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Cap'n Piranha

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Cap'n Piranha last won the day on May 19

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About Cap'n Piranha

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  1. The Twins would be overjoyed to sign Rogers for 3/$20M. If that's truly what Rogers wants, he would be signed right now. That deal is essentially saying (assuming a $7.5M arb salary in 2022) that Rogers doesn't think he'll get a two year, $12.5M deal prior to the 2023 season. Since 2018, Rogers is 4th in WAR, 19th in ERA, 7th in FIP, 6th in xFIP, and 13th in k%-bb%, all while being 32nd highest in babip (meaning despite relatively bad batted ball luck, Rogers remains elite). I'm sure he won't get 3/$54M, but if we think Rogers will sign for less than 70% of the AAV of Andrelton Simmons, yo
  2. I'll give you 10 good reasons the Twins might not compete for a playoff spot in 2022. Starting pitchers 3-5 and bullpen pitchers 2-8.
  3. It's perfectly valid to call out Arraez in this situation. It's not that he's never allowed to strikeout--it's that he failed to protect the plate on a two strike count, and so let the umpire take the bat out of his hands. In that situation, if you aren't 100% sure a pitch will be a ball, you need to foul it off. Arraez' PA came across as a guy hoping not to make an out, rather than a guy hoping to get a hit. Championship players live for that opportunity, and the past few games, Arraez has been coming through in those situations. Because of that, I'm not calling Arraez unclutch or an
  4. Am I the only one confused by Rocco's pinch hitting today? Sending Donaldson in with 2 outs and a runner on first in the 7th? I feel he would have been better served being kept available for a juicier opportunity in the 8th or 9th. Even more baffling is letting Simmons hit in the 8th, but then pinch hitting the very next at bat for Gordon. I think I would rather have Arraez and Gordon bat, and not Simmons and Arraez.
  5. I think that actually might offend him. Before 2020, Ryu got 4 and $80M, as a soon to be 33 year old, who had only made 30+ starts in a season once (in 2013). Berrios, when he hits free agency, will be four years younger, with a far better track record for durability, and FIP and xFIP that are not that far off of Ryu. Until he's actually in free agency, I think Berrios says no to any offer of $100M unless it's for 4 years or less. Like I've said before, it's not what the market will actually end up paying him that you're working against, you're working against what Berrios thinks the market
  6. Bro, it's not a swing, it's part of the whole picture. Expected performance and financial constraints are connected; if I asked you to pick which team would have a better record, but the only details I gave you about the teams was that one had a payroll of $100M, and the other had a payroll of $200M, which would you bet on? You can't just stick your fingers in your ears and pretend finances didn't play a role in the signing of Happ and Shoemaker. The Twins did not have the ability to spend better without spending more--in this case, those are the same thing. Are some of the other potential
  7. The Sox definitely got benefits, I just think it's pretty awesome to get $2m a year from an employer for multiple years, even when they haven't been your employer for almost 2 decades. To your point, I have to wonder if the Angels have thought about doing this with some of the albatrosses on their payroll, or even with Trout. I assume they have, but perhaps they haven't been creative enough?
  8. Depending on the parameters, deferred money can actually work pretty well for both sides. The team gets cash freed up they can use to avoid the luxury tax/sign another player/invest towards future payrolls. The player extends their cash flow further into the future, and if they get enough money added on in the future, could come out better as well (A million today is better than a million 5 years from now, but there's a decent chance that $300k a year over 6 years is better than a million today).
  9. This is what the Twins are up against right now. There are only two reasons for a player to sign a long-term contract before their initial foray into free agency. They're in the high minors, and signing an MLB deal immediately starts their service time clock, and ensures they never have to deal with arbitration or minimum salaries It's a hedge against injury/performance decline/non-materialization Point 1 obviously doesn't apply to Berrios, and point 2 appears not to either, as Berrios seems completely confident that he will remain a 2ish type pitcher (maybe a 1 in his/his
  10. We have a very good core of players, but need to make drastic changes to avoid being one of the 5 worst teams in baseball? I posit that if you have a very good core of players, you will not be a 100 loss team, and if you are a 100 loss team, you don't have a very good core of players.
  11. According to Spotrac, indeed they are $8M in deferred salary. In even funnier deferred salary arrangements, the Red Sox are paying Dustin Pedrioa and MANNY RAMIREZ $2M+ a year through 2028 and 2026, respectively. That means the Red Sox won't have Manny off their books until 18 years after he stopped playing for them. It's the best deal ever (in a world where Bobby Bonilla doesn't exist).
  12. I wasn't shifting the focus, I was calling out the absurtdity of you insisting we not look at moves in a vaccum, while completely ignoring the financial realities of the teams. Regardless of why they didn't have much money for new starters this year, they didn't have the money, and it's because they went all in for 2020. Is it therefore safe to say you would be against the Twins paying big money for a single player in the future, so they can keep payroll space open for mid-rotation starters in subsequent years? The Twins were indeed 11th in payroll in 2010, and 9th in 2011--maybe that was b
  13. It's all well and good to say we don't want a rebuild, but I'm pretty sure one is coming. The Twins have at most 5 pitchers that can be counted on to be full year contributors next year (Maeda, Berrios, Ober, Rogers, and Duffey). With a 13 man staff, where you need at least 5-6 solid options in the bullpen, that means the Twins need to find at least 5-6 arms this offseason; if any of the above get injured, or regress (can't be counted out, especially for Ober and Duffey), that number goes up. We can hope that Duran, Winder, Balazovic, and a couple of relievers can make the jump from the min
  14. This seems to contradict your claim in the immediately preceding post, where you opined that you can't imagine him wanting more than $20M AAV. Berrios is right around the 20th best starter in baseball over the past 3 years at almost any metric you look at (he appears anywhere from 17th to 25th on almost everything one would consider important for a starter; ERA, FIP, xFIP, k/9, bb/9, hard hit rate, swinging strike rate). That seems like something any number of teams would be interested in, particularly given the durability he's shown, and if more than one team wants him, the bidding war ensu
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