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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Kepler has a career 20+ WAR. What I am discussing is the expected stats vs actual. The difference most people call is luck, others say it is due to other circumstances or issues and not truly luck.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    How can you defend one signing but go after the others, or go after my previous post? All these signings are gamble on an expected performance. Thinking you can pull something out of a player others have been unable to. For as much consternation as Kepler got here, I think that is going to be the type of player France is here if he makes the team. It will be whether the hard barrels, can translate into hits. If so you could have a mini renaissance to his 2020-2021 levels. A 2-3 War could be possible. For 1 million its a reasonable gamble. its no more of gamble than Gallo. The question is whether it is redundant with Miranda and Julien. 1 more option to flash seems like a good option. Yes I wish they were willing to spend more but until we can get new owners that isn't going to change.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I do think dodgers kicked in more, but that was the article I found. Ok, so yes we were both right, Dodgers kicked in another $2 million dollars. So that is how they got to $4 million, but that was including the 2 million that was intended for the 2025 buyout as well. In total Twins paid him $6 million is my guess.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is owed a $10 million salary in 2024 with a $2 million buyout of his $12 club option for 2025. The Rays are paying $4 million as part of the trade with the Dodgers-- $2 million in 2024 plus the $2 million buyout if Margot's option is declined -- so Margot is an $8 million player for the Twins. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-trade-manuel-margot-to-twins-just-months-after-acquisition-bring-back-enrique-hernandez/#:~:text=He is owed a %2410,million player for the Twins.&text=Margot is a career .
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Margot - $8 million Gallo - $11 million Bader - $4. million with a maximum $1.5 million buyout based on plate appearances France - $1 million Bader and France are no where near a Margot, Colome or Gallo situation. With all these bottom barrel signings you are hoping for that 25% chance or less of a breakout year - or a solid year on an aging player like Santana. We like to crap on the signings that don't work out but tend to forget the Santana, Solano, Nelson Cruz contracts really working out. France won't just be trotted out there consistently, you have Miranda and Julien that will be pushing him and may outplay him in spring ball. France hit the ball hard last year, but also had an uptick on his whiff percentage, if he can get just a little more lift and turn more ground outs into singles, and singles into doubles, he is back to the player he was in 20 and 21.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    France, gives another shot at finding something special at 1st base. For 1 million and Headrick, I think that is more than fair. This isn't a Gallo situation of giving a 11 million of money that the front office will feel tied too. France hit the ball very hard last year, but was unlucky, similar type player to Kepler, so with that in mind I am not surprised they took a chance on him. Yes there is no great 1st baseman on the team right now, but hopefully we can find 1 to play solid 1st base, and 1 to be a decent DH.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The biggest question is whether these major league or minor league signings.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So effectively this move and the extra $5 million came out at the same time, or very close together.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If you have known about the move for a week, why is it just now getting announce, is there a secondary move or trade coming down that would affect the 40 man, or is this just 1 off move that took a while to process.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is 1 caveat, and it was another Orioles pitcher, Lopez, we tried to change his pitch mix, and whether confidence, mental, personal issues, he struggled mightily. It might be a situation where it was a small sample size for the 1st half of the year, and the fact he has never been able to re-find the consistency or performance. My only hope is we don't now try to trade Duran, Jax - trying to create and excess value situation. Thinking they found extreme value in Coloumbe, and trying to convert that value into either starting pitching or a hitter.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    For $2.5 million its a solid signing, and creates much more flexibility in the bullpen.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Unless you trade one for 1 of the best pitchers in baseball- get 7.8 WAR plus a compensation pick in the 2024 draft. The Petty for Gray trade utilizing a high school pitcher created an extreme positive return for the organization.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Mcdonalds server guy. Damn I am sure the Twins wish they had gone a different route with this pick. Tipping pitches to get the season over with . . . just crazy.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I just saw this, I am not sure if you are serious or not. First you have to realize hitting on an Ober is incredibly slim. What is happening is we are having all kinds of pitchers popping up every year from the drafts. Varland, Funderburk, Winder, Sands, Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Culpepper and then of course Ober. That is a ton of prospects in the 5th round or later and only from the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 drafts. Of the prospects that make it to the league, several will flame out. For as good as Varland looked at times, it appears his stuff just isn't quite good enough as a starter. You have to realize it takes time to develop these guys. Ober is from 2017. Festa and Matthews, have the talent and flew through the system. We will see how they continue to develop.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Early on they went with a lot of college arms but since the start of the decade that has changed. 2020 - Raya 2021 - Petty (traded for Sonny Gray- 2 years 7.8 WAR of performance and Kyle Debarge as a comp pick) 2022- None (took Priellip as the high upside pick) 2023 - Soto and Questad 2024 - Dasan Hill In my opinion, the Twins have done incredibly well with their high school pitchers. The Petty trade was phenomenal. Even still Petty is a high upside pitcher (#8 in the Reds deep system). Soto has the highest ceiling, and showed dramatic improvement throughout the year. Soto is still primarily projection, but what he was showing at the end of the year was impressive. It all depends when they are willing to let Raya let it fly and go deeper into innings. Questad struggled in FCL, but they may have been working on things. he was really a lottery pick in the 5th round for 500k. Hill has as high as upside as anyone, 6'4" lanky frame, velocity jumped last year to mid 90's. Lots of spin but need some work and refinement on the secondary pitches.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We had very few arms in the FCL. That doesn't take away from Bohorquez. He showed right away he belonged stateside with his late season performance in A ball. The other thing is even though limited innings he got stronger throughout the year even with jumping to A ball. Here are his BA from June to Sept .195 .189 .152 .100 (1 start - 3 inninings) Now onto OBP .327 .311 .298 .182 Next is OPS .522 .663 .516 .382 Hopefully the Twins can unlock just a little more velocity, but his secondary pitches look legit already. He was basically an afterthought, only signing for 10k. If he can become something would be pretty remarkable.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This article is pretty solid. Showing that if he has a good season which is completely reasonable he could jump into our top 20 prospects. If velocity continues to tick up, and he gains more control, with that slider, you have a very effective starter. Really need to work on lengthening him out. Only 53 innings last year. A 2.2 ERA in A ball in 16 innings (extremely small sample size), ultimately show he belongs stateside to continue development.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We have done very well with improving the defensive metrics on catchers. I feel more comfortable that we get him up to average to above average, than him re discovery his above average hit tool and power.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This may be the deepest we have been this century. Yes the top end is depleted compared to last year, but the depth is absolutely absurd. If we had any bullpen in the lower levels, you could have all 4 levels in the minors competing at the top of their leagues because of the depth. In your 30 to 50 prospect rankings, you will have the majority of the 2023, and 2024 pitching prosects, if which I am fairly confident you will have 2-3 major leaguers based on historical averages with 1 high end pitcher. For example Tanner Hall had a rough year, maybe be around 45-50, if the control comes back (which he had for 4 years in college), with a little more velocity he is #2 type pitcher in the big leagues. I understand why he is so low, but even still, you have potential, and in a lot of cases its been the 2nd year where prospects have really taken off in the system. You will also have hitters that have a shot at the MLB McCusker, Rodriguez, Keirsey, Acuna.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Actually, his hit tool is better than anticipated. The fact he was able to more than hold his own at A ball as a 19 year old is pretty impressive. June was his best month by far then got injured. He came back struggled, then had a pretty good August, Sept was just 5 games, so even though poor numbers extremely small sample size. He was 2 years younger than the average player. Yes to remain this high on the rankings list, his hit tool will have to continue to improve, but with his speed and power and defense, He is almost the full package. That you got him in the same draft as Jenkins is absurd. That 2023 draft I have said has the potential to be an absolutely game changer draft for this organization. We can be upset what is occurring at the big league level right now, but there is some major reasons to still be optimistic about the future, and Winokur is a major part of the reason for that optimism. I expect a jump to high A and actually better performance than this year, as he adjusts to being a professional and continues to receive more instruction, and continue to develop into his massive frame. Assuming this occurs he will easily be a top 5 prospect by the end of the year.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Overall not a great return but still decent. Its not as if Polanco did well this year at all.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Culpepper is the most likely. He was a high draft pick and performed well, especially if continues to do well as goes up to higher levels. Priellip will be dinged by health concerns. Even still his stuff is very very good. Winokur and Dasan Hill have the highest ceilings. Winokur at the end of the season was really piling on the stats. You could have 2 elite outfielders at the same time, with Winokur and Jenkins. Hill is a lefty with a lot of projection - but effectively could be 6'5" Priellip. Extremely high spin, Velocity is in the 93 range, if that gets up to 96 to 97, You have an extremely dangerous weapon with likely great extension coming from a lefty.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    A couple comments. 1. The Pohlads have already put out the feelers for anyone interested. Instead of the Angels or Washington, they have already gaged the interest. The Pohlads and Twins hold on to information as long as they can. Just look at contracts for Falvey and Baldelli. My guess is a reporter was going to break the story and this is pretty far along. 2. The change in TV revenue is showing it was a major implications for the budget, for profits, but also likely much more uncertainty and a lower price that the Pohlads can get in selling the team. They have a solid team and prospects though which is currently a valuable asset for someone wanting to purchase a team to be set to win right away with good long term prospects.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    NM - error in the system, reposted previous message.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its a bad situation. The person you feel bad for is Ross Dunn. He has had an up and down season, he just ruined that outing for him. As to Bender this event doesn't have to define him but this is not a good start to his career. The bat can play, between cape cod, Coastal Carolina and the first couple weeks, the bat is solid enough to be a catcher. There was always a question whether he could remain a catcher. If he wants to keep playing will likely have to go to the independent leagues. Or maybe another team will take a chance on him. Not sure I would have him play catcher to start out but I think you can gradually get to the point where you can trust him. Time generally heals all. I said during the draft last year the Twins should draft Keaton Anthony last year. He bet on college games and I believe even baseball games. Was it dumb, absolutely. Could he learn from it, I would sure hope so. Phillies signed him as a udfa and by all accounts did very well and got to AA. Just like Anthony, this was a very very bad move for Bender, but I do hope he gets another chance if he wants to keep playing - it just won't be with the Twins.
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