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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I don't think he has a done a press conference since the last one.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You have to trade Joe Ryan, however will teams be willing to trade potential for a half season of Joe Ryan and give commensurate value in return. That is the only question in my mind.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The only thing I will say is - they at least did a total rebuild this time. They effectively tore down to the studs and have a group of prospects that could give the Twins fans something to root for similar to the 82 group, the 2001 group and the 2018 group. They also may be forced to invest in the team if the new collective bargaining creates a salary floor. Even still we need a new ownership group - which you hope occurs after the collective bargaining.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins have had ample opportunity to bring up Culpepper this year. To me its very clear they are delaying their players clocks until after the new collective bargaining. So I don't see either of Culpepper or Jenkins coming up other than a cup of coffee that doesn't start their clocks yet.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He drops everyone down a level though. So his ERA is 1.5 to 2.0 with the Twins because of defense that isn't quite as good. He would have been the Twins closer coming into the season and would have solidified the early season woes. The Twins bullpen has gotten drastically better effectively when the twins got Gomez. He has slotted into the closer role and has done extremely well. I still question if he could fall off- but his stuff seems pretty good and the sweeper has really elevated his pitch mix. Giving him another weapon to keep hitters off balance. Even still it is not a game changer right now. The front office refused to pay or trade to rebuild the bullpen. They are taking the long approach to try to find castoffs and internal options to rebuild the bullpen. 2027 -2028 still feels like the time period where the Twins will really try to win. We are in a limbo where they are playing solid ball but not good enough to really do damage in the playoffs in my opinion. Overall though, I completely agree with the main points of your post.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Grady Emerson is the pick if he is available 100%. He is exactly the type of player the Twins have historically targeted and he has the highest ceiling of anyone since 2023. Things can change but this is the current outlook. 1. White Sox - 50/50 on Cholowsky or Emerson 2. Rays - They appear to prefer Vahn over Emerson I personally think you are in good shape with either 3 of these picks. However my board would be 1A. Emerson 1B. Cholowsky 3. Vahn In either case you are getting a very good prospect and really they are all very similar in tier level. Cholowsky is an extremely polished player. He is the best SS to come out of college since Tulowitzki. He has had extremely high consistent performance. You have an extremely high floor on Cholowsky. Emerson - He has a slightly higher ceiling than Cholowsky and some view as a better hit tool than Cholowsky. He has consistently been viewed very similarly to Bobby Witt Jr. Vahn - the best catching prospect to come through the draft since Rutschman. Good Hit tool, good defense and gets better every year. I think you are really splitting hairs on who will be better - I think its also why the White Sox appear to be 50/50 on Cholowsky or Emerson - go with the safer pick with still a very high ceiling, or go with the player who could have the highest ceiling of them all in Emerson. I said even when we got the pick I thought Emerson may fall to the Twins - these drafts are weird. As of right now - I still think that is the most likely outcome based on what we know. The real question becomes if its Cholowsky and Vahn does the rays still go Vahn? Its hard to say. We will know here in a few days.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Trading Varland was more than just getting Rojas and Roden. It was to try and get an elite player in the draft and with 3 elite players in the draft this strategy appears to have worked. I am glad Varland is doing well, but no one thought he would do this well. Last year he had a 4.94 ERA for the Blue Jays. Relievers are notorious for turning into pumpkins.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I do think there is a high probability one of our players will be leaving with the Red Sox on Thursday. We will see if anything comes to fruition.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lets look at trades where we were not forced buyers. Cruz for Ryan - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Petty for Gray - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Arraez for Lopez - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Duran for Escobar - Did you like that trade, should this trade increase your trust? Berrios for Martin and SWR. Berrios had a WAR of .9 for 2021 and 2022 which he was under control for. Martin has flopped, but SWR has a WAR of 3.3. This is a trade more can have questions on but its still a win for now. You add in getting rid of Donaldson contract (maybe you question signing him), the Rogers trade equated to equal value, and as of right now we are way ahead on the Polanco trade who had negative value last year with Gabriel Gonzalez. So on his skills on trading players, its honestly 1 of his strongest attributes. He does understand the value of assets in trades. This isn't me trying to convince you, its merely me giving you the facts. He has won a majority of the times when he has not been trying to buy to improve the team for the stretch run. If you want to go on performance fine. Most of our issues are with management, I will not totally agree with everything Falvey has done, but all in all for the most part he has given us a competitive team every year (some years they haven't performed). In the meantime the minors is the strongest it has ever been. With quality hitters and Pitchers. The argument will be the Twins have had minimal success taking these prospects and turning them into legitimate players. As of now the results have not been great. Right now Ober, Sands and Varland and Matthews, Lewis, Lee Larnach and Wallner are the players that have been drafted. We need a postitional player to become a star, can Lee or Lewis become that - as of now it doesn't look likely. Matthews has a legitimate shot at becoming a high end pitcher for the Twins. So if you don't want to trust him with trading the players my response would be, he has shown nothing on trades, especially when he has been in the power position to lose your trust.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Prielipp when healthy is dominant, like #1 or #2 pitcher dominant. Health has always been the question mark. Its why he had 1st round talent but were able to get him in the 2nd round, and also why he has been on the shelf for a significant portion of the last 3-4 years. As a lefty, with his velocity, spin, and quality pitches he definitely looks like are next high quality SP pitcher prospect. I do like the way they have been handling his workload, and gradually stretching him out. Good job for Hidalgo and Ross, they are doing their jobs but most likely the stuff from either is not good enough. The splits for July for Hidalgo are not good. If you want to talk about a pitcher that is making a statement, its Bohorquez. 0 ERA for July, only 2 total runs. He has a .077 Batting average against in 16 innings. He does need to work on his control, 3 HBP, and 4 BB, compared to just the 4 hits he has given up. Like Hidalgo he started off slow, jumping from FCL, but he has been dominant lately in A ball.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You completely missed the point of the article. This was a counterpoint to the article yesterday. Its not a question of whether he should have the job . . . he does, and it doesn't matter that you not impressed with what he has done. He currently has the job and his job duty is to create value for the team through good solid decisions. If it includes trading Ryan, Jax or Duran so be it. As stated, the one thing Falvey can not be faulted for is driving hard bargains on trades especially when he is the seller. Right now he is in the catbirds seat. He has 2 of the top 3 relievers available at the deadline, and the top SP available and all with a little less than 2 1/2 years. This means he his not forced to trade, or sell at a depressed value. As of now he and the Twins control the timeline and whether they want to trade or not. If someone wants to overpay, the hope would be we can replace the production with current players, prospects, or go on the trade market in the offseason or free agent market and replace the deficit.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wonder if Bean will still argue if Ryan is a #1 pitcher LOL. he is currently sitting at 4.3 WAR, the 12th highest of any pitcher.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am on the record it is difficult trading for prospects and then either putting them into roles and having them succeed or trying to trade in the offseason for equivalent talent. We did get Sonny Gray for 2 years for 18 year old prospect so its not unheard of. In either case it has to be a significant overpay. We have 2+ years of control for all 3. Currently I think Ryan is at the highest value of his career, Duran is pretty close to his highest level, and Jax is slightly off the highest value. I think the goal would be to trade just one of Duran or Jax. If they trade both, its because the market forced other teams to drastically overpay. In regards to Ryan, I think he is basically untouchable, meaning the return is so high that there is very little chance someone is willing to pay. However, if someone is desperate enough the Twins will entertain it. If they are asking for 2 top 100 prospects for Duran or Jax I can only imagine what the ask for Ryan is. I think in all 3 cases you have a better chance of an overpay now (especially with 3 postseason possibilities) than in the offseason. Plus I am not sure Ryan can be valued any higher than he is right now. It was just earlier this season when someone argued with me that Ryan could be considered an ace. Right now he is the #12 SP based on stats. Even still we all know what generally comes in the second half for Ryan and we got a taste of it in his last start.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The leverage Falvey has with Jax and Duran just went up with the Clase news. The odds 1 is traded went up (along with the potential value) and now there is a legit possibility both get traded if 2 teams are desperate enough.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He played 2nd 11 games last year. In the minor leagues during his entire tenure 4 games. So yes you have a valid question why they haven't played him more at 2nd in the minors if that is where they were going to play him. More than anything, he has been willing to play where ever he has been needed. That seems like a positive more than a negative. You have a negative opinion of him, Fine that is your choice, it doesn't mean he can't get better, and you completely ignored the Dozier comp.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So Brian Dozier, who started as a SS, switched to 2nd base, where he was initially considered a liability became a gold glove award winner in 2017 at age 30 completely obliterates your premise. Less than 1/2 season at 2nd base please, let Lee have the offseason if 2nd base is going to be where he lands next year. Corey Koskie went from below average defensively to one of the best. Jeffers has continued to improve every year defensively with some big jumps early in his career.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I have the over/under on 2.5 trades. Bader will be traded. Castro is a near lock as well. Coloumbe you think would be traded, but so far have heard little. If all you are going to get is a lotto, might be worth keeping just in case we do go on a run. Jax has the highest probability of the big 3 on being traded, I would put this one at 50%. I don't think its a high probably but I would say its a 1/3 chance Ryan gets traded which is higher than most have current prognosticated. There always seems to be someone who is desperate for starting pitching, and Ryan is the best available. Falvey will want premium value, but it wouldn't shock me if someone meets his price.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Baseball is more about anticipation that foot speed, and I think you are understating Lee's speed. Lee will never be a speed demon. However he plays a solid short and 3rd base, and is still learning 2nd base. Its not his fault that the Twins hadn't played him much there and suddenly and a dearth of players for 2nd base. He is still getting a feel of how the ball comes on that side of the turf. My son can immediately know the ball path when he plays right field, he prefers 2nd base and RF and really has quick reactions. When put in LF, it is much more reactionary. Yes the ball can have more spin, but there is a significant difference in how quickly he can react. I still expect him to trend between a .280 to .300 hitter with solid pop.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brooks Lee is the only one who could be an all star talent. Its hard to see right now, which is why I would not want to trade him. Surprisingly he has been a bit more of a free swinger than in college. He has untapped power and I do expect better defense as he continues to get better. I do think you would be selling low on Lee. The others, Wallner and Julien have a slimmer of hope. I don't see Miranda ever being good enough at the MLB level.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wallner may have more upside, Lee is likely still considered young and transitioning to MLB. Julien Miranda and Wallner have all had significant amount of bats at the MLB level. There isn't a high probability either of the 3 have something click and really blossom.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    All 3 would be considered selling low. Ober for the most part other than this year has been as good or a better pitcher for the Twins than Ryan.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You look at these trades, or the only other sell trades - getting Lopez for Arraez, and dumping Donaldson. I have always felt the Twins organization has done very well when trying to sell assets and in a position of strength. My question is how deep will these trades cut. Do we trade any of the big 3 of Ryan, Duran or Jax. I honestly feel like you could sell Ryan high. I do think this is his best year, and he routinely struggles towards the end of the season (was his last start a precursor). If we were to trade Jax, Coloumbe, Castro and Bader that should give us a pretty good return of prospects to add to our current group. If someone wants to overpay for Ryan, let them and then we can try to find a pitcher in the offseason or go with our current depth.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    All picks are now signed. Now of course its not a draft where we have a Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins headlining it but its a very good draft, especially based on how the Twins spent their money. I still don't think Houston has near the bat Culpepper does, however if the bat is better than anticipated, he is a surefire SS and would be a heck of a pick. Young and Agbayani both signed at pretty close to slot, I wasn't surprised on Young but Agbayani only going 20k overslot was very surprising. I really thought he would go to college if he didn't get a bonus of over 500k. Both are very good lottery tickets. Young if he can achieve his potential has better athleticism than either his dad or uncle. Daniels, Sprock and Mccombs all look like solid bats. Robinson, eh but if the bat comes around maybe. Pitching - the studs - Quick, Ellwanger, Barr and Reitz. Barr got a higher bonus than Reitz, likely a pre agreed to contract and pick. All 4 of these have high upside and high volatility. All have questions on control. I have been wanting the Twins to swing for more of a #1 pitcher and all 4 of these picks give you that opportunity. Depth Pitching pick - Kolton Smith 200k, Fang 177k, Mitrovich, 172k, Stevens 172k, Merit Jones 150k, Matthew Dalquest 150k Hilker 125k, Moring 100k. I have always said you can tell how much the Twins like a prospect by how much they pay them. Historically at pick 11 and down, they may put up to slot on 3-4 picks and rarely go overslot. They did it 3 times in this draft. They drafted more pitchers at the money slot or higher than any other year. And they spent a lot more money towards the end of the draft that they have ever done. There were very few throw away picks as well with senior signs. The Twins obviously love the staff at Alabama, obviously picking 2 players from them this year as well as Priellip, the biggest question where we had minimal info on was Stevens and basically did not pitch for Bama this year and was going to transfer. Yet the Twins paid overslot - yes he had some leverage that he could perform well this year in college, but it just doesn't match up with what he has done this year. That tells you the Alabama coaches think he has a lot of untapped potential. After the 1st pick the Twins really swung for the fence and didn't let up even til the end of the draft. The Twins based on the money they paid and the information we have on some of the prospects really liked the college pitching pool this year. If they can replicate anything close to the results of the 2022 pitching class this would be a heck of a class. I didn't really think either of the past 2 draft classes were as good as 2022. This is the first class that I think could give it a run with the depth picks, and the top 4 picks is the best assortment of high end pitchers that the Twins have ever accumulated in a single draft.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    LOL - first off he has had 12 starts. For the year he has 4.97 ERA across 2 levels and 16 starts - that is a good solid season. How many people complained about Gonzalez last year when he struggled. He dropped off the top 100 prospect lists. Plus I said Painter was still a good prospect. The issue is I have seen 2 separate reports stating he is more of a reliever than a starter. Basically a similar write up to Joe Ryan when we got him. Overall I could care less. This is all just random info until we get more specifics as we get closer to the deadline. Its not worth getting riled up over.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Painter has a 5 ERA in AAA. Having a little bit of control issues with the fastball and looking like he may be more of a reliever than a starter. I don't think he is the #1 pitching prospect right now, as a lot of the shine has rubbed off. Even still a really good prospect.
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