Hawkeye Bean Counter

We gave up a #12 prospect on some lists (Reyes) for what some view as a backend starter at best. I am a little more optimistic. We gave up a #7 Pitching prospect for 210 games for a volatile closer. I also like Hoffman. However you can't say we didn't give up a lot when both of those players have immense upside for both players who we control for 1 year and 2 months. This is all about trying to sell tickets. Thats its.

Ryan vs Dobnak. Will we actually be able to hit Dobnak this time around. Dobnak seems to have found the special pixie dust he had in 2019.

Whats the over/under on how many runs the Mighty Mussels score tonight? I say 8 would be the number. I think they go over at 10/11.

"Half measures are not good, and you'll probably get to know me over time," Pohlad said. "I'm not a half-measure guy. I'm a 'go big or go home' guy." Ok- he never bought this year for the bullpen to start the year that he said he would. His 3 deals which cost 1 of our better young arms have increased our chances in the playoff (checks the stats . . . oh they have gone down from 30% to 27%). This seems to be the definition of a half measure. Do enough to get just enough positive articles, a few more butts in the seat but this team doesn't have a shot at winning it all unless 3-4 batters go on an absolute tear. I just don't see it.

I am firmly in the camp that the Dean Kremer trade will be viewed positively. 36 innings and 6.5 ERA is a small sample size and a guy coming back from injury, but his stuff under the hood still looks good. I think he will be a good steady #3 at best or #4 pitcher similar in the Ober mold (with better stuff). Hoffman and Kremer were both players that had recent hiccups and some lack of confidence from ownership/fans. Hoffman took a lot of backlash for the World Series. Kremer's return from injury so far has been a bit ugly but has been the victim of a 3.0 HR/9. They were effectively buy low candidates with upside. The issue is we still paid quite a bit for Hoffman - I just wish we had done something like this is the offseason. Actually spent some money and traded a few decent pieces when prices were cheaper. We paid a premium on all 3 trades, I just think the margin of improvement is likely greater than what we paid for Kremer, Hoffman on the other hand - even though I like him I don't understand it. He can be a top 10 closer for the next 210+ games. However to acquire that closer was pretty costly and is a luxury that a mediocre team doesn't need. We have a 27% chance at the playoffs even after the trade. Between the starting pitching wearing out, or the hitters not producing the same amount of runs they did pre deadline I am just not sure we have enough to even make it to the playoffs, let alone do something in the playoffs. If you think the Twins can be WS champions, there are currently +8000 odds for you LOL. Tom will get his wish of a few more fans in the stands for the next few weeks and then we will see if they are still competing for a spot or not. This really only pays off for Tom if they can be in the race all the way up til the end of the season. I am still unsure how many tickets he can sell for next season if we get into the playoffs.

Both Bell and Caratini were signed after Tom took over. We were set to sell Ryan at the winter meetings and direction suddenly changed. Next thing we knew Joe was out and Tom was in.

I’ve learned to take Tom at his word. He said he wasn’t trading Jeffers or Buxton or Ryan. What I don’t agree with is fake buying, We will buy to not hurt fan feelings. Even if you don’t agree with what the dispute was, probably a multitude of things, micro manager, unrealistic expectations with the likelihood of losing his job. The issue is they didn’t even interview. They just gave Zoll the job. Fans wouldn’t revolt over losing 2 months of Jeffers especially if the trade return was good.

If we are current contenders then why are we at +7000-+8000.

The question is are we truly a contender? There is a risk this year to bringing players up because once they are on the 40 man they can’t come to the facilities or play in the minors if a lockout occurs. So Zoll said they will bring up rookies, so is that Jenkins and Culpepper, or is it Rodriguez if he is healthy and Mendez. My premise is Toms horizon is short so he shouldn’t care about using Jenkins and Culpepper but who knows.

That’s because in general there is a dearth of offensive talent at the catcher position. There are 4-5 good catchers, either old or haven’t been signed on the free agent market. So claiming no one else is getting paid is short sighted. Now the Twins lost a golden opportunity at adding a top 100 prospect by trading Jeffers and possibly more. Even still we have an opportunity to capitalize on likely the last year of the qualifying offer compensation. As to a Jeffers, he has been a 2 WAR player per a year with flashes of being a 3-4 WAR player. My best guess is he gets a 4 year $80 million or a 5 year $88 to $90 million contract.

Say what you will I have found myself agreeing with a lot of what @USAFChiefhas been saying the last couple days as well LOL. I may even get him to agree that the draft capital from last year ie. Lackey could be pivotal in the Twins next potential wave at getting a World Series. 😜 There is a part of me that wishes the Twins had traded for Volpe so I could have gotten my popcorn to watch his reaction LOL.

Any team that has made it to the WS has had at least 2-3 elite players. So the unexpected teams 2019 Braves- they had 3-4 elite hitters for the playoffs Acuna was injured, but still had Swanson, Freeman, Albies, and Riley. Then they caught lightening in a bottle with Eddie Rosario, Soler and Duval. 2023 Rangers- 7 WAR players. Semien and Seager then a ton of good hitters around them. 2023 Diamondbacks - Corbin Carroll, Walker, Marte and Moreno all 4+ WAR players The Twins currently do not have enough elite players. Now the new CBA may balance the tables more, but the Twins as currently being run will always be at a disadvantage to other teams due to not spending as much. So they need to juice their odds by drafting better than other teams in a 4-5 year stretch and trade for significant assets. Now the Twins have a chance at 3-5 elite hitters all playing at the same time - Keashall, Jenkins, Lackey, Culpepper all have extremely high ceilings. Then the next tier has some questions Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Mendez. Is there enough talent from this group to make the next run. I would argue we would have a better chance had we taken the Red Sox offer for Ryan last year and added Arias and Tolle if that was the true offer. Plus we would have another shot at a high draft pick. Now maybe we still get lucky and get another high draft pick in the lottery. Otherwise we need 1 of the other prospects to outperform. That could be a Tinney, Winokur, Young ect. Pitching wise I am fairly confident our scouts currently have a good idea of finding talents through drafts or trades. Between Bradley, Abel Priellip maybe Matthew’s that’s a strong core. Hill likely had 1 of the highest ceilings in the minors which is why I see the trade for Hoffman being extremely risky. We likely need a couple of the following arms to hit- Soto, Quick, Ellawanger, Reitz, Barr, Renfrow, Wachsmann, Lapour, Murdock, Burns or one of the flyers in the last 2 drafts. Now this group of pitchers have much more raw stuff than we have drafted before, but between injuries or lack of skill a good majority will wash out. Now the only upside to all of this is I think Joe Ryan has a much better relationship with Tom because he kept his word. If it increases the odds we can sign him to a long term contract, then some of the shortsightedness of this year will be worth it. Then we have to learn how to manage his workload. I think Joe gets a tired arm at the end of July and would be beneficial to give him a 2-3 week break each year to refresh. I think the all star game was the worst thing for Joe as he could have gotten some rest. Even still he is an elite pitcher who continues to improve and take good care of of his body. I think he will age gracefully. I am also not opposed to a shorter and cheaper extension with Pablo. I think he is the consummate pitcher and professional. So ultimately I still have hope but the margin of error is less. We have 3-4 less elite talented prospects than if we had done a full rebuild and traded Jeffers, Ryan and Larnach. The only positive is we did not develop a losing mentality in the clubhouse and I will give a lot of credit to Shelton. The pitching coaches have done wonders with this staff and maximized their ability. So @USAFChief no rebuild is a guarantee but it is likely the best shot a small market to mid market team has to developing enough elite talent all at once to win it all.

The only matters as long as Tom steps into the background at stops looking out for his self interest than the long term goals of the organization. Tom thought this team could win in February, he thinks this team can win now hence buying at the deadline. He either wants to be the players friend, is extremely pie in the sky or he’s mor worried about maximizing his sale value.

I don’t even understand this front offices motives anymore. I am as confused as the other general managers about what the Twins are and will do.

This posted before I had finished. Here is my full post.

I’ve said for the last 7 years we needed to do a full rebuild. It seemed like Falvey realized that and was actually executing it fairly well before Tom short circuited it in January. This is ultimately the reason I think Falvey mutually left the Twins. Tom had unrealistic expections the Twins could win this year when this was always going to be a 2 year rebuild. It’s why it was a waste to not trade Ryan or Jeffers or even Larnach. Now I do think we still have a good chance at the next window opening with Lackey, Jenkins, Culpepper and Houston. Everything has gone right and we are still a .500 team. Now could we capture lightening in a bottle similar to Atlanta. We could but it’s unlikely. Whether Atlanta, Arizona or Texas they all had some elite talents on the roster. The Twins other than Jeffers and possibly Buxton do not have the depth of elite talents either of any of the teams mentioned. The pitching roster could be similar to the Arizona roster but even still I don’t think it’s enough. The difference with Atlanta is they gave up very little to supplement their roster. They affectively took the exact same gambles the Twins did, but they didn’t give up a Reyes, Hill, Amick, Agbayani or Klein. Now not all those prospects will hit but my guess is 1 will and if Hill becomes a #1 pitcher this would be one of the stupidest trades in Twins history for a year where we realistically don’t have a chance to compete. whether hubris, or a misalignment of personal goals (selling the team) vs the long term goals of winning the WS. It’s ultimately why I think Falvey and Tom couldn’t get along. Whether thinking this team could win in February or thinking this team can win now even with everything going right, it’s clear Tom isn’t either realistic how baseball works or he doesn’t care about 2-3 years down the road. Zoll is effectively a rubber stamper for Tom. To me I am more disappointed in not finishing a true rebuild than the trade deadline sell off last year. At least with a full rebuild you had the hope the Twins could compete. Right now this is all a facade and we spent enough to say we spent without giving ourselves a true chance to compete.

Falvey and Joe were setting the Twins up for the next wave. If Lackey is a multiple time all star or more along with Jenkins everything from last year will be worth it. The prospects and players we got are worth much more than Hill, Reyes, Amick Klein and Agbayani. Hill and Reyes have the highest risk of backfiring.

I realized I had over inflated by 150 at bats. I thought he was a lot higher last year.

The future wave will also most likely be credited to Falvey. Say what you will Falvey could find starting pitching. Variety of methods. He didn’t hit on hitters from 17 through 21 and that was his downfall.

So he’s a backup with upside. For something we gave little for he has been a great insurance policy for this organization and possibly more. I view him as a better Rorverdt. That has value.

It’s poorly constructed because Pohlad is trying to do just enough to get into the playoffs. He is meddling too much which is why him and Falvey didn’t get along. He has zero MLB experience and he only has a 12-18 month horizon. He is not worried about the long term. Sell tickets and increase the team value. It’s why other orgs said they didn’t understand the Twins philosophy.

We could have fleeced the market with Jeffers, but we can’t compete without him. This roster isn’t perfect but overall it’s not bad. Unless we catch lightening in a bottle we likely go no where inn the playoffs.

He was horrible to start the year. He is a volatile closer.

2 years and nearly 300 at bats is moving out of SSS territory.

What was last year?