if he has 2,000+ subscribers. Then do something similar with Patreon subscribers, of which there are about 6,500 and the $$$ are split evenly with Bonnes. I'd venture to say he's risking living on a measly $250k at a minimum. I'd say making that kind of money, beholden to nobody, and living your dream is a pretty good gig. He's earned it. Plus, he can likely pick up some freelance work if he wanted it.
  10. twinstalker
    Hardly. You're looking at the wrong numbers. Or maybe you're right, and the Twins are the ones looking at the wrong numbers.
  11. twinstalker
    His K rate is the easy thing to see that is wrong right now (yeah, it's likely the chase rate). It's currently slight over 24% at A+ at age 19. Last year at low A age 18, it was 19%. That's a pretty big difference and the wrong direction. Tait's going to hit well at AA and AAA because they're bandboxes, so unless his K rate goes down considerably, it might turn out he's just a mediocre player, not too dissimilar to Diego Cartaya, another young prospect. Tait's slightly younger than Cartaya, so there's more hope there, but the danger remains. That chase rate has to be fixed or there's going to be nothing to see here. I've seen no evidence that the Twins can take raw hitting talent and fix the flaws. Zero evidence.
  12. twinstalker
    I gotta admit, it's rare for me to read a word I don't know, especially on a site like this. Maybe Britt Robson. To pat myself on the back, I did guess the meaning if was an actual word -- awkwardly climb. Mostly because I couldn't imagine anything else given the use of "perch" and "ledge" and "Topa." I once was Topa, clambering to to get up a cliff to safety until I finally decided I wasn't going to make it and this was going to be the end. Only...literally, unlike Topa. As I started to slide to my death, a woman named Stephanie saved me by cupping her hands and catching my foot just long enough for me to find a better foothold and path to the top. Topa could have used a Stephanie. Maybe his Stephanie is called St. Paul.
  13. twinstalker
    At some point in the next nine weeks they will begin going without Jeffers for eternity.
  14. twinstalker
    They can put Abel on the 60-day, since he's not going to be back before then, and that will open a spot. Or drop one of many horrible players.
  15. twinstalker
    Why do you think? It's a good question with, I think, a simple answer. Not an answer people want to hear.
  16. twinstalker
    Counterpoints: 1. Jenkins is probably unlikely to stay healthy. 2. No one is saying Houston is the best defensive fielder in the league (to be). The Twins defense is just so bad that anybody who bats bad enough to be considered a glove-first infielder seems appealing if you don't think about it too hard. 3. Culpepper has put up decent numbers in two of the easiest parks to hit in in the minors. Do not trust the batting slash. Someone ready for the majors would be absolutely killing it at CHS, and he's not. His K rates aren't horrible, but they're not great, either. He seems average at best as he settles in as an MLBer. Very likely a second division player, which is where I place Brooks Lee, and which is what has proven out. 4. Your infield doesn't make sense. Keaschall will have to be there, and he can only play 2B. They won't have him in the outfield, because they need the extra hitting. I suppose it's possible he's at 1B, but it seems more likely Lee or Culpepper is moving around the infield. Personally, I have my doubts Houston is a major leaguer. If the Twins don't learn how to identify, draft, and develop hitting without lucking or sucking into a top pick, they'll soon be playing the Arcias of the world. 4.
  17. twinstalker
    This has been bugging me for a while. The two are independent, sort of. Walks and strikeouts are not either/or options. Other pairings are similarly absurd: homer vs gdp, SBs vs 2Bs. Walk rate in the minors is good or not good depending on how close it is to the 10-14% range. K rate is good when it's low, generally, though too low could be troublesome in some respects. But K rate is almost always over 15%. So what BB > K says most always is that the K rate is low. Which we could just say, and I do, though what's low and what's not low depends on a lot of factors, namely age vs level. Good hitters will not walk at very high rates. Walk rate in the minors should be around 12% for the best prospects. Some are walking at a 20-25% rate. That's simply passivity, and everything above 15% is a degree of passivity that is rewarded now and is meaningless projecting to the majors, at least in a positive way and, hence, misleading. Once I learned how meaningful K rate is and how misleading BB rate is, I've never used the two together. That's for minors. It's different in the majors, where walks lead to winning games. (They do in the minors, too, but the point of all minors' stat analysis is projecting to the majors)
  18. twinstalker
    I've expected him to be a big part of the rotation. I've thought he had the potential to be the Twins best starter. I keep mocking when someone mentions the bullpen wrt him. But then people keep thinking K. Rosario and Y. Severino types are real prospects, so I should be kinder.
  19. twinstalker
    He's the best ever.
  20. twinstalker
    They clearly have given power to incompetence in the drafting (hitters) area. Nobody fully gets what is important, and so they have a farm system full of guys who will never be good at the MLB level. I have no idea what they're looking at. They got lucky getting the 5th pick and Walker Jenkins. Could have screwed that up but didn't. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. They got lucky with Keaschall (we think), and were maybe the one team that thought a hitter (Jeffers) could catch. That's in nine years. They have no idea what they're looking for. If Cholowsky and Emerson are both gone, I'm reasonably sure any hitter they take will be a relative bust. Those two are relatively bust-proof. I've heard the same on Lackey, but track record (Georgia Tech's catchers) not good and track record (for Lackey himself) suggests he's a pop-up player whose regression could be all the way back to someone you'd take in early rounds, not with early picks, meaning his range of outcomes could be wide and varied. I'd probably take the safe pitcher whose almost certain outcome is "lots better than" Kyle Gibson. Otherwise, I know two things: George Lombard is consider a top prospect in the game. Jacob Lombard is considered better at the same stage than his brother. Twins can probably ruin that with their "development" team, but maybe it's as simple as this. Picking Lackey isn't idiotic, but I'd shy away from it.
  21. twinstalker
    Houston is 22 playing in A+ with a non-power profile striking out 22% of the time. Exactly what about him is worthy of rising up the ladder? The hitting stats he's put up are the least that would be expected of a first rounder at his age playing in high A the year after being drafted. The strikeout rate will kill him. Raya and DeBarge were never top 20 prospects in my book for reasons laid out previously. DeBarge was a wasted pick. You have to be able to hit in college to hit in MLB, and not just against the small school pitching you saw. He couldn't touch the better ones when they played bigger schools. It matters.
  22. twinstalker
    Rarely is a pitcher less risky than a position player at #3, but that's what we've got. Lackey is a good college player who will follow his former GT catchers into overrated oblivion.
  23. twinstalker
    91.
  24. twinstalker
    Well, this pretty much says it all. Twins apparently aren't afraid of drafting bad defense, either.
  25. twinstalker
    This is good for Dasan. Sometimes a guy who relies solely on his natural ability needs to be humbled, and my guess is this is what's happened. Why learn something if you know you can do it better your way? Now he has to listen to his coaches, and he will understand that others know things he doesn't. That's my take. May be off, but I get the feeling it's in the ballpark.
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