LyleCole

What is sad is that there has not been one word said, either in the column or the comments, about the Twins signing Ryan Jeffers to a long term deal. When the fans just assume that the Twins would not even think about offering a contract for Jeffer means we really are not a legitimate MLB franchise. The market value of Ryan Jeffers in the modern day economics of professional baseball is not extreme. He will be a catcher turning 30 next season. A long term deal is 3 years, especially since in his solid contract year he missed almost 2 months of the season with injury. Online, for what it is worth, the range of this contract is basically $36-45 million for the 3 years. Maybe Boras can get him more, but those offers would be more outliers from what the Twins management parameters they should use in their decision making. And if you look at that range, an organization like the Twins simply cannot offer the Qualifying Offer to a 30 year old catcher. The compensation value the Twins would receive if he moved on, most likely a Comp B pick (contract under $50 million) is not worth the risk that he takes the $24 million. Going back to legitimacy, once the Twins decided not to trade Jeffers at the trade deadline into what could have been a lucrative trade market even at rental prices, a legitimate team in MLB would never make that decision IF THEY DID NOT PLAN ON RESIGNING JEFFERS THIS OFFSEASON. And that should be the plan. The Twins should offer a very competitive offer for Jeffers to remain a Twin. 3 years, $42 million with a club option 4th year at $16 million. We "bought" at the trade deadline and ownership babbles about investing in the team. So Jeffers should be only the first step in an offseason plan to move the team into competitiveness. They should target at least a $150 million payroll even though $170 million is what the Twins fans deserve. But I doubt the Twins are a legitimate franchise and they will most likely return to their standard practices.

I am glad they gave him a chance at the big leagues. Hopefully he recovers from his injury and has a long professional baseball career.

Thanks for making my argument for me. Even if you include the "trade candidates", they really do not have much depth and the value of Kremer is just to go out there every 5 days and give a mediocre performance because there simply isn't anyone there to replace him. Maybe if Riley Quick was ready to be promoted to the Twins the calculus would be different, but he isn't at this time. Like I said, the downside risk of that is very minimal. If he sucks, designate him for assignment and move on. If he pitches well, then the team might be doing well, OR you might recoup your investment and more at or before the trade deadline to a team looking for rotation help. The Twins minor league system is not really stacked with available pitching. Quick is (based om mlb.com) the #7 prospect. Wachsmann, a 2026 HS draft pick is #12 (essentially replacing Dasan Hill). Brett Renfrom, a 2026 college draft pick is 14. Charlie Soto is #18, but he has only pitched 15 innings in the most recent 2 seasons. The rest of the guys are outside the top 20: some 2026 draft picks that have yet to make their pro debut, longtime prospect Marco Raya who looks like he has flamed out,

Injured. #2. #1. Injured. Injured. Currently not much beyond a 4/5 and whose health has been suspect. Probably should be in the bullpen and far from proven. Another 4/5 guy. Another 4/5 guy. Add David Festa as another unproven and injured pitcher. If we had some sparkling starting pitching prospect, I would perhaps agree with you. But, the best pitching prospects in the Twins system will almost certainly not be in the rotation next season.

I essentially disagree. Kremer is a 4th-5th starting pitcher and has a reasonable record at that level. He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million. The fact is, the 4/5 starting pitchers in the major leagues have good games and bad games. I think the Twins should plug him into the rotation in 2027. The worst case scenario is that he just isn't that good and there are better options to put into the rotation although I am not sure exactly what those options are at the moment (perhaps someone has some ideas). The best case scenario is that he pitches well to the deadline either helping the Twins to a playoff level record, or failing that, he is a pitcher that we can more than recoup our investment in. That is a very reasonable set of outcomes for trading a young, lower level, international, and outside the top-25 prospect list like Reyes, who in 95 plate appearances for Baltimore's A minor league team he has a .611 OPS. And, while I usually am an advocate of not using half way measures in building a roster (either rebuild or compete), I just do not think the Twins system has enough rotational arms to fill out the 2027 starting rotation.

Here has been a common theme of the Twins organization for a while, through many front offices and managers: They are afraid of calling up prospects and they do not do well and they are simultaneously afraid of calling up prospects and they flourish. The second clause is all financial because then they lose a year of control and will have to pay them. The Dodgers and Yankees do not have these concerns.

I think the move to the bullpen is way past due for Connor. As a major league pitcher that is probably his best role. He might have the stuff of a starting pitcher, but for all of his career the innings limit and arm concerns are going to linger. In the last six seasons of baseball (including 2 years in Alabama) he has thrown 258 innings. In 4 years of professional baseball that total is 220 innings. Move him to a relief role. This will increase his velocity and movement, and mitigate the need for utilizing his secondary pitches. I think he will be a very effective relief pitcher, and maybe a high end closer.

I mentioned this in the game thread, but one of the keys to JP Smith II becoming a legitimate major league prospect is his poor conditioning. When I was at the Miracle Mighty Mussel game recently he trotted out to be the first base "coach" and it looked like an overweight guy they brought in from the stands. He can obviously hit, but the 6-2 240 they list him at is probably understated. Spend this offseason conditioning and building muscle. It would be a worthwhile investment for the Twins to find JP a personal trainer and nutritionist, and a well conditioned JP Smith at a real 6-2, 240 could become a MLB level hitter.

JP Smith can really hit. What I would suggest to him is starting the very first day after the end of the season he really works on his conditioning. Seeing him in person, he was really pudgy. But he seems to have the frame that if he can get in better shape and add muscle he could become a player like Josh Bell.

As I had pointed out when the trades were made, there was nothing really wrong with the individual trades they made. I actually like the Dean Kremer trade a lot getting a 4th starter type player with experience and one more year of reasonable team control for a low level minor league player. The Minter rental was a reasonable acquisition to try to take a shot at the playoffs and he has performed very well, maybe enough the Twins could be in contention to retain him. The Hoffman cost was the highest move, although it was reasonable. He would be the only question mark but he might be a good person to have in the bullpen next season no matter what hte course. But the real issue is that while these were BIG moves by Twins standard, they really were half way moves to try to just squeak into the playoffs either as the bottom wild card team or winning a very weak AL division. To me you either commit to rebuild and trade away the assets you have at high value that cannot be part of your rebuild, or you commit to becoming a team that will field a payroll similar to other teams in the league. Minnesota is tens of millions of dollars below median and average major league baseball payrolls. That means they have lots of opportunity to sign free agents this offseason if they so choose. But I expect more of the same from ownership. They will target the bottom of the playoff level as their goal and limit the signings to low cost players.

Well, we don't want another rookie like Culpepper coming up and hitting at a .900+ clip, right?

Sorry, you are not correct about "everyone saying this".

Can you imagine the haul of prospects we could have got for Buxton before the start of the season? He was coming off perhaps his best season of his MLB career, only the 3rd of his 12 season in which he played more than 95 games, and was still a high impact hitter and fielder. Contending markets would have looked at his contract, which is huge for the Twins, as petty change for the value they would be getting. Sure, he had a no trade clause and stated he did not want to be traded, but that would have changed when he would be looking at being on a real contending team. Instead, we pretended we were contenders and probably lost a chance to maximize our returns on player like Buxton and Joe Ryan, and to a lesser extend Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers. Perhaps the ownership has turned around and will spend money to keep Jeffers and add real talent in the offseason. But does anyone really believe that? And then, when the next rebuild starts and we confront the problem of not having quality pitching in both starters and relievers, we need to remember these decisions made start to finish in 2026.

The time to call Emmanual Rodriguez up to the majors is NOW. His main problem has been injuries, so instead of being injured at the minor league level, lets get over our fear and let him get injured at the major league level. At least we can get him some plate appearances and see if his approach can carry over to the highest level of ball.

Players who are defensive liabilities but can produce offensively just slide to the left of the defensive spectrum. This offseason I would suggest they continue his OF development as best they can and then buy him a first baseman's glove. Is there enough power for him to be at that end of the spectrum? I think the really, really slow start impacted him in the power area and he is not a true power hitter. But there is still a lot of pop in his bat. Get him 50 games in LF, 60 games at first, 10 games at 2B and 25 as the DH. As his defense improves then slide him more to left, if not slide him to first. But make sure that his defense is a priority in offseason work.

It might be over except for an improbable run, but their current record is 60-65. To get to 500 they need to go 21-16 over the next 37 games. That is a .568 win percentage, or a 92 win pace.

When I went to a recent Miracle Mighty Mussel game, one guy that really needs to advance up the Twins prospect list is Luis Fragoza. He is a pure hitter with a solid approach at the plate, and in the couple of chances I saw of him in RF he looks like a solid corner outfielder. While speed is not his game, he is 16 SB with just 2 CS. He is listed at 6-1 160 lbs but he has obviously added muscle to his frame and I would estimate he is at 190 lbs. I think he is a much better prospect than Reyes, whom we traded. He now has 30 XBH with 13 HR. He is hitting .316 with a .587 slugging percentage. He will turn 20 in late October so he is facing competition that is an average of 2.0 years older. Lots of time to work him through the minors and see if he can continue this approach as he moves to higher competition levels.

So, why did the Twins call up Kaelen Culpepper and then sit him two games into his stint with the big league club? Is he injured again?

Lets make it clear that the Varland issue is not a mistake of being market sellers at the deadline. It is a mistake of player development and evaluation. When you draft a player into your development system your team should be the biggest expert on their potential. Minnesota developed Varland as a starting pitcher through the lower minors and the statistical results were very encouraging. But they just could not seem to get Louis over the hump as a starter in the higher minors and his three stints from 2022-2024 with the Twins as a starter. They finally moved him to the bullpen in 2025 and he was getting solid results, with a 2.02 ERA (what is surprising is that Varland's K/9 in these 49 innings of relief were the lowest of his career, 8.6). My view on why the Twins traded him was that they viewed Varland as a failed starter and never bought into his role in the bullpen. They considered his statistical results in 2025 as one of those statistical blips that can happen in the careers of relief pitchers and believed they were selling Varland high at the deadline. And as with the Sam Darnold saga with the VIkings, just because a player has success with another franchise does not mean he would have success with yours. Darnold would have struggled with the Vikings offensive line failures, and it is doubtful that Minnesota would have used Varland as a late inning closer like the Blue Jays. LIke I said, I just do not think they believed in him in that role. And, before we short circuit this trade, lets see how Kendry Rojas develops. Varland is 28 years old and he reached the majors when he was 25. Rojas is 5 years younger and has already touched the major leagues and shown some talent at that level. One issue I have with Rojas though, like Varland, will the Twins make up their mind if he is a starter or a reliever?

I wish they all could make it. Gonsalves was really good at the beginning of his minor league career. Did he wreck his arm in 2019?

No on all of them. They are all just names from the past.

This was a half measure. I get people are excited that they did not dump players and actually acquired some arms that improves the pitching staff. That is absolutely true. But none of the acquisitions are from the top tier of available players. Jeff Hoffman, 3 or 4 years ago? Yeah. Today, he has some question marks although he has pitched better in the 2nd half. Kremer? He was a 4th type of guy most of his career but his 2026 season is down. Same with AJ Minter. We are buying these guys not just low, but career level lows hoping they can turn it around. And, there are legitimate questions about whether not trading Larnach and Jeffers, and even Joe Ryan, are in the long term interest of the team. Sure, not trading them at the 2026 deadline will help this team with a chance to squeak into a 3rd wild card slot (and, perhaps win the very weak division). But I for one believe that is not the goal ownership should be seeking. That is a half measure, and frankly, I think ownership has rested on these half laurels and used them as an excuse not to spend money on the team: "We made the playoffs (and got bounced) what more do you want?"

This is another misapplication of statistics. The reason is that the magic number in this scenario is 1.0. The extra 0.5 runs is meaningless. TO not lose the game you must prevent ONE run from scoring. What makes this scenario misapplied is that because you have to prevent the single run, with one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd you need to play the infield in and your pitcher cannot let the ball get in the air with any depth. But if you walk to load the bases, then the infield can play at DP depth which eliminates the balls that would get through when the infield is playing in, brings into play the double play ending the threat, and allows the force out at home plate on balls hit to the corner IF (see Hrbek in World Series) and the home to first double play. The fly ball scenarios are identical because a deep enough fly ball to the OF would score the runner from 3rd in both scenarios. Personally, I think the optimal strategy facing the #8 hitter with a .200 BA and .611 OPS is to pitch to him and see if you can get ahead in the count. Make him swing at the pitcher's pitch. If you fall behind, lets say 2-0, then walk him but not intentionally. Throw 2 balls outside the strike zone, again hoping to induce a swing.

They are not really "spending money". They made the minimum moves to keep them in contention for the last wild card playoff spot and perhaps even a division title in a division that will probably be won with a near .500 record. WIth respect to money, they are still tens of millions of dollars below the median salary for major league baseball. And all of these moves are really just window dressing if the offseason next season is just the same as this past offseason where signing Josh Bell was the big move. The Hoffman trade is not a bad trade for a team that can absorb $12.7 million in payroll next season. I think that Dasan Hill is a prospect, but he has a very serious lack of control and command, averaging 7.4 BB/9 this season and 6.5/9 for his total minor league career. I think he is the only prospect that I would term "high marginal" because he will not last long with that level of control. (I think high marginal is a 10-12-15% type chance of making it). Klein is a low marginal prospect (I think of this level as about a 5% of becoming a productive major league player). Dameury Pena is a prospect I know little about, but he seems to be a diminuative infielder without much pop in his bat, but high contact skills and reasonable OBP. If you look at his stats the first part of the year in FT Myers they do not look all that bad: slash 322/393/381 with 27 walks and just 10 strikeouts. But, of his 77 hits, only 10 of them were XBH: 7 2B 1 3B 1 HR. WIth that lack of power it will be difficult for him to keep up that OPS level as he moves through the baseball levels because more advanced pitching will not be afraid of him. We obviously did not make a major move, so we kept all of our best prospects with perhaps losing Hall who was in the top 15, along with Reyes who was a rising Latin player (is that term still used anymore????). But it was a cheap cost to acquire a two pitchers with team control in 2027 and a good left handed reliever that is a rental (but perhaps he returns if we invest in the offseason). We still have Rodriguez, Tait and Quick along with the guys that are probably untouchable.

He is under contract for $12,666,667 in 2027.