Hawkeye Bean Counter

Actually Gallagher is starting to ease some worries by looking like a legitimate MLB option with his last 4 starts looking very good. Yes the ERA for the year is high - but that doesn't show how he is performing in the present moment. Rojas is getting work in to I think be starting pitcher more permanently. This is good for his long term value and likely in the best interest of the team as well now that we got more reliable arms in the bullpen. Jack Anderson is becoming a great swiss army knife. He is an arm that has shown reliability as a bullpen arm but has also been a starting pitcher as well at AAA. He is an excellent insurance policy for either the bullpen or starting pitching. I think the concerns on Priellips innings limit are overblown for the regular season. It becomes a bigger question if we have an extended playoff run.

If you look at the Stuart and Varland trade as getting rid of good bullpen arms to purposefully lose for 2 months its not very difficult to understand the game plan. Stuart was dumped and that is clear as day. It didn't matter with traded for peanuts or DFA'd we were getting rid of any decent bullpen arm.

I don't think he is an outfielder either. We have ample outfielders coming through the system as well. As to defense I would continue to work on it. He is a man out of position - so he is going to have to work on 1 of the positions.

Keaschall's home is 2nd base and I think that will become clear this offseason. Jenkins - Buxton - Rodriguez outfield Lee - Culpepper - Keaschall- Lewis Infield Caratini - Jackson Catchers Clemens, Martin, Kreidler as bench players. That is a very strong bench, defense running ability hitting ability.

I don't see the issue. Larnach becomes the DH. Buxton, Rodriguez and Jenkins is the outfield. Martin is the bench outfielder. Roden is optioned to AAA.

My interpretation was you misstated what I had said initially stating “no catching depth.” I felt you were a bit snarky initially hence why I kept dishing it back, plus I am really excited for the season so felt it was appropriate to use the meme. If I offended I apologize. As to Jackson I just people really underestimate 1. Keeping him as depth for this season because we have no other viable depth and 2. The cost that would be necessary to replace next year.

1. Did you even read the paragraph you took that sentence from? The intention was clear we have no one capable in the minor leagues and if we DFA’d Jackson and Jeffers or Caratini got hurt we would be in break glass situation. Not in regards to the future legit catching prospects we have in the lower minor levels. 2. This reacher season is based on the book Gone Tomorrow - I agree casting Tom Cruise was one of the silliest casting choices. Did they even read the books?

I’m pretty sure I said MLB depth to be clear. Reacher- “In an investigation, details matter.” Can you tell I’m ready for season 4 to release.

Did Culpepper get fooled on that first pitch. Gamecast has it a foot outside.

Lackey- we wanted to lose Chad. As to rebuilding on the fly they have gotten lucky, but also shows you can rebuild a bullpen pretty cheap.

@HarmonK03 after thinking some more I think we are more aligned on this topic than you think. You said Tom needed to get to the bottom of it - I think he has. Say what you will I have openly stated my concerns with Tom but there has been a divide between players and coaching:management/ownership since right sizing in 2023. Each party was doing what they felt was in their best interest. From the top down. So everything became individually oriented than team oriented. What I’ve given Tom credit for is opening up lines of communication again and regaining some trust. Coaching has drastically improved and simple things such as bunting are gradually coming back to the organization. You need to work on it throughout the season not just expect to be able to do it in the playoffs. Lastly the team dynamic is the best it’s been in years. That has value. The game is more than just home runs exit velocity and spin rates in pitching. Shelton appears to be melding old school and analytics quite well.

To me it was Correa. You had Lewis and Jose Miranda who Correa took under his wing. Last year Paddack and Jax were very much doing their own thing. I think it was an issue from the top down including the coaching. They went too far trying to change everyone's approach thinking the cookie cutter approach of 2019 was going to work for everyone. The only one to defy that approach was Arraez. There was then kickback and you had voices like Correa who has gotten by doing things his way and he is not bashful about it. His opinion was clear that players are effectively smarter than organizations and that you need to worry about yourself and not the team goals because you are the only way you are getting paid. It almost matches up entirely with Royce's statement from last year. You are correct that Lewis did make a change after the Twins demoted him and he took the 72 hours to fly back home and his dad and Boras said maybe to go back to the kick. The Twins have told him some things he needed to change.

That triple was 2 feet from being a home run as well to the right field bleachers. That ball was crushed. Yes he has had 2 hits that have been coded as errors that I felt were hits as well. He seems much more confident this go around and is producing in more clutch moments.

He came out last year and it said he wasn't changing his approach even though the staff asked him to because it would mess with his counting stats. The implication was he would do it in the offseason. Guess what he said he made zero changes and was going to continue doing the same thing this year. “It’s also hard to make a full in-season adjustment because you can try that, and those 30 games or at-bats of trial go toward your stats,” Lewis said. “Do you really want to sacrifice that? And if it doesn’t work, then you go back to what you were doing before. It’s always hard. I know (Michael) Harris (II) just did a significant change. Being under contract probably helps because he knows what he’s making that year and the year after. For someone like me, I’m fighting (to take) care of myself and my family. I don’t want to put any of those stats in jeopardy. I’m trying to do what’s best as fast as possible. But feeling like I’ve been on an island, it’s kind of tough.” - Lewis Last August 2025 He then went outside the organization to Isenhower, not changing his mechanics but trying to work on his timing. It didn't work as he had an atrocious spring training and it continued in April in May. His opinion was pretty clear he was going to take his own instruction not from the Twins. This is the bad influence which I think Correa infected in the organization. Thats not to take away from Correa. Then after the demotion he finally made some adjustments and went back to a high Kick that he had used all the way through 2021 rather than a double toe tap. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/twins-royce-lewis-unlocked-swing-one-quiet-adjustment So what's changed? For starters, it appears Lewis made a notable mechanical adjustment to his swing. While he's always had a small leg kick when he plants his front leg, that leg kick is now much larger.

Yes but none are above AA yet. Diaw has a real shot at being in AAA next year and being the first real depth option. He has 685 career at bats combined in minor league (due to injuries that is a really small number). You have Tait at A+ and then Lackey and Tinney currently at A ball. They are all a year away. Jackson is our only MLB quality depth catcher in the system. Otherwise in AAA you currently have major defensive and offensive questions. Jackson is an average to plus defender with what has been an above average bat for the last 2 seasons in 160 mlb at bats. The under the hood statistics looks pretty good. Cardenas has .164/.318/.615. Olivar is on the 60 day injured list. Banuelas has .206/.269/.643, Needless to say its ugly in AAA right now.

Personally for me Royce felt entitled, and that he was going to do things his way. I really think Correa was a really bad influence on him - but I have discussed that before and it likely goes no where. This very much feels like an equivalent to Bradley with Tampa Bay except Royce's value had declined much more. I think the organization tried everything they could to try to get him back on track. Royce would make some odd off the cuff statements similar to Bradley and neither seemed interested in changing and both's performance collapsed. So I wasn't rooting for him to fail, I will always cheer for my Twins to succeed but I have stated for 2 years what his issues were and it continued to become more and more pronounced each year and I expected him to fail unless he was willing to change his approach. You can't pull an outside pitch consistently. That all he was seeing and the few mistakes he was whiffing on as well. The difference was whether being demoted or Shelton getting through to him it appears he realized he had to change or he may no longer have a career in the MLB. Once he accepted that, he started producing more, and having more confidence.

Quoting 10 years of stats is so lazy. Some players it just takes a longer time for them to click. Yes it is still a small sample size, but over 2 years Jackson has now produced a positive WAR in completely different ways. Excess home runs in 2025, and higher batting average in 2026 - but in both cases his swing velocity has increased drastically - and his exit velocity has increased which makes the higher BABIP this year seem like it could continue rather than just being a small sample size. With backup catchers regularly having a negative WAR this seems like a good gamble to take in a year where the FA class is abysmal. If you are willing to waste another lottery ticket prospect or higher to fill the backup catching position so be it. However the bigger issue is we have zero MLB depth at the catching position in the minors. So if you let him go and 1 of Jeffers or Caratini gets hurt you are in a break glass situation. Also there is a zero percent chance he passes through waivers with the massive amount of injuries and underperformance. The Yankees would scoop him up in a heartbeat. Heck they took a chance on Mitch Garver on an milb deal. Jackson current salary is $1.35 million. Which was a higher deal than the expected arbitration number by the Orioles to make it less likely for a team to scoop him up on waivers. Its how the Twins got lucky when they dfa'd after spring training, but at that time there was zero demand for backup catchers. Since then multiple catchers have been injured or underperformed.

Throughout his career at the MLB level Lewis has just shown flashes but then has effectively be a subpar hitter the majority of the rest of the time. His April and May were atrocious. In 11 games in May he had a -7 OPS+. I don't think I have ever seen a negative number before. He had lost all confidence and approach at the plate. He was sent down and I think most felt this was likely the end of the career. He started off a little slow in AAA then he seemed to have accepted his situation and for the first time in a few years started to change his approach at the plate. He tried to adjust his mechanics last year then said he reverted back and complained about it stating its too hard to change during the year. However he did start to change. 1st being more aggressive early in the count. When getting to a deeper count and in general he has started to drive the outside pitch away. Early in the year and last year, pitchers were almost exclusively pitching him away outside the zone. All Royce was doing was striking out or creating weak contact trying to pull it. Now he has been more aggressive early in counts but he has done something strategically different. He 1. Is not swinging at as many balls outside the zone forcing pitchers to come middle and in more. 2. When it is outside he is going away and driving the ball. Home Runs, doubles ect. He then started drilling the inside pitches, that when the few mistakes occurred earlier in the season he was whiffing on as well. He hit really well in AAA came back to the big leagues and seems to keep improving as time has gone on. He has completely transformed during the season, and its all because of Royce. His confidence is back as well. His bat can be one of the few difference makers currently in this lineup.

I am completely fine with Roden or even Martin but I think that train has left after yesterdays explosion. I see zero possibility of Jackson being DFA'd. Thats my opinion, but I think the implication is for him to remain on the roster the remainder of the year to be the backup for next year. My guess is as much as his stats have been solid I think he is impressed the coaching staff with his professionalism and always being ready when called upon. He is effectively the perfect 13 man. As to the Varland trade being a disaster I disagree. The trade itself yes Roden had already deflated value in half before the trade, as to excess value on the trade calculator he is now an 8 instead of 10 million. Rojas I would argue shows true potential at being an MLB arm. His control improves with innings which lends me to think he is more likely to succeed as a starter which improves the value calculation. Lastly I see zero possibility of the Twins getting the second highest lottery odds and getting the #3 pick to draft Vahn Lackey if we didn't trade Varland. Lackey has immensely more value than almost every other prospect and player in the Twins organization and has an excess value $20 million higher than the #4 pick Jackson Flora.

As to the Red Sox trade I just don't think they felt there was enough time or not quite enough value. They thought they could regroup during the winter and trade him. As to Joe and Falvey they appear to have been telling teams all the way up until the winter meetings they were trading Joe. Then the family meeting occured with the new investors. Joe is no longer heard from. A couple days before the Winter Meetings Falvey states plans have changed and that they are no longer trading Joe Ryan. Later Tom is announced as the new Pohlad face in charge of the Twins. Falvey and Tom have a mutual parting, stating they didn't effectively get along well or have the same vision. As to Ryan, I would say keep him for next year unless you get an overwhelming offer which I think is unlikely. Timeline of dates we know Winter Meeting - December 7th - December 11th Tom Announced - December 17th Falvey mutually left - January 30th

I didn't even put him in my top 20. The hit tool will have to dramatically improve.

Joe Ryan isn't putting the Twins in a tough spot at all. Granted the Twins should have likely traded him at the last deadline and then this offseason. However Tom Pohlad wants to win and regain fan trust and wouldn't allow Falvey to trade him. That is Toms decision making not Joe putting the Twins in a bad spot. As to Joe Ryans decline in the second half for the longest time I have said the team should give him a 2-3 week break maybe even a month in Late July early August. . He is a player that struggles to handle the rigors of a full season. Let him rest, regain strength and then push towards the end. His velocity had cratered making his fastball extremely hittable.

You are correct Harmon.

Or that they admit they rushed his call up do to trying to jump start the offense and caving to fan and media pressure. All we have heard is they need to call up Culpepper and Jenkins. I am fine with leaving up and adjust. I also think Keaschall made a stupid challenge that may have saved Culpeppers last at bat. Even still he struck out in every at bat other than his sac fly.

At this point I would say Buxton for Roden - The outfield is then Larnach, Buxton, Clemens and Martin. There is a possibility they send Culpepper back down as well if the next 2 games go rough as well.