Hawkeye Bean Counter

I have no concerns with Arreaz wanting a bigger contract and getting paid what he feels he is worth. Even still this is a very good trade possibly great trade. If López is a #2 pitcher for us for the next two years it is worth trading Arreaz along with the two prospects. I expect Arreaz to regress with being in a stronger division. A .290 -.300 average hitter is still good but with no power it is not worth López potential. Arreaz was a great Twin and I hope he proves me wrong and gets the payday he deserves.

I keep thinking back to Moneyball, Do we care about batting average . . . no they get on base. Arreaz gets on base .380 of the time. There is an aspect of being able to move players on the basepaths, but the issue with Arreaz is with the shift he will be the worst defensive 2nd baseman in the league. He then will be clogging up 1st base or DH at bats. You need some power from 1st and DH and arreaz just cannot do that. Getting back to moneyball, we have a player that can easily replace Arreaz in the next year or two. It is Edouard Julien. In AA his OBP is .440. he gives about the same quality of defense, maybe slightly more range than Arreaz. So effectively what I am saying is we have players coming up that are effectively duplicates of Arreaz value, they just get there differently and will likely be able to man 2nd base unlike Arreaz. To then be able to get a #3 pitcher (with 2 years of control) for Arreaz (4 years of control) is a steal in my mind. Add in you Salas who is currently our #13 prospect and then a lottery pick. Other than the personal love for Arreaz I just don't understand those being upset with the trade. Arreaz had a .385 batting average in 140 at bats against the White Sox and Kansas City. That means a 1/4 of his at bats occurred against what was weak pitching (for white sox primarily occurred against replacement pitchers last year). The only team with semi weak pitchers in the NL East is Washington but they were much better than Kansas City. Essentially I am saying he had inflated stats. Arreaz will have to be a 10% better player next year just to maintain the stats he had for the Twins is my opinion and I don't think he will be able to do that. If he is a .290 hitter with no power then almost all of the value of Arreaz is gone. We can love the player yet at the same time know that this was a very very good deal for the Twins.

Enlow and Ortega both passed on waivers. So effectively we now have 3 lottery arm type pitchers in Alexy, Enlow and Ortega. Hopefully one of them can take the jump up.

If the Twins offered it, it tells me a couple things, this new surgery method is looking pretty good and they are confident in it. 2. They like Paddacks talent. I actually thought his fastball primarily sitting at around 93 was lower than what I was expecting from him in the early spring. Maybe that increases a tad after the surgery. I think the Twins were also able to get a little more consistency to make him a better pitcher in the few starts we saw him than when he was with the Padres. I have a feeling people are going to be pretty happy about that trade at the end of the day.

I will take a different opinion, Correa didn’t save the off-season. This board was going through the bottom dregs only a week ago. The statements were numerous . One signing does not take us to euphoria. What it is and what it does is he following, you have to be able to spend money and have at minimum 2 stars you have on long term contracts to supplement with young players and the proverbial role players. We were able to lock in the star and spend the money on what appears to be a reasonable contract. We still need a lot more things to fall into place and finding a #1 SP is the major piece we are still looking for, No one will know if this was a good contract for at least 3-4 years. I am always one looks more at the long game than letting emotion overcome the current circumstances. At the same token I am generally optimistic and expected from the beginning for Correa to resign with us and as things were going sideways posted my reasoning why I thought the Twins would come out on top with a 6 for 210 mil contract as my base case.

I actually agree that Torri has a shot, at the hall and will be more revered by his peers. To me he was just a tad light on the counting stats. I think if he gets over 2500 hits, slightly more homers, and over 200 steals, he is viewed as basically a shoe in with his defense. If he pushed to 400 home runs he is a 1st ballot hall of famer. I think he should be in, I think compared to his peers he comes in a tad light for the writers.

Mets can’t afford the deal, I know it seems odd to say but with the luxury tax the Mets were already at a pain point. As to Giants they had already pivoted plus likely had a bad taste in their mouth.

Its 2 issues, either concerns the plate will need to be replaced in 5-10 years, or the more likely outcome, there is signs of arthritis already beginning to show on the MRI that would potentially limit his ability several years down the road. I would say the most likely outcome isn't the concern in 1 year or 3 years. The concern starts creeping up around that 6-8 year window, hence only being guaranteed 6 years by the Mets and only receiving 6 years from the Twins. A couple doctors came out earlier and said if he was able to pass physicals, then the plate was likely holding up well, the concern with the surgery is then arthritis and especially with an athlete, that would be putting extreme stress on the joint and ankle it would like become an issue down the road.

Lets be realistic here, Correa and Boras is all about finding the most money they could get. Correa is a total profession so I have no concerns he will have a bad attitude in future years. Yes this didn't work out like he wanted, and the Twins were a fallback option, but he fits in well with the Twins. Lewis and Lee both become either fall back options of Correa's health doesn't hold up, trade chips or moved to other positions. It creates more flexibility for what the Twins want to achieve in the future. This deal works well for all parties.

I have wanted to say this all offseason. The Twins decided to shop at Target rather than Dior but it all worked out.

Ted gets some credit here. Good Job.

3 hours later and this article is severely outdated. Extremely bad timing on the article, but one I am sure we are all happy about.

If they are the third team to pass on Correa, the team would get a free pass. You also are underestimating the fact Correa may not want to come back to the Twins. If thats the case there isn't much the management could do.

I think it would be hilarious if this is the day that Correa signs with the Twins. Effectively this article would go up in smoke.

Based off this Bowden it seems Mets fans are getting optimistic. It is hard to say at this point. With Correa nothing is done until the signs, personally I thinks he would rather be a met than a twins player and we were merely used as leverage.

As a note Jim Bowden on mlb radio stated Correa would sign a deal with the Mets they were just finalizing details, supposedly this was from someone close to Correa, relative maybe? I think this will be over by Monday night one way or another.

It’s one year 30mil too much if that’s the contract, compared to what he could get elsewhere and with the risk of the ankle. I will be very curious to see if they front load salary and how many opt outs there will be.

I think he clears waivers. How many Teams are going to use a 40 man roster spot on a AA pitcher that has over a 4 ERA. Enlow is essentially on the fringe of what the Twins see as their future. They view him as someone they wanted to protect from Rule 5, but now that many rosters have been filling up, there is much less of a risk someone will claim him. He is the twins #20 prospect and is 2-3 years away.

They will have a full year of Maeda, Mahle and Lopez. Miranda will be older. We have 2-3 young hitters that we will see if they can finally be healthy. You have Ober and Winder, who we won't need to put as much innings demands on them to try to keep them healthy. We may be able to trade Kepler. This team has much much more quality and experienced pitching depth than at this time last year. You also have Paddack that may be able to help on the backside. What will be interesting is what version of Pagan do we get, late August Sept, or the rest of the year or is he also a trade chip. This will be a better team, especially if they can sign Correa, not necessarily that they will be able to make the playoffs, but I am good with solid ball and finding key cogs we can build around in the future.

Just wait, if we sign Correa many of these same people will have a new argument against the Twins front office :). What is the writers stance if they sign Correa at what is considered a reasonable contract? Suddenly the Twins Front office is brilliant, waited it out and got one of the best players to potentially one of the best contracts this year? Things move quickly in baseball, including Correa potentially getting hurt and essentially be done with baseball in a couple years. That is the risk assessment the front office needs to take. I'll sit back and see if the Twins get 2nd opportunity at the Correa apple.

This is coming to a resolution fairly quickly. Likely the mets and this is just posturing to get over the final leg, or a shorter deal with more guaranteed money than what the mets are offering currently will get it done. If it doesn't get resolved by monday will likely see him pivot to the Twins.

I'm not so sure. The risk in the insurance is likely primarily in years 8-12. So on a 8-9 year contract the insurance agents may be willing to take on the risk, especially if structured in such a way where more of the contract is front loaded vs later in the contract. Its becoming fairly clear the Mets are unwilling or unable to add more salary to the next few years.

I disagree, for the man with all the money he needed a 12 year deal to sign him, why to lower the AAV and reduce the tax burden. With the additional tax what is potentially 7-8 million more for a year for a shorter contract, is 14 to 15 mil with the luxury tax for the Mets.

Boras and Correa want the best deal period. I do think Correa would prefer being in a big market (Dior anyone?). I also believe Cohen wants him, The issue is the years and insurance, and my belief that as rich as Cohen is, he is tapped out on Salary for the next couple years. If clauses have the potential to wipe out the last 4-5 years of the deal, this is really a 200 million offer. At that point a higher AAV deal with shorter amount of years makes sense and I think the Twins would play in that playground. Odds are both sides give a little and Correa officially becomes a Met, however I am ready for the next chapter of this Soap opera.

2 of 3 are bad, but the 1 has the potential of giving us a #1 starter that we haven't legitimately had since Santana and Liriano. I am fine with them leaving at the reliever position, he did really well in that role last year, but damn would it be amazing if he could become an ace.