LyleCole

People can SAY anything. Of course he says he wants to stay in Minnesota. But, when confronted with a huge upgrade in teams and the chance to play in the World Series, he would forget everything he ever said. And if he didn't, then you have to wonder about his competitiveness level. So, in a way, you can believe him and not believe him simultaneously. "Byron we have a deal to trade you to teh LA Dodgers do you opt out of your no trade?" Split second later "Of course." But, Byron we have a deal to trade you to the Montreal Expos, do you reject that trade" is a much different proposition.

Sure. And again as I said in another post, if he would have been traded to an actual contender this last offseason in which he could become a well known player competing in meaningful games rather than a good player in MLB backwater city: the "I want to stay in Minnesota" claim would have been over. Byron Buxton playing for the Dodgers is a superstar. Byron Buxton playing for the Twins is "who is he" except for die hard fans. THe probability that Buxton would have rejected a trade to LA, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Red Sox was 0%.

Positive thinking is not analytical thinking. And it is absolutely correct to point out mistakes that have happened in the past. The mistake they made at the beginning of 2026 was not trading Buxton and Joe Ryan. If you set their relative trade value to 100 in the offseason of 2026, I would argue that Buxton's trade value is now about 40 and Ryan's 50. Less than half. I would argue that Ryan Jeffer's trade value relative to the trade deadline is also 50. And the real need to make those trades at max value is that the Twins pitching pipeline is rather barren and we really do not have a lot of other methods of adding to the pitching core. We have to make smart draft picks for pitching, develop those players and then add smart prospects from trades, such as getting Joe Ryan in the first place, to fill out the staff. Where we need to be positive is believing that our core group of prospects that are just pushing to the majors now will have what it takes to become a competitive team over the near far term (2-3 years). Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lee, Diaw, Lackey, Tait, Tinney, Mendez, Gonzales, Roden, Keaschall. I think there is a lot of data that suggests we should be positive with this group. If we brought up that entire group like the Twins did in 1982 with the Hrbek-Gaetti-Brunansky-Viola cohort, took their lumps, found out which of these guys pans out and which does not, then bring in the second wave Gagne-Puckett, And then make smart moves in trades (Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven) and lower end free agents hopefully we can form a truly competitive team. And while people have made comments that baseball today is not what it was in 1982, one factor that is different is that if we "tank" for a year or two that just adds top level draft picks to our system. But in that era without signing bonus slot values it was very difficult for the Twins to sign their picks. In 1983 the Twins failed to sign the #1 player picked in the draft, Tim Belcher and their 2nd round pick, #29 Bill Swift. That was a major blow and I also believe it made them gun shy from drafting players they feared would not sign.

First, if you look at that proposed roster it is not a) good enough to compete for any meaningful post-season level or b) enough of a rebuild to quickly transition to becoming a competitive team. It is more of the half way measures that simply keeps the team in the 70-80 win range with only dreams of sneaking into the playoffs as a team that will get smacked out of the playoffs (over and over again) in the first round, In the 21st century the Twins have made the playoffs ten times. They have 7 total playoff wins, with 4 of those wins occuring in 2002. Second, the payroll configuration listed is what I would state is the maximum from the existing players on the roster. I doubt they tender both Ober and Kremer. I doubt they go with a $2 million backup catcher in Jackson. It is highly doubtful they bring back Banda at even $2.3 million. I will state it again, and when you look at this roster it is blatantly obvious: The Twins erred when they did not move Buxton and Ryan in the previous offseason, and Jeffers and others at the deadline. Now the trade return value of these guys is substantially lower than it was at the beginning of 2026, they are a full year older, and both are struggling with injuries which severely impacted their performances in the 2nd half of the season. Jeffers will be gone as a free agent only bringing back a comp pick and Larnach isn't even being tendered in this scenario. Trading these guys brings back high level prospects that would then fill out the rebuild roster. I think their decisions have made this roster about the best they can do, and we will be in for another fun 77 win season.

His base salary is $11 million. The $12.666 includes the amortization of a $5 million signing bonus that was included in the $33 million contract.

Ryan, Clemens, and Bradley are 100%. Then I think they have a couple of either or decisions to make: Kremer or Ober which I put at Kremer 80% and 20% they tender both. Lewis or Larnach: I think Lewis 80% with 10% they tender both. At a low cost, Tommy Nance is closer to 100% than he is to 0%. Cole Sands and Anthony Banda are very close to 0%.

The real problem is even if there is a lot of intent for ownership to step up their spending, they have put the team into a situation where in the coming offseason they simply will not have enough options to get to even average spending in major league baseball. And, I think that the team really missed their opportunity to sell high on veteran players like Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers, and even Larnach. The trade values of Buxton and Ryan have taken major steps backwards, and Jeffers as a free agent can only generate a comp pick, about half of his value if traded at the deadline. Lets say the Twins ownership wants to incrementally spend $40 million, plus $20 million to retain Ryan Jeffers. How do they even do it in ways that will improve the team? The Twins will have a hard sell convincing players who have other options to come here and the biggest factor is they have nickled and dimed their way to be the bottom feeder of the league.

Not. A. High. Bar. I can see many controllable scenarios in which they keep both Kremer and Ober, simply because they have no one else to fill in the starting rotation. Our pitching pipeline is pretty bare. But, if they decide to go with just one of those two players, I would chose Kremer. In his time with the Twins he pitched better than Ober and would probably be cheaper. If they chose to go with just one, they would non-tender the other.

I think Taj Bradley is the only pitcher that you can pencil in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2027. Pablo Lopez? Wishful thinking. Its not out of the realm of possibility, but pitchers who miss significant time in 2025 and then a full season in 2026 due to elbow problems are not guaranteed returning to the major leagues and pitching at the same level they once did. That is why you look at certain careers of solid pitchers, who then suddenly bounce around the league with a few innings here one year and few the next. Joe Ryan? This is much more probable but there is also a trade element. But, I would add you are looking at a 30 year old pitcher who the past two seasons has faded in the 2nd half of the season. In 2026 Ryan had a 2.85 ERA in the first half of the season, a 6.82 in the 2nd. Similarly in 2025 he had 2.72 ERA first half, 4.67 ERA in the 2nd. Too much of my posting are very negative, but I think these collapses are a bad sign that could predict a pitcher that is coming into a streak of arm problems. I believe Kremer will be penciled in the rotation in 2027. I think his arbitration number will be much lower than Bailey Ober's. In fact, I believe it is very likely that the Twins will not offer Ober arbitration because they do not want the risk of Ober getting a value above the $5.2 million he received this year. So I think it is highly probable they just let him walk. But it is also possible both Kremer and Ober are in the rotation to start the season because there really isn't any other pitchers in the pipeline that are on track to be added to the roster. Riley Quick is still at least a year away and that is probably the guy who is the top of the list. So Bradley-Ryan will be the top 2. They will pray Lopez can actually pitch but it is doubtful (and I would not be surprised if he starts the season on the 60 day DL then rehab back through the minors). Then Kremer. Then winners between Matthews-Prielipp-Abel and maybe even Festa.

The percentage of players rejecting upward trades is about 0% in the entire history of the league. Now, if we were trading him to a non-contender I would think otherwise. The fact is that the best thing for Byron Buxton's career would be traded from a low level team like the Twins to a power team.

You make a trade with a contending team and Buxton would have agreed to it. 100% guaranteed. Like I explained, it is one thing to state "I want to be a Twin forever". It is another to really be confronted with reality of playing for a team that is going to contend for the World Series and will make you a true star player, rather than an unknown toiling for a team in the minor league of major league baseball. I get why Buxton would say he does not want to be traded, but in the end he would have moved. Competitiveness, financial opportunities, and career opportunities. Only a fool would stay with the Minnesota Twins when they have the opportunity to move to the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, or Phillies. At the beginning of 2026 Buxton could have brought a haul of players to the Twins, including at least one top level pitching prospect. Given the state of our pitching pipeline that would have been a major benefit to rebuild this team into a real contender. Joe Ryan could have returned the same value.

The Twins made a huge mistake in not trading Buxton in the offseason. He was coming off one of his best seasons of his career and the 2nd most games played in a season. He still was a valuable 5 tool player and for a contending team on a very favorable contract that at the start of 2026 had three full years of team control. The entire no-trade saga could have been easily overridden by trading him to a contending team that really wanted him. Its one thing to say "I want to stay a Twin", it is another to consider being traded to the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, or even the Cubs and becoming part of a team that would be good and push Byron into the limelight. But the Twins PRETENDED to be contenders, held onto all of their trade assets, and frankly they all lost value in 2026. Buxton, another injury with a surgery that is going to require long term rehab. Ryan, with a second consecutive season of fading in the 2nd half. Jeffers, whose value is down to a Comp B draft pick. If you made a quantitative measure of Buxton and Ryan's trade value in the offseason of 2026 and then in 2027, their value is less than HALF of what you could have got. And I would argue a Comp B pick is about half of what Jeffers value would have been at the trade deadline. Again, all to PRETEND to be a contender and 9 games under water at the 159 game mark. If the team is going to put $60-70 million in incremental payroll for the 2027 season, then perhaps this will be somewhat water under the bridge. But the probability of them increasing payroll by that substantial amount is very low, starting with the fact that Minnesota is not considered a high value destination for major league baseball free agents.

I only played high school baseball, but all through my career I was a hit by pitch expert. I was really skinny but wore a jersey two size too big for me. Getting on base was the objective!!! Most of those Expos guys you mention were there because of Rusty Staub! I was a much bigger baseball fan as a kid than I am now.

22 is nothing. IN 1971 Ron Hunt was hit by 50 pitches. He led the major leagues in HBP 7 years in a row. It was part of his hitting approach and they claim he wore extra baggy jerseys to enhance being hit.

Why would you waste your time on this nonsense?

While I believe you cannot do things half way, you either compete (and spend the money) or you rebuild. Half way just gives us the 75-84 win type of teams that occasionally make the bottom edge of the playoff teams (either winning the extremely mediocre Central Division or the last wild card). But it also depends on what the other options are. One aspect of rebuilding is you need to have patience and stick with the players you are trying to develop. 5.21 and 5.49 are the ERAs the 1982 and 1983 Twins had 126 and 210 innings pitched by Frank Viola before he gained the experience and confidence to match his stuff (probably is good concept for some of the younger pitchers on the staff today). Then in 1984 he had a 3.21 ERA over 257 innings and eventually became the Cy Young level pitcher think about. If we are going to develop and essentially tank and consider that progress then do not bring back Josh Bell. But, if there really isn't a player that can replace him immediately on the roster I would consider retaining him. IN the end, if they really commit to a rebuild getting Gabe Gonzalez and others Bells plate appearances have more long term value to the team. While in many ways it might be miserable, a 60-102 2027 with the young players developing might be the best possible outcome for the Twins. Trade away the valuable veterans for solid prospects, lock in another top 3 pick, and move on to 2028 with the core of your team getting that full year experience at the highest level.

Very happy for Aaron. He has worked to improve himself every step of his professional career. I doubt it means much in the long run, but it will still create a lot of personal memories for him.

I disagree in part. The direction is the rebuild. The plan should be to create this lineup for Game 1 of the 2028 season: OF; Jenkins, Rodriguez, Mendez, Gonzalez IF: Culpepper, Keaschall, Houston, Winokur, Lee (Winokur might be pushing) C: Lackey, Diaw Maybe Clemens would be the veteran presence. There might be other players knocking at the door like Caden Kendle or Jaime Ferrer or maybe even Luis Fragoza in the OF, or Tait or Tinney at catcher. Would be nice if Kyle Debarge pushed too. But these guys are the replacements for if any of the prospects higher in the development chain falter. The reason why REBUILD should be the direction, and should have been this last season, is that our pitching pipeline is not as robust as our position players. We need a major influx of talent. Most of the position players are ready to play right now. That does not mean they will be at 100% of their potential immediately. It takes time for players to develop at the MLB level. You have to lose like the 1982 Twins did (and that brings in more talent in the pipeline via the draft). But if the bulk of these players like Jenkins and Culpepper are true, then we should be able to field competitive teams, especially if we fill any holes at "maturity" with smart pick ups and trades like the 87 and 91 teams did.

The answer is almost certainly no. He just never developed the way they hoped. It sometimes happens when a prospects performance is heavily influenced by their relative age to competition i.e. he is three plus years younger than the competition.

I think the word success is being stretched here. Brooks Lee is a starting player, but frankly I think he has been a disappointment. I thought he would be much more of a professional hitter with above average bat to ball skills. But he really hasn't. He has a career OBP under .300, a career batting average under .240, and a career slugging percentage under .400. His career OPS+ is 87 which to his credit improved to 101 this season based on a decent increase in power raising his slugging percentage up to .429. Perhaps there is more improvement to come and as a utility man maybe that is good enough. But from a guy drafted in the top ten? And amongst the pitching selected in that draft, Prielipp, Morris, and Matthews, I guess if "success" is defined by reaching the majors they have been successful. But they clearly have not demonstrated that they have established a role at the major league level to date and there is significant uncertainty to their futures if we are being realistic. Given that they all were college draft picks and all of them are 26 years old (rounding up a little for Prielipp and Lee), they are no longer kid prospects that have their full developmental timeline ahead of them. Their improvement needs to happen in a big hurry for them to become true successes.

Exactly. If they add one higher end hitter to that lineup they are contenders for the World Series rings.... but they didn't so they were just good enough, with limited exceptions, to sneak into the playoffs and get bombed by better overall teams. THE WINDOW WAS THERE. The ownership refused to make the commitment.

I always say that I wish all of these young men can make it to the big leagues and have a great career. Even the misses are such talented baseball players who until they reach that certain limit were probably always the best player around.

During the Mauer-Mourneau-Santana-Liriano years if they just bring the payroll up, they are real contenders for the World Series and probably recoup all of their incremental investment. They had good young stars and good supporting players, a high level closer. They just had to rely too much on guys like Rondell White and Lew Ford and Nick Punto.

I have a 2nd home just north of Chattanooga so I went to the Chattanooga Lookout game (Cincinnati Reds AA Affiliate). The Lookouts have a brand new stadium that opened this year so I wanted to take a look at it, and fortunately I was able to before the season ended. I am glad I did. It was a beautiful stadium that was built in a former industrial area so they kept a lot of that rustic look in and around the stadium. They drew a nice crowd on Fan Appreciation night and put up some runs for the home crowd. Really don't follow the Reds a lot. The AA team did not have a lot of their higher minor league prospects. The best hitter in the lineup was Carter Graham, a 2023 8th round draft pick out of Standford. He had not had much success in his minor league career before 2026 with all of his minor league season posting sub-.700 OPS. But this year he has split between A+ and AA and posted 31 2B and 29 HRS, along with 80 BB for a OPS of .990. He absolutely crushed a home run early in the game and then hit a laser right at the LF. I thought their catcher Alfredo Duno was a decent hitter, a big Venezuelan kid who has hit all through the minors. Their DH Ruben Ibarra has played 2 seasons for Nooga, hitting 20+ home runs each year and was very popular with the crowd. He is listed at 6-3, 290 and he tomahawked a high fastball deeeeeep into LF. The Lookouts have a the Reds 2022 first round pick(18th overall) Cam Collier at 3B. But he has struggled all season and really did not look good at the plate. The other is Austin Hendrick, their first round pick, 12th overall, in 2020 out of high school. He has really struggled to get past AA ball. He started teh season at AAA but only had a .566 OPS there and was then sent back to AA for his 3rd sting at the level. The pitching wasn't anything to write home about for either team. Both starters had ERAs above 6.50 entering the game. Both relief pitchers who finsihed the game had ERAs above 6.50. But Chattanooga's first reliever was a former Twins 2021 draft pick, Jonathan Lavallee. The Twins released him near the end of the 2023 season. He signed with the Blue Jays organization and was with them for a couple of years. Then signed with the Reds in 2026. He pitched well in AA, but was promoted to AAA in June and he did not perform well at that level so he was sent back down to the Lookouts. If you get a chance to go to a game in Chattanooga I highly recommend it.

This is why the rebuilding strategy made so much more sense at the deadline than the half way buy strategy they attempted at the trade deadline. You have an entire outfield of higher rated minor league prospects ready to play, all at AAA or higher: Jenkins, Rodriguez, Mendes, and Gonzales, along with Roden and even Matt Wallner. You have Culpepper and Lee at the MLB level at infield with Marek Houston probably ready in AA. Kody Clemens and Luke Keaschall can be the 1B/2B/OF type of utility that you can use in DH role too. The only position that has no immediate answer is catcher but the pipeline starting at the AA level is very loaded, and I think they should give Diaw an opportunity to win a roster spot next season because he is a professional type of hitter (natural lead off man with .400+ OBP that ahs held at every level). The biggest weakness of this team is long term pitching, and we should have used our very valuable trade pieces to fill in those holes. Rebuilding helps the Twins financially and by tanking they get high draft picks to keep the prospect pool filled. You then use attrition to figure out the lineup, and then if you can make smart moves like finding useful players like Chili Davis, Shane Mack, Big Train Willis, and Brian Harper to fill the remaining holes you can convert a rebuilding team into a winner.