Hawkeye Bean Counter

Says the guy who uses the bully pulpit and downvotes everything he disagrees with - which is a lot.

The most likely is Hill who has a 1.2 Whip in high A as a 19 year old. Lefty’s that strike out 12k per a 9 don’t grow on trees. Amick had a hot streak in AA for the Mets, he could have a Gallo like career. Agbayani is likely a bench player like his dad. The international player is a lottery ticket. He still can’t hit at A ball. Can he have a second year like Fragoza, maybe. The issue is you could have kept those players sold off pieces and been in the lottery one more year then go for it starting next year.

For as much as the Red Sox gave the Orioles I am sure you could have gotten a significant return and it may have been from the Red Sox or even another team. Our front office made it clear they weren’t trading him.

The talk was we could have fetched someone with around 20-25 million excess value. Think Bradley valuation of last year, so either someone with high upside but hadn't performed as well or a pretty good upside player still in the minors. Someone picked at the end of the first generally has a value of 10-15 million. So we left something on the table and something that is less likely to hit and much further away than getting a player in AA or AAA.

They seem to be getting better. Jenkins, Culpepper, Jenkins Lackey, Houston, Matthews, Morris, Priellip. The 22 draft class is pretty dang impressive. We traded off almost the entire 2021 draft class to support the big league team. We did something similar but not quite as drastic trading off Amick and Hill from the 2024 draft class. Still have Culpepper, Debarge (meh), Diaw. Kendle and Ferrer may surprise but the pitching in that class has been extremely meh. 2025 has been pleasantly surprising on the pitching front, but injuries have limited some upside. . Young appears to be lacking too much hit tool. Barr struggled adjusting a bit, Ellwanger was injured Reitz did ok. Quick has been pushed in the system. The mid to late round players have done better than the previous classes. Mitrovich, Smith, Fang, Jones, Moring, and Stevens, Dalquiest, Becker, and Hilker have all pitched (better than previous classes) and there appears to be some decent clay in that group. There are some high velocity throwers in the 2026 class which should be interesting to watch. The hitters especially picked later in 2026 have been pretty dang interesting in A ball. Teel, Turner, Lane all look solid. Teel .713(was .900 for a stretch), Turner .941 Lane .978. Thats an impressive group of hitters picked in the 10th and later rounds. Tinney struggled a bit with the more inaccurate pitching at the A ball level similar to Lackey. He has pounded the ball when he got a hold of it .932 OPS. Lackey ended in high A and did well. The international side also appears to be developing more fruit recently. This isn't elite but its all an improvement. Having high draft picks helps the outcomes as well.

There is talks that a rush of signings could come before the new CBA. Players will want to lock something in and Teams think there will be cash on the other side. We could see this resolved in October.

I am not sure the Twins are his preferred long term destination. I really think he wants to be on the Yankees and the Yankees want him. He will go back to his old Catching coach and likely get a bag. He should have been traded but they can still get decent value in return. Its why going for it at the deadline was a dumb strategy. But those goals align more with the Pohlads goal of maximizing sale value rather than the long term goals of the Twins.

I give him a 5 year offer at 12 million if thats the going rate. His 5 years of peak value at $60 million and then trade some of the catching prospects we have. I don't see that as a realistic situation nor do the Twins. The Jeffers camp is aiming for something much higher than $12 million a year.

For 1 year I don't see the big deal. We have lots of quality catching that should be up by 2028. Lackey and Diaw both appear to be on track.

$60 million is my base case. I think he actually gets near $80 million. He has been undervalued by this fanbase in my opinion. He has solid defense, great offense, is performing well with challenges actually increasing his value and he has relatively low mileage for a catcher. His peak should last longer because he hasn't had the abuse most catchers do during the season.

Its not often they go straight to management and tell them they plan to turn down the qualifying offer before hand. Martin Perez should have turned down the qualifying offer and got a 3 year $50 million deal or higher. He didn't and he preceeded to get $8 million and 4.5 million in his 2 season following his 1 year deal at 19+ million. With injuries and underperformance at catcher, they want to cash in on effectively a near career year.

To me he looks similar to someone like Emilio Pagan. I think there is definitely some rough patches and there is a big difference between MLB and AAA- but he has upside. We will see if he can figure it out or not.

Jeffers and his team have already made it clear they want a long term deal and will turn down the qualifying offer.

Trov - the qualifying offer takes place before then end of the league year. Meaning this is the last guaranteed year of the qualifying offer. I agree he should have been traded but you are still getting an early 30's draft pick. That has some value. Someone will offer him more than 3 years $50 million and he wants a long term deal. Jeffers also has much less wear and tear than most catchers because the Twins have used a lot of tandem catching with him until this year.

It would be a top 35 draft pick. It comes after the 1st round. Likely a replacement of Dasan Hill in the system.

Only on stocks my friend.

After an up and down week, things look dire on the playoff front. playoff odds 4% #1 pick. 2.1% Top 6. 20.2%

Catching is more than just throwing out baserunners. Plus even though running is becoming a bigger part of the game. It will never be as big a part of the game at the mlb level as players age. I’ve always felt he can stay at catcher same as Tait. For being age 22 he can continue to improve throwing out baserunners. The fact the Twins are saying he is improving defensively is as good of confirmation on improvement defensively and that catcher continues to be his primary position.

No Lackey? No Culpepper? Lackey should be top 5 already Culpepper at least honorable mention.

Come on, no need to be that cynical Bean.

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-acquire-pablo-lopez-from-marlins

5-3, effective at bat Caratini. All right let’s see what you can do Lewis.

He has received care. He is just another cautionary tale of being an arm that was abused at Rice University. Now there is still a slim possibility the surgeries fixed the issue and there is not significant scar tissue or significant decline in velocity ect. Now I think there was some delay in receiving some procedures as they wanted to try to heal them naturally. However the Twins have not just ignored his medical needs. Now I do think our medical team was lacking there for a significant period and struggling to identify injuries - Buxton comes to mind.

LOL - He was the current years version of Jackson. I rooted for him but dang he seemed just awkward. I didn't think he would ever have month like this, but his AAA stats showed it was possible.

Speaking of players we think are worthless like Outman- anyone kept up with our friend Gasper? The lightbulb must of clicked.