LyleCole

People can SAY anything. Of course he says he wants to stay in Minnesota. But, when confronted with a huge upgrade in teams and the chance to play in the World Series, he would forget everything he ever said. And if he didn't, then you have to wonder about his competitiveness level. So, in a way, you can believe him and not believe him simultaneously. "Byron we have a deal to trade you to teh LA Dodgers do you opt out of your no trade?" Split second later "Of course." But, Byron we have a deal to trade you to the Montreal Expos, do you reject that trade" is a much different proposition.

Sure. And again as I said in another post, if he would have been traded to an actual contender this last offseason in which he could become a well known player competing in meaningful games rather than a good player in MLB backwater city: the "I want to stay in Minnesota" claim would have been over. Byron Buxton playing for the Dodgers is a superstar. Byron Buxton playing for the Twins is "who is he" except for die hard fans. THe probability that Buxton would have rejected a trade to LA, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Red Sox was 0%.

Positive thinking is not analytical thinking. And it is absolutely correct to point out mistakes that have happened in the past. The mistake they made at the beginning of 2026 was not trading Buxton and Joe Ryan. If you set their relative trade value to 100 in the offseason of 2026, I would argue that Buxton's trade value is now about 40 and Ryan's 50. Less than half. I would argue that Ryan Jeffer's trade value relative to the trade deadline is also 50. And the real need to make those trades at max value is that the Twins pitching pipeline is rather barren and we really do not have a lot of other methods of adding to the pitching core. We have to make smart draft picks for pitching, develop those players and then add smart prospects from trades, such as getting Joe Ryan in the first place, to fill out the staff. Where we need to be positive is believing that our core group of prospects that are just pushing to the majors now will have what it takes to become a competitive team over the near far term (2-3 years). Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lee, Diaw, Lackey, Tait, Tinney, Mendez, Gonzales, Roden, Keaschall. I think there is a lot of data that suggests we should be positive with this group. If we brought up that entire group like the Twins did in 1982 with the Hrbek-Gaetti-Brunansky-Viola cohort, took their lumps, found out which of these guys pans out and which does not, then bring in the second wave Gagne-Puckett, And then make smart moves in trades (Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven) and lower end free agents hopefully we can form a truly competitive team. And while people have made comments that baseball today is not what it was in 1982, one factor that is different is that if we "tank" for a year or two that just adds top level draft picks to our system. But in that era without signing bonus slot values it was very difficult for the Twins to sign their picks. In 1983 the Twins failed to sign the #1 player picked in the draft, Tim Belcher and their 2nd round pick, #29 Bill Swift. That was a major blow and I also believe it made them gun shy from drafting players they feared would not sign.

First, if you look at that proposed roster it is not a) good enough to compete for any meaningful post-season level or b) enough of a rebuild to quickly transition to becoming a competitive team. It is more of the half way measures that simply keeps the team in the 70-80 win range with only dreams of sneaking into the playoffs as a team that will get smacked out of the playoffs (over and over again) in the first round, In the 21st century the Twins have made the playoffs ten times. They have 7 total playoff wins, with 4 of those wins occuring in 2002. Second, the payroll configuration listed is what I would state is the maximum from the existing players on the roster. I doubt they tender both Ober and Kremer. I doubt they go with a $2 million backup catcher in Jackson. It is highly doubtful they bring back Banda at even $2.3 million. I will state it again, and when you look at this roster it is blatantly obvious: The Twins erred when they did not move Buxton and Ryan in the previous offseason, and Jeffers and others at the deadline. Now the trade return value of these guys is substantially lower than it was at the beginning of 2026, they are a full year older, and both are struggling with injuries which severely impacted their performances in the 2nd half of the season. Jeffers will be gone as a free agent only bringing back a comp pick and Larnach isn't even being tendered in this scenario. Trading these guys brings back high level prospects that would then fill out the rebuild roster. I think their decisions have made this roster about the best they can do, and we will be in for another fun 77 win season.

His base salary is $11 million. The $12.666 includes the amortization of a $5 million signing bonus that was included in the $33 million contract.

Ryan, Clemens, and Bradley are 100%. Then I think they have a couple of either or decisions to make: Kremer or Ober which I put at Kremer 80% and 20% they tender both. Lewis or Larnach: I think Lewis 80% with 10% they tender both. At a low cost, Tommy Nance is closer to 100% than he is to 0%. Cole Sands and Anthony Banda are very close to 0%.

The real problem is even if there is a lot of intent for ownership to step up their spending, they have put the team into a situation where in the coming offseason they simply will not have enough options to get to even average spending in major league baseball. And, I think that the team really missed their opportunity to sell high on veteran players like Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers, and even Larnach. The trade values of Buxton and Ryan have taken major steps backwards, and Jeffers as a free agent can only generate a comp pick, about half of his value if traded at the deadline. Lets say the Twins ownership wants to incrementally spend $40 million, plus $20 million to retain Ryan Jeffers. How do they even do it in ways that will improve the team? The Twins will have a hard sell convincing players who have other options to come here and the biggest factor is they have nickled and dimed their way to be the bottom feeder of the league.

Not. A. High. Bar. I can see many controllable scenarios in which they keep both Kremer and Ober, simply because they have no one else to fill in the starting rotation. Our pitching pipeline is pretty bare. But, if they decide to go with just one of those two players, I would chose Kremer. In his time with the Twins he pitched better than Ober and would probably be cheaper. If they chose to go with just one, they would non-tender the other.

I think Taj Bradley is the only pitcher that you can pencil in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2027. Pablo Lopez? Wishful thinking. Its not out of the realm of possibility, but pitchers who miss significant time in 2025 and then a full season in 2026 due to elbow problems are not guaranteed returning to the major leagues and pitching at the same level they once did. That is why you look at certain careers of solid pitchers, who then suddenly bounce around the league with a few innings here one year and few the next. Joe Ryan? This is much more probable but there is also a trade element. But, I would add you are looking at a 30 year old pitcher who the past two seasons has faded in the 2nd half of the season. In 2026 Ryan had a 2.85 ERA in the first half of the season, a 6.82 in the 2nd. Similarly in 2025 he had 2.72 ERA first half, 4.67 ERA in the 2nd. Too much of my posting are very negative, but I think these collapses are a bad sign that could predict a pitcher that is coming into a streak of arm problems. I believe Kremer will be penciled in the rotation in 2027. I think his arbitration number will be much lower than Bailey Ober's. In fact, I believe it is very likely that the Twins will not offer Ober arbitration because they do not want the risk of Ober getting a value above the $5.2 million he received this year. So I think it is highly probable they just let him walk. But it is also possible both Kremer and Ober are in the rotation to start the season because there really isn't any other pitchers in the pipeline that are on track to be added to the roster. Riley Quick is still at least a year away and that is probably the guy who is the top of the list. So Bradley-Ryan will be the top 2. They will pray Lopez can actually pitch but it is doubtful (and I would not be surprised if he starts the season on the 60 day DL then rehab back through the minors). Then Kremer. Then winners between Matthews-Prielipp-Abel and maybe even Festa.

The percentage of players rejecting upward trades is about 0% in the entire history of the league. Now, if we were trading him to a non-contender I would think otherwise. The fact is that the best thing for Byron Buxton's career would be traded from a low level team like the Twins to a power team.

You make a trade with a contending team and Buxton would have agreed to it. 100% guaranteed. Like I explained, it is one thing to state "I want to be a Twin forever". It is another to really be confronted with reality of playing for a team that is going to contend for the World Series and will make you a true star player, rather than an unknown toiling for a team in the minor league of major league baseball. I get why Buxton would say he does not want to be traded, but in the end he would have moved. Competitiveness, financial opportunities, and career opportunities. Only a fool would stay with the Minnesota Twins when they have the opportunity to move to the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, or Phillies. At the beginning of 2026 Buxton could have brought a haul of players to the Twins, including at least one top level pitching prospect. Given the state of our pitching pipeline that would have been a major benefit to rebuild this team into a real contender. Joe Ryan could have returned the same value.

The Twins made a huge mistake in not trading Buxton in the offseason. He was coming off one of his best seasons of his career and the 2nd most games played in a season. He still was a valuable 5 tool player and for a contending team on a very favorable contract that at the start of 2026 had three full years of team control. The entire no-trade saga could have been easily overridden by trading him to a contending team that really wanted him. Its one thing to say "I want to stay a Twin", it is another to consider being traded to the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, or even the Cubs and becoming part of a team that would be good and push Byron into the limelight. But the Twins PRETENDED to be contenders, held onto all of their trade assets, and frankly they all lost value in 2026. Buxton, another injury with a surgery that is going to require long term rehab. Ryan, with a second consecutive season of fading in the 2nd half. Jeffers, whose value is down to a Comp B draft pick. If you made a quantitative measure of Buxton and Ryan's trade value in the offseason of 2026 and then in 2027, their value is less than HALF of what you could have got. And I would argue a Comp B pick is about half of what Jeffers value would have been at the trade deadline. Again, all to PRETEND to be a contender and 9 games under water at the 159 game mark. If the team is going to put $60-70 million in incremental payroll for the 2027 season, then perhaps this will be somewhat water under the bridge. But the probability of them increasing payroll by that substantial amount is very low, starting with the fact that Minnesota is not considered a high value destination for major league baseball free agents.

I only played high school baseball, but all through my career I was a hit by pitch expert. I was really skinny but wore a jersey two size too big for me. Getting on base was the objective!!! Most of those Expos guys you mention were there because of Rusty Staub! I was a much bigger baseball fan as a kid than I am now.

22 is nothing. IN 1971 Ron Hunt was hit by 50 pitches. He led the major leagues in HBP 7 years in a row. It was part of his hitting approach and they claim he wore extra baggy jerseys to enhance being hit.

Why would you waste your time on this nonsense?