Hawkeye Bean Counter
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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter
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The other thing is go look at Mauers stats. They are similar OPS+ and both play defensive positions. Correa is just a tad behind Mauer. Correa was well on track for the hall of fame and still is. He is 29. 29-34 should be the prime of a players career. Hopefully we get an elite year from him and people can calm down LOL. The counting stats should still come especially if he is in the middle of the order for the next 6-7 years.
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Is Ryan Jeffers Underrated?
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sorry after reading a few of these, I think I should post something like. . . Are Twins fans underrating Tony O's Cubanos. It seems we are undervaluing everything LOL. Although you know me, lets throw Kepler in the mix LOL. -
Seems a tad silly. The average HOF WAR is between 50 and 70, Correa is sitting at 40. If you expect him to put up 1 WAR or less in the next few years then yes. However, his steamer is a 3.4 WAR for 2024. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at a 4-5 WAR. Any down year he has immediately bounce back. I think the plantar fasciitis, and a bit of free swinging hurt him last year. I think the bats will be much better this year. The one concern I do have is that I don't think Correa does well in the cold weather, so is prone to slow starts. So wait and see, but Buxton is more of a ? to me than the performance of Correa. All he needs is 2 really good years, 4-5 War, 2 good years, 2-3 War, and 4 years of 1 WAR. That is 19 more WAR and puts him firmly in the HOF discussion. Now if he can lead the Twins deep into the playoffs and a possibly WS like Puckett, with his other WS in Houston I think he would be a lock. Yes those are lofty goals, but I think that is what the Twins envisioned when they signed him. The pitching is really starting to round into shape and I think the hitters will do very well this year, with more quality players on the farm. I think in a year or Two we will see 2023 was just a blip for Correa.
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2024 International Signings
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to AlwaysinModeration's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
What I was suggesting is before we got the number for De Los Santos, it seemed they had put in a lot of their budge on top two players. Beltre signed for $1.5. However De Los Santos signed for $1.9 quite a bit less than I expected. Even still, you have 50% of your budget in 2 players. What is curious is whether a team is trying to get the elite players in the top 10, or going for several in the 50-100 range. I was expecting something similar to last year where they had 88% in 3 players. I still think its top heavy with 2 high level signings, but a bit more spread out than last year. -
2024 International Signings
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to AlwaysinModeration's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If we spent 1.5 million on Beltre how much did we spend on De Los Santos of $6.52 million budget? -
2024 International Signings
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to AlwaysinModeration's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
So we went for quality over quantity this time. These kids are the essence of lottery picks. You hit on them though and doing very well. Braves have effectively built their team from the international side of things. -
I do want to mention, just because a team is willing to trade a player doesn't necessarily mean they don't value the player like Arraez from last year. It means they think they can more easily replicate their value through another player.
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Marlins already willing to move on from Arraez. 1 they think they can get something for him, 2) they gave up a lot to get him, for him to have a career year and then just willing to trade him back out. I know the regimes changed and he is effectively one of their best trade chips, but I have said before and will continue to say we really got the better end of the deal on that one. I would take Arraez back for 2 years though 😁. Curious what the cost would be. I would do a Polanco and ERod (26.5) for Arraez (30.2) straight up. Arraez can play 2nd, 1st and DH. Same with Julien.
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The thing is I expect Kepler to have a good season not a magical season. As I stated to start this thread, I think people greatly underestimate how much teams value a player like Kepler. Teoscar, even though has more offensive output is similar to Kepler maybe a step below on a WAR basis. Look, it all comes down to how he performs, I just was responding to your statement that Teoscar was an overpay (when the market paid him that) or that Kepler has to have a magical season to consider a QO. Kepler just needs to continue to play defensively well and perform closer to his 2nd half numbers than his first and I think he is a virtual lock. That isn't pie in the sky, even though you and Mike may think that. When you have a pretty good equivalency in Teoscar, I think its fallacy to say it doesn't compare. If not if we think he will sign for 4 for $60 million and he will be closer to a 3 to 4 WAR player every year you do that in a heartbeat.
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MAT performed ok with the bat last year, and with his defense, was a positive player for the Twins. MAT is worth around $8-10 million especially if he can perform the same way next year. Taylor has been a very productive outfielder for the last 3 years. He got a raw deal by becoming a free agent in 2021 with the depressed rates from Covid when he signed his 2 year 9 million contract after a 1 year 1.7 million contract in 2020.
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There is no overpay, there is only the market rate, and that was $23.5 million that is worth around $20 million on a 1 year deal. For a player that was supposed to get a 4 year 60-70 million deal it is fair to both sides. Higher for a 1 year deal, but no risk on the downside for future years. It shows a solid player that produces around a 2 WAR per a year is worth around $20 million on a 1 year deal 😁.
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We also have Winder who i haven't given up on quite yet.
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LOL there is a comma there. I am talking about a Dallas Keuchel in 2023 or an Aaron Sanchez in 2022 or a AAAA pitcher that signs with us in AAA that we are going to try to tweak and give them a chance. Dallas Keuchel I think will really help us in this department. I think that went really well last year. He held his end of the bargain and our team gave him the opportunity at the big league level he wanted and he gave us some good starts early. He gave us 37 innings and helped get us 2 wins. If we end up with 40 innings from this type of player it gives 100 for prospects who definitely are not journeyman starters LOL.
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Lopez - 160+ Ryan 160 Varland if a starter- 140 Ober- 130 Paddack- 130 Assuming we don't trade for another starter. That leaves around 140 other innings, for journeyman starters in AAA, Festa, Canterino, SWR ect. With all the Relievers I am beginning to believe we will go with Varland as a starter and a big trade may not be on the horizon as I expected earlier in the offseason. Could still see something happen in the next month.
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Correct on all fronts. We either need very good trade compensation for Kepler, or hope he has a good season that allows us to use a QO, he rejects and signs for north of $50 million. As this thread shows though, Kepler is a complicated player that has very different views on his value to a team. You have myself who thinks he has immense value while others think he is significantly less. A lot will come down to his offensive performance and whether he can duplicate his 2nd half.
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Giving a Qualifying offer doesn't mean the Twins will be spending $20 to $25 million on kepler. The strategy would be that you would get another late 1st round draft pick like we did with Sonny Gray.
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To be fair I picked 8 of the 24 batters that have signed so far. I ignored Ohtani and Lee, and a bunch of players that signed below 8 million dollars. I think I covered over 70% of the players remaining. If you disagree with my stance fine, but so far between steamer values and contracts signed it has been pretty spot on with my thesis. Honestly there are only about 15 more batters that will sign for more than $10 million a year that I will be trying to keep track of. We act like there is a massive amount of players that command premium contracts. Kepler has had a 2 WAR every year other than 2020. That is insane consistency. If he finds more consistency with his bat like he did last summer and fall, he is a top 20 outfielder that will command a very strong contract.
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Anyone want to hear my opinions on Kepler LOL?
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Cody Bellinger I think will be a pretty good comp for Kepler. Both are expected to be 2.3 to 2.4 WARS for Steamer next year. Now he will be 3 years younger. Spotrac has him at a 5 year 112 million contract. I believe he is looking for a contract north of $200 million. Personally I think Kepler has a 4 WAR year and will get a 3 year contract in the 60-80 million area. But for now going to leave it at that. On the kepler QO most fans are pretty steadfast on their views of him and his potential value in a contract situation.
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I don't believe I am. I have shown 8-10 contracts of batters signed this year and it is all matching up pretty well so far.
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Conforto signed a 2 year $36 million contract last year. He has has a significantly lower WAR than Kepler most years. Joc Pederson accepted the QO after a 1.4 WAR season. He had a .6 WAR last year and has a steamer of 1.6 WAR for 2024. He is expected to sign a 2 year $32 million dollar contract. I just don't see many examples of players getting significantly lower contracts than $10 million/expected WAR.
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Chpettit without putting words in his mouth has basically stated if he has a decent year at the plate with his continued good defensive outing would get the Qualifying offer. If he has a 3 WAR or higher I think he is a shoe in for a Qualifying offer. I think it gets more dicey in the 2 WAR range.
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Ok, if you want an odd one, lets look at Harrison Bader. Signed a 1 year $10.5 million contract. He has a steamer of 1.6 WAR for 2024 and spotract expected him to sign a 4 year 60 million dollar contract. I know there is some injury concern there, but that is currently your best argument at a defensive outfielder getting less than $10 million per a war. Heywards supports my claim, and then you have Michael Taylor still sitting out there if you want to ignore Bellinger because he has too good of a bat.
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1 WAR and less players it gets a little wonky. However I have thrown out every contract this year signed for 1 WAR and higher players and other than Garver who may have signed a discount, the valuations are right around $10 million/WAR.
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What I have an issue is everything shows contracts are going for around $10 million per a WAR. So if you expect him to get a 2.4 WAR next year, how is he not worth around $24 million? I am a CPA and numbers guy. This is simple math. 2.4 times 10. And if you don't think a defensive corner outfielder is worth that, show me something that disputes the valuation when the best comparison right now is Teoscar Hernandez who signed for a little more than $10 million dollars for his expected WAR for 2024. Kiermaiers steamer value for WAR in 2024 is you guessed 1.2 WAR for 2024. What did he sign for $10.5 million. Heywards Steamer valuations for 2024 is .9 WAR and he signed for 9 million dollars. I never ignored your point on Heyward, what I stated is he got a contract for what he is valued at in 2024 which is 9 million. Your argument is not supported by the numbers. Fangraphs seems fairly close to their valuation on players and how teams view them.
