Hawkeye Bean Counter

Severino and Camargo added to the 40 man. Now the other 2 big ones left are Austin Martin and Emmanuael Rodriguez. There are a few others, but those are the most likely 4.

He is low cost option. Not a terrible option, but he has as good of a shot at being a turkey as he does being a really good pitcher next year. He has lost all confidence, and I believe a lot of spin in the last couple years along a dip in velocity. He needs a remake. Maybe the twins can do that adding an additional pitch and increasing the spin rates again. If they want to take a shot fine, but likely not someone I would be targeting.

Priellip dropping is meaningless to me. Due to injury a player shouldn't drop. Now it will come down to performance next year. If he performs well, he is one of our top options as a #1 or #2 SP and fyi he is a left hander. Similar to Paddack, to see what the true value is we need patience. I am cautiously optimistic he pans out. I agree with the other 2 on the list.

The major issue would be April and first weeks of May and end of Sept. Most of those channels have an overflow channel as well. Thus could do both at once. The station could decide what to air on the main station.

Last year Correa was not overpaid, he had a 5.5 WAR - if you go with the 10 million per a WAR then you are at 55 million, this year he had a 1.4 WAR. In total about 7 war or 70 mil. That is also ignoring he had foot issues hindering his ability both in the field and at the plate all year. His performance in the playoffs was exceptional. We don't need a miraculous jump, we just need him to get back to normal. So no offense but it appears you are a bit of hater 😉

I think you are completely missing the point. The interesting decision for the Twins is are they just satisfied with the draft compensation or are they going to try to to sign Gray. As to the contract the Twins would be getting it isn't a discount. In general, Gray hasn't been view as a top end starter and is not going to get the value of the stats that he provided this year. That isn't the Twins fault. That the Twins will be giving a qualifying offer means another team is not only giving salary, they are also losing a draft pick. Ultimately it gives the Twins more leverage and creates a bit of discount built into the contract. I am curious if his contract is more in the 60 mil range as projected or closer to the 100 mil based on his stats and performance.

Josh Donaldson and Correa were the top end free agents to sign with the Twins. Yes he would be the first high level pitcher to sign. If I am the Twins I don't see how if he is willing to sign you don't do a 3 year contract for $63-$66 million with an option year. His stats he should be worth 80 to 100 mil or more, but he is not a fire thrower and there is massive expectation of regression and future decline. This is going to be the most interesting decisions the Twins make this year in my opinion.

Odds are he still walks. More money than what the Twins are willing to offer is the likely scenario. However if he is willing to leave money on the table to stay with the Twins, they may find a deal for both parties. He is a high end #2 pitcher. Even with some regression his style of pitching likely does well over the next couple of years. It is all about location and using a variety of pitches to keep the hitter guessing.

Graterol and Maeda deal is pretty close to completed and fairly even. So the question is Lopez 4 years, Gray 3-4 years/first round draft pick, Ryan and might as well throw in Julien is better than Petty Steer, CES, Hajjar and Arraez 2 years. The answer is an emphatic yes as of now. Yes the Mahle trade turned out badly and I thought it was an overpay from the start. In the same context, Julien as a prospect was behind Arraez, Steer and CES. Performance wise Julien looks to have better long term potential than Steer and CES. We have a glut of infielders, trades are necessary and you won't win on all of them. However the Twins have done pretty well on their bigger trades.

Petty was having arm soreness to start the year. I think the diagnosis was generally the pre diagnosis of an injured UCL. Now He came back and the arm was healthy. With any young arm the concern is injury, yes he looks good for a 20 year old. His fastball (sinker) has dialed back quite a bit averaging 91 to 95 and tops at 97, The curveball is his best pitch and has the possibility of being a plus pitch. The change up is still a work in progress. He had a cup of coffee in AA, I wouldn't consider the 2 starts to be evidence of anything yet. Honestly I know he is rising up the Reds board a bit, but I just don't see a dominant top line starter unless the velocity picks back up. That is close to Joe Ryan territory (fyi Joe had a 1.42 ERA in A+ ball compared to Petty's 1.95 ERA this year). Its not to say he can't be a very good or effective starter for the Reds but the odds of him becoming a front line starter are slimmer now with the decrease in velocity. Sonny in 2 years has given us 7.8 WAR. 3 years of Joe Ryan has netted us 3.8. Basically Petty has to be a better than Joe Ryan throughout 6 years to make it an even trade, let alone trying to calculate the time value and what will occur with Sonny. The Twins don't look back at all from this trade. as stated earlier its a win/win. You got 2 years of elite pitching. You then have the ability to potentially resign him to a decent deal or receive a compensatory pick and possibly pick up another high level pitching prospect.

Its leaving the Twins in a win/win situation regarding Gray. If you are able to sign Gray to a reasonable contract, great, makes the trade of Petty even more worth it on the Twins side. With Paddack you would have 3 really strong arms with Ryan and Ober pulling up the back end of the starting rotation. If Paddack improves and Gray regresses slightly but Lopez performs like a #1 this is a pitching staff that has the ability to help a team win it all. However if the Twins are unable or unwilling to come to a deal they get a compensatory pick. Now the question is can they find someone else on the free agent market or will they have to do another trade. Who knows, they may just run with what they have to start the year.

Here is how you prepare to replace Sonny. 1. You resign him. We have that option, and if he performs anywhere close to the last 2 years you will likely get a surplus on the deal. I acknowledge you are giving up a a 1st round pick likely in the 33-35 pick range. I am fully a big draftnik guy, but I can see the value in resigning Sonny. You have to expect some regression to the mean, even still I see him giving 6-7 WAR over 3 years. 2. Paddack- honestly he looks more dominant in a couple innings than Gray. Considering he likely doesn't still have full command what he did in the playoffs was amazing. Now the Twins expect the velocity to dial back to 95 mph, however, that will be nasty especially with additional sweeper and better pitch sequencing. 3. Make sure you have 6-7 pitching options for next year. You do that and will give you enough pitching depth through out the year and relief options. I am leaning more and more to resigning Gray as I just don't see any other player that would be willing to sign with us from the top group. 3 years with a tiered down salary for 60 to 70 million would be reasonable. Now will Sonny see that as reasonable and how competitive will that be with other teams. If you can get the deal done though, I really like a top 5 rotation of Lopez, Paddack, Gray, Ryan and Ober. That will be heads and shoulders above what many other teams will be throwing out there. Gives you Varland, Festa, SWR as potential fill in options, or Varland can move full time to the bullpen and you pick up another pitcher to swing between AAA and MLB. The other option would be to trade one of your pitching prospects likely Soto and try to replicate another Sonny Gray situation. Knowing you have the ability to pick up another high school pitcher in the 2024 draft it would effectively be be swap and less salary. It really comes down to how much the Twins like Soto and whether a team with a controlled Pitcher would like Soto. I think the Twins will get an additonal pitcher, whether signing one or trading for one. I just think how well the pitching depth worked for the Twins this year that they will try to do it again. I also think some Pitchers may be willing to take a pillow deal to see if the Twins can fix them. Think someone like a Giolito, although personally I think he is declining rapidly.

It will be interesting how many depth pieces, 40 spots ect the Twins will use on the younger players. 3 names not mentioned a ton but performed really well that I think are at risk of being lost are Williams Prato and Helman. Or at least trade pieces. Here are the following AAA infield hitters that look like they have a shot in the MLB - Prato, Helman, Severino, Lee, Williams. I am not too worried about rule 5 as they have the potential to open a ton of spots. Headrick, Balazovic, Alcala, De Leon, henriquez, Ortega, Sands plus all the other spots of free agents. There is a lot of fluff at the end of our 40 man. I would be willing to drop any of the relievers to retain the batters mentioned above. I could see the continued youth movement giving the Twins a lot more options next year and in the future.

What this shows is the Twins run a solid organization. The pitchers specifically improved and there are more arms coming. Also yes he vented some frustration last year, but it seems the Twins listened. Having a 2 way conversation always makes the player feel better. Gray really seems to do well in a small or smaller mid market organization. I believe he knows this. Its fairly obvious those comments from earlier in the year about retiring are thing of the past. So we have 1 side willing it appears. There is still significant hurdles to make a deal come to fruition. First the Twins also have to be interested. Secondly once money starts getting thrown around he would have to take a reasonable deal with the Twins, I have a feeling a few teams will throw out some high numbers. If we are signing we have to know that this is likely his high water mark and this year will be incredibly difficult to replicate. I think his average year are usually a 1 to 2 WAR. Next thing you have to calculate is what is the value of the pick if he were to sign for more else where if you gave him the Qualifying Offer, there is a possibility but unlikely that he would accept. I think Sonny wants to cash in on this year though and mentioned 3-4 more years. I said yesterday I felt his chance of resigning were better than 0 but still low.

Royce Lewis should not be on the list. As to Gray it happens, it wasn't a horrible outing but wasn't great, however we were never going to win that game. We had 1 run in that game. Gray could have pitched a gem and we still lose the game. Game 4 - main culprits 1. Thielbar 2 run home run. 2. Ump that called 3rd strike on Kepler. Any batter not named Julien or Lewis. No hits although Polanco and Correa both had rips. Game 3 Kiriloff, without the error I think that game could have gone much differently Game 1 I felt was a throw away game so not going to really place any blame here. For me Kiriloff and his 0 for how many and the error rises to the top of my list. 2nd is Thielbar Julien definitely has some things to clean up and improve, but he is our best professional hitter right now.

I will take that bet. Here is my probabilities High Probability - Solano, Taylor. Solano is by far the best hitter and provided suitable defense. The Twins won because of their depth including Solano and Taylor. I think both are high on the Twins priority for depth signings 50/50 - Twins have seemed to like Pagan more than any other fan. That they were rewarded this year, may encourage them to try again, even though in general they do not give contracts to relievers. Low probability - Gray, Maeda and Mahle. Signing Gray would negate a possible draft pick, however of all the pitchers, he has an excellent track record and wouldn't break the bank. Of the top pitchers he will likely end up with the cheapest contract. His comment about wanting to make a run in the playoffs also caught my eye, I think he fits best in a mid market team and he knows it after his Yankee experience, if he thinks the Twins have a the highest probability of small market teams to make a run in the future he may be willing to sign with the Twins. Everything in my gut says no, but we also went through the Correa saga last year. Maeda is also another player that would likely come fairly cheap for his expected performance. Mahle is the one with the highest ceiling but with Paddack already at a innings limit likely, its probably not in the Twins interest to get another pitcher that will be unable to perform for a couple months.

Sonny gray is the 1 and only answer to this article.

LOL I would assume we are keeping Rocco and most likely hitting coach. However what they are coaching them on may change. So what are we looking at for next year SP #1 Lopez #2 FA/Paddack/Trade #3 Ryan #4 Ober #5 Varland/Paddack RP - Duran, Jax, Stewart, Funderburk, Varland?, and rest open Infield - 3rd Lee, SS Correa, 2nd Julien/Lewis 1st Kiriloff/FA OF Lewis? Buxton? Wallner, Castro and lots of ???????? I think Keplers option is picked up. I would be fine with trading him, but are you going to find anyone better or as healthy as him. Polanco on the other hand I think is allowed to walk unless the Twins have a trade set up, we just don't have the spots available in the IF and his defense relegates him to 2nd. Gray will be given the qualifying offer and it will be interesting if the Twins try to resign. Honestly for value his contract would be reasonable for the type of pitcher he is, but I think the potential extra draft pick is too much to pass up. My ideal scenario would be to sign Bellinger OF/1st (22 million ave) , re-sign Taylor (4 mil ave) , Pick up the Keplers Option. (10 mil). That allows Buxton to remain as a DH/OF back up if knees are feeling batter. the Outfield becomes much more solidified and you add another elite bat to the line up. Julien, Correa, Bellinger is a very good core. Lee should bring good plate discipline and professional hitting approach even at the MLB level. That would leave us 20-30 million more in salary. Although a lot of that gets ate up in smaller signings. If you want to go with elite pitching you could go with 1 of Rodriguez, Nola or Snell. In general though the Twins have been opposed to spending money on the pitching side. it will be interesting.

If a pitcher comes up that you think you can turn into an elite pitcher yes I would consider it but the staff is looking very strong. You have your #1 in Lopez locked up for 4 years. The Twins have a decision to make as to who the #2 is. Paddack looked very good at the end of the season. I have a feeling he will step into the #2 spot. Then with Ryan, Ober, Varland you have a top 5. Now I do think they need to get another pitcher. Whether that is resigning Gray who could step in as your #2 or #3 or going for a pitcher they think they can fix. Personally I think they let Gray go. If you could get Eduardo Rodriguez as a decent contract I would consider it, but in general they look for value contracts on trades, which brings us back to a possibly trade option. Right now OF and 1st base and RP are primary areas I would be looking at upgrading and then retooling the depth players. I think this offseason will be wide open for the front office.

You may see some go longer than 1. You would also have effectively all pitchers on deck other than Gray and Lopez.

Do you take pictures standing on your head regularly 😄

I wasn't able to read the full analytics of it. If Gray continues to perform it is going to put pressure on the Twins. It would make you want to try to run it out again, while at the same time increasing the contract Gray gets with every successful playoff start. The extension for Pablo looks like pure gold right now. I think you are easily looking at 70 to 80 million on a 3-4 year contract for Gray that could get as high as 90 million. If he walks the Twins will get a comp pick at the end of the first round. 2 years of Gray, a good run in the playoffs possibly even more and another late 1st round draft pick for Petty seems like a dream scenario. You know the Twins are comfortable with what Gray is and are comfortable with his performance and know he can be an extremely strong 1B pitcher to Lopez 1A. I fear his velocity is right on the precipice of greatly hindering his performance. In 2016 he was average 94-95 MPH. It is now down to 92.9. I think as it continues to decline to lower 92 to 91, even with more horizontal and vertical manipulation, that the hard hit rates are going to start popping back up. With as many runners that Sonny has been stranding on the base paths, if that occurs at inopportune times his ERA could be significantly higher. As much as I love Sonny for this year and what he is doing and want it to continue this playoff run, the best thing for the Twins would be to let him walk, and find another undervalued pitcher that is considered very good that they think they can make into great.

You would be placing Taylor above Paddack and Pagan. I love Taylor, but I have effectively prioritized elite players. That is not to say Taylor hasn't been elite as a defensive player and even done fairly well with the bat, However I see Paddack performing as our #2 pitcher next year. The question is will he be on an innings limit.

"Having them be able to watch me play, play with them, them being able to come into the clubhouse, to just be a part of it, that and then winning a World Series, going on a playoff, going on a postseason run, that’s the things that still drive me in this game,” Gray told reporters. “That’s the reason that I still show up and put in the work that I put in.” I always thought we would not have a chance at resigning Gray. Because we wouldn't give him the best shot at winning in his eyes. With Pablo and Correa, that changes the dynamics. Will be curious to see how his free agency plays out. I still think the Twins are ok allowing him to walk, but I would be fine if they resigned him.

Protecting Correa will be interesting, other than Lewis no one else scares any other team.