Hawkeye Bean Counter

Lee, Julien and Wallner all are tearing it up. Those are good things, I would love to see all 3 on the big league team. If all 3 are up and doing well, the offense should really be rolling. You would be letting go of farmer and 2 other players, but you have a lot of quality at bats especially with Lee and Julien. If not some definite solid trade bait there as well.

Maybe you are right, I think with the increase velocity on the fastball, it is just not creating enough movement and its creating too many opportunities for good players to crush it. It really decreases the chance of continued success.

Miller needs to be a below average bat to be a defensive backup in the big leagues, his bat isn't there yet. Doncon, needs to be an above average bat, and so far at 20 years old, appears to be well on track. Hopefully the hit tool continues to be solid with some decent power. This could end up being a decent trade for the twins. Especially if Margot can keep up his hot bat.

Honestly Ft. Myers isn't that bad, Pitching could really start to become dominant even with promoting Lee and Langenberg. Hall, Dunn, Soto, and now moving Bengard to SP. That could be a very strong starting 4, especially if Soto is starting to dial it in which I think he is. As to the hitters a little weak right now, but Jenkins could turn it around. Where is Winokur?? But Wingrove (independent league pick up) .929 OPS, Peyton Eeles .965 OPS, C Ruiz OPS .965, RF Hess 1.185, Winokur .759. You can build a lineup around that. Yes some independent league pickups, but some interesting talent there. Varland is just too much of a wildcard. Blow ups in MLB blow ups in AAA. I think he needs some time off to readjust. I think reliever is his only chance really at a decent career. Julien and Wallner really starting to get into a groove. Those appear to be next to options with injuries or underperformance. Nice to have those options, with minimal quality players available in trades this year.

Bad pick but that draft was still very very good, 1st round - Matt Wallner AAA, MLB 2nd round - Centerino - AAA (talent, can't stay healthy, last really chance here later this year into next year) 3rd - Spencer Steer- MLB 5th - Will Holland - AAA (hit tool finally coming around could be MLB bound soon) 6th - Sawyer Gipson Long - MLB tigers 7th - Anthony Prato - AAA (down this year, otherwise looked like top 2-3 options to go to MLB with injuries) 8th - Casey Legumina - MLB 9th - Brent Headrick - AAA, MLB see where he is once healthy 15th - Louie Varland - AAA, MLB - looked like a player struggling this year 18th - Edouard Julien - AAA, MLB - looked like top 50 player last year, still solid this year, but need to improve hit tool

I love all the qualifyers that are occurring to try to prove your thesis. You have to give the front office and coaches some ownership of developing previous draft picks is point #1. It takes 3-4 year to develop a prospect to be ready for the majors and in some cases more than that. So yelling about 7-8 years - really 7 drafts and with the middle one being Covid, you only have 3 drafts you would expect any major league talent from. 2ndly if the team is not investing much high draft capital into pitching you would not expect to have a ton of #1 pitchers and a huge pipeline. Lastly if you trade a drafted player for a current asset you most certainly get to use the value accrued. They are giving up future value for current value. Now lets look at the drafts and I am going to break into 3 groupings. 2017-2019 Draft - In 2017 2nd - Leach 3rd- Enlow 10 Faucher 12 Ober (5.3 War) 2018 No pitcher picked til 5th - 5th Sands (-.2 War), 7 Winder (.3 War) 15 Funderburk (.5 War) 219 2nd Canterino (#13 prospect) , 6th Gipson Long - traded for 1/2 season of Fulmer (.5 War), 8th Legumina - traded for Farmer (1.4 War) 15 Varland (.4 War) In total you ended with 8.2 War for the Twins from pitching prospects. Considering only 2 - 2nd round picks and 1 3rd round pick and you have ended up with a #3 starter, a couple #5 starters in Winder and Varland and a useable bullpen piece in Sands. For the Capital invested, that is a very good return. This is the Twins strategy, to take a lot of long shots and see if can develop, and find pitching from trades. While at the same time, really beginning to build a pipeline. Canterino is still a wild card, when healthy he can be a valuable piece for the organization, will he ever be healthy is the question. 2020 draft - - 4th round - Raya #6 Prospect 5 rounds really hurt the twins who like to find players deep in the draft. Even still you have Raya who has talent and ability. For a 4th round pick, really adds to the pipeline 2021-2023 2021 - 1st Petty (traded for Gray 7.8 WAR runner up Cy Young and 2024 #33 pick), 2nd round Hajjar (traded) - 3rd Povich (traded - currently SP for Orioles) , #13 Festa (#5 prospect), #14 Ohl, #19 Nowlin 2022 - 2nd Priellip (#16), 4th round Morris (#17), 8th round Matthews (#19), 9th round Lewis (#12), 13th round Culpepper (#8) Other than Priellip, all you can say is holy ****. That is a ton of talent from one draft for minimum drafted capital. Priellip like Canterino needs to stay healthy. The Twins really liked his stuff when he was able to pitch. 2023 draft - still a work in progress but a lot of arms and talent. and Lee and Langenberg already in A+ ball. Their biggest pick for pitching is Soto. In Summary the pitching picks of the last 3 drafts have given us the following - 7.8 War - a 2024 1st round pick - and 9 pitching prospects in the top 30. Festa currently looks like the best of the bunch, but I fully expect 1-2 arms from that 2022 class to succeed and make it to the big leagues. That is just too much talent, not all of it will flame out most likely. So we have accumulated 16 War from our pitching prospects drafted. Currently we have an above average starter in Ober, with Sands and Varland also being part of the team. We have in total 11 prospects drafted in our top #30 prospects and I expect that to go up at the end of the season as 2023 draft picks begin to get included. A possible #2 Festa, some #3 - #5, and true wildcards in Canterino, Priellip and Soto (each with slight chance at being a #1 or #2 but all with major question marks). So yes I think they have developed a pipeline. Yes I think they have traded away talent to help big leagues, and I expect much more to come in the future.

Who have they spend big draft capital on. That they have any type of pipeline is impressive. The fact they were left in with much either is something you have to acknowledge as well, As well as Covid messing things up in the middle. I am not saying its perfect, and there have been a few duds, but for the most part, the production they have gotten, and the pipeline developed with the total lack of high end draft picks is pretty damn impressive.

A tad bit, but already gone well in depth on the pitching pipeline, if you can't see a solid pipeline built on picks drafted on a couple 4th round picks, several in the 7-10 range and several more in the teens, I really don't know what to say. They have a built up a solid pipeline of #2 to #4 pitchers that should give the big leagues 1 to 2 solid options each year for the foreseeable future. Some will flame out or get injured, but its the number of prospects that is impressive. At the beginning of the season, people questioned the depth, even with Varland struggling, SWR and now Festa look like very solid options. If Festa can be a #2 or #3, You would have Ober, SWR, and Festa developed in the minors and 2 of them drafted. No offense that is pretty solid.

To be fair 2020 draft was effectively shuttered. We did get Raya. The 2021 draft we traded away, we did get 2 years of Sonny gray, and a late 1st round draft pick (although would have rather kept Gray all things considered). We have had 2 1st round draft picks, Petty traded away and Soto from last year. Most of our depth in the minors and our 2 starter ahem Bailey Ober has been a solid #3 starter for us over the last couple of years. 5+ WAR. If we can get similar production from SWR that would be solid. This has allowed us to make a lot of picks for hitters. An infield of Lewis, Correa, and Lee is bonkers. If we can figure out 1st base and solidify the outfield you will have a hell of a lineup. As to pitching, keep drafting and keep developing what they have done has worked. They cannabalized the 2021 draft which helped our team for 2 years with Gray. Just look at our starting rotation from 2020 to now. Dobnak, Maeda, Berrios, Hill, Pineda, Odorizzi. Now we have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR and Paddack. Everyone locked in for next year as well. Last year we were top 6 staff. Currently 21, for staff ERA, I do expect us to move up with the remainder of the year. I expect Lopez and Paddack to better down the stretch. Argue what you want to about the management, drafting shouldn't be 1 of the main things you go after. They have kept the major league team competitive, while completely rebuilding the minor leagues. Every single minor league team has been competitive for the last 2 years. Tells you all you need to know about the minor league system. A lot of depth, a lot of good coaching and some very good hitting and pitching prospects to throw in.

Eh, that pipeline has already given us Ober. Winder and Varland have been fringe starters so far. I still expect Varland to figure it out, even if it is as a reliever. Even though we traded for SWR, we have developed him in the minors, and he has been a very solid starter for us this year. So for 2/5ths of the current rotation, plus Varland and Festa as depth, that is pretty damn impressive. Considering the team traded away most of your 2021 draft. Most of our depth is from 2022 and 2023 drafts.

Definitely SSS, and not found in the draft but is definitely catching my eye. Between him, McCusker, and Eeles, Twins are finding some very good talent in the independent leagues.

You have Festa and Varland in AAA. In AA you have Raya, Lewis, Matthews and Morris that look like legit prospects at this point and high prospect in Raya (that is not considering Nowlin or Ohl who have had ups and downs but potential) that were all picked in the draft and other than Morris and Raya (both picked in the 4th) after the 7th round. In A+ you have Culpeper and Langenberg and Lee currently. Those 3 are a tad fringy but close. Improve a couple things, Langenberg and Lee are still in first full year, they have shot to continue the Varland and Festa path. This also does not include Priellip or Canterino who may have the best talent of any pitcher other than Festa in the top 3 leagues. A ball is continuing of taking a variety of pitchers and continuing to succeed with them. Bengard and Bragg have been revelations so far as a relievers. with both sporting ERA's of 1. Hall is really beginning to turn a corner, and I still have very high expectations for him. Dunn has great stuff, is improving his control. You have a few other players, but will wait to see if they really start to shine. Then you have Soto. Putting him in A ball is a big jump, he has struggled, however, is starting to show signs of turning a corner, throwing more strikes. I think will have a good stretch here for the rest of the summer. I know I am optimistic but he has talent and there is great coaching down there. I think they will really start to figure it out. For 18 years old, its damn impressive. You then have Questad who is even a bigger question mark (truly a lottery pick, will know more in a year or two if it was a good gamble or not). No offense that is a damn fine pipeline. Best we have had top to bottom in the last 20 years. Now no one at this point is viewed as a #1 pitcher. However, it is a ton of options. Several will flame out, but it is creating more than enough depth if there is underperformance or injury at the big league level or any of the affiliates. Someone is ready to step up. You also have another draft to continue to stock pile depth.

Again, its questionable why not included, other than included in a previous installment, once I looked back.

No Brecht??? Maybe including as the player that may get picked top 15. He might, he might have enough warts to last to 21. Will have to wait and see.

Such a dumb article. Do you have any idea what the hit rate on picks is, for the round and the pick in the round. Lets just say its not very high. Then you add in whether a pitcher or a hitter, and whether a high schooler or college player. Throw in injuries relative under performance and you will get some players that don't perform. Priellip and Canterino still have a possibility of being good players for the Twins, unlike Cavaco their is still a possiblity they get and remain healthy. Both appear to have decent talent, ultimately that was the issue with Cavaco. This organization the last thing I would say is a poor drafting team. Honestly they are easily top 10. Last years draft will have huge ramifications on the organization and how its drafting is viewed. I am very curious to see how they do this year.

Last year was a tad disappointing, but all things considered with the plantar fasciitis, honestly a pretty solid season. My concern was whether the bat speed was declining. Last year in the playoffs and this year that is a negative. We get 3-4 solid years out of this contract and its a win. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the best long term contracts ever signed when the contract is finished. If you get 1-2 WS (big dreams right) you could even see him go to Cooperstown in a Twins Jersey. Him and Lewis is the best 1-2 is the best left side we have had potentially in the entire Twins history. Lets see how the next couple years go.

I think the original seemingly success of Petty in 2021 even though traded, was enticing enough to try again. Right now the 2 high school bats taken in last years draft are doing pretty well, while the 2 high school pitchers are scuffling. I still think it is early on both pitchers to write them off. However, the Twins have done well to follow the percentages and I would be fine if they did it again. I like Brecht immensely but would be fine with 2 bats in the 1st round.

As long as the velocity stays up, which it is actually increasing, he will continue to have good success. He was billed as a potential top of the rotation pitcher (a #1 or #2), that was if his velocity increased due to excellent command and very good secondary pitches. I think he has focused a ton on control and quality of the secondary's with the decreased velocity, so now with nearly 3-4 more mph, everything is coming so much easier. I have a lot of confidence he will be able to maintain and be solid 2-4 pitcher for the Twins.

Holland finding a hit tool, holy crap. Likely a one off, but a very good development at this point. He has the athleticism and defense to be a player at the mlb level. The question was always if he could hit enough.

I would still lean into Brecht if available. I'm not sure he will be available and not sure the twins will give a shot but let me give my reasoning. The pitching coach for Iowa was abysmal. Gone after 2 years. The coach had immense talent on team struggled to get it to perform and specifically to throw strikes. Second Brecht has until last summer been playing both football and baseball, not a full commitment to baseball so I think there is a great chance for additional instruction (especially considering the firing of the pitching coach to improve mechanics and command. The knock on Brecht has been an inability to locate the fastball, and questions about the third pitch. The elite velocity on his fastball and the elite slider are reasons why the potential is so high. This year, his ability to land the slider waivered (what has been considered his best pitch). However, his command of the fastball improved and the splitter he has been working on, really started to become affective. Now some of this was against lower level competition but his stats the last month were crazy good, like Skenes good. The question has been the walks and the velocity. Worst case I think you have a potential elite closer. Otherwise you have a shot at a #1 pitcher with more refinement. I see no other batter that has the potential to be elite like Brecht. I've mentioned before I really think Langenberg will be key on getting intel on both Iowa pitchers in the draft and discussing the issue with the coach. Its not surprising Langenberg struggled last year when the the new coach arrived. Langenberg has done extremely well with the Twins and we just promoted him to A+ ball.

Its amazing how a pick or two changed the draft. There was talk Pirates wanted Clark on a discounted deal, had that happened, wouldn't have been unreasonable if we got Skenes or Langford. Texas at 4 was interesting because they were very high on Jenkins. At this point there has been a clear top 3 so far, Skenes, Langford and Jenkins. Will be interesting to see how this progresses but this has still been an epic draft as a whole.

Give me Brecht. His Pitching coach was fired this year, issues with the entire staff. He still improved this year. He has 2 elite pitches, 1 being a slider that the Twins love. If he gets there, you take him and run is my opinion. He has the highest potential of being a #1 pitcher, of almost any other pitcher this year. The other I look at is Morgan if he is willing to come out from Iowa. Both solid pitchers. You should be able to get good intel on both players from Langenberg. I could see the Twins picking both personally.

Twins can afford it. They won't have to because he won't take it, because last time to cash in, and someone will pay him more than $50 million. He has been very good for almost a full year now, and a damn fine player since he came up with the Twins. If he remains healthy he is a lock. As is, he is a top 30 positional player. (slightly below currently due to time off for injury)

Disappointing appearance by Soto, but it happens. Hopefully does better in his next start. Professional ball is a big step up from high school. Winokur with 2 more steals. He is definitely strike prone, he has racked up several the last week, but continues to put up counting stats and picking up steals. I was not expecting that from him. Who would have thought he would be on pace for 30+ steals. Power speed combo.

Miranda will be able to continue to help at 3rd, 1st and DH. At this point he is a better option than Farmer to give Lewis some off days. You can have some platoons advantages with Santana and then is an above average bat at DH. He will get more than enough opportunity. Right now Kiriloff needs a break. Not only do you have Buxton coming back but you have Wallner figuring it out again down in AAA. Then you have Lee getting healthy potentially around June. Its a long season and lots of bumps and bruises but we have quality bat options. Larnach and Miranda have been revelations. I have said if 2 of the 3 of Miranda, Larnach and Kiriloff could figure it out, this team would be pretty darn good. Add in Kepler and Jeffers playing like All Stars. The heavy bat approach in the draft is beginning to pay off.