Dear Pohlads: Don't Do This

[Eric Blonigen]

For many fans, the 2024 trade deadline serves as an inflection point for their Twins fandom. What happens over the next 36 hours—whether the Pohlads allow for spending at the deadline—could either bring them back into the fold, or push them further away, potentially past the point of no return.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Any longtime fan of the Twins has heard multiple variations of “cheap Pohlads” hundreds of times, often with good reason. For decades, the Twins were known throughout baseball as misers. Former GM Terry Ryan took pride in not spending his entire budget each offseason. The Twins constantly referred to themselves as a small-market team, despite being in a firmly mid-size media market. By the way, the Pohlads are roughly baseball’s 10th-richest owners.

For a while, ownership appeared to be turning the corner, getting payroll to a league-average level, making surprisingly aggressive free-agent signings for guys like Carlos Correa, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Donaldson, and signing Byron Buxton and Pablo López to long-term extensions. These decisions bought a measure of trust and goodwill from the fans, because they seemed like down payments on long-term growth toward the middle of the league in payroll.

However, at the onset of this past offseason, they went on record saying they needed to “right-size” payroll, and that they had been “losing money,” despite the team value skyrocketing as an asset.

They proceeded to trim $30 million in payroll compared to 2023, and hinted that further future cuts are likely. The Twins began the 2024 season with the 20th-highest payroll, despite being the 15th-largest media market. The lowly Royals, with the 34th-largest media market in the U.S. at their disposal, are 16th in payroll and are planning on spending at the deadline.

 

Naturally, on the heels of a division-winning season in which the Twins broke their playoff losing streak, this infuriated fans, and rightfully so. Likewise, the Twins' (supposed) commitment to making it easier for fans to watch games, then re-upping with Bally, turned some fans away. The Bally/Comcast disagreement leading to most local fans being unable to watch games through cable providers this season has led many nearly to a breaking point. Not making significant signings or trades this offseason, other than offloading a beloved veteran in Jorge Polanco, disgusted still others.

While the purpose of any business is to make money, fans are not stockholders, and it’s a mistake for ownership to treat them as such. Fans attend, watch (hah), or listen to games night after night because they care. Because they believe. Because they want to be a part of something wonderful. Baseball exists for the fans.

If the fans believe that ownership doesn’t care about them (or about fielding a team that can win the World Series), then why should they care about the team? Why not watch the Olympics instead? Why not go to a Loons game? At this point, it’s unclear that ownership cares. Instead, they reference declining attendance as a reason for declining payroll, putting the blame on the fans. That is a shortsighted mistake.

Over the past few days, we have seen the Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, and Orioles all make moves to improve their playoff odds. The Royals, Astros, and Rangers are all publicly linked to big-name players. The Twins haven’t been publicly linked to anyone. Nobody.

Any savvy business owner is well-served by considering not just the short-term profit-and-loss statement, but also the long-term outlook and health of their organization. Ownership has demonstrated this understanding in the past, when they were one of the first teams in 2020 to announce they were keeping all staff hired and paid. They have also made significant investments into player amenities, offering daycare services to players’ families and ensuring that free agents will want to sign here. Remember the Nelson Cruz nap room?

The time is now to continue to invest in the long-term health of the franchise, by proving to fans that winning and the fan experience are as important as the bottom line of the balance sheet. Make the trades that allow for keeping pace with the Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Astros, Guardians, Royals, and Rangers. Get the frontline starter and setup-caliber lefty that will push the team over the hump. Show the fans that the goal is playing meaningful games deep into October.

Fail to do so, and the Pohlads are setting the stage for fan apathy, further declines in attendance, and a long-term shrinking of the fan base. This type of payroll constraint can create a vicious cycle that will disenchant fans for years to come.

You have to turn the boat around, Joe. You're turning from what looks like tough weather toward a fatal iceberg. Be bold, and brave the stormy seas. It's not too late for that, but you have little time left to change course. Otherwise, you'll sink this ship in cold, calm water, with the masses who stand ready to help out of range and losing interest.

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What do you think? Will a lack of trade at the deadline push you further away as a fan? Or do you think the Pohlads will approve the payroll to swing for the fences? Comment below!

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[TL]

Don’t sacrifice the future. Any starter better than Ober, Lopez or Ryan will likely cost a lot (even for a rental). I am not in favor of giving up 6 years of Keaschall or Festa (or both!) for 3 months of a #4 starter or even 1 year and 3 months. This team will get expensive quickly and at some point we may want to restock the farm by trading a player or two getting close to free agency to keep this thing going for a decade. 

[Patzky]

Goodwill does not come cheap, no matter what the neighborhood thrift store says. Go find Jeffers' quote from this weekend about team spending.

[USAFChief]

23 minutes ago, TL said:

Don’t sacrifice the future. Any starter better than Ober, Lopez or Ryan will likely cost a lot (even for a rental). I am not in favor of giving up 6 years of Keaschall or Festa (or both!) for 3 months of a #4 starter or even 1 year and 3 months. This team will get expensive quickly and at some point we may want to restock the farm by trading a player or two getting close to free agency to keep this thing going for a decade. 

OK, Mr Pohlad.

[Cory Engelhardt]

26 minutes ago, TL said:

Don’t sacrifice the future. Any starter better than Ober, Lopez or Ryan will likely cost a lot (even for a rental). I am not in favor of giving up 6 years of Keaschall or Festa (or both!) for 3 months of a #4 starter or even 1 year and 3 months. This team will get expensive quickly and at some point we may want to restock the farm by trading a player or two getting close to free agency to keep this thing going for a decade. 

If you aren’t going to push some chips once in a while, are you even playing the game?

Better way to word it, if you aren’t going to go for it this year, when will you ever go for it?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Wouldn't be shocked if Falvey and Levine move Kepler to free up some salary so that they can upgrade the rotation and/or bullpen.

[arby58]

The X post indicates that the Twins are 16th in baseball in terms of percentage of revenue devoted to payroll - and just a fraction from 15th. That suggests 'mid-market' to me, and the various statistical gyrations to suggest they aren't meeting payroll expectations aren't all that impressive. Media market size, for example doesn't really matter other than what you can get in payment from media for broadcasting the team, and we've seen that $ eroding, not growing.

As that graph suggests, payroll doesn't necessarily translate into great results - witness the two teams at the top of the payroll as a percentage of revenue. Last year, the top three teams in terms of payroll all missed the play-offs. There are lots of other areas of investment that are also important, including the farm system. The Twins have pretty consistently ranked in the upper half (or better) for farm systems. They are turning out some pretty good young talent, and it appears more is on the way. 

Sure, a 'big splash' would be great (wait, wasn't that Correa?), but making the play-offs on a pretty consistent basis is a decent product, which is what the mid-market Twins have done of late.

[Thebigalguy]

We have what it takes to win right now. We don’t need no stinking trades. Let’s get it done.

[CRF]

Very few ownership groups, in any sport, understand that in order to make money, and continue to make money, they have to spend it on their teams occasionally. That's what generates interest and brings fans to the stadiums, sells merch, etc. They have to show fans that they're willing to spend and upgrade the team.  That doesn't mean blow the luxury tax out of the water, but show that they want to win. No one believes billionaires crying poverty. It's a bad look.  

[Whitey333]

I don't anticipate any trades of any significance for the Twins.  At least not in a positive sense.  I could see them dumping some salary for prospects.  But like always they blame everything on the fans.  Great timely story.  Well done.

[MMMordabito]

Fixing the TV deal is way more important in terms of retaining the fan base than making trade deadline deals. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

Payroll flexibility is the big question. Are the Pohlad’s willing to spend some money at the deadline that might extend into future years? If so, then go get Blake Snell and pay the prospect capital required and you’ve got at least this year and next to win a World Series with a rotation that is near the top of the league. If we can’t add payroll then roll with what we have. We don’t need to dump salary to being in a 3-4 starter that might not be better than what SWR has given us. The lineup should be able to score enough runs to win.

[Trov]

I was listening to sports talk show the other day, national show, forget which one off top of head.  They talked about that in sports, most owners actually lose money in the day to day operation of a team, but make it up on the sale of the team.  I get annoyed with all these post and articles about how the Twins can, and need to spend more.  It has been going on for years, since the 90's.  Then even when we spend the fans still complain because team comes out and says sorry we are spending too much now and some of our long term revenue is shrinking.  

I would read article about how much money the Padres spent, but yet they did nothing and they had to take out a loan to pay their payroll and had to sell Soto for pennies on the dollar because they could not afford him. If fans are upset at payroll, then stop watching and stop supporting team.  Supporting team and complaining about how it is ran will not affect anything. 

[Vanimal46]

Ownership has been consistent since January. They’re right sizing the budget. Dan Hayes wrote another article yesterday that the Twins are not in a position to take on significant salary. 

A trade isn’t going to bring more people to the ballpark. Getting them back on TV ASAP needs to be the #1 priority. 

[JD-TWINS]

I agree that a move of some sort would help Fandom’s attitude and may help the Club if it’s the right move. I too do not see being able to add a starter better than SWR, let alone any of the Top 3 guys. Not enough guys fit this profile & the 3-4 guys that might will cost too much in prospect capital &/or $…..just the way it is.

To me Fedde - Crochet - Skubal are guys that are not getting traded within the A.L. Central……,that makes the remaining list of choices pretty short.

LH pitcher for Pen (T. Scott) OR just another high end contributor to the Pen (Fairbanks) would be huge!!

That stuff said, Calvin Griffith was cheap - the Pohlad’s run the Team “like a business” and that can be tough to root for at times. Real tough! They have been a part of 2 Championship years and have been part of multiple playoff entries……I get the lack of success - that’s Pro Sports - many factors involved in the lack of success (stiff competition) …….Citing the Royals as a big spender relative to market size is definitely a one off this year!!! They spent a bunch around a potential star with Witt and they were/are trying to influence a local vote for a new stadium…..different animal to me. If they go out and get somebody else I’ll believe they have turned a corner. However, traditionally not a very big $ spending franchise!

[ChermesZ]

At what point can we reclaim the stadium we built for them?

 

Seriously, their choices reek of a team self sabotaging itself so they can move for a ‘newer’ stadium.

[Dman]

That was a well thought out great read. Thanks!  I would just say that as a fan myself buying at the deadline isn't a make or break deal to me.  I believe in the players they have and I believe in them to be the best versions of themselves in the playoffs if they make it. 

The Twins have bought at the deadline with essentially disastrous results and little to no impact in recent years.  Buying at the deadline doesn't guarantee you anything more than what they have right now. Sure it's another hope chip, but not much more IMO.

Stay the course.  Believe in the guys we have.

[Jeff K]

The Twins are close to being as good as anyone.  I think another starter is essential.  Could the Twins do great with our current club?  I think so?  Does that depend upon no injuries to the starters?  Or no regression?  I think a resounding yes.  We need quality/proven depth with our starting pitching.

[wabene]

When Joe took over they signed Correa to a large contract, had the best pitching staff in memory and looked poised to make a run. The new young man in charge was purportedly a baseball fan and would even have an office at the ballpark and would be there daily, lol. It was a new day in Twindom! Then what the hell happened?

Best I can figure, the Twins had a poor first half and excitement was slow to build resulting in worse than expected attendance (possibly also due to long time fan emnity).

The poorly run business and marketing wing (DSP) fell down on the marketing end and got caught with their pants down on the TV deal, lol. 

With payroll obligations rising in the future, the more conservative old guard of the Pohlad empire stepped in to reign in the young whippersnapper. Dave St Peter simply ducked under his desk.

 

[mickster]

57 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Wouldn't be shocked if Falvey and Levine move Kepler to free up some salary so that they can upgrade the rotation and/or bullpen.

This makes a lot of sense to do - as he is gone in the offseason.

[Panthers FTW]

How many times is this exact same article going to be written?  The amount of teeth gnashing even from last trade deadline to now has been crazy for such a successful run from this franchise.  I'm aware it's harder to take a patient, long term approach instead of making big splashes but sustained success will help maintain fan interest a lot more than appeasing impatient fans demanding short sighted "win now" maneuvers.  Acting like inaction is some major failure by the franchise just blows my mind; I'd rather make no moves then overpay for someone who doesn't move the needle enough to make a substantial impact.

[tony&rodney]

True, that the Twins are unlikely to add significantly to their payroll in the next fews.

False, the Pohlads do not put the roster together or make trades.

This should have been addresses to Falvine.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Supposedly, Margot Kepler and . . .   wait for it . . .  Duran are potentially players the Twins would be willing to trade.  I still think Kepler you keep to see if can get hot during the stretch and can get another comp pick in next years draft,  unless someone is willing to do a massive overpay.  I think the Twins have the same theory with Duran,  if you want to do a massive overpay fine,  but what we would be looking for is reliever help or SP, so seems like it would be hurting more than helping.  
 

I still really trust Falvey and Levine and the direction they go in.  Most deals they end up ahead on,  and they have continued to build up the farm system.  It does seem like the Pohlads are really starting to tighten up the purse strings.  I thought might be a one off due to the television issues,  but it appears to be more than that.   

Really curious to see if anything happens in the next 36 hours,  honestly I am not expecting much.  

[Omgbenji]

These are some of the more poverty-level owners in the game. Not as bad as the A's, but that's a low bar. All of you on this forum saying a trade won't do anything for the fandom, for our chances at winning, or pointing to other teams that have spent and lost are absolutely out of your minds. I want this team to compete at a high level. The window is open right now and sometimes you spend more than your budge, and sometimes you come under budget. With an open window you spend. If running a sports team is too expensive for the Pohlads, then they should just F-ing sell the team. FTP. 

[SF Twins Fan]

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

That was a well thought out great read. Thanks!  I would just say that as a fan myself buying at the deadline isn't a make or break deal to me.  I believe in the players they have and I believe in them to be the best versions of themselves in the playoffs if they make it. 

The Twins have bought at the deadline with essentially disastrous results and little to no impact in recent years.  Buying at the deadline doesn't guarantee you anything more than what they have right now. Sure it's another hope chip, but not much more IMO.

Stay the course.  Believe in the guys we have. We did that in 87 and it worked out pretty well IMO.

I'm blanking this morning but when was the last time the Twins weren't shopping at the bargain bin at the deadline?

[JD-TWINS]

Snell threw 11 2/3 innings prior to May 22.

Since May 22 he’s thrown 36 innings.

He’s started 10 total games in 2024.

He makes $31M/year & has the flexibility to opt out of his current deal for ‘25 for a longer term deal…….nearly a certainty IF he’s healthy. If he’s not healthy a franchise is paying him $31M to rehab again.

He struck out 15 in his last outing and has a .104 BA against over last 4 starts. HIGH end stuff!!

This is his career, up & DOWN!

Does it make sense to pursue this guy - really make sense - not just a cool move?

I’d push Prospect chips in for Fairbanks from Tampa……some modified move for Tanner Scott as a rental……can’t see pursuing Snell as he might not throw another pitch after next week……waaay too much risk!

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, SF Twins Fan said:

I'm blanking this morning but when was the last time the Twins weren't shopping at the bargain bin at the deadline?

2022. That turned out quite bad for the Twins. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

42 minutes ago, Trov said:

I was listening to sports talk show the other day, national show, forget which one off top of head.  They talked about that in sports, most owners actually lose money in the day to day operation of a team, but make it up on the sale of the team.  I get annoyed with all these post and articles about how the Twins can, and need to spend more.  It has been going on for years, since the 90's.  Then even when we spend the fans still complain because team comes out and says sorry we are spending too much now and some of our long term revenue is shrinking.  

I would read article about how much money the Padres spent, but yet they did nothing and they had to take out a loan to pay their payroll and had to sell Soto for pennies on the dollar because they could not afford him. If fans are upset at payroll, then stop watching and stop supporting team.  Supporting team and complaining about how it is ran will not affect anything. 

The billionaires would LOVE for you to believe they are losing money. There's a reason none of them open their books until they are forced to.

The Mets and the Padres are the only teams in recent memory that have been run without profitability as the top priority and that's because Steve Cohen couldn't spend all his money if he tried and Peter Seidler wanted to win one before he died. Those are extreme outlier cases in all the history we have of MLB team spending. 

[Guest]

Passion aside the undeniable economic truth is that organizations that lack positive operating cash flow go out of business.  St. Louis' market is ranked slightly below the Twin Cities but the Cardinals cope very well.  

Cash flow will increase when the TV contract solidifies and fan attendance increases, period.  Management isn't ignoring the former, and local government plays a material part in increasing the latter.

All praise for the fandom.  Higher praise for a fandom that accepts economics and supports a return to a welcoming and safe city for in-person attendance.  The Pohlads aren't running a public utility.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

True, that the Twins are unlikely to add significantly to their payroll in the next fews.

False, the Pohlads do not put the roster together or make trades.

This should have been addresses to Falvine.

Falvey's hands are kind of tied if ownership let him give out legit contracts to guys like Correa and Buxton one year and then tell them to cut budget the next. 

The off field management of this team is much more bumbling than the on field management.