Hawkeye Bean Counter

He has been pushing 95 mph in his relieve outings. 2 mph higher than this spring. I am still not quite sure what the issue was.

Right now Tom is heading this team giving it direction for the financial resources and whether to buy and sell players. Zoll is merely processing the transactions. He will likely get some Kudos for identifying some reliever talent - but the biggest thing is it doesn't appear he is getting taken advantage of on trades.

JD - you have done excellent draft coverage from the podcasts to articles here. Thank you very much. 1. I have high hopes for Lackey - I think he will be the best catcher in the league for a significant time frame. I think he will be the perfect person to take the mantle after a gap year from Jeffers. I think the Twins will be able to keep him fresh and let his bat rake. (Confidence factor 90%) 2. Tinney - I have a man crush right now. Lackey was easy this guy is a swing for the fence pick literally and figuratively. The exit velocities are crazy. I put him in the category of a Winokur and Young pick with a drastically higher floor and the most demanding defensive position. No you are not getting the athleticism unicorns that are Winokur and Young - but you are getting a Catcher prospect with better defense that he is given credit for, a bat tool that is better than he is given credit for, power that will do serious damage to the stats and outfield seats. And the kicker he has the drive to get better and wants to remain a catcher. IF he pans out and a similar time frame as Lackey - they would be the perfect battering mates to pair together, can keep each other fresh and the Twins could have the most significant offensive advantage at the catcher position for a significant window. Otherwise he moves to 1st, trade ect. (Confidence factor 70%). I like Renfrow, Wachsmann, Lapour, Murdock, Bayles, Burns and Brouchard. The Twins drastically need some of these guys to pan out to help the lower minors. The 2023 and 2024 drafts have left a massive gap at AA for quality pitching prospects or pitching in general. The system is being carried by the 2022 draft and most of those have been called up already to help at the MLB level (Lee, Priellip, Morris, Matthews). Between the picks, Soto, Dasan Hill, Quick, Ellwanger, Reitz, Barr, Mitrovich, Moring, Smith. We really need these young pitchers to start figuring it out. This is the first time I have been a bit concerned about the pitching coming up through the minors. Alas its all a wait and see. Thanks again.

This is the investment in the bullpen so far - Gomez (closer) - traded cash max outlay of 250k Morris (fireman) - prospect for 4th round pick Nance (middle innings 7th) - traded Sprock and received 250k international money back Rogers - $2 million signing Banda - traded 500k international money Sands - already rostered Orze - traded Kisting Go - Cash considerations Acton - traded Whitaker So for the current bullpen we have invested $2 million, traded max of 500k cash, we are net 250k down in international money and we have traded away Sprock, Kisting and Whitaker. The Twins have found 2 high leverage relievers, they will see if Sands can become a high leverage reliever with his increased velocity and I am cautiously optimistic on Nance. I would have zero concerns on trading Tait, Gonzalez, Mendez, Rojas, Debarge Winokur or Young. Rojas is the only pitching prospect I would consider and that would have to be for a great return. If the Twins can play good baseball and bring fans to the stands down the stretch that should pay for any players coming to the Twins. This was the year where they could have thrown money at reliever free agents and they have shown yet again relief pitching can be found and developed through relatively cheap methods. I am fine if a reliever comes with a contract, but I just don't see them spending money on a reliever. The Twins current method of constructing a team is draft your hitters, trade for your starting pitchers, and develop the bullpen. Its been working. 4 of the top 5 pitchers have been traded for since 2020 (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and Bradley). Right now I am 90% confident that Jeffers is not traded, nor any other significant piece of the team.

1. The offense might slow down a bit, but will remain one of the top offenses in MLB. 1 of the biggest outperformers with RISP has been Bell. He is slashing .343/.391/.636. He has hunted those RBI - The biggest thing he hasn't tried to do to much. He just tries to put the ball in play when runners are on. What Bell is doing like last year is he is really beginning to heat up. So there may be a regression to the mean, or Bell warming up and getting into groove will allow the stats to remain high. You have multiple other hitters really hitting their stride hitting. Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Larnach in the mid tier. Guys who have always had talent. The Twins stopped coddling Lewis and allowing Lewis to just do things his way. He has started to get confident again and he is ripping the ball. Clemens since May has been extremely consistent. Larnach has been solid all year and really finding his home as the #1 hitter. Jeffers is back and Buxton had some time to get healthy. 2. Tigers may make a push but will still be sellers. They face Angels (weak), Cubs (good), KC (weak), Orioles (average). Before the deadline. That is a schedule they could make a run with but ultimately they have never been a cohesive team this year. They are the 2025 Twins. They will then trade Skubal ending any possibility of them making a push. 3. Twins will be buyers at the deadline (*). Unless they go 3 games under 500 in the next 12 games, Tom wants this team to win so badly to keep his word to players and fans (even though the fans I wouldn't worry about- they are fickle). I see them buying throughout the next 2 weeks just like they did with Nance. I expect 2 more relievers - 1 average and 1 high leverage. The question is will they get another starter. Personally I say yes but I will discuss next point. 4. Pitching staff with reinforcements will continue to produce Viable results. Pitching is as reliant on defense as it is pitching. Kreidler manning the SS position and providing excellent defense with Lee at 3rd, Clemens at 2nd and Lewis at 1st is providing average to above average defense in the infield which is something the Twins haven't done in while. This is taking some stress off. The bullpen has been headed by Gomez and Morris the last month or two. Relievers can fall off but what these 2 are doing is not smoke and mirrors. Gomez has effectively gone to 3 pitches that tunnel well together - the fastball, slider that tails away from the right hander and the cutter that cuts in. Just like Ryan and Bradley, the Twins have elevated Gomez fastball effectiveness after coming over from the Rays. Morris is just finding himself. As much as we miss Varland, in 17 innings since June 3rd Morris has effectively been unhittable with a .53 whip. He seems to be getting stronger and not tailing off. Reinforcements are coming. Nance will be with the team after the break and it appears Sands with improved velocity (back to 2025 levels) will be joining the team as well. The bullpen will appear to have 4 solid arms as of now - and then supplement with Go, Funderburk, Rogers and pick who else. I think Coulombe will be added in the next 48 hours adding another arm. Assuming buyers as stated above - They add another high leverage arm at minimum. You never know how they will work together but that looks like a solid bullpen. SP - This is being led by Ryan and Bradley. Another additional #3 pitcher would really help but we currently have 4 arms filling the 3 starter position. Ober, Priellip, Matthews and Paredes. Using the schedule and skipping starts I think they can keep those 4 performing well down the stretch. The only concern I would have is injury. As long as that doesn't occur I think they are fine. Ryan in past seasons has begun losing a bit in later July. His current July stats are looking really good. He had a couple rough starts to end June but he has added some additional tweaks that should allow him to continue to deceive and be a #1 pitcher through the remaining dog days of summer. A #3 pitcher would drastically help morale - give them reinforcement and could possibly give you a 3 headed monster to head into the postseason with. 5. They will play meaningful baseball in Sept. My biggest concern about the sell off last year was that it could create a losing culture in the clubhouse. We are seeing zero of that. What we are seeing is a team that is beginning to get confident. Many of the highly drafted players are beginning to fulfill their potential and we have coach that seems to be pushing the right buttons. Maybe they come up short, but this team will have played entertaining baseball which is what I said they needed to do.

He was a solid player for the twins in 2023. He made nearly $17 million during his career. Not bad at all.

That was before the expansion of teams in the playoffs. Supply vs demand is a little different now but your point remains the same with just a little more compensation needed. If we get Coulombe my guess is 1 more 7th to 8th inning arm. Something cheaper than a closer. If you can get an additional arm cheap so be it. I will say this game of paying cash or a small prospect for a solid reliever from a good team with a roster crunch seems to be more available than I expected. I can see a scenario where the Bullpen has essentially been rebuilt. Yes the team will continue to tweak, but this is much further along than I expected. Injuries and underperformance in the bullpen was expected. Especially when working with arms initially with minimal velocity. The quality of of arms is definitely moving in the right direction. No one will mistake it for last years bullpen to start the year but it could be one of the biggest transformations from beginning to end of the year on record in the MLB.

I will one up you. I didn’t mention Tinney because of being a second round pick. However even with minimal information this is effectively my take on him and likely the Twins thoughts and I do agree they likely had a player or two taken before. Johnson said 3 interesting thins on drafting catchers and Tinney in particular. He was the best position player on the board 2. In most years the catching prospects they had targeted were sniped early 3. They view Tinney defense and hit tool better than most saying he improved his defensive metrics during the season and his in zone swing and miss improved in season as well. He started off the season pressing and still ended with elite numbers. So what do we know, he is a big guy, he is actual pretty agile there is one block where he jumped behind the hitter to block and he has a cannon of an arm. Pitch framing and better blocking appear to be the focuses. Defense will keep him at catcher but his bat is what will get him to the MLB level. Once he hit the ball it flies. Only 1 other player hit it harder. If the hit tool is good enough - you have Cal Raleigh. I think the Twins really like him. He has an excellent drive to get better and the was the stated reason they decided to believe in him and draft him. Yes the stats were really good with hit tool concerns, yes there are some defensive concerns (he won the gold glove award this year). When catchers with any upside are taken early for the draft to effectively fall into place for the Twins even if it was a focus for them as well we take it. Ultimately I see him as a better Jeffers. Worst case defensively it doesn’t work out and he becomes a first base man. I just think baseline he is able to be a catcher, this even if the hit tool is still a little light, he still likely provides good to elite production from the catcher position.

The next 7-10 days are big, which is why Tom was unwilling to wait til the deadline to get help. Competent arms are needed now. So far it’s a start and nothing game changing but instead of just trying to get the game to Gomez you have a couple competent arms to use now.

We have 4 relievers who could be on most bullpens right now. Morris, Gomez, Nance and Sands. There is reliever that’s been dfa’d and has to be traded in the next couple of days. Coulombe is a nice depth piece. There may be another team such as Washington who may have more bullpen issues than us, but say what you will I think Tom is willing to put some investment into fixing the bullpen. I think he is the next shoe to drop, After that we will see which teams are willing to shop their relievers and what the prices are. I still think we need a #3 starter as well. How much are they willing to invest. So far they have gotten by pretty cheaply.

Diaz - $23 mil AAV Williams - $17 million AAV Suarez - $15 million AAV Weaver - $11 million AAV Pagan - $10 million AAV I get what you are saying. I really wanted Dominguez and he has a 4.41 ERA. So is Chapman going into his 39 year - yes. Relievers seem to be able to keep performing at an older age but I think he could still do solid. In either case going after a reliever and a starter pitcher is still what I see they will do. The punting on relievers experiment actually appears to be working out ok for this year all things considered. Yes they have the worst ERA, but they aren't the worst at blowing leads and they seem to be strengthening the bullpen with more reinforcements coming into play. Morris and Gomez seem like really good finds.

Excellent podcast. Great info JD.

I think at that point you keep him Mike. We have a cheap team already. However it sounds like Jeffers is pretty intent on getting a long term contract.

Lapour I completely agree with. He is an intense bulldog. Sean Johnson said if he had been healthy this year he is most likely a #1 draft pick. I agree. He seemed to do everything right. Fastball 60 Slider 55 Changeup 50 Control 50 but he is only a 45 prospect LOL. Maybe some injury risk. His 2025 stats were better than a Volchko 2026. It was mentioned on one of the podcasts ive listened to - that the Twins are slightly leaning into propects that have been wrestlers - super competitive. Keaschall, Lapour and I believe 1 more middle infielder. They view him as a starter along with Murdock. Burns - I completely agree. JD Cameron says he could be in the bullpen by 2027 and honestly if he can figure out a little more control and 1 secondary pitch. Game on. JT Raab is the big lanky pitcher that could fill out and really develop in the next year. Colby Turner is an excellent bat infielder that performed really well in a power 4 conference. Isaiah Lane - good frame good defense, decent bat. I think they see upside here. The rest are lottery tickets in my mind. Not to say things can't click or ect. I mean I can like Prather and some of the pitchers. Teel is solid but is getting drafted as much to the family name.

I think you take Chapman at $13 million for next year and smile all the Way. As to Gray, I didn't know that and that is extremely interesting. I thought the contract was done. $30 million mutual option - or $10 million buyout. The buyout is occuring unless Tom feels he has the money and they do a 2 year extension at $40-$50 million. I would rather the money goes to Joe Ryan as an extension, or Pablo Lopez with injury concerns.

The ideal scenario is signing him to an extension. He seems like the type of player that just continues to get better each year. He takes good care of his body and he had an inner drive. He needs to maintain performance throughout the year. He will not be traded at this years deadline unless things tragically fall apart. I think teams are nervous for next year so won't give full value and Tom really wants to win to keep his word. So you wait til 2027, you see if can sign to an extension. The Twins will have money available, and there is a possibility the big market teams won't have the resources to splurge. Could be a nice coming together of the market. There will likely be no comp pick options. Worst case trade him at the deadline in 2027.

Who will the Twins have as a Catcher in 2028? We have no one signed and no real options in the upper minors. Maybe resign Jackson and Caratini?

I had guess we would be a tad below .500 so we are right on Track. I think the Twins do not sell at all and are active buyers. The question is how much. I've stated before but it does appear with Nance replacing Banda, Sands projected to come back after the Break and Coloumbe being available it could help solidfy the bullpen. The lineup/hitters have been solid accross the board. Buxton has been battling the hip all year and I think this break will hopefully allow a strong push for the deadline. Can the hitters remain on a hot streak. This is my biggest question - and I am cautiously optimistic. Lee has consistently gotten better, Bell heats up as the season goes on, Jeffers is back and Caratini can fill in if undeperformance, Buxton is Buxton if healthy, Keashall made the adjustments and Larnach looks like for the 1st time in his career is really getting comforatable. Roden is nice depth. Culpepper and Jenkins can provide a boost from the minors although I do see some risk on this as if added to the 40 man they will be unable to play in the minors next year if there is a work stoppage. Additions - beyond Coloumbe I anticipate trading for 1 SP and 1 more good to elite reliever. A Red Sox losing streak is my hope, and trading for Sonny Gray and Chapman is the ideal scenario. I would lose zero sleep on trading Rojas or Tait as the headliner with Roden as the additional piece. These are the questionable pieces we received last year that I'm not quite sure how they fit in the long term picture. As to starting pitching - I expect Ryan to avoid his normal 2nd half slump and Bradley to continue to become a low end #1, high end #2 pitcher. Someone like a Gray would really create a nice trio of starting pitchers. Lopez would replace Gray for 2027. Twins win the division and win the 1st round in the playoffs losing in the 2nd round as the hitters can't quite compete with more professional ball clubs.

The soonest would be a cup of coffee in 2027 and being the starting Catcher in 2028. The minors will go on next year no matter what so here would be the timeline. August - Sent to high A+ - Does well acclimates well to the wood bat. September - late call up to AA 2027 - starts in AA and continues to rake June/July - Promotion to AAA Sept - cup of coffee with the Twins to acclimate for 2028 To me this feels like the most optimistic timeline and would work out really really well with their current Catching in the Majors. The Twins will have Caratini and Jackson to hold down the MLB for next year, then they have very little options for 2028 moving forward. Its Tait, Diaw, Tinney and Lackey.

Doogie acted as if it is still available this offseason. After than I think it goes away. This is likely the last year. Researching further - Qualifying offer needs to be made 5 days after the World Series. Players have until Mid November to accept. The current CBA goes through December 1st of 2026.

Teel is interesting. Family connections, resources and the ability to get massive advice from his brother. He was solid if not unspectacular, but there is upside. He likely needs just a little more more, and a little more hit tool and he could be a good depth piece. Turner is the fireplug with good hit tool we have repeatable drafted or picked up as UDFA. Lane was a target and from a couple draft people he is stated as one of the better draft picks for the Twins in the last 10 rounds. Good defense, solid bat - needs some refinement. He did have a violation of team rules which is why he left San Diego. He has the upside to make it in the minors. He is well worth monitoring. Bouchard - I am not seeing. There is likely something they like, and maybe with maturity and refinement they can find something. Sholvin is similar to Turner - solid bat, willing to take the HBP. 19 more HBP pitches than walks in the last 2 years LOL. Thats funny. I actually like taking more hitters in these rounds and they don't feel massively different than some of the picks we have made in the 2nd to 5th rounds in prior years. I think all in all its a really solid draft. Elite player Lackey, Upside in Tinney and some solid pitching prospects and hitters but nothing that truly jumps off the page.

LOL - say what you will the Twins drafter every version of a pitcher they could find - much more variability than prior years except an elite pitching prospect like prior years. Solid pitcher with good stuff good control well rounded - Renfrow High upside prospect - Wachsmann High Velocity - primarily 2 good pitches with command/control issues (Reliever risk and high variability) - Lapour Murdock Burns - Scouting Director said they viewed Lapour as a 1st round pitcher (which is interesting) Senior sign - bonus savings solid Pitcher limited upside- Lay, Klecker Pitchers with 1 elite pitch - Bayles, Tall Lanky Pitcher to refine - Raab Control Pitchers who currently have nothing elite - need velocity and at least 1 elite pitch - Bouchard, Mattison Moutzouridiis, Barnett The Twins this year had much more variability in their pitching prospects this year. I hope it works out. The last 2 years drafts other than the elite picks have not added a ton so far to the minors. Some due to injuries some due to underperformance. I think the Twins lost a key pitching coach a couple of years ago. I truly hope some of these guys figure it out.

Twins appear willing to lean into high upside pitchers with reliever risk - Lapour, Murdock, Burns. To me it appears they have an intention to try and draft more reliever prospects, rather than just converting starters to relievers. If either of these 3 develop a 3rd pitch and gain some control you have high a high upside starter prospect.

The full return on the trade deadline selloff is complete. I was firmly in the belief getting an elite draft pick would be the biggest return from tanking the remainder of the season and from the prospects received. The Twins ended with getting the #3 pick who was clustered with the other two, a likely top 25 global prospect and was viewed similarly to Posey and Rutschman. Now there is variability of performance at the catcher level. This was a massive win for the organization. If we had not traded we most likely end up with Burress, Bell, Lombard or Lebron. They are good prospects, but all have some warts. Lackey is effectively wart free for a catcher which is crazy. Here is the return now as I see it. #1/#2 Pitcher Bradley- 2029 Potential Franchise Catcher - Lackey Abel #2-#4 Rojas backend rotation or bullpen piece Tait - power bat but still young and working on swing decisions ton of variability (after the draft I think I trade him) Mendez - has an MLB bat - maybe the best return Roden - I feel like a similar player to Larnach with slightly better defense - Misc - Jimenez (C upside), Horn and Gallagher - solid but stuff likely not good enough MLB In hindsight, as most stated at the time, trading and losing Varland who wanted to stay in Minnesota was likely the biggest loss. However I am think its highly unlikely the Twins then do not have the ability to draft Lackey. The Twins could have won 6-8 more games with him guiding the bullpen last year and would have kept morale higher. The team quit in August and September. Varland has turned into an elite closer, but all in all the sell off worked as painful as it was. I still think it would have been in the Twins best interestto have traded Ryan before the season - as the intention appeared to be but Pohlad just didn't have the stomach for it. Say what you will Tom appears steadfast on adding to this team and competing as he stated. I think we give some table scraps to continue to rebuild the bullpen such as getting Coloumbe. At the deadline things will get interesting. I hope the Red Sox fall back. I think the Twins after some of these moves, are an elite reliever and #3 pitcher away from competing in the playoffs. Would they be willing to create a package around Rojas or Tait - with someone like Roden and maybe a sweetener to get Gray and Chapman? Right now I say no. If the Twins are winning the Red Sox lose more - bringing back Sonny Gray would be a PR dream (plus a good player) along with an elite closer. I honestly don't think the Twins still have enough, especially professional hitters, but with a rebuilt bullpen - Chapman, Gomez, Morris, Nance, Sands, Coloumbe, Go, Rogers - That would solidify the bullpen and actually potentially make it a strength. Granted its a 2 month rental, and this likely isn't the year to go for it, but honestly I wouldn't be opposed. You would have a 3 headed pitching monster in Ryan, Bradley, Gray. Tom has stated he isn't trading any of the key players unless we lose, Ryan, Jeffers and Buxton and stated he wanted to see trades for the bullpen - 1 day later we got Nance. I think Tom wants to show he is a man of his word. It could be short sighted but it would definitely be fun. What a reversal from last year, and the deadline deals and tank really have improved the organziation and outlook for the future.

Nightingale has already reported unless the Twins fall out of contention the next 2 weeks they aren’t trading Jeffers. Pohlad say what you will wants to go for it and complained we weren’t being active enough trading for bullpen pieces. Next day or two we picked up Nance. I put the odds we get Coloumbe at 90%. That is a cheap pickup likely cash or minor piece. We need 1 high leverage arm- knocks everyone down a spot and the bullpen could be above average.