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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Damn I thought he was done after last year. 5 million guaranteed up to 6 million . . . bizarre. Good for him.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I don't think you guys get it, there aren't enough bodies for all the chairs open on other teams unless going to go with absolute scrubs, 1 and possibly both of Farmer and Polanco will get traded. Don't worry about spots. We will need someone to back up Buxton and possibly a decent chunk of the load. Hicks is as good of an option for that roll as anyone. I think would rather have him than chance it on Austin Martin who is still a work in progress in the outfield. Of the remaining outfielders you have Taylor, Duvall, Hicks, Hamilton, Engel and Bradley. Or you are looking at trading from someone else's roster.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If it averages to .260 to .270 that is a very very good player. I am not expecting a .300 hitter this year, I do think something has substantially changed and am expecting a .270+ hitter batting average, with everything else remaining the same.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    His first half was atrocious lets just look at the second half. 235 AB 72 H 17 doubles, 2 triples, 12 HR 36 RBI 27 BB 54 SO .306/.377/.549 slash line. He struck out 22% of the time. Homerun rate is 5% of at bats. Which was actually down from the first half. For his career he strikes out 20% of the time, and his HR rate for his career is 4% of at bats , lastly he walked 11% of the time which is right in line with his career rates of a little better than 10%. So other than a couple more homers what changed. His batting average jumped to .300 with a bunch more singles and more doubles. Not only was he make better contact but a few more hits that were eliminated in the shift started to drop and he had several other hits find holes. You would have thought with a lot better contact the homer rate would have increase substantially but ultimately thats not what occurred, It was a drast jump in singles, a good jump in doubles and adding 2 triples to the mix. When the BA jumps from .220 to .300 there is obviously something going on, and more than just luck.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    To begin the season I like the idea of signing Hoskins, thinking he would be our best option. Now, personally I don't think the Twins are interested in any of the big free agents. Maybe a lower lever reliever, a #4 pitcher they think they can fix or centerfielder if they are questioning how healthy Buxton will be. Leave the money for next year when we have a better idea of what our needs will be.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What is funny is what this article is based off of they make it very clear currently they don't plan to trade Kepler. They more feel they have a glut of infielders and Polanco and Farmer are the primary trade pieces. Neither one of those will get a ton unless paired with a prospect from our end. Lewis and Lee are by far our biggest trade chips. I would rather not trade them but if someone wants to massively overpay I am willing to listen.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    To me there were about 3 tweaks that occurred and 1 other point that made his season better. 1. Started swinging at balls earlier in counts, Often found better pitches and was able to make better contact. 2. He is letting the ball get a little further in the zone, which is spraying the ball a lot more. (also with good contact) 3. As stated above in your post, Kepler seems more willing to just hit the ball hard every swing now rather than take defensive swings that often produce week contact and are easy outs. 4. He was fighting through injuries early in the season. I hope something similar happens for Correa and Buxton this year :). The only caveat is he faced much weaker pitching in the 2nd half. I still expect a very strong season and something more similar to the 2nd half of the season than the 1st half. Even still an OPS+ of 149 in the second half leaves credence that Kepler may have figured something out.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Bally's really can't force the hand of the Twins for more than 1 year as worst case they go with MLB. They also don't have the other teams past 2024. So the real question, does Amazon and Bally's together have more cache and earnings potential, than what MLB can do on its own and with local media rights? Its a fair question and ultimately I think better than what we had before. Any new deal will have no blackouts - that is non negotiable, so right there is a major improvement. For a bunch of mediocre teams Amazon was willing to pay 20 mil per a year for the streaming rights. That means the Twins are worth at least that much in a new negotiation. So then what are the Television rights, 20 Mil, 30 mil, 35 mil? Ultimately the issue has always come down to money. Once the dust settles, it doesn't appear to be a major monetary change. so we have a potential new option with Amazon for a year. The question is, is Bally's who has said they are done after 2023 now the viable solution moving forward. If not them, then who? We still have some moving parts, but I feel a lot better about 2024, and think 2025 and moving forward will turn out pretty good as well.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Even still, this shows you the streaming rights are worth at least $20 million for the Twins, and then you have the broadcast fees on top. I think you get awfully close to that $50 million area. I don't think the reduction is going to be as much as people feared.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Is this article extremely lazy or am I missing something. It says Amazon with Bally's would have the right to stream the Twins broadcast for this year, and would be part of the $100 million. The Twins deal expired. Did something else occur that I am not aware of? Looking further think it should be Brewers not the Twins. Not sure how you could mess up an article that bad.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The other thing is go look at Mauers stats. They are similar OPS+ and both play defensive positions. Correa is just a tad behind Mauer. Correa was well on track for the hall of fame and still is. He is 29. 29-34 should be the prime of a players career. Hopefully we get an elite year from him and people can calm down LOL. The counting stats should still come especially if he is in the middle of the order for the next 6-7 years.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Sorry after reading a few of these, I think I should post something like. . . Are Twins fans underrating Tony O's Cubanos. It seems we are undervaluing everything LOL. Although you know me, lets throw Kepler in the mix LOL.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Seems a tad silly. The average HOF WAR is between 50 and 70, Correa is sitting at 40. If you expect him to put up 1 WAR or less in the next few years then yes. However, his steamer is a 3.4 WAR for 2024. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at a 4-5 WAR. Any down year he has immediately bounce back. I think the plantar fasciitis, and a bit of free swinging hurt him last year. I think the bats will be much better this year. The one concern I do have is that I don't think Correa does well in the cold weather, so is prone to slow starts. So wait and see, but Buxton is more of a ? to me than the performance of Correa. All he needs is 2 really good years, 4-5 War, 2 good years, 2-3 War, and 4 years of 1 WAR. That is 19 more WAR and puts him firmly in the HOF discussion. Now if he can lead the Twins deep into the playoffs and a possibly WS like Puckett, with his other WS in Houston I think he would be a lock. Yes those are lofty goals, but I think that is what the Twins envisioned when they signed him. The pitching is really starting to round into shape and I think the hitters will do very well this year, with more quality players on the farm. I think in a year or Two we will see 2023 was just a blip for Correa.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What I was suggesting is before we got the number for De Los Santos, it seemed they had put in a lot of their budge on top two players. Beltre signed for $1.5. However De Los Santos signed for $1.9 quite a bit less than I expected. Even still, you have 50% of your budget in 2 players. What is curious is whether a team is trying to get the elite players in the top 10, or going for several in the 50-100 range. I was expecting something similar to last year where they had 88% in 3 players. I still think its top heavy with 2 high level signings, but a bit more spread out than last year.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If we spent 1.5 million on Beltre how much did we spend on De Los Santos of $6.52 million budget?
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So we went for quality over quantity this time. These kids are the essence of lottery picks. You hit on them though and doing very well. Braves have effectively built their team from the international side of things.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I do want to mention, just because a team is willing to trade a player doesn't necessarily mean they don't value the player like Arraez from last year. It means they think they can more easily replicate their value through another player.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Marlins already willing to move on from Arraez. 1 they think they can get something for him, 2) they gave up a lot to get him, for him to have a career year and then just willing to trade him back out. I know the regimes changed and he is effectively one of their best trade chips, but I have said before and will continue to say we really got the better end of the deal on that one. I would take Arraez back for 2 years though 馃榿. Curious what the cost would be. I would do a Polanco and ERod (26.5) for Arraez (30.2) straight up. Arraez can play 2nd, 1st and DH. Same with Julien.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The thing is I expect Kepler to have a good season not a magical season. As I stated to start this thread, I think people greatly underestimate how much teams value a player like Kepler. Teoscar, even though has more offensive output is similar to Kepler maybe a step below on a WAR basis. Look, it all comes down to how he performs, I just was responding to your statement that Teoscar was an overpay (when the market paid him that) or that Kepler has to have a magical season to consider a QO. Kepler just needs to continue to play defensively well and perform closer to his 2nd half numbers than his first and I think he is a virtual lock. That isn't pie in the sky, even though you and Mike may think that. When you have a pretty good equivalency in Teoscar, I think its fallacy to say it doesn't compare. If not if we think he will sign for 4 for $60 million and he will be closer to a 3 to 4 WAR player every year you do that in a heartbeat.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    MAT performed ok with the bat last year, and with his defense, was a positive player for the Twins. MAT is worth around $8-10 million especially if he can perform the same way next year. Taylor has been a very productive outfielder for the last 3 years. He got a raw deal by becoming a free agent in 2021 with the depressed rates from Covid when he signed his 2 year 9 million contract after a 1 year 1.7 million contract in 2020.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is no overpay, there is only the market rate, and that was $23.5 million that is worth around $20 million on a 1 year deal. For a player that was supposed to get a 4 year 60-70 million deal it is fair to both sides. Higher for a 1 year deal, but no risk on the downside for future years. It shows a solid player that produces around a 2 WAR per a year is worth around $20 million on a 1 year deal 馃榿.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We also have Winder who i haven't given up on quite yet.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    LOL there is a comma there. I am talking about a Dallas Keuchel in 2023 or an Aaron Sanchez in 2022 or a AAAA pitcher that signs with us in AAA that we are going to try to tweak and give them a chance. Dallas Keuchel I think will really help us in this department. I think that went really well last year. He held his end of the bargain and our team gave him the opportunity at the big league level he wanted and he gave us some good starts early. He gave us 37 innings and helped get us 2 wins. If we end up with 40 innings from this type of player it gives 100 for prospects who definitely are not journeyman starters LOL.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lopez - 160+ Ryan 160 Varland if a starter- 140 Ober- 130 Paddack- 130 Assuming we don't trade for another starter. That leaves around 140 other innings, for journeyman starters in AAA, Festa, Canterino, SWR ect. With all the Relievers I am beginning to believe we will go with Varland as a starter and a big trade may not be on the horizon as I expected earlier in the offseason. Could still see something happen in the next month.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Correct on all fronts. We either need very good trade compensation for Kepler, or hope he has a good season that allows us to use a QO, he rejects and signs for north of $50 million. As this thread shows though, Kepler is a complicated player that has very different views on his value to a team. You have myself who thinks he has immense value while others think he is significantly less. A lot will come down to his offensive performance and whether he can duplicate his 2nd half.
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