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LyleCole

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Everything posted by LyleCole

  1. LyleCole
    Well, what is "optimism". In fact, I think the "optimistic" view of the Twins 2026 is disastrous. Why you may be asking? Because that simply isn't good enough. The BEST CASE scenario for this team is an 86 win season and squeaking a Central Division title our by one game and then getting destroyed in the playoffs. That is if everyone remains healthy, they get a lot of luck (for example, the other Central teams have bad seasons), every player improves, several players have career years and did I say everyone remains healthy? But that approach just sets up the band aid, low economic pretend "contenders" approach for 2027 when everything might not go perfect. If they really wanted to be contenders, then why the sell off last season at the deadline? This half way approach is not how you build a championship team on a budget. That takes investment in losing to develop the players that can make you a contender. You build the solid core of the contending franchise around your prospects you either drafted or traded for (Hrbek, Gaetti, Puckett, Gagne, Brunansky, Viola, Bush, Larkin in 1987) (mostly same core in 1991 with Knoblauch, Tapani, Erickson and Aguilera). Then add the smart additions that fill in the gaps where your prospects did not develop (Reardon, Gladden, Smalley, Bert, Reardon, Berenger in 1987) (Mack, Chili, Harpe, Jack Morris, Big Train Willis). That is the only approach to winning in Minnesota. I would add they almost did it in the Mauer-Mourneu-Hunter-Santana-Nathan years but they just could not plug enough of the gaps like the 87 and 91 team did.
  2. LyleCole
    This is just a continuation of the way the Twins have operated the last several years. They seem to have a major preference for replacement level players over their own developmental prospects. They have played this low budget pretend to be contenders just hoping that they can slip into the playoffs in the weakest division in baseball. It almost seems like a fear to bring their prospects up and see them fail. How many sub-200 hitters can a team roster over the years: Christian Vasquez, Mickey Gasper, James Outman, DaShawn Keirsey, Jonah Bride, Ryan Fitzgerald, our own Alan Roden, Jose Miranda, Caron McCusker (755 plate appearances in 2025) It seems like this team drools waiting for the next waiver wire player to be cast off by other teams. OOOOOOHHHH, he has a career .505 OPS!!!!! We need him. The 2026 season should have been a rebuild season from day 1. Instead, they made these half way moves and poor roster decisions in the pretense they can make the playoffs with 85 wins and pretend to the fans ownership/front office gives a .......
  3. LyleCole
    I am not advocating EVERY player be "rushed" to the major league level. But if you think Culpeper is a top prospect with talent then by all means especially since your roster is not competitive. It would be different if there was extreme talent and they could not get the game innings, but that is not the case. The other aspect is it isn't as if I am advocating this for a 19 year old player. Culpepper is 23. If you look at the MLB Top 100 Prospects (Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MiLB.com) look at the age that the players that have already made it to the MLB level. Trying to compete as a low payroll team is ridiculous and just prolongs the misery.
  4. LyleCole
    That this is a "battle" is a sad commentary on the Twins talent level and their farm team development over the past several years, and the cheapness of their ownership. That a manager has to consider two absolute bottom of the barrel players for a roster spot is damning. It would be different if the rest of the roster was stacked and this was just a decision on a specialty player. But it isnt. To me the real problem, however, is the Twins development strategies. I believe that players develop best at the major league level. I see no reason why we should be looking at these two guys on the active roster and sending Kaelen Culpepper down to the minors (just one example). Talent is talent, and if the player is truly talented they need to develop at the highest level possible. And playing time isn't an issue either. Culpepper can play every game rotating between the infielder positions (and maybe even some OF too). In the end, the only real evaluation of a player is at the Big League level. Many players have mashed the minor league circuit only to fail at the major league level. The quicker you get the read on the talent level, the better when you are developing. But the Twins constantly prefer to fool themselves that they are contenders and that these waiver wire replacement level players are what the fans deserve.
  5. LyleCole
    It would be very foolish to send Rodriguez back to the minor leagues. He has already proven himself at every stop in the lower leagues. Of course, the injury problem has been one of the biggest question marks against him but that issue in itself makes it imperative for him to start the season on the 25 roster. Why? Get him in action against major league pitching immediately and see how well he performs. With his very professional hitting approach he may do very well to start. But, if he is injured then you have that performance to guide his future. But if you send him to AAA to start the season and then he is hurt, it will further delay his major league debut. The Twins are just too conservative in their approach to prospects. The other issue is if we had real players ahead of him. If they keep Outman over Rodriguez after ER's spring success it is just foolish and more spinning of the wheels.
  6. LyleCole
    The key word is contributor. Right now if you stack Matthews, Sands, Festa, and Varland together you do not get "contributor". You get incomplete maybes. Jax was a 3rd round pick, not mid-round so he doesn't count. The only real measurable contributor has been Bailey Ober. The Twins management's ability to develop pitching has been significantly overstated.
  7. LyleCole
    I have a very simple rule about evaluating players: If their extra base hits are under 25% of their total hits they are going to struggle in the major leagues. I am not going to say there aren't exceptions and the corollary of the rule is not a rule (that would be if they have more than 25% of their hits go for extra bases they would NOT struggle in the major leagues). But if you do not have power major league pitchers arent going to worry about you. Such a hitter can be very selective and have a high walk rate in the lower minors but advanced pitchers are not going to walk them. Those pitchers will just blow their fastball by them not worrying about error. Houston had 6 extra base hits in the low minors out of 27 total hits last season. That is 22% of his total hits. Since he was brought up, Andrelton Simmons had 73 extra base hits out of a total 296 hits. That is 24.67% of his hits, right at the edge of the rule. But one thing that Simmons did in the major leagues was double his home run percentage of hits. He had just 7 home runs in the minors out, or 2.4% of his hits were home runs. In the majors he increased that level to 70 home runs out of 1169 hits, even though his overall MLB slugging percentage and OBP decreased about 10% from his minor league totals. I hope Marek can develop into a starting caliber shortstop for the Twins. I think, however, that his lack of power will make it very difficult to even reach the level of offensive production that can be acceptable given his defense.
  8. LyleCole
    "becoming another potential mid-round pick who turns into a contributor." I guess I am still waiting for this to be true for the team overall.
  9. LyleCole
    What I find ridiculous is worrying that Outman is out of options if he doesn't play well in Preseason. Only the Twins collect sub .550 OPS+ players like they are trophies. I pull for all of the players to have great seasons. I hope Outman comes down to Ft Myers and rips the cover off the ball and forces the Twins to keep him on the roster going back North. But if he just plays to his career norms, then who cares.
  10. LyleCole
    The problem with your position, which is what the front office has been doing for several years, is ownership simply will not provide enough payroll "to hang on to the stars" in enough quantity to meet those limited payroll objectives. And, an even more important problem, we just did not have these "stars". One of my biggest claims is that the reason to rebuild NOW is that the 2-3 stars the Twins have on their roster are probably at their peak trade value. Buxton played perhaps his best season ever. Maybe in 2021 he was "better", but he only played in 61 games that season. In 2025 he played in the 2nd most games in his career, 126, and only the 3rd time in 11 seasons (that is hard to believe it is that many) he played in more than 100 games. The probability that Byron Buxton has another injury season is pretty substantial, and if he is hurt again it will limit his trade value. Right now he is coming off a big season and his contract is very manageable for the contending teams that would want him. And many of those teams have high end prospects we can plug into the rebuild. Joe Ryan's trade value is huge because he has, at least for the high payroll teams, a modest contract and another year of team control. His trade value at this moment is humongous. Lopez' value is more limited because of his injury plagued 2025 season and Ober's is minimal. Therefore there is less downside risk of losing trade value, and in fact, with both of these potentially quality starters their trade value has 2026 upside. What other "stars" should we hang onto? Is Jeffers a star? Royce Lewis? For the right offer I would move Jeffers, but Lewis' value is low and I just keep him to see if we can get him back.
  11. LyleCole
    If they trade away Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez at what is probably their maximum value they would bring in a good batch of quality prospects. Add that to the prospects we already have, plus some of the existing players on the roster. You get those guys in the major league lineup, get them experience, weed out the ones that cannot perform, and add in some strategic signings/trades to fill whatever holes are left. That is the only real path available to a team like the Twins. It is a difficult one because the pieces have to work. I guess you can say that about the "no rebuild" team as I pointed out, but the prospect path of rebuilding now has the potential to be a longer term event. The risk the Twins have is that Buxton returns to his injuries and his trade value plummets. Ryan has the injury risk as well as losing a year of team control which makes his trade value huge. Lopez risks another injury plagued season and low return, although he like Bailey Ober might be more trade deadline type of values to move, hoping they bounce back. My lineup for the Twins would be OF Wallner-Jenkins-Rodriguez 3B Royce Lewis SS Brooks Lee 2B Luke Kearschall 1B - C- (I think the last two positions are somewhat screwed up by the limited "contending" free agent signings). Maybe you get a 1B prospect returned for Buxton. The starting rotation would to start the year would be Ober, perhaps Lopez... and then a bunch of the college pitching the Twins have drafted. If the prospects like Jenkins and Rodriguez don't pan out, the team will be in for a long streak of losing.
  12. LyleCole
    Of course it was not the "ONLY" answer. There are a lot of dumb answers available to every question. The real analysis is not asking "is it the ONLY answer", but was it the best answer. I guess finding out if it was the best answer is tied to what the objectives of the season are. Do the Twins want to compete for a title in a weak division with no real chance of winning the World Series (or even a first round playoff series)? Or do they want to position the team for a true run at winning? If they get great seasons out of Buxton, Lopez, Ryan, Ober. Rebound great season from Royce Lewis. More consistency from Matt Wallner. A follow up and healthy season from Luke Keaschall. And a breakout by Brooks Lee. And somehow find some relief pitching.... yeah they could win 90-95 games. The problem is that all of those rolls of the dice coming out the way we want are very improbable and htey may have missed the opportunity of trading Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan at the top of their trade values.
  13. LyleCole
    I think a player like Quick should be fast tracked but it needs to be a "structured" fast track. Start him in at least A+ level and move him up levels if he dominates. The Twins have done this a bit more in recent years but they are still somewhat conservative and I would have no problem moving him up to the big leagues if he dominates in AA this season.
  14. LyleCole
    Forget what is a prediction. This is the what I want the prospect list to look like 1.1.27 1. Dasan Hill - Start the season in A+ and blow away the competition. Then move and have good success at AA level. Last season he was -4.1 years vs. his competition in A+. Of course, the Twins really have struggled to get their pitching prospects over the hurdle. But this would be a great start. (I am a bit confused why he is not in your top 5). 2. #3 overall pick. Get him signed quickly and he enters the professional ranks playing well justifying the move to A+ ball in his first year, maybe even AA (assuming he is a college bat or arm). 3. Eduardo Tait - Finally a catching prospect within this system. 4. Charlie Soto - Maybe he can finally stay healthy and demonstrate it with a solid 2026 season at A+ ball. While a small sample size, he showed significant improvement in his BB/9 from 2024 to 2025. 5. Brandon WInokur - This means that his performance and his athletic potential are starting to converge. Frankly, if Riley Quick and Houston are in the top 5 prospect list this time next year it will be disappointing and it means that some players that have higher upside fell off in 2026. That is not wishing Quick and/or Houston ill will though. I hope they have great seasons too.
  15. LyleCole
    The answer is an obvious no the route the Twins are taking. If they were going to go all in on a rebuild, the should for sure trade Joe Ryan this off season and probably trade Lopez if the return is solid. Then hope Ober recovers from whatever is reducing his effectiveness, and trade him before the deadline. But if they are going to play this "LETS PRETEND TO CONTEND", the top 3 of the starting rotation is a team strength and they should play it out and see what happens. Maybe they can get to 87 wins and be in the hunt for a wild card. That is the maximum the ownership is offering fans.
  16. LyleCole
    I never said Bell was a better first baseman. What I did say was that first base is the lowest priority defensive position and that Bell was a significantly better hitter than either France or Clemens. Last season Josh Bell had an OPS+ of 110 and has a career OPS+ of 114. He has never had a season with an OPS+ below 100. By contrast, Kody Clemens had a career year with an OPS+ of 94. He is essentially a 30 year old journeyman player with a career OPS+ of 81. Ty France had a 2025 OPS+ of 88 with the Twins and Jays. France had some decent OPS numbers earlier in his career but was just a 92 OPS+ hitter in 2024 and 88 in 2025. He lacks power for the first base position, hitting just 7 home runs in 490 plate appearances, compared to Bell's 22 in 533 PAs. So, I am not sure how these rankings are computed, and frankly, ranking Kody Clemens as the 20th best first baseman in the MLB seems somewhat dubious. Josh Bell was better statistically as a hitter in almost every category. Again, I personally do not believe this is a good signing. Bell is a 33 year old player signed to a one year deal. He probably makes us better in 2026 than almost every possible player at 1B but I think it is better for the long term competitiveness of the Twins to go with a younger player who has some potential. Hell, bring in Aaron Sabato and give him 40 games to see if he can make contact with the baseball. I doubt he can, but what is the difference.
  17. LyleCole
    But Bell plays a defensive position that is the lowest on the spectrum. The incremental hitting far outweighs any difference in the fielding prowess of Ty France, or any other prospective Twin 2026 first baseman. If you really expect the Twins to be marginal competitors, this isnt a terrbile signing. The real problem with this signing is that it is shift in the "Roster Age" spectrum in the wrong direction. He will be 33 years old in 2026. Frankly, while I agree that Josh will bit better in 2026 than probably any of the potential prospect or other younger options, in the overall scheme what difference does it make. In the end, the entire problem is summarized by the contract he signed. One year, $7 million with some sort of "mutual" contract arrangement for 2027 (from Spotac). I understand the rational of a one year deal, but what it truly means deep down inside is that the ownership simply will not commit to the team and the fans. If Bell plays below his expected norm, we move on. If he plays near his expected norm, my guess is we unload him for marginal value at or near the trade deadline. If he exceeds expectations, he prices himself out of the 2nd year and moves onto a team that will pay him. This is a short term, mediocre fix to a long term problem. Shoving a 33 year old player into this position just delays finding the long term solution we truly need.
  18. LyleCole
    Instead, how about this. You NAME a single low bonus international signing by the Twins that has been even moderately successful. If you look at the Twins drafts from 2000 - 2022 the Twins have drafted 76 catchers in the 16th through end of the draft. The total number of games played from those 76 catchers: 0. In fact, if you look at the catchers the Twins have drafted in rounds 3 - 10 in that period, the Twins have drafted and signed 18 players. Their success rate: 1/18. Only 2 of those 18 ever had a plate appearance for the Twins: Mitch Garver and Chris Herman. Garver had 1070 plate appearances and a reasonable 7.3 WAR for the Twins. Herman had 389 PAs for a WAR of -1.2. I rest my case about the expected value of a 17 year old low international bonus signee.
  19. LyleCole
    You are not forced to keep a Rule V player on the 26 man roster. If they you don't, they are returned to the original team and $50k of the Rule V fee is refunded. As for this specific player, I don't see the Twins "tied" to Jackson whatsoever. While I get $1.8 million is a lot of the Twins, why HAND a player with such limited MLB performance the backup roster position? If there is internal roster competition, why even bring Jackson in. Just let those prospects compete in Spring Training. Then either bring the best of the competition North, or go dumpster diving for a catcher similar to Alex Jackson. While its fun to think of "lotto jackpot", as I stated above the Expected Value of a lottery ticket is zero. Drafting and keeping Susac, a player who was a recent high draft pick and reasonable minor league statistics for the position (.785 overall OPS) with a .832 AAA OPS with 18 home runs (might be stadium elevated) has a much higher expected return. I feel the same with other Rule V available hitters (mentioned in some of the articles). We do not exactly have a long line of eligible 1B prospects in the system. So, again, for $50k at risk, why not take one of them (I forgot the name of the guy I thought was a reasonable selection) and even play him 40-80 games in the regular season? If he plays well, ok. You got a good selection. If not, return him and it cost the $50k. None of those players that were suggested by TD were drafted. But for a team like the Twins, the risk reward of a Rule V selection is significant.
  20. LyleCole
    Not sure if you understand the concept of Expected Value then. The probability of this player becoming a valuable MLB player is essentially 0.
  21. LyleCole
    The EV of the player is essentially zero.
  22. LyleCole
    But this "victory" has the net positive present value of about $72,000 in cash.
  23. LyleCole
    No. They just seem to lack a confidence in their actual talent evaluation and I think that has limited their ability to maintain the team and rebuild it. They would rather ride Jonah Bride or Ryan Fitzgerald than bring up any of their internal prospects. I think their minor league development concept has been too "station to station" and they are too risk adverse to be in charge of a full rebuild. So, I think the Twins will pretend again and try to split the middle. They keep the core of Lewis-Buxton-Jeffers (trading away a AAA catcher drafted in the Rule V draft seems to indicate that they plan on keeping him) Lopez-Ryan-Ober core. They will try their luck at finding a closer and set up relievers on the cheap. This team, led by its ownership, has always shot for being a "wild card" rather than a true contender.
  24. LyleCole
    You have to wonder what San Francisco knows that the Twins don't, or at least what they think they know. They almost certainly know more about Caraballo than any other team and preferred bringing in Susac. Caraballo signed for a bonus of $172,000. Even if the Twins paid the full $100k Rule V fee (they did apparently get back cash from Giants), they are in theory $72k ahead. And they can develop this prospect over time rather than having to put Susac on the MLB roster the entire year. I get the Twins probably got what they wanted in this trade. They didn't really like anyone in the Rule V draft so they got an asset for their trouble. The problem with this approach is I think it is arrogant. Their talent evaluation has resulted in a 40 man roster that includes Ryan Fitzgerald, Jhonny Pereda, Ryan Kreidler, Mickey Gasper, James Outman and that is after they did a major purge of other at best replacement level players . WHY NOT TAKE A CHANCE ON A RULE V PLAYER? Bring that player in to compete in Spring Training. Maybe even keep them on the active roster to begin the season. TRY SOMETHING. How they could not see Susac as at least competition for Alex Jackson is a mystery to me. Maybe this kid outplays Jackson. There were several players and pitchers available that I think could have been at least competitive for a roster spot on this team. Rule V is a low risk system that can potentially bring talent to your organization. But it is just another that the front office seems to disdain, probably because they want the flexibility to find sub-500 OPS 30+ year old waiver wire pickups.
  25. LyleCole
    You can't? The point is the route the Twins chose in 1982 meant he was NOT blocking Puckett. But what happens if the Twins decide to move Jimmy Eisenreich to AA in 1982 instead of putting him as the starting centerfielder on the major league team in 1982? Kirby was drafted in 1982 and played Rookie ball. Then in 1983 they move Kirby to A and Jimmy to AAA. Your point about "fast tracking" is just agreeing to my point. YOu move Eisenreich to the majors after just A ball. YOU skip AA for Kirby. You move the prospects up fast. They either show or they don't. But if you move station by station, it blocks the entire rebuild because you don't get the inforamtion fast enough.
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