Hawkeye Bean Counter

Yes if he has close to a .900 OPS or hight in A or/or A+ ball he will be a top 5 prospect most likely.

To be fair you asked 2 questions in that post, one if I had seen them which I ignored and the second was which rodriguez it was 😁 They had a video replay of one of the FCL games. Both Winokur and Jenkins looked really good, smooth athletic. Good swings, although Winokur does seem to swing for the fence a bit. Both players looked fairly seasoned for being 18 years old. That is where projection comes in. Jenkins bat to ball skills were slightly better, but for the most part Winokur hung with Jenkins and beyond those 2 the FCL team didn't have much, maybe 1 other solid bat so they really weren't protected much. What was interesting to me was Jenkins did better in A ball than FCL. I would be curious if we would see the same improvement in Winokur or a drop off like Max Clark. These are young players so plenty of valleys, for certain for these players. I just think Winokur although a large player, has decent bat to ball skills and already with immense power (I think hit if not the farthest one of the farthest home runs in the draft combine. If we were to get lucky and all of Winokur, Rodriguez and Jenkins pan out, that is a hell of a defensive and offensive outfield in 2-3 years.

its Emmanuel, he has immense plate discipline, still some high strike outs. Yes I see Winokur as a similar type level as Emmanual, with the same risks. If you look at them both 50 hit tools, 60 power, then speed and defense Winokur has an actual bit of an advantage. Now he may lose that if he gets bigger. Winokur will have to rely on better hitting with more power than Rodriguez. Rodriguez if he can keep the OBP needs to increase his power a bit, or give up a little walks for more hits. Both players have sky high ceilings, I think Winokurs is higher. Thats where I think both should be higher than the pitchers mentioned earlier. The upside is what is intriguing.

E Rodriguez struck out 56 times in 153 plate appearances in the FCL in 2021. Winokur struck out 23 times in 71 plate appearances. We are talking extremely SSS but in his first 11 games (50 plate appearances) struck out 18 times. In his last 6 games (21 plate appearances) struck out 5 times. I think we will see improvement in the strikeouts as he gets more acclimated to better pitching. A potential 60 power, 60 speed player in a 6 ft 5 frame is insane. You have a starter kit that has the possibility to turn into an Aaron Judge type player. Same concerns with Judge as Winokur - concern over the hit tool. Now will he find the power while maintaining the speed and defense like Judge, most likely not. There is only 1 Judge. He is also just out of high school. However both Winokur and Jenkins have elite ceilings.

On MLB trade rumors it came out today that Seattle isn't really interested in trading their top 4 pitchers. Maybe they will change their minds, but at this point I am not even considering Seattle as an option at this point.

I am still hoping we can find a #2 or higher out of the farm system by 2026. Who are those possibilities: 1. Canterino (20%) - has the stuff hasn't shown the health or stamina. 2. Priellip, (20%) - just like canterino, has the ability and arm looked good early before being shut down again. 3. Raya (20%) - maybe not quite the ability and questionable health but in the same ballpark. 4. Hall (30%) - Hall is a pitchers pitcher, elite in college without elite stuff, if the Twins can improve some velocity he could easily fly through the system. 5. Festa, Lewis, Culpepper 10% - All have shown well but most likely just #3 or #4 pitchers in the MLB. 6. Soto Questad(0%) - It will take more than 2 years of seasoning. They are both projects at this point. 5. Morris SWR (less than 10%). possibilities here but most likely not #2 type pitchers. You have the box of chocolates with the rest of the 2023 draft class. I think at least 1 to 2 will emerge along with Hall.

Winokur has more upside than Culpepper, and much less injury risk than Canterino. I see him as more skilled and powerful Rodriguez. Rodriguez is primarily just OBP right now. Both with high strike out potential but potentially more hit tool with Winokur less control of the strike zone. Keaschall is a borderline top 10 prospect. Its odd, they will give Priellip, Soto, Canterino (injury or very little innings pitched) the benefit of the doubt, but get a good performance by Winokur in an admittedly small sample size and leave him off. I could argue Winokur has the highest ceiling of any of the 4 players.

The name doesn't really matter. Will likely come from Marlins or Seattle, and will likely be a #3 pitcher the Twins think they can improve.

As it stands I think Kepler is right on the cusp of a QO. For comparisons sake Candelario got 3 years $45 mil and on a 1 year deal would have been closer to $20 mil. Its a coin flip as it stands regarding the QO. Then it comes down to what do you expect Kepler to do next year at the plate. Did something fundamentally change at the end of last year compared to the previous seasons - even still he has been a 2 WAR player each of the last 3 seasons. I think Max became more aggressive to at the end of the season evidenced by his increasing swing percentage particularly early in the count. He was taking good aggressive swings on pitches he could handle, rather than making weak contact with 2 strikes. I think we will see some give and take this year with Kepler but I anticipate a better overall season than last year (he doesn't have to be as good as he was at the end of the season, just avoid the extremely slow start). So do the Twins trade him. This all comes down to value just like last year. I think the Twins hold on to him unless blown away with a trade deal. I think they are more willing to cut a deal on Polanco, but we can wait and see on that. If Kepler has a good season the Twins benefit from the good season and a QO compensation. If not you had a viable outfielder while we begin to try to reconfigure what the future outfield will be. We will see what happens.

This is exactly correct. Had they announced as a $460 million contract, there would have been no issues, the issues is people think because they announce it as a 700 million contract. No it is $460 million where instead of paying the player they will put 46 million into an investment vehicle most likely interest bearing accounts that will then be able to pay the $68 million starting in 10 years. The future payments will be paid for and no issues. When MLB tv was talking about it earlier today it sounded as if only 2 million was being counted against tax money, once I looked into it I see no issues with the deal or the structure. Its just different.

One could argue on a 1 year deal he would be closer to $20 million as well.

3 years $45 million for Candelario, proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer, especially if he has a decent year with the bat.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/8/14/23830490/mlb-minnesota-twins-max-kepler-is-locked-in-sweet-spot-crushing-fastballs When you are hitting balls with more velocity and better launch angles than slow rollers to second base, yes you will go from a player that had the worst babip for 3 years running to a much higher babip. He was a 4 WAR during that period, an 8-9 WAR extrapolated for the season. No I don't expect that high of a babip. But to run higher than previous is a decent expectation where he was a 2 WAR with .230 BA. He is an excellent player in the .250 to .260 BA.

First off I am expecting Kepler to be at minimum a 3.5 to 4 WAR player this year with his offensive changes. This is all perceived Value. I think teams value Kepler more than we do. Is he borderline, Yes he is borderline, but I think when all is said and done he will be and it won't be borderline. It may be right it may be wrong. All I am saying is I think the Twins value him more than fans (similar to Pagan who got a 2 year 16 mil contract), I think teams value Kepler more than fans, and the Twins have needs in the outfield for 2024 so would likely need a large compensation in a trade to make it work.

Thats not what I am asking you to do. However there were 2 specific changes that helped Kepler in 2023. 1 is less shift. Second, being much more aggressive at the plate, and wanting to hit balls earlier in counts. If it gets pushed to higher counts we are in a similar situation as prior years except he has more confidence. Even still a 2-3 WAR Kepler which he has been for the last 3 seasons as you showed is very close to a QO type player worth in the 18 mil to 20 mil area. Kepler with a new approach is likely a higher WAR player than the 2-3 baseline. We will see this year. I am guessing Teoscar is in the 4 year 20 million area for a contract possibly higher (70-80 mil is effectively my baseline) and I don't think he would have accepted the qualifying offer. The Twins for 1 year would take the risk on Kepler. Kepler wants to sign a contract next year, not wait another year especially if he has a poor performance or injury.

I am more than willing to revisit this next offseason 😀. Salaries are going bonkers just look at free agency right now, the threshold for $50 million is extremely low anymore.

Even if I stated 4-5 WAR player fine. What would you say if I told you Kepler was a 4 WAR player for 3 months last year? because thats what he was. Now how does that extrapolate to this year? Does that mean he is a peak 8 WAR type player? That is more where I was gathering a 5-6 WAR. His last 3 months he was an elite hitter. Just watch Teoscar Hernandez. He is more similar to Kepler than Verdugo. I think Seattle will be regretting not putting the QO on. As to the number of QO its because this is an extremely weak free agent class.

I agree with Finn I don't think Prato is picked although I said the same thing about Baddoo and Prato is a better bat. I think we sneak through with no one being picked. Even still Prato is just another bat in this system.

Honestly, we should be more happy with this offseason if Buck is going to be healthy. I know we feel like Lucy, however, I don't think Buck ever felt well at any point last season or for the last couple years for that matter. If he is back to his elite self that dramatically changes the dynamic of the team.

No, only if they signed a player that was offered a Qualifying Offer, I think we can safely say we are ok on that front.

Honestly Kepler has quite a bit more value. Most will look at me oddly but then lets talk about the reasons. 1st, they both started about the same time, but Kepler has an over 20 WAR compared to Verdugo's 11. Peak Kepler is worth 5-6 WAR a year. I think the 3 WAR is peak Verdugo advantage Kepler. Kepler plays better defense than Verdugo. Kepler performed much better to end the season OPS plus 127 for second half last year compared to .7 for Verdugo (effectively their halves were flipped last year - would prefer a player played well recently than not). Lastly is the value to the Twins. Currently we do not have a surplus of outfielders. Red Sox have more outfielders than they know what to do with right now. They are more just removing one of the excess, and Verdugo was no longer in their long term plans or this year, it was in their interest to trade. For us it really isn't. Lastly, in a Qualifying offer situation the Twins would get a late 1st round pick. For the Red Sox it would be a much lower pick. I know some don't think Kepler will get the qualifying offer, I actually think its a pretty high chance. So I think the player would be better than effectively Judice and Fitts. Neither really move the needle. I think we would be looking for a prospect closer to a Chase Petty type player. Thats my opinion and many may think I am over valuing but I would guess compensation would come closer to that type of deal.

Teams generally don't put a pitcher on an innings limit because of Tommy John, its more due to the strength of the arm and previously handling that many innings. Personally I could see Paddack going 130 innings next year possibly 140 if the arm looks strong. They may skip a start or two, but beyond that they have him on a 2 year contract. If he blows out the arm again he is likely done. A few more innings likely isn't going to determine if it holds up or not. He will be a full 2 years removed from the Tommy John so it should be strong and healthy, which he looked this fall. After a 2nd Tommy John it is unheard of to gain velocity, and thats what Paddack did. He dialed it up to 98. Now it was the playoffs, but he was regularly in the 95 to 96 range on his 2-3 inning outing. He is throwing it easy, and the command of the secondary pitches looks really good. Stuff wise, I would argue he is maybe right there with Pablo. Maybe a little below. I am expecting his fastball to hover in the 94-95 range next year. If he can be our #3 or #4 pitcher this year with possibly being our #2 in the playoffs this year, then being our #2 in 2025 I think that would be the ideal situation.

I know Gilbert has been mentioned several times. But for the value I really like Bryan Woo. https://pitcherlist.com/bryan-woos-repertoire-is-the-blueprint-for-modern-pitching/ I have no idea what a package would look like. I said before that I don't think Kepler would get traded, but if you wanted to build a package around Kepler and a minor prospect - effectively a massive overpay, I could see that. Seattle picked him off of waivers so for them they don't have a lot invested. It works for both teams, a little less for the Twins but you would be able to get a pretty good pitcher in return with lots of control. It would be ironic if we then turned around and picked up Teoscar Hernandez, while also not shedding any salary in the maneuver for 2 years. it would really solidify the SP and OF for a little cost. It would likely mean Polanco getting traded for a prospect, but I think the Twins would work with that. It still would leave a hole at 1st base that they state they want to fill. I think 1 of Rhys Hoskins or Hernandez could be potentially targets for the Twins, but I may be wrong. Really hoping we get a little more clarity on their plans for this offseason at the winter meetings.

LOL, this thread reminds me, we need to switch to decaf 😁. We seem to be getting worried about details and possibilities that should be figured out in the offseason. I am glad we have Lee and Julien, I am also glad we have Pablo. I trust management will do its best to put a quality team on the field next year, just like they have done since they got here. The pitching staff is night and day better than 2018 to 2020 and we are finally starting to establish a bit of a pipeline in the minors.

I think Pablo is starting to establish himself as a #1 and could see him have a better season even next year on a WAR basis. Ryan struggle with health especially down the stretch. That he could do better is not out of the question. Ober will most like be pretty similar. Then you have Paddack. Even on an innings limit, I really liked the way he pitched last year. The velocity was there, and the breaking pitches looked good. No I still think as a whole it may be a little lower than next year as it stands. However look at the playoff teams you had quite a few in the 10-20 range that did really well. As long as there isn't a massive dropoff I am ok with that. Would I love to get another #2 pitcher, absolutely. However there is a cost. I am ok with trading Lee or Julien and of the two I do think Lee likely nets you the best player. As to Lee if he is the MLB team, I would say he has a 5-10% chance to win the rookie of the year. He has name recognition, and any player could get hot for a couple months. This is a balance of handling the long term needs of the team along with the short term. We effectively gutted the 2021 draft for MLB needs and up to this point have been able to replenish the minors and the depth in the minors actually looks very very good. I will wait to see what happens and will likely be ok with whatever decision is made.