Hawkeye Bean Counter

Just wanted to do a quick compare to last years see what we think we have in value in this draft 1. Jenkins vs Lee - Jenkins has the slightly higher ceiling but both are very good prospects - pretty even 2. Soto vs Prielipp - Soto has the much higher ceiling and less injury risk, heavily favors Soto, I still like Prielipp. 3. Keaschall vs Schobel - almost mere images of each other. Wash 4. Winokur vs lost pick - Winokur is high ceiling draft pick, 2023 win. This is where we start to get some real separation 5. Hall vs Morris . Hall is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling than Morris. Really like the Hall pick - favors 2023 6. Questad vs Ross - This heavily leans towards Questad. you have high potential and even a better floor than Ross. Real chance on hitting something here 7. Harry vs Ortega - Harry has good makeup - but Ortega has continued to show good pop so far, first time I go with 2022. 8. Santos vs Jones - I am not high on either. If one were to flash most likely Santos but a wash. 9. Stoffal vs Matthews - I think ultimately both have some talent. I think Stoffal maybe slightly higher but willing to give this a wash. 10. Dougherty vs lewis - a bit of hindsight here, but Lewis looked like had some tools to be effective pitcher. I take Lewis even without his season performance, easily ahead here with the performance. 11. Dunn vs Shuffield - lets just ignore shuffield and look at Dunn vs Lewis. Honestly this is very close even knowing what Lewis has done. You have a lefty in Dunn that has 3 very good pitches. You have the chance at a #3 ceiling pitcher possibly higher. I slightly lean towards Dunn between the two but its close. What it shows is much higher ceilings but overall just better quality throughout (it helps having an extra pick). You have 3 potential elite players in 2023 Jenkins, Soto and Winokur vs Lee. I think Priellip has the potential to get back in this group but need to wait on the health. Keaschall and Schobel both look like excellent ball players - safe picks likely good outcomes for both. For pitching - Hall, Questad and Stoffal and Dunn all have the tools to be good pitchers. Mathews and Lewis appear to be the best picks for pitching on day 2 last year and we my have a gem in Lewis. However the quantity and quality of pitching for yesterday heavily leans to 2023. The one caveat is Ortega, I liked him when he was picked and he has continued to do well this year. For the hitters drafted later, I think he has the best chance of continuing to improve and move up in the organization.

I still think its a good pick. He just needs to come back healthy next year. If not injuries may just derail his potential.

I very much believe the Twins got sniped in the 3rd round with Arizona picking Hurley 2 picks before their pick. With that being said I will be curious how Winokur does. He has a compact swing so should have better contact. On second note I feel this draft is deeper on the pitching side than the last couple of years. Here is my take. 3. Winokur- has a fairly high ceiling. He is a strong athlete, compact clean swing, will likely move up well throughout the organization. Then we will see if he stalls out in AAA like some of our previous slugger picks or can punch through. 4. Tanner Hall - honestly I think this is the safest pick of the draft that will make it to the big leagues in some capacity. He is already a heck of a pitcher with solid deception, his fastball is just a little on the low side. If the coaches can find 4-5 more miles per an hour he is potentially a #2 or #3 type pitcher. As stated before, Cleveland was also very interested in him. 5. Questad- already has good velocity, will just need to refine his pitches some more. High upside, and with our coaching in A and A+ ball I feel this is a really good gamble. Again I feel like the potential of a #2 #3 type pitcher. 6. Harry - I like the player I like the quiet hands, I just think he is likely fairly maxed out, I hope not. He appears to be a high effort player. I don't see the upside of someone like Ortega taking the previous year. 7. Santos - I am thinking he is a senior sign. Good strikeout numbers, not great competition, but I think is something the Twins can work with. 8. Stoffal- only and 8 SO/9 - but prior to his injury was pitching lights out for the Ducks and against strong competition prior to his injury. He seems like a Hall-light type of pick that the Twins can improve mechanics a bit and have a strong starter, just doesn't have as much games under his belt. 9. Dougherty- A previous 12 and 13 SO/9 prior to this year. Has some strike out ability but struggled as pitcher this year. Honestly I have the least amount of confidence in this and the Santos pick. I will be curious to see how much both sign for and whether in matches where I think these 2 are in the pecking order. 10. Dunn - a left handed pitcher with 3 very strong pitches, but lacking some command. This is a high upside pick and likely one the Twins save some money for. Between Hall, Questad, Stoffal and Dunn - I think the Twins picked 4 very strong arms that have pretty good odds at doing well in the organization. Not all of them will hit, but I could see 2-3 hit with Hall Questad and Dunn all having pretty high ceilings. Dougherty and Santos are both a wait and see situation. They could surprise but right now I don't have quite as much confidence in. For the bats on day 2 it begins and end with Winokur for me (no offense to Harry). He has the athletic ability, size and compact swing with power that has the possibility of being a decent major league player to possible an all star. As to day 3 I am cautiously optimistic. Yes the Twins have found diamonds in the rough in these rounds, but two, I do think this draft is about 100 prospects deeper due to the truncated 2020 draft and just a tad deeper class overall. What does that mean? I am hoping for a draft similar to 2019 where they are finding solid prospects throughout the day. I don't expect to have a top 4-5 rounder get picked in the 18th round like Julien, but I do expect a strong day. I think it will be more of split on hitting and pitching. I fully expect 2 catchers to be picked based on their previous draft strategies, likely another infielder and outfielder and possibly find another HS player willing to take a chance on the MLB similar to Omari Daniel. I won't be paying attention to each pick like yesterday, but will be curious to see what they end up with.

Honestly I think it is 2 things working together. 1. The front office has had the scouts focus on a few particular traits, a high K/9 ratio, and having at least 1 elite pitch. 2. The pitching coaching in A and A+ ball I think is very very strong. They are giving these players a strong base to possibly succeed in the higher levels. Often increasing their velocity and tweaking a couple of their pitches. The coaching and scouts and ultimately the front office is very in sync with their philosophy on drafting pitchers.

Twins end with a draft special in the 10th - Ross Dunn 140th ranked prospect Left handed pitcher. Had a 14.9 k/9 in 2022, 11 in 2023. Need to find more on him. Additional info, has 3 solid pitches across the board, appears to be primarily command issues. Will see if the Twins can help him. I think the Twins have a good shot at finding a quality arm in these last 5 draft picks. Will see if 1 or more can excel with the Twins tutelage.

Yes I am also really like this draft. Just to further drive home my point lets look at the rest of the Twins organizational depth at Catcher. Alex Isola -29th, Winkel 9th, Tatum 20th round, Schmidt 33rd, Baez 11th. I am not saying the Twins have great depth at the catcher position. However, I would say catching is the 1 position the Twins have continually punted, and continued to find solid organizational pieces throughout the draft. Then you thrown on Cossetti and Williams who have a chance to be more than an organizational piece with Williams knocking on the door of the big leagues. I will state the depth at the catching position this year is pretty barren unlike last year. I would expect a couple draft picks tomorrow be catchers - that's been the Twins MO lately and then see if they can hit on 1.

Yet you have 2 players that are Catchers that are doing pretty damn well from the time period selected plus 2022 (had already responded as Cossetti) . Williams in the 8th and Cossetti in the 11th just for the Twins. I understand what you are saying but you can find players anywhere, and the Twins have been pretty good at it whether pitcher or catcher. Right now the Williams and Cossetti are both major depth pieces for the catcher position for the Twins. Eh . . . let me go on my way.

Since this regime has came in they have had a crazy knack for finding diamonds in the rough. Not sure what the reasoning is or whether just dumb luck. Out of the ones named you have had some that have had a cup of coffee in the MLB. Then you have 3 that have positive WAR's. Varland .5 Julien .7 Ober 5.1

Lets just look at the 2017-2021 drafts by the Twins excluding 2020. 2017 - Faucher 10th, Ober 12th 2018 - Winder 7th, Williams 8th, helman 11th, Grace 13th Schulfer 19th 2019- Headrick 9th, Varland 15th, Julien 18th 2021 - Festa The 2022 draft has several players that have a chance at being quality players drafted in the 6th round or later. I don't know if you are just trying to be a negative nancy or what. Yes each pick doesn't have a high probability but the Twins have shown they can consistently find ball players throughout the draft.

Looks like we got another high strikeout pitcher in Santos. See what the staff can do with him. Likely a senior sign to save a few dollars, or maybe they really like him.

Just don't tell that to Andrew Cossetti :). I think you can find solid steals through the top 10-11 rounds most year, this year may be even a tad deeper.

Twins have some college prospects in the pipeline, they could take a few more big swings this year. The two first round picks has not been outside of the wheelhouse of the Twins, however having 2 is a bit odd. Getting a HS player in the 5th round is something that hasn't happened for a couple reasons, the biggest is most HS players don't want to commit for the money being offered. To get a quality player like Questad is a major win for the Twins. It is more upside, the Twins may be giving those who want a lot more pitchers what they want.

Jay Harry, SS — Penn State Straight up, Harry is one of my favorite players in the 2023 MLB Draft. He’s not the most physically gifted player in this class, but there’s not another player in the country who night after night comes into the clubhouse with a filthier jersey. He’s a scrappy kid who gets the most out of his ability. Harry had a strong year posting a .299/.376/.463 slash with 6 homers and 6 stolen bases. He had nearly as many walks, 20, as he did strikeouts (21). Harry saw 45 breaking balls inside the zone north of 80 mph. He made contact on 97 percent of those swings and averaged 94 mph on those batted balls. To be fair to the process, it should be noted Harry had a ton of foul balls on those swings. But the balls he kept between the white lines were pummeled. As previously mentioned, Harry doesn’t have the most intimidating physical tools, but he’s a gritty player who might belong somewhere on day three. All of his raw power presents itself to the pull-side thanks to a whippy bat path. He more often than not utilizes an inside-out swing that neutralizes his power. The whole package will likely never be a double-digit dinger guy, but he’s the type of guy who could run into 25 doubles in a season if given the opportunity. On the high end, maybe he’s a Brad Miller type of profile. Harry is very fun to watch on defense and has a shot to stick at shortstop moving forward.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2019/6/7/18656038/mlb-draft-2019-minnesota-twins-draft-recap - needless to say I think he was right on the #1 draft pick, but beyond that was a pretty successful draft.

Tanner Hall, solid pick - good command plus changeup. Only 90 mph fastball as high as 94-95. That would be something the staff can work with. Likely a good piece of clay for A and A+ ball.

The media has had concerns on day 2 and 3, most of the thrashing is on the board.

The trend I see right now with both HS hitters is short compact swings. Both with decent to above hit tool with plus power.

Winokur, HS OF - definitely a different feel to this draft than past drafts.

Damn Hurley just went 2 picks before.

Alright, about ready to roll, lets see how they go on day 2, and prepare to be initially disappointed :)

Yes, it appears he would like to go - but if drafted has a a high bonus demand. Right now the most likely candidates to sign a player like that would be 1. Pittsburg, likely have plenty of ammo after likely signing Skenes to a below slot deal, and possibly the Twins, who also possibly got a below market deal their first 2 picks - its hard to say if the Twins have any savings on their first 3 picks but history shows they likely do. Detroit may have also gotten a deal on Clark as well.

I think the Soto pick was slightly surprising as it wasn't a college player. However the Twins have been willing to take high end HS pitchers shown by the Raya and Petty. As to Keaschall, they may have thought there were higher rated prospects, however if he performs like Schobel, the Twins will have confirmation on picking him where he went. He is a bit of a pop up prospect and seems like he checks off the character category in spades. Go look at most Twins drafts the last couple years, other than last years early picks, they have been continually trashed and fans and media usually highly dislike day 2 and 3 picks, yet they tend to strongly outperform on these picks.

I know some get frustrated with the front office and drafting and especially day 2 but lets even just look at last years draft. 1. Lee 800 OPS in AA - had a heck of a game yesterday, if he can get up to 850 or higher OPS will continue to be a very highly rated prospect. He has a ton of doubles, if a few more of those turn into home runs his OPS will jump. 2. Priellip, injured but looks to still have the elite arm talent worthy of draft slot. 2B. Schobel - one of best hitters in A+ ball 840 OPS over 1.000 OPS in June 4. Morris - Low 3 ERA in A ball 5. Ross - 780 OPS A+ 6. Ortega - 820 OPS A+ 7. Jones -4.53 ERA A+ 8. Matthews - 3.7 ERA A+ 9. Lewis - 2.29 ERA A+ 10. Shuffield - 780 OPS A ball 11. Cossetti - 950 OPS A+ Ball Now all these players will likely not perform as they move up, but some well, and the more you have - the better chance 1 or more will be solid or better MLB players. Right now the success rate on last years draft is stupidly good, and that is currently without Priellip being healthy and pitching.

Since 2018, the Twins have outproduced their draft capital and have used a lot of it to supplement their big league team. Right now the teams are some of the most competitive in the minor leagues than they have ever been and will have multiple reinforcements coming with this draft. I hate playing next years draft as well, but the Twins will likely again have multiple picks, possibly 4 in the top 2 rounds. Drafting is hit and miss. I think the primary thing which I like the last year or two, is the Twins refocusing on hit tool, rather than just power. That should pay dividends in the future.

The other pick that has been mentioned and most would love is Cameron Johnson. 6'5" - has elite arm talent and is a lefty. There are some signability concerns. Another possibility the Twins or another team have something set up with the player. Will have to wait and see.