Hawkeye Bean Counter

Kepler is a very good right fielder, he is dependable, solid in the field and when his bat gets hot is one of the better outfielders in the game. There is still an outside shot he gets really hot the remainder of the year and the Twins can tag him hoping to get an additional 1st round pick. With the organizations allergy to increased payroll right now and Kepler just being good not great so far, this is not the most likely outcome, but still a possibility. I do wonder . . . Falvey said they had something in the works that effectively fell through. I am wondering if it did include in some format Kepler going to the Yankees for Cortez. It was pretty evident Cortez was on the block dependent on them getting Flaherty and that obviously fell through. What is weird is they went and got another SP and still didn't trade Cortez. Who knows what was going on there.

Yep its right . . . Ummm, you are saying you couldn't find anyone to trade Staumont to for a prospect in a sellers market?

if you are facing 2 lefties in the next 3 batters it isn't.

He fills a role, don't put him in leverage situations against righties, and he does pretty well. Wish we could have gotten a slightly higher quality reliever, and maybe they think they can tweak him. Jay Jackson from Toronto doesn't give me a lot of hope though 😉. Oh well lets see if they do anything else. Hey but no one can say they didn't make a trade at the deadline . . . LOL.

Eh, for what we paid, can be a useful piece in the bullpen. Really we didn't have that many holes. Unless something jumps out this is likely it as I suggested earlier. The prices were just too high to get much accomplished with a long term goal of competing year in and year out.

Since Tarik is divisional rival, and they don't have to trade, and there seems to be a massive premium this trade season, I think that calculator is a tad off. How about 4 of our top 6 prospects to get those 2 players. That is probably what you are looking at.

Now Baltimore getting Rogers.

I think Philly, Baltimore, Yankees and Dodgers would still be ranked higher. Even if they are all in the same grouping you are looking at no better than 20% shot at a WS. If you think this is the time to go all in fine. I just think you will have better opportunities to go all in, and likely in years where it is not an extreme sellers market.

What was the dodger salary that year? How good of a team were they? They were an elite teaming adding to it. If the Twins added a #1 pitcher and an elite reliever they would still not be the favorites to win the world series. That effectively is my point.

Similar to Kikuchi, I think the value of a pitcher who has potentially more stuff is going to be much more expensive than a SP like Fedde. Will know here shortly. Thinking we will stand pat.

Interdivisional trade, sounds like something very feasible chpettit. Deadline deals are generally overpay. Its offseason deals where you tend to get more equal value. Giving up Emma Fest and Raya, likely is hurting, but if you are going for it, you will need at least 1 more good reliever so giving up another top 7 prospect maybe more. I am also not sure Detroit would think those 3 are enough. They would probably want to swap Jenkins for Rodriguez. The theory is if you are going for it, you are probably trading for a #1 pitcher, very expensive, you are trading for an elite reliever, still costly, maybe uprgrading another reliever and possibly upgrading a bat. You would likely be giving up 5-6 of your top 10 prospects and a couple of you 10-20 prospects as well. Just look how much we gave for Mahle. So when looking at it from that front, yes you are using most of your ammo for mostly a 1 year increase in chances to get to the playoffs. Prospects are prospects, but who would have thought SWR would be providing the value he is to the team this year.

Pretty much if you get to the playoffs you have a 5% chance. So as much as yes you want to play silly games, I would like multiple chances at winning it all, than 1 slightly better chance in 1 year.

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities, or 5-6 with 6-8% for each year. Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario. Now you can go the Braves route, where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay. Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle, different strategies have worked, 2 elite pitchers, ok pitching good hitting, great bullpen ect. Looking at this team, you have right now would could be a very good bullpen, 2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth. Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole. Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs, and hope things begin to break your way. I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago. Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need. Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason. Which means if they were to trade Duran, it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.

The issue is the Twins would be asking for salary as well, as they are unable to take on more salary, increasing the trade compensation, and risk.

Honestly, the bullpen isn't that far off, and if Topa looks solid, potentially a top 5 bullpen. Theilbar has been the biggest one to fall off. Honestly a solid lefty relieve, possibly let Theilbar go and that is a very deep bullpen. Alcala, Duran, Jax, Okert, Sands, Staumont, Stewart, (add Topa, and replace Theilbar unless he begins to turn it around).

Supposedly, Margot Kepler and . . . wait for it . . . Duran are potentially players the Twins would be willing to trade. I still think Kepler you keep to see if can get hot during the stretch and can get another comp pick in next years draft, unless someone is willing to do a massive overpay. I think the Twins have the same theory with Duran, if you want to do a massive overpay fine, but what we would be looking for is reliever help or SP, so seems like it would be hurting more than helping. I still really trust Falvey and Levine and the direction they go in. Most deals they end up ahead on, and they have continued to build up the farm system. It does seem like the Pohlads are really starting to tighten up the purse strings. I thought might be a one off due to the television issues, but it appears to be more than that. Really curious to see if anything happens in the next 36 hours, honestly I am not expecting much.

On the 40 man LOL.

Actually no, with Hill and Carpenter they overpaid, 1,190,000 million. With Debarge, Diaw, Ferrar, Kendle, Bender, Jones, Hall, Doktorczyk, and Carr the Twins have saved 1,233,000. Looks like will be pretty close to slot or slightly over for Culpepper unless will go over slot for a few more players that remained unsigned.

So it has kind of been mentioned but Priellip has obviously been missed (never mind 48, wow). Likely needs to be anywhere from 7-15, after 4 very sharp innings. The clean and easy way would be to slot him in where Martin is. There is a possibility he could rise as high as 4-5 if he is able to lengthen out his starts to 4-5 innings at high A and continues to be as dominant and sharp as he has been. If he has another set back though 12-20 definitely seems to be a decent range for a player that will likely be a reliever, even with as good of stuff as he has. However, if ceiling is the goal as stated he may end up being your best pitching prospect in the minors, even though I would keep him below Morris, Festa, and Zebby for this year. Two other quibbles would be no Lee or Langenberg in your top 50 prospects. Beyond that it is interesting and continues to show a very deep farm system. The quality of prospects at 50 is effectively comparable to the top 30 prospects of 3-4 years ago.

All good, just enjoy the win 😉. Lots to be happy about.

Hell of a win. Also may take the edge off of absolutely needing a SP at the trade deadline. Festa definitely looked serviceable today. Hell of a game heck of a series with a lineup that had a lot of back ups in. Sounds like Correa and Miranda are getting ready to come back. We will see the status of Buxton, but he stayed on the basepaths, so likely nothing too serious. Great job Twins. Edit: Even better, X-rays negative for Buxton and it seemed like it was not bothering him at all in the clubhouse.

Pen or Starter, will wait and see. They give every player the opportunity to prove themselves at the lower levels. They see something they can work with, that is enough for me. If either a pen or starter position and starts to flash, will be worth the pick.

The rankings as a whole do not matter to me. However, what Matthews is doing deserves to be a top 5 ranking. Festa slightly below. Matthews is looking like a solid #3 type pitcher. Where it gets interesting is we now have 4 pitchers with extremely high ceilings, players could potentially be a #1 type pitcher with varying degrees on those probabilities. The least likely is Canterino, they guy has great stuff he just has been unable to stay healthy. We will go with another health issue but I honestly feel more comfortable he has turn the corner and that is Priellip. Honestly, he may have the highest ceiling of any other pitcher. If he continues to flash what he has done in his first 2 outings I don't know how you don't have him in your top 6-8 rankings. Soto, would be right there as well. A very sturdy 18 year old, that is making big strides on command and letting his above average to elite stuff start to over take games. He still is a bit hit and miss, 1 to 2 good outings followed by a clunker, but as an 18 year old more than holding his own at A ball, and if continues what has done in his last 3-4 starts, may be showing he is beginning to dominate that level. Lastly Dasan Hill. Hasn't signed yet or thrown a pitch for us, but has an elite slider with a very good fastball. He needs to add weight to his frame, but again looks to have the potential to be a high end lefty pitcher. We have plenty of other pitcher options from the 21-24 drafts. The biggest knock is we have had no #1 type pitchers in the system. If you remove Canterino, we now have a shot at potentially 3 that could hold that mantle. That is a huge accomplishment for this organization. I hope one of those 3 or another pitcher in the system can get there in the next couple year.

Its not just the ability to add the velocity, but also the perceived velocity with a release point that is closer to home plate. You also add in the pitching angle which allows for more downward movement and there are definite advantages that occur from increased height. As much as mention the Zebby effect, Ober is our best example of this strategy. I think the Twins add it into their formula of success, but its not a necessity. We have had pitchers like Varland who have been relatively successful even with a shorter stature.