Hawkeye Bean Counter

He was a post TJ pick in 2023, and had struggled some in his 2023 year prior to the draft. He was topping out at around 92 that year. So obviously this is a pick that is working out, but this comes with the caveat that he is being pushed aggressively as much out of necessity as it is that the coaches see something special about him. I honestly think its a bit of both.

You realize the only way this works is that is exactly what happens most likely. Unless the Rays go clear off the reservation and go way unde slot at pick 2. As an accountant the math just doesn't work. So all 3 prospects are valued at lets say 40 million dollars currently. Flora will be $20 million and they will trend down after that. The savings will not give you the value that you could get by trading the player in the offseason.

You are trying to bully a team into not taking a player. The Twins don't really tend to play that game. They will pick the player they think are the best and pay slot money. Nothing the Giants can do about it. But if you are trying to get a player at 3 to take below market value you could have a player unwilling to play ball and say they won't sign below XYZ. This scenario is the entire reason the Twins tanked last year. Increase your odds to get a high pick. Yes you dropped one slot from who was eligible for a lotter pick - but ultimately 1 pick higher than where the Twins ended in the standings (4th). You are going to end up with an elite prospect. The value of that #3 pick over the value of the #4 pick is evident by everything Posey is trying to do.

I don't see any of these players willing to take a discount. Add in that you have the Giants who are actively stating they will overpay to try to get Chowolsky, Emerson or Lackey to fall to 4. They traded a Bailey to the Gaurdians to get the #29 pick and increase their bonus pool.

Just to show how tightly grouped the top 3 picks are, if they were to be included in the top 100 list - 1 evaluator would put Cholowsky at 19, Emerson at 24, Lackey at 25. Flora would then be 49 and Booth is outside the top 100 at 110. Salas is rated currently as a top 20 prospect and has a current value of around 40 on the trade calculators (highly subjective). You are getting an elite talented prospect - Chowolsky and Lackey are extremely polished with extremely high floors. Emerson is the best high school prospect since Bobby Witt Jr.

If Houston starts punishing AA pitching - a pick most were extremely meh about becomes potentially extremely valuable. His speed and power is much better than anticipated. He is sitting at 32 steals on the season and is a perfect 8 for 8 in 12 games for Wichita. Now its 1 game and he had struggle a bit prior to that game - but great game Marek. Amick did go 4-5 last night. He needs a few more of those as well. He is really leaned back into his power roots this year, rather than the contact approach he seemed to utilize last year.

My personal opinion is they take the safe pick at 3, the best player left of the 3 then we may see some tweaks. Now this could get tested though which I will discuss. We have seen tweaks throughout the years, more power less hit tool early on. Originally primarily only taking college pitchers then around 2021 they really leaned into taking 1-2 HS pitchers each year. The biggest thing is the Twins have generally punted C for the last 10 years. Now they took Jeffers with a 2nd round pick (which was considered a major reach at the time) and Khadim Diaw in the 3rd. Otherwise several in the 8-10 round range or late in the draft. I remember last year thinking Ike Irish being available would be an extremely smart pick in the 1st and they took Houston. Sitting here today I think Houston is the better player of the 2. Irish still has questions regarding his defense and Houston's power and speed is better than anticipated and the defense is already MLB level. The hit tool was expected to be pretty good, it was just whether he could do enough damage. So if Lackey is there at 3 do they take him? This will be the test. My personal opinion is yes. Lackey had better offensive numbers than Irish and plays elite defense. Add in the Twins have had evaluators at every single one of Lackey's games. Otherwise I expect small tweaks that effectively follow the same gameplan they have been using.

I think the question would be rookie of the year considerations for top 100 prospects and the 6 years of control.

I've been consistent that I don't think they should have traded Varland. He should have been the de facto closer coming into the season.

I think they really like Gray as a person. He is being paid 800k no matter what and between him and Kreidler they are trying to cobble through the year to save a year of service time for Culpepper. It’s not going for it or going big, but that’s what I take out of it.

Not what I’m sayin at all. They may only value him being worth 1 season or 3/4 of a season due to uncertainty with next year. Maybe they get full value from someone going for it this year. Who knows.

I continue to pound the pavement the return for the Twins is more than just Roden and Rojas- it’s also whoever we get at #3 in the draft, and it appears to be a higher probability we get either Cholowsky or Emerson which would be a major boon. Prospects are prospects but both have ceilings that are extremely high.

You seem to forget Mick Abel who looks like he belongs at the MLB level if he can remain healthy. As to prospects with a full 6 years left, you have Rojas, Roden, Mendez, Tait, Gallagher, Jimenez. They have only been proven correct so far because Varland has had an epic 1st half of the season. Good for him. No one was saying anything last season when he had a negative war the majority of the 2nd half of the season and ended with a zero war prior to the playoffs.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/which-trade-candidates-would-be-most-affected-by-a-lockout Players with 1 1/2 years of service time could have less trade value due to the potential lockout. Joe Ryan is one of the specific players mentioned as being the most effected.

If the Twins can find another gear for the fastball 1 to 2 mph, while maintaining the current control, and possibly work on a slider, they could find something there. At least there is potential there. He would be the 2nd best option of the retreads we have picked up based on his metrics - Gomez being the best which has worked out well. If we can find 2 decent bullpen options off the scrap heap I would call it a pretty successful venture on punting the bullpen this year.

I don't think he has a done a press conference since the last one.

You have to trade Joe Ryan, however will teams be willing to trade potential for a half season of Joe Ryan and give commensurate value in return. That is the only question in my mind.

The only thing I will say is - they at least did a total rebuild this time. They effectively tore down to the studs and have a group of prospects that could give the Twins fans something to root for similar to the 82 group, the 2001 group and the 2018 group. They also may be forced to invest in the team if the new collective bargaining creates a salary floor. Even still we need a new ownership group - which you hope occurs after the collective bargaining.

The Twins have had ample opportunity to bring up Culpepper this year. To me its very clear they are delaying their players clocks until after the new collective bargaining. So I don't see either of Culpepper or Jenkins coming up other than a cup of coffee that doesn't start their clocks yet.

He drops everyone down a level though. So his ERA is 1.5 to 2.0 with the Twins because of defense that isn't quite as good. He would have been the Twins closer coming into the season and would have solidified the early season woes. The Twins bullpen has gotten drastically better effectively when the twins got Gomez. He has slotted into the closer role and has done extremely well. I still question if he could fall off- but his stuff seems pretty good and the sweeper has really elevated his pitch mix. Giving him another weapon to keep hitters off balance. Even still it is not a game changer right now. The front office refused to pay or trade to rebuild the bullpen. They are taking the long approach to try to find castoffs and internal options to rebuild the bullpen. 2027 -2028 still feels like the time period where the Twins will really try to win. We are in a limbo where they are playing solid ball but not good enough to really do damage in the playoffs in my opinion. Overall though, I completely agree with the main points of your post.

Grady Emerson is the pick if he is available 100%. He is exactly the type of player the Twins have historically targeted and he has the highest ceiling of anyone since 2023. Things can change but this is the current outlook. 1. White Sox - 50/50 on Cholowsky or Emerson 2. Rays - They appear to prefer Vahn over Emerson I personally think you are in good shape with either 3 of these picks. However my board would be 1A. Emerson 1B. Cholowsky 3. Vahn In either case you are getting a very good prospect and really they are all very similar in tier level. Cholowsky is an extremely polished player. He is the best SS to come out of college since Tulowitzki. He has had extremely high consistent performance. You have an extremely high floor on Cholowsky. Emerson - He has a slightly higher ceiling than Cholowsky and some view as a better hit tool than Cholowsky. He has consistently been viewed very similarly to Bobby Witt Jr. Vahn - the best catching prospect to come through the draft since Rutschman. Good Hit tool, good defense and gets better every year. I think you are really splitting hairs on who will be better - I think its also why the White Sox appear to be 50/50 on Cholowsky or Emerson - go with the safer pick with still a very high ceiling, or go with the player who could have the highest ceiling of them all in Emerson. I said even when we got the pick I thought Emerson may fall to the Twins - these drafts are weird. As of right now - I still think that is the most likely outcome based on what we know. The real question becomes if its Cholowsky and Vahn does the rays still go Vahn? Its hard to say. We will know here in a few days.

Trading Varland was more than just getting Rojas and Roden. It was to try and get an elite player in the draft and with 3 elite players in the draft this strategy appears to have worked. I am glad Varland is doing well, but no one thought he would do this well. Last year he had a 4.94 ERA for the Blue Jays. Relievers are notorious for turning into pumpkins.

I do think there is a high probability one of our players will be leaving with the Red Sox on Thursday. We will see if anything comes to fruition.

Lets look at trades where we were not forced buyers. Cruz for Ryan - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Petty for Gray - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Arraez for Lopez - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Duran for Escobar - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Berrios for Martin and SWR. Berrios had a WAR of .9 for 2021 and 2022 which he was under control for. Martin has flopped, but SWR has a WAR of 3.3. This is a trade more can have questions on but its still a win for now. You add in getting rid of Donaldson contract (maybe you question signing him), the Rogers trade equated to equal value, and as of right now we are way ahead on the Polanco trade who had negative value last year with Gabriel Gonzalez. So on his skills on trading players, its honestly 1 of his strongest attributes. He does understand the value of assets in trades. This isn't me trying to convince you, its merely me giving you the facts. He has won a majority of the times when he has not been trying to buy to improve the team for the stretch run. If you want to go on performance fine. Most of our issues are with management, I will not totally agree with everything Falvey has done, but all in all for the most part he has given us a competitive team every year (some years they haven't performed). In the meantime the minors is the strongest it has ever been. With quality hitters and Pitchers. The argument will be the Twins have had minimal success taking these prospects and turning them into legitimate players. As of now the results have not been great. Right now Ober, Sands and Varland and Matthews, Lewis, Lee Larnach and Wallner are the players that have been drafted. We need a postitional player to become a star, can Lee or Lewis become that - as of now it doesn't look likely. Matthews has a legitimate shot at becoming a high end pitcher for the Twins. So if you don't want to trust him with trading the players my response would be, he has shown nothing on trades, especially when he has been in the power position to lose your trust.

Prielipp when healthy is dominant, like #1 or #2 pitcher dominant. Health has always been the question mark. Its why he had 1st round talent but were able to get him in the 2nd round, and also why he has been on the shelf for a significant portion of the last 3-4 years. As a lefty, with his velocity, spin, and quality pitches he definitely looks like are next high quality SP pitcher prospect. I do like the way they have been handling his workload, and gradually stretching him out. Good job for Hidalgo and Ross, they are doing their jobs but most likely the stuff from either is not good enough. The splits for July for Hidalgo are not good. If you want to talk about a pitcher that is making a statement, its Bohorquez. 0 ERA for July, only 2 total runs. He has a .077 Batting average against in 16 innings. He does need to work on his control, 3 HBP, and 4 BB, compared to just the 4 hits he has given up. Like Hidalgo he started off slow, jumping from FCL, but he has been dominant lately in A ball.