Hawkeye Bean Counter

LOL the statement should have been 4 2nd rounders. As to today, the real question is what is the money situation. Did they underslot the first 2 picks. Have they used up extra money on the last 2 picks. Do they have more money to try to get 1-2 more overslot players today, or do they have to go cheap? Lot of questions. Solid draft so far but not an obvious win per say in the draft so far.

I am firmly of the belief they believe players are currency. They think these 2 players are the safest bets to succeed given their hit tools, and can either become trade chips or help the big league team. Based on their previous history I cannot disagree, my guess is they will both do very well. As to Brecht I was a huge proponent. Even still I was expecting him to drop. But not to 38. Tells me more issues with either ability to pitch with more control or drive to be great. That is the one thing I was curious about, and had gotten some tea leaves. That would have been insight Langenberg could have given. Someone said this draft feels like we got 4 2nd rounders. I would say Culpepper is firmly a 1st rounder based on almost draft rankings, but yes we ended up with 3 other players who were likely top 50 type players. In a draft where there is minimal difference between the top 20 and top 60 players, I am more than fine allocating the money to get the best 4 players you can get.

The most memorable is what the Rangers did 2022. They drafted both Kumar Rocker in the 1st and Porter in the 4th. They had no 2nd or 3rd round draft choices, so dumped almost all bonus money into those 2 players, and negotiated lower on Rocker to get Porter as well. The 2019 is the most memorable for the Twins. As they were to give a much larger bonus to Will Holland in the 5th and Julien in the 17th for 3rd round money.

My guess is on pretty reasonable path to AA, .400 OBP in A ball right now, if contact improves a bit is in high A by end of season. Very reasonable path, if he doesn't but still looks solid nothing wrong with that either, In either case looks very very good. very few players at his age can make A ball to either doing very well or beginning to dominate.

He crushed in A ball last year. Right now contact just a tad off, but OBP exploding to almost .400, even with a week start. Watch the bat start to crush again shortly. He still looks like an elite prospect. No need to rush him, but if dominating a level for a month or two move him up. If he is crushing AA by age 20 to 21 really got something there.

Honestly pretty decent outing against a good team, just ran into a long inning and they decided to shut him down. He can learn from it. We got a 3 headed monster from last year in Matthews, Morris, and Lewis who is starting to get back on track. There are more from last years class doing well, but all 3 of those look legit good.

The Saints bats have really cooled after losing several players for a variety of reasons. Lee and Wallner both called up. Tony Kemp opted to go elsewhere. Lastly, I am surprised that this hasn't been discussed more A. his success B. Losing him likely for the rest of the season to injury - Will Holland. Will Holland has always been one that has had questionable hitting skills, but he has been making a ton of contact this year. We were at the Iowa Cubs game a week and a half a go when he got injured. Started raining (should have probably been delayed) ball went over his head hit the wall and bounced back, he sprinted to the wall realized going over his head tried to push off the warning track, jumped up a little and fell in pile. Really thought it was an ACL. I saw somewhere where it stated a Tibia fracture, but also seen hamstring pull and otherwise haven't heard an update as to what the injury was. As an aside, talked to Chris Williams before the game, he signed my sons ball, talked about how good the team was playing at the time. Told him he would get back on track. He said he appreciated it, would keep working at it. Hit a home run that night and been on a pretty good run since then. As to the minor leagues, you have lots and lots of prospects performing well. This is the best I have seen the FCL and DSL play, and each has 2-3 really solid prospects. Even after promoting Lee and Langenberg (who are both doing well in A+ ball), The remaining rookie pitchers in A ball are starting to figure it out. Still some decent prospects want to keep an eye on. Bengard and Santos are both performing very well. Bragg had before injury. Still waiting to see if Hall, Pasqualotto or Dunn can really turn the corner. Charlee Soto, is doing pretty darn well for an 18 year old, becoming more affective. Needs to bring down the whip some, 1.2 to 1.4, and with his strike out stuff would be pretty dominate. So far the walks aren't the issue its the hits. Beyond that this is going to long, you have bats and pitching prospects up and down the system. Things are looking very very well as an organization. Hope they can land a very good draft as well here in the next week.

Its a valid argument, will he even be available. In this draft I really think he is #21 to #30 pick with a possibility he could even get to our comp pick, especially if we play some with our bonus allotment like we have in past years. He didn't show enough to get bumped high enough in the draft, but also showed more than enough that he still is a #1 pitcher. I still think the Twins preference for elite sliders will come into play, as well as Langenbergs intel on A. the pitching coach and his lack of ability on coaching them, and B. Brechts mentality. I know most teams can get beads on players on their intel, but you have player that was in the trenches with him for 2+ years. It all could be for naught, and the Twins could very well go for college bats in the first 4 picks and load up on pitchers the remainder of the draft, their philosophy has worked well in the past. I just think Brecht will be #1 pitcher in MLB. I may be way too optimistic, but I think he has elite stuff and I think the Twins can unlock his full potential. If so who else on the draft board could give equal value?

Julien has a lot more value than Farmer, however as a 1st base/DH/2nd base back up, there is a some value there with his bat. Just need a little more refinement. Look at the rebound Miranda has had. In my opinion both Miranda and Julien can easily be in the top 30-40 hitters in the league, and you just don't give up on those type of players when they have flashed at the MLB level unless you are getting a massive return.

Is Paddack going to Pitch?

If you get both Larnach and Miranda back on track to be above average or elite hitters, that would have been a major success story. Julien took a step back and Kiriloff has floundered, but those 2 turning it around makes up for it. Julien appears to be getting closer to what he was last year, still needs to tweak a few things, I am still pretty optimistic about what he can provide, worst case scenario a pretty valuable trade chip.

This has been one of those picks where many have been disappointed but when you look at what he is doing it is damn impressive. He started off in A ball. It was pretty clear, the older competition was was a bit advanced for him and he struggled early with locating pitches. This is still a work in progress. For the year he is working on getting his ERA sub 6, and I think if he can get it to a 4 handle that would be a hell of an achievement. In his last 4 starts he has a 4.77 ERA which includes a clunker from 2 outings ago. They have lengthened him out to 4 innings per an outing, would like to see him become a bit more efficient down the stretch to begin pushing to 5 innings. The stuff is electric, it just needs a little more refining. But then you remind yourself, he is still only 18 years old, let me repeat that, 18 years old, and he is now more than holding his own at A ball where he is 4 years younger than the competition. If Soto was in this draft, I don't think he lasts to the Twins comp pick. The question with Soto was his rawness and how he would handle a full pitching load, as had not been a pitcher until his last couple years. With a 6'5" and thick frame, it looks pretty apparent the body can hold up to the rigors of a full season. He needs to continue to improve, but if he continues to become more consistent, a promotion to A+ ball next year as a 19 year old is well within reach.

I have stated for a long time, I think Brecht fits the Twins system better than almost any other pitcher. Elite slider (which twins emphasize), developing 3rd pitch splitter. Already elite fastball. Iowa pitching coach let go. We already picked up Langenberg from Iowa last who has performed much better than he did last year at Iowa (last year is when the pitching coach came). He is the closest thing to a #1 pitcher you could find in this draft, at pick #21 it is worth gambling you can work with him to get slightly better location (which I might add improved this year). If the location doesn't improve marginally (and that is all you need), you literally have a Duran starter kit. The Twins may very well go the safe route and get another college bat, but with the bats doing so well in the system, what this organization needs is a #1 pitcher. Go give yourself a chance at getting a true ace.

WAR wise, he is on track for another 3+ WAR year. 3rd year in the last 4 of 3+ WAR. Not exactly someone in decline. Torii Hunter had 27.3 WAR in his age 31 to 37 years. Am I expecting that, not especially, could he play 130 games the next 3-4 years and average 3.5 WAR across those 3-4 years, absolutely. His speed is not dropping considerably. When that does, maybe you can say he is in decline. Even still could be a great player. Last I checked you always need a 4th outfielder. The fact our 4th outfielder gets more play isn't actually and issue, you may need to pay a little more for a little better quality back up, but ultimately the games Buxton does play for you, is worth the games he is on the shelf. Once he starts a hot streak, he tends to stay on it for a while, I think in a couple weeks month or two, your take on Buxton could look pretty silly, until his next injury of course, LOL. In either case I will continue to enjoy when he is a true asset to the team.

How exactly is it a premium when on average you are receiving $30 million worth of value and only paying $15 million? You can't have everyone on a rookie contract.

If he averages over a 2 to 3 war over the years, by definition he would be worth the contract. Some people.

Buxton when healthy and hitting the ball well is a top 20 player in baseball with his defense. For $15 million that is a steal every day of the week. Now you will have varied performance from year to year due to the injuries, however I think the knees have been an issue for a while and I think that might finally be resolved. Be happy we have him here.

Lee, Julien and Wallner all are tearing it up. Those are good things, I would love to see all 3 on the big league team. If all 3 are up and doing well, the offense should really be rolling. You would be letting go of farmer and 2 other players, but you have a lot of quality at bats especially with Lee and Julien. If not some definite solid trade bait there as well.

Maybe you are right, I think with the increase velocity on the fastball, it is just not creating enough movement and its creating too many opportunities for good players to crush it. It really decreases the chance of continued success.

Miller needs to be a below average bat to be a defensive backup in the big leagues, his bat isn't there yet. Doncon, needs to be an above average bat, and so far at 20 years old, appears to be well on track. Hopefully the hit tool continues to be solid with some decent power. This could end up being a decent trade for the twins. Especially if Margot can keep up his hot bat.

Honestly Ft. Myers isn't that bad, Pitching could really start to become dominant even with promoting Lee and Langenberg. Hall, Dunn, Soto, and now moving Bengard to SP. That could be a very strong starting 4, especially if Soto is starting to dial it in which I think he is. As to the hitters a little weak right now, but Jenkins could turn it around. Where is Winokur?? But Wingrove (independent league pick up) .929 OPS, Peyton Eeles .965 OPS, C Ruiz OPS .965, RF Hess 1.185, Winokur .759. You can build a lineup around that. Yes some independent league pickups, but some interesting talent there. Varland is just too much of a wildcard. Blow ups in MLB blow ups in AAA. I think he needs some time off to readjust. I think reliever is his only chance really at a decent career. Julien and Wallner really starting to get into a groove. Those appear to be next to options with injuries or underperformance. Nice to have those options, with minimal quality players available in trades this year.

Bad pick but that draft was still very very good, 1st round - Matt Wallner AAA, MLB 2nd round - Centerino - AAA (talent, can't stay healthy, last really chance here later this year into next year) 3rd - Spencer Steer- MLB 5th - Will Holland - AAA (hit tool finally coming around could be MLB bound soon) 6th - Sawyer Gipson Long - MLB tigers 7th - Anthony Prato - AAA (down this year, otherwise looked like top 2-3 options to go to MLB with injuries) 8th - Casey Legumina - MLB 9th - Brent Headrick - AAA, MLB see where he is once healthy 15th - Louie Varland - AAA, MLB - looked like a player struggling this year 18th - Edouard Julien - AAA, MLB - looked like top 50 player last year, still solid this year, but need to improve hit tool

I love all the qualifyers that are occurring to try to prove your thesis. You have to give the front office and coaches some ownership of developing previous draft picks is point #1. It takes 3-4 year to develop a prospect to be ready for the majors and in some cases more than that. So yelling about 7-8 years - really 7 drafts and with the middle one being Covid, you only have 3 drafts you would expect any major league talent from. 2ndly if the team is not investing much high draft capital into pitching you would not expect to have a ton of #1 pitchers and a huge pipeline. Lastly if you trade a drafted player for a current asset you most certainly get to use the value accrued. They are giving up future value for current value. Now lets look at the drafts and I am going to break into 3 groupings. 2017-2019 Draft - In 2017 2nd - Leach 3rd- Enlow 10 Faucher 12 Ober (5.3 War) 2018 No pitcher picked til 5th - 5th Sands (-.2 War), 7 Winder (.3 War) 15 Funderburk (.5 War) 219 2nd Canterino (#13 prospect) , 6th Gipson Long - traded for 1/2 season of Fulmer (.5 War), 8th Legumina - traded for Farmer (1.4 War) 15 Varland (.4 War) In total you ended with 8.2 War for the Twins from pitching prospects. Considering only 2 - 2nd round picks and 1 3rd round pick and you have ended up with a #3 starter, a couple #5 starters in Winder and Varland and a useable bullpen piece in Sands. For the Capital invested, that is a very good return. This is the Twins strategy, to take a lot of long shots and see if can develop, and find pitching from trades. While at the same time, really beginning to build a pipeline. Canterino is still a wild card, when healthy he can be a valuable piece for the organization, will he ever be healthy is the question. 2020 draft - - 4th round - Raya #6 Prospect 5 rounds really hurt the twins who like to find players deep in the draft. Even still you have Raya who has talent and ability. For a 4th round pick, really adds to the pipeline 2021-2023 2021 - 1st Petty (traded for Gray 7.8 WAR runner up Cy Young and 2024 #33 pick), 2nd round Hajjar (traded) - 3rd Povich (traded - currently SP for Orioles) , #13 Festa (#5 prospect), #14 Ohl, #19 Nowlin 2022 - 2nd Priellip (#16), 4th round Morris (#17), 8th round Matthews (#19), 9th round Lewis (#12), 13th round Culpepper (#8) Other than Priellip, all you can say is holy ****. That is a ton of talent from one draft for minimum drafted capital. Priellip like Canterino needs to stay healthy. The Twins really liked his stuff when he was able to pitch. 2023 draft - still a work in progress but a lot of arms and talent. and Lee and Langenberg already in A+ ball. Their biggest pick for pitching is Soto. In Summary the pitching picks of the last 3 drafts have given us the following - 7.8 War - a 2024 1st round pick - and 9 pitching prospects in the top 30. Festa currently looks like the best of the bunch, but I fully expect 1-2 arms from that 2022 class to succeed and make it to the big leagues. That is just too much talent, not all of it will flame out most likely. So we have accumulated 16 War from our pitching prospects drafted. Currently we have an above average starter in Ober, with Sands and Varland also being part of the team. We have in total 11 prospects drafted in our top #30 prospects and I expect that to go up at the end of the season as 2023 draft picks begin to get included. A possible #2 Festa, some #3 - #5, and true wildcards in Canterino, Priellip and Soto (each with slight chance at being a #1 or #2 but all with major question marks). So yes I think they have developed a pipeline. Yes I think they have traded away talent to help big leagues, and I expect much more to come in the future.

Who have they spend big draft capital on. That they have any type of pipeline is impressive. The fact they were left in with much either is something you have to acknowledge as well, As well as Covid messing things up in the middle. I am not saying its perfect, and there have been a few duds, but for the most part, the production they have gotten, and the pipeline developed with the total lack of high end draft picks is pretty damn impressive.

A tad bit, but already gone well in depth on the pitching pipeline, if you can't see a solid pipeline built on picks drafted on a couple 4th round picks, several in the 7-10 range and several more in the teens, I really don't know what to say. They have a built up a solid pipeline of #2 to #4 pitchers that should give the big leagues 1 to 2 solid options each year for the foreseeable future. Some will flame out or get injured, but its the number of prospects that is impressive. At the beginning of the season, people questioned the depth, even with Varland struggling, SWR and now Festa look like very solid options. If Festa can be a #2 or #3, You would have Ober, SWR, and Festa developed in the minors and 2 of them drafted. No offense that is pretty solid.