LyleCole

I think it is long past worrying about the entire way the Twins scout, draft, and develop players. Twins Daily has long presented the Twins system as favorable to pitcher development, but I don't think the facts support that proposition. Of pitchers drafted and developed by the Twins, how many of them have reached the point of being "established"? Bailey Ober who had 2-3 years as a regular starting rotation pitcher with high level of productivity. OF course, the last two seasons he has fallen off that level. And I would argue that because of his low velocity he is an outlier. Griffin Jax as a reliever not a starter Other than Ober and Jax? Connor Prielipp Zebby Matthews Andrew Morris Travis Adams Cole Sands Cody Lawyerson Make Paredes David Festa

I am not fooled by anything. But I also will state that there is a progression of prospects and that certain members of your organization can earn their chance to make it to the big leagues. Aaron Saboto has earned a promotion. WIll it be a long one? IDK. But I don't see how promoting him and giving him 100 plate appearances would hurt anything. If he strikes out 60 times, well..... But that is better than bringing in another waiver wire replacement level player.

I agree with the idea that the only way I send Luke to AAA is if they bring up Culpepper, but I would also add Kyle Fedko to the list, or maybe Ben Ross. If they are sending him down so they can squeeze another "designated for assignment" 31 year old cash deal replacement players then no. Have him work out his problems at the major league level.

It is pretty impressive that the Twins Daily mock draft earlier has three guys Law now projects to be drafted in the first round.

Yep.... we got ourselves another designated for assignment TREASURE.

I think the team control is a bit overstated in that he will be Arbitration-1 eligible for next season. I would estimate he is going to get around $2.5 million in arbitration for 2027 tripling is current salary. Then assuming a similar season, around $4.5 million (See Trevor Larnach). While in modern professional sports contract values that is not a huge amount, I think it is for Kody Clemons. But I also agree with those who state that the price has to be right. Its still a cheap contract, and that adds value to the team who is acquiring, but if you can't get a guy that at least has some potential of being a MLB player there is no sense in trading him. Just keep him as a versatile veteran presence who has some pop in his bat. The value in trading him is not just getting a propsect back, but clearing the way for some of their AAA players. I would really, really like to see them give Aaron Sabato a chance with enough time left in the season to give him 150 plate appearances. Aaron has paid his dues since being a first round draft pick in 2020. He has obviously worked hard and has seemingly improved. He has cut his K% down somewhat, he ha a .360 OBP and .615 SLG%. He is 27 years old so his opportunity window to make the Major Leagues is getting close to being shut. If he strikes out 78 times in those 150 PAs, which is a distinct possibility, you saw him strike out 78 times but still gave him a chance. I think it is important to the organization to give opportunities to draft picks like Sabato who have moved up the organization and got better each year. Otherwise, why even have these players in your organization.

I would probably still be on the Lackey bandwagon for the #3 pick, but I am also a believer in isolating statistics of draft prospects in any sports and only looking at their stats against the very best competition they play. I think the catcher position is still underwhelming in our system even with the 2025 acquisition of Tait and Lackey could be a guy that is with the team sooner rather than later. But if they analyze what he did against the best NCAA pitching and see too many flaws then they have a lot of options. Assuming the first pick is Lackey, I don't see pick 43 being a high school hitter. I would prefer a college arm like Jack Radel. He probably doesn't have the highest upside, but I think he has a decent floor, good size, starter combination of pitches, and again could be contributing in a year or two with the Twins. And I agree with you that the Twins need to keep pounding the 2-3-4 round with college pitching prospects, and need to take at least 2 college pitcher with picks 43-74-79, with the other pick being a college OF prospect. Of course, my knowledge of baseball prospect, literally thousands of them in HS and college, is only surface deep.

Speaking of colossal wastes of time, your comments are the King! Good job. Do I think that Fedko will "cure the ills" of the Minnesota Twins? Nope. What I do think is that: 1. Kyler Fedko can be a better performer than James Outman who has demonstrated he is a below replacement level player ; 2 Fedko is a guy the minor leagues were designed for and he has essentially got better each step of the process ; 3 Fedko has EARNED the promotion to the Big Leagues, six years in the organization and advancing and improving, seemingly doing everything his team has asked. Fedko's career path reminds me a lot of Brian Dozier except that Dozier's increase in power came well after his major league debut. We know what we have in Outman (and a few other players). We don't know what we have in Fedko. He has earned his shot and the Twins should reward a 6 year member of their organization with the deserved promotion. S

Why would the Twins want to do that? They have James Outman with a solid .493 OPS on the MLB roster. There is still more than half the season to give him more plate appearances so he can strike out 43% of the time. And, when we get too tired of that magnificence I am sure there are several 32 year old waiver wire candidates out there. The Twins give very few chances to players that have actually been drafted by the organization and besides, since Kyle is 26 years and 256 days if we brought him up now that would be rushing him to the majors and threatening his future development. We don't want that. What if he fails? And, of course we don't need a versatile player with a little bit of pop in his bat that will take professional ABs.

Yes but it is a million dollars incremental. The Twins think in these terms.

I knew there was another waiver wire, replacement level player out there the Twins just could not wait to get their hands on! Like some of the other commentators, I did not have a problem with them DFAing Woods Richardson. But I also knew that their response to that release would be to find some older, never has been arm to "bolster" their bullpen instead of giving their own internal prospects the opportunity to move up. This has been the real "Twins Way" for quite some time. I really believe they need a complete overhaul in how they develop their pitching prospects, including their draft evaluations. One issue is, their conservative approach really doesn't seem to work in any way. Our young pitchers have plenty of arm problems that the conservative approach seems designed to prevent. Instead of "bolstering", give Mike Paredes more opportunity. They aint "rushing" Paredes as he is currently 25 years 310 days old and just made his MLB debut. Maybe he isn't "ready" for the major leagues, but lets also give him 10-15 appearances to actually find out rather than running out to the waiver wire (I get this was a "trade") and excitedly getting another guy who will take up opportunities for our young prospects on a rebuilding team.

Why has Reitz only thrown 6 innings this season?

Maybe. But we don't really know everything about what the Nationals were offered. The Twins are willing to take just about anything in return to dump contracts, and if you read my entire point was contingent on Bell getting back on track as the season progresses. But even if they can't dump him, the Twins are also a team that saves every dollar. His 2026 money is guaranteed so if they cannot dump him, they will probably just keep him to save money on his replacement.

This is something that has to happen. One thing I have pointed out many times with rebuilding teams is that not every prospect you bring up is going to be successful. You have to give them their time, and if they fail move on. Going back to the World Series team development, the initial SS for that group was Lenny Faedo not Greg Gagne. The original CF was Jim Eisenreich, not Kirby Puckett You have to weed out the failures (I will categorize that Jimmy Eisenreich was not a failure on the field) quickly. And to make the rebuild work you need to "glut" your prospects together (Hrbek, Laudner, Gaetti, Brunsansky, Puckett, Bush, Viola) weed out the ones that do not, find better prospects that work, and then fill in the holes with guys like Jeff Reardon and Dan Gladden. The problem with the Twins is that they are refuse to "rush" their prospects and prefer to play replacement level players in the lineup who will never be part of a core group of a rebuild. Specifically with Woods-Richardson the reason why he was DFA was he no longer had upside. I get he wasn't given much of a chance working from the bullpen, but as a failed starter the writing was on the wall. As a reliever he simply did not have enough upside to stick with the team. Of course, that only makes sense if the Twins utilize his spot on the MLB roster with a pitcher they are trying to develop in that rebuild, rather than bringing in another 31 year old waiver wire pickup special, their preferred type of guy. I wanted to make a note about Josh Bell. While I think signing over the hill players (but cheap) players is a stupid strategy for this team, I am very surprised how bad he is hitting. Josh Bell was a 110 OPS+ player last season. 100 OPS+ the year before. He has had only one season with a OPS+ under 100, that was 2020, an injury year after his All Star year in 2019. He is a career 112 OPS+ hitter. He is hitting 40 points below his career batting average, 63 points below his career OBP, and 106 points below his career slugging average. The reason why they will keep Bell is they are paying him what is for the Twins a huge contract of $7 million. There isn't any reason to dump him now and they can hope that he starts to hit better so they can dump him at the trade deadline for a team looking for a veteran switch hitting bat.

The only question that is really relevant is this (which assumes Joe Ryan remains at this level for 2026 and 2027): In the 2028 offseason are the Twins willing to sign Joe Ryan to a long term market value free agent contract? I would estimate that a model Joe Ryan market contract would be at least 5 years, $200 million. If the answer is "No, we will not sign him to that level of a contract" then the time to trade him is at or before the trade deadline. While we still have two seasons of team control, those control years are very valuable and will maximize his trade value. Each year we hold onto him pretending to compete means his trade value declines while at the same time we absorb the risk of injury degrading that trade value. Frankly, I think even if the Pohlads decide to sign Ryan to an extension in 2028, it will just be a token and they will not make similar moves to upgrade the roster.

Post Script to my above post. This "rebuild" that I projected as the correct path for the 2026 season would have also come after the Twins learned they would have the 3rd overall pick in 2026. Tanking in the rebuild would probably give the team another top 3-5 selection that they can add to their existing group of prospects, plus the prospects that you receive in any veteran trade. That the Twins chose a different path shows they are not serious and no matter what the language they present to fans, they just do not care.

I am not surprised by this and am surprised that anyone could possibly be surprised. This has been the "Twins Way" for a long time. In 2025 37 pitchers (which includes position players pitching in blowouts) pitched for the Minnesota Twins. Of those 37 pitchers, just 7 pitchers were 25 years old or younger (Woods-Richardson 24, Zebby Matthews 25, David Festa 25, Taj Bradley 24 Pierson Ohl 25 Mick Abel 23 Travis Adams 25). They were willing to try just about any 28+ waiver wire/replacement level arm without an ounce of potential they could find in the garbage bin (I don't mean anythng personally negative to these guys): Thomas Hatch, Michael Tonkin, Jose Urena, Genesis, Brooks Kriske, Erasamo Ramirez, Joey Wents, Jonah Bride, Darren MCCaughan, Noah Davis, Anthony Misiewics, Scott Blewett) not to mention Brock Stewart, Justin Topa, Danny Coulombe, Jorge Alcala, Cody Laweryson, and Randy Dobnak who at least were signed with a little bit of potential to be relievers. Think that is a fluke? In 2024 they went through 34 pitchers. 2023 just 29. But 38 in 2022. And the same thing is true with the positional players. They have a delusion which they present to the fans that they somehow have a method of developing these types of players when the end result is just miserable production after miserable production. I think some of it is based on fear. They seem to have a terrible time getting their prospects over the hurdle from the minors to the big leagues. they seem to have created a development path of producing the so called AAAA level players, players that perform well in the minors but struggle in the big leagues so they create extended delays keeping them in the minors, prefering to roster a guy like James Outman, Ryan Kreidler, Tristan Gray, or even victor Caratinin and just about everyone on the pitching staff instead of giving the PAs and IP to their young prospects. The examples are there for the pitching especially. David Festa. Zebby Matthews. Andrew Morris. It cannot be claimed that their struggles at the MLB level have been because they were rushed. Not one of them made their MLB debut earlier than 24 years of age. This was obvious before the start of the season. They should have pulled the plug and went full rebuild, trading Buxton and Ryan, perhaps others like Jeffers, at what might be their peak value rather than risk them being injured in 2026 (a major risk). Call up all of the prospects as a group, weed them out, and tank to build a winning team in the future.

Rebuild. THere is no reason to keep Rodriguez and Culpepper in AAA. In fact, there is no reason to keep Jenkins there either. Call the entire lot of prospects up. There isno chance of this team competing for anything, which was obvious to start the season. And, they should be pushing to find a trade partner for Byron Buxton, and perhaps Joe Ryan, and if there is any trade value to him, Bailey Ober. There is no sense in keeping these guys around, and the prospects we get in trade for them should be paired with the internal prospects in the rebuild.

Well, what is "optimism". In fact, I think the "optimistic" view of the Twins 2026 is disastrous. Why you may be asking? Because that simply isn't good enough. The BEST CASE scenario for this team is an 86 win season and squeaking a Central Division title our by one game and then getting destroyed in the playoffs. That is if everyone remains healthy, they get a lot of luck (for example, the other Central teams have bad seasons), every player improves, several players have career years and did I say everyone remains healthy? But that approach just sets up the band aid, low economic pretend "contenders" approach for 2027 when everything might not go perfect. If they really wanted to be contenders, then why the sell off last season at the deadline? This half way approach is not how you build a championship team on a budget. That takes investment in losing to develop the players that can make you a contender. You build the solid core of the contending franchise around your prospects you either drafted or traded for (Hrbek, Gaetti, Puckett, Gagne, Brunansky, Viola, Bush, Larkin in 1987) (mostly same core in 1991 with Knoblauch, Tapani, Erickson and Aguilera). Then add the smart additions that fill in the gaps where your prospects did not develop (Reardon, Gladden, Smalley, Bert, Reardon, Berenger in 1987) (Mack, Chili, Harpe, Jack Morris, Big Train Willis). That is the only approach to winning in Minnesota. I would add they almost did it in the Mauer-Mourneu-Hunter-Santana-Nathan years but they just could not plug enough of the gaps like the 87 and 91 team did.

This is just a continuation of the way the Twins have operated the last several years. They seem to have a major preference for replacement level players over their own developmental prospects. They have played this low budget pretend to be contenders just hoping that they can slip into the playoffs in the weakest division in baseball. It almost seems like a fear to bring their prospects up and see them fail. How many sub-200 hitters can a team roster over the years: Christian Vasquez, Mickey Gasper, James Outman, DaShawn Keirsey, Jonah Bride, Ryan Fitzgerald, our own Alan Roden, Jose Miranda, Caron McCusker (755 plate appearances in 2025) It seems like this team drools waiting for the next waiver wire player to be cast off by other teams. OOOOOOHHHH, he has a career .505 OPS!!!!! We need him. The 2026 season should have been a rebuild season from day 1. Instead, they made these half way moves and poor roster decisions in the pretense they can make the playoffs with 85 wins and pretend to the fans ownership/front office gives a .......

I am not advocating EVERY player be "rushed" to the major league level. But if you think Culpeper is a top prospect with talent then by all means especially since your roster is not competitive. It would be different if there was extreme talent and they could not get the game innings, but that is not the case. The other aspect is it isn't as if I am advocating this for a 19 year old player. Culpepper is 23. If you look at the MLB Top 100 Prospects (Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MiLB.com) look at the age that the players that have already made it to the MLB level. Trying to compete as a low payroll team is ridiculous and just prolongs the misery.

That this is a "battle" is a sad commentary on the Twins talent level and their farm team development over the past several years, and the cheapness of their ownership. That a manager has to consider two absolute bottom of the barrel players for a roster spot is damning. It would be different if the rest of the roster was stacked and this was just a decision on a specialty player. But it isnt. To me the real problem, however, is the Twins development strategies. I believe that players develop best at the major league level. I see no reason why we should be looking at these two guys on the active roster and sending Kaelen Culpepper down to the minors (just one example). Talent is talent, and if the player is truly talented they need to develop at the highest level possible. And playing time isn't an issue either. Culpepper can play every game rotating between the infielder positions (and maybe even some OF too). In the end, the only real evaluation of a player is at the Big League level. Many players have mashed the minor league circuit only to fail at the major league level. The quicker you get the read on the talent level, the better when you are developing. But the Twins constantly prefer to fool themselves that they are contenders and that these waiver wire replacement level players are what the fans deserve.

It would be very foolish to send Rodriguez back to the minor leagues. He has already proven himself at every stop in the lower leagues. Of course, the injury problem has been one of the biggest question marks against him but that issue in itself makes it imperative for him to start the season on the 25 roster. Why? Get him in action against major league pitching immediately and see how well he performs. With his very professional hitting approach he may do very well to start. But, if he is injured then you have that performance to guide his future. But if you send him to AAA to start the season and then he is hurt, it will further delay his major league debut. The Twins are just too conservative in their approach to prospects. The other issue is if we had real players ahead of him. If they keep Outman over Rodriguez after ER's spring success it is just foolish and more spinning of the wheels.

The key word is contributor. Right now if you stack Matthews, Sands, Festa, and Varland together you do not get "contributor". You get incomplete maybes. Jax was a 3rd round pick, not mid-round so he doesn't count. The only real measurable contributor has been Bailey Ober. The Twins management's ability to develop pitching has been significantly overstated.

I have a very simple rule about evaluating players: If their extra base hits are under 25% of their total hits they are going to struggle in the major leagues. I am not going to say there aren't exceptions and the corollary of the rule is not a rule (that would be if they have more than 25% of their hits go for extra bases they would NOT struggle in the major leagues). But if you do not have power major league pitchers arent going to worry about you. Such a hitter can be very selective and have a high walk rate in the lower minors but advanced pitchers are not going to walk them. Those pitchers will just blow their fastball by them not worrying about error. Houston had 6 extra base hits in the low minors out of 27 total hits last season. That is 22% of his total hits. Since he was brought up, Andrelton Simmons had 73 extra base hits out of a total 296 hits. That is 24.67% of his hits, right at the edge of the rule. But one thing that Simmons did in the major leagues was double his home run percentage of hits. He had just 7 home runs in the minors out, or 2.4% of his hits were home runs. In the majors he increased that level to 70 home runs out of 1169 hits, even though his overall MLB slugging percentage and OBP decreased about 10% from his minor league totals. I hope Marek can develop into a starting caliber shortstop for the Twins. I think, however, that his lack of power will make it very difficult to even reach the level of offensive production that can be acceptable given his defense.