Cap'n Piranha
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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha
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Fair points. I think where I'm at is the thing I want most is to know without a shadow of a doubt come January 2027 if JJM should have his 5th year option picked up. If the answer is no, then heaven and earth must be moved in the 2027 draft to get a legitimate QB. If yes, then great! To that end, I think 2026 is the year that KOC needs to put his ego fully aside, and realize that he can either run his preferred offense, or maximize the offense's potential, but he can't do both. Accordingly, I want to eliminate any possible reason why JJM can be sub-par in 2026, and yet be on the roster for 2027. And if that means he gets a TE (which he relied on heavily while at Michigan) then so be it. I would be surprised if the Vikings did it, I guess I'm just saying were I KOC, I would. As for Price, a quick google shows an achilles re-tears in only 2-5% of cases, so that seems like a pretty low risk. Price did not catch the ball much at ND, but when he did he averaged 10.8 yards per catch and scored TDs 20% of the time. I would much prefer to have Love over Price, but I don't think Love will be available at 18, nor would I be super enthusiastic about taking a RB that high, knowing that KOC is unlikely to use him enough to warrant that level of pick.
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New mock out from Matt Miller at ESPN. He has the Vikings with Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo at 18 and Lee Hunter, DT, Texas Tech at 49. While I don't completely hate that, I do disagree with it. Flores has shown he can coordinate a playoff-caliber unit; KOC has not. Further consider that next year needs to be the year in which we learn if JJM can be a quality QB (and if he's not, the team is starting over at QB in 2027 anyways), and to me it becomes clear that the priority is improving the offense. To that end, I would take either Ioane, G, Penn St. (assuming Mauigoa will be long gone at 18) or Sadiq, TE, Oregon. Ioane gave up 2 pressures and no sacks in 11 games last year, and according to reports is good in both the run and pass game; he could back up Jackson/Fries or with no dead money on Fries' deal after this season, it would be easy to find a taker in a trade for him. Sadiq is considered the best TE in the class, and would give JJM another target. In round 2, I would go with Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame or Logan Jones, C, Iowa. Price only got 280 carries across 3 years at ND because he was sharing time with Love, but he still put up 1700 yards (6.0 average) and 21 TDS. He's fast (also returned 3 kickoffs for TDs) but physical at 210 lbs. Jones was mocked to the Niners and touted as a Day 1 starter; if you can get a lineman and a playmaker for JJM in the first 2 rounds, I think that's the way to go.
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NFL Playoffs/Early Offseason
Cap'n Piranha replied to TheLeviathan's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
Or we should all understand that the Pro Bowl stopped being relevant 20 years ago (if not before), and just kill the thing all together. Have the All-Pro teams and be done with it. -
To be accurate, 4 of those 7 wins in 2023 were with Cousins. KOC went 17-8 (17-9 with playoffs) with Cousins and 14-3 (14-4) with Darnold. So 31-11 (31-13) with those two, 11-15 without. That tells me that KOC is not actually that good at developing QBs; he needs a veteran that's been in the league for a few years. That's not a bad thing per se, other than when the strategy becomes "draft a 21 year old and hand him the keys to your slow-developing downfield passing scheme", even though the QB you choose didn't do that in college. That is where the issue here is; KOC either grossly misjudged JJMs ability to run his offense, or he just didn't care. Either way, not a guy I want having total control over the on-field decisions my team makes. Like I said before, if KOC is willing to humble himself and make wholesale changes, I'm on board to keep him. But my guess is that if KOC ever does become a successful HC, it's because the Vikes fire him, and he's forced to get self-reflective.
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KAM is supposed to be an analytics guy--if that's the case, I wonder if the issue is that the analytical data is just not as good when it comes to evaluating college talent. It makes some sense to me that just because a player has good analytics in college doesn't necessarily mean that would translate to the NFL. However, the analytics on players in the NFL probably are much better at determining that player's likelihood to play well in the NFL. In that case, it makes a certain amount of sense that a KAM-led FO would do well in FA, but struggle in the draft (unless you believe the smoke that all the defensive FAs were straight Flores recommendations). As such, I would think the best fit for KAM would be to take a director of pro personnel type role, where he focuses much more on pro players, and very little on the draft. Should he get another GM role, he should probably mostly delegate the draft process.
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This is why I feel like KOC should be next out the door. He's an offense first guy who has yet to put a consistently good offense on the field in 4 years; I feel like it's poor to bad slightly more often than it is good to great. If the Vikings have even a decent offense this year, they go maybe 11-6 or 12-5? All of the sudden the narrative could change quite a bit. However, when your offense-first coach produces a bad offense despite every starter on offense (other than Nailor) being a 1st/2nd round pick or on an 8 figure AAV deal (or both), then it's clear to me that the problem is the coach, not the talent. Add to the complete cluster that was JJM's season, and it reads to me like KOC just isn't good enough to put together a competent offense right now. If it's me, I tell KOC that he can entirely shake up his staff and cede a bunch of control over the offense, or he can clean out his office. If he chooses the latter, I promote Flores and go look for an up-and-coming offensive mind that can clearly articulate how to get JJM to improve. In fact, I make a big part of the interview a session where I watch him coach JJM for a couple hours, on the field and in the film room.
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If two playoff appearances and zero wins (and I'd add, no playoff games where the team looked even halfway competent) is a high bar of success for you, then you need to aspire to greater things my man. The window that includes 2017-2019 is clearly better (2 appearances, but 2 wins, and a CCG). So is 1997-2000 (within your 30 year range) at 4 appearances and 4 wins. If you're point is that the Vikings have been consistently inconsistent at being successful for the last 25-30 years, I'll agree with you heartily. But the KAM era is a continuation, not a departure, from that reality.
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He traded for the extra first (which by draft charts was an overpay) WITHOUT having any idea if it was enough to get into the Top 3--sheer lunacy. The teams may well have rejected trades because they thought KAM was too leveraged at that point by getting another first without an endgame, and thought they could get more. Pretty much every GM for the last 20 years knows full well going into it that if they have to make a QB decision, and they choose wrong, they'll be out. KAM is no different in that regard, and the next GM will know that well, even without this example.
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NFL Playoffs/Early Offseason
Cap'n Piranha replied to TheLeviathan's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
This of course assumes that nothing changes if the QBs are in swapped places. I think Payton (much as I dislike him) is quite good at developing QBs. KOC? Not so much it would seem. -
Yup, and you didn't even mention Carr from ND who could very easily win the Heisman next year (not saying he will, but on a loaded ND team that has a floor of 10-2, it will be a surprise if he's not on the short list to go to NY). Getting the guaranteed $50 by being a top 3 pick is certainly worth it, but if I can't be QB 1-3, I'm pretty sure I'd rather go to a better situation in the mid to late first round then to someone at 7 or 8.
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What will be really interesting to see going forward is how much QBs actually want to get drafted in the top 10 going forward. A top QB in college will now almost certainly make a parity to 1st round QBs still on their rookie deal; it won't be too long before QBs making $10M+ in 2 years is standard. When you can make that level of money, all of the sudden landing in a settled situation becomes a bigger factor than simply getting the most money possible on a rookie deal by getting picked as high as possible. Based on the slot values, getting picked in the top 3 is still a sizable difference (all 3 are guaranteed double what a pick from 11 onwards is), but if you're not absolutely sure, it probably makes more sense to go to a better situation and play for the second contract. For example, would you rather be drafted 6th by Cleveland and receive $40M guaranteed? Or go 13th to the Rams, and "only" get $24M guaranteed, but get to be the heir apparent to Stafford and be tutored by a quality QB developer in a system with lots of weapons?
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NFL Playoffs/Early Offseason
Cap'n Piranha replied to TheLeviathan's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
You would hope it wouldn't mirror the Twins' situation post 2019. Rowson left to become the bench coach (Miami I think?), because Shelton was still the Twins bench coach. After Rowson left, Shelton got the Pirates gig, so the Twins go to keep neither, even though had the order of leaving been reversed, they probably would've kept Rowson. All that to say, I'd rather lose Jones than Flores, but if Jones leaves first, I'll be very nervous about Flores right up until every HC slot is filled. -
For a little bit of fun, I thought I would throw out a series of hypotheticals throughout the offseason, just for kicks! First up; you get to have a 10 year career in the NFL. Would you rather it be as... An All-Pro level placekicker A Pro-Bowl level right guard A League Average 3rd receiver Discuss!
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They ain't called Choke-lahoma for nothing. A defense-driven team losing by 10 after leading by 17 is embarassing.
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That's why it should be expanded--Ole Miss against ND and Oregon against BYU is much, much better. If you're not going to expand, you at least need to give up the farce of including conference champions based on no other metric, or at least require a conference champion to rank in the CFP top 20 or something like that.
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Not for nothing, but pretty much every metric had ND as a top 5-7 team by the end of the year. They struggled badly on defense the first 2.5 games with a new coordinator, but rounded into form pretty quickly after that. It just so happened that their two toughest opponents were their first two games. As for why lower teams should field teams, in the current iteration of college football, they probably shouldn't. The CFP appearance is nice and all, but even if the entry requirements stayed the same, I doubt either gets back again any time soon. Is getting blown out in a road game once every 15-20 years really a good prize for those small teams? The only thing that could actually save college football right now is some kind of commissioner that is empowered to actually enforce rules, including a death penalty. Pair that with two 64 team divisions that feature promotion and relegation (maybe not every year, but every 2-3), along with some semblance of revenue share, and you're in business.
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This pretty much sums up why I'm ready to move on from KOC, pretty much whenever. Certainly seems like stubbornness/ego completely tanked a season in which the Vikings could have been competitive. What's ironic is that, from solely a football philosophy viewpoint, Zimmer would have been a great coach for this team. Run the ball, don't ask your QB to do much more than protect the ball and move the chains, and lean on the defense.
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Spotrac says Burrow has a full no trade clause, so he's going nowhere unless it's somewhere he wants to be. I would think the Rams might be a top suitor--Burrow would have a real shot at Superbowls, and the Rams have the Falcons 1st rounder this year, so they have some nice assets.
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Burrow is obviously far more talented than JJM, but has one of the same issues as well--durability. At least with JJM it only costs you $4M if your starting QB is out. From an affordability standpoint, the Vikings could get there through releases and restructures, but it leaves nothing left for any other improvements to the roster outside of the draft. It feels like that's taking one final big swing at a Superbowl in 2026, and then entering purgatory for the rest of the contract. All that to say, I'm curious to see what would happen with it, but I think the more prudent course is to put everything on JJM next year, and make him prove it. If he can't draft one of the QBs coming out in 2027; for once, do whatever it takes to get the one you want, and for the love of all that's good, draft some lineman to protect him.
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*as soon as he gets to 1k yards on the season. There's HOF and all-time records to keep in mind (I'm sure Jefferson does).
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KAM has not, based entirely on his draft record, and I'll prove it to you, using your own logic. Let's use your hit/non-hit criteria (widely debunked by Leviathan and myself, but let's go with it). In his 4 drafts, using the most generous interpretation of hit, KAM has had 11 hits (Ingram, Nailor, Addison, Blackmon, JJM, Turner, Reichard, Jurgens, LDR, Jackson, TID). In his last 4 drafts, Spielman had 17 (O'Neill, Conklin, Carlson, Bradbury, Mattison, Watts, Epps, Boyd, Udoh, Jefferson, Cleveland, Wonnum, Osborn, Brandel, Metellus, Darrisaw, and Bynum). So. You can either admit that KAM has been a terrible drafter (and since the only way to build a consistent contender is by drafting at least competently, and in reality, well), or you can admit that the Vikings never should have fired Spielman, since he's clearly a superior drafter than KAM. Your choice.
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He's owned the Wild for 17 years, and has been out of the first round twice, and both times immediately lost in the next round. Better than the Twins for the past 17 years sure, but not exactly championship caliber.
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Especially if Moore returns to Oregon, as has been discussed. 2027 on the other hand--Sayin, Carr, Manning, Moore, and Maiava might all be top 10 picks. It's basically the 2024 draft all over again.
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I am a huge ND guy, and to paraphrase Terry Jeffords from Brooklyn 99, Cap'n Piranha loves Love. That said, all I care about this offseason is making the OL better, so if Mauigoa from Miami is there (as he is in this mock) I run to the podium to take him. I'd rather get him, and then target Price (the other RB from ND, who falls to at least the 3rd round in this mock). I'm intrigued by Maiava the QB from USC as well--he would seem to be a much better fit for KOC's system than JJM, I would think.
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This is one of the best things ever, and a great fantasy football team name to boot.
