LyleCole

I did not express an opinion on public subsidies of sports franchises. However, since you brought the point up the value that the public gets from the money they invest in these stadiums is pennies on the dollar. You can use the Warehouse District as an example, but for the most part this is just shifting investment from one area of the city to the another that benefits new investors and hurts previous investors. One easy way to view this is to think about a new "convention center". Proponents of such venues point to the massive revenues such an investment will yield, but usually these projections fall short because the incremental revenues created by the new building are small compared to the revenues that already existed. I do not oppose public investment in infrastructure that is based on a realistic return on those dollars. I also believe the city-county-state receive some value in the architectural value of these buildings. But the $1 billion plus they have invested on the Vikings stadium cannot come close to paying for the investment.

Yeah. Normally I am all for ownership and profits. That is how innovations and high paying jobs are created. Without the incentives for capital formation our lifestyles would not be much greater than that of Medieval times, hand to mouth subsistence living. But high level professional sports ownership is different because the franchise is limited. There are only 30 major league baseball teams. These corporations trade at multiples to cash flow that are very high because not every billionaire gets to own one no matter how much they want to. So there should be an obligation to the fans/customers of these special types of business, which are also, btw, heavily subsidized by local governments, to create a product that maximizes the fans value. The Pohlads have never done this. Nor did the Griffiths. The fact is, Minnesota is not a sports friendly environment. Our local revenues are minimal (see all of the problems getting the local sports broadcasting done for the region). And although the market size is not small, it is the 15th largest television market in the United States, the value is just not there. And I think our local ownership of all of the sports franchises reflects this. It even carries into college level athletics. One of the pieces of evidence I present in support of this thesis is look at the states in the US that have only one D1 FBS basketball and football teams. Minnesota is by far the largest. Minnesota has 80% more population than Iowa, yet Iowa fields 2 D1 football teams. Minnesota has 700k more people than Alabama, yet that state has 6 D1 FBS football teams.

I would not offer a QO to Jeffers. It would be a disaster if he accepted the QO and the return of a compensatory draft pick isn't enough to take the risk. Instead, as I have said many times, the Twins need to decide if they want to be a real major league baseball franchise or just some rinky dink operation. If they decide on the former, then what their approach with Jeffers should be is to offer him a competitive offer and get him to stay in MN. If they decide the later, then just let him walk. The idea that they "get nothing" in that case, and if they decide on the latter, not trading him at the trade deadline was another in a string of huge mistakes.

65 years of history. 125 years if you want to include the full Washington Senators franchise.

I would not put that past the Twins....

Here is my bold prediction: The Twins will do everything exactly the same as they have done that last 15 years. 1. They will address the bullpen exactly the same old way. They will add 2-3 arms like Anthony Banda and Taylor Rodgers, spending a maximum of $2 million on them and total budget under $6 million. 2. They will find a couple of 30 plus year old guys that are mediocre at best and sign them to a 2 year deal that has a year two buyout, all for under $15 million. 3. They will not be bold in promoting any other prospects who did not come up in 2026, and might even send Emmanual Rodriguez back to AAA for more seasoning. Oh, they will talk the talk about building up the team, but in the end their caution and cheapness will prevail, and they will produce similar results as 2026, and many of the years before.

The Twins could have eliminated many of them. Why break Spring Training with Outman on your roster? Tristan Gray, same question. The Twins have been very reluctant to move their prospects to their major league roster. I am not sure if it is a case of them feeling that the guys are "not ready" or whatever, but the fact is, they seldom arrive at the MLB level "ready". But there can never be "perfection" except in the case of some of the top level prospects, and even they usually need some seasoning at the MLB level. But, most likely, in 2027, (if they do not resign Jeffers) the Twins will have a throw away backup catcher behind Caratini (two candidates for worse player) rather than give a guy like Diaw an opportunity to develop at the major league level. Add in a couple of low level backup positonal guys and bargain basement relievers, those will be your candidates for Least Valuable player in 2027. It is almost set in stone. If I ran the team, I would have Diaw as my starting catcher, play him some in the OF, and even 1B. Develop that professional hitter with defensive flexibility. If he does worst than 0.0 WAR we are actually ahead of the game because then we know. Not all prospects work out. Not all prospects can come close to their success in the minors. When you are rebuilding, the sooner you find out that information, the better.

Again, I think the word crisis is an overstatement but what you present is basically impossible. For the Twins to become anywhere competitive they have only four real choices for roster development: 1. Internal player development ; 2. Prospects acquired by trading (potential) high cost veterans ; 3. Minor free agent signings and ; 4. Minor trades. There isn't a major free agent signing that is coming down the pike, and one reason for that is even if ownership was willing to spend that kind of money there are few high end free agents that want to come to the franchise in Minnesota. And your last statement is a lame argument. Of course, no one knows for certain if the 2028 staff will be better or worse. When you are dealing with decisions that involve the future there is uncertainty. HOWEVER, the lack of certainty does not mean you ignore objective probabilities, and the probability of the 2028 starting rotation being better than the 2026 one is very low. Why? Almost the PROJECTED starting rotation would be the same, with the likely exception of Joe Ryan. When evaluating the projected 2028 rotation one easy way of thinking of how it will place the Twins relative to the best teams in major league baseball is to look at the 1-2-3-4-5 type status of the rotation. Taj Bradley had a pretty good first full season as a starter, but as a #1 starter is he on the level of the existing competitive teams? The answer is almost certainly no. Then their other guys are at least "one rotation spot lower than what a competitive staff would have them i.e. our 2nd-3rd starter would be a 4th starter on a high end roation. Our 4th starter, the 5th. And the balance of the rotation would probably not be part of any real competitive teams rotation. And, as I have pointed out, are there really any high end prospects that follow up those guys? Maybe Riley Quick? But he struggled to find the plate this season. I think Rojas has some potential, maybe the highest of any of the pitchers with rookie status still intact, but the Twins cannot seem to finalize a development path for him. Their organization seems to not really be able to develop young high school arms (Dasan Hill, Charlie Soto) and is filled with mid-level college arms that they cannot get over the AA hurdle. And, we have not even come close to addressing the bullpen.

You are counting on high upside for everybody and no injuries, and even those hopes cannot fill the entire pitching roster. And based on the actual evidence we have seen, while you can put out a rotation with Abel, Matthews, and Prielipp plus Bradley and some #5 starter, that really isn't a good enough rotation to be a real contender. That rotation isn't as good as our current rotation.

While the word "crisis" is poorly chosen, the Twins have a serious lack of talent in their pitching pipeline. I have pointed this out several times when I have posited that the Twins should have entered rebuilding mode before the 2026 season, trading Ryan and Buxton to improve the quality and depth of their pitching prospects. What the Twins have is a significant imbalance between the maturation of their positional prospects (Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lackey, and others) and their pitching prospects. The most likely result of all of this will be a continuation of mediocre outcomes and a team that is not a true contender to win the World Series, or even a playoff series, or even a playoff game.

If Johan is being disqualified because of the sexual that is completely unfair. The entire incident occurred in Fort Myers in the Renaissance community where Santana had a home. All of the real evidence indicated that this was consensual sex. I know people who live in the community and they stated that this was not the first time this woman has had these claims.

People can SAY anything. Of course he says he wants to stay in Minnesota. But, when confronted with a huge upgrade in teams and the chance to play in the World Series, he would forget everything he ever said. And if he didn't, then you have to wonder about his competitiveness level. So, in a way, you can believe him and not believe him simultaneously. "Byron we have a deal to trade you to teh LA Dodgers do you opt out of your no trade?" Split second later "Of course." But, Byron we have a deal to trade you to the Montreal Expos, do you reject that trade" is a much different proposition.

Sure. And again as I said in another post, if he would have been traded to an actual contender this last offseason in which he could become a well known player competing in meaningful games rather than a good player in MLB backwater city: the "I want to stay in Minnesota" claim would have been over. Byron Buxton playing for the Dodgers is a superstar. Byron Buxton playing for the Twins is "who is he" except for die hard fans. THe probability that Buxton would have rejected a trade to LA, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Red Sox was 0%.

Positive thinking is not analytical thinking. And it is absolutely correct to point out mistakes that have happened in the past. The mistake they made at the beginning of 2026 was not trading Buxton and Joe Ryan. If you set their relative trade value to 100 in the offseason of 2026, I would argue that Buxton's trade value is now about 40 and Ryan's 50. Less than half. I would argue that Ryan Jeffer's trade value relative to the trade deadline is also 50. And the real need to make those trades at max value is that the Twins pitching pipeline is rather barren and we really do not have a lot of other methods of adding to the pitching core. We have to make smart draft picks for pitching, develop those players and then add smart prospects from trades, such as getting Joe Ryan in the first place, to fill out the staff. Where we need to be positive is believing that our core group of prospects that are just pushing to the majors now will have what it takes to become a competitive team over the near far term (2-3 years). Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lee, Diaw, Lackey, Tait, Tinney, Mendez, Gonzales, Roden, Keaschall. I think there is a lot of data that suggests we should be positive with this group. If we brought up that entire group like the Twins did in 1982 with the Hrbek-Gaetti-Brunansky-Viola cohort, took their lumps, found out which of these guys pans out and which does not, then bring in the second wave Gagne-Puckett, And then make smart moves in trades (Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven) and lower end free agents hopefully we can form a truly competitive team. And while people have made comments that baseball today is not what it was in 1982, one factor that is different is that if we "tank" for a year or two that just adds top level draft picks to our system. But in that era without signing bonus slot values it was very difficult for the Twins to sign their picks. In 1983 the Twins failed to sign the #1 player picked in the draft, Tim Belcher and their 2nd round pick, #29 Bill Swift. That was a major blow and I also believe it made them gun shy from drafting players they feared would not sign.

First, if you look at that proposed roster it is not a) good enough to compete for any meaningful post-season level or b) enough of a rebuild to quickly transition to becoming a competitive team. It is more of the half way measures that simply keeps the team in the 70-80 win range with only dreams of sneaking into the playoffs as a team that will get smacked out of the playoffs (over and over again) in the first round, In the 21st century the Twins have made the playoffs ten times. They have 7 total playoff wins, with 4 of those wins occuring in 2002. Second, the payroll configuration listed is what I would state is the maximum from the existing players on the roster. I doubt they tender both Ober and Kremer. I doubt they go with a $2 million backup catcher in Jackson. It is highly doubtful they bring back Banda at even $2.3 million. I will state it again, and when you look at this roster it is blatantly obvious: The Twins erred when they did not move Buxton and Ryan in the previous offseason, and Jeffers and others at the deadline. Now the trade return value of these guys is substantially lower than it was at the beginning of 2026, they are a full year older, and both are struggling with injuries which severely impacted their performances in the 2nd half of the season. Jeffers will be gone as a free agent only bringing back a comp pick and Larnach isn't even being tendered in this scenario. Trading these guys brings back high level prospects that would then fill out the rebuild roster. I think their decisions have made this roster about the best they can do, and we will be in for another fun 77 win season.

His base salary is $11 million. The $12.666 includes the amortization of a $5 million signing bonus that was included in the $33 million contract.

Ryan, Clemens, and Bradley are 100%. Then I think they have a couple of either or decisions to make: Kremer or Ober which I put at Kremer 80% and 20% they tender both. Lewis or Larnach: I think Lewis 80% with 10% they tender both. At a low cost, Tommy Nance is closer to 100% than he is to 0%. Cole Sands and Anthony Banda are very close to 0%.

The real problem is even if there is a lot of intent for ownership to step up their spending, they have put the team into a situation where in the coming offseason they simply will not have enough options to get to even average spending in major league baseball. And, I think that the team really missed their opportunity to sell high on veteran players like Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers, and even Larnach. The trade values of Buxton and Ryan have taken major steps backwards, and Jeffers as a free agent can only generate a comp pick, about half of his value if traded at the deadline. Lets say the Twins ownership wants to incrementally spend $40 million, plus $20 million to retain Ryan Jeffers. How do they even do it in ways that will improve the team? The Twins will have a hard sell convincing players who have other options to come here and the biggest factor is they have nickled and dimed their way to be the bottom feeder of the league.

Not. A. High. Bar. I can see many controllable scenarios in which they keep both Kremer and Ober, simply because they have no one else to fill in the starting rotation. Our pitching pipeline is pretty bare. But, if they decide to go with just one of those two players, I would chose Kremer. In his time with the Twins he pitched better than Ober and would probably be cheaper. If they chose to go with just one, they would non-tender the other.

I think Taj Bradley is the only pitcher that you can pencil in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2027. Pablo Lopez? Wishful thinking. Its not out of the realm of possibility, but pitchers who miss significant time in 2025 and then a full season in 2026 due to elbow problems are not guaranteed returning to the major leagues and pitching at the same level they once did. That is why you look at certain careers of solid pitchers, who then suddenly bounce around the league with a few innings here one year and few the next. Joe Ryan? This is much more probable but there is also a trade element. But, I would add you are looking at a 30 year old pitcher who the past two seasons has faded in the 2nd half of the season. In 2026 Ryan had a 2.85 ERA in the first half of the season, a 6.82 in the 2nd. Similarly in 2025 he had 2.72 ERA first half, 4.67 ERA in the 2nd. Too much of my posting are very negative, but I think these collapses are a bad sign that could predict a pitcher that is coming into a streak of arm problems. I believe Kremer will be penciled in the rotation in 2027. I think his arbitration number will be much lower than Bailey Ober's. In fact, I believe it is very likely that the Twins will not offer Ober arbitration because they do not want the risk of Ober getting a value above the $5.2 million he received this year. So I think it is highly probable they just let him walk. But it is also possible both Kremer and Ober are in the rotation to start the season because there really isn't any other pitchers in the pipeline that are on track to be added to the roster. Riley Quick is still at least a year away and that is probably the guy who is the top of the list. So Bradley-Ryan will be the top 2. They will pray Lopez can actually pitch but it is doubtful (and I would not be surprised if he starts the season on the 60 day DL then rehab back through the minors). Then Kremer. Then winners between Matthews-Prielipp-Abel and maybe even Festa.

The percentage of players rejecting upward trades is about 0% in the entire history of the league. Now, if we were trading him to a non-contender I would think otherwise. The fact is that the best thing for Byron Buxton's career would be traded from a low level team like the Twins to a power team.

You make a trade with a contending team and Buxton would have agreed to it. 100% guaranteed. Like I explained, it is one thing to state "I want to be a Twin forever". It is another to really be confronted with reality of playing for a team that is going to contend for the World Series and will make you a true star player, rather than an unknown toiling for a team in the minor league of major league baseball. I get why Buxton would say he does not want to be traded, but in the end he would have moved. Competitiveness, financial opportunities, and career opportunities. Only a fool would stay with the Minnesota Twins when they have the opportunity to move to the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, or Phillies. At the beginning of 2026 Buxton could have brought a haul of players to the Twins, including at least one top level pitching prospect. Given the state of our pitching pipeline that would have been a major benefit to rebuild this team into a real contender. Joe Ryan could have returned the same value.

The Twins made a huge mistake in not trading Buxton in the offseason. He was coming off one of his best seasons of his career and the 2nd most games played in a season. He still was a valuable 5 tool player and for a contending team on a very favorable contract that at the start of 2026 had three full years of team control. The entire no-trade saga could have been easily overridden by trading him to a contending team that really wanted him. Its one thing to say "I want to stay a Twin", it is another to consider being traded to the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, or even the Cubs and becoming part of a team that would be good and push Byron into the limelight. But the Twins PRETENDED to be contenders, held onto all of their trade assets, and frankly they all lost value in 2026. Buxton, another injury with a surgery that is going to require long term rehab. Ryan, with a second consecutive season of fading in the 2nd half. Jeffers, whose value is down to a Comp B draft pick. If you made a quantitative measure of Buxton and Ryan's trade value in the offseason of 2026 and then in 2027, their value is less than HALF of what you could have got. And I would argue a Comp B pick is about half of what Jeffers value would have been at the trade deadline. Again, all to PRETEND to be a contender and 9 games under water at the 159 game mark. If the team is going to put $60-70 million in incremental payroll for the 2027 season, then perhaps this will be somewhat water under the bridge. But the probability of them increasing payroll by that substantial amount is very low, starting with the fact that Minnesota is not considered a high value destination for major league baseball free agents.

I only played high school baseball, but all through my career I was a hit by pitch expert. I was really skinny but wore a jersey two size too big for me. Getting on base was the objective!!! Most of those Expos guys you mention were there because of Rusty Staub! I was a much bigger baseball fan as a kid than I am now.

22 is nothing. IN 1971 Ron Hunt was hit by 50 pitches. He led the major leagues in HBP 7 years in a row. It was part of his hitting approach and they claim he wore extra baggy jerseys to enhance being hit.