LyleCole

So, why did the Twins call up Kaelen Culpepper and then sit him two games into his stint with the big league club? Is he injured again?

Lets make it clear that the Varland issue is not a mistake of being market sellers at the deadline. It is a mistake of player development and evaluation. When you draft a player into your development system your team should be the biggest expert on their potential. Minnesota developed Varland as a starting pitcher through the lower minors and the statistical results were very encouraging. But they just could not seem to get Louis over the hump as a starter in the higher minors and his three stints from 2022-2024 with the Twins as a starter. They finally moved him to the bullpen in 2025 and he was getting solid results, with a 2.02 ERA (what is surprising is that Varland's K/9 in these 49 innings of relief were the lowest of his career, 8.6). My view on why the Twins traded him was that they viewed Varland as a failed starter and never bought into his role in the bullpen. They considered his statistical results in 2025 as one of those statistical blips that can happen in the careers of relief pitchers and believed they were selling Varland high at the deadline. And as with the Sam Darnold saga with the VIkings, just because a player has success with another franchise does not mean he would have success with yours. Darnold would have struggled with the Vikings offensive line failures, and it is doubtful that Minnesota would have used Varland as a late inning closer like the Blue Jays. LIke I said, I just do not think they believed in him in that role. And, before we short circuit this trade, lets see how Kendry Rojas develops. Varland is 28 years old and he reached the majors when he was 25. Rojas is 5 years younger and has already touched the major leagues and shown some talent at that level. One issue I have with Rojas though, like Varland, will the Twins make up their mind if he is a starter or a reliever?

I wish they all could make it. Gonsalves was really good at the beginning of his minor league career. Did he wreck his arm in 2019?

No on all of them. They are all just names from the past.

This was a half measure. I get people are excited that they did not dump players and actually acquired some arms that improves the pitching staff. That is absolutely true. But none of the acquisitions are from the top tier of available players. Jeff Hoffman, 3 or 4 years ago? Yeah. Today, he has some question marks although he has pitched better in the 2nd half. Kremer? He was a 4th type of guy most of his career but his 2026 season is down. Same with AJ Minter. We are buying these guys not just low, but career level lows hoping they can turn it around. And, there are legitimate questions about whether not trading Larnach and Jeffers, and even Joe Ryan, are in the long term interest of the team. Sure, not trading them at the 2026 deadline will help this team with a chance to squeak into a 3rd wild card slot (and, perhaps win the very weak division). But I for one believe that is not the goal ownership should be seeking. That is a half measure, and frankly, I think ownership has rested on these half laurels and used them as an excuse not to spend money on the team: "We made the playoffs (and got bounced) what more do you want?"

This is another misapplication of statistics. The reason is that the magic number in this scenario is 1.0. The extra 0.5 runs is meaningless. TO not lose the game you must prevent ONE run from scoring. What makes this scenario misapplied is that because you have to prevent the single run, with one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd you need to play the infield in and your pitcher cannot let the ball get in the air with any depth. But if you walk to load the bases, then the infield can play at DP depth which eliminates the balls that would get through when the infield is playing in, brings into play the double play ending the threat, and allows the force out at home plate on balls hit to the corner IF (see Hrbek in World Series) and the home to first double play. The fly ball scenarios are identical because a deep enough fly ball to the OF would score the runner from 3rd in both scenarios. Personally, I think the optimal strategy facing the #8 hitter with a .200 BA and .611 OPS is to pitch to him and see if you can get ahead in the count. Make him swing at the pitcher's pitch. If you fall behind, lets say 2-0, then walk him but not intentionally. Throw 2 balls outside the strike zone, again hoping to induce a swing.

They are not really "spending money". They made the minimum moves to keep them in contention for the last wild card playoff spot and perhaps even a division title in a division that will probably be won with a near .500 record. WIth respect to money, they are still tens of millions of dollars below the median salary for major league baseball. And all of these moves are really just window dressing if the offseason next season is just the same as this past offseason where signing Josh Bell was the big move. The Hoffman trade is not a bad trade for a team that can absorb $12.7 million in payroll next season. I think that Dasan Hill is a prospect, but he has a very serious lack of control and command, averaging 7.4 BB/9 this season and 6.5/9 for his total minor league career. I think he is the only prospect that I would term "high marginal" because he will not last long with that level of control. (I think high marginal is a 10-12-15% type chance of making it). Klein is a low marginal prospect (I think of this level as about a 5% of becoming a productive major league player). Dameury Pena is a prospect I know little about, but he seems to be a diminuative infielder without much pop in his bat, but high contact skills and reasonable OBP. If you look at his stats the first part of the year in FT Myers they do not look all that bad: slash 322/393/381 with 27 walks and just 10 strikeouts. But, of his 77 hits, only 10 of them were XBH: 7 2B 1 3B 1 HR. WIth that lack of power it will be difficult for him to keep up that OPS level as he moves through the baseball levels because more advanced pitching will not be afraid of him. We obviously did not make a major move, so we kept all of our best prospects with perhaps losing Hall who was in the top 15, along with Reyes who was a rising Latin player (is that term still used anymore????). But it was a cheap cost to acquire a two pitchers with team control in 2027 and a good left handed reliever that is a rental (but perhaps he returns if we invest in the offseason). We still have Rodriguez, Tait and Quick along with the guys that are probably untouchable.

He is under contract for $12,666,667 in 2027.

I repeat myself, but the Ryan Jeffers decision is an easy one in reality. It is a simple A/B question. A: If the Twins ownership plans on being really competitive and is willing to pay Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, AND add a couple of other free agents to make a real competitive team then do not trade him at the deadline. Then offer the QO to Jeffers and work on a multi-year deal in the offseason and they can add a boat load of talent just by moving our payroll up to league average. B. If they do not plan on competing to sign him, or Joe Ryan in the future, or add additional talent that cost real money, then trade them right now. Simple. It is all controlled by Twins ownership. THey decide on A or B, and the front office then works to get the best deals. What will happen is they will not do A and they will not do B. They will continue to sign low end salvage type of players to low end contracts to try to "compete" for that last wild card spot. We would be better off blowing this up and rebuilding from the scratch, tanking to get even more talent in the upcoming draft. And, frankly, that might be the only route to building a truly competitive team but that takes front office talent, patience, and often some luck.

I would do Rodriguez, Tait, and Winokur.

Typical Twins move. Of course, if you get teh Dean Kremer of 2022-2025 you are getting a pretty solid 3is-4th pitcher in the rotation and a guy who if healthy you can get 170 innings out of with reasonable results. From 2022-2025 he made 106 starts and ate up 598 innings with an ERA of 3.96. But that is a lot of iffffs with limited chances of him actually helping the team this year or next. It is another bargain basement acquisition based on those hopes rather than investing in quality. I will say that the two pick ups help our playoff probability, but that is basically backing into the playoffs, bot advancing as a solid contender. I think the fans of the Twins, long suffering fans of the Twins for that matter, deserve better.

Jusr watched Reyes play. Tall skinny kid with good bat speed. Has great stats, but a long way to go.

Went to the game tonight with the excitement of seeing Lackey and Tinney. Wasn't much of a show. Observations 1. Vahn Lackey did not have a very good game. He DHd and batted second. Struck out looking on a cutter barely on the plate in first AB. Second AB just got under the ball and flew out to the LF warning track. Third AB, the Cardinals had brought in this junk ball thrower. Just about everything off speed with a 89 mph fastball once every 10 pitches. 72 mph. 78mph. 84mph. 72 mph. The Miracle Mussel hitters had a hard time adjusting (the starting pitcher was clocking 99 mph) and everything seemed to go to a full count. But Lackey chased a pitch out of the zone for a swinging strikeout. THen in the 4th AB against what I would say is an average A level pitcher he squibbed a little roller to the pitcher. I will say that the many of the players have been playing professional minor league baseball for a whole season to date and now these college draft picks are stepping in with a wood bat and catching up. 2. Carson Tinney caught tonights game. I remember when Ryan Jeffers was in Ft Myers thinking he was a big damn catcher. Tinney is even bigger. The home plate umpire wasn't the tallest guy and I was questioning if he would even be able to see over Carson. Carson is very selective at the plate and drew at least one walk. And while I admit I am not a baseball swing expert, I do not like how he drops his hands almost to his waist in preparing for the pitch. I don't think that gives him enough plate coverage and he is going to struggle getting to strikes thrown by professional pitchers. WIth an aluminum bat against NCAA pitchers he could get away with this. As a catcher he seemed to present a nice frame and he had really nice throws to 2nd during warm ups. But, the one stolen base attempt was a hard offspeed pitch to handle and he bobbled the ball without a throw. Then later in the game, the Cardinals game winning run was scored on a play in which the throw from right field easily beat the runner, but it took a hop before the plate and Carson took his eyes off it and it hopped off his glove. 3, Quenton Young is a massive kid. But he really struggles with contact and off speed stuff. But for a big guy he made a nice play to his right on a well hit ball that he short hopped well into foul terriotry and made a nice throw to get the runner. I will say this. For Q to make it, he needs to get into much, much better shape. He has that Young knock knee stance and just does not look to be well conditioned. It might be appearance, but while he swings hard it just isn;t all there for him. He needs to spend the offseason on a high end planned nutrition and workout regimen. 4. Matt Barr came into the game with a poor ERA but he looked pretty good through 4 innings. He threw 92-93 fastball, 86-87 slurvey slider with pretty decent movement, and about 80 mph curve which he threw for several strikes. He overthrew a couple of pitches when he worked too hard to get a perfect pitch and got under a curve ball or two. When he threw with his repeated mechanics he was pretty decent and tonight that was most of the game. Only one of the 4 hits was a legitimate well hit ball, the other 3 were knubbers that just got over the infield. And I do not think he walked a batter through 4 innings. I think he needs to add 2 mph and a bit better shape to his fastball (i was literally directly behind home plate, Section 108, Row 2, Seat 6) and get a bit more command of his off speed pitches. WIth that I think he can advance but he might not get enough command to be a major league starter and he doesn't have enough velocity to move to the pen as a high end reliever. 5. Otherwise, the only other players I think are reasonable prospects are the Venezuelan kid Luis Fragoza who played RF and Dominican LF Jhomnardo Reyes. Fragoza did not have a great night and struggled against the junk baller, but he seemed to have a professional approach for a 19 year old kid. HE is listed at 6-1, 160 but he has moved well past that 160 lbs range. and is well built. I would guess he is at at least 190 lbs and his .557 slugging percentage shows he packs a punch. Reyes is 18 years old (-3.1 years to competition) and a much leaner kid at 6-3. He batted cleanup and, again not a great night but Reyes has bat speed that will make him advance through the minors. They still have a long ways to go though. 6. Minor league baseball has really changed. Part of it is I just moved back to Ft Myers and this was the first live game for me when it was a A, not the A+ level league. The rosters of these low minor leagues seem to be filled with very inexpensive Latin players and a sprinkling of draft picks. It still is a fun experience.

On paper this is a good move. I am not sure what the reality will be though. It is the rental of an older left handed relief pitcher who has only pitched 68 innings over the last three seasons. His K/9 rate is under 8 (7.8) which is way below his career 10.7/9 indicating perhaps reduced velocity. He has compensated for this with a very low BB rate/9 that is under 1.0, far below his career level of 3.1/9. This move seems to me to be the type I would expect out of this ownership and is a continuation of their low end team building with minimized cost. Unless there is a LOT more to come, this is just a move designed to perhaps, maybe, potentially, possibly allow us to sneak into the last wild card spot in a very weak playoff race.

The danger for the Twins is if Jeffers ACCEPTS the QO. Then they have a $23 million catcher on a one year contract with all the risk. Then they either have to pony up on an extended contract or have him leave for nothing in 2028 with each year adding to the risk of injury, etc as he gets older and more expensive. The real problem with what I see as the Twins approach is it is going to be more of the same half way stuff we have seen. If they "BUY" they will add a cheap relief pitcher and call it a day. Then in the offseason they will not be able to retain Jeffers (unless he offers a significant home town discount) and will add the same bottom end replacement players as they have done in years past. GO in all the way one scenario or the other. IF we are not adding at least a middle of the rotation starting pitcher and a quality relief pitcher, plus perhaps a right handed bat, with the full intentions of signing Jeffers in the offseason and Joe Ryan the next, along with perhaps another quality free agent where we are weak, then why bother. We would just be competing for a weak playoff spot. If not, then trade everything that has value that will not be part of the future rebuild for players that will be part of the future rebuild.