Hawkeye Bean Counter

Cardinals will likely be shipping off 1 to 2 outfielders if that is what you want to go after. Nothing exciting but its something that has been mentioned a bit.

More than $50 million so should be between the first and second round. Before competitive balance but not sure on the prospect promotion for Arizona and Baltimore getting the rookie of the years.

if he would have waited I think 4 and $100 would have been a possibility. The issue is I don't think he wants to pitch in the big markets after his New York experience.

I think the strategy is actual pretty decent. Will be a bit of a stop gap but still what they want to achieve. Gibson and Lynn are both pitchers that you can slot into your 4 and 5 spots. I think both Lynn and Gibson will perform slightly better than last year. Gibson getting out of the AL east and Lynn just had a rough year last year. Both are work horses and tend to avoid the IL. They are boring but excellent 4-5 options. They still need a #1 or #2 to pair with Gray but will likely go the trade market for that. They locked pitchers up before a frenzy as teams that lost out try to go to the 2nd and 3rd tier. The will have revamped their SP line up for not exorbitant dollars but reasonable. The issue is Lynn and Gibson are both 1 year stop gaps so will either give time for prospects to develop or be back in the FA market next year.

The expectations were for anywhere between 3 years 60 million and 3 years $72 million. To sign this early I would guess closer to that higher number. Cardinals were desperate for quality starting pitching.

The issue for an ace or a #2 for 1 year is the compensation. Most likely younger pitchers can be offered the QO and get draft compensation. In the Sonny Gray situation it worked out well because not only did you get great performance, but you can parlay that into another lottery ticket high school pitcher most likely similar to Petty. Then it is does Petty make it or the pick. However we have already accumulated nearly a 10 WAR from 2 years of Sonny. That is a huge amount to catch up on. Joe Ryan has given us 3.8 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons.

Or do the unthinkable and trade Correa. However I don't think thats likely especially with the no trade clause, just saying. I think his postseason did answer a lot of questions though and he had a healthy season which makes his contract seem pretty reasonable now.

If you want to look purely at age due to him losing his 2020 season to Covid, fine that is your prerogative. Juliens second year of playing he played primarily in AA no different than Lee. If you want to look at small sample size though Julien did much better than Lee's in AAA in a similar amount of at bats. All I am saying is Julien was very much underrated coming up through the system and I think Lee is slightly overrated, but that he is a very good looking prospect and has a very very high floor. Lee has performed well at every level and I expect him to do very well in AAA this year. He will be a very solid major leaguer. There is nothing wrong with that. Julien has had a higher OPS and OBP at every level, whether you want to scoff at it or qualify it that is fine. The only major differentiator is Lee plays a premium position at SS and will likely be a 3rd baseman. The issue is we have Lewis there right now.

Mike, Lee is a great prospect and we were lucky to get him. However I would say the exact same thing about Julien. Both have a high trade value in the calculator, but I think Juliens bat will be better than Lee. That isn't anything to sneeze at, and maybe Lee will be better. When you look at their stats though they have followed the exact same trajectory and at similar levels at a similar age and Julien did better at each level. What does that say, its that there is bias in the rankings. What I am looking at is we don't have enough positions for all our infielders unless 1 moves to 1st or DH. I would be fine with having another great contact hitter on the team. I also recognize that one of the 2 is a likely trade candidate.

Julien has outperformed Lee at every level. I think he is pretty locked in. Add in his improvement on defense, unless the Twins are blown away with a deal, you don't trade away a top 10-11 obp and top 25 OPS player unless getting ample return back. Unless you think he will regress but he has been incredibly consistent moving up the levels. As he gains more name recognition he may start getting a few more of those close calls as well.

This has been a potential ideal partner. I like Brooks Lee, and think he can be a good player and possibly a 1 to 2 time all star. However the likelihood of him being more than that are slim. If you can get a very strong pitcher while we still have immense depth in the infield you do it. You may need to send a little more with him. The question is, is that the player the Mariners want. I can't judge that. However the pool of teams willing to give up elite hitting prospects for pitching is likely pretty slim as well.

It doesn't even fit with the Twins MO. They are not looking for 1 year stop gaps, and trading away a very good prospect to get that stopgap. Alonso is a good power hitter, but not perfect, he is the type of player the Twins like, and maybe the Twins would do it to get a draft pick after a qualifying offer. In the grand scheme of things its just not likely. The Twins don't have a ton of cash to throw around and they still need at least 1 more starting pitcher. We have likely enough hitters in house, its still moving them around, and possibly finding 1 to 2 hitters that can fit in well. The primary focus this offseason should be on finding a #2 to pair with Pablo.

DJL, I agree. Someone is going to have to play a different position, whether 1st base or outfield, if you keep them all. Or you will have to trade 1 or keep Lee in the minors unless there is an injury. The only other options are to move Julien to DH or 1st even though he seems to be settling in quite nicely into second base.

This is where the rubber meets the road, for a Julien or a Lee they are going to have to give a better pitcher than Woo, Miller, or Hancock. Miller and Woo have similar comps to Julien or Lee but personally I think they will want a better pitcher than that level. My guess is they ultimately look for more of a reclamation project.

I fully agree with you. I think Lee is at peak value and is a viable trade chip. Unless the power ticks up significantly which it could he is a .360 OBP .830 ish OPS type player. That is an above average MLB player at a premium position as a SS or 3rd baseman. Jenkins has the potential to be elite. The ceiling is much much higher. The thing is, Winokur showed he may have a similar high ceiling. I am very curious to watch how Jenkins and Winokur perform this year and also watch the A and high A coaches have fun with their new pitchers from last years draft. Beyond that, Lee is a very high floor, with a lower ceiling which makes him a rather safe pick if another team has holes to fill. Will have to wait and see.

They don't have the bats to compete as constructed. They are the Miami Marlins of last year. They need playable bats now. https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/1/21/23565105/marlins-luis-arraez-baseball-trade-values The calculator isn't always right. That articles states the Marlins significantly overpaid for Arraez. However that was giving Salas 20 million worth of value. Salas has a 5.1 million value today after having 20 million last year for the simulator. Even still in the trade scenario it was 58 million vs 27. I think you have to assume once you get in the 25 to 30 million range or higher there may be a 15 to 20 million difference in calculation and some variations. Just like in the Arraez situation the Marlins really liked him. It would have to be a similar situation for something like this to occur as well. Yes you never know whether they would value someone like a Julien better or a Brooks Lee. In either case I believe there is 1 spot in the future and the other is a trade candidate unless you can move Julien to a different position or Lee or Lewis to the outfield.

Currently here is my gut feel on how things play out. I think salaries will end up in the 130 to 135 range. 1. There is already smoke on Kiermaier. I do think the Twins will take the chance on him. A 2 year 13-14 million contract seems reasonable. This will likely be our headline deal of the year and will fill in with couple other smaller contracts. 2. One of Polanco and/or Kepler will be traded in the offseason. Either to facility a another trade or give us a prospect or player in a position of need. Kepler has had interest from the Yankees and I could see that interest ramping up or other teams. Red Sox would be an option for Polanco. They could also be use in a trade for a starter which I discuss below. 3. We will trade for a starter. The question is how good of a starter. Will it be a #2 starter and cost significant prospects, which the Twins will have well replenished their prospects with the 2023 draft and draft capital in the 2024 draft - or will they go for a cheaper reclamation project. Personally I think they wade into the #2 #3 type of pitcher market. Milwaukee has already stated they are open for business as well as it appears Seattle is as well. Seattle has excess pitching and Seattle has lots of holes for hitting. Here is my trade proposal Logan Gilbert for Kepler and Lee Trade simulator Twins 73.9 Mariners 57 The trade seems slightly lopsided but honestly I think Gilberts value in the simulator is a tad high. I also think Rookies that are eligible for draft compensation if they are rookie of the year have increased value. The outfield then consists of Wallner, Kiermaier, (Buxton, Larnach, Martin) pick up bargain level fielder for additional depth.

Not a major surprise but he did turn down the offer. Most likely looking like the Twins will get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

This may sound odd, but of the players Brooks Lee may offer you the best return. He is rated highly. Now he does offer better defense than Julien, however Julien has outperformed him at every level on an OBP and OPS standard and they have been on very similar tracks. Unless someone were to want to way overpay for Julien, those 2 likely offer your best trade value. I see Lee as a good player in MLB but never elite, above average defense good contact hitter. Lee, Julien and Jenkins are the organizations most valuable assets, along with Pablo Lopez (but you wouldn't want to trade him). You have several other depth pieces for infield, Polanco, Severino, Keaschall, Schobel. You have to assume we will be trade a couple of our prospects. The other player who likely offers a very good return is Soto and likely even higher than Raya. Similar to a situation like the Reds, if you have a team that was very high on him, they would be willing to give a cost controlled #2 pitcher for a couple years in exchange for the possibility at a high end starter.

I understand the idea. However, I am part of other sports forums. Most have a set up where there is a premium board and premium articles. You can't read any of the premium articles unless a member and the discussion occurs in the premium forum. This set up is just weird, I begin reading an article, realize I have wasted my time, and then I can try to have a discussion with a 1/3 of the information available or move on.

I hate the caretaker stuff. Whats the point, don't put it as a main article if everyone cannot read what the point of the article is. Have a caretake section and move on.

Ok so you have the following Lopez, Traded pitcher, Ryan, Paddack, Ober backups, Winder, a likely AAA signee with a little more oomph than a Keuchel or Aaron Sanchez. Someone who can pitch some innings early on if needed. (Twins gain some respect with the Keuchel more in MLB is my guess). Festa, Dobnak. Maybe SWR surprises. I guess I feel like there are enough options. Not the level of Varland but close. Honestly if we came to a break glass situation, you could just begin to lengthen Varland back out.

Mike I am not so sure. It really comes down to their opinion of him as a starter vs a reliever. Honestly I think plays much better as a reliever than starter like many here. If that is the case, they may think some of the other pitchers in the minors are similar (so redundant) and or they may be planning to trade for a #2. I think this really comes down to their strategy and do they want a top heavy starting pitching staff again, at the expense of some prospects or young players. I think we will really be increasing the minors depth significantly with last years draft class, add in this upcoming draft which should have 4 picks in the top 80 picks and it again should be a deep draft, without the elite ceiling of Jenkins. I think they trade for a #2 personally and possibly with some ammo from a Polanco or Kepler trade or just purely from prospects. Someone who is likely viewed as a low #2 or #3 that they think they can improve with some tweaking or an added pitch. Or they go heavy and go for a low #1, #2 pitcher in Logan Gilbert from Seattle who has been dangled for a while.

My guess is we end in the $135 to $140 range. Ownership and Management get more visibility on the television and streaming income. I actually could see in a year or two the combined amount is more than the recent television rights. It is why Bally's wanted the streaming rights so badly. I am curious how many people would purchase to stream. I think in my family alone you would 3-4 if it was a reasonable price. You will no longer get the fee from all cable subscribers but those that are interested will be willing to pay up. You will still then have the Television contract still available. I think even with ownership and management a 20% cut is too large. So what is the most likely outcome, we will be trading some good players and/or prospects. I could easily see the Yankees being interested in Kepler. Polanco would entice many teams. Farmer will get sent out for a prospect slightly better than the one we sent out. Of the prospects and young players, that means 1 or more of Julien, Brooks, Soto, Raya, Rodriguez and either young players and prospects are likely to get traded. Julien Brooks and Soto will likely have the highest value, so if we are going after a good player with control those are the likely candidates. I think Jenkins and Lewis will be off limits. Will have to wait and see.

November 14th.