Hawkeye Bean Counter

Those are the values in the trade calculator and I’ve never seen any qualifiers, the values are to get you in the ballpark.

Like I said I don’t trade anyone and take my chances and see we can get to the playoffs, a chip and a chair philosophy. If Jeffers does well down the stretch a comp pick is all but guaranteed and worth more than anything we can get in a trade. If Ryan can be strong down the stretch and get a playoff win and maybe top 3 cy young he is still worth around 40-46. Math and Milwaukee philosophy says 1 year left is the time to trade.

Trade Calculator. Ryan 46. For Tolle 62 Twins +16. See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.

Valuation wise it’s a massive overpay for the Red Sox. 5 years of a #2 or better pitcher for a top 5 pitcher in the game for a year and 2 months.

Hypothetical - if Red Sox offered Tolle for Ryan heads up do you take it?

This is the one trade I questioned at the time. Even still a multi all star catcher is more valuable than a good reliever.

Jeffers is the difficult decision. It’s a position of strength that we have 2 competent catchers here if we trade. If you get a kings ransom I’m sure they will consider it. The downside is it could cause issues and lose the clubhouse moral. If it’s used to improve the team I think it would go over fine. There is the possibility a qualifying offer and comp pick could extract value as well but there is lots of calculations in that. As to Ryan- again unless Kings ransom my honest opinion is let him finished the season and re-evaluate after the new bargaining agreement is agreed to. Valuations could be slightly depressed saying he fades and also uncertainty over next year. My base case is we have a full season. He could have a valuation that isn’t drastically lower since last trade deadline. Last years calculated he had a value of 56- last I checked it was 42. Then decide if the window opens next year or you want a younger player to have more resources for a run from 28-30.

I was an admistrator of nursing homes managing 60 employees and caring for 60 residents for 10 years. I have been a C.P.A. and managed my own office for 12 years. My management style was similar to Joe and Falveys relationship. I gave lots of autonomy to my staff and gave them as much information as possible. Ultimately the buck stopped with me so any major decision was discussed with me and the team and I made the decision. It was collaborative but there was always a rationale. I got the job as a 22 year old. I got a new boss just like Tom. Her expectations were unrealistic, she wanted to micromanage and resident care was not her priority. I had taken a 1 star facility and made it a 5 star facility with multiple deficiency free surveys and turned around the financials from losing 100k to making 250k each year. I gave my notice and the home has gone through 8 administrators in the last 12 years and ha gone in the toilet since. I finished 3 classes to get my CPA and I haven’t looked back.

LOL you are quoting the same points you did in February. 1. Zoll was a subordinate of Falvey period. Anything Zoll did trade contract signings ect was done at the approval of Falvey. End of story. Now I do think Zoll did have quite a bit of rope especially for a new individuals in the role. 2. Tom got roasted for stating there was no half measures, but he was going to keep a low payroll and minimal investments. When you listened not only to Tom, but what Falvey said and then what the beatwriters said, that is where the full picture comes from. If you are not following GAAP then thats your license. You can keep your job for the time being but I am not sure thats worth it and I would never compromise my C.P.A. license for that. It appears you are. I am about as straight and narrow - black and white as it comes and integrity is #1 for me. Say what you will - I do think Tom has integrity. I think he is still naive but yes he is one who wants to follow through with what he has stated. His issue was his lack of understanding of baseball was butting up against someone who had the experience and knowledge yet Tom was dictating how things would go before learning how and why. He rushed this. I honestly think had they worked together and the way the season has gone that Tom and Falvey would have gotten along pretty well. When he had the beat writers at the breakfast I think he was much more aware of the situation stating this team had outperformed due to good team dynamics and the performance up to this point was greater than the sum of its parts. That is a complete departure from his declaration the Twins were going to win no matter what and there would be no half measures.

Zoll gave input- he was the General Manager. However he was a subordinate of Falvey - who coordinated with Joe. Joe tended to be more hands off which is how Falvey gained as much power as did. I don't think you realize how involved Tom is trying to be. Go listen to what Falvey said, effectively he was wanting to micromanage - set difficult expectations and if goals weren't achieved even with a questionable roster he would be let go at the end of the season. Tom stated at the breakfast - he wondered why teams had to wait til the deadline to trade. The very next day the Twins traded for Nance. Maybe things just came together, but I have a feeling Zoll was looking for an opportunity to please his boss. Tom is the ultimate decision maker right now - under the board. I do think Zoll is trying to educate him but Tom stated he wanted to win, has told the players he will support them at the deadline -go listen to Joe Ryan - has stated he doesn't want to trade Ryan or Jeffers although that could change. Right now if Tom says something listen - because that is the direction this team is going as long as the Pohlads still own this team.

To be fair I recall the following - Your opinion was Taj Bradley sucked last year "who can't beat out "TBD" in the rotation, correct?" Ridiculing the idea that with all the trades last year it would result in losing lot of games last year although painful would result in a better prospect that would give the Twins a better chance to win in the future. Most would agree Lackey has the potential to be a franchise player for the Twins. Stating there was no way the Twins would be able to compete this year. So to sum it up those were your opinions and needless to say on the other side and a year later things are quite different. It all depends on how you want to look at things.

He gained a title to his already title. He had no decision making ability - so who is being dishonest. Read my whole posts rather than cherry picking singular lines. I have no idea why you are so hung up on this.

I never stated he wasn't name GM in 24. You seem rather obtuse regarding this subject. Whatever title Zoll had, he had no real decision making ability regarding players or trades prior to February 1st.

Falvey was the Executive Vice President and Chief baseball Officer. Zoll became the Executive Vice President/General Manager when Falvey left. Falvey was making the decisions, although Zoll would assist. Pohlad now appears to be the decision maker. He is not quite as naive but still seems be a little Pollyanna. Right wrong or indifferent, I think the best think for this team was Falvey quitting with the ultimatum effectively you have to win this year and push all the responsibilities back on Pohlad. Other than Lopez getting injured things have gone about as well as could have been expected.

I personally think some of the shine is off Tait and that he pretty much is what he is currently. I would cash in on him now personally. A power bat with aggressive swing decisions and high strikeout rates and average to below average defense.

I completely think there will be a phase in. But I don't think anyone would be surprised that the Twins would need to spend $100 million for 2027- $125 million in 28 and $150 million by 29, The phase out for the overspenders would be in 25-20 million increments as well. . Thats the game changer. The league will state there will be more money going to players if they raise the floor and they will allow a nominal increase amount based off every year. If the math equates to an extra 400 million, the players have to say yes. Actual proposal - Hard Cap $245 million Payroll Floor $171 million Total change - $246 million +$840 million Net +600 million This has to be phased in otherwise it will be cash grab and massive amounts of extensions. But this appears to be a boon for the players and teams can state the money is actually going to pay the players rather than pay salary tax.

He has been pushing 95 mph in his relieve outings. 2 mph higher than this spring. I am still not quite sure what the issue was.

Right now Tom is heading this team giving it direction for the financial resources and whether to buy and sell players. Zoll is merely processing the transactions. He will likely get some Kudos for identifying some reliever talent - but the biggest thing is it doesn't appear he is getting taken advantage of on trades.

JD - you have done excellent draft coverage from the podcasts to articles here. Thank you very much. 1. I have high hopes for Lackey - I think he will be the best catcher in the league for a significant time frame. I think he will be the perfect person to take the mantle after a gap year from Jeffers. I think the Twins will be able to keep him fresh and let his bat rake. (Confidence factor 90%) 2. Tinney - I have a man crush right now. Lackey was easy this guy is a swing for the fence pick literally and figuratively. The exit velocities are crazy. I put him in the category of a Winokur and Young pick with a drastically higher floor and the most demanding defensive position. No you are not getting the athleticism unicorns that are Winokur and Young - but you are getting a Catcher prospect with better defense that he is given credit for, a bat tool that is better than he is given credit for, power that will do serious damage to the stats and outfield seats. And the kicker he has the drive to get better and wants to remain a catcher. IF he pans out and a similar time frame as Lackey - they would be the perfect battering mates to pair together, can keep each other fresh and the Twins could have the most significant offensive advantage at the catcher position for a significant window. Otherwise he moves to 1st, trade ect. (Confidence factor 70%). I like Renfrow, Wachsmann, Lapour, Murdock, Bayles, Burns and Brouchard. The Twins drastically need some of these guys to pan out to help the lower minors. The 2023 and 2024 drafts have left a massive gap at AA for quality pitching prospects or pitching in general. The system is being carried by the 2022 draft and most of those have been called up already to help at the MLB level (Lee, Priellip, Morris, Matthews). Between the picks, Soto, Dasan Hill, Quick, Ellwanger, Reitz, Barr, Mitrovich, Moring, Smith. We really need these young pitchers to start figuring it out. This is the first time I have been a bit concerned about the pitching coming up through the minors. Alas its all a wait and see. Thanks again.

This is the investment in the bullpen so far - Gomez (closer) - traded cash max outlay of 250k Morris (fireman) - prospect for 4th round pick Nance (middle innings 7th) - traded Sprock and received 250k international money back Rogers - $2 million signing Banda - traded 500k international money Sands - already rostered Orze - traded Kisting Go - Cash considerations Acton - traded Whitaker So for the current bullpen we have invested $2 million, traded max of 500k cash, we are net 250k down in international money and we have traded away Sprock, Kisting and Whitaker. The Twins have found 2 high leverage relievers, they will see if Sands can become a high leverage reliever with his increased velocity and I am cautiously optimistic on Nance. I would have zero concerns on trading Tait, Gonzalez, Mendez, Rojas, Debarge Winokur or Young. Rojas is the only pitching prospect I would consider and that would have to be for a great return. If the Twins can play good baseball and bring fans to the stands down the stretch that should pay for any players coming to the Twins. This was the year where they could have thrown money at reliever free agents and they have shown yet again relief pitching can be found and developed through relatively cheap methods. I am fine if a reliever comes with a contract, but I just don't see them spending money on a reliever. The Twins current method of constructing a team is draft your hitters, trade for your starting pitchers, and develop the bullpen. Its been working. 4 of the top 5 pitchers have been traded for since 2020 (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and Bradley). Right now I am 90% confident that Jeffers is not traded, nor any other significant piece of the team.

1. The offense might slow down a bit, but will remain one of the top offenses in MLB. 1 of the biggest outperformers with RISP has been Bell. He is slashing .343/.391/.636. He has hunted those RBI - The biggest thing he hasn't tried to do to much. He just tries to put the ball in play when runners are on. What Bell is doing like last year is he is really beginning to heat up. So there may be a regression to the mean, or Bell warming up and getting into groove will allow the stats to remain high. You have multiple other hitters really hitting their stride hitting. Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Larnach in the mid tier. Guys who have always had talent. The Twins stopped coddling Lewis and allowing Lewis to just do things his way. He has started to get confident again and he is ripping the ball. Clemens since May has been extremely consistent. Larnach has been solid all year and really finding his home as the #1 hitter. Jeffers is back and Buxton had some time to get healthy. 2. Tigers may make a push but will still be sellers. They face Angels (weak), Cubs (good), KC (weak), Orioles (average). Before the deadline. That is a schedule they could make a run with but ultimately they have never been a cohesive team this year. They are the 2025 Twins. They will then trade Skubal ending any possibility of them making a push. 3. Twins will be buyers at the deadline (*). Unless they go 3 games under 500 in the next 12 games, Tom wants this team to win so badly to keep his word to players and fans (even though the fans I wouldn't worry about- they are fickle). I see them buying throughout the next 2 weeks just like they did with Nance. I expect 2 more relievers - 1 average and 1 high leverage. The question is will they get another starter. Personally I say yes but I will discuss next point. 4. Pitching staff with reinforcements will continue to produce Viable results. Pitching is as reliant on defense as it is pitching. Kreidler manning the SS position and providing excellent defense with Lee at 3rd, Clemens at 2nd and Lewis at 1st is providing average to above average defense in the infield which is something the Twins haven't done in while. This is taking some stress off. The bullpen has been headed by Gomez and Morris the last month or two. Relievers can fall off but what these 2 are doing is not smoke and mirrors. Gomez has effectively gone to 3 pitches that tunnel well together - the fastball, slider that tails away from the right hander and the cutter that cuts in. Just like Ryan and Bradley, the Twins have elevated Gomez fastball effectiveness after coming over from the Rays. Morris is just finding himself. As much as we miss Varland, in 17 innings since June 3rd Morris has effectively been unhittable with a .53 whip. He seems to be getting stronger and not tailing off. Reinforcements are coming. Nance will be with the team after the break and it appears Sands with improved velocity (back to 2025 levels) will be joining the team as well. The bullpen will appear to have 4 solid arms as of now - and then supplement with Go, Funderburk, Rogers and pick who else. I think Coulombe will be added in the next 48 hours adding another arm. Assuming buyers as stated above - They add another high leverage arm at minimum. You never know how they will work together but that looks like a solid bullpen. SP - This is being led by Ryan and Bradley. Another additional #3 pitcher would really help but we currently have 4 arms filling the 3 starter position. Ober, Priellip, Matthews and Paredes. Using the schedule and skipping starts I think they can keep those 4 performing well down the stretch. The only concern I would have is injury. As long as that doesn't occur I think they are fine. Ryan in past seasons has begun losing a bit in later July. His current July stats are looking really good. He had a couple rough starts to end June but he has added some additional tweaks that should allow him to continue to deceive and be a #1 pitcher through the remaining dog days of summer. A #3 pitcher would drastically help morale - give them reinforcement and could possibly give you a 3 headed monster to head into the postseason with. 5. They will play meaningful baseball in Sept. My biggest concern about the sell off last year was that it could create a losing culture in the clubhouse. We are seeing zero of that. What we are seeing is a team that is beginning to get confident. Many of the highly drafted players are beginning to fulfill their potential and we have coach that seems to be pushing the right buttons. Maybe they come up short, but this team will have played entertaining baseball which is what I said they needed to do.

He was a solid player for the twins in 2023. He made nearly $17 million during his career. Not bad at all.

That was before the expansion of teams in the playoffs. Supply vs demand is a little different now but your point remains the same with just a little more compensation needed. If we get Coulombe my guess is 1 more 7th to 8th inning arm. Something cheaper than a closer. If you can get an additional arm cheap so be it. I will say this game of paying cash or a small prospect for a solid reliever from a good team with a roster crunch seems to be more available than I expected. I can see a scenario where the Bullpen has essentially been rebuilt. Yes the team will continue to tweak, but this is much further along than I expected. Injuries and underperformance in the bullpen was expected. Especially when working with arms initially with minimal velocity. The quality of of arms is definitely moving in the right direction. No one will mistake it for last years bullpen to start the year but it could be one of the biggest transformations from beginning to end of the year on record in the MLB.

I will one up you. I didn’t mention Tinney because of being a second round pick. However even with minimal information this is effectively my take on him and likely the Twins thoughts and I do agree they likely had a player or two taken before. Johnson said 3 interesting thins on drafting catchers and Tinney in particular. He was the best position player on the board 2. In most years the catching prospects they had targeted were sniped early 3. They view Tinney defense and hit tool better than most saying he improved his defensive metrics during the season and his in zone swing and miss improved in season as well. He started off the season pressing and still ended with elite numbers. So what do we know, he is a big guy, he is actual pretty agile there is one block where he jumped behind the hitter to block and he has a cannon of an arm. Pitch framing and better blocking appear to be the focuses. Defense will keep him at catcher but his bat is what will get him to the MLB level. Once he hit the ball it flies. Only 1 other player hit it harder. If the hit tool is good enough - you have Cal Raleigh. I think the Twins really like him. He has an excellent drive to get better and the was the stated reason they decided to believe in him and draft him. Yes the stats were really good with hit tool concerns, yes there are some defensive concerns (he won the gold glove award this year). When catchers with any upside are taken early for the draft to effectively fall into place for the Twins even if it was a focus for them as well we take it. Ultimately I see him as a better Jeffers. Worst case defensively it doesn’t work out and he becomes a first base man. I just think baseline he is able to be a catcher, this even if the hit tool is still a little light, he still likely provides good to elite production from the catcher position.