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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ive been following mariners podcast since the trade. They have stated effectively, nothing was off the table, but they did not want to trade their starting 5. They have loved their offseason with constraints that were very similar to the Twins.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brody Brecht, Hawkeye, currently a top 15-25 prospect is a player I am going to be watching that could be someone the Twins target. Fastball gets up to 102, very very good slider and then questionable control. He went 6 innings yesterday against auburn 2 runs, 11 SO. 60 strikes in 100 pitches. Better than his slightly better than 50% strike rate in his first outing. He is one that could climb into the top 10, but I think 20-30 range is where he ends up.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Everything I read was they had no intention of trading either unless a severe overpay and they could use it to help this years team. Their strength is SP, they wanted to keep that up, and fill in their lineup through other maneuvers.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins received close to Miller value with the pieces they got. There could be potential upside on Desclafani, Gonzalez and Bowen. Topa is more than fairly valued in the trade simulator in my opinion. For the Twins to get Miller they would have had to give up more than just Polanco. However I am fine with the Twins aiming high.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Sorry Semantics. 2nd year for me is 2025. And just helping out in a Varland role. Varland if stays a starter will fill in Desclafani's spot. Then Festa would move up.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I hate the same tired argument, the SP is so much worse without Maeda and Gray. Maeda was an arm last year and nothing more and was injured for part of it. Gray, performance wise was great, W-L can be achieved relatively easily with better offensive production. Paddack is looking good again. I am cautiously optimistic on Desclafani. If he is the early 2023 version or the 2021 version he is obviously moving the needle. The new pitches don't look great in spring training so far. I think he can give us what Maeda gave us last year, and we have Varland to fill in when need be. Festa is 2 years away from helping us is my best guess.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    No there is a difference between a hard limit, and slowing someone down. In traffic school you learned the difference between a slow down and a stop right 😉. I know cops are willing to teach you that lesson. I think as he get higher on the innings threshold they may be willing to give him a days rest to keep him fresh for the post season. Ultimately the post season is the goal.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is a difference in 2 years of Paddack and protecting a 6 years of performance of a new prospect. I think ultimately what they are saying is they will see how he is performing. They won't stop him at 150 innings or 160 innings. However, he may be giving an off day or pulled early to limit innings if we get later in the season and he is ticking up on the innings count.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think he will provide what Pablo did for us last year. He has been in the big leagues enough, he knows what it takes to succeed, as well as he has been in our system for 2 years now. The velocity has improved which needed it too. Then we will see what the new pitches bring to his repertoire. Personally I think he may have few hiccups early, then gets it a groove and crushes the season. Paddack has said he wants to be in the 140 to 160 range so he isn't planning to really limit himself. He is going to step into the #2 role and take it. His stuff is the second best on the team and with this this pitching coaching staff I have high expectations. I am not too worried about injuries.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am semi glad they ripped the band-aid off. Payroll is going up next year unless there is a major tear down. Its the same situation as what I have stated, last year was a 1 off, this year is a bit of a 1 off. We will not be participating in FA for any major piece. The fact we got Correa was an aberration. In reality for the salaries given so far there was no game changer I wanted. Sonny's contract was the most reasonable in my opinion. It looks like he was never an option, but we also received draft compensation as well. Honestly, to me money aside, this is a better team than going into last year. Still going to come down to the play on the field.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I can put risk on now so yes I am trying to get to where that nest egg is built where we can live off of investment income. With a bank that is valued 29 cents on the dollar, I feel incredibly save, especially since debt is 15% of equity. There is literally no physical way the bank goes bankrupt. FDIC insured and audited, so feel good about the numbers. Beyond that, I don't chance sectors, and I do not know the pharmaceutical/healthcare sector well. My preferred areas - preferred reits when they get knocked down. Energy Sector after severe declines. Right now playing the 4 year cycle on crypto's that has played out to a T. But that is not to say the trend continues. Any other sector that is significantly beat up. Either find best of breed, diversify, or find company feel most comfortable with, and wait for sentiment and economics to change. I feel comfortable about the next year for my investments, but then you take your profits and significantly de-risk, because I will have achieved effectively my end game. IRA will be large, cash investments large. Minimal Roth, but not sure if will ever be able to take advantage of that.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Paddack at 140 to 160 innings isn't really going to constrict too much. Just basically means we won't let him go deep in games. I am really curious to see what he looks like. I honestly don't think we will be missing Gray too much 😉. As to Desclafani it all comes down to health. 2022 with the foot injury which they repaired (effectively never had the ligament, the body just compensated) seems like a 1 off. The elbow injury with the PRP injection is the bigger issue. Can the elbow hold out for 2024 and is he closer to the 2023 spring version and 2021 version. If the elbow starts to fail, he is toast for the year. For 4 million that is a good gamble with potential, #2 to #3 upside. We could have a #1 followed by 4 pitchers that are #2 or #3 quality. If so that would be a hell of a staff especially with the bullpen we should have this year.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    On my computer the question mark isn't showing up LOL. I keep getting my hopes up, you would think after 4-5 days I would figure it out 😉
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I went heavy and hard into MSTR in Oct of 2022. So far that is playing out fairly well. Planning to sell in March of 2024. Going to put 30% in spider. Also planning to put a decent chunk into a small bank that gives a 5% dividend and is well undervalued compared to its book value. If ever sold have an opportunity at a 300% return. A good forever hold that pays me to hold while seeing if the stock ever appreciates on its own or is in a sell out and gives a massive return. BKUTK. Very low float though. Not a traders stock.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Fyi I hate the thread topic, every time I see I think damn the Twins did it LOL.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is not at a crossroads unless the injury wasn't his issue. He has been an above average pitcher for us and I expect him to continue to be. He becomes a much better pitcher if he can develop more of the offspeed pitches, but so far, they just haven't developed, even with a team and coaching staff that emphasizes them. I don't anticipate major changes unless last season scared him a bit. I figure much of the same. Really good pitching followed by some stinkers.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Miller has the highest floor because of his defense. As to ceiling hard to say. I think at their peak, maybe De Andrade because of more power, but if so he will likely start having to move off of SS. I think both need work with the bats still but they have a path to make it. As to Millers stats early in the year compared to later in the year it appears he became much more selective and got much more walks and also was able to increase his power a bit. Having a better eye will play at all levels. I don't expect that to decline this year. Yes if he comes out with 600 OPS again that will be disappointing. If he can start coming out with a high .700 OPS or low .800 OPS as he did at the end of last year, that is a damn fine player with his defense. Its a similar situation to Kepler, was the 2nd half a mirage or did something fundamentally change. In both cases I think something fundamentally changed and I expect big things from both players.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Noahs .823 OPS in August in A+. compared to De Andrade .886 in August also in A ball is pretty compareable. Biggest difference I saw was Miller was a steady crescendo of improvement while De Andrade's was a bit all over the place - august appeared to be outlier to everything else. Its not that I am discounting De Andrade, its that I think Miller figured something out and with his defense, and higher lever has a leg up on De Andrade. He will also most likely get 1st crack at either SS or as the utility since further developed.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Yes, he also has the 21 year old Miller ahead of him, who I actually think has a better shot at being the next Twins shortstop of the future, as of right now. Millers bat clicked in the second half and his OBP went up every month after June. Damn impressive. We will see where both of these guys are this year. I think Millers defense is likely a little better. However, who has the better bat is definitely a toss up. Both good young prospects.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has some talent. He appears to be improving even as he goes up. He is showing as an elite prospect yet so 14 sounds about right. Curious which level they will put him at, keep him where he is at, or continue the aggressive approach and move him up a level.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Damn you have a high hurdle for late round prospects. The Twins are finding MLB players and prospects late in the draft on a routine basis. I am looking at players drafted in Rd 4 or later. 2017. Ober (12) 2018, Winder (7th) Funderburk (15) 2019 Varland (15th) 2020 Raya (4) 2021 Festa (13), Ohl (14) 2022 Morris (4), Jones (7) Matthews (8), Lewis (9), Culpepper (13) 2023 Hall (4), Questad (5) Stoffal (8), Dougherty (9), Dunn (10), Langenberg (11), Pasqualotto (12), Lee (13) What are you looking for or wanting. Out of the 17-19 drafts you have a #3 starter, a #5 starter (so far) and a reliever. In the 21-23 drafts you already have a current top 5 and top 10 prospect as a starting pitcher in Raya and Festa, and you have a crap load of talent in the 2022 and 2023 draft. Yes some will flake out, but you have a ton of options, a couple will rise to the top at minimum. That is out of draft picks that are expected to fail. That they have found any type of MLB talent is impressive.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Hall is going to succeed no matter what in my mind, its just going to be how good will he be. He is already a pitcher, he knows how to command a zone, hit locations, and have filth on the stuff he throws. He ran a 2.8 ERA in 2022 on 110 innings and a 2.48 ERA in 2023 on 110 inning. He is a stud already. You add a deadly slider/sweeper, and increase velocity 4 mph. Move him from 88-91 to 92 to 95 and watch out. For top 5 prospects in 2026 he is my safest pick. I have no doubt he will succeed and fly up through the minors and prospect boards. High end #2 pitcher is what I am looking for from him right now.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This is most likely a smokescreen, and other than being a left hand bat he would be a perfect fit here. The issue is do you skyrocket the payroll this year be damned. At that point you are 1 high level pitcher away from being a contender.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The 10% of fans that know about the impacts of the Bally's deal will follow the Twins no matter what. The rest of them don't care about a bally's deal, it depends on what product is on the field. If its good baseball, people will likely show up.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Stewart, breakout last year with us Topa breakout last year with new pitch Jackson - great era last year, but the peripheral numbers show may be aberration Staumont - great arm, questionable control, questionable health Okert solid lefty the last 4 years, numbers slightly up last year If 3-4 are solid from this group will have a great bullpen. You then have Weiss (see if we keep him) , Balazovic, Boushley, boyle, Duarte, Henriquez, Jensen, Lawyerson, Shulfer, Moran. All with decent arms and see if something clicks this year. Of that group I would say at least 1 or 2 will flash in the Twins system and you will find something usable. Lastly you have Canterino. I have a feeling he is going to perform very well. The question is he a SP or a RP.
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