Hawkeye Bean Counter

I am more worried about the back and lower leg injuries.

Yes in a vacuum on paper, the Twins were made worse last night. I would take Polanco over Topa and Desclafani. However as stated what is the chance Topa and Declafani outperform Polanco in WAR next year 25%, 30%, 40%. This gave the twins more ammo, and more money to make moves. As a singular trade for the MLB team yes your post has merits. In the big picture there is a lot more going on. With your thesis the Twins should have never traded Rogers? I am glad we have Paddack this year.

I tend to think back injuries and lower leg injuries can be chronic.

Yes we can throw Polanco in at 3rd and watch his atrocious defense for 20 games. We can put Polanco or Julien at 1st. Otherwise they are primarily DH bats. Solano found a lot of his at bats at 1st base (85 games), where Kiriloff and Gallo both struggled. If Topa was the only thing we got in return in the trade you may have an argument but then you are forgetting about 2 other decent parts and a flier as a pitching prospect. I think Desclafani is actually a decent piece. I think you could flip him for a minor prospect and keep all the cash. That would be interesting LOL. My guess he is a decent #4 and #5 for us next year. He has a chance to be a #2, but I think Paddack has the highest ceiling of any pitcher we have. Ryan and Ober could both continue to tweak and improve. I do think we took a step back currently on our starters for next year, but its not a massive step back. The reliever situation could be massively improved. If Declafani and the starter hold their own, then that means Varland is a reliever. If Varland and Topa both show what they did in the bullpen last year, then we have the potential at a shutdown bullpen that we have not had in a very long time. Then the cash comes into play and we can see what we do with that. Lastly you have Gonzalez. Whether he is flipped or we let him play and see how he does. He is a very interesting young prospect. I still think the pitching prospect is a flier.

So who realistically do the Twins get that you would be happy with? It takes 2 to tango. I think the Pablo trade, negates most of the concerns you have. We found our #1 pitcher, the hardest thing to find. I am willing to give the team a chance to find its #2 and it may already be on the team.

Just to make sure you are calling 8 million dollars, a very solid reliever, a top 100 prospect and Desclafani, fat that needed trimmed???? I agree with some of your takes this is just dumb. Now could the trade go sideways, absolutely. Could Polo get injured for the season in spring training, absolutely. Just as much possibility as Gonzalez raking and having the highest BA in high A ball (like he did in A ball) and establishing himself as one of the top 4 prospects in our system. We traded from a position of strength. Now we have more to do. If we add an additional right handed bat, it immensely changes the calculus on this trade. If we use one of these parts from this trade or another similar piece to trade for a high end starter, it changes the calculus on this trade. Its pretty clear we got the most value that anyone was willing to offer for Polanco. I seem to remember similar consternation for the trade of Rogers for Pagan and Paddack. No offense but the Twins won that trade hands down. Its taken some time, and an additional contract, but we are looking at 2 years of a healthy Paddack and we got a decent Pagan last year. The twins management are very willing to take on a lot of risk in their trades. Over time, and over multiple trades, that risk taking tends to payoff. It can take time. They also have clearly targeted injured players in trade returns. The biggest trade not working out was Mahle. However the Rogers for Paddack and Pagan, the twins trade for Maeda obviously worked in the Twins advantage. Paddack has the potential of being a homerun.

I will laugh though if the Twins flip Gonzalez and a prospect or a current pitcher for a high end #2. Would make a lot of this consternation all for naught.

Saying Desclafani and Topa will not help the team in 2024 is your perspective only. Now its clear the Twins wanted Miller or Woo and were close, but ultimately its clear the Mariners were not going to part with either. Polanco was never going to get you that high end starter you want. If the Twins want to go for that, its going to cost 1 of 5 players, Lewis, Julien, Lee or Walker and possibly Soto. Mariners were the team willing to offer the most for Polanco, end of story, they maximized their value with what the Mariners were willing to give up and they were unwilling to go Miller or Woo. Where is that high end starter coming from, you are also ignoring that the Twins could do something else this offseason or 2 that you may have more pieces to trade for a starter at the deadline. I think Topa and Desclafani are more than just a low end pen arm and cross your fingers starter. Right now its your #3 to #4 reliever, and most likely a #4 to #5 starter that has the possibility at being a strong #3, low end #2. Also if Desclafani is the real deal, it allows Varland to become a full time reliever, and now we are talking about a very very strong bullpen. Look there is a ton of projection here. You are also projecting that Polanco can stay healthy. This trade gave us additional flexibility, it added to our coffers for another potential move as well. I will wait to see what the final roster is, but I like the trade. The majority of this trade is tied to Gonzalez though.

Dylan Bundy average 89 mph on fastball, and Desclafani averaging 93 mph (but closer to his average of 94 to 95 mph early in the season when healthy are completely different situations). Bundy's injuries had already zapped his velocity.

No one knows what their values are going to come in at. We are starting to get into crunch time, also read my post I said most likely higher. Its hard to know, if things solidify with TV contracts if the Twins would be willing to open the purse strings. Right now on a 1 year deal JD Martinez would be the best bat we can get that would also be a RH.

I would disagree that I actually think Topa is the steadiest player in the trade. Big claim I know :). However he developed the cutter in 2022. It has become extremely effective. Its no different than Pressley figuring some things out Houston. Yes can he be a flash in the pan yes. The Mariners really wanted to keep him though. Polanco really comes down to the legs and lower back healthy or not or are they going to become a perpetual issue? I would lean towards healthy. Desclafani, is effectively a 3 outcome player. Healthy back to performance early in 2023 and 2021. Healthy but age catching up- an effective #4, #5 inning eating pitcher. Or arm is cooked and he is done. Its questionable, and a risk - its hard to know what those probabilities are. If its the first 2 outcomes Twins have a good chance of winning the trade before even the outcome on the prospects. Yes Gonzalez is a wildcard. Similar to EROD. Hard to project until higher in the minors and they are very different in styles, need to see how they they refine their skills. Also no offense, stating a 19 year hasn't conquered the strike zone in high A ball is a very interesting statement. He just turned 20. Its like saying Max Clark is overrated because he struggled in A ball in his cup of coffee. This year has a lot of impact on Gonzalez's value. If he does well in A+ ball suddenly his value increases much more and we get a major steal in the trade, if he struggles or flatline a lot of shine comes off the trade. Now with E Rod, you increase your chances that you will have 1 player be successful. Gonzalez has been on a rampage since debuting in the Dominican Summer League in 2021, compiling a career .307/.393/.491 slash line with 14 home runs and 18 steals in 121 games across the DSL, Arizona Complex League and Single-A. He was young for all of those levels and turned 19 in January, and he could open the year with an aggressive assignment to High-A. A right fielder who projects for above-average to plus game power, Gonzalez has excellent bat-to-ball skills and probably swings a bit too much at this stage. Additionally, he probably uses the opposite field too much (40.6 Oppo% at Single-A, 38.1 Oppo% in the ACL), although it shows how in control he is at the dish. Gonzalez's 53.6 GB% at Single-A was too high, but he has been adept at getting the ball in the air at previous stops, so that could just be a small-sample blip. Gonzalez is built kind of like Wander Franco, and projects to be a bit more compact than typical power/speed outfielders, so the expectation should be that his bat will drive his value, not his legs.

I never said 1 year deals. What happens if the go for 6 years $18 million. Yes it seems like there is a lot of competition. I have no idea what the final numbers will come in at, most likely higher but its worth looking into. As to the Twins, you fully move Varland to the bullpen and you run with effectively 6 starters. Anymore it seems you need that depth, and whether due to performance or injury can usually find enough starts for everyone. Otherwise yes you start to have some assets to trade, especially if Desclafani appears to be healthy.

Ive said in other posts and these individuals may sign for higher per a year and I think for the right player the Twins may push to $18 to $20 mil per a year, but I think you have to look at Bellinger, Clevinger, Montgomery, JD Martinez, Ryu, Hendriks (dependent on when available), Most likely we spread it out on a few pieces.

So he developed a cutter in 2022 that has become his best pitch. That does increase the likelihood of continued success.

LOL was wrong on Bellinger being Right handed. Still fits positionally but yes this likely does not fit the right handed bat we need.

The issue is their win now move is right now only a 1 year deal, possibly 2 if they pick up his option. Polanco as of now is the best player traded. However what do you think the odds are Topa and Desclafani have a higher WAR than Polanco? 25%, 30%, 40%, 50%? If Desclafani is healthy it goes much higher. This also ignores the net 5.75 million that they want to utilize and use $10 to $15 million on a position player that we likely don't get without this deal. I am really interested to see where they go on the FA market. Gonzalez currently - as 18 year old, killed rookie ball, struggled in A ball, 19 killed A ball, struggle in A+ ball. Yes if he struggles in high A this year a lot of his shine come off. If he rakes In A+ ball this year you have another E Rod. Its either an asset in a trade, or Twins can see if they can help him in high A ball. If he does well again, he is firmly a top prospect and someone the Twins well be very glad to have in their system.

I think they go depth but if you are going impact with $15 mil to $20 mil your choices are: Bellinger- excellent positional fit, does not fit the Twins philosophy of high exit velocities JD Martinez- high end bat, limited flexibility. Pitchers, Clevinger, Montgomery, Snell come in the 15 million to low $20 mil range per a year. Then you have Ryu at around $8 mil and Hendriks, as a reliever at $9 million which could be interesting (should be back around deadline time). Most likely we go the depth route, but we still have the possibility of making a bit of a splash signing.

The writer of this article is a bit off. The Twins tend to trade from surplus. With Julien ready to take your 2nd base position, Lee waiting in the wings, as good as Polanco has been for us, he was a bit redundant. Unless Julien is going to be your DH or 1st baseman, there are not enough starts at 2nd to maximize the value of Polanco and Julien. So what did we learn with the trade Miller and Woo were the primary targets by the Twins, but Seattle was unwilling to trade them. So they came up with a package that worth similar to each of those players. I see a lot of hate for Desclafani. He is basically Paddack all over again that we are hoping is healthy again. A player that has been successful in the past. He has been injured the last 2 seasons - 2022 with a leg injury, 2023 with flexor injury in which he received a PRP injection in his right elbow. I am putting the money in the deal with Desclafani, which was $8 million dollars. Last year before the injury his OPS+ in April was 68, in May was 93. That is a really good pitcher then you look back at 2021 and you see he has the upside of a #2 or #3 - for $4 million. If the elbow is cooked, we are out $4 million. However, I think at the very least he can be a #4 or #5 or a spot starter if healthy and he stated he was healthy as of this fall. Plus go look at the contracts for #5 pitchers this year, Flaherty ($14 mil), Severino ($13 mil), Gibson ($13 mil) Paxton ($11 mil), Lynn ($11 mil), Miley ($8.5mil), Perez ($8mil). The cost of innings is increasing immensely. At the very least its a depth move, with the upside to add a #2 to #3 pitcher to the staff if healthy and maximizes ability. Then you get the 2 key piece of the deal. Topa, was our version of Brock Stewart except he did it the full year. We are seeing more and more reliefers that are figuring it out in their 30's. Hendriks figured it out age 30, Pressley figure it out age 29. So there is an aspect, that I could see Topa has finally figured it out. You also have the possibility that he is a flash in the pan like Lopez. I think he has shown more than Lopez in my personal opinion which increases his chance of being successful, and that the Mariners did not want to give him up. We had depth in the line up and SP last year, and this year the depth is there in the SP and RP. We have a lot of quality arms. There are a few question marks, but the depth is there. Gonzalez, raked in A ball last year then struggled in high A as a 19 year old. He did a similar set up as an 18 year old raking in rookie ball then struggling in A ball. There is a little risk here. However there is as strong a chance that he continues to improve each year, and will rake again at A+ ball. If he hits well in A+ ball this year, Twins likely win the trade, if he doesn't or the Twins are concerned at what he can do then you are better off shipping him for another either MLB player. He does fill a need in our minor league system or a right handed outfield bat with a high ceiling low floor. Seattle really wanted Polanco, and to get rid of Desclafani, he achieved that but it was fairly costly to achieve that objective. It also shows how valuable players like Polanco and Kepler are which I have been pounding the table for for the last year. We did not get that high end starting pitcher, but we added significant depth to the MLB team and to the minors. 1 other note. Twins stated they are going to use the money to get a position player. And have $10 to $15 million possibly higher. It is interesting where that money will go. Bellinger seems pie in the sky, but would be a perfect fit for the team, 1st base/CF (to give insurance to Buxton). The other bat I am interested in is J.D. Martinez, but that doesn't quite match up with a position player. Neither of these will come to fruition, but that is what I am interested in on the batter side. I still do see a possibility we trade for a high end Starter. I give this trade a solid A but it does hurt losing Polanco.

If you are going for a high end starter with multiple years, you have to know its for Brooks Lee or Julien. Those will be the key pieces. Otherwise you are looking for a lower level starter for a year or two for Polanco, Farmer and/or lower prospect.

They state they are looking at FA and trade market. I would guess that have contingency plans were something not to work out like they expect it to. They have someone targeted, now its just a wait and see if it comes to fruition. I would assume someone with multiple years of controllability is my guess.

No offense, but for me, Martin, Kiersey and Thompson are all about the same right now. Heresy LOL. What I mean is they are all in the AAA area on the verge of moving up. I have no problem seeing who of the 3 has the hot hand to likely fill a bench spot at some point this season. If Thompson flashes enough in spring training then he may remain on the 40 man. We have ample fringe players to drop. I am not too worried about a lottery ticket, but at the same point you never know when you might find something useful.

I think he has a little more value than that. Lets be clear Castro had always been an utility infielder prior to last year, we just had much more need in the outfield. So more opportunity opens for him if a Polanco and/or Farmer are traded. We still have a glut of infielders so who knows. I honestly don't think he will do anything he has now bounced around 5 teams in less than a year. Ranger, Royals, Reds, Yankees and now Twins. whether being a AAAA type player like Cave, he most likely won't ever figure out major league pitching to be effective. The difference with Castro is he had flashed before in small sample sizes. Inevitable there will be an injury and hole to fill and we are just likely adding another player to the mix to pick from. He does however have firstly, supreme athleticism, and if he can ever increase contact on the ball and/or his OBP he can be a terror on the base paths.

Look at the article on Willie Castro last year. Pretty similar feelings, and so little notice on him it got a total of 3 responses LOL.

He has had 2 poor seasons in the MLB, Jose Miranda anyone? I wouldn't stick a fork in him yet. He had an OPS of .820 in AAA in 2022 and .733 OPS in 2023. The bat is likely light. A new environment may work, but he has to make it through the next 3 months, and I would put that at 50/50. Likely just filling a spot with a lottery ticket and hoping something clicks. He would fill a niche, a speedy RH outfielder. Similar to Castro last year. We picked him on a minor league deal. Speed kills in the current game play evidenced by Arizona. No one expected Castro to perform as well as he did. We are clearly still in the season of picking up as many of these reclamation projects as possible. Most won't work but every once in a while you find someone like Castro in these minor deals.

My breakout candidate is Noah Miller. The defense is there, the bat is slowly, slowly coming around. Here is his slash line for August and Sept. .260/.360/.430 He has been a lot like Kepler (actually worse with the bat) where he has regularly struggled for average and doing any other significant damage. He had 7 of his 9 home runs in the last 3 months and the average, obp, slugging and ops were all up significantly. I think he finally is starting to adjust to the pitching and what he needs to do to be successful. I expect him to slot into a utility role in a few years. Let the defense play up and anything he does with the bat is gravy. Like Kepler I think something clicked in the 2nd half. Other Breakout Candidates- 1. (8) Brandon Winokur - I expect the bat to continue to rake and his athleticism and defense will continue to play up. I am fully expecting him to be a top 5 prospect by the end of the year. 2. (15) Tannner Hall - an elite pitcher with low velocity but plus off speed pitches going into the Twins pitching lab adding velocity sounds like an extreme winner. I am curious if he starts in A+ ball or they put all the rookies from last year into A ball. 3. One of the other rookie pitchers. One will breakout and be an absolute stud just don't know which one. 4 and 5. Canterino and Priellip. I am expecting both to be healthy and dealing this year. I am very optimistic on the minors, there is a lot of talent coming up through the system and the 2023 draft has the potential to be a game changer.