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Cap'n Piranha

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Cap'n Piranha last won the day on May 19 2021

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About Cap'n Piranha

  • Birthday 04/06/1983

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  1. Arraez should never play 2B again. His knees just cannot hold up at any position other than 1B, and his bat is way too valuable to sacrifice. If Polanco is moved, it needs to be because that was the price to afford Correa and/or Rodon, with Lewis, Julien, Martin, and Lee battling to handle one or both of those slots.
  2. If clearing Polanco's contract is the difference between signing/not signing Correa and/or Rodon, then yes, by all means move him (throw Kepler in while you're at it). If not, keep him around for at least one more year, and reassess both Polanco's and the team's performance at both the trade deadline and next offseason. The team can move on from Polanco after 2024 for only a $1M buyout, so even if he takes another step back this year, there are worse things than a 1 year, $10.5M 2B/DH.
  3. I'm not so sure that Correa agrees to the proposed creative contract, unless I'm understanding it wrong. Is the gist that even if the Twins pick up the extra 5 years for $125M, Correa can still opt out after the very next season? If so, in what world do the Twins opt for a 5yr $125M contract which runs from 2027-2031, but a non-injured Correa does not immediately opt out after the 2026 season? Keep in mind that 5 years from $25M a year will be borderline second starter money, not future HOF at the tail of their prime money. If the Twins exercising that 5 year option negates any opt out for Correa, Correa is essentially maxing out at 9/$300, with a real risk of "only" realizing 4/$175M. As others have pointed out, Correa is going to want to maximize his earnings, so he's going to want a very clear path to $300M minimum, and this contract creates a real risk to that happening if he gets injured or declines in the next 3 years.
  4. As we tick off the last few meaningless games of the 2022 season, attention turns to 2023. With a little bit of Falvinelli self-reflection, I think a very successful 2023 is well within the realm of possibility. Here are 6 reasons why. The starting rotation should (hopefully) be at worst solid, if not a strength. With Gray and Ryan returning, the Twins have 2 starters with sub 4 ERAs--while advanced stats are a little more cautious, both are still seen as solid options. Add in the expected return of Maeda, who when last healthy pitched like a borderline ace, reasonable progression from Varland, Winder, and Ober, the potential emergence of SWR, and a potential return from injury for Mahle and Paddack, and the Twins have 9 options who profile as legitimate MLB starters. That is more depth than the Twins have had in the rotation in a long time; are there still questions, particularly around health? Absolutely. But there is also hope. The starting lineup should (hopefully) be filled with above average hitters from just about top to bottom. Jeffers at C, Kiriloff at 1B, Polanco at 2B, Lewis at SS, Miranda at 3B, Buxton at CF, Wallner/Larnach at the corners, and Arraez at DH; that's a very solid lineup that should be able to put up some runs. Add in Gordon as depth, and the top 10 for the Twins, on paper, looks like a first division outfit. Everyone will need to stay healthy, which is a very big ask, but if that happens, the Twins should score runs in bunches. The bullpen has (hopefully) a very solid foundation. Duran is all-world; 1st in velo, 13th in ERA, 3rd in xFIP. Theilbar and Jax have been very solid contributors, and Alcala should hopefully be back, bringing yet more velo to the pen, Moran has shown some flashes, and if he can get the walks under control, he'll be a real weapon. Lopez is unfortunately a major question mark, and potential liability, but there is reason to hope that the Twins already have 4-5 solid options in the pen, 3 of whom have average velo above 95. That's the best talent base for a pen the Twins have had in quite some time. Falvine should (hopefully) avoid some of the bad decisions that have plagued the last 2 seasons. For two years in a row, Falvine have acquired a bullpen arm, installed that arm as closer, and watched said pitcher absolutely torpedo the season. If they didn't know before, they should know now; the bullpen cannot be allowed to sink the season through lack of options, especially if starters are going to be inning restricted. I think Falvey and Levine are both intelligent, and if they're humble enough to admit mistakes, I have every confidence they will avoid repeating them. The injury luck should (hopefully) be better. I mean, it can't be worse, right? Right? The payroll should (hopefully) allow the Twins to make one, or maybe even two big moves in FA. According to Spotrac, the Twins have $118M on the books for next year; however, that includes Correa, Bundy, Archer, and Sano. If none of those players return, that $118M drops precipitously, to $48M; if the Twins are also able to move Kepler's contract, that drops below $40M. Between arb raises and rookie-scale deals, the Twins should easily be able to keep the payroll below $100M (this all changes if Correa opts in, of course). That's plenty of room to make a big move.
  5. I yearn for an alternate universe where the FO signed one of Gausman, Ray, or Rodon in FA, and therefore didn't need to trade for either Paddack OR Mahle. A Twins team with one of those 3 in the rotation, plus Rogers instead of Pagan in the bullpen might very well be headed to the playoffs; the resulting increase in fan interest along with added revenue from postseason games would pay for a sizable chunk of that salary. When Falvinelli does their post-mortem of this season, I hope that fact stands out; refusal to invest money led directly to the need to part with talent multiple times, while also directly impacting the financial topline negatively.
  6. I think Falvinelli are in complete and total lock step, which is why I put the pen more on Falvine than Baldelli. All 3 of them think they have cracked a code by limiting starters to 4-6 innings depending on when the order turns over for the second time. The thing is, they’re right. The stats are undeniable. However; there was never a plan to address bulking up the bullpen to pitch 486-810 innings, which is why the Twins have generally rolled out 8 guys who more or less only pitch one inning, and need a day off after pitching in order to stay highly effective. Combine that with Baldelli’s penchant to use all his best bullpen options anytime the game’s margin is 3 or less, and you have a recipe to blow out your bullpen constantly. If the FO wants to continue their “5-and-fly” strategy, they MUST dedicate a significant amount of resources to the pen this offseason. Theilbar and Jax need to be your 5th and 6th option at best, and you need at least 2 guys that can handle 3-4 innings every third day. If they can’t get that done, and they still refuse to get more innings from starters, then Falvine should be told they’ll need to start paying for tickets to Twins games (because they were fired).
  7. I would phrase it as the car didn’t break down, but nor did it turn on. At no point this year have the Twins looked like a team that was going to make any other team nervous in a playoff series.
  8. The utter failure of the FO, knowing full well they would need 3-5 innings from the pen every day, to devote anything close to requisite resources to the bullpen.
  9. And now Arraez is out. Whoever is running the departments that address injury prevention and recovery for the Twins needs to be let go this offseason.
  10. Randy Dobnak is hardly the anchor weighing down the good ship Twinkes.
  11. BSN may want to re-think the home plate mics for tonight's game, at least until Greinke is out. I've counted at least 2 very audible instances of, shall we say, fruity language.
  12. The thing everyone forgets about Nick Punto is that he was actually a pretty good player who was imply asked to do more than he was capable of. He put up 3.6 WAR in 2006, and 2.7 in 2008; he finished his career with over 15 WAR (coming into this season, Buxton had 15 WAR exactly). If Punto had been allowed to bat 8th or 9th, and not 2nd in front of Mauer and Morneau, he'd be remembered very differently; as a spectacular defensive 3B with a pretty good OBP for a bottom of the order hitter.
  13. Leaving aside the debate on whether RBI is a valid statistic, but I never understood why a hitter doesn't get an RBI when grounding into a double play. He still put a ball in play that allowed the runner to score. Pretty clearly should be an RBI, IMO.
  14. As unlikely as making the playoffs are, I have to wonder why we would even want to. We’d either get the Rays and their all-around competence, the imposing lineup of the Blue Jays, or the Mariners who will trot out Castillo, Ray, and Gilbert. Any ways you cut out, no way this team takes 2 of 3 against any of those teams. Now is the time to see who can be helpful for next year. Archer should be shut down for the year, Bundy should be released, Pagan DFA’d, etc. Bring up SWR and Wallet at minimum, and then anyone else with a pulse across the river.
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